UPDATED FORECAST - SOUTH WINDS DOWN THIS WEEK...

 Impressive run of south swells the past three weeks.  We still do have a couple more events this week, but much smaller than previous swells last week and early June.   Deep water heights should be around 2-3@15-17 seconds through much of the week.  Lighter winds to start the week will give way to stronger northwest winds towards the back half as high pressure builds.  El Niño quite evident now along the equator and far West Pacific as water temps continue to warm and influence storm production.   Plenty of swell ahead from the south for the rest of summer.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 6-7 - SOUTH SWELL OF THE CENTURY? DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE.....BUT.....

 By now depending on where you consume your surf forecast, you've heard we have a very strong south swell inbound starting tomorrow (for So Cal), filling in and pretty much pumping Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday.   I've heard nonsense like 11ft @19 seconds, 100 year swell, etc.   Is it going to be big?  Yes, it will actually be a very strong swell - and in the middle of quite a run of south swells over the past two weeks (Thank you building El Niño).  I  do think this swell will end up being one of the bigger swells of the past couple years, peaking around 4-5ft@19-20 seconds on Tuesday/Wednesday.  100 year swell?  Probably not.  Now a few factors to take into account.  First, the actual swell might end up coming in bigger than forecast.   It was a powerful storm that created it, down in the favorable east of New Zealand corridor.  What makes it stronger than most, winds, fetch and movement.  The storm was taking a favorable northeast track towards HI/So Cal swell windows, moving over an already disturbed ocean state thanks to these pre running south swells and when you have wind and storm moving in the same direction (virtual fetch) you get a significant swell event.  I'd say keep an eye on the buoys around Tuesday.  That will be a good indicator of what we are dealing with.  For Nor Cal, SF and points beyond - the real action will likely be later Tuesday and then all day Wednesday.  This is also the kind of swell event that will light up novelty, rare south swell points and reefs, so if you know, you know.  Winds will not be ideal - strong northwest flow is forecast most of the week.  Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 6-1, SOUTH FOR DAYS

 Jun 1.  About to see a long run of south swells from a very active storm track Down Under.  Long period swell already in the water today - running around 2-2.5ft @20 seconds from around 200 deg.  Swell will run through the week as two swells overlap.   Deep water heights should stay in the 2ft + range, with periods running from 15 - 20 seconds for the most part.  Swell direction will stay in the 200-205 degree zone.  For points north of Santa Cruz, big factor will be the ongoing northwest winds and larger north wind swell.  This will decay these inbound swells some, but given the long period energy, some decent waves will still show.  No let up in northwest winds through the week.  Water temps remain cold near shore - 48-51 degrees north of Jenner.   Bit warmer around SF at 53 degrees.  Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST - 5-21 - Also - El Niño Update

 Lighter winds showing up and down the CA Coast this morning as high pressure has weakened some allowing for fog and low clouds to reform.   Look for another round of pm winds SF north today and tomorrow and then trending lighter into the holiday weekend.  Decent size, short period wind swell remains the main swell, 10-11 ft @9-11 seconds from 320 plus degrees.  Background south swells remain around 2ft@16 seconds.  Looking for a possible up tick in the south swell by Monday, with deep water heights potentially 3@17 seconds - most of this energy will likely be felt from Santa Cruz south to LA.  Water temps are cold near shore - 49-50 degrees north of Sonoma County line and even a chilly 51 in SF.  This is from the past week or more of strong winds blowing and the upwelling machine in full force.  Finally, lot of hype about the upcoming El Niño event for fall and winter.  Plenty of online kooks predicting an end of the world Super El Niño.  Follow the facts and guidelines of the experts at NOAA who are for sure predicting El Niño to happen - in fact showing signs of formation already - however the strongest El Niño events, or Super El Niño's - are characterized by significant ocean-atmosphere coupling through the summer and it still remains to be seen whether this occurs in 2026.  Also not every El Niño is the same and does not ensure strong impacts.  Most past events do create more rain, snow, weather for CA and the Southwest, more storms equal more swells, but in a climate under siege because of our warming planet any weather impacts are highly variable.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 5-3

Late season northwest swell arrives today and will peak around 6-7@15 sec from 300+ degrees.  Wind are mostly calm with fog along the entire California Coast.   Small south in the background at around 2ft.  Northwest swell will fade into the start of the work week, while small south swells stay in the background through the period.   Winds do look to stay pretty calm most of the week.   Chance of rain late today into Monday and then a gradual increase in temps by late next week.   Cya in the water.