Thursday, July 11, 2019

NEXT NZ SWELL IN THE CUE, SMALL NW

Current NZ southwest swell fading today, but still decent at 3ft 15-16 sec from 190.  Look for the last in the series starting late Saturday into Sunday/Monday - initially long periods in the 22 sec band late Saturday, then 2-3 ft at 20-21 sec on Sunday.  Size/period fades Monday.  We also have a mid period, off season northwest swell/wind swell running in today and tomorrow - should peak at 4-5ft at 9-10 seconds.   This is from a Gulf Low that has been circulating in the North East Pac for the past week and has finally faded to be replaced by high pressure.  North winds will increase today and into most of next week as the summertime thermal low sets up shop again over the California Central Valley and the gradient pressure difference between the two drives the wind.  Cya in the water.

Saturday, July 6, 2019

NEXT NZ SWELL INBOUND, HURRICANE SWELL FADES

Swell from Hurricane Barbara topping out today - 2-3 ft at 12-13 seconds from 180.   Secondary NZ swell is in the water as well - 3ft at 15-16 seconds from 200-210.  Bigger NZ swell is en route for late tomorrow and will come in 2ft at 20-21 seconds from 210.    This swell will peak Monday and Tuesday with size about the same - 2-3ft at 18-19 seconds.  Not much relief in the northwest winds, especially north of Jenner until the start of next week as high pressure moves more over CA and reduces the pressure gradient.   Until then, pretty strong northwest winds expected, perhaps a touch lighter near the Bay Area.   Plenty to ride for sure, just need to find some shelter from the winds. Cya in the water.

Saturday, June 29, 2019

TRACKING NEW ZEALAND SWELL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK

Good size storm system near New Zealand last week has created a swell that is moving north and should arrive around our area early next week.  Long period forerunners on Monday - 1-2ft at 20-21 sec from 214.  Decent bit of west in this swell given it's origins.  Swell will build further on Tuesday to 2-2.5ft at 18-19 sec.   Being a slow fade into next Thursday beyond that.   Not much relief in winds for the week ahead - will remain steady from the northwest as is typical for this time of year.  Only upside will be ongoing wind swell to give us something to ride.   Water temps not that bad 53-55 north to south, although pockets of 49 deg water exist near shore once you get north of Jenner.  That's about all we have for the moment - after this NZ swell it's going quiet again Down Under.   Tropical storm Alvin in the East Pac is first named storm of the season but not a swell producer for us.   Cya in the water.  

Sunday, June 2, 2019

JUNE!

Fog at the coast, warm inland.  June.  Look for more fog than usual (if that's even possible in Nor Cal) this summer due in part to the very cold ocean temps.   Ideal for fog creation as northwest winds blow over the open ocean.   Today, winds have reversed to a south to southeast flow.   Swell is a mix - fading south, windswell and later incoming Central Pacific South swell.   Fading swell is around 1.5 to 1.9 at 14 seconds, windswell 4-6 at 9-10 seconds.   The Central Pac swell should come in later around 2ft at 17.  This swell will be our primary swell for the next few days, sticking around through Thursday as a reinforcing shot comes through Tuesday.  Swell direction will be focused about 190-197 degrees.   Winds look to stay strong northwest over the outer waters through the extended period, but near shore with the fog and local eddy's could see lighter winds from the south.   Highly variable so check the wind links on this page before you venture out.   Water temps are cold - 48 north of Bodega,  around 53 SF.   Cya in the water.  

Tuesday, May 21, 2019

LARGE WEST SWELL INBOUND....UNSETTLED LATE MAY CONDITIONS....

If you've been keeping track, we've actually had measurable rain now in CA for almost seven months.  Pretty crazy.   Large surf and a lot of wind is on tap for the rest of the week as swell trains roll in from  low pressure anchored in the Gulf of AK, rotating spokes of energy at CA every few days.   Look for deepwater swell Wednesday 15-16ft at 12 seconds, gradually fading through the weekend but hovering around 8-10ft with howling northwest winds through the period.  That will tumble water temps again!   In short, plenty to ride if you know where to look and can get out of the wind.  Cya in the water.

Tuesday, May 7, 2019

STRONG SW SWELL PEAKING TODAY.....

Deepwater swell is 3.5 at 15 from 195 - quite solid this AM.   Current swell is peaking today and will have a gradual fade into the back half of the week.   Meanwhile, a new northwest swell and another round of southwest swells will move in.   The northwest will come in for Wed/Thurs and the long period forerunners of our next southwest swell will start to show late week, into Saturday, then getting pretty solid for Sunday/Monday.   Good run of waves for sure and the southwest swell should stick around until mid month.  Winds look light today, variable depending on location from southwest winds to north winds.  Stronger north winds tomorrow as high pressure builds in, but then fading wind speeds into the weekend.   The wind pattern is very hard to nail down at present due in part to the deep marine layer and various disturbances passing to our north and east.   Cya in the water.

Wednesday, May 1, 2019

UPDATED FORECAST - COUPLE SOUTH SWELLS

Southern Hemi swells hitting this week.  Today you'll find deep water swell around 2ft at 14-15 secs from 190.   Stronger south swell is forecast for this coming weekend - building Sunday at 2ft @18 sec, peaking Monday/Tuesday with deep water swell 3ft at 14-15 seconds.   Swell direction around 187deg.   Winds are a bit lighter than they've been, but will remain from the northwest given the time of year.   Something to ride at least at the south facing spots.   Cya in the water.  

Thursday, April 18, 2019

UPDATED FORECAST - LATE APRIL & BEYOND....

Spring time northwest winds for the foreseeable future.   Very cold water temps with all the upwelling.   Upper 40s north of Jenner.  Mid period northwest swell will continue through the week staying between 5-8ft with periods 11-13 seconds.   Bigger the further north you go.   High pressure is assuming it's place in the northeast Pacific, typical of the season.   I'll keep an eye on the southern hemisphere and update as those swells start working north.   Same goes for anything unusual from the north.   But expect reports to be a bit more infrequent until later in the summer.   Enjoy your Spring and Summer - let's all pray for a good south swell season.   Cya in the water.  

Saturday, April 6, 2019

UPDATED FORECAST - APRIL 6

Very large northwest swell was showing at outer buoys last night - 20plus feet at 17 sec at Papa Buoy.    Swell will roll in late day/tonight and peak tomorrow.   Look for deepwater 12-15ft Bay Area, 14-20ft further north.   Look for south to southwest winds through Monday night.   Strong northwest winds next Tuesday/Wednesday with fairly large surf continuing.   In short, it's Spring, but doesn't really look and feel like it other than those northwest winds creeping into the picture next week.   Unsettled pattern to continue through most of next week.   Waves around for sure if you know where to look!  Cya in the water.  

Sunday, March 24, 2019

UPDATED FORECAST - 3-24/STORMY PATTERN CONTINUES.....

Solid West swell still showing today 10ft @ 15 seconds from 290.   Look for swell to slowly wind down into Monday but remain good size.  South to southeast winds are blowing light right now but will strengthen overnight as the next storm system takes aim at Nor Cal.   Look for rain and south winds Monday, surf remaining 8-10ft @14.   Southeast winds on Tuesday as swell drops to 7-8ft.   Next storm system rolls in Tuesday night with rain likely.   Rain showers Wednesday and southwest winds.   Light northwest winds showing for Thursday with swell 7-9ft.   Plenty of size, lots of wind from different directions but there will be places that are rideable.   Cya in the water.

Saturday, March 16, 2019

UPDATED FORECAST 3-16

Light winds will continue until Tuesday, especially for morning sessions along the Coast.  Look for mid period west/northwest swell to stay around 5-7 ft - 12-14 seconds through the period.  High pressure will break down Tuesday giving way to a series of storms that will move through the region through next weekend.   Nothing that strong, light rain, but winds will ramp up from the south/southeast Tuesday and then then shift back to the northwest on Wednesday.   All in all, not a bad run of conditions for Mid March.   Cya in the water.

Friday, March 1, 2019

MARCH

March 1 - the end of the "good" wave season.   However, pretty clean today with northeast winds and long period swell 5-8ft at 17 seconds from 305.   Winds should be good through tomorrow morning and then shift southeast as the next storm comes ashore later tomorrow morning bringing rain to the Bay Area.   Swell will start to fade Saturday night and looks to remain on the smallish side through next Tuesday with periods of rain on and off through that time frame.   Winds will vary, light west to to northwest in between storms and ramp up from the southeast as fronts push ashore.  N Pac staying pretty active into March so one would expect better than average swell production from the region.   Stay tuned and cya in the water.

Sunday, February 24, 2019

UPDATED FORECAST - 2-24

Another series of storms is taking aim on Northern and Central CA - with rain and wind forecast on and off for the next week.   Surprisingly, fairly small surf expected, even with all the storminess.   Part of the reason for this is that the systems are very warm and moist and lacking a really strong or defined low pressure system driving winds in the open ocean.  As a result, looking for west to northwest swell through Thursday at around 4-7 ft, with mid periods - 10-13 seconds.  Winds will be strong south tonight through Monday night - potentially turn northeast on Tuesday and then back to strong south to southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday.   Lighter northwest winds forecast Thursday.   So this type of set up might favor the beach breaks overall.   Keep an eye on it - check the winds.  Get what you can because Spring is lurking.  I've got a feeling we're going to be in for a very windy,  cold March-May once the pattern starts to shift and high pressure begins to establish itself in the N Pac.   Cya in the water.  

Friday, February 15, 2019

PAPA BUOY - 29FT AT 16SEC

Another giant swell hitting the outer buoys.  Unfortunately - just too much weather, wind and general storminess to contend with for a few more days.   Episodes of rain/showers off and on and no real decent conditions.  Might find a few places to ride if you have time to scout around - otherwise - might see some calmer conditions going into next week for a few days as high pressure tries to gain control.   Until then, get what you can.   Cya in the water.

Saturday, February 2, 2019

BIG STORMY

A very strong low pressure system is just offshore Pt Arena this am, bringing winds, rain to CA.   Swell is around 12 ft @11 - with strong southeast winds.   Look for rain turning to showers all day long with strong winds.   Winds will turn southwest and then west through Monday with another swell rolling through at 8-10 at 14 seconds.   Much bigger west swell for middle of next week when deep water swell jumps to 12-15 ft on Tuesday.   Winds will northwest turning north by that time.  Very cold temps to come in Sunday into Monday as another system drops down out of BC.   Plenty of swell, just need to pick your spots.   Cya in the water.

Thursday, January 24, 2019

HIGH PRESSURE - MID SIZE WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELLS

High pressure in control until at least early February.   Next week or so will feature north/northeast/northwest winds at times, possibly clean AM sessions and series of west to northwest swells moving through our waters.   One of those is peaking today at 8-9ft at 14 seconds.  Afterwards, look for the swell to remain in the 5-7ft range with periods of 14-15 seconds through at least Monday.   Overall, nice break from all the rain and rogue conditions, enjoy it because when the Active Phase of the MJO heats up again in early February we'll probably see a run of stormy weather.  Cya in the water.

Thursday, January 17, 2019

WHOA - CA BUOY - 33ft@17sec!

XXL large inbound swell train 350 miles out at CA Buoy.   Biggest reading this am was at 33ft!.   Swell will arrive later and continue through tomorrow.   Don't really see things cleaning up until maybe Sunday when winds turn more northwest and high pressure starts to build into the region giving us dry weather all of next week.   Until then - more rain today on and off (not as much wind) and then looks rainy off and on through the weekend.   Might be some knooks and crannies working if you know where to look.  Cya in the water.

Friday, January 11, 2019

UPDATED FORECAST - Plenty of swell and southeast winds

Happy New Year.   Stormy pattern setting back up for the foreseeable future.  We will have on and off rain events through at least the middle of next week and likely beyond.   Plenty of swell trains with mostly west swells through the period, biggest looks like Saturday and then again on Monday.   Winds are going to stay pretty consistent from the south/southeast/east depending on frontal passage - so some spots will remain clean, others not so much.   Plenty of options.   One note - Pt Arena buoy appears to have stopped transmitting overnight - not sure if this is temporary or it's come off its mooring.   Will monitor.   Cya in the water.