UPDATED FORECAST 7-11 - SW Swell Mid Month

 Not much going on this week - background south swell dribbles and wind swell is all we have on tap.  Watching the wave models now for a potentially solid run of southwest swell starting around Tuesday of next week for So Cal/Central CA - pushing through Nor Cal next Wednesday and beyond.  Looking like we could see pretty decent 2-3ft@17-18 sec energy throughout most of the event.  Big question will be the winds right now - the northwest wind machine as slacked off some, as it does when we move into July and August - but this week at least, we still have gale forecasts up for the outer waters north of Jenner.  Winds should settle back down later this week.  More by the weekend as I'll have a better idea of the wind and wave forecast - right now it's still a bit early to be precise.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST FOR 4TH OF JULY

Large dome of high pressure is parked over CA which will continue to bring record high temps to the Central/Northern part of the state through the weekend and beyond.  Meanwhile, near the coast, very shallow marine layer should keep things cooler through the period and bring the masses to the ocean to beat the extreme heat.   Large northwest wind swell has filled in since yesterday - peaking right now at Pt Arena Buoy at 14ft@11 seconds from a very steep 330 degrees.   Should continue through the day, start to fade the rest of the week.  From the south, we have a couple of southwest swells inbound - the first a "primer" swell for Thursday into early Friday - likely to peak around 2ft@17 seconds from 190.   The 2nd swell, which is the main event - fills in slowly Friday into the weekend - likely peaking around 3ft @17-18 seconds - also from 190.   The northwest wind machine is being shut down from the extreme high pressure ridge - so after today winds should be light through the extended period - ideal for an inbound south swell to move up the coast and fill in without northwest wind or swell reducing the size.   Should be a decent weekend for south swell fans especially if you live or frequent a summer swell spot.   Happy 4th of July, be safe out there and don't be a kook that starts a fire somewhere.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 6-25

 Was back on the East Coast this past week so no report.   Back to it today.   Small South Pacific swells in the water through Thursday this week - about 2-2.5ft @14-15 seconds from 195.   Local northwest wind swell to continue through the week but on the smaller side as the wind machine as let up some over the outer waters.   South Pacific should continue to send up small pulses of swell through the period, but nothing major on the horizon.   July approaches, that's getting into winter in the Southern Hemisphere so we should begin to see some bigger and more consistent swells as the month goes by.   Until then, small surf, not so horrible winds.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 6-16

 Not much hope in the short term - we do have a new longer period southwest swell building in the next couple days - impact of that will be best from Santa Cruz to So Cal - maybe deep water heights around 2-3ft @14-17 seconds.   Something to ride on a longer board.    North of SF - it's blown to shreds as the relentless northwest winds continue to plow down the Coast - especially strong from Cape Mendo to Pt Reyes - making sure that any south swell that does make it north gets obliterated before it reaches any of the nooks and crannies in the region.   After this small south which will peak around mid week - nothing else on the charts other than wind and locally generated south swell.   La Niña summer in full effect and not providing us with much to ride.  Summer Solstice coming up this week and then the count down will begin again towards Fall.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 6-9, MORE N PAC SWELL

 New late season swell showing at the far northern buoys this morning - 7-8ft @14 from 295-300.  Swell will build all day and peak tomorrow.   This is from another storm system that followed the first storm last week.  Additionally, south swell in the water - still around 2-2.5ft@14-15sec from 210-215.   Northwest winds are blowing hard and gales are forecast for the next few days in the outer waters, some inner waters north of Jenner.  Water temps remain cold - upper 40s north of Bodega Bay, low 50s SF south.   The New Zealand storm corridor is active and we will see bouts of southwest swell from this area most of next week - nothing large - staying around 2ft @15-16 seconds with a 210-215 deg direction.  Northwest winds will howl all week so don't look for calm conditions anytime soon on the North Coast.   Large windswell will result most of the week.  The wind and swell will make a mess of these small souths coming up the Coast, and knock size down - especially once they move past Santa Cruz.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 6-2, LATE SEASON STORM

 Abnormally strong atmospheric river type system hitting the Pacific NW today and will drag a cold front through the northwest part of CA tonight through Monday.  Rain line will be about as far south as the Sonoma Coast.   Maybe a few sprinkles in Marin.   Relentless northwest winds will ease tonight, but then ratchet back up on Tuesday.   Small south swells in the water, overlapping the next few days - deepwater swell around 2-3 ft from around 180-185.  We will see a big jump in swell heights Tuesday through Thursday, inbound swell from the storm that came through.  Biggest days are Wed/Thurs - 10-12ft @11-13 seconds.    Otherwise, seas will be on the rise from all the winds coming in Tuesday through Thursday which will pick up the northwest windswell again for mid week.  Not tracking any major south in the week ahead - just wind and large-ish windswell.   Water temps are quite cold - seasonally so - low 50s SF and Santa Cruz - 48-50 north of Bodega Bay.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 5-23

 Hope you got some of the back to back southwest swells this week - most spots from Santa Cruz south faired best - Nor Cal was blown to bits with heavy wind and seas.   Swell winding down now and the weekend doesn't look all that grand unless you like northwest wind and swell.   That is pretty much all we have for the next 4-5 days with some background southern swells.   There is a new storm forecast to form Down Under near NZ over the weekend - that will send swell up by next weekend.   Happy Memorial Day and cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 5-15 - SOUTH PACIFIC STIRS......

Foggy morning on the CA Coast as summer like marine influence has set up shop.  Fading south swell and decent size north wind swell in the water.  High pressure is going build into the NE Pac/Northwest this week and the result will be strong northwest winds and large wind swell - mostly influencing conditions north of Pt Reyes through next Sunday.   Strong winds - 25-30 kts with gusts to 40 kts possible Thursday to Sunday over the outer waters.   Expect 10-14ft wind swell to develop by Friday - and this will take the piss out of the New Zealand swells on the move up especially SF north - Santa Cruz should fair nicely.  We have 3-4 swells coming up, nothing huge, but decent long period stuff from a favorable corridor Down Under with swell directions in the 210-215 window.   Probably looking for 2-3 ft deep water at 15-19 seconds starting Friday and going through Sunday.   As noted above, due to the strong northwest winds and large northwest wind swell, as these swell round Pt Conception and Pt Reyes they will degrade some as they arrive to central and northern CA.   Still, swell should be fun size at summer breaks.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 5-4 - Not a lot of hope.....

 Heavy rain and wind in Nor Cal right now - especially north of Marin County as a strong late season storm makes its way onshore.   Surf is very small - from either direction  - and the winds aren't cooperating either.  This trend of small south swell in the background will continue through the next week with maybe a bump up by mid week - especially for Santa Cruz and points south.   For Bay Area/North - look for in increase in northwest/mid period swell Sunday night into the first part of this week - swell from the current storm coming in.   Deepwater will probably go 7-8ft @12 sec - biggest Bodega Bay to the north.   Issues will be the spring time winds - once the front clears the northwest winds will come roaring back through the entire coming week.   Water temps are very cold due to all the wind - around 49F SF and 46F up on the Mendo Coast.   We are really waiting for the South Pac to open for biz, but with the transition underway from El Niño to La Niña - pattern is a bit stagnant.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATE FORECAST 4-26 - STAYING SMALL

Weak front moving through Nor Cal/Bay Area this morning bringing some light rain to the region.   Northwest winds are really going to ramp up later today behind the front with gale force winds over the outer waters forecast.   Small background south swells have been the case all week, and will continue - should see an up tick in northwest windswell over the next two days and a mid period northwest swell is forecast to come in at 4-5ft @14 seconds, but likely to just blend in with the northwest windswell dominating the nearshore waters.   Not seeing much change or improvement over the next seven days - background south to continue, strong northwest winds and localized windswell the rule.  In other words, Spring time!    Unsettled weather looks to continue on and off, with some light rain now and then, especially north of Bodega Bay.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 4-18 - FIRST DECENT SOUTH OF THE SEASON

 Early season south swell showing strong this morning and will peak later today.   So Cal deepwater a solid 4.5@17 from around 185-190 - Nor Cal is 3-4@17 from similar angle.  Winds will stay down for the next two days before turning stronger northwest again for the weekend.   Another pulse of south will fill in over the weekend, smaller than our current swell at 2@17 from 200-205.  Because this swell formed further east of New Zealand, good angle of approach for many spots in CA and sets at times might be bigger.   Go surf, cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 4-11

Last day of high pressure in control and then winter returns for the weekend.   Storm system will drop down Friday bringing rain and wind, first for far Nor Cal and then moving down the entire State through Sunday.  Mix of swells in the water today, decent size late season northwest swell around 7-9ft at 14sec from 300-305 and some local wind swell around 4-5ft@9-11 seconds.   Will have another shot of swell for the weekend from the current storm now churning in the N Pac and also watching an early season South Pacific swell inbound for the weekend.   Nothing major, but perhaps deepwater around 2@17 sec from 187 or so.  Fairly steep angle.   Winds will be tricky over the next three to four days.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 4-5

Storm system moving through CA this morning dumping heavy snow in the Sierra as well as local mountains in Central/Nor Cal.   Storm is moving south and east today and will exit tonight.  Behind it, strong north to northwest winds are howling as high pressure fills in.   Large, steep angle northwest swell has filled in - 15-17 ft @13 seconds from 310 far northern areas - showing 11@12 from 300 all the way down to Pt Conception.    Winds will remain strong all day, fading some for Sat/Sun and then ramping back up from north next week as high pressure builds further, temps warm and we get a good shot of Spring weather.   Beyond the weekend - surf will stay small to mid size with a mix of smaller mid period northwest swells and some chunky wind swell from all the wind scheduled to blow.   I   won't say winter is over yet, but the pattern is certainly slowing down as we move into the 2nd week of April.   Good chance we see some weaker systems on and off for the next month or two as the N Pac still has some decent energy in place.    Not tracking any systems from the Southern Hemisphere for the upcoming week.  Cya in the water.    

UPDATED FORECAST 3-30

 Another round of winter storms impacting the state - last in the series moving through So Cal today and exiting the region.    Behind the low pressure, high pressure will quickly build in and bring strong north winds for the next few days down the coast, further tumbling water temps in the process which are hovering around 50 in far Nor Cal and about 53 Bay Area.   Pulse of west swell is in the water around 8-10 ft @12 seconds from 280 degrees.  North to northwest winds all week, it will feel more like spring as well.   Next chance of rain appears to be late next weekend, but very light amounts.   Don't think we are quite done with the rainy season so expect some April showers.  Swell will gradually fade into mid week, with a very small south swell mid week as well - likely 2 ft @14 sec, and probably lost under all the chop from the upcoming winds.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 3-24

 Storm system sweeping through and out of CA today as winter keeps rolling on.   Expect a couple more systems to come in for the upcoming week, especially Central CA to Oregon border.  Steeper angle northwest swell in the water at 9-10ft@12 sec from 300.  Biggest north of SF.  Northwest winds will really ramp up today as the front moves out - winds 15-25knots gusting to 30 knots.  Lighter northwest winds Monday/Tuesday, then turn southwest ahead of a weather system for Wed/Thurs.  Swell fades into tomorrow then a pair of west swells come in for Tuesday and Wednesday, getting XL by Thursday when we push back up to 14-16ft.  Biggest swell north of SF as usual.   No south swell in the water this coming week but keeping an eye on storm activity in the Southern Hemisphere.   Plenty of waves, check your winds and cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 3-18

 Mostly light winds this week as high pressure remains in control through today.   Starting tomorrow and into mid week, high will push off to the east as the N Pac and Jetstream begin to re organize, bringing wet weather back to the West Coast starting Thursday for parts north of Sonoma County, and Bay Area Friday into Saturday.   Cooler temps will accompany a series of systems.   Surf wise, it's staying small for the most part - smaller long period northwest swell rolls into tonight into Tuesday - 2-4@18 sec - fattening up some for Wednesday, around 5ft @15 sec - this is deepwater swell.   Small early season south swell in the water Wednesday and Thursday - at 2ft@17 seconds.   Little tease from Down Under.  Winds turn more southwest for Thursday/Friday once the rain starts up.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 3-13

Storm track is pulling off CA - should give us a break for the next 7-10 days, as high pressure builds in over the NE Pacific, with low pressure in the Desert Southwest - forming what weather experts call "a rex block pattern" which is a very stagnant set up.   N Pacific still active but most of the energy now moves west of the Dateline.   XXL swell is hitting far Nor Cal this morning - buoys were 15-17ft @15 seconds from 305 degrees. Much smaller Central and So Cal - around 8ft@13 sec.   North/offshore winds will ramp up on Thursday due in part to the gradient difference between the low/high pressure - swell will gradually wind down into the weekend and winds will become much lighter Sat/Sun.  For sure looking like a springtime set up.   Get it while you can.   We do have some activity Down Under from the Southern Hemisphere - but much of that energy will focus on So Cal and Santa Cruz - and pretty small for the most part.   El Niño is fading, La Niña on the horizon for late year into next year - but it will take a while for all the energy created by this strong El Niño to dissipate - so some swell production in the N Pac into April/May very likely.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST FOR MARCH 7TH

Looking a lot like an early Spring pattern setting up.  Northwest winds are howling from about SF to Pt Arena. The ocean is responding accordingly with rising, large, short period wind swell and tumbling water temps due to upwelling.  The good news, short lived blow today, should ease off tomorrow (a bit).   Wind waves today north of Bodega/outer waters - 12-14ft, with a very small northwest swell lost underneath at 3-4ft @13 seconds.  Northwest winds 25-30 kts.   Wind drops to 10-15kts tomorrow as a new, mid period northwest swell comes in - but only at 4-6ft @14 seconds.  Rain returns Saturday - mostly north of SF - and will last through Monday.   Southwest winds will be on the rise Saturday/Sunday into Monday - making a mess of things.  Large Northwest swell steams in on Sunday at 12-14ft - but doubtful anything will be manageable with the wind except perhaps for Central Cal and further south.  Swell angle on most of this energy is going to be pretty steep - 300 plus degrees.   Enjoy a couple days of sun and then it's back to the wet this weekend.  Cya in the water.  

MARCH 1

 March 1st is historically the end of the "good" wave season in Northern/Central Cal.   This March, all bets are off - right now we have a macking swell inbound from a huge area of low pressure sitting and spinning in the Gulf of Alaska - which will bring the well advertised heavy snow event to the Sierra and most all higher elevations of Northern California.   Expect to see accumulations of snow even at lower elevations - below 500ft late tonight and Saturday.   Few flakes at sea level possible north of Ft Bragg.  Unfortunately for the inbound swell - brutal sw to west winds are tearing things up, so don't expect it to be clean throughout the weekend.  In fact, not really seeing much improvement in the wind through next Tuesday.  Such has been the story this winter as far as surfing goes.   Swell will stay XXL through Sunday, gradually fade into next week.   More rain on the way on and off next week as well.  Wish i  had a better forecast - but that's what we got.   Cya in the water?   

UPDATED FORECAST 2-22

It's been a wild couple weeks and I  for one was not in the water much, just dealing with storm after storm hitting the North Coast.  Finally some nice days, chance to dry out, get in the water and catch some waves.  Surf was mostly fun size today - about 4-6 ft @11 sec from 300 degrees.  New swell is inbound for Friday/Saturday - deep water 8-10ft @14 sec on Friday, gradually fading into Saturday and then another long period northwest swell runs in Sunday, 4-6@18 seconds which sticks around until Monday.   Winds look good through Sunday - light northeast to southeast.   Nice weather for the most part, but then things begin to break down again starting next week - probably about mid week on as the jet stream will once again take aim at CA.   Larger swell also comes in Tuesday at 12-14 ft, but by then the northwest winds will be chugging over the outer waters and potentially near shore making a mess of things.  For now, nice reprieve for a few days, some decent conditions and fun surf.  Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 2-10

 High pressure overhead for a few days giving us a welcome break from last week's storms.  Don't get too comfy, as the long term forecast is now showing another potentially impactful series of storms/atmospheric rivers to hit from Feb 17-23.   More on that by the middle of next week.  Surf wise, lingering northwest swell around today - 6-7@12 seconds.   New west swell builds tonight and will be nicely solid Sunday with deepwater at 8-9ft@17 seconds.  Swell direction around 296 deg.   That swell will slowly subside but linger until about Wednesday of next week.  Winds look pretty light through next Wednesday as well.  Good time to get wet if you've been out of the water for a while due to the weather.   My sense is by next Thursday things will rapidly start to deteriorate as the storm door opens and we get hit with another El Niño infused group of storms.   El Niño is on its last legs and we will start to transition back to La Niña by mid spring - but until then, plenty of energy out in the Pacific for the Jetstream to work with.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 2-1, NO SURF FOR YOU!

 In between atmospheric rivers at the moment - strong storm came ashore early Wednesday am packing very strong winds and torrential rain in spots.  Swell has come in behind the storm - running about 14-17ft from 280 degrees.  It's going to stay on the large side through the weekend, very messy with the winds blowing strongly from the south/south east for the most part until next Tuesday.   Chance of rain next couple days and then the 2nd atmospheric river comes in Sunday into Monday.  This one will take a bit more southerly track - so SF, Santa Cruz and points south will see the greatest impacts.  You might find a few moments over the next 5-7 days at certain spots depending on winds, rain, swell - but it sure doesn't look pretty!   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST, THE WEEK AHEAD....

Lull between storms today as high pressure briefly sweeps in over the region.  Swell on the small side, left overs at around 6@11sec from 285.   Winds are light.   New swell sweeps in overnight from our most recent storm - peaking tomorrow at around 8-10 ft @16 seconds from 275.  Swell will still be decent at 9-11 ft on Thursday and then slow face into the weekend.   Rain tomorrow and again on Friday.   Winds not too bad until the Friday storm when they will ramp up from the southeast again.   Beyond next weekend - forecasts calling for perhaps a very stormy period about the middle of next week with the potential for heavy rain.  Still very early but something to keep an eye on.  XL swell most likely to result with sloppy conditions.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE WEEK OF 1-15-24

 New storm to come ashore Tuesday/Wednesday this week with a brief break and then potentially a much heavier precipitation pattern headed into next weekend and beyond.  Surf will remain on the smaller side through Friday as the jet stream is displaced some to far north with high pressure hovering along the Pacific Coast stretching to the southwest.  Later this week the jet stream will consolidate once again with stronger winds coming across the Pacific, which will strengthen and fuel storm production.   Winds will be highly variable - strong south to southeast as fronts come ashore, backing to the northwest briefly Wednesday and then blowing strong from the south and southeast into next weekend.  Not seeing much of any swell above 6-8ft through the week.   Might be a good week to get some work done.   Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 1-9-24

 Storm door fairly open with moderate to heavy rain forecast for points north of Mendocino, lighter Bay Area to the south.  Look for on and off rain showers through the week.  The weekend potentially could feature a rather robust storm system depending on how things evolve over the next couple days.  A "Kona" low pressure system moving to the northwest of Hawaii is forecast to merge with a N Pac Low mid week and this combination could bring heavy rain to the West Coast.  Right now models show most of that energy going into the Pac NW and far N Cal as a blocking high pressure ridge may set up right along the CA coast.   Lots of uncertainty however in how this develops - so we wait and see.  On the surf front, plenty of swell around this week but the winds are going to be issue - waffling between southwest/west and northwest as fronts come and go.  Biggest swell of the week should come ashore Wednesday, peaking around 12-14 ft @14 seconds.   Left overs into Thursday, Friday and Saturday as surf heights stay in the 5-8ft range.  I'm not really seeing a clean day for winds through about Saturday - but some spots will be better than others based on orientation to the wind.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 1-1-24

 Storm door remains open and more XXL swells due in over the next 7-10 days.   For far Nor Cal, we will see storm systems about every 36 hour come ashore - with south wind and rain.   First storm comes in Tuesday and will exit Thursday.   Brief break, then more rain and mountain snow this coming weekend.   Big day this coming week will be Wednesday with deep water swell 14-17ft at 14 seconds.  Another West swell at 270 - all these swells in this current cycle have been big west events - given the storm track and flow across the mid latitudes of the N Pac.  Swell will drop a bit this coming Thursday to 6-8 ft and then ratchet back up Friday at 10-12 ft.   Winds really sort of a mess the rest of the week - strong south to strong west/northwest most of the week.  Next series of storms will be colder as we will be more under the influence of the Polar Jetstream and energy coming out of the N Pac.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-26

Hope you had a good Christmas.  Storm door wide open and about to unleash on California for the next few days with XXL surf (already happening), strong, storm force winds and a lot of rain.  South winds through the week - very strong at times, no let up in those winds until Saturday at the earliest.  Main swell event on tap for Thursday when deep water swell heights will peak at 18-21ft at 18 seconds - Very large and dangerous surf a result.   A few spots on the Central and North Coast that will feature some rideable waves at times.  Otherwise, hunker down and enjoy the show.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 12-20, HERE COMES EL NINO

180 Hours out, next Thursday shows a strong jet stream across the entire Pacific Basin with two troughs just digging off the West Coast - this will be a high impact event for next week, mid week on - with high surf, winds and copious amounts of rain and high elevation mountain snow.  Before then, we will see a few more weaker systems stream overhead and a new swell inbound peaking later today into tomorrow at 8-10 ft at 15-16sec from 290.  A couple more nice days coming up, with some north to northwest winds, but swell.  I'd get what you can between now and Sunday/Monday - because after that it's going to be hunker down time.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-13

 Staying on the small side for the most part with a couple mid size swells inbound for Thursday and Friday.   First pulse tomorrow will only be 4-6 ft @16 from the northwest, peaking at 5-7 ft overnight.  We will then transition over to a couple small west and southwest swells due in from a couple storms currently spinning in the N Pac.   Unfortunately those swells will combine with pretty strong southeast winds (especially from Mendocino south through the Bay Area) Friday to Sunday as a cutoff low pressure system hovers offshore sending rounds of wind and potentially some decent rain for Mendo and the Bay Area Friday through the weekend and potentially into the following week.   It will be a tricky 5-7 days coming up between the weather, wind and a couple unusual swell directions from the south/southwest which could end up being of the shorter period variety.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-6/BIG WEDNESDAY

 XXL swell in the water 18-20ft at 17-19 seconds 290-295 deg.  Winds are unfortunately a mess - blowing hard from the south or southwest depending on location - rain is falling hard from BC to Bodega Bay and pushing south through the day.   Looks pretty messy the rest of the week with the lightest winds possibly on Saturday - but we are in a stormy run and winds will alternate between south and north/northwest as fronts come and go through the week.   Today's swell will slowly fade into the weekend, but stay pretty decent sized until Friday.   My last post i  lamented "what's up El Niño," and El Niño decided to answer.....Cya in the water.   

PS - adding a new link to the forecast side - windfinder.com - you can search anywhere and get very reliable readings for things like wind, weather, surf.   check it out.  

UPDATED FORECAST 11-30

 Moderate atmospheric river to impact far N Cal, Oregon, Washington through the weekend - rain line will likely not make it south of the Mendo/Sonoma border as annoying high pressure (what's up El Niño?) - hangs around the Great Basin and NE Pacific - keeping most of the rain to our north.   From a swell production stand point, the machine is running and active as storms are lined up across the Pacific Basin.   Small northwest swell around today - about 3-5 ft, along with some wind swell on the order of 5-7ft.   Northwest winds are blowing over the outer waters, less so near shore.  New northwest swell will build in overnight becoming 6-8ft@13 seconds for Friday, along with lighter winds, small chance of rain north of Bodega Bay.  Swell fades Saturday, as a larger northwest swell fills in over the top pushing to 8-10ft for Sunday, bit smaller Monday.   Winds look light southwest/south for the weekend.   General swell direction for all these hits about 295 to 305 degrees.   Bigger swells on the menu for the first part of December - more on that next week.  Cya in the water.  

11-22, NEW UPDATE FOR REST OF THE WEEK

 First in a series of swells hitting today - 7 -8 @14 from west/northwest (285 deg) - biggest north of Bodega.  Winds for the most part are light.   Weak storm is passing overhead this afternoon - might see a shower or two north of Sonoma - the bigger story will be the north wind that builds in behind this from for tomorrow and Friday with 20-30kts forecast and higher gusts.  That will kick up a large wind swell on the order of 10-12ft - while a smaller long period northwest swell builds in underneath at 3-4@19 seconds from around 295 deg.  Another long period swell fills in for the weekend 5-6@21 seconds as the winds drop out for Saturday/Sunday - which are shaping up to be the best days over the next five or so.   

UPDATED FORECAST - THANKSGIVING WEEK

 High pressure builds in for the next 7-10 days.  We will have periods of light winds, some offshore winds, north winds through the next week.   Small west swell builds in Tuesday, around 5ft@16 seconds, while a bigger swell will take aim at the Coast on Wednesday, biggest Thursday at 8-10ft, slow fade into Friday dropping to 6-8ft.   There are some very large storms out in the Pacific right now - but they will be shunted north all week by the high pressure ridge.   Overall, should be a nice week for CA with primarily fun size surf and decent conditions depending on where you go.   Feels like as we move into December the pattern could very well change back to something much more sinister weather wise - as El Niño is in full flight and the pattern over the Pacific Basin is quite active to say the least.   A strong dip in the jet along with large storm systems and it will be game on.    Cya in the water.   

STORMIN'......UPDATED FORECAST 11-14

No surf for you!  Well actually, spots that like strong south to southeast winds might be kinda fun the next few days - but winds will be strong at times as a cut off low pressure system about 500-700 miles off Pt Reyes sits and spins (cut off from the steering jet stream winds) and pumps rounds of rain, shorter period southerly wind swell into CA.   Pattern to persist all week, a few windows with no rain but overall might be a good week to get some shit done as overall pattern looks pretty dim for good surf.   Cya doing chores and running errands.......

UPDATED FORECAST 11-8, N PAC ABOUT TO GO BOOM

 Fairly average fall surf the rest of the week, getting bigger towards the weekend and then beyond the storm door may open very wide by the middle of next week.   Winds are northwest today and staying out of a general north to northwest direction for the remainder of the week.  Next good shot of waves Friday into Saturday 6-9 ft @14 sec - biggest north of SF.   Lighter winds Sunday, bigger swell due in at 10-11 ft. After that - all eyes towards a large storm system taking up residence in the Gulf - polar jet to perhaps mingle with lower latitude jet stream winds and bring in what will be the strongest storm of this early season with potential for heavy rain, winds and mountain snows.   Large surf most likely a given, clean conditions most likely not!   This rainy pattern looks to start around Monday in the north, continuing thru about next Thursday.  As always - the devil is in the details - read the NWS Eureka and NWS Monterey/SF links for the full details over the next few days as the models come into better agreement on timing for everything.   Until then, plenty of surf to ride, just keep an eye on the winds.   Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 11-4

 As predicted, end of the week bringing a pattern change as a number of storm systems are dropping across the N Pac.   A series of swells to result.   First one due in tonight at 7-9 ft @14 seconds, peaking Sunday at 8-9ft @13.  Direction 280.  Next swell due on the heels Monday, 8-10@14 seconds.  Similar swell direction.  That swell will linger into next Wednesday.  Winds are light south to southwest through Sunday night, switching to west, then northwest mid week.   Couple chances of rain through the next 7 days, but little rainfall expected south of SF/Santa Cruz - storm track/jet stream continues to hover to our north and until we see a strong dip in that jet, we won't get much precipitation.   That will likely start to occur late November and as we move into December.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-27, waiting on a pattern change.....

Staying small through the weekend, with some pulses of south/south west swell rolling in that might provide something to ride at the summer breaks.   Very small northwest wind swell at 3-4ft @11 seconds in the water.   South swell to build to 2 ft @18-19 seconds tonight.  It's cold, as a continental airmass has settled in over the region and will get a reinforcing shot of cold air Saturday into Sunday with locally strong off shore winds perhaps making it to the coast.   Water temps have dropped back to the low 50s, bit warmer Bay Area south.    So small, windy throughout the weekend.   Keeping an eye on mid to late next week for the jet stream to reorganize, westerly winds ramp up and bring rain, wind and swell to the West Coast starting potentially mid week, but might be more like next weekend.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-23

 Staying small this week as the N Pac Jetstream re-organizes - probably see a larger pattern change after Halloween.  Until then, background south swells continue and smaller northwest and north wind swells will be in the water along with stronger north to northwest winds.   Those winds should let up some later this week.  Small chances of rain on and off this week - mostly north of Sonoma County.   A good week to get some stuff done.  Cya in the water.  

12@24 seconds.....!

Northern Buoys are bombing already early this am as a powerful long period swell builds in.  We don't see swell periods in the 24 -25sec range often but that's been showing at the Cape Mendo and Pt Arena Buoys for a few hours now.  Given how large the early forerunners, think this swell will beat the forecast size wise over the next two days.   Light winds today and tomorrow, should be some pretty epic spots. Cya in the water.  

XXL SWELL INBOUND, UPDATED FORECAST 10-17

 Solid northwest swell around today - 8-9ft @14 seconds from around 290 - biggest north of Jenner.  All eyes to mid week when swell from Extra Tropical Storm Bolevan builds in.  Forerunners after dark on Wednesday - 5-6ft @22 seconds from 295deg - jumping up quite quickly on Thursday to 13-14ft@18 seconds.  Then a gradual fade into the weekend.   Weather looks to cooperate for the most part as we have high pressure overhead and forecasted north to offshore winds.  Not sure the models are doing a good job of picking up on the locally dense fog in spots which will affect vis and wind direction - so worth keeping an eye on.   Winds will drop next Saturday, along with swell size.   Pattern changes back to low pressure overhead and slight chance of rain next weekend with a better chance the following week.   Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 10-12

Large northwest swell winding down today, but still solid at 10ft@13 north of Bodega, smaller towards OB and Santa Cruz.   Swell will continue to fade into Friday before the next round of swell arrives, first a moderate period northwest swell for early in the weekend which will peak at 8-9ft@13 and then a longer period, bigger swell potentially from Typhoon Bolaven which turned extra tropical this week and is presently streaming under the Aleutians in the Gulf of Alaska.   Classic El Niño set up in the N Pac right now with a strong jet stream zipping along 40 latitude north with 150-170kt winds feeding various low pressure systems chugging across.  Perfect set up for swell production.   Chance of rain begins on Friday north of Sonoma County and that rain may make it down only as far as Marin.   Better chance of rain area wide by early next week.   Winds north today over the outer waters as high pressure briefly moves over the area and then should remain light south to southwest through next Monday.   Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 10-9

 Storm system about to come onshore early this morning with some mid period swell behind it for Tuesday into mid week.  Winds have turned to the south/southeast and will blow from that direction until trough passage later tonight.  Winds will turn strongly from the northwest for Tuesday/Wednesday.  Small south swell in the water right now at 2.6@14 seconds.  Northwest Gulf Swell will build in quickly on Tuesday - 6-8@15 seconds from 319 (steep angle, Bay Area will be heavily shadowed) - followed by another pulse of swell mid week with a better angle (305 deg), deepwater 9-11 ft @13-14 seconds.  Winds will remain from the north to northwest until Friday, turn southwest with more rain chances headed into next weekend.  The northern branch of the jet stream is quite active now and storms are going to ripple through the strong jet all week.   No atmospheric rivers mind you, not yet at least, but a strong sign that El Niño is starting to have an impact on storm and swell production in the Pacific Basin.  Could be a wild ride once we get into the heart of the winter.   Plenty to ride this week, just need to find some protection from the winds depending on the direction.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST END SEP/EARLY OCT

 Another early season storm exiting the region this morning with strong northwest winds blowing behind the front - which will increase today and tomorrow.  Large wind swell has already responded north of Pt Arena - 10-11 ft at 9 seconds and will increase to 15 ft @10 seconds Sunday.  Winds will remain pretty gusty through Wednesday, perhaps turning a bit north to northeast through the period as another system dives into the Great Basin and creates off shore flow.  Couple more storms developing out in the Pacific with a strong jet coming off Japan creating a good environment next week for swell production.   Fall is here - but for this week looks like just periods of larger wind swell.  Waiting on this next series of storms to perhaps produce something better.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 9-22

Still some left over northwest swell from this week's large-ish northwest event.   Buoys around 6@11 this morning with light south winds.  Swell will stay small throughout the weekend with background south swell until the next swell train moves in Monday into next week - with the potential for very large surf again by next Tuesday.   An early season storm, with a possible low end atmospheric river will begin to impact the far North Coast Sunday and spread south through Tuesday.   Heavy rain will impact areas north of Mendocino, but rain will happen all the way down to SF and maybe further south.   South winds will crank up Sunday and Monday.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 9-17, FIRST REAL NW SWELL THIS COMING WEEK

 Some south swell left overs today 2ft @15 from around 200.   This will be the last day of south swell and then focus turns to incoming northwest swell train for Tuesday-Thursday.   A decent size low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska has been creating a good fetch of winds.   Swell will build overnight Monday at 8ft @16 seconds, solid on Tuesday at 8-10 ft @16 seconds as well as Wednesday 9-11ft@14 seconds.  Size holding Thursday before fading out Friday into next weekend.   Winds won't be ideal for this swell - northwest winds forecast Monday night through Thursday, veering more northerly Wed/Thurs.   Nearshore winds might not be as strong or have more of an offshore component given they will be a result of an Inside Slider type system diving into the Great Basin.   It is close to meteorological Fall - and the time of year for wind events like this.   The Pacific Jetstream is active and energetic - and we also have some chances of rain mid week next, as well as the possibility of a stronger rain even for next weekend.  So here we go!  Cya in the water! 

UPDATED FORECAST 9-11

 Jova swell fading out today.  Didn't develop as forecast for spots north of Pt Conception - likely due to the angle of approach, shorter periods and the movement of Jova quickly to the northwest.   Attention now to the South Pacific again as a new long period swell will run in mid week and beyond.  Look for forerunners  to start in So Cal Tuesday 1-2ft @19 seconds from 200, Santa Cruz Tuesday night and spots SF north, overnight Tuesday.   Period will drop and size will be more noticeable Wednesday, Thursday and Friday for spots north of Santa Cruz.   Peak deep water swell heights for the Wed-Fri period should be 2-3 ft @15-17 sec from 200.  Good for chest high & larger sets at south facing spots.   Northwest winds forecast most of the week, especially SF north - gradual decline in winds by Friday.   South facing spots will be cleaner with the northwest wind.   Nothing serious on the charts for the North Pacific yet, still waiting for the season to really start up north.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATE ON JOVA SWELL, SW FOR NEXT WEEK

 Swell from Hurricane Jova entered the So Cal waters overnight and pushing up this morning.   It's starting to show as far north as Big Sur,  deepwater swell around 3ft@14 seconds from 170.   North of Santa Cruz, SF and beyond, it's still the remnants of our old southwest swell at 2-3ft @14 from 185.  Winds mostly light, fog in along most of the Coast.  Jova swell will build all day - peaking overnight Santa Cruz/SF and then pushing up far north for Sunday/Monday.   Swell might be a bit smaller than forecast since the hurricane was moving quite quickly (even though the winds were very strong) - you typically want to see a hurricane like Jova move very slowly to the northwest in the CA swell window to maximize surf heights.  Either way - still should be some fun tropical swell around the next few days.  Spots with a good view to the south might feature some larger sets at times, tropical swells can be very unpredictable.  Next up - starting mid week - another good run of southwest swell on tap.  More on that when we start the week.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 9-7, Hurricane Jova, More South Swell mid Sept.....

 Brief pause after a very strong south swell graced our shores from last Friday through last night.   Still some energy in the water at 2.5 to 2.7 ft @15/17 seconds from 175, but will fade through the day.   Watching the movement of Hurricane Jova now, moving west/northwest underneath and away from Baja.  Storm has moved into the So Cal window and should continue into our window for the next day.    We could start to see swell from Jova as earlier as Saturday.   Right now models are showing the potential for steep angle south 2-4 ft @16 sec late Saturday, pushing up to 4-6 ft@12-14 sec on Sunday.   This will likely be 170 deg or steeper.  Everything depends on the track right now.   Good bet most of the CA Coast will see action and spots with good exposure to the south will obviously pick up the most swell.   One to watch for sure.  Northwest winds will ramp up again over the outer waters for the next 4-5 days, hard to say right now how much mixes into the inner waters, given the fog and ongoing light southerly flow.   Beyond all this - the South Pacific is now very active and looking at the potential for some strong south swells Mid September and beyond while we wait for the North Pacific to really wake up.   El Niño is most certainly having an impact on the S Pac now and the Tropics, we will see what that means for our winter surf.   Cya in the water.  

SOLID

First pulse of strong south swell peaking at 3-4 ft @18-20 seconds - swell is over performing based on what was modeled a few days ago.  We also have our first legitimate northwest swell of the season - showing at the far northern buoys - 6-7 ft @17 seconds.  Winds are light - go surf.  Cya in the water.  

SEPTEMBER 1

Welcome to the 2023/2024 Fall/Winter Surf Season.   Made it through another summer.   Strong run of south swell just starting to hit most of the CA buoys this morning, although not so much yet above SF.   Long period fore runners 3-4 ft @18-20 seconds from 180-200.   North wind swell above Bodega Bay - 5-6ft @9 seconds.  The long period northwest swell that was on the models a few days ago didn't materialize for today.    Northwest winds over the outer waters should start to ease up today and remain south through Sunday - on the lighter side.  Winds look to pick up again Monday as low pressure exits the region and high pressure briefly builds back in.  Rain, showers in the forecast from Sonoma County north - heaviest far Nor Cal.   Enjoy the next week of south swell.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND

 Gale warnings up through Thursday AM as strong high pressure is creating north winds over the outer waters.   Have not really seen the buoys respond to the wind swell forecasts, possibly because the heaviest winds are over land.  On the horizon we have a long period west/north swell due in and long period southeast swell for the rest of the week.  The west swell should be in late Thursday night, Friday - deepwater possible at 2-4 ft @19 seconds - biggest north of Bodega.  The south will roll in first late Thursday Santa Cruz south, then Bay Area and further north Friday into the weekend and beyond, couple pulses of this swell coming.  Potentially looking at 3 ft @19 seconds, good south facing breaks should be head high plus on sets.   We could see the south swell action linger on to around the 7th of Sept.  Winds will dial back into the weekend and switch from the south, we also have a early season weather system coming in which will bring rain to far northern CA, with chance amounts down to around Sonoma County.   Water temps have plummeted back into the low 50s with all this wind over the past week.   Cya in the water.  

SLEEPER SOUTH.....

New southeast New Zealand swell filled in today, came in bigger than most models forecasted - 3-4@17 sec - deepwater from 184.   Swell should stick around through Monday.   Winds are forecast to veer northwest over the weekend - but with the fog bank sticking around, near shore winds potentially light in the am's and then picking up in the afternoons as fog pulls back.   More south swell on the charts for early September and waiting on the N Pacific to get going.   Cya in the water. 

HILARY SWELL FIZZLES.....

Quick update on Hilary swell - never really made it around Pt Conception - and what did is passing by the rest of CA short of a few dribbles for Santa Cruz.    Good size wind swell is tracking into Nor CA waters this am 8-11ft at 10 sec, steep angle - 320 plus.   Watching a couple more smaller south swells for mid to late week.   More to come, cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST - HURRICANE HILARY

New shorter period Gulf/Wind swell showing north of Jenner this morning - 8-10ft @9-10 seconds, steep angle - 315 plus degrees.  Most of this swell will by pass spots south of Bodega Bay.  All eyes to the south as Hurricane Hilary makes its approach.  LA has its first ever Tropical Storm Warning hoisted and Hilary will be the first tropical system to make land fall to our south since 1939!   But what about swell for Central/Nor Cal?   Because the storm is hugging Baja and the strongest winds are on the East side of the system, super steep angled southerly swell will begin to migrate north through the weekend.   I'm talking super steep - 150-165 degrees which will miss most of our coast.   However, given the size of the storm and sea heights, good south swell spots will no doubt pull in some energy Sunday night through Tuesday morning.   How big, hard to say just yet - certainly So Cal will be quite large at times but also very windy/stormy.  For us, Monday looks like the best day, deep water potentially going 3-5 ft @ 14-16 seconds.    Heavy rain to our south with major flooding looks likely, some potential for rain Santa Cruz north to Pt Arena, but very light amounts.  Bigger issue will be potential for thunderstorms and more dry lightening which has sparked a whole host of fires in Trinity, Humboldt and Del Norte counties.   Very dynamic period coming up - especially with a low pressure system parked off the West Coast due to move ashore, Hilary and a steering ridge of high pressure to our east.  Water temps very warm upper 50s to low 60s - last cold water remnants of La Niña are gone.  The Papa Buoy, (600nm from Eureka) one of the offshore buoys has stopped reporting this past week - so NOAA will have to pull and repair at some point.   Be a bummer to have that off line as fall/winter starts as it's a reliable indicator of the size of incoming swell trains.  Cya in the water!  

UPDATED FORECAST - 8-16

 Interesting forecast for the next week or so.  First off, the N Pac is active and we will have another shot of shorter period, good size wind swell starting Friday - lasting into Sunday - deep water from 6-11ft - larger north of Bodega Bay.   N winds tick back up starting Friday night, lasting through Sunday.   South swell fades some Thursday, then ticks back up Friday to Sunday which might include some hurricane swell from a Hurricane Fernanda which is about 900 miles south of San Diego.   There is a bigger tropical system likely turning into a hurricane over the next 24 hours which will track right up Baja (parallel to Baja) starting Monday 8-21.   The first tropical swell from Fernanda will just mix in with existing southern hemisphere swells to give things a boost - that 2nd tropical swell, if it develops as forecast - could end up being pretty solid if it gets some good purchase over the open ocean and climbs in the CA swell window.   Better idea on that by the weekend.   With El Niño fully pushing now i  expect the remainder of the East Pacific Hurricane season will be quite active.   Get some, cya in the water.  

FIRST NORTHWEST SWELL OF THE SEASON.....

 Very early northwest swell is slowly filling in this morning - coming in a bit bigger than models had forecast - 7-8ft @13-14 seconds from 299.   Smaller south of Bodega Bay at the moment - 3-4 ft.   Meanwhile, New Zealand South Swell keeps giving - 2.2 ft @17 from 200.  Look for very light winds today through Thursday as high pressure is overhead - with an uptick towards some northwest winds this coming weekend, but that might be overdone, or at least staying over the outer waters.   Sure looking and feeling a lot like early fall!   South swell should stick around most of the week.   Northwest swell to slow fade into Wednesday and then might see another pulse by next Saturday.   Keeping an eye on a Hurricane Fernanda which is moving into our swell window to the north & west of Baja with sustained winds of 95kts and gusts to 110kts.   Could see some steep angle swell from that system mid to late week.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 8-11

 Screenshot from of an early season storm moving through the Gulf of Alaska - which is going to give us a pulse of northwest swell early next week.  Will be on the small side, mid period - likely deepwater swell 4-5ft at 13sec from 307 deg.   Not unusual to see storm activity in mid August with a building El Niño, a sign of things to come most likely.   Until then, waiting for a southwest New Zealand swell to hit the coastal waters later today (south) and most likely through the day on Saturday from Santa Cruz north.   Still expect that swell to be around 2-3 ft (deep water) periods 16-17 sec to start and leveling off 14-15 sec from 220 deg.  Winds may flex a bit from the northwest today and tonight - north of Bodega, but then settle in everywhere on the light side through Tuesday.   We may be coming to a point where we see the departure of the northwest winds for good, especially if we quickly transition to a fall set up with incoming systems to the northwest and offshore flow.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 8-8 - EL NINO MACHINE BEGINS AGAIN......

 The large scale mechanics of a building El Niño, stalled for a few weeks, has rapidly started up again in the Pacific.   Sea surface temps (SSTs) are warming quickly in two key regions that weather forecasters use to predict the strength of an El Niño - Nino 1.2 and Nino 3.4.   Storm production in theory should pick up and we do have a new storm in the Southeast Pacific sending a swell up for late week as well as a very interesting storm forecast in the North Pacific resulting in swell building potentially late next weekend into the following week.   While the activity in the South Pacific looks to continue to ramp up through late August, the building El Niño might just launch us right into fall swells for CA.   Look for this New Zealand south swell to start showing late Thursday, but best and biggest Friday through Sunday.   Nothing epic, but that corridor down under is usually a good direction for us - 210-220 deg.  Deep water swell should max around 2-2.5ft.   Winds look to wind down some through the week, which might help the swell hold together as it comes around Pt Conception for points north on the CA coast.   More on the Gulf action later this week as the storm comes together.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 8-3 - first hints of new south showing

 Don't get overly excited, but seeing some forerunners of a new south starting to build offshore at 2-3@20 seconds, from 200 plus degrees.   This is a swell that developed in the Tasman Sea and should provide a bit of relief over the next few days and a couple pulses run in and overlap.   Probably won't see anything over 2-3ft at the outer buoys, so it's small wave gear material for sure.   The El Niño pump has now restarted - so it will be interesting to see what develops over the next few weeks.   Wind wise for us the next few days - more of the same - northwest blows each day - small craft advisory up through late Friday - so breezy, but south facing spots will be more protected from the wind.   Cya in the water.  

AUGUST 1

 Late summer, September will be here soon enough.  We are waiting for the very large global ocean and air mechanisms, in this case El Niño, to shift into high gear and prime the pumps for swell production for the southern hemisphere spring and the northern hemisphere fall.   Until that starts to happen, and seeing signs of it now, we won't have much to ride in CA for the next week or more.  We are also locked in this low pressure bias in the N Pac and very strong high pressure ridge to our east over the southwest US - which is just enough of a tug of war to keep strong northwest winds in check, just enough to mess up the surf but not enough to create the usual summer wind swell pattern we get on the north coast.  Large pool of cold water off CA and Baja, remnants of La Niña are showing signs of retreat, once that is gone surface temps in almost the entire Pacific Basin will be warm to very warm.   Watch and wait, cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 7-29 - not much change, small south......

 Small surf, marginal conditions continue.  We do have a south swell in the water this weekend and will stay in the background through mid week - but don't expect anything over 2-3ft (deep water).  Some buoys are showing 3@14 this am, Cape Mendo and then points south.  With the incoming tide, spots that can pull in this small swell might be ok as the winds are fairly light right now near shore.  We are waiting for the El Niño pump to re start in early August - which should start to fuel storm production in the southern hemisphere again and perhaps up north.   Until then, get what you can.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 7-22 - No surf for you.

 Golf, hiking, fishing, riding a bike, working in your garden, traveling someplace that actually has surf - these are things you can do in the summer when you have no surf around your local spots - which is what we have had now for quite a while and looks to continue for the foreseeable future.  We are waiting for the El Niño pump to start up again - it's been on pause for two/three weeks - but looks to push again starting Early August - which will hopefully start up storm production Down Under and perhaps start to fuel activity towards the N Pac for early fall.   Until all that - its northwest winds and crappy short period wind swell.   The winds over the outer waters are just enough to mess up everything but not strong enough or sustained enough to generate some larger wind swell (over 10ft ideal) for any kind of rideable waves near shore.   So, we wait.   Hang in there, August around the corner and September beyond.   Cya in the garden.  

UPDATED FORECAST - MAYBE SOME WIND SWELL HOPE INTO THE WEEKEND......

Not much on the charts right now from the S Pac or N Pac.  The South Pacific is basically asleep with blocking high pressure down under preventing storms from getting any traction over the open ocean.  Minimal background south swell to continue and might tick up a notch by this weekend as the storm corridor between New Zealand and South America remains barely open.   Up around our parts, the N Pac is under high pressure for the most part, although small systems continue to drift over the top of the ridge to the far north.   But none of these systems are generating swell.  We will have very strong northwest winds the rest of the week over the northern outer waters and that should generate some larger wind swell by Friday and Saturday with deep water heights reaching 8-10 feet Friday, 9-11 ft on Saturday.  As such, some low period wind swell should propagate into the inner waters this weekend - but biggest north of Bodega Bay.   SF/Bay Area likely to be an ugly mess with the winds.  The one wild card is the heat wave coming that might suppress winds near shore.  That would be most likely for Saturday/Sunday.  Get what you can, it's almost September, see you in the water.   

4TH OF JULY WEEKEND FORECAST.....

Friday morning - mini south swell dribbles and some short period steep angle wind swell around 6-7 ft at 8 seconds - not pretty stuff.  Our only hope for the next 4-5 days is just more wind swell - which should increase in size over the weekend as the northwest wind machine is going to crank up over the northern outer waters through the 4th.   As a result - look for wind swell to increase in size to 8-10 ft Saturday, 7-9ft on Sunday when the period gets to around 10 secs.   Biggest north of SF.   Overall it's going to be windy at the coast, with fog, hot inland - typical July summer weather for Nor Cal.   Tropics are active down around Mexico with Hurricane Adrian and Tropical Storm Beatriz.   At this time neither is a swell maker for Nor Cal as the angle is too steep and tucked under Baja.  Trip to Cabo right now would be the call.  Get what you can - only two more months until Sept.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 6-24- STAYING SMALL

 Not much going on right now - dog days - very small wind swell, background southern hemisphere - looks to be the norm for a while.  Good time to hit the beach breaks, mow, go fishing, take a trip where there are waves.   On a positive note, Summer Solstice has passed, moving back a day at time now towards Fall and an El Niño infused surf season.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 6-16 - WINDS TO CRANK UP

 Another relatively decent wind day ahead on Friday and then things change for the weekend and beyond as a very deep and unseasonable low pressure system drops out of the Gulf of AK into the Pac NW and far Nor Cal.  Northwest winds will really crank up tonight with gusts to 45kts and sustained winds on Sat/Sun look to be 20-25kts with gusts to 40-45kt.  This is mostly the northern outer waters, but expect pretty blustery conditions along the coast and inland.   Winds of this strength will ramp up the wind swell, which will be the dominant source of waves.   Look for wind waves 9-10 ft through Sunday.   Background south at 2ft - but hardly noticeable north of Santa Cruz.   Fog remains an issue up and down the coast and as long as we're in this low pressure regime - don't look for it to clear much anytime soon.  In fact the next week or so will be unseasonably cool.  Might even see some snow showers over the Shasta/Trinity region and the Northern Sierra.  Is this summer odd, it is somewhat, but we are also heading into an El Niño fall/winter - low pressure the rule in the Pacific - typhoons already recurving from the far West Pac into the Gulf - in June - which is not something we normally see until late Aug or Early September.  There is a lot of energy already in the Pacific Basin - warm air, warm water - that leads to more rain, strong low pressure - probably some very large surf this fall.   Stay tuned.  Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 6-9 - SLOW DOWN IN SWELL.....

South swell fading tonight - 2-3ft at 13-14 seconds, dribbling in compared to the past couple days.  Hope you got some this week as it's going to get a bit weak over the next 5-7 days with minor south pulses and some minimal windswell.   We are suppose to see a tiny northwest swell at 2-3 ft at 15 seconds starting Saturday.   In fact the West Oregon Buoy is showing 5-6 ft at 14 seconds from the northwest - so there is a small pulse from that northern direction.  Northwest winds crank up tonight through the weekend, so if you live by a spot that likes some northwest wind swell you might have some better options through the period.  Winds let up briefly on Monday, then back on thereafter.   The nice run of winds and good waves behind us for a while.   Weather wise - looking and feeling very much like an El Niño summer - low pressure lurking about, muggy at times, but also still quite cool by June standards in CA.   In fact, El Niño is already starting to have an influence over the far West Pacific as two typhoons have now both recurved and tracked north and east into the Gulf of Alaska - in June - something you don't usually see until late summer/early fall.  It appears we might be heading for a very strong El Niño for the 2023/2024 Season.   Stay tuned.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 6-5 - WINDS EASE....

Northwest winds should leave us this week as low pressure currently off the So Cal/Central Cal Coast spins turning the winds counter clockwise or south to southeast for us.  Chance of showers will be hit and miss all week - mostly inland.  Fog is back and will stick around as long as the flow is south.   Windswell still in the water this AM - 8-9ft at 11 seconds from 320-330 - - really steep - and south swell in the water 2-3 ft at 15-17 seconds from 175.  Pulses of south swell all week as the wind swell takes a back seat (due to lack of high pressure gradient creating winds in the outer waters).    Northwest winds look to return by Friday but much lighter than last week - only 10-15 kts.   Cya in the water.    

UPDATED FORECAST - 5-29

Happy Memorial Day Weekend.   Old south is fading out while a new southwest swell is slowly filling in. So Cal buoys picking up on this energy - about 2-3 ft at 20 seconds.  Showing as far north as the SF Bar Buoy - picking up 4ft at 20 seconds from 200 plus deg.   Swell will get up towards Pt Arena overnight and should be hitting the entire coast by late Sunday morning.   North of Bodega lot of northwest windswell in the water - 7-8ft @9 sec from 315 plus.   Winds are mostly northwest over the outer waters and some nearshore waters - the winds will turn southeast again for Monday - 10-15 kts with stronger gusts as we get a southerly wind reversal - which will bring in even more fog for Monday morning - not like we haven't had enough as it is already.   Low pressure system is dropping down the State, kicking up thunderstorms over the interior & Sierra, some of these might make it to the Mendocino Coast late today.  Southwest swell looks to stick around through Wednesday right now.   Winds should veer back to the northwest Tuesday on.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 5-22

 Strong northwest winds have been blowing over the outer waters for the past 48 hours and will continue to do so for the next 48 hours.  As a result, wind swell has come up 9-14 ft at 8-10 seconds, biggest north of Bodega Bay.   Very steep angle due to the wind direction, 325 deg, so for tucked away spots very small surf will result.  Wind swell will peak in size Tuesday/Wednesday - 10-13 ft @11 seconds.   So it's something to ride.   South swell stays on the smaller side all week, but we will see pulses all week, building some into Thursday/Friday as a somewhat larger southeast swell builds in from about 195-200 deg.   Don't expect any of these souths to be like the last run - most likely staying around 2 ft with 17-20 sec period.   No real break all week in the winds until about Friday, and even then only forecast to drop to 10-15 knots.   Late Spring, it's all going as planned.   The only other change in the weather this week will be cooler temps region wide, as a low pressure system hangs out, chance of some showers in the mountains and ongoing fog.  No big warm up expected.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 5-17 - Solid run of south swell to continue

 Buoys showing deepwater around 3ft @17 which will continue today, heading up some tonight and tomorrow to 3-4@19-20 seconds!   Unfortunately northwest winds will crank back up with small craft advisory level winds for most of the Coast through the weekend.  Look for the south swell to stick around through the weekend, gradual fade of energy.    

UPDATED FORECAST 5-13, Gulf Swell, more South

 N Pac swell just showing at outer buoys - 7-8ft @14.   Mixed in some wind swell in the 7 sec range and south swell continuing at 2.9@14.   South fades some today before a new pulse of south swell starts to build in Sunday.   N Pac swell will gradually fade into Monday, but still decent on Sunday.   Winds light right now but will push strong from the northwest again later today.  It is Spring after all and it wouldn't be Nor Cal without a fresh northwest wind.   Hot inland today, seasonable at the coast.  Wind reversal tomorrow will start to slow the heat wave some, with light south winds building through the day, continuing into Monday.   Winds head back to the northwest by Tuesday.   South swell run looks to continue into next week as well.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 5-5, RUN OF SOUTHWEST SWELL

 Clean conditions to start the day in between late season storms.   New long period southwest swell is filling in - about 2ft at 18sec from 215.   Northwest swell from the past two days is fading at 4-5ft @13sec.  Look for the southwest swell to continue through weekend and into the first part of next week with long period wave heights staying around 2-3 ft.   Fairly light west to south winds today & tomorrow, then more southwest wind on Sunday turning northwest again on Tuesday - as we have a couple more small rain makers set to come through the region.   Rain later today, spreading south and then again on Monday.   South Pacific is for sure turning on so expect things to continue to pick up through the end of May.  Should see less activity from the N Pac, but given the energy out there and El Niño in development, would not be surprised by a few more very off season pulses of northwest swell.   Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 4-29 - FIRST SOUTH OF SEASON

 First run of south swells mid stream right now - long period swell 2-4ft at 17-19 seconds from 175-185.   Winds are light south, but light northwest above Bodega Bay.   Northwest winds will ramp up through the weekend and south swell will gradually fade towards Monday.  Before that, a large off season northwest swell will build in Sunday night - 8-10 ft at 16 seconds, swell continues Monday at 9-10ft at 14 seconds and still solid Tuesday at 8-10 ft, before a slow fade about Wednesday.  Winds may start to drop again by Monday/Tuesday - lot of variability right now with the wind forecast due to high pressure leaving the region being replaced by a low pressure system which will impact our weather most of next week with cooler temps and some bouts of very light rain forecast.   All n' all, plenty of waves, check the winds and cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST - APR 23

Appears that winter is finally over - strong northwest winds and meager swell the rule of late.  Some hope this coming week with a couple small northwest swells to overlap and then a fun size pulse of south swell for next weekend.  Early indications the south will feature deep water heights 2-3ft from around 200 deg.   Northwest swell Monday/Tuesday - 3-5 ft at 12-14 secs.   Strong northwest winds through about Thursday, then winds might lighten up some just in time to let the south work its way up the Coast.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST APRIL 16TH

 Small northwest swell filling in this afternoon - 5-6@14.   Winds aren't ideal, they will be better tomorrow for morning sessions.  Swell will thicken up a bit - 6@13 sec.   Incoming storm system will generate rain north of Sonoma County - none expected for the Bay Area.   Northwest swell picks up more on Tuesday - 10-12@13, 7-8 ft@12 on Wednesday - then fading the rest of the week.   Winds don't really look that bad until next Thursday when the northwest wind machine ramps up again.  It is spring after all! Something to ride at least - cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST - APRIL 9

Light winds, nice weather on tap today and tomorrow with inbound swell.   Starting to see that swell at the outer buoys this am - 9-10 ft @14 seconds.  Swell will roll in mid day north of Bodega Bay, by late afternoon/early evening Bay Area.   Winds should remain light all day, although Bay Area spots will see an onshore sea breeze pick up later afternoon.   Swell looks to stick around through Tuesday at 7-8 ft at 13 seconds.   Northwest winds will pick up Tuesday and look to blow through the extended as high pressure builds over the region.   Rain staying to the far north for now, while models hint at a very weak system by this time next week.   Spring has finally arrived, but I'd say expect on and off showers through the month of April as the pattern remains favorable and the high pressure bias we've seen over the past years is not as strong.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST - LATE MARCH

 Today and tomorrow will feature sunshine before the next weather system moves in for the weekend.   This upcoming storm won't be that strong, just more showers on and off Sat/Sun.   Beyond that the pattern stays unsettled into the first week in April and perhaps a bit more into the month before I'm starting to perhaps see a start to more spring like weather for CA.   Surf looks to stay pretty small with mixed swells from the northwest and some south swell.   Today the northwest is only around 5@11,  with trace of long period south from 180 degrees but probably not noticeable at 0.8 ft @20.  That south is forecast to get to 2@16 by Saturday.   NW winds today over the outer waters, might be lighter near shore.   Winds turn south tomorrow and Saturday as the next storm arrives - but remaining pretty light.   NW winds return behind the front Sunday, Monday and beyond with an uptick in northwest swell 6-8 ft by Monday.   Pretty much looking like spring time surf conditions/wave heights.   We might still see some swell from the N Pac as i  think the pattern will remain very active well into April and perhaps May as El Niño builds, but best to start keeping an eye on the S Pac now to see if we get some early season swells.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - MID MARCH

 Surf remains on the very small side through the weekend.   Light winds today, turning strong south/southeast tonight into Sunday as a storm system comes ashore bringing widespread rain from Santa Cruz to Pt Arena.   Surf is going to stay small through the weekend unfortunately and don't see much increase until mid week when a modest west swell fills in - likely only 7-9 ft, longer period on Wednesday.     North to northwest winds will increase behind the front next week and on and off rain showers seem possible, but no flooding issues.   Winter not done yet, but for sure looking and feeling like spring time surf.   Small wave gear for sure.   Cya in the water.   

MARCH

March 1 is usually the end of the "good" waves season for Nor Cal.   No different this March, but we do have XL surf today 9-12 ft @14 sec from 310-320 - steep angle due in most part to the long fetch of north/northwest wind behind this front currently hitting CA.   Overall the pattern stays wet with junky south to southwest to west winds through the next week.   Swell will trend down after Monday night, staying mid size through Thursday.   On and off rain in the forecast and if you read the NOAA forecasts the models are starting to hint at another series of AR (atmospheric river) events starting March 10/11.   La Niña is dead.  The Active MJO is flexing and the Pacific has more tricks ahead for us before we see the end of this epic winter season for weather.  So, there will be waves around - not ideal, but stuff to ride if you know where to look.  Cya in the water!  

UPDATED FORECAST FEB 25

 Impressive winter storm over the past few days dropped snow to the coast north of Pt Arena, folks skiing on Mt Tam and everywhere record snowfall totals for places not accustomed to seeing any snow at all.  The pattern that has set up out in the Pacific is conducive to a lot more weather into the first week of March and probably beyond - but will it also generate surf?  For the most part yes, but with steeper angled northwest swells due in part to low pressure being anchored further up in the NE Pacific.   We still have some residual swell from this past event at 8-10ft this am - with light winds nearshore.   Winds will pick up later today.   Winds do look highly variable the next 5-7 days with rain, passing fronts, strong south winds in advance at times and strong nw winds behind.   Swell looks to crank back up Monday 12-15 ft (larger north of Bodega) and Tuesday, fading some into Wednesday but still solid.  La Niña is gone and we  are headed to El Niño late year.   My sense reading the tea leaves, very wet spring to come with a lot of wind and a very warm summer ahead.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST FEB 16TH

 South winds blowing on most of the Coast today as a storm system is circulating just off the West Coast due to move south and inland starting Friday.   Minimal rain chances except along the immediate coastline as the main movement of the storm will be to the south.   New long period swell will build overnight 4-6 ft @ 19 seconds while an older northwest swell fades 3-4 @12 seconds.  Swell direction around 300 degrees.   Winds will shift strongly to the north through the holiday weekend - creating large windswell of 11-13ft by Monday/Tuesday.   Background, smaller northwest swells linger through the next five days or so.   These will all be longer period northwest swells.    Late next week, pattern could see a major shift out in the Pacific as the jetstream looks to get robust coming off Japan at 200kt - this should support storm development as well as a rainy pattern again potentially for CA.    La Niña has faded, we are in ENSO neutral now moving towards El Niño later this year (summer).   Will be interesting to see if we have a late winter run of weather and swell that holds into April and May.   All will be revealed over the next couple weeks!  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST FEB 6

 Windy start to the week, but things will settle down mid week as high pressure builds in.   AM sessions might see some offshore winds, especially around the Bay Area.   Swell jumped up overnight and is around 14ft @ 14 seconds from 300.   Bigger than forecast.   North winds blowing over the outer waters and near shore in spots along the coast.   Swell will gradually fade overnight but a new long period northwest swell will build in on Tuesday - peaking Tuesday PM/Wednesday AM at 8-9ft @16 seconds.   That swell fades Thursday and another builds in on Friday.   Lightest winds for midweek, but it will be a bit breezy everywhere.   Plenty of swell around, just have to know your spots.   Rain might come back into the picture next weekend.   Out around the 19th of Feb, things might get interesting with our weather as the jet stream organizes and gets charged by the Active MJO.    Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 1-26

Super clean conditions the past few days with today and tomorrow likely the best to come for a while as the pattern will shift back this weekend to low pressure driven - with a system dropping south out of BC over the weekend with strong winds, light rain and low elevation snow.   Current swell has dropped overnight - but still super fun size 7@14 seconds.  Winds are offshore.  Tonight - another smaller, long period swell from the west will build in - 2-4ft@21 seconds and build to 4-5ft @18 on Friday.   Northwest winds will be on the rise all day Friday and get quite strong over the weekend - especially north of Pt Reyes.  Swell will stay small size at 5@15 - with some larger wind swell building in all weekend.   It does look like we will transition back to a stormy pattern sometime in early February - not like the Mid January events - just regular winter weather for Nor Cal.   So get it today and maybe tomorrow, then you'll be back into less clean environs into next week.  Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 1-17

 Well, that was an interesting 10 days or so!   Storm track will send one more pulse our way on Wednesday and then high pressure builds in for the next 7-10 days.   Surf will stay on the larger side through the week with winds gradually changing over to north and northwest, cold mornings and seasonable afternoons.  After all this rain there should be some good sand bars up and down the coast at spots that normally don't feature a decent wave.   Winter is not even close to over and long term models show us with more wet weather through the season as La Niña is fading and we start to transition to El Niño late this year.  Should be an interesting time.   Check the winds this week, plenty of swell around.  Cya in the water.  

STORMAGGEDON......

 This is one big, dynamic storm system headed our way for tomorrow into Thursday.   Take this system seriously as it's going to pack a punch.  Besides long period storm surf along the lines of 22-25 ft at 17 seconds on Wednesday - heavy rain, big time winds, combined with all the recent rain and wet soils will really create some potential problems from the King Range south through Carmel.   Check the NWS links on my blog for Eureka and Monterey/SF.  As for surfing - I'm sure there will be a few spots going off and working, guess it depends on how eager you are to surf!    Rain and wind, big swell looks to continue through Mid January.  Winter is back in CA as La Niña exits the stage - thankfully.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST FOR NEW YEARS WEEKEND

Storm door is open and going to continue to dump rain on us through first week of January.  Swell has come down but still quite solid this am at 10ft @12 seconds.  Swell will drop further Friday to 7-9ft and then crank back up quickly Friday night into Saturday at 10-13ft at 15 seconds, building further Saturday at 12-14 ft at 14 seconds.  Swell direction through the period mostly west at 280 to 300 degrees.  Winds will go west to northwest strongly over the weekend with rain, heavy at times through Monday.   South to southwest winds the norm until Saturday night.  Spots that like south wind and northwest wind the call.   Plenty of swell around, tricky with all the wind, rain and swell.   Winter!   Happy New Year and cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-21 - HAPPY WINTER SOLSTICE!

 Another clean, but small morning - west swell around 2-4 ft at 14-15 seconds.  Winds are light northeast to east.   King Tides coming up this Friday and Saturday so plan your sessions accordingly!   We will see an increase in west swell tonight, 2-3 ft @19 seconds, filling in on Thursday to 4ft@17 seconds.   Bit more swell coming Friday as size gets up to 5-7ft at 14 seconds.   These smaller west swells mostly 270-280 degrees.   The next real swell starts Christmas Day - where we could see swell heights jump back into the 10-12ft range.   If you look at the long range models - all are now starting to lean into a very stormy post Christmas week into the first part of January - as the jet stream is going to do something it's not done in a few winters - consolidate all the way across the Pacific east to west - around 35north - with copious amounts of rain potentially as a atmospheric river sets up somewhere between N Cal and Oregon.   Certainly spots north of Sonoma have the potential to see a lot of weather, but Bay Area/Central Cal should get in on the action as well.   A lot of messy, large storm surf will probably result - so enjoy the next 3-5 days as winds will be relatively light with increasing swell.   We need the rain and high elevation snow so it's good to see on the horizon.  Happy Holidays and cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-12

XL northwest swell peaked overnight - around 17-18 ft with long periods at buoys north of Jenner.   Large, at times clean, swell roared in and is starting a gradual downward trend today but still solid this morning at 14ft @14 seconds.  Like many of the swells so far this season - fairly steep angle at 315 degrees which for SF will be shadowed some by Pt Reyes.   North of Pt Reyes, not as much.    The trend this week will be for declining swell - back into the fun zone with ideal winds setting up most of the week up and down the coast as high pressure/blocking high establishes itself over the region.  This will also shunt the storm track to the north through at least next weekend giving us no rain for the next 7 days.   It will be very cold all week, with light winds and water temps will remain on the chilly side.   Cya in the water!  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-2

 Back to back swells through about Monday will keep surf in the overhead to well overhead range.   Bigger north of Bodega Bay.  Tomorrow a new storm system comes in bringing rain and south winds to the region.   SW winds through Sunday turning west on Monday.  Not ideal.  Much lighter winds forecast from Tuesday on - but also not much swell either as we will be between systems and storm producing events in the N Pac.  I'm off next week - back on Dec 10, resume forecasts after.   Cya in the water!

THANKSGIVING FORECAST

Happy Thanksgiving.  Northwest swell left overs today 4-6 ft at 13 sec and some south in the water 2ft at 15.  Northwest swell direction about 295.  South 185.  Large long period west swell has been hitting the Papa Buoy since around 9pm last night.   Looks like it peaked around 20-23 ft at 17 sec - quite solid.  That is the swell for late tonight and Friday - which will equal double overhead and bigger waves at north/west facing beaches, reefs and points.  Winds pretty light today and tomorrow - then might pick up strongly though the weekend as a few weak weather systems move through the region as high pressure exits.  A week ago it looked like we might get a lot of rain and snow this coming week - but models have trended drier with each run.   Probably going to see some rain - especially north of the Bay Area - Sunday night into Monday and then again mid week.  Either way - plenty of surf on tap for the next 4-5 days.  Biggest wild card through the period will be wind direction.   Get some and cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 11-17

Mid size long period swell filling in today - 5-8ft at 15-16 seconds.  From around 295 deg.  Mostly clean conditions and small to mid size swell through Monday.   Bit of an uptick in winds tonight into Friday - might be offshore at the coast - light winds through weekend.   Could be transitioning back to a wet period early next week so get on it while we have this nice break in the weather.  Cya in the water.   

NEXT LARGE SWELL IN THE CUE....

Papa Buoy showing 15-16 ft with long periods this AM - (Oregon Buoy even bigger at 18-20 ft) this is the next swell set to come ashore late today/tonight and be in full force on Monday.   Storm door is open with rain, wind, mountain snow will to accompany the swell making for pretty challenging conditions from SF to the Oregon border.  Nooks and crannies might have some windows for the next few days as the XL swell looks to stick around.  Improving conditions around mid week with smaller swell and lighter winds.   Cya in the water!  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-27 - FIRST SIG NW SWELL OF SEASON TO COME

 Decent size northwest swell to continue for N Cal through the next five days or so until a bigger swell train moves in.   Early this AM swell is about 7 @12 Bay Area, closer to 9@12 north of Bodega.  Swell direction pretty steep angle at 315 deg.   Look for a new nw swell to come in on Friday at 6-8 ft @16 seconds, pushing up to 9-11ft at 15 sec on Saturday.   Remaining decent into Sunday at 7-9ft.   Biggest north of Bodega Bay.   Best winds look likely tomorrow with light nw flow, stronger winds again Sat through Monday - although AM winds might trend offshore nearshore.  Meanwhile, a large storm system in the Gulf of AK coming out of the Aleutians is pushing east and will stall over the weekend up near British Columbia.  At the same time a Pacific High will dive SE alongside it and the combo will push a very long, strong fetch of winds and 311 degree swell our way for late Monday into Tuesday.  This will likely be our first real swell of the season with deepwater swell heights on order 14-18ft - perhaps pushing 20ft north of Bodega Bay.  More on this late Sunday or Early Monday as things become clearer.   Weather wise, high pressure is lingering around us, but the overall trend out in the Pac is bias towards low pressure.  Eventually we should start to see some rain chances increase by early November - but the models have been hinting at a pattern change for two weeks now and the ridge of high pressure has remained tough.  Dust off the guns for next weeks swell.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-21 - STORM DOOR OPENS A BIT.....

 N PAC getting active and current swell will fade into the weekend.   Might get some rain north of Sonoma - biggest thing through the weekend will be the northwest winds - they're going to rage and kick up a pretty strong wind swell.  Northwest swell will stay medium size through the weekend - 4-7 ft - 11-12 sec stuff.  NOAA is showing a south swell - 2 ft at 18-20 seconds - but not sure I'm buying it to show much north of Santa Cruz due to the very strong headwinds it will run into coming up the coast.  Next week more weather on and off - and looking ahead seeing some potentially very large northwest swells to close out October.  Check back for details on that!   Should be plenty of waves around - just know your spots and check your winds!   Cya in the water!   

UPDATED FORECAST OCT 10TH

The week ahead stays on the small side with a few notables:

South swell will continue most of the week at 2-3ft at 17-18 seconds.  Fading Thursday.  

Northwest swell continues on the smaller side - look for an uptick Tuesday at 7-9 ft @9 sec, Wednesday 5-7ft @10 seconds - fading some into the weekend.   Bigger north, smaller Bay Area south.  

Winds are going to crank up today/tonight over the outer northern waters and southern outer waters - so look for some bump and janky conditions at breaks open to the wind/waves.  Wind should fade some into mid week, but then look to ratchet back up again by the weekend.   Nearshore winds might be lighter or trend offshore some mornings - since we do have a dry weather system heading into the Great Basin to give us some offshore flow - but it will be light.  Fire danger remains low, coast should still see fog and drizzle.   No change in the weather pattern or surf pattern until mid to later October when models are hinting at a pattern shift - hopefully this blocking high pressure will vacate the region.   We should start seeing some bigger fall waves later in October either way.   

Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 9-28

 Our first more significant northwest swell is hitting the outer buoys and will fill in overnight.  West Oregon buoy peaked around 3am at 19 ft 11 seconds.   Papa Buoy earlier at 19ft 13 seconds.  This is all from a storm system in the Gulf of Alaska that is now bringing some rain to parts of Oregon and far Northern CA (Crescent City).   Swell will peak Thursday/Friday at 8-10 ft @ 11-12 seconds.   Certainly enough to bring some winter spots to life for a time.  Winds are light today but unfortunately going to turn north to northwest strongly later today and last until Sunday.  It's officially Fall, so that means early season storms heading into the Great Basin and offshore/north winds behind it.   The usual set up and that's what we will have.   Spots that can handle that wind direction will be cleanest.  Swell will rapidly fall Saturday on.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 9-17 - FIRST NW SWELL ON THE WAY....

Early season storm door is open as the remnants of Typhoon Merbok about to make its presence known along the West Coast with rain, wind, mountain snow and swell.   Weather wise - rain will start far north overnight and spread throughout the Bay Area Sunday.   Heaviest rain will be in the north bay, probably 1-3 inches depending on location - lighter amounts further south you go but still pretty decent for a September rain event.   Winds will switch to south overnight and be quite strong Sunday into Monday - then lighter winds Tuesday/Wednesday.   We have two small souths in the water - one fading out today and another set to rise overnight - probably maxing out at 2ft 17-18 seconds.  Monday swell from the remnants of Typhoon Merbok start to show at 2-3 ft at 20 seconds from 308 deg.    Swell will be 3ft at 18 seconds Tuesday into Wednesday.   We will see a bump of northwest wind swell at the same time, shorter periods - 9-10 seconds - overall good northwest breaks will probably see waves head high and better at times - smaller the further south you go.   **Note, the typhoon swell was heavily shadowed by the Aleutians - so it will be quite lully at times.   That combined with the northwest wind swell, sw swell might make for some interesting conditions at a lot of breaks.   So, some exciting days ahead with the weather and waves!  Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST SEP 9

 Steep angled (330) larg-ish north wind swell making its way from north to south this morning - 9.3@11 seconds north of Bodega, smaller towards Bay Area, but size should increase through the morning.  Strong south swell is fading out today while a new swell overtakes and reinforced through the weekend.  This next series of south swell won't be as big as this last one - look for deepwater heights in the 2 to 2.5ft range - from 189-194.   No real storms on the horizon yet in the N Pac but keeping a watch.   Winds look strong from the northwest today especially northern outer waters - fading into the weekend with light winds forecast through Sunday.  Cya in the water.  

SEPTEMBER 1!

Welcome to the 2022/2023 surf season in Northern California.  You made it through!  While things aren't in full swing yet in the N Pac, watching the satellite feeds over the past couple weeks it's showing an active pattern already with low pressure systems swinging out of the Bering Sea into the Gulf.  In fact we've already had a few minor Gulf wind swells - with one in the water right now at 4ft @11 seconds, and another due in starting Saturday of a similar size.   Background south swells through the holiday weekend but on the smaller side - 2ft or so with the best of the group starting on Monday.   Northwest winds through the weekend strongest out waters - with the "heat dome" over us could see lighter winds nearshore each morning and late afternoon/early evening.  You've probably read or heard we are heading into a triple dip La Niña this fall/winter - right now that forecast is suppose to show La Niña fading out by December as we move to a state called ENSO Neutral - which means exactly what it says - which should be equal chances for normal rainfall/weather - or not!   We could really use a wet winter around the West, but without a clear El Niño signal anytime soon - unlikely to happen.   That said - for SF north - especially Sonoma County to the Oregon border - expect similar rainfall amounts to last season perhaps more.  That's it for now.  Cya in the water.