Monday, August 31, 2009

New NW Swell arriving

Deep water buoy shows new NW - 4 ft at 14 sec from 310. Problem is we have onshore winds with it and forecast for most of the week. Things dont look very clean. Size will increase during the day with overhead sets at northwest facing breaks. Swell sticks around Tuesday - then fades Wednesday. Put away those party hats for now - as things in both the north and southern pac have slowed again with not much headed our way for the upcoming holiday weekend. Hopefully, it's just a brief break in the action. cya in the water.

Friday, August 28, 2009

Update on Swells - Size Downgraded

Morning - very clean conditions with light to offshore flow. Two swells in the water, SE swell from TS Ignacio at 4.0 ft 11 sec from 170. West swell at 4.5 at 12 from 275. The large swell that was suppose to hit this am - really dropped off as it approached the coast. I still expect some decent size tomorrow with some overhead sets at NW facing beaches - but not quite as macking as initially forecast by models. As for Monday/Tuesday swell - that too looks smaller right now and i'll update on that event over the weekend. If you can get out today someplace - it looks super fun. Onshore flow looks to pick up again as the remnants from Ignacio get caught up in the northern jetstream and blow east of us. This will probably happen over the weekend. cya in the water.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Two More NW Swells to follow

Next "West" shot in the water - looks to hit Friday with deep water swell in the 8-9 at 15sec from 284. Pretty solid. Saturday, period drops to 13 sec, but still size. Look for another NW swell next Monday - deepwater forecast at 7-8 at 15 sec from 302. Tuesday similar size, period drops to 13 sec. Period and size drop out Wed to 6-7 at 12 sec. After that - things may calm down just a bit. However - the pattern is setting up shop in the North Pacific and with El Nino fueling storm development - I think we're in for a very active Fall. **One note - we still have pretty decent south swell in the water all this week too - overshadowed a bit by the run of NW, but for breaks that do well on the cross up in swells - some pretty fun surf. cya in the water.

Sunday, August 23, 2009

More Gulf of Alaska NW Swell On Way

Damn, that's a nice picture isn't it? Nice low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska with another storm forming behind it. Look for surf to build from this first storm Wednesday afternoon - with overhead sets - continuing into Thursday morning, with biggest waves early. Look for surf in the 6-8 ft range at 13 sec/dropping to 12 sec on Thursday. Next up, similar size swell pushes in for next Saturday and then even bigger West swell forecast for Monday 8-31. Keep in mind surf heights may change as each event gets closer depending on how the storms develop. Winds still really iffy right now with fog in place and forecast to be on and off all next week. With some hints at some offshore events mid week - but don't count on it. If we're lucky, winds will at least stay light SW to W for the morning sessions. The pattern in the Gulf is setting up and now we need some of these storm systems to come ashore in the NW and dive into the Great Basin to set up some real offshore wind events for September.

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Gulf of Alaska Opening For Business

Say it with me - FALL- ahhh. And as if on cue, we've got back to back NW swells forecast for the weekend and mid next week. First pulse due in Saturday, peaking Sunday. Steep angle - 300-315 and mid period stuff - but should be good for head high + sets. Second pulse, moves in next Tuesday/Wednesday - similar angle 300-315 +, may have a bit longer period. This second swell might get a bit bigger too - head high ++. Making things even more interesting, starting tomorrow late we've got a series of back to back SW/S swells to cross things up. Looking for pretty decent deep water swell energy in the 2-4 ft range with periods from 19 to 15 seconds - over the next 9-10 days. Angle of approach will range from 200 to 190 on the south swells. Winds look pretty light for morning sessions through Monday. SW to S to W winds - but in the 5-10kt range. No offshore pattern to take shape - but no blow out either. Should be plenty to surf for the next 7 days and beyond. Cya in the water.

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

South stirs, perhaps some NW swell next week

Signs of life for the weekend - look for a new SW swell to start filling in over Friday - with most size late in the day. Look for waist high stuff, but getting into the chest/head high range over the weekend. Direction 190-200. Look for a stronger pulse of s swell (180-190) around the 27th thru the 28th of next week. Long range charts also now show a NW Swell for around Aug 23 to Aug 27. Too early to call right now for size/period - but I will keep an eye on it and have an update over the weekend. No real offshores in sight this week - but light s winds, potentially right through the weekend. So some bump, perhaps a little funk here and there - but at least it's not blowing NW at 25kts. cya in the water.

Monday, August 17, 2009

Uneventful week ahead.....

Well those offshores forecast for this past weekend never fully developed. Fog with a southerly surge ruled the coastal weather. As we move into the new week - looks like mainly windswell through next weekend. Winds will diminish overall as we move through the period. So am sessions might feature some light to variable winds nearshore. Looking at the models in the northern hemi, nothing of interest right now. Southern hemi looks to get more active as we move later into August, with the promise of some better long period SW swells due in late in the month. But right now that's just a pipe dream from the models. Until then, enjoy the windswell and hopefully lighter than normal winds. On an El Nino note - final confirmation of the strength of the upcoming event is probable around the 3rd week in September. Most forecasters (including NOAA) agree we're going into an El Nino event - but the actual strength is still to be determined.

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Offshores for the weekend

Early Fall pattern starting to establish itself. About a month early. Low pressure system will dive into the NW tomorrow and then into the Great Basin over the weekend setting up a northerly flow over our area. How much winds turn to the NE, still remains to be seen, but winds will definitely be blowing out of the north thru Sunday. Swell wise - windswell will be the main feature in the water, larger than it's been - forecasting 6-8, 9-11 ft stuff Sat/Sun. Short period - probably in the 8-9 sec range. Models have been hinting at some small NW swell early next week - but i've not seen much evidence yet this will develop. So for now, we're kinda in between summer and fall - nothing major from either hemi coming yet - but it's getting closer! cya in the water.

Monday, August 10, 2009

Simmons fish fest at Ocean Beach

So this weekend we busted out our Simmons fishes for some Ocean Beach goodness. I think between the four of us in this picture we must own like 80 surfboards - bunch of freaks. Bunch of old dudes too. L to R:
Wasabi with Jeff Mccallum 5.8 2nd generation Simmons, "Rowfu" with 5.8 Hydrodynamica, the "Colonel" with 5.4 Hydrodynamica simster shaped by Rusty, and Sean with his 5.4 Hydrodynamica Simster. Damn fun rides too. As for surf - did anyone catch that offshore this morning?? First one of the season. Heard reports it was fun. Looks like still small swell the rest of the week, but not completely shut down. Fog is coming back up the Coast tonight so our nice morning weather is gone - but hopefully winds will stay light for AM sessions. Cya in the waters.

Friday, August 7, 2009

Tropical Swell for the weekend

Swell from Hurricane Felicia starting to show along our Coast. Look for waves in the 12-14 sec range, probably 2-3 ft. We have a small SW showing too - so there won't be much notable difference, just a bit more consistency. NW Windswell is going to increase over the weekend as NW winds ramp up offshore on the outer waters after our low pressure system came through yesterday. Winds might mess up the morning sessions near the coast - hard to say - best to get up and check it in the am and see if they remain on the lighter side. We might luck out and get somewhat cleaner conditions for the mornings. Longer range, no significant NW swells yet - just looks like NW windswell and S/SW swell.

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

A hint of Fall....

Ah, a small taste of Fall weather at the Beach today. Sweet south swell nuggies rolling in. Light winds - (was even offshore this am for a time). I surfed mid day - and winds were still calm - super fun lefts coming in - good size at times too. This SW swell seems to have slipped in and caught everyone by surprise with it's size and consistency. Still in the 2-3 ft at 17 sec range (deep water size). Size should peak tomorrow and winds look to stay light. We also have two tropical storms - Enrique and Felicia. Felicia is a Cat 1 hurricane now and has moved into our swell window today with sustained winds of 70k. If she keeps on this course we should have some SSW swell by weeks end and into the weekend. All signs of El Nino my friends - very active Pacific tropic season and nothing doing really in the Atlantic. I'm also watching a storm diving under the Aleutians today and over the next 48 hours - not sure yet if it will fire us a shot - but we could see some small NW windswell from it over the weekend.