The Summer That Wasn't

Cool, foggy conditions look the norm for the next 7-10 days. August could potentially be the 5th month in a row with below average temps for the entire region. Blocking high pressure - one to our north - and another out in the West Pacific is keeping the overall long wave pattern overhead stagnant. This is why we have fog each day with not much change. Low pressure stays parked to our southwest. This pattern is also keeping the northern branch of the jetstream fragmented. Until the jet consolidates with some decent wind energy we won't see much of a shift - in our weather - or early Fall storm development. Keeping an eye on it however. For this week - same old story - background southern hemi swells and nw windswell. Fog every morning (and lasting all day at many coast locations). Winds may be lightest in the mornings - but that's not saying much. Onshore winds the rule.

Weekend Forecast

The good news about this weekend is August is upon us. One more month to go. Hopefully we'll see some change mid to late month in the jetstream pattern. As for the now - winds are blowing strong N to NW at the offshore buoys, but lighter winds still prevail nearshore with the persistent fog deck. Small south/southwest swells to continue through the weekend (probably waist to maybe chest high) and the windswell will creep up given the pressure gradient to our north interacting with surface low pressure to our south and inland. Best call is to surf early when winds are the lightest. No big changes really in the week ahead pattern wise. Just watching, waiting, hoping for more signals of change. cya in the water.

Week ahead

Small windswell and small background southern hemi swell all week - nothing to get that excited about. Only good thing is that winds will continue to be light each morning. You poor bastards that live near the ocean - you'll probably not see the sun again until September.....cya in the water.

Oh so subtle signs of change....

Caught a glimpse of some local maples with just a hint of early color on their leaves tonight on the way home. Brought a smile to my face. In the North Bay valley where i live, Fall normally comes early and winter tends to linger a bit longer. Tonight it's cold, foggy and windy - and it's been that way along the coast all day. The sw/w winds making a mess of our nice South swell pulsing in. Swell is still 3.4 at 17 from 190 - but winds are dead on any south facing break. Look for high pressure to remain parked out in the East Pac while the normal summer thermal low persists over our interior. What will happen later this week is the low will retrograde some, while a bit of energy cut off from the main jet hovers around CA. Much lighter winds forecast for Friday/Saturday/Sunday - near the coast with variable to se flow. Look for the south swell to hang around most of the week - getting progressively smaller towards the weekend along with small NW windswell created by stronger north winds way up near the Oregon/California border. So hang in there my surfing friends. We're getting closer to August - and normally by mid to late August we start to see some stronger signs of seasonal change. Right now the northern jetstream is in hibernation with colder than normal waters now in many key areas of the Pacific Basin. La Nina is trying to assert her return this Fall. It will be interesting to see if that develops. Before last season, we had three years of La Nina - less rain, more cold, less big swells, but we did have some wonderful runs of winter surf with offshore winds for days at times. So while sometimes La Nina is a blessing for us surfers - it's not good for the State's water supply or snowpack. Time will tell. In the meantime - start to look around in August and notice the changes. As surfers, we're naturally more in tune with our surroundings and it's cool to be in touch with that which so many ignore or dont even realize exist. cya in the water.

South Swell Update

No sign of the new inbound south in our waters yet, however i am seeing a few strokes of energy in far So Cal - in the 3-4 ft at 20 second range. Look for the swell to slowly build overnight - and show in force later Tuesday through Thursday. Best estimates for us will be deepwater swell in the 3-5 ft range at 18-20 seconds. Winds are bad right now - blowing hard NW off shore (outer waters), but S/SW near shore - those NW winds could certainly knock some of the size down as the swell comes up the Coast. We'll have to see. Winds are forecast to get a bit lighter mid week in our outer waters and that will help. We have some big windswell in the water too - in the 8-9 ft range at 8-9 sec - making a mess of everything. The SW winds aren't helping either. Keep an eye on the winds and find your favorite south facing spots mid week. cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast - Good Size South starting Monday

Weekend looks like we'll have increasing nw winds/onshore winds (not great) and windswell coming up with it. Southern hemi stays in the background all weekend. The real deal starts probably late Monday when the 20 sec southern hemi starts to show. This swell is coming from around 195-200 degrees and we could see sets in the overhead range Monday/Tuesday - much bigger the further south you go. That swell will linger most of next week with periods dropping but decent size to stick around through at least Thursday. Keep an eye on the winds over the weekend - we might get lucky for the morning sessions - but i think the afternoons will be pretty blown out. cya in the water.

NW peaking/fun SW

7.5 at 12 from 305 and fun sw 2.4 at 17 from 200. Fun combo swell in the water tonight. Look for the nw to slowly fade thru the day on Wednesday - with the sw swell hanging around thru the week. Still tracking a good strong s/sw well for July 19-23.
Winds were pretty light today - especially in the am with stronger onshore breezes in the afternoon. Look for that trend to continue all week - light/variable in AM - stronger seabreeze in the afternoon. cya in the water.

Off season NW due, plus SW looks to line up for rest of July

Off season NW swell is due in late Monday night - thru Wednesday. This swell will be strongest Tuesday afternoon thru Wednesday morning. Energy from 285-300 degrees - probably going several feet overhead on the sets at stand out NW facing breaks like Ocean Beach. Beyond that - tracking a number of back to back SW swells for July 17 thru July 23. The last pulse in that series - (from the 20th to 23rd) has the potential to send in some decent size swell. I'll continue to track and update the status of these swells by middle of next week. Winds have been pretty light the last few mornings - with mainly light south to southeast flow. Look for that trend to continue thru next week with light winds from the S/SW/W in the mornings - followed by stronger onshores each afternoon. No huge NW wind blow forecast - and water temps have warmed a bit back into the 53-55 range. Looking long term into early Fall - we are falling back into a La Nina set up - El Nino is gone and cooler than normal water temps are being reported around the equator and other regions of the Pacific. This could have an impact on storm development as we start to move into Fall. We'll have to see what happens. cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Typical mid (almost) July weather - foggy at the coast, warmer inland. Not much swell this weekend - fading mix of SW and windswell. If we're lucky, perhaps light enough winds near shore to make a paddle out. Nothing epic on the charts - but we are moving closer to Fall with each day - so that's something to be happy for! cya in the water.

Caught this at Endless Bummer blog...

The Surf Magazines Don't Talk About Lapsed Catholics from Todd Stewart on Vimeo.

Thanks to the Endless Bummer guys in NY that posted this. Such a great piece.

South sticks around today, fades tomorrow

Back from Cabo last night - huge swell down there Sunday into Monday. 15-18 ft faces easily on the sets at it's peak. I saw some impressive buoy readings up here last night of 5ft at 17 from 180 - pretty respectable for a south swell in our part of the world. This am it's down to 3.5 at 17 - but look for that to fluctuate during the day. We also have a shot of mid period (11 sec) windswell mixing in - 7.9 ft from 330 - super steep nw angle - but will cross up at the beachbreaks that face both exposures. Enjoy it while it all lasts because the forecast for the remainder of this week stinks- with dropping windswell and fading south - combined with continued fog, onshore winds. July in Nor Cal. cya in the water.

Mix of SW and Tropical SSE on tap for Monday

Nice size southwest swell filling in today - deep water swell in the 2-4 ft range at 17 seconds. Swell from Hurricane Celia will mix in on Monday - with periods in the 12-14 sec range - probably won't notice it - but it will keep the south facing breaks consistent with head high waves at times. NW windswell and a very small pulse of north swell will also be in the water. Look for light variable winds/light onshore in the morning - turning to a more westerly/northwest angle in the afternoon. I'm out of here on Wednesday - headed to Mexico to chase some incoming swell - in fact look for a decent shot of southwest swell towards next Sunday/Monday. Watch the winds/fog again later this week - temps stay hot inland but will start to cool near the coast and then cool eventually inland by midweek. Holiday weekend looks pretty typical - night and morning low clouds/fog nearshore and seasonably warm temps inland. Have a good week and happy 4th of July.

Sunday looks to be the better wind day....

Models have backed off the predicted offshore wind event which was suppose to start tomorrow and last through Sunday. Now it looks like tomorrow will still be cool and foggy coast-side - with a modest warm up inland. Saturday will begin to see even warmer temps inland but don't look for a huge warm up near the coast. Winds could still be light onshore now Saturday morning. Sunday should be warmer everywhere - but only make it to the 70s at the beaches - and hoping the winds stay light and variable - or light offshore for Sunday morning. Still a mix of sw and nw swells in the water - with windswell - so i think best best will be the beaches that can work on the cross up of swells. should be something to ride - maybe just not uber clean. cya in the water.

Offshore flow this weekend

Models are hinting at very warm temps and offshore flow from Friday to Sunday - if that holds - should see some nice beach days for the weekend. Look for a mix of nw windswell and sw swells in the water for the weekend so we should have stuff to ride - especially at the nw facing breaks. Stay tuned and cya in the water.

Update on Surfboard fees to and from Mexico

Update on airlines fees in and out of Mexico:

United has changed the one way charge to $100.00 - down from $175 last year. This is for bags under 50Lbs.

Alaska is still $75 one way.

Get out of town!

First Day of Summer Tomorrow....

Celebrate my surfing brothers and sisters - tomorrow is the first day of summer. What does that mean you ask? Well, it means that after tomorrow we get another minute towards Fall - each and every day. Just hold on - June/July - get through the next month and a half and then usually by August we'll see a few signs of change. Speaking of change - this morning was a relief - hope you got wet - the hurricane force winds dropped out and left us with a pretty nice morning. Unfortunately, winds are back this afternoon. Look for winds most of next week - with cooler than normal temps. One tropical storm and one hurricane today in the East Pacific to watch - but right now it doesn't look like either will enter our swell window - but I will keep an eye on it. Otherwise - we'll have continued windswell and small background sw swells. Check the winds in the mornings - you might get lucky next week. cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

no surf for you.

Forgettabouit

13ft at 10 seconds from 320. Winds are blowing gale force over the outer waters. A 10 sec windswell from 320 will basically go by our part of the coast and wave at us. Too steep an angle with short period - nothing is gonna wrap in except at nw facing breaks - and with the howling nw winds - best for some kite surfing. Winds are going to basically keep up all week making a mess of things. Things look bad for the rest of the month actually - perhaps a run of SW swell starting around the 25th - but between now and then - windswell, small pulses of s/sw and cold, cold water. Ahh, June in Nor Cal - you have to love it. Sounds funny to say it - but cya in the water.

NW Swell Tues/Wed - NW Winds

Winds never really got offshore fully Saturday and certainly not today. Fog has returned and with it onshore winds. NW winds should blow all week. We have a late season NW swell due in here Tues/Wed - models forecast deep water swell heights in the 6-10 ft range - so this one should be good for some double overhead sets at nw facing breaks during it's peak on Wednesday. SW swell will be in the background all week - but mainly lost in the heavier nw swell and winds. It's June - one of the worst months of the year for surf around these parts - so get what you can when you can. cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Winds are turning north - and hopefully will be blowing northeast in the morning. Large windswell in the water at 10ft + at 10 sec from 325 - a bit of a sloppy mess. No south to speak of. Water temps crashed while I was away this week (WTF?) down to 49 again. That's awesome. Hopefully winds will be light Sat/Sun mornings near shore - and blowing sideshore/offshore. Look for windswell to start winding down - with deepwater heights over the weekend still producing head high to overhead surf at nw facing spots. If we get the winds as forecast and warm temps to the coast it might actually be nice Sat/Sun and the main Nor Cal beaches. cya in the water and c'mon boys beat those damn English tomorrow!

Off to NY - no reports next week

I'm off to NY next week - so i wont be updating the report. Use the forecast links to check wind, tide and swell. Pretty dreary looking today with dense fog - can't see anything. Look for NW winds to increase later next week - scheduled to blow really good by next Thursday.

Weekend Forecast

Fun mix of nw and sw swells in the water - with lighter winds near shore - especially in the mornings. Look for this trend on Friday and probably Saturday - before we seen an increase in nw winds towards Sunday. Look for nw energy to increase more late Friday - maxing on Saturday with deep water at 4-7 ft from 275-300. SW swell will continue through the weekend with deep water heights around 3 ft from 190-210. The cross up of swells should keep beach breaks pretty fun. It's going to warm up a lot this weekend - and it might really shut down any marine influence of fog, winds - we'll have to see how close the thermal low inland moves overhead - how much it does will have a big impact on our winds. So, might not be a bad couple days of surf coming up - by late Spring standards - go out and get some. cya in the water.

Ugly

1.9 at 10 from 300 and 0.9 at 14 from 170 - that about says all you need to know about surf conditions today. Plus we have onshore winds/fog - not a good day for surfing anywhere. Look for surf to slowly pick up from the nw as the week moves on - with shots of nw/wnw swell from 280-290 starting Tuesday and continuing through next weekend. We could see some chest to overhead waves late in the week. Look for a run of sw swell from 195-210 starting around Tuesday and continuing through Saturday. Look for waist to chest high sets at the best south facing breaks. Look for winds from the sw/w all week. Maybe lighter in the mornings near shore. Weather models are hinting at rain north of the Golden Gate late in the week as well. We'll see if that comes to pass. Surf early and keep an eye on the winds. cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Small mix of nw and sw swells will continue thru the holiday weekend. Winds might be light offshore Saturday morning but then look for more onshore flow by Sunday and very likely Monday as fog returns. The rain is over for now and weather looks nice for next few days. Models are actually hinting at more rain around June 7-10 we'll see if that holds. It would be most unusual. Probably look for waist to head high waves this weekend - just keep an eye on the winds. Early next week we'll see an increase in sizable nw swells and more energy from the south. More on that Monday. Cya in the water.

Updating south swell

Well depending on what part of the coast you're on today - dictates whether or not you score. By summer standards - super long period/large s swell is filling in - the offshore buoys don't lie - I saw some readings in the 8-9 ft at 20 sec and most recently Pt Reyes with a whopping 11ft at 20 sec - that is one significant southern hemi. The problem is the winds - howling all the way down the length of the CA Coast - and i think knocking the stuffing out of this swell as it wraps ashore. Much of the energy appears to be bypassing the coast too. Looking at Malibu and Santa Cruz cams - large sets for sure. I surfed a south facing break in Marin this am - and we had some head high/overhead sets early - but things slowed down as the tide dropped and wind came up. Look for this swell to stick around Monday, probably into Tuesday too - with size and period slowly winding down. My call would be to play hooky Monday AM and hit it early before work and the winds come up. We have a few more weather systems bringing us a chance of rain all next week - Tuesday thru Thursday. No gully washers, but perhaps more rain then we had last week. Winds will continue to be an issue with hard blows from the nw with sporadic south/southwest wind events as storms come ashore. It's really a shame we had all this nw wind because i think this south swell would have been one for the ages! Oh well - get what you can and be happy. Water is frigid - where as much rubber as you can muster. cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Actually a nice day, cept for the gale force nw winds offshore and cool temps. Dont get too comfy with all that sunshine. Swell tonight is 7-8 at 11 from 320 and 1.7 at 17 from 180. Big swell actually peaked overnight and during the morning - buoy readings off Oregon were most impressive for a short time for the time of year - 20-30ft. Look for steady shots of nw windswell thru Sunday - overhead at nw facing breaks, much smaller at south facing breaks as the shorter period won't wrap in as well. Steady nw winds look the rule for the next few days. We have the southern edge of a storm clipping the north bay tomorrow afternoon/evening - and then another potential shot of very light rain on Saturday. Cool temps, breezy, clouds, etc look likely for most of the weekend. As for our incoming southern hemi - look for long period forerunners probably late Saturday afternoon. On Sunday and Monday - models indicate we could at time see south sets overhead by a couple feet at the best south facing breaks. I'm still a bit concerned about all the nw wind knocking the piss out of this swell coming up the Coast - however it's a pretty powerful swell so hopefully much of the energy will make it through. Seems reasonable we'll see some solid head high sets for sure at south facing breaks. Water temps are frigid - feel even colder with the wind. Averaging 48-51 degrees right now. So i think we'll certainly have some waves to ride this coming weekend - especially on Sunday. cya in the water.

More storms, wind, rain, swell....

***UPDATE 9PM - Small NW filling in at almost 3 ft 14 at 300 - also small S at 2 ft 17 at 180. Nice little mix. Not sure where this NW came from as it wasn't on the charts at all - but given storm activity to our north, not completely surprising. Winds coming on strong out of the northwest - nothing good can come from that! HUGE swell hitting outer Oregon Buoys - saw some readings in the 30ft at 14 sec range - that's freaking huge for May. I think the incoming swell for Friday (see below) may be way under called size wise - given the readings up north. I'll keep an eye on it and you can probably expect me to upgrade the size for the weekend.

From earlier today> They're running the Quicksilver Big Wave Invitational right now in Chile - in what looks like pretty solid 12-15ft surf - that's our south swell for this coming weekend and into the following week. I think the swell will start to show up here on Sunday - with 3-4 ft 21 sec energy from 185-195. Period will drop to 16 seconds on Sunday and Monday with size staying about the same 3-4ft (deepwater). At the same time, a late season, fairly powerful (but close to us) low pressure system in the gulf is kicking up mid period windswell/swell from around 306 - 9-10ft at around 11, maybe 12 seconds. Look for the nw swell to actually start showing Thursday and continue thru Monday. Weather going to remain a big issue. We have light winds this morning - but winds are forecast to really blow out of the NW starting Thursday right on through the weekend. Very brisk, cool temperatures are forecast as well - in fact we have potentially some frost possible late in the weekend in the north bay valleys - as overnight lows will be quite chilly for May. The weather stays cool and very unsettled through middle of next week - as low pressure remains parked in the gulf rotating energy through the central/north coast giving us some rain later today and then again possible on and off through Sunday. It remains a challenge to work on your boardshort tan for those south of the border adventures you have planned this summer. Should be plenty of surf to ride starting about Friday - it's just going to require some good local knowledge on what breaks work best. cya in the water.

Decent NW on Friday, followed by strong SW swell

Winter continues....in May. Storm pushing ashore today with light rain expected on most of the north/central coast. Wind is out of the south and buoys are pretty small with the last remains of our current sw swell showing - 2-3ft at 14 sec or so. Look for cool, breezy weather through next weekend - with another chance of light rain on Wednesday and again by Sunday. We're almost a month from the summer equinox - but the north pacific jetstream is still very active. Next up for us - is a very late season shot of NW swell - due in Friday. Right now looking at 9-10ft at 13sec from 295 on Friday with 8-9 at 13sec on Saturday. We have a couple SW swells due in around the same time - the first will probably go unnoticed at 2-3ft from 204 - but the second pulse which starts to show on Sunday - could come in around 3-4 at 17 and hang around through Tuesday. Should see long period runners of this swell during the day on Saturday in the 21 sec band. Given the larger NW in the water - you'll probably only notice the SW pulses at south facing breaks. Winds dont look that great all week with WNW to NW forecast between 9kt and 20kt - probably stronger offshore. Best bet is to surf early as that's when you have the best chance of lighter winds given the time of year. Or hit the south facing spots - they should be protected from that wind direction. So get some work done and hopefully we can feast from Friday through next Tuesday. cya in the water.

Update on south swell for this weekend...

I'm underwhelmed based on buoy data to our south this morning. Granted, it's early - but i'd like to be seeing some bigger readings already. This might be one of those where the models were overly optimistic. The long periods are there - but showing 2-2.7 or so off So Cal. So it will be interesting to see how much we get starting tomorrow. Swell will fill in late tonight. We also have a very small mid period (10sec) NW swell filtering in - very small. Perhaps the cross up on the two will help. Winds aren't great - SW - as the fog as established itself at the coast and pushing inland. Look for that all weekend with cool temps at the immediate coast. Winds are lighter the further south you go (south of Ocean Beach) - so it might not all be a wash. Rain Monday - then back to status quo. Interestingly, NO heat wave in sight - and we're going to be to June very soon. While El Nino is gone - the atmosphere is still being influenced by how strong this event was.

Upcoming South Swells.....Large swell possible May 22-25

Tracking a south swell due in this weekend. Should see long period stuff late Friday - 2-3 at 19/184-190 - continuing thru the weekend with period at 19 sec on Saturday, dropping to 17 sec on Sunday. Based on models - at it's peak it will show 3ft of deepwater swell with the main period band 19-17 secs. Not a bad little south. Things get far more interesting the following weekend - May 22 thru May 25 - as a major storm now flaring up is forecast to kick up a very significant swell for that time period. Models right now are hinting at 5-6ft of deepwater swell with periods from 23 sec to 17 sec through the event. This would be a pretty significant swell for the whole CA coast if it comes in as forecast. We're still early days on it - the storm is just getting started - but models are getting pretty consistent run to run already with the size and period. I'll dial this one in early to mid next week. As for winds coming up this weekend - looking for light West winds Sat/Sun mornings - if we're lucky - light enough to not mess things up. With variable winds on Monday morning. We have some push of NW wind offshore through the rest of this week (but not that strong) - this will keep the swell decay to a minimum as this south comes up the coast. This is a good thing. Water temps are still cool - 48-50deg. Temps could moderate a bit towards the weekend if we get a few days of west/onshore wind. cya in the water.

Glimmer of hope.....

7-12 ft 10-11 second windswell from around 300 in the water today. Winds have come up strongly out of the NW as forecast. Could be something at the sheltered breaks over the next day or so as this windswell will continue and a new WNW mid period swell starts to fill in Wed/Thurs. For the weekend coming - still tracking this sw swell event - which looks to be around Saturday to Monday. Right now I'm thinking deepwater swell in the 2-3 ft range - with longer periods. Winds are basically forecast to blow NW at the buoys the rest of the week (perhaps a bit lighter nearshore in the mornings) and then turn a bit more westerly or even southwesterly for the weekend. Most of our coast hates sw winds - so we'll see just how strong they come up. If we're lucky, they might be light enough for morning sessions this weekend - and at least not terminate the sw swell coming up offshore. A bigger/stronger sw swell event looks possible towards the week of 5-24. More on timing/size for that - mid to late next week. So, don't give up all hope just yet - well, it might rain again next Monday - before then we have some nice sunny days ahead and quite possibly you just might find something to ride at your favorite spot. cya in the water.

Pinch me, i think we're in Florida....

I woke up this am - hopeful I might get wet. I checked a few cams in the area and had to shake my head a couple times - SO flat, in fact so flat I thought the cam had malfunctioned and I was looking at South Beach, FLA. It's small, it's windy and to top it off it's raining. In fact, we have more rain coming for Monday - as the models did a really crap job of handling these two very late season storms. Storm #2 will give us rising windswell for Tues/Wed/Thurs - the steep angle/short period variety we love so much - like 9-10 ft at 9 sec from 320 + - killer. Down under - some storm action that will kick us up some SW swell late next weekend into the following week. Hope we get a break in the winds so these swells can make it around Pt Conception and give us something to ride. Between now and then - not much except the windswell next week - so get what you can when you can. cya on the golf course.

Weekend Forecast: Sleep in.

More dribble for the weekend. Smallish sw swell peaking today at 2.5 at 17 sec - might still be some sets Saturday morning at south facing breaks - otherwise - not much else in the water forecast. Minimal windswell and no swell of merit from any source in the north pacific. The north pac has gone asleep for the spring/summer season. Two storms which showed promise for Sunday and early next week are falling apart - and i dont expect any swell to develop from either. Longer range looking better for a run of sw swells - mid month and beyond - but between now and then there wont be much to surf. And to make it worse - we'll have nw winds on the rise again next week. Watching the perfect little waves pouring into Trestles this am for the Nike 6.0 pro REALLY got me depressed. But i had perfect 1ft Bolinas (desperation surf) to myself yesterday afternoon - so take that you So Cal types! cya in the water.

It's bleak my friends......

Ugly: 6.3 at 9 sec/from 330 and 0.6 at 14sec/from 170. Forecasts called for a southwest swell to show up later this week - but i think the relentless north winds offshore are going to kill that one on arrival. Right now I'm not seeing anything on the charts until possibly around May 14-17 when a better pulse of SW swell is due. Could see an increase in nw swell/windswell by Monday/Tuesday - but nothing to get all excited about. We do have a couple storms once again forecast - one to drop in here late this weekend and possibly give us showers. Then on Tuesday, another storm slides through - although models are starting to push this one off to the north and east. Our only hope is to surf early - and maybe catch a break at the NW facing breaks before the wind machine gets going. Water temp is pretty cold - 48 degrees. I wish i could paint a better picture - but it's spring in Nor Cal. cya on the golf course.

Dirk Denny Memorial Fund

A very touching and inspired paddle out yesterday morning for Dirk Denny at Drakes. A couple hundred surfers of all ages, shapes, sizes out to pay their respects to Dirk and his family. It was a beautiful morning as everyone braved the strong winds and very cold waters. Rest in peace Dirk.

A Memorial fund has been set up:


Help support Dirk's wife and two daughters by donating to "The Dirk Denny Memorial Fund" at: https://sites.google.com/site/thedirkdennymemorialfund/

I'll update the forecast later.

...and then Spring descended on the north/central coast

8.8 at 8 seconds from 320 and 1.1 at 14 from 195 - that about says all you need to know - well that and water temp hovering around 49-50deg. It's Spring my surfing friends. NW gale force winds continue over the outer waters giving us no relief. Our only hope might be enough of a turn in the winds to side/offshore for Sunday morning - as high pressure builds in to our north and east. Otherwise, it would appear El Nino's influence on the north pacific storm track is fading as the normal high pressure ridge begins to build to our north/west - sending the jetstream into hibernation for the summer. Reflect fondly on those waves you got all winter - it will be a long while before you see that again....ha. Time to think of cold beers, chips and salsa, 80 plus degree water and trunks and a tan....cya in the water.

Forecast and paddle out for Dirk Denny

There will be a memorial paddle out for surfer Dirk Denny at Drakes Beach this coming Sunday at 8am. Dirk tragically passed away while surfing Drakes this month. Come out and support.

As for our surf - yet another strong late season storm is making a mess of things at the moment with wind, rain and sloppy conditions. We have WNW swell in the water with size increasing today for Thursday. Swell periods are generally in the 11-13 sec band - look for size to increase into the double overhead range at nw facing breaks on Thursday. Swell will fade on Friday. We have a mix of SW groundswells moving in - from 200-220 - today and a stronger pulse to come in for Friday. Look for the biggest surf from this event on Friday - easing thru weekend. This swell will probably be in the waist to chest high range - with perhaps head high sets. Winds don't look great for the next five days with a blow from the nw almost each day. Perhaps a bit lighter towards the weekend. South facing breaks will be best for that wind direction. Might see light and variable winds for Sunday morning as out weather looks to improve (and warm up) through the weekend. Models are hinting at yet more rain - early next week. We'll see if that develops. cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

New long period NW swell showing tonight - 7-10 ft 17 sec from 300. This one came from a pretty good distance, so look for some lulls between sets. Winds have been blowing pretty strong from the west-northwest all day - with some fog along the coast making it's way inland tonight. High pressure is forecast to continue to build, slowly moving more to our northeast by Sunday hopefully giving us a bit of an offshore flow Sunday morning. Could see calm to variable winds early Saturday - and we have big high tides in the mornings too. Look for a bigger shot of nw swell to move in on Sunday - with sets to double overhead at the nw facing breaks. Sunday looks to be our last nice day for a while again - as our weather turns back to winter starting Monday night with rain, wind in the forecast through Tuesday. In fact if models hold up - we could see rain on and off most of next week - and it's the end of April. All thanks to El Nino. Tracking some decent south swell action for mid to late next week as well. More on that Monday. cya in the water.

Water Temp 50 and falling.....

Even the seabirds are cold......NW winds howling over outer waters, water temps a' tumblin down down. Probably upper 40s by tomorrow. Just when i got out of my hood and boots too. Shit! cya in the water.

Gale tonight, lighter winds expected

Gale force blow tonight offshore - nw winds in the 25 to 40kt range - probably higher gusts as the low pressure system tracks to our SE. Buoys to our north are showing a new pulse of NW swell - 14 ft at 15 sec - look for large surf and blown out conditions on Wednesday and probably Thursday - we might see some lighter morning winds Friday/Saturday - with a mix of NW and SW swells continuing thru the week. South facing protected spots are probably your best bet if you want to surf over the next couple days. Next chance of rain may hit next Mon/Tues. Small chance right now. More for the weekend forecast on Friday. cya in the water.

South swell nuggers!

Surfed a super super ultra secret Marin south swell spot today....ha.... on these trusty tools - l to r - 5.6 Mabile Keel, 6.1 CI Keel, 6.4 Hess Pacheco. Get some south swell goodness - nice pulse in the water.

Good Night Orion

You've probably guessed by now if you have been reading this blog long enough - I like the weather. I sort of kook out about it, but it's relaxing. Anyway - for us surfers at this latitude - the winter constellation Orion is cool. I love to watch it move across the winter sky from late fall into spring. For me - seeing it come up in the eastern sky every fall is always a sign waves won't be far behind. And i get sad each spring to watch it move lower and lower in the western sky, eventually disappearing until the following fall. There is something really cool about Orion - so keep your eye on it each season and the next night you're outside - look up and towards the western sky - you'll see it. Now, for the surf report - small WNW filling in tonight - deepwater swell at 4-5 ft at 14-15 seconds from 300 - and a nice south, 2.9 ft at 17 from 175. Winds have been light onshore most of the day - as we're stuck under a cyclonic flow in the eastern pacific. Look for light winds Thurs and probably light south winds on Friday with light morning winds looking possible for the weekend. Fun size WNW/NW swells along with different S/SW swells look to continue through Sunday. Nothing huge - just some fun size surf. Next rain chances (yep, more rain) comes in next week - models are still up in the air about how much rain we can expect - but looks like we'll get something Monday through next Wednesday. Added pic of one more essential board for spring - the Simmons inspired Jeff McCallum Keel fin. cya in the water

Week Ahead - Forecast

Large, crazy spring storm exiting our region - should be a distant memory by late tonight. Winds have yet to come around - but overnight they will shift to the wnw - and then become light and variable for Tuesday morning. Two swells in the water right now - 8ft at 11 sec from 280 and 5.4 at 10 from 220 - both swells a product of our recent storm. Look for both swells to wind down late tomorrow afternoon. Next NW swell comes along on Wednesday into Thursday - look for the biggest waves during this swell to go several feet overhead. Look for south to southwest background swells to continue all week - nothing huge, just fun size stuff for the breaks that pick up southern energy the best. Look for winds to stay light to variable for the next few mornings - then we could see a shift back to stronger south winds late this week as another storm system is possible starting Friday. Models continue to hint at another storm on Sunday - but it's still a ways out. cya in the water.

Spring Quiver!

L to R - 6.6 FCD KMRP Model, Round pin. 6.4 Rusty Hustler. 6.1 Channel Island Even Keel. Let the good times roll.

Weekend Forecast

ah, looks like Spring today - winds are howling out of the NW - 25kts gusting past 35kts. Ouch! That should tumble water temps by Saturday for sure. So things are blown out to say the least, cept for south facing breaks. Short period, large windswell on order and that won't wrap in very well to protected breaks. The bummer with these winds is they will knock the piss out of the south swell coming up for the weekend as it rounds Point Conception - the typical result around these parts for Spring/Summer. We have Gale warnings up along the north coast for the outer waters. Now winds are suppose to back way off near shore on Friday morning - so you might find something to ride. Saturday - look for SOUTHERLY winds to ramp up as another storm system takes aim on us. This should be a rain maker for Sunday into Monday - but only bring winds with it on Saturday and increasing clouds. Look for a mix of NW swell in the 8-9 ft range and south swell 2-3 ft range (all deep water) from Friday through Sunday (and then building swell on Sunday). I imagine we'll have some residual wind lump on the water for Friday from the big blow today. So, tune your wave and wind hunting brain on for the next couple days - local knowledge is gonna be key to finding anything rideable. cya in the water.

NW swell continues/S swell midweek

Plenty of size still around tonight - buoys at 13 ft 14 sec/300. Look for plenty of swell sticking around through Wednesday - especially at the nw facing breaks. Head high/dble overhead plus for sure. Plenty of nw swells lining up through the end of this week and into the following. Look for background sw swell Tues through Fri from 200-215 - probably good for inconsistent 1-3 ft surf. Look for a bit bigger south (175-190) Friday into Saturday. Could see some head high sets from this over that time. Winds: look for light to offshore winds over the next few mornings (possible through Thursday) with moderate nw blows in the afternoons. There is the potential for stronger nw winds towards the weekend - more on that mid week or so. So overall, plenty of surf on tap through the next 7-10 days. Know your winds and what spots deliver and you'll score. cya in the water. (Thanks to Matt for the pic!)

Swell UP

New Swell jumping up quicker than expected - already 16 ft at 14 seconds from 310 (very N angle). Bigger still to our north with buoys in the 19-20 ft range. Look for swell to hold through Sunday morning. NW winds right now - on the light side - but still nw. cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Calendar says April - but we're still in winter time mode in the North Pacific - thanks to El Nino. Another small storm overhead today into the evening - bringing south winds. Swell is 9ft plus at 12 seconds from 290 - on the way down through Saturday morning and then look for the swell to jump back up Saturday eve into Sunday as a fresh new swell comes ashore. Surf heights will easily jump back up in the double overhead range at nw facing breaks. We have a stronger storm on tap for Sunday - so look for s/se winds to make a mess of it. We might get lucky Saturday morning for a sesh - but winds are going to be "light" n/nw - and we have negative low tides in the mornings right now. Not a great combination. Next week we dry out some - but models are hinting at perhaps more rain the weekend of April 10/11. I'm also tracking a decent s/sw swell that could show weekend of April 10/11 as well. Could be a bit smaller than the sw swell we had around here last weekend. Overall, a pretty decent start to the southern hemi season down under - no doubt in part to El Nino - it's early Fall down under and they're seeing good storm development. cya in the water.

Big Swell All Week

Swell trains lining up and reading to slam the Coast for most of the week. Big right now at 10 ft 14 sec from 305 - but that's nothing compared to what is on the way for Wednesday - surf heights will be back up in the 17-21 ft range (deep water heights). Unfortunately - winds look pretty nasty with storms on and off for the next week. S/SW winds mostly - maybe a turn to the WNW for Wednesday morning and then the best wind morning looks like Friday - when we have variable winds. So, plenty of swell, wind, rain and big ugly - but you might find a few windows of surf if you know where to look.
Keep and eye on the winds. cya in the water.

Winter makes a return next week

WNW swell is slowly fading thru Friday - but still plenty of size in the morning at nw facing breaks - look for surf overhead to double overhead. Lighter winds Friday (and Saturday morning) with N to NE flow. Saturday morning should be fun size at NW facing breaks. Saturday will be the last nice day for a while as the North Pacific is going to unleash a little can of winter time whoop ass on us - starting Sunday night and potentially continuing through next Thursday. Low pressure is going to park itself in the Gulf of Alaska and rotate system after system into our region. We might see a sub tropical tap - if the models stay on the current track. Things could still change - have to see how the forecast models react over the next 2-3 days. For sure we will have swell next week - but I suspect a lot of south wind with it. I'll try to fine tune things on Sunday night. Get out there Friday and for sure Saturday morning. Those look to be the cleanest mornings for the next 7 days. cya in the water.

Not a bad first weekend of Spring

Hope you got out there this weekend - conditions were pretty clean with light winds and a good mix of SW and N swells - bigger today - as the north swell was the dominant feature in the water. We have a storm front passing to our north tonight - so look for nw winds Monday - but by Monday night winds will veer to the N/NE - with possible offshore flow for Tuesday morning. We'll have our current N swell fading thru mid week - but reinforcing shots of NW swell filling in Mon/Tues - and then potentially a much bigger swell from 285-300 later in the week. We also have a good size SW swell (200-220) that will start to show Tuesday/peak mid week. Wed/Thurs mornings look good for AM sessions with light/variable winds possible. Otherwise, we'll have NW winds on and off - strongest in the afternoons. We do have a chance of very light rain Wed and then again Fri - but these storms are forecast to be very weak. Long range models hint we might return to a wet pattern again starting next Sunday and into the following week.
So - plenty of waves on tap this coming week - keep an eye on the winds - and you'll probably get some good windows to jump on it and your favorite break. cya in the water.

First S/SW swells, continued NW swell

First decent S swell of the season due in for next week - before then, we have a small SW swell (190-200) filling in today - peak on Friday, but linger into Sunday. NW swell in the water and looks to stick around through early next week(various episodes of different size swells). Combination of the NW and SW swells should make for pretty fun conditions at the beach breaks through the weekend. Look for light winds to continue through the morning hours over the next few days. The bigger pulse of SW swell looks to show around Tuesday the 23rd lasting through the week. Still a bit early to call size - but we could be looking at some good deepwater south sets in the 5ft range. Storm corridor East of New Zealand is getting pretty active - which is typical for March/April - perhaps a bit more energized this year with the lingering effects of El Nino. Good signs - hopefully we'll have a good spring of SW swells. cya in the water.

Large Swell Tuesday to Thursday

New WNW swell starting to show tonight - will be quite solid during the day tomorrow. Look for deep water running 10-15 ft and bigger at times - energy from 270-300 degrees. Look for light winds tomorrow AM (NW flow isn't really developing as forecast this week). Wednesday, swell will still be quite solid - dropping a bit into the 8-12ft range - still light winds early. Swell drops out further on Thursday, but for north facing breaks still in the 6-10 ft range. We could see pretty warm temps both Thurs/Fri and possible light to offshore winds. So all n all - not a bad week weather or surf wise. If you like the big stuff - head to the north facing breaks in the mornings. Hint at a return to wet weather seven days out - but that's a long ways off right now.
cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Storm passing thru the region tonight - will be out of here by morning. Winds have switched to the nw behind the front and we have a north swell running at 10-14 ft 14/15 seconds from 310-320 - pretty north. Look for breezy nw winds and sunny skies on Saturday - with dropping north swell. Still some size in the morning then dropping during the day. Sunday looks sunny, with a warming trend - but still light nw winds in the morning. Still size at nw facing breaks on Sunday - but south facing will be pretty small. Looking for light morning winds Monday and Tuesday - next solid wnw swell comes in on Tuesday (more West again in this swell) - pushing things back in the 10-15 ft range for the nw facing breaks. High pressure gaining spring time control in the pacific - although we have a chance of rain again late next week. Between now and then, however - really nice weather with inland temps warming up into the 70s by Monday. Enjoy the sun. Cya in the water.

Yes indeed it's Spring

Well in case you missed it yesterday - 40 kt nw winds - Spring is arriving early. Feel the joy. Hope you enjoyed your Fall/Winter - i know i did. Some pretty epic days - far too many to remember. We enter our darkest months now - cold water, nw winds for weeks on end, longboarding goober kooks - and a few windows of good days in between. If you're a sailboarder or kite boarder - you're probably all giddy. For the rest of us - it's about finding shelter from the big nw blows - pray for some continued action from the North Pacific and some early season south swells. Pray for a big ole high pressure dome to park right over Ocean Beach for the entire month of April - shutting down the fog/wind machine to the west (ha, like that will happen). But on the flip side - think how productive you'll be again - your wife/girlfriend/boyfriend/husband might welcome you back into their life. Your kids and/or pets will remember you - so there are some good things about Spring I guess............yeah, right.

Pattern change in the works....

Just looked at the long term weather models and things are transitioning to perhaps a Spring like pattern starting next week. The jetstream/stormtrack is shifting north which means the next series of swells will have a much more northerly angle (300 degree plus events) - shadowing many Bay Area breaks - and creating much smaller surf at south facing breaks. It's too early to grab your windsurfing shit just yet - but things have changed quite quickly (just since my last report earlier this week) as the models have become bearish in their thinking El Nino is going to keep cranking. Forecast storm for tomorrow is losing steam and now it looks like the weekend could be dry (which is good) but we might also have nw winds blowing (bad). Next week - this trend continues. A hint the jetstream will get it's act together in 7-10 days and give us more westerly swell events - but all i can say is it's March - and it's always a month full of wild fluctuations. I still think that the effects of El Nino will influence our weather (and thus waves) well into Spring - but we could be looking at the first signs of things slowing down. We still have a good looking swell coming in for Saturday - so make the best of that. cya in the water.

Santa Barbara Weekend Past

some images from our recent excursion into Santa Barbara this past weekend. Wind, rain, wild weather and some amazing waves on Sunday. All around crazy crew raising mayhem with the SB locals. Thanks to Sean Shafer for the film - coming soon to a theatre near you! ha.

March comes in like lion

Around these parts March is usually viewed as the end of the winter surfing season as we transition into spring - with NW winds, cold water and smaller surf. However, this year with El Nino still in control - look for waves to continue probably well into April. Big swell is peaking today and stays in the 10-15 ft range for Wednesday - however winds are suspect with two storms coming thru our region creating onshore winds. Thursday look for lighter winds and surf still in the 8-10 ft range. Dropping out more on Friday (but still overhead at nw facing breaks). Another new wnw swell shows late Friday and holds thru Saturday - back up to 8-12 ft. Look for lighter winds on Saturday. Looking long term this pattern of storms, surf, winds going back and forth between south, west, nw looks to continue thru middle of next week. So plenty of swell to ride - just keep an eye on the winds and weather.

Huge West for the Weekend

Macking storm about to come onshore with ferocious south winds, heavy rain - the whole deal. Saturday should be good and trashed - as a huge West swell builds in. Sunday and Monday - winds look much cleaner. Look for swell in the 14-19ft range Sat/Sun with periods in the 12-16 sec band - from 260-270. Sunday morning might be nice at some of the protected breaks that like a light nw flow. I'm off to Rincon tonight to surf with 1000 of my closest friends in Santa Barbara and Slater. cya in the water.

Swell filling in, sticks around thru Weekend

Large West swell filling in today - in the 8-10 ft range at 15-17 seconds from about 285. This swell event will peak today, be on the downslope tomorrow (but still big at nw facing breaks). Look for another shot of West swell (270-300) to hit Thursday and stick around through Saturday. This will be back in the doubleoverhead range for Thursday and probably Friday, smaller Sat. Wind wise - light winds right now (in fact have turned to the NW at buoys) - and look for light winds Thursday morning before the south winds ramp up in advance of a large storm due to move ashore Friday into Saturday morning. Look for NW winds Saturday afternoon after front passage and probably light NW flow on Sunday morning. Sunday looks dry. Looks like we have more weather headed in next week as we move into March, traditionally the end of the Winter surfing season in Nor Cal. However, this year with El Nino still in force - look for waves to continue as the storm corridor stays open probably well into April. This should also fuel the southern hemi action in April. I've tracked about 26 storm/swell events this Fall/Winter - which is about on par for a mild El Nino year. I think by now we all realize how good any size El Nino is for surf around these shores. Wouldn't it be nice if it keeps our wonderful spring time nw winds in check this year? cya in the water and thanks to Sean for the nice OB picture.

Storm Door Opens

Look for wet weather to return on and off through most of next week. Forecast models hint at wetter storms as we get towards next Wed/Thurs. So we will have periods of on and off again west,south wind/se winds and probably some nw winds behind passing fronts. Swell wise - things will pick up tomorrow - with surf well overhead (8-12ft) - but probably sloppy with the increasing winds out of the west. Next possible decent wind window looks like Tuesday morning with some ene winds forecast. Look for surf to stay up through the coming period - solid at nw facing breaks - talking 8-10 ft range. Keep an eye on this blog - check the marine, wind and buoy forecast links and you might find some windows of opportunity to snag a few waves now and then. ***FORECAST NOTE: SF BUOY IS UP AND RUNNING AGAIN. Thanks NOAA. Papa and CA buoys are still offline. cya in the water.

Nice weather next few days.....

High pressure is protecting us from the storm track (for now). Look for light winds in the mornings, fog through at least Thursday. Then by Friday the storm door opens and looks to stay open through the middle part of the following week. Swell wise - our current run of big WNW swells will wind down towards the end of the week - with mortal size waves even by Thur/Fri at the nw facing beaches. Look for the surf to start increasing in size again over the weekend and into next week as swell trains land ashore in advance of all the storm activity due to pop up in the Pacific. cya in the water.

Big Surf for Weekend

By now you know Mavs is running tomorrow. Good for them - probably the last shot they'll have at a decent swell with light winds for a while. For the rest of us - it's getting big today - dble overhead already at nw facing breaks and will stay big thru Saturday. Light winds are forecast in the morning - probably with some residual south chop on the surface from this passing storm. Next week - all week - looks dry right now - for a change. So i'll update on the winds for next week on Sunday. We will probably have something to ride everyday next week as well. Get on it tomorrow at a break protected from the full impact of this incoming swell train and you'll have fun.
cya in the water.

Another Unsettled Week

More rain, on and off thru the week. Looks like a break on Wednesday - and then possibly next weekend another break. In between, rain and wind switching between S and NW - no offshore winds forecast this week. Swell wise - surf looks to stay in the overhead range at nw facing breaks most of the week - larger swell event due for Friday - more in the 8-12ft range. Like it's been for several weeks now - a lot of weather, swell, and perhaps some breaks in the weather with good surf windows. Stay on top of the forecast links on the blog. El Nino in full control of all the action in the North Pacific for some time to come. cya in the water.

Unsettled Week Ahead....

Rain returns late this week and could get heavy at times from Thursday thru next weekend. Swell-wise - we have a new W/NW that builds in Tues/Wed - with sets going back in the double overhead range at standout nw facing breaks. Winds look light SE next cple days in the mornings. As we get into the second half of the week, look for increasing south winds right through the weekend. Next shot of larger swell will also come in Friday-Sunday. So, keep an eye on the winds, might be another one of those weeks where you'll get surf window here and there. I'm off to Mexico Thursday to Monday and won't be updating the blog. cya in the water.

Bonzer Love.....

So first impression of my new bonzer - WOW. Surfed it this am in pretty epic beach break conditions. Never in my life surfed a bonzer, so didn't really know what to expect. I can say this - fans of the bonzer talk about a "5th gear/dimension" - the speed, long turns - it's very much true. The board is a missle - loves long rail turns and actively engages the pocket at the tap of your toe or heel. I can't wait to get this board in some bigger surf. You can tell the board will come alive even more with some serious juice underneath. It's not a vertical surfing machine, in the way a thruster or quad goes north to south on a wave you know - but if you really like taking your turns out and projecting way down the line - it's certainly something for your quiver. Thanks to Graham at Shelter Surf Shop in Long Beach and the Campbell Bros in Ventura. As for our surf - should have another clean morning or two with light winds. Surf will start to come up Friday - and get pretty solid by sundown (back in the 8-12ft range). Look for size to stick around Saturday. We have a small storm blowing thru Friday/Friday night. Lingers into Saturday and then high pressure regains control. Probably another small storm next Tuesday or so - and then we could also be looking for more of a shift back to a wetter pattern late next week. That's it - cya in the water.

Rain continues, new west starts the week...

Rain spreading north to south tonight. Storm sticks around thru Tuesday. Look for double to triple overhead waves at NW facing spots Monday - swell direction 280-290 as new West swell fills in. Still plenty big Tuesday and then we'll see a fade Wednesday to several feet overhead - smaller still Thursday. Wind wise - I think Wed/Thurs mornings this week look like the best conditions. (could see East wind Tuesday). Look for waves to pick up again Friday. Overall not quite as hard core stormy this week - but not ideal. Certainly a few windows to get wet. Keep an eye on the winds.
cya in the water.

Get on it Saturday

Saturday still looking like the break in the action with east winds forecast and large swell still in the water - double to triple overhead at the NW facing spots. We might get lucky and have some east wind Sunday morning too - based on the models - but we'll see. Very ominous looking slug of moisture out in the Pacific - just crossing the dateline - which will be potentially a very heavy rain maker for Sunday thru Tuesday. Rain today, showers Friday - winds crap both days. Saturday it's on for sure in the am if you can find a protected spot to surf. cya in the water.

Hitler's Surf Trip Ruined

When can we surf again Wasabi?

I know you're all wanting to know - it looks like Saturday is the first window. But don't expect small and clean nuggets - it's still going to be large with surf in the 16-19ft range - however, winds look to be out of the W/NW - so breaks protected from the winds and can tame the size might work. Until then, a few more brutal beat downs courtesy of the Pacific - the biggest to come tomorrow morning (Wednesday) with the highest winds, seas and rain totals of the week! More rain Thursday and then things begin to dry out on Friday. So hang in there for the next 48 hrs - and then ye shall be rewarded with a potential surf day on Saturday.

See you on the other side....

Pacific Sat picture tonight tells the story of the coming week - storms lined up all the way across the North Pacific. South winds will ramp up tomorrow as storm #1 barrels ashore, followed by four storms through next Friday. Large swells will start to hit Tuesday (deep water 20ft) - and remain in place over the course of the week. With plenty of wind, rain, short, mid, long period energy. Basically the Pacific is about to unleash a can of whoop ass on the entire West Coast. Tomorrow morning might be surfable - as south winds will be light in the am - but quickly pick up in the afternoon. Beyond tomorrow - I don't see any real clear windows for a surf sesh - however during these type of events it's always good to keep an eye out for the odd break/change in the winds. The rain is good, and we most certainly need a good soaking. cya in the water...some time in the future.....

"Big" Update

So swell peaked overnight - still good size this morning at -12-15 ft at 15-18 seconds - but not quite as big as models forecast. Winds have changed behind the front to light NW - and for Thurs/Fri mornings look for offshore flow with plenty of size still around. Rain returns Saturday with increasing south winds. Then the well advertised major pattern shift starts late Sunday - lasting thru most of the following week. Heavy rain, lots of south wind and no doubt very large storm surf to accompany the storms. Get the next couple days while you can because I dont think many of us will be doing too much surfing all next week. cya in the water.

BIG

Biggest swell of the winter to date is marching towards our shores tonight. Look for very large surf over the next 2-3 days. Peak of this event looks like Tuesday night into Wednesday with 18-20 ft deep water, long period swell - which will translate to 4-5 times overhead and bigger at NW spots that handle that size. Pretty much will be unruly everywhere with strong s to sw winds over the next 36-48 hrs. Look for lighter winds by Thursday into Friday before another storm comes ashore late in the week. Then, all bets are off as models are forecasting a very intense stormy period for the entire West Coast starting late next weekend and continuing well into the following week. In short, El Nino is really kicking into gear now and the long awaited global hemispheric pattern change with low pressure on the West Coast, high pressure in the East - is taking shape. We've been under a ridge of high pressure most of the Fall and early Winter, now the jetstream is going to take direct aim at us next week. Some models also hinting at the polar jet swinging in as well. You mix the warm, moist air of the southern jet and cold, cold air of the northern jet and you get one pretty epic stormy period. Lot's of rain, heavy snow in the Sierra - the whole sha-bang. We'll see if the models stay on course - it's still a week out. Interesting, the global wave models are also forecasting some most impressive wind fetches in the North Pacific next week - so we could see even larger surf. One other note - we've now lost the SE Papa Buoy - 600 miles off the Coast - which is a super important buoy for tracking incoming swells. So with that buoy offline, the Calif Buoy offline and the SF buoy offline - it's going to be very hard to pinpoint exact size of incoming swell trains. Best is to keep your eyes on the Bodega, Pt Reyes and SF Bar Buoys - for a somewhat accurate read of what is hitting close to our shores. That's all for now. Cya in the water.

Barneys

I don't think any of my blog readers are Barneys - I know you all get it. So perhaps you can print this note out and post it at your favorite beach. After watching a couple of my friends get dropped in on, almost decapitated by long board wielding, kooked out, surf once a month Barnsters today - I'd like to make this request to the Barney's: 1. Don't drop in on someone when they're flying down the line. They dont want the company, trust me. You might even consider LOOKING as well. 2. When all you Barneys are paddling out to your favorite spot - paddle OUTSIDE and towards the shoulder of incoming waves - don't sit like dumb asses in the impact zone talking about your recent stock trade or how cool your foam board is. Paddle with PURPOSE and get your fucking ass into the line up. Ok, I feel better - share the stoke bra.

Now as for the surf - BIGGEST FREAKING SWELL OF THE SEASON coming next week along with a nice fat rain event - so dont even think about it. Did I mention gale force south winds? Indeed. So all hell will break loose around here starting Monday into next Wednesday. Talking deepwater swell in the 20-25 ft range with very long periods - 17 sec plus. In short, super big - probably Monday night thru Wednesday. High tides, rains, south wind, big surf - can you say coastal flooding and erosion? That's the picture. So enjoy Sunday while you can - still plenty of swell in the water - in fact getting bigger than today - and probably East Winds again.

I'm watching you Barneys - so you best keep your distance. cya in the water.

Big West Swell Shows Late Thursday

Large W swell to start showing after sundown Thursday. Look for 8-12 ft deepwater - long period energy on Friday - from 265-290 - 15-17 sec interval. Good for triple overhead sets at standout NW facing beaches Friday. Size looks to stick around Sat/Sun too - perhaps down a couple clicks - but pretty solid at the northwest facing breaks. Winds dont look that bad - light & variable Thursday morning and Friday. With potentially even cleaner winds Sat/Sun mornings. Right now the next real rain chances look like next week - but the models have been calling for rainy days all season and we've had very few storms with any muscle. In fact - most spots in Nor Cal are running at half or way below average rainfall totals for the season. So it's time to start thinking about conserving water again - spread the word. While this El Nino has been great for the surf - it's not providing the needed snowpack and rain events we need to reverse three very dry seasons. Still have a lot of winter left - so hopefully the jetstream will get it's act together and bring us some good soaking rains. In the meantime - more surf on tap with good weather - cya in the water.

New Bonzer

New Bonzer on the way for the next week. Thanks Graham at Shelter - can't wait to ride this. Dims - 6.8 by 20 1/4 by 2 3/4. 5 fin Russ Short/Campbell Bros Diamond Tail.

Forecast for upcoming week

Small W/NW swell continues Tuesday (4-5 ft at 10 from 252)with offshore flow. Smaller surf still on Wednesday morning, before our next W/NW swell starts to show later in the day. This new swell will increase on Thursday - with sets several feet overhead at the better NW facing spots. Look for this swell to peak Friday - with boomer sets into the double overhead range. Swell for that event will be in the 12-13 ft range again, long period from 274 + on Friday. Look for big surf to continue into next weekend. More on that mid week. Weather wise this week we're locked under high pressure, with a small weather system due to brush us to the north on Wednesday, which may change our offshore flow to more onshore. Light onshore winds may continue on Thursday. Going into the weekend - we could see a stronger storm system come ashore with rain and more winds. So smaller for a couple days and then long term looks grande again. Definitely a robust season for surf along the North Coast. Cya in the water.

December Moods

Another amazing shot - thanks to Bryan Hawken.

Big Swell Hitting!

Another huge swell train is knocking on the door tonight - Pt Reyes showing 13ft at 15 sec from 290 - larger to the north with buoys showing 19ft at 15 sec. Look for light N to NE winds Saturday - and extra large surf at all NW facing beaches and points - dble to triple overhead and bigger. cya in the water.

New Years Forecast

South to variable winds this morning - looking a bit junky with the storm passing and big high tide. New W swell is filling in - around 6-7 ft at 15-17 seconds. Look for that swell to hold thru New Year's Eve - then we get a bigger W swell New Year's Day into Saturday going back into the double/triple overhead range at stand out WNW facing spots. Could still have some light southerly/variable winds Thurs/Fri - and then wind conditions could clean up more on Saturday and Sunday. So plenty of swell to continue, just check the winds each morning. We also have some big high tides (plus 7ft) next two mornings. Happy New Year and cya in the water.

How good does Ocean Beach get?

Thanks Bryan Hawken for the picture - from 12-9. Triple overhead day almost looks friendly.....

Large Swell Moves In Overnight

Large, long period swell will rapidly fill in overnight. Outer buoys are in the 17-19 ft range at 15-17 seconds. Look for double overhead ++ sets at top NW facing spots. Winds are iffy right now - as we have a storm moving through. S/SE direction suppose to change to N/NE tomorrow afternoon - we'll see. Swell will stick around on Monday - a bit smaller. More waves and potential on and off weather through next week. But plenty of surf. cya in the water.

Updated Christmas Forecast and Upcoming Weekend

Winds are veering North tonight and should be blowing NE/E (offshore) by Thursday and Friday mornings. Could even see lighter winds tomorrow morning (Wednesday) but things might still be a bit bumpy after all this NW wind. We have back to back WNW swells in the water, one winding down tomorrow and then a new swell incoming Thursday, peaking Friday. Should see peak sets with this swell to several feet overhead at NW facing breaks. Good direction on these pulses - 270-300 degrees. A new storm is taking shape tonight in the Central Pacific - quite impressive on satellite - and that could kick up a much larger swell for the upcoming weekend. More on that swell event Friday. If the models are correct - we could unfortunately see a pretty strong turn to wet weather this weekend as well which might negate the incoming swell train in terms of quality. The Pacific Basin is super active - El Nino is still gaining some strength and I don't believe we've seen the full impact yet of this building event in terms of swells and storms. It's overtaking 3 years of La Nina in the upper atmosphere and that requires a huge amount of energy to reverse that cycle. Something that has been going on for many months now. So we could very well be in for a wet and wild January and beyond. Time will tell. In the meantime, enjoy the good run of weather and surf upcoming. Cya in the water.

Weekend into Christmas forecast

Something to ride over the next 7 days - just variable swell heights with different swell trains inbound. Weather looks pretty nice this weekend with offshore flow through the period. Chance of very light rain maybe Monday/Tuesday - but it certainly doesn't look like gully washer. High pressure should re build over us for dry weather through Christmas. Swell wise, current WNW swell is winding down - but looking for a bump up again this weekend into Monday - another shot of west swell projected at 10-11 at 15 from 263 at it's peak on Sunday. More long period stuff due in Xmas eve and and Christmas Day - in the 7-10 ft range with longer periods at 17 sec and more northerly at 296. All n all - looks damn fine. The SF and Bodega buoys are both offline now and not scheduled to be redeployed anytime soon. The Calif buoy is also offline with no date to be re set. Makes forecasting incoming swells really hard. My advice is to stay on the SE Papa Buoy (600 miles offshore) and then check the SF Bar buoy which gives a spectral breakdown of incoming surf - but no wind or water temp data. Usually inbound swell at the SE Papa Buoy comes in 20-40% smaller once it hits the SF Bar buoy to account for the swell diminishing in size as it gets farther from it's source. At this rate we might have to go back to the old school way of forecasting - get in your car and drive and get what you get! Happy Holidays to everyone and I'll see you in the water.

Another storm winds up, bigger swell late week

Rain returns Tuesday starting in the North Bay and working south by Wednesday. Look for strong south winds near the coast and copious amounts of rain from Marin County to points north. This system is going to kick up a strong WNW swell - building to 8-12 ft on Wednesday - with Thursday being the peak day - 15-18 ft deep water - and forecasted light winds. Swell direction 279 to 281 deg. Friday winds may stay light and swell will drop with sets several feet overhead. Winds look light this am from the south - leftover westerly windswell from the storm that came through over the weekend. cya in the water.

**Some Forecasting notes - the SF Buoy appears to be offline since the weekend - it may have pulled off it's location and is adrift. Bummer for checking inbound swells. I'll try and see how long it's going to be out. Also - the Quickscat satellite - which provides wind speeds and direction information over the ocean to NOAA has come offline and probably won't be repaired this winter. This is a big blow to forecasters and will most certainly limit (somewhat) the ability to accurately predict surf heights. There are other tools forecasters use - but the quickscat is a very valuable satellite.

More big stuff coming, wild weather too

Thanks to Sean for the great pics. I'll post more of his stuff from our recent run of swells over the next few weeks. As for us, break in the groundswell on Sunday with N windswell the rule - as we have a modified arctic airmass and associated front decending on us from the Great White North. Cold, yeah, snow, maybe. Could see a dusting of snow on our local mountains by Monday morning for sure. Then late next week the flood gates open with wet storms after Wednesday, through the early part of the following week. The super storm which is going to send Hawaii 40-50 ft surf! on Tuesday is also sending groundswell in our direction to the tune of 15-18 ft (some 25ft) deepwater stuff on Wednesday. Rumor has it that the Eddie and the Mavs contest could both go off this week - something that is quite unusual. But it's an El Nino year and just as predicted the North Pac is unleashing a relentless parade of swells with no end in sight really. Winds look WNW right now starting tomorrow thru Tuesday. Then we might see a period of East winds starting Tuesday night through Wednesday. And with that big swell, could be pretty amazing. All and all next week looks Nor Cal wild with a bit of everything. Keep an eye on the buoys and winds and you might just find a few nuggets. Cya in the water.

Terry Fitzgerald 'The Sultan of Speed'

One of the most stylish and influential surfers of all time - great old footage of Fitz, Wayne Lynch and others in this clip. Makes you want to ride a single fin!

Clean conditions and size through the week...

Epic conditions look to continue right through the week with offshores and solid size - especially at the NW facing breaks. Minor fluctuations each day - but plenty of overhead stuff on tap - then look for size to really jump back up this coming Thursday into Friday with more of that 8-12 ft - occasionally 15ft all day Friday. Enjoy it - because models are hinting that this El Nino is finally going to flex it's muscle by late next weekend and give us an extended run of storms/rain through the following Wednesday. Until then, with storms all the way across the North Pacific - the surf will stay strong for the next 7-10 days and probably beyond. Cya in the water.

Thanks 2Mile Surf Shop

Don't spend your money in 2mile Surf Shop in Bolinas. I heard this weekend that the new owner of 2mile - who also owns a surf shop in Downtown Petaluma, is "outing" the last remaining secret spots on the West Marin Coast. Bolinas locals confirmed that they've heard the owner on the phone giving directions to people that most likely shouldn't be venturing out of Bolinas to begin with. It's bad enough that Bolinas has been taken over by every imaginable wave craft and surfer within a 100 mile radius, now you have some fucking kook telling everyone where the last remaining spots are so they can bring their 10 ft surf tech foamies into those line ups. Not sure how the rest of you feel about this - but I think we should allow people the opportunity to "discover" new spots on their own, through trial and error and some local knowledge. That's how I've found any new spot for myself on the CA coast over the past 30 years or so - from San Diego to points far north of San Francisco. And to all you surf shops giving group lessons as well as private lessons - some words of advice - teach your students some basic rules of the road before allowing them into the water - like look over your shoulder and dont drop in on people, if you're paddling out paddle inside a surfer who is up and riding on a wave. Do not try to beat him or her to the shoulder of the wave - you'll lose that race most everytime. You guys are ruining our spots with your lack of respect and common courtesy. You want to make money giving lessons - that's fine. You want to run a surf shop and make some cash - good for you. How about using your head and respect the people that live in the area, and the surfers that have been at these spots for a long time.

Wasabi Video Forecast 11-25

Video Forecast!

Offshores and swell most of this week

Morning - really nice conditions ahead for the next 3-4 days. Offshore winds are set up and should continue right through Thanksgiving Day. There is a weak front scheduled to blow through late Thursday, and then dry conditions should take over behind it for the weekend. Look for a longer period NW swell to begin showing today and peak Tuesday. From 300-320 - and a bit smaller than this past weekends swell. Looking ahead to potentially a much bigger swell for the 26th and 27th - with more West in it - 275-300. This could be in the double - triple overhead range for Friday into the weekend. So, should be pretty epic for the next couple days with the offshores and plenty of waves for the next seven days and beyond. Cya in the water and Happy Thanksgiving.

Nice Dawn Patrol This AM.....

Look for large swell to start impacting our coast tomorrow afternoon through Saturday. Deepwater swell heights around 15-17 ft. Good size storm comes in Friday - out of here by Saturday morning, with light north winds forecast for Saturday. Should be plenty of surf all weekend long - just check those winds before heading out.
cya in the water.

The Dead Seal Sessions Vol 1

To Be continued.......thanks for the pic Shafer! I think I know what comes next.

Big Swell and Weather headed our way

Rain chances begin tomorrow in the North Bay, with south winds starting up in the afternoon ahead of the front. Look for another strong weather system to come ashore Friday bringing rain to the entire region. We have a big low pressure system spinning in the Gulf of Alaska - as such look for a series of big WNW swells over the next 7-10 days. First of these is on the rise already to our north and look for overhead surf later Tuesday. Wednesday look for even bigger waves - double overhead plus at NW facing spots, holds Thursday and then an even bigger shot for Friday into Saturday. Right now Wednesday morning looks marginal wind wise - maybe good for am AM sesh - and Thursday, the winds potentially could be even lighter in the morning with good conditions. South winds and bad weather Friday/Saturday. Basically we're gonna have a lot of swell, but highly changeable conditions over the next week - so keep an eye on the winds and know which spots will work under different conditions. cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Light NW winds this morning will probably continue on Saturday morning. Look for a change to a NE/offshore wind possibly for Sunday AM. Look for ongoing WNW windswell in the 11-12 sec range - with head high to sets a few feet overhead at NW facing breaks Saturday. Look for more size on Sunday and then bigger still with a new NW swell inbound for Mon/Tues. I'm also tracking a big storm complex due middle of next week - potentially sending in a large long period WNW swell, but also a storm with it. More on that Monday. get some this weekend and cya in the water.

Surf Check

Like this shot of the bros checking the surf this past Saturday morning. Good times.

Yeah, it's bigger than it looks....

Big Monday, Ocean Beach. Drove by this morning after dropping some friends at the airport - it was big, perfect, offshore. I mean very large. For the 3 guys out at Judah, I salute you. Not sure what you had for breakfast to make you paddle out - but good on you brothers. North end of the beach almost looked manageable, some guys suiting up - maybe 1.5 to dble overhead. Not like the center of the beach which still had small office buildings rolling ashore. Look for things to stay large most of this week, thru next weekend and into the first part of next week. Winds don't look horrible until possibly Thursday when we get a NW blow after this big low pressure system in the Gulf of AK finally moves out. Also as reported by Surfline over the weekend - Eric Geiselman's shark encounter north of Santa Cruz. Hey Eric - pretty sure that was a big elephant seal that bumped your ass - otherwise you'd have a few staples and teeth marks in the board. Welcome to Nor Cal. cya in the water.

Boom, Big Saturday Video Forecast!

Monster Swell now for the weekend

From the NWS:

.MARINE...AS OF 5:15 AM WEDNESDAY...LARGE AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE FRI
INTO SATURDAY AND PROBABLY LASTING THROUGH MOST
OF SUNDAY. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO LOOK INTO A HIGH SURF ADVISORY/OR POSSIBLE
WARNING SINCE SWELL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH CLOSE TO 20 FEET WITH  SWELL PERIODS UP TO
17 SECONDS.

It's gonna be a big one. Winds look like they might shift to the N/NW and remain on the lighter side after frontal passage on Thursday/Friday. So protected spots might be the call. Anywhere is going to be big on this swell, especially with the long period. More to come.....

LARGE NW SWELL FOR THE WEEKEND

The biggest swell so far of the Fall headed our way starting this coming Friday. Models are forecasting a deep water swell train of 14-19 feet at 16-17 seconds from 302!! We have a change in our weather as well with a series of low pressure systems progd to swing into CA from Thursday thru the weekend. Before then, pretty epic long period energy from Lupit winding down thru tomorrow - well overhead today and clean offshores. Look for a repeat on Tuesday with offshore winds and dropping swell. I think the wind shift will really take shape starting around Thursday night - swinging more to a storm direction SSW as the storm fronts start to knock on our door. As for that upcoming weekend swell - Friday will start large - 10-11ft at 17, Saturday and Sunday - uber large at 18-19 ft at 17, "dropping" some Monday to 15-16 ft at 16. Still big next Tuesday. I will try to dial in the winds and re confirm swell size mid week. Until then, enjoy some clean offshore mornings over the next couple days. cya in the water.