UPDATED FORECAST 10-27, waiting on a pattern change.....

Staying small through the weekend, with some pulses of south/south west swell rolling in that might provide something to ride at the summer breaks.   Very small northwest wind swell at 3-4ft @11 seconds in the water.   South swell to build to 2 ft @18-19 seconds tonight.  It's cold, as a continental airmass has settled in over the region and will get a reinforcing shot of cold air Saturday into Sunday with locally strong off shore winds perhaps making it to the coast.   Water temps have dropped back to the low 50s, bit warmer Bay Area south.    So small, windy throughout the weekend.   Keeping an eye on mid to late next week for the jet stream to reorganize, westerly winds ramp up and bring rain, wind and swell to the West Coast starting potentially mid week, but might be more like next weekend.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-23

 Staying small this week as the N Pac Jetstream re-organizes - probably see a larger pattern change after Halloween.  Until then, background south swells continue and smaller northwest and north wind swells will be in the water along with stronger north to northwest winds.   Those winds should let up some later this week.  Small chances of rain on and off this week - mostly north of Sonoma County.   A good week to get some stuff done.  Cya in the water.  

12@24 seconds.....!

Northern Buoys are bombing already early this am as a powerful long period swell builds in.  We don't see swell periods in the 24 -25sec range often but that's been showing at the Cape Mendo and Pt Arena Buoys for a few hours now.  Given how large the early forerunners, think this swell will beat the forecast size wise over the next two days.   Light winds today and tomorrow, should be some pretty epic spots. Cya in the water.  

XXL SWELL INBOUND, UPDATED FORECAST 10-17

 Solid northwest swell around today - 8-9ft @14 seconds from around 290 - biggest north of Jenner.  All eyes to mid week when swell from Extra Tropical Storm Bolevan builds in.  Forerunners after dark on Wednesday - 5-6ft @22 seconds from 295deg - jumping up quite quickly on Thursday to 13-14ft@18 seconds.  Then a gradual fade into the weekend.   Weather looks to cooperate for the most part as we have high pressure overhead and forecasted north to offshore winds.  Not sure the models are doing a good job of picking up on the locally dense fog in spots which will affect vis and wind direction - so worth keeping an eye on.   Winds will drop next Saturday, along with swell size.   Pattern changes back to low pressure overhead and slight chance of rain next weekend with a better chance the following week.   Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 10-12

Large northwest swell winding down today, but still solid at 10ft@13 north of Bodega, smaller towards OB and Santa Cruz.   Swell will continue to fade into Friday before the next round of swell arrives, first a moderate period northwest swell for early in the weekend which will peak at 8-9ft@13 and then a longer period, bigger swell potentially from Typhoon Bolaven which turned extra tropical this week and is presently streaming under the Aleutians in the Gulf of Alaska.   Classic El Niño set up in the N Pac right now with a strong jet stream zipping along 40 latitude north with 150-170kt winds feeding various low pressure systems chugging across.  Perfect set up for swell production.   Chance of rain begins on Friday north of Sonoma County and that rain may make it down only as far as Marin.   Better chance of rain area wide by early next week.   Winds north today over the outer waters as high pressure briefly moves over the area and then should remain light south to southwest through next Monday.   Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 10-9

 Storm system about to come onshore early this morning with some mid period swell behind it for Tuesday into mid week.  Winds have turned to the south/southeast and will blow from that direction until trough passage later tonight.  Winds will turn strongly from the northwest for Tuesday/Wednesday.  Small south swell in the water right now at 2.6@14 seconds.  Northwest Gulf Swell will build in quickly on Tuesday - 6-8@15 seconds from 319 (steep angle, Bay Area will be heavily shadowed) - followed by another pulse of swell mid week with a better angle (305 deg), deepwater 9-11 ft @13-14 seconds.  Winds will remain from the north to northwest until Friday, turn southwest with more rain chances headed into next weekend.  The northern branch of the jet stream is quite active now and storms are going to ripple through the strong jet all week.   No atmospheric rivers mind you, not yet at least, but a strong sign that El Niño is starting to have an impact on storm and swell production in the Pacific Basin.  Could be a wild ride once we get into the heart of the winter.   Plenty to ride this week, just need to find some protection from the winds depending on the direction.  Cya in the water.