UPDATED FORECAST 7-17 - TROPICAL SWELL AND MORE SOUTH FROM DOWN UNDER

 Tropical Storm Elida is forecast to become a hurricane briefly on Saturday.  Current winds are 55kt with gusts to 65kt.  It has moved into the So Cal swell window and will continue a north/northwest track providing the entire CA coast with a decent shot of tropical swell early next week, forerunners perhaps as early as Sunday.  Interestingly the "cone" or path from NOAA has the remnants of Elida southwest of Monterey Bay (but well offshore) by next Wednesday.  CA should start to see mid/high level clouds late this weekend into next week.   Right now not expecting any strong storms/potential lightning events over the State, but could see some activity over the Sierra next week.  Swell should peak around 4@14 early next week - 175-185 deg, but given the proximity of the storm and winds, could see some bigger waves at times.   Would expect longer period forerunners in the Santa Cruz region late Sunday and then swell will fill in for Monday and Tuesday, maybe even extend more into the week for points north of SF.  At the same time we will have some new long period swell from the Central Pacific, 2ft @16 sec from 195 and a much stronger storm developing under New Zealand with very large seas forecast Down Under likely to create a strong south swell for us later in the month.   El Niño is charging forward now with ocean temps steadily rising from Peru up off Ecuador and west to the Galapagos.  Expect a strong hurricane season in the East Pacific through fall and continued swell production from Down Under.  When the N Pac starts to come online late August into September we may very well see some large swells for early Fall.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 7-13

Pretty typical summer pattern for us at the moment - mid level wind swell, back ground south swells overlapping through the week.  Nothing to get that excited about, but something to ride.  High pressure in control bringing warm temps inland and the usual coastal fog.   Monsoon moisture is being drawn up by the southwestern high pressure interacting with low pressure to our north and northwest.  Watching a few disturbances in the Central and East Pacific.  In fact the National Hurricane Center is tracking 5 disturbances - which corresponds with the building El Niño influence.  Hopefully we will get some swell from these potential storms and not any high based thunderstorms which could create a lightning outbreak and wildfires.   More to come on all this in the week ahead.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 6-29

Swell from the south is starting to wind down, however we will still have multiple events through the week from an active corridor off New Zealand.   Waves will stay on the smaller side - probably 2ft@17 seconds the largest deep water swell to expect through the week.   Swell direction will vary from 195 to 211 degrees.  Most spots north of SF will not see much south as we have large wind driven waves over 10ft pushing down the coast along with gusty northwest winds over 25kts.  Wind swell might increase to 15 ft through about Wednesday, then taper off into the weekend.   Northwest winds are back strong as high pressure builds in so don't look for much in the way of clean conditions unless you are at a sheltered, south facing spot.  Water temps will tumble as the wind stays strong.  Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST - SOUTH WINDS DOWN THIS WEEK...

 Impressive run of south swells the past three weeks.  We still do have a couple more events this week, but much smaller than previous swells last week and early June.   Deep water heights should be around 2-3@15-17 seconds through much of the week.  Lighter winds to start the week will give way to stronger northwest winds towards the back half as high pressure builds.  El Niño quite evident now along the equator and far West Pacific as water temps continue to warm and influence storm production.   Plenty of swell ahead from the south for the rest of summer.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 6-7 - SOUTH SWELL OF THE CENTURY? DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE.....BUT.....

 By now depending on where you consume your surf forecast, you've heard we have a very strong south swell inbound starting tomorrow (for So Cal), filling in and pretty much pumping Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday.   I've heard nonsense like 11ft @19 seconds, 100 year swell, etc.   Is it going to be big?  Yes, it will actually be a very strong swell - and in the middle of quite a run of south swells over the past two weeks (Thank you building El Niño).  I  do think this swell will end up being one of the bigger swells of the past couple years, peaking around 4-5ft@19-20 seconds on Tuesday/Wednesday.  100 year swell?  Probably not.  Now a few factors to take into account.  First, the actual swell might end up coming in bigger than forecast.   It was a powerful storm that created it, down in the favorable east of New Zealand corridor.  What makes it stronger than most, winds, fetch and movement.  The storm was taking a favorable northeast track towards HI/So Cal swell windows, moving over an already disturbed ocean state thanks to these pre running south swells and when you have wind and storm moving in the same direction (virtual fetch) you get a significant swell event.  I'd say keep an eye on the buoys around Tuesday.  That will be a good indicator of what we are dealing with.  For Nor Cal, SF and points beyond - the real action will likely be later Tuesday and then all day Wednesday.  This is also the kind of swell event that will light up novelty, rare south swell points and reefs, so if you know, you know.  Winds will not be ideal - strong northwest flow is forecast most of the week.  Cya in the water.