UPDATED HOLIDAY FORECAST

Staying pretty large this week as rain and swell roll throughout CA.   We are on the downside of a fairly large northwest swell running at 10ft 15 sec from 290 deg with northeast winds for offshore conditions at most spots.  Swell will wind down just a touch tomorrow - but staying around 9-10 ft at 13 seconds.  Wednesday, the next large swell builds at 8-10ft at 21 seconds - peaking Thursday at 15-17ft from 295 to 305 degrees.  Note all these swells largest north of Pt Reyes, especially the mid week swell which will be shadowed a bit by Pt Reyes and the Farallon Islands.  Mid week swell will do a slow fade into the New Years weekend but stay on the larger side through the period.   Winds are going to be highly variable as we have brief breaks of high pressure and systems coming ashore - so look for south winds as front approaches and north to northwest winds as front passes.  Could see some light offshore winds for AM sessions.   Next chance of rain is mostly North Bay mid week, followed by another storm late week and late weekend.  So the pattern is pretty progressive.  Stay safe out there, wear a mask and cya in the water.  

STAYING BIG.....

 N Pac keeps pumping out swell - new swell filled in overnight and is peaking today at around 12-15ft @17 seconds from 305.  Quite solid.  Winds aren't bad in the Bay Area, but rain and south wind the rule north of Bodega Bay spreading south through Wednesday night.   Swell will start to fade some on Thursday - 10-12 ft as period drops to 13 sec.   By Friday, new long period forerunners of our next swell show at 6-8ft at 18 seconds, while the old swell sticks around at 9-11 ft.   Saturday/Sunday should feature high pressure, lighter winds, surf both days around 8-10 ft.   So plenty to ride - after the rain today/tonight - high pressure looks to build in for the rest of the week.   Might see an uptick in northwest winds Thursday/Friday.   Be safe out there, cya in the water.   

PUMPING....

 Current swell is 12-14 ft at 17 seconds - mix of wind conditions depending on where you are.   For the most part north to northeast winds.   Swell will gradually fade overnight and be around on Wednesday as a new, even longer period swell starts to run in.   That swell will have early forerunners 2-4 ft at 23 seconds - quickly building to 6-8 ft at 22 seconds Wednesday evening.   Thursday will be large - 11-13 ft at 20 seconds and then being a slow fade into Friday and next weekend.   Swell direction around 290-308 degrees.  All n all winds don't look that bad the rest of the week with high pressure firmly in control.  No rain in sight through at least mid December.  Plenty of surf on tap - cya in the water. 

CLEAN CONDITIONS...TRACKING XL SWELL FOR THANKSGIVING

Super clean this weekend with mid period northwest swell around 5-6 ft at 12-13 seconds.  East winds.  High pressure in control for the next week with the storm track along the Oregon border.   Look for an uptick in size for Sunday - 6-7 ft and bigger still for Monday at 9-11ft - then all eyes on mid week as models are forecasting a very large swell to impact our waters around Wednesday.   Early indications are for deepwater swell in the 18ft range north of Bodega Bay, probably 14-16ft around the Bay Area.   With north winds through next week AM sessions should feature clean conditions, while PM sessions will see more wind, maybe onshore at times.   Overall, plenty to ride.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - XL SWELL CONTINUES....

XL swell continues today - but down from yesterday's peak at 20 ft @14 seconds!   It's running 12-14 ft at 13 seconds today from 325.  Strong north to northwest winds making a mess of everything except for spots sheltered from the nw winds.  Swell will begin to fade tonight and more so on Monday, dropping to 9-11 ft and then additional fade through Thursday but still staying rideable in the 5-7ft range.   Winds will back down some tomorrow but still be gusty, fade more Tuesday into Thursday.   Storm door looks to open more next weekend and into Mid Nov - with much higher amounts of rain now forecast - so may have a period of junky storm surf with south winds next week.   Until then, plenty to ride.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - HALLOWEEN

 Waiting on the next swell train(s) to arrive which will happen tomorrow.  Today should feature mostly short period junky wind swell and probably some north to northwest winds with it.  Winds lighter near shore this morning, so if you had to get wet - now would be the time.  Sunday will start out slow again and then look for early forerunners in the afternoon (mostly Sonoma Coast north), evening Bay Area, around 3-5ft at 23 seconds.  Swell will quickly build Sunday night, period drops and Monday should see northwest swell about 5-7 ft at 18 seconds.   At the same time there is a long period south swell due to show at 2ft @20 seconds.  After today, winds look decent until Wednesday.  Swells should begin to fade on Tuesday but the northwest swell might linger.  N swell direction around 300, S swell around 188.  So should be a nice run of clean long period swells, nothing huge, fun size.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-16

Hope you like the blog refresh - long overdue for an update.   Nice fall day across the area with east winds, warm temps - mid period northwest swell in the water - about 5-6 ft at 11 seconds, steep angle at 325 deg.  North winds going to remain in the picture for at least the next seven days as high pressure remains locked over CA.   Storm track is not very active, but the winds and distant storms enough to keep mid period swells around 10-11 sec coming in.   Maybe an uptick Saturday, but otherwise should stay around 4-6 ft through the period.  Background south swells in the picture as well - nothing over 2ft, but longer periods 14-18 seconds through Monday.   Winds will be better for morning sessions, bit more onshore flow for pm sessions.  Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST - MORE SWELL FOR A FEW DAYS....

Sorry about the lack of updates - surfing too much!  Hope you got some over the past week as northwest and southwest swells crossed our shores.  We are starting to see the arrival of swell from Hurricane Marie, which should max out tomorrow through Wednesday at 3-4 ft at 13 seconds (deepwater) from 180.   We also have a northwest Gulf swell in the water at 6ft at 13 seconds from 290.   Marie swell will show late and into overnight and be more present Monday - especially in the Bay Area.  Gulf swell will slowly fade through Wednesday.  Winds look fairly typical for October - light northeast to northwest.   As we head into next weekend looks like a major pattern change will begin to take place giving us badly needed and first rainfall of the season as a low pressure system drops across the West Coast entraining remnants from Hurricane Marie in the process.   Winds should pick up strong from the south late week.   N Pac is going to stay active so look for more swell into October.  Cya in the water. 

FIRST BIG NW SWELL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

 Tracking a big storm system with a dynamic fetch moving out of the Bering Sea and into the Gulf of Alaska this morning.  Dynamic fetch means the storm wind & swell are moving in the same direction which usually leads to large wave heights.  Models are forecasting deepwater swell of 14ft at 15 seconds starting Thursday.   Still a bit early, but will dial in more closely over the next 48 hours.  I've added a new buoy to the forecast links - Gulf of Alaska Buoy.   Note that West Oregon and Papa Buoys remain offline and need to be repositioned by NOAA once they are back on the schedule.  That means the CA Buoy will be our outer water buoy for the start to the season.   The Gulf of AK buoy will give a sense of ocean swell far out in the N Pac.  Generally small swell until mid week - perhaps a slight increase in wind swell over the next few days and very small south in the background.  Winds look variable depending on fog intrusion and ongoing high pressure vs low pressure in our region.   Southwest to northwest depending on your location.   

UPDATED FORECAST SEPT 15

 New mid period Gulf of AK swell filling in slowly this am - buoys are showing 4-6ft at 11 seconds of deepwater swell.  This one will peak overnight and begin a slow fade through the week.  Winds look to remain mostly light through the week - don't see an uptick until the weekend with offshore and/or northwest flow gets going as low pressure moves into the Great Basin and we get those winds rushing from low pressure to high pressure.  Gonna stay sort of small all week.  Starting to see more signs of N Pac swell late in September as well as tracking a few more southwest swells.  We may close out the month with some decent surf.  More to come on that.  Cya in the water.  

SEPTEMBER!

We made it through another Nor Cal summer.  Certainly a summer like none before.   On cue, we have our first small northwest swell due in here mid week - deepwater swell 4-6 at 15 seconds from 310 starting Wednesday night, peaking Thursday at 4-6 ft at 13 seconds.  Background south swells through the week around two feet.   Winds look to remain light south to northwest on and off through the week - may strengthen out of the northwest for the weekend.   Cya in the water.  

SEPTEMBER LOOMS....

 Hope everyone is safe and experienced no loss due to the fires that continue to burn across Nor Cal.   The weather over the past few days has helped immensely and firefighters are getting containment lines around most of the major blazes.  Surf wise, as we move close to September keeping an eye on the Nor Pac for signs of life.   Nothing on the maps yet, just northwest winds and larger wind swell for the rest of the week.   Small south swell is in the water but mostly lost under the dominant wind and steep wind swell.  It does appear likely we are moving into La Nina this year - which does not bode well for rain production or a lot of major swells.   Think we might see an early season of rain, especially north of Sonoma County, but as we move well into fall and winter forecasts call for normal to below normal amounts.   Since La Nina winters tend to be drier and colder, we could see more clean days, smaller to mid size surf.   Like all of you, will have to see how things unfold.  I'll update as we move into September.  Until then, be safe and I'll cya in the water.  

FOG-AUGUST - Updated Forecast

Tiny signs of hope for some swell late this weekend into early next week from the south.   Swell is radiating north from a storm that was down in the southeast Pacific late July into early August.  Expect arrival late on Sunday with deep water swell tiny but long period - 1-2 at 20 seconds from 183.   Swell will build and peak Monday at 2-2.6ft at 17-18 seconds and then she is gone.  Could see a couple more storms form and send swell our way for Mid August - just a model hope right now, if the storms behave as forecast they will get going starting this Friday through the weekend.   Will monitor.   Models also hinting at a Gulf of Alaska low pressure system starting tomorrow into Friday, that could potentially send swell our way.  Did notice a surface low pressure this morning forming in the Gulf so we might get some early season action from northeast Pacific in a few days.  Will also monitor.  Otherwise, look for north to northwest winds and fog to remain strong through the week - could see winds ease this weekend.   Cya in the water.   

END OF JULY

Basically wind swell and small background south swells for the foreseeable future.   Ocean has warmed up with all the south wind and fog - mid to upper 50s most spots.   Look for fog and south to southwest flow to continue through end of the week.  Models are hinting at stronger northwest winds starting up again by the weekend - but not sure i'm buying into it.  The marine layer is pretty established so we may continue to see fog and south winds for a while.   Keep an eye on it.  If the northwest winds get going as forecast, might see an uptick in wind swell at least - but could also trash conditions.  Looking into the future - might see some southern hemisphere swell getting into 2nd week of August/mid August as storm activity picks up down south.  Looking more and more like fall and winter will be under the influence of a mild La Nina or neutral pattern.   That may have an impact on swell production in terms of size, but potentially nicer days condition wise.  These winters typically lean towards equal chance of normal or below normal precipitation, which isn't ideal given the dry winter past.   Have to see how it plays out.  In the meantime - small surf, lighter winds, favors the beach breaks that like south wind.  Cya in the water.  

July doldrums.....

Wind swell is about all we have right now for any kind of wave to ride.  It's around 4-7 ft at 9-11 seconds depending on location - bigger northern part of the state.   Winds aren't bad today, blowing out of the northeast but will head back to the northwest/north direction tonight for points north of Jenner, might stay south to southwest for points south.  No sign of any southern hemisphere ground swell.   La Nina appears to be taking hold along the equator pushing east to west, which doesn't bode well for storm and swell production this coming fall.  Have to wait and see how it develops.  We could be looking at another fairly dry winter which is something we don't need.   La Nina winters tend to feature nicer weather for surfing, but less frequency of swells and size.  Water temps remain cool to the north, low 50s and mid 50s to even some low 60s SF south.   Hang in there, only another month and some change until September 1, the traditional start to the good surf season in Nor Cal.   Cya in the water.  

GOOD SIZE SOUTH SWELL PUSHING IN LATE TONIGHT

Just in time for all the beaches to shut down from LA to Sonoma, solid south swell will be pushing in starting late tonight and lasting through Sunday.   Still have a decent pulse of the old south in the water this morning - 2-2.5ft at 17 from 190.  Some steep angled north wind swell at 6@10sec from 320.   Winds have shifted mostly south along the coast.   Late tonight early forerunners will be 2ft at 22 seconds, filling in Friday at 2-3 at 21 seconds.   Saturday, period drops and size should actually increase - 3-4ft at 18 seconds.   Swell direction about 192-195.   Winds should turn northwest for late week and into the weekend - but perhaps not as strong as earlier this week.   Could see this fluctuate with the marine layer established and south flow near the coast.   Check in the winds, plenty of swell to ride.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - WINDY!

June in Nor Cal.  Wind and more wind.  We might see a big increase in the size of the wind swell the next couple days - especially north of Bodega Bay.   Also tracking a couple small south to south east swells to come in late week, on the small side, 2ft or so, but long periods.  Might be enough for south facing spots to have some fun waves if the swell trains don't get hammered coming in against the northwest winds.  Get what you can, long way to go until Fall.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - END OF MAY IS ACTIVE

While northwest winds have been savage, looking towards tomorrow into the weekend, they will begin to shift east to south as a low pressure system approaches the CA Coast bringing a chance of thunderstorms and rain on and off through late Saturday.   We have two new south swells building today - one from 200 deg and the other from 188.   The second, steeper swell looks potentially pretty fun with deepwater swell forecast at 3ft plus with long periods initially at 19-20 seconds Friday dropping into Saturday.   The more "west" south, a touch smaller but long periods from Thursday to Friday.   At the same time, very active North Pacific is sending a pulse of northwest swell from 298 deg, building late Friday and fading into Sunday.   That swell will be biggest north, 6-8 ft at 14 seconds Friday into Saturday.   Northwest winds will return by Sunday.   More action from the southern hemisphere looks to continue into the first week of June.  Plenty of surf on tap, some weather,  better winds.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - 5-16

Another late season storm system will come onshore later today with rain and south wind into Monday.   Long period south swell is not showing at buoys yet, but is forecast to build later today starting at 2ft 21 seconds.  From the looks of it, very late.  South sticks around and fills in tomorrow, while at the same time the first of a series of west swells also builds.   The first, will come in around 5 ft at 14-15 seconds, the second, 5ft at 11 seconds.  Both west swells from around 295 degrees.   The south from 200-204 deg. Winds are probably gonna be the lightest today from the south.  Switching to southwest to west tomorrow and Monday.  Then back to typical northwest flow.   So, plenty to ride, winds might make it tricky.  Be safe and make sure to stay at least six feet from others when outside.  Cya in the water.

BACK AT IT - UPDATED FORECAST

Hope everyone is safe and sane.  As a few more places to surf are coming online, felt it was a good time to start updating again.  We do have a pretty decent south/southeast swell headed our way, in the water and moving north.   Probably see some early forerunners very late Friday (and possibly overnight) and then starting to fill in Saturday at 2-3ft at 19 seconds - from about 195.  Swell will fill in more Sunday and Monday with deep water heights pushing 3-4 feet at 15-18 seconds.  So could be quite solid.  Winds actually will start to wind down some headed into the weekend - light northwest on Saturday, changing to light southwest for Sunday and south on Monday.  Southern wind shifts as a result of a pretty impressive late season storm that will come onshore Monday into Wednesday with a decent soaking rain region wide - especially North Bay and points north.  Have a persistent northwest swell hanging around through the period - 5-8 feet (bigger north) at 11-13 seconds.   So plenty to ride, check you winds and be safe out there.  Cya in the water.

NO SURF FOR YOU

Well, good luck surfing as most Bay Area Counties and elsewhere have closed the beaches.   At least it's Spring, can't expect very good surf for the foreseeable future as it is.   If you can walk or ride a bike to the beach, it would appear you're ok.   Just practice social distancing and use your head.   You may notice a lot of the offshore buoys are offline or not reporting.   Seems like the system is falling into disrepair - hoping that NOAA fixes and has everything back up before next Fall.   Stay safe and hang in there.   I'm taking a hiatus from reports until we get the all clear.  

MARCH

And just like that, the winter surfing season is about done - or is it? The N Pac still shows some signs of life at least through mid month and then after that - we will likely be fully into Spring.  Relentless north winds are going to keep blowing until at least tonight, and then gradually release their hold on us through the end of the week with a definitive shift in the wind direction to the south and southeast as a Gulf of AK low pressure systems sets it's course towards us.  Not much rain expected sadly, but we might see some from late Friday through Saturday.  Couple of mid period northwest swells will move through the waters - one today, 8-9ft at 14 seconds and another Friday at 9-11 at 15 seconds (deep water).   Southern hemisphere swells look to pick up towards mid month as well, since the S Pac has been very active as they start into Fall Down Under and we transition to Spring.  So plenty of swell around and lighter winds for a change.  Cya in the water.

SPRING? UPDATED FORECAST 2-19

High pressure in control and a month without rain.  Looking like this February will go down as the driest on record unless we get some precipitation between now and the end of month.  Surf conditions aren't much better - small waves, spring time winds, especially north of Bay Area.   We should see a few days of lighter winds starting today and tomorrow but then they will ramp back up Friday into the weekend.  Small swell today, 3-4 at 9-13 seconds - couple of swells in the water, wind swell and a very small northwest.  Similar size tomorrow, with perhaps a very small southwest joining in to remind us that season is around the corner - 2ft @15 seconds or so.  Northwest swell will increase Friday into the weekend - so might have more size by then - but the winds will remain.   Very small chance of rain over the weekend - but mainly Mendocino County north.  Nothing in the Bay Area.  Might see a pattern change as we move into March, bringing us some wetter weather for a period of time but then after that high pressure will probably take over and we will be into the northwest wind, dry season.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 2-3

Very cold temps this morning region wide in wake of yesterday's front passage.  High pressure builds in for the week leaving us cold, dry and windy.   Swell is raw and large this AM, 14ft @13 seconds from a very steep 320 deg.   Look for strong north winds all week long.  Cold water temps a result.  Swell will stay above 8 ft through Wednesday night and then gradually fade through the back half of the week.  Plenty to ride, just need some wind protection.  See you in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 1-20

Break between large swells today - deepwater is running 8ft at 13 sec from 300.   Rain and wind will return tonight into Tuesday - spreading north to south with fairly strong south winds.  Next swell will be in at 11-13ft at 18 seconds overnight and peak Tuesday into Wednesday overnight.   Brief fade on Thursday and then things ramp back up Friday with more swell and a potentially very large swell for the weekend.  South to southeast to southwest winds through the week depending on your location.  Weather will remain unsettled through next weekend with better chances for rain north off Sonoma County.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 1-11

Large, raw northwest swell will sweep down the coast late today - will peak overnight at 18-20ft at 18 seconds - very steep angle.   Northwest winds are gonna howl for pretty much the next week, along with bouts of west winds and perhaps some south as various storm systems come ashore.  The trajectory on all these storms (and swell) is out of the Eastern Gulf of Alaska/BC as that's how the storm track/jet stream is set up with lingering high pressure to our east and south offshore.   Storms will get progressively wetter through mid week.   Swell should stay above 10 ft the next 5-7 days. Plenty to ride, hide from the winds, wear a lot of rubber as it's going to get much colder through the period.  Cya in the water.