UPDATED FORECAST - 5-21 - Also - El Niño Update

 Lighter winds showing up and down the CA Coast this morning as high pressure has weakened some allowing for fog and low clouds to reform.   Look for another round of pm winds SF north today and tomorrow and then trending lighter into the holiday weekend.  Decent size, short period wind swell remains the main swell, 10-11 ft @9-11 seconds from 320 plus degrees.  Background south swells remain around 2ft@16 seconds.  Looking for a possible up tick in the south swell by Monday, with deep water heights potentially 3@17 seconds - most of this energy will likely be felt from Santa Cruz south to LA.  Water temps are cold near shore - 49-50 degrees north of Sonoma County line and even a chilly 51 in SF.  This is from the past week or more of strong winds blowing and the upwelling machine in full force.  Finally, lot of hype about the upcoming El Niño event for fall and winter.  Plenty of online kooks predicting an end of the world Super El Niño.  Follow the facts and guidelines of the experts at NOAA who are for sure predicting El Niño to happen - in fact showing signs of formation already - however the strongest El Niño events, or Super El Niño's - are characterized by significant ocean-atmosphere coupling through the summer and it still remains to be seen whether this occurs in 2026.  Also not every El Niño is the same and does not ensure strong impacts.  Most past events do create more rain, snow, weather for CA and the Southwest, more storms equal more swells, but in a climate under siege because of our warming planet any weather impacts are highly variable.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 5-3

Late season northwest swell arrives today and will peak around 6-7@15 sec from 300+ degrees.  Wind are mostly calm with fog along the entire California Coast.   Small south in the background at around 2ft.  Northwest swell will fade into the start of the work week, while small south swells stay in the background through the period.   Winds do look to stay pretty calm most of the week.   Chance of rain late today into Monday and then a gradual increase in temps by late next week.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 4-11 - WINTER RETURNS

Strong storm system will move across Central and Nor Cal later today producing 1-3in of rain and heavy snow in the Sierra before exiting sometime late Sunday.   Mix of long period south swell in the water (2.5@17 from 200) and north west swell (5.6@14 from 300).  Winds are south and will get stronger as the day goes on and the front moves through.   This storm will bring a shorter period, larger, west swell in on Sunday - likely 10ft@11-12 seconds.   More rain, bigger waves north of the Bay Area for the next few days.   That west swell will gradually fade into next week while pulses of south swell continue at 2-3ft @14 seconds.   Winds will begin to ramp up again from the northwest once this storm system moves out of the region.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 3-26

Our hot, dry March will come to a close next week as rain returns to most of CA starting about Tuesday and go on for 3-4 days.  Heaviest amounts Santa Cruz north.   Surf wise - lot of wind right now in the outer waters (gale warnings up) generating mostly large wind swell - north of Bodega around 10@10 sec.  Smaller SF south.   Small south in the water at 2ft - but getting smacked down once in gets around Pt Conception.  Pretty much look for average size wind swell the rest of the week into early next - along with background south swells.  Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 3-10 - FIRST SOUTH IN THE WATER

 Long period south swell forerunners moving up the West Coast today - offshore buoys from Santa Cruz south to Oceanside reporting 2ft@22 plus sec from 187-194 deg.   SF north, just mostly large wind swell for the day as the north west winds continue to howl.  Swell will start to fill in better from SC south on Wednesday - peaking around 3@17-19 sec on Thursday.  Leftovers around Friday into Saturday, but smaller.  North of SC - swell will probably start to show at good south facing spots Thursday into Friday - might lose some steam due to the forecasted northwest winds through the period - but not a bad starter for the season.   High pressure firmly in control now through the next 10 days.   Will it rain again this season?   Not looking likely, although long term models way out point to one more pattern change late March into early April - will see if that actually comes to pass.   Cya in the water.