Sunday, September 30, 2012

It's Almost Like Disneyland

Finally, light offshores have returned to Central/Northern CA.  Warm day all the way to area beaches.  Good mix of northwest swell 6-7 ft at 13-14 sec and ongoing southwest from 2-3 ft with periods around 17 sec.  Look for the southwest to actually increase Monday and Tuesday as the northwest swell fades some.  In fact, look for pretty decent waves and conditions for most of the coming week as another smaller round of northwest swell will fill in Wednesday and stick around through Friday.  Southwest swell will hang in there all week.  Pattern may start to break down next weekend with cooler temps (possible rain showers) as low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska will finally rotate through our region.  Until then, next few days look really nice - especially for the morning sessions.  Get out and enjoy.  Cya in the water.

Friday, September 28, 2012

Weekend Forecast

New NW swell has been showing at Papa Buoy for a number of hours now - 10-14 ft with periods 12-15 seconds.  Note, the Calif Buoy still needs to be redeployed, so we don't get another reading on incoming swell trains until they hit our far northern buoys.  Given size at Papa - still think we'll see deepwater heights of 6-8 ft around here - maybe a touch bigger to our north.  Weather boys are forecasting a good heat wave with light to offshore winds over the next few days - but i'm not sure i am buying the warm up all the way to the coast to get rid of this fog.  I can't remember a September so foggy - but that's what we have been dealt.  Sunday and Monday look the warmest, and the best chance  of less fog.  However, winds look to stay fairly light through the period - especially for AM sessions.  We have a nice southwest swell in the water most of the weekend too.  So, plenty of swell, check the winds and i'm sure you'll find something to ride.  cya in the water.

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Next Swell Loading Up

Morning sat shot shows another strong storm in the Gulf - with associated wind fetch extending back through the North Pacific.  This is our swell maker for Saturday/Sunday.  Won't quite be as big as this past swell, however look for solid 8-10 ft deepwater by Sunday morning.  Saturday will feature 5-8 ft deepwater.  Not as much West - angle of approach will be 295-320.  We will also have a decent southwest swell in the water as well.  Over the next two days some extreme angle SSE tropical swell from Hurricane Miriam is also possible.  Plenty of surf for the next 7 days.  The only problem is the persistent fog and onshore winds which look to continue through the period.  Making a muck out of what would be a pretty fine run of surf for us. But check the winds, could be some moments and/or spots that work.  Just need to be on it and hunt.  Cya in the water.

Monday, September 24, 2012

10 ft at 17 seconds

Swell arrived overnight - firing right now - but the low level winds have not changed from onshore.  So most points from the Bay Area north are a bit funky.  Winds sw/west.  On the light side, but enough to mess spots up.  If you go hunting you'll find plenty of swell in the water.  While it will remain warm inland with typical September weather, the coast looks to remain locked under onshore flow most of the week.  Tracking another swell for the weekend - touch smaller than our current, but should still be solid size.  More on that mid week.  cya in the water.

Saturday, September 22, 2012

Happy Autumn Everyone

First day of Autumn.  Good times.  Right on cue, we'll have light winds Sunday, turning offshore on Monday.  First big swell of the season is in the water and on track to blast at first light on Monday.  Swell will fill in overnight Sunday - peak late Monday - with plenty of size left around Tuesday/Wednesday.  Monday should see 8-12 ft at 15 seconds from 288-300.  Until then, windswell and southwest swell for Sunday with what should be pretty clean conditions as we're going to be under a fairly neutral wind pattern with a thermal low pressure system over the top of CA.  Might see some patchy fog in the morning, but it will clear out quickly.  Enjoy the season.  Cya in the water. ***does not appear offshore flow will make it the coast now on Monday.

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Here We Go.....

First real storm of the season winding up in the North Pacific.  This system will send us a large swell for Monday and Tuesday.  Look for deepwater heights on Monday 8-12 ft at 16 seconds from 288.  Tuesday size and period should drop 8-9 ft at 12 seconds.  Winds are going to be tricky, could actually see some light surface offshore flow early next week.  Until then, winds are going to pick up from the northwest each day for afternoon sessions - morning winds might be a touch lighter.  We do have a fun mix of small northwest swell and southwest swell in the water today - but you need to find protection from the winds that are blowing hard.  cya in the water.

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

NW Winds

NW winds blowing hard and look to stay that way through the week.  We're in a rex block pattern with deep low pressure in the Gulf of AK - and high pressure just off BC.  By the weekend - a very deep and unseasonable low pressure system is forecast to drop right over Nor Cal - still unsure how much precip is going to arrive with this system - but the potential is there for some very light rain. However, more interesting will be the swell that develops with this system that should start to arrive around Sunday/Monday and continue for a few days.  I'll get the size dialed in on that one later in the week.  We have some decent background south in the water through the period.  But it's going to take a proper ass beating coming up the coast against the NW wind.  Very unusual September we have going.  By now the flow normally changes in the lower levels to offshore - but not seeing anything resembling a pattern change yet.  But the season is changing for sure with the Autumn Equinox just a few days away.  Find shelter from the winds for the next 4-5 days and you might find something to ride.  Cya in the water. 

Sunday, September 16, 2012

Starting the week

Winds stayed pretty light to near calm most of the day - with super small surf.  As we start the week, look for light winds to continue each morning - picking up for the afternoon sessions.  South to southwest swell should continue to pulse all week.  We also have a couple of tropical systems south - that could potentially send up some swell, however this will probably be lost in the more dominant long period south action.  Windswell will cross up the south at times during the week.  Things get more interesting towards next weekend - when we might have our first chance of rain in the region.  This system is also forecast to pump out decent swell from about Sept 24th on - looks like it could be three to four days of swell from the northwest.  All this is just model forecast right now - i'll start to dial in the details later this week.  So, smallish surf on tap most of the week - but should be some stuff to ride.  NW winds might increase a bit by next Friday.  Cya in the water. 

Friday, September 14, 2012

Updated Forecast

After a few nice mornings at local beaches, we're back to small surf and light onshore winds.  We do have a small pulse of south swell in the water - 2.9 at 17 from 170-190.  That is going to be around all weekend.  Problem remains the winds and fog which should remain light onshore through the period.  Things may improve next Monday and Tuesday, when the morning winds look favorable again.  Windswell will pick up again late Saturday night into Sunday, as high pressure to our north will continue to interact with thermal low pressure inland and to the south.  This will create winds over the open, outer waters.  So, you might find a few nuggets over the weekend if you know where to look.  No big storms out in the Pacific at the moment.  Cya in the water.

Sunday, September 9, 2012

Week Ahead

Well, northwest winds made a mess of what should have been a nice longer period north swell over the weekend.  Never had a chance really.  Look for strong winds to continue the next two days or so - then we might see things relax for morning sessions Wednesday thru Friday.  Another system in the Gulf of Alaska is fading tonight - not much swell present with this one - however due to the high pressure offshore interacting with low pressure to our south - we should see a pretty decent windswell event for Wed - Thurs - with deepwater heights in the 6-8 ft range a 9-10 seconds.  This will fade on Friday.  Background south swell will continue most of the week - perhaps some signs of a stronger push of sw swells for late in the week and into the following.  More on that to come.  NO sign of any big offshore wind event on the horizon.  Cya in the water.

Thursday, September 6, 2012

Update on Weekend Swell

Weekend swell is in the water and pushing south.  *As of Friday AM - swell hitting Papa Buoy at 10ft 15 sec. This should be good for 4-6 ft by the time it reaches our coast.  Swell will build in all day Saturday, slow at first.  Could have some decent energy in the water by sunset.  By Sunday morning - swell should be in full force with overhead waves at north facing breaks.  We'll have another southwest swell underneath over the weekend - which might create a good cross up at beach breaks.  Problem this weekend will be the northwest winds - as high pressure will re build in the East Pacific and increase the gradient.  I think Sunday will have the heaviest winds - from dawn to dusk.  Saturday morning may have lighter northwest wind flow.  So, from Saturday afternoon on - plenty of swell just check the winds and if you know your spots you'll have something to ride.  Cya in the water.

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

25 ft at 13 seconds...

Gulf Storm at left ramping up and dropping south nicely under the Aleutians.  Latest buoy report up there is showing 25ft at 13 seconds.  This energy will be our weekend swell.  Probably start seeing some energy on Friday.  This swell should be in the 4-7 ft range - periods initially at 15 seconds (Saturday), dropping to 12 seconds on Sunday.  Direction - 307 degrees.  Nice pulse of northwest swell.  Winds look to stay fairly light most of the week for the mornings.  I'll update the wind forecast later in the week.  cya in the water.

Monday, September 3, 2012

Updated Forecast - New Gulf Gale

South swell continues to hang around, deep water readings 2-2.5ft at 17 seconds from 170-190.  Swell should fade out of here completely by late Tuesday.  Windswell will then take over for most of the week.  A new storm dropping south under the Aleutians is forecast to gain strength and wind is pushing pretty good to the East.  If things hold together, we'll see a shot of mid period northwest swell next weekend - probably in the 3-5 ft range (deepwater) - maybe a touch bigger the further north you go.  This event should hang around most of next weekend.  Winds this week look fairly light from the west or northwest all week.  Fog remains locally dense near the coast.   I don't see anything changing the wind flow this week.  Will remain onshore.  I'll update Wednesday on the incoming swell train for the weekend.  Cya in the water.

Saturday, September 1, 2012


Impressive south swell sweeping the California Coast today.  Look for chest to head high + waves on Sunday at best breaks - with light west winds forecast early.  Light winds should also be the rule for Monday morning.  Swell will begin a slow fade on Monday, but still plenty of energy.  Still watching a couple lows under the Aleutians, dropping south - starting to look more like Fall in the North Pacific - and right on cue.  More on potential swell from these systems on Monday.  Cya in the water.