Friday, December 18, 2009

Weekend into Christmas forecast

Something to ride over the next 7 days - just variable swell heights with different swell trains inbound. Weather looks pretty nice this weekend with offshore flow through the period. Chance of very light rain maybe Monday/Tuesday - but it certainly doesn't look like gully washer. High pressure should re build over us for dry weather through Christmas. Swell wise, current WNW swell is winding down - but looking for a bump up again this weekend into Monday - another shot of west swell projected at 10-11 at 15 from 263 at it's peak on Sunday. More long period stuff due in Xmas eve and and Christmas Day - in the 7-10 ft range with longer periods at 17 sec and more northerly at 296. All n all - looks damn fine. The SF and Bodega buoys are both offline now and not scheduled to be redeployed anytime soon. The Calif buoy is also offline with no date to be re set. Makes forecasting incoming swells really hard. My advice is to stay on the SE Papa Buoy (600 miles offshore) and then check the SF Bar buoy which gives a spectral breakdown of incoming surf - but no wind or water temp data. Usually inbound swell at the SE Papa Buoy comes in 20-40% smaller once it hits the SF Bar buoy to account for the swell diminishing in size as it gets farther from it's source. At this rate we might have to go back to the old school way of forecasting - get in your car and drive and get what you get! Happy Holidays to everyone and I'll see you in the water.

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