UPDATED FORECAST 6-7 - SOUTH SWELL OF THE CENTURY? DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE.....BUT.....

 By now depending on where you consume your surf forecast, you've heard we have a very strong south swell inbound starting tomorrow (for So Cal), filling in and pretty much pumping Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday.   I've heard nonsense like 11ft @19 seconds, 100 year swell, etc.   Is it going to be big?  Yes, it will actually be a very strong swell - and in the middle of quite a run of south swells over the past two weeks (Thank you building El Niño).  I  do think this swell will end up being one of the bigger swells of the past couple years, peaking around 4-5ft@19-20 seconds on Tuesday/Wednesday.  100 year swell?  Probably not.  Now a few factors to take into account.  First, the actual swell might end up coming in bigger than forecast.   It was a powerful storm that created it, down in the favorable east of New Zealand corridor.  What makes it stronger than most, winds, fetch and movement.  The storm was taking a favorable northeast track towards HI/So Cal swell windows, moving over an already disturbed ocean state thanks to these pre running south swells and when you have wind and storm moving in the same direction (virtual fetch) you get a significant swell event.  I'd say keep an eye on the buoys around Tuesday.  That will be a good indicator of what we are dealing with.  For Nor Cal, SF and points beyond - the real action will likely be later Tuesday and then all day Wednesday.  This is also the kind of swell event that will light up novelty, rare south swell points and reefs, so if you know, you know.  Winds will not be ideal - strong northwest flow is forecast most of the week.  Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 6-1, SOUTH FOR DAYS

 Jun 1.  About to see a long run of south swells from a very active storm track Down Under.  Long period swell already in the water today - running around 2-2.5ft @20 seconds from around 200 deg.  Swell will run through the week as two swells overlap.   Deep water heights should stay in the 2ft + range, with periods running from 15 - 20 seconds for the most part.  Swell direction will stay in the 200-205 degree zone.  For points north of Santa Cruz, big factor will be the ongoing northwest winds and larger north wind swell.  This will decay these inbound swells some, but given the long period energy, some decent waves will still show.  No let up in northwest winds through the week.  Water temps remain cold near shore - 48-51 degrees north of Jenner.   Bit warmer around SF at 53 degrees.  Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST - 5-21 - Also - El Niño Update

 Lighter winds showing up and down the CA Coast this morning as high pressure has weakened some allowing for fog and low clouds to reform.   Look for another round of pm winds SF north today and tomorrow and then trending lighter into the holiday weekend.  Decent size, short period wind swell remains the main swell, 10-11 ft @9-11 seconds from 320 plus degrees.  Background south swells remain around 2ft@16 seconds.  Looking for a possible up tick in the south swell by Monday, with deep water heights potentially 3@17 seconds - most of this energy will likely be felt from Santa Cruz south to LA.  Water temps are cold near shore - 49-50 degrees north of Sonoma County line and even a chilly 51 in SF.  This is from the past week or more of strong winds blowing and the upwelling machine in full force.  Finally, lot of hype about the upcoming El Niño event for fall and winter.  Plenty of online kooks predicting an end of the world Super El Niño.  Follow the facts and guidelines of the experts at NOAA who are for sure predicting El Niño to happen - in fact showing signs of formation already - however the strongest El Niño events, or Super El Niño's - are characterized by significant ocean-atmosphere coupling through the summer and it still remains to be seen whether this occurs in 2026.  Also not every El Niño is the same and does not ensure strong impacts.  Most past events do create more rain, snow, weather for CA and the Southwest, more storms equal more swells, but in a climate under siege because of our warming planet any weather impacts are highly variable.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 5-3

Late season northwest swell arrives today and will peak around 6-7@15 sec from 300+ degrees.  Wind are mostly calm with fog along the entire California Coast.   Small south in the background at around 2ft.  Northwest swell will fade into the start of the work week, while small south swells stay in the background through the period.   Winds do look to stay pretty calm most of the week.   Chance of rain late today into Monday and then a gradual increase in temps by late next week.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 4-11 - WINTER RETURNS

Strong storm system will move across Central and Nor Cal later today producing 1-3in of rain and heavy snow in the Sierra before exiting sometime late Sunday.   Mix of long period south swell in the water (2.5@17 from 200) and north west swell (5.6@14 from 300).  Winds are south and will get stronger as the day goes on and the front moves through.   This storm will bring a shorter period, larger, west swell in on Sunday - likely 10ft@11-12 seconds.   More rain, bigger waves north of the Bay Area for the next few days.   That west swell will gradually fade into next week while pulses of south swell continue at 2-3ft @14 seconds.   Winds will begin to ramp up again from the northwest once this storm system moves out of the region.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 3-26

Our hot, dry March will come to a close next week as rain returns to most of CA starting about Tuesday and go on for 3-4 days.  Heaviest amounts Santa Cruz north.   Surf wise - lot of wind right now in the outer waters (gale warnings up) generating mostly large wind swell - north of Bodega around 10@10 sec.  Smaller SF south.   Small south in the water at 2ft - but getting smacked down once in gets around Pt Conception.  Pretty much look for average size wind swell the rest of the week into early next - along with background south swells.  Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 3-10 - FIRST SOUTH IN THE WATER

 Long period south swell forerunners moving up the West Coast today - offshore buoys from Santa Cruz south to Oceanside reporting 2ft@22 plus sec from 187-194 deg.   SF north, just mostly large wind swell for the day as the north west winds continue to howl.  Swell will start to fill in better from SC south on Wednesday - peaking around 3@17-19 sec on Thursday.  Leftovers around Friday into Saturday, but smaller.  North of SC - swell will probably start to show at good south facing spots Thursday into Friday - might lose some steam due to the forecasted northwest winds through the period - but not a bad starter for the season.   High pressure firmly in control now through the next 10 days.   Will it rain again this season?   Not looking likely, although long term models way out point to one more pattern change late March into early April - will see if that actually comes to pass.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 2-28 - End of the "good wave" season?

 March 1st tomorrow and that typically is the end of the good wave/weather season around these parts.   A look at the buoys this morning paints a more optimistic picture.   New long period northwest swell has filled in overnight - ranging from over 9ft @15-17 seconds (320 deg) far north to around 4@15 seconds in SF.   Smaller south of there, but swell will continue to fill in all day.  We also have traces of a new and first south swell of the spring, around 1ft@17 seconds.  That will also build some over the weekend, but likely be lost in the dominant northwest swell.   Winds are light to offshore.   Northwest swell will fade over the weekend and be replaced by some small west to northwest swells through Tuesday.   Chance of rain returns Sunday and Monday - but very light and likely none south of Sonoma County.   Later next week the northwest (spring) wind machine ramps up with strong winds 25-30kt by Wednesday evening.   Just a reminder what season we are heading into!  Plenty of waves the next couple of days.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 2-15 - STAYING LARGE AND STORMY

 Just starting a solid storm production cycle for the West Coast with heavy snow, rain and wind, XL surf for the most part over the next week.  Timing the windows for ideal winds and surf will be challenging.  This morning - first storm in the series is producing strong south winds and heavy rain north of the Sonoma County line.   West swell 8-9ft@15 seconds mostly, with short period south and north wind swell also in the water making it all a chaotic mess.  Swell comes up a notch tomorrow, pulsing back up to 10@13 and then really jumping Tuesday into Wednesday with deep water heights forecast 16-17ft @14-17 seconds.  Swell angle will fluctuate between 270 and 295 degrees.  West to northwest winds - strong at times - through the next 5 days.  This will continue to bring much colder air into the region and very low snow levels by Wednesday morning.   All n all, not many windows to surf but there are a few spots that will hold waves and deal with the wind.   Cya in the water?   

UPDATED FORECAST 1-31

 Good size west swell (280 deg) continues today, fading quite a bit from its peak yesterday - but solid this morning - 6-8 ft at 11 to 13sec.   Winds are light, mostly offshore as high pressure is once again in control.   A strong low pressure system in the N Pac will send another strong swell to our shores starting Sunday starting at 11@16 sec from 290 plus with a slow fade into Monday and Tuesday.  Monday will still be solid - 10-11@15 sec.   Brief dip in heights will be following by yet another swell starting next Thursday, ratcheting wave heights back up into the 10-11@14-16sec realm.   Good winds for the next week, light to variable/offshore for the most part.   Not much rain in the forecast through the second week of February.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 1-17

 Two distinct patterns this winter - couple weeks of wet, followed by couple weeks of dry - we are back in that dry period, reminiscent of most of December prior to Christmas when the flood gates opened with rain through New Years Day.  Stubborn high pressure the culprit, but not very unusual for a La Niña Winter.   Great weather for us and there have been some really epic surf days.   High pressure sticks around for at least another week and then models are hinting at a pattern change again - back to rain.   Until then - mostly light, offshore winds, some fog, small surf the rule.  Small west/northwest swell today through tomorrow - around 4-5ft@13-14 seconds.   Another slightly larger swell from the northwest will fill in Tuesday - peaking at around 6@14 seconds.  Swell direction for both around 280-290 deg.  So mostly fun size waves for the next week or so - Santa Cruz north.   Cya in the water.