UPDATED FORECAST 10-9 - GO SURF

 Combo of northwest swell, tropical swell and long period southwest swells in the water today with mostly light winds starting out the day.  The N Pac swell is around 4-7ft@13 sec from 306, fading from yesterday's peak.   Tropical swell is around 3ft@11 from 175 and the New Zealand Southwest is 2-3ft@15 sec from 210.  There will be another NZ swell running in over the weekend peaking at around 2.5ft@17 seconds on Sunday.   At the same time, extratropical swell from Typhoon Choi Wan, which raced up Japan last week and then came around in the westerly jet stream (peak seas were about 52ft) has sent some sideband energy our way for Saturday/Sunday/Monday/Tuesday.   Swell will build late in the day Sunday - forerunners 2-3ft@ 21-22 seconds from 300, peaking Monday at 2.7ft@17 seconds.   Waits will be long, size likely will be bigger than forecast when sets arrive - especially north of Bodega Bay.   Winds might be an issue this weekend as the heat dome is being replaced by low pressure diving out of BC, which will in turn ramp up the wind machine over the coastal regions and waters.   That is the only thing that might mess up a really good weekend of waves, a lot of big wind swell.   Either way, waves around, get out there and cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-5

 Small Gulf of AK swell will roll in mid week - biggest north of Bodega.   Likely push 7@14 in the north, 3-5@14 SF south.  We will also have a New Zealand swell fill in around the same time mid week.  N Pac swell direction around 306 degrees, S Pac swell will be 210 degrees, 2@17 to start and drop to 15-16sec Thursday and beyond.  Will have another New Zealand swell build in Friday for the weekend.   Similar size to the first pulse.   Winds look pretty light for the most part all week.  Minor fluctuations.   Heat dome remains overhead until Thursday, then we cool down for the weekend as low pressure comes into the West.  TBD if we will see any rain from it, but the pattern will shift and push the heat out.  Tropics remain active and still waiting for the N Pac to come online.  It will get there eventually, just taking time.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 9-27 - Long Period NW tomorrow.......Along with more south.....

 Last week Typhoon Dujuan went extra-tropical (indicative of El Niño) off Japan, came across in the jet stream and created a small northwest swell that will begin to show Monday (far north) and slowly fill in along the Central CA Coast into mid week.  Should peak around 3-6 ft@17 seconds from 304 degrees.  Expect long waits between sets as the swell traveled a long way.   At the same time, more tropical swell from the two hurricanes spinning off Baja will make its way into the waters, probably peaking around 3-4 ft@13sec/190 deg.  That energy is already showing this morning in So Cal and will slowly migrate north through Sunday.   Beyond, northwest wind to retain control and small background south swells through the week.  The N Pac branch of the jet stream is very active and just looking for the first really strong low pressure system to sink into the Gulf and pump out a significant swell.  It's coming.......Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 9-21, NORTH PACIFIC WAKES......Happy Autumn Equinox!

Over the weekend a review of the satellite feeds (Windy.com, Pacific Satellite link in my link bar) from the N Pacific showed an impressive low pressure system in the northeast Gulf of AK, which has now made its way into BC.   You can see the active jet stream with multiple lows moving west to east, along with a distinct atmospheric river flowing at the base of the troughs from just east of Japan to a point west and north of the Hawaiian Island Chain.   We do have some small northwest swell inbound from the first low, deepwater heights at the outer buoys showing around 4@17 sec (West Oregon Buoy).  We also have a small New Zealand south/south west swell rolling in at around 2@17 from 200.   The Gulf swell won't begin to show until late day on the north coast of CA, spreading south through mid week.  We also have two new tropical storms in the East Pacific - Odalys and Polo.  Neither will be a swell maker for CA, too far west and moving in the wrong direction.  Could see a bit of sideband energy, but likely lost under other swells in the water.  Northwest winds most of the week over the outer waters, although models might be overdoing the strength with the nearshore fog/south wind influence.   However, with high pressure building in safe bet to say the northwest winds may win out.   No rain in the forecast except a small chance late this week when high pressure exits and low pressure comes back into the Pac NW.   The El Niño pump is primed and strong, expect the real effects won't really get started until December, but the energy out in the Pacific is impressive for September.  As we move into October and November things will most likely slowly ramp up.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 9-8, SWELL FROM MARIE FADES, NEW SW SHOWS

Left overs from Hurricane Marie swell still showing this morning - deep water heights around 3ft at 10-11 seconds from 175 deg.   A new southwest swell from the New Zealand corridor will start to fill in later today/tonight, 1.5ft at 19 seconds, peaking tomorrow through Friday at 2-2.5ft at 15-17 sec from 215 degrees.  Winds look to stay mostly light through the week as high pressure sits overhead with offshore flow, very little marine layer or fog push until late week when temps will cool back to near or below normal.   Not tracking any new swells from the Gulf, but some wind swell will mix in through the week staying at 3-4 ft with very short periods.  Cya in the water.