Wednesday, August 5, 2020

FOG-AUGUST - Updated Forecast

Tiny signs of hope for some swell late this weekend into early next week from the south.   Swell is radiating north from a storm that was down in the southeast Pacific late July into early August.  Expect arrival late on Sunday with deep water swell tiny but long period - 1-2 at 20 seconds from 183.   Swell will build and peak Monday at 2-2.6ft at 17-18 seconds and then she is gone.  Could see a couple more storms form and send swell our way for Mid August - just a model hope right now, if the storms behave as forecast they will get going starting this Friday through the weekend.   Will monitor.   Models also hinting at a Gulf of Alaska low pressure system starting tomorrow into Friday, that could potentially send swell our way.  Did notice a surface low pressure this morning forming in the Gulf so we might get some early season action from northeast Pacific in a few days.  Will also monitor.  Otherwise, look for north to northwest winds and fog to remain strong through the week - could see winds ease this weekend.   Cya in the water.   

Thursday, July 30, 2020

END OF JULY

Basically wind swell and small background south swells for the foreseeable future.   Ocean has warmed up with all the south wind and fog - mid to upper 50s most spots.   Look for fog and south to southwest flow to continue through end of the week.  Models are hinting at stronger northwest winds starting up again by the weekend - but not sure i'm buying into it.  The marine layer is pretty established so we may continue to see fog and south winds for a while.   Keep an eye on it.  If the northwest winds get going as forecast, might see an uptick in wind swell at least - but could also trash conditions.  Looking into the future - might see some southern hemisphere swell getting into 2nd week of August/mid August as storm activity picks up down south.  Looking more and more like fall and winter will be under the influence of a mild La Nina or neutral pattern.   That may have an impact on swell production in terms of size, but potentially nicer days condition wise.  These winters typically lean towards equal chance of normal or below normal precipitation, which isn't ideal given the dry winter past.   Have to see how it plays out.  In the meantime - small surf, lighter winds, favors the beach breaks that like south wind.  Cya in the water.  

Thursday, July 16, 2020

July doldrums.....

Wind swell is about all we have right now for any kind of wave to ride.  It's around 4-7 ft at 9-11 seconds depending on location - bigger northern part of the state.   Winds aren't bad today, blowing out of the northeast but will head back to the northwest/north direction tonight for points north of Jenner, might stay south to southwest for points south.  No sign of any southern hemisphere ground swell.   La Nina appears to be taking hold along the equator pushing east to west, which doesn't bode well for storm and swell production this coming fall.  Have to wait and see how it develops.  We could be looking at another fairly dry winter which is something we don't need.   La Nina winters tend to feature nicer weather for surfing, but less frequency of swells and size.  Water temps remain cool to the north, low 50s and mid 50s to even some low 60s SF south.   Hang in there, only another month and some change until September 1, the traditional start to the good surf season in Nor Cal.   Cya in the water.  

Thursday, July 2, 2020

GOOD SIZE SOUTH SWELL PUSHING IN LATE TONIGHT

Just in time for all the beaches to shut down from LA to Sonoma, solid south swell will be pushing in starting late tonight and lasting through Sunday.   Still have a decent pulse of the old south in the water this morning - 2-2.5ft at 17 from 190.  Some steep angled north wind swell at 6@10sec from 320.   Winds have shifted mostly south along the coast.   Late tonight early forerunners will be 2ft at 22 seconds, filling in Friday at 2-3 at 21 seconds.   Saturday, period drops and size should actually increase - 3-4ft at 18 seconds.   Swell direction about 192-195.   Winds should turn northwest for late week and into the weekend - but perhaps not as strong as earlier this week.   Could see this fluctuate with the marine layer established and south flow near the coast.   Check in the winds, plenty of swell to ride.  Cya in the water.  


Tuesday, June 16, 2020

UPDATED FORECAST - WINDY!

June in Nor Cal.  Wind and more wind.  We might see a big increase in the size of the wind swell the next couple days - especially north of Bodega Bay.   Also tracking a couple small south to south east swells to come in late week, on the small side, 2ft or so, but long periods.  Might be enough for south facing spots to have some fun waves if the swell trains don't get hammered coming in against the northwest winds.  Get what you can, long way to go until Fall.   Cya in the water.