UPDATED FORECAST 12-26

Hope you had a good Christmas.  Storm door wide open and about to unleash on California for the next few days with XXL surf (already happening), strong, storm force winds and a lot of rain.  South winds through the week - very strong at times, no let up in those winds until Saturday at the earliest.  Main swell event on tap for Thursday when deep water swell heights will peak at 18-21ft at 18 seconds - Very large and dangerous surf a result.   A few spots on the Central and North Coast that will feature some rideable waves at times.  Otherwise, hunker down and enjoy the show.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 12-20, HERE COMES EL NINO

180 Hours out, next Thursday shows a strong jet stream across the entire Pacific Basin with two troughs just digging off the West Coast - this will be a high impact event for next week, mid week on - with high surf, winds and copious amounts of rain and high elevation mountain snow.  Before then, we will see a few more weaker systems stream overhead and a new swell inbound peaking later today into tomorrow at 8-10 ft at 15-16sec from 290.  A couple more nice days coming up, with some north to northwest winds, but swell.  I'd get what you can between now and Sunday/Monday - because after that it's going to be hunker down time.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-13

 Staying on the small side for the most part with a couple mid size swells inbound for Thursday and Friday.   First pulse tomorrow will only be 4-6 ft @16 from the northwest, peaking at 5-7 ft overnight.  We will then transition over to a couple small west and southwest swells due in from a couple storms currently spinning in the N Pac.   Unfortunately those swells will combine with pretty strong southeast winds (especially from Mendocino south through the Bay Area) Friday to Sunday as a cutoff low pressure system hovers offshore sending rounds of wind and potentially some decent rain for Mendo and the Bay Area Friday through the weekend and potentially into the following week.   It will be a tricky 5-7 days coming up between the weather, wind and a couple unusual swell directions from the south/southwest which could end up being of the shorter period variety.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-6/BIG WEDNESDAY

 XXL swell in the water 18-20ft at 17-19 seconds 290-295 deg.  Winds are unfortunately a mess - blowing hard from the south or southwest depending on location - rain is falling hard from BC to Bodega Bay and pushing south through the day.   Looks pretty messy the rest of the week with the lightest winds possibly on Saturday - but we are in a stormy run and winds will alternate between south and north/northwest as fronts come and go through the week.   Today's swell will slowly fade into the weekend, but stay pretty decent sized until Friday.   My last post i  lamented "what's up El Niño," and El Niño decided to answer.....Cya in the water.   

PS - adding a new link to the forecast side - windfinder.com - you can search anywhere and get very reliable readings for things like wind, weather, surf.   check it out.  

UPDATED FORECAST 11-30

 Moderate atmospheric river to impact far N Cal, Oregon, Washington through the weekend - rain line will likely not make it south of the Mendo/Sonoma border as annoying high pressure (what's up El Niño?) - hangs around the Great Basin and NE Pacific - keeping most of the rain to our north.   From a swell production stand point, the machine is running and active as storms are lined up across the Pacific Basin.   Small northwest swell around today - about 3-5 ft, along with some wind swell on the order of 5-7ft.   Northwest winds are blowing over the outer waters, less so near shore.  New northwest swell will build in overnight becoming 6-8ft@13 seconds for Friday, along with lighter winds, small chance of rain north of Bodega Bay.  Swell fades Saturday, as a larger northwest swell fills in over the top pushing to 8-10ft for Sunday, bit smaller Monday.   Winds look light southwest/south for the weekend.   General swell direction for all these hits about 295 to 305 degrees.   Bigger swells on the menu for the first part of December - more on that next week.  Cya in the water.  

11-22, NEW UPDATE FOR REST OF THE WEEK

 First in a series of swells hitting today - 7 -8 @14 from west/northwest (285 deg) - biggest north of Bodega.  Winds for the most part are light.   Weak storm is passing overhead this afternoon - might see a shower or two north of Sonoma - the bigger story will be the north wind that builds in behind this from for tomorrow and Friday with 20-30kts forecast and higher gusts.  That will kick up a large wind swell on the order of 10-12ft - while a smaller long period northwest swell builds in underneath at 3-4@19 seconds from around 295 deg.  Another long period swell fills in for the weekend 5-6@21 seconds as the winds drop out for Saturday/Sunday - which are shaping up to be the best days over the next five or so.   

UPDATED FORECAST - THANKSGIVING WEEK

 High pressure builds in for the next 7-10 days.  We will have periods of light winds, some offshore winds, north winds through the next week.   Small west swell builds in Tuesday, around 5ft@16 seconds, while a bigger swell will take aim at the Coast on Wednesday, biggest Thursday at 8-10ft, slow fade into Friday dropping to 6-8ft.   There are some very large storms out in the Pacific right now - but they will be shunted north all week by the high pressure ridge.   Overall, should be a nice week for CA with primarily fun size surf and decent conditions depending on where you go.   Feels like as we move into December the pattern could very well change back to something much more sinister weather wise - as El Niño is in full flight and the pattern over the Pacific Basin is quite active to say the least.   A strong dip in the jet along with large storm systems and it will be game on.    Cya in the water.   

STORMIN'......UPDATED FORECAST 11-14

No surf for you!  Well actually, spots that like strong south to southeast winds might be kinda fun the next few days - but winds will be strong at times as a cut off low pressure system about 500-700 miles off Pt Reyes sits and spins (cut off from the steering jet stream winds) and pumps rounds of rain, shorter period southerly wind swell into CA.   Pattern to persist all week, a few windows with no rain but overall might be a good week to get some shit done as overall pattern looks pretty dim for good surf.   Cya doing chores and running errands.......

UPDATED FORECAST 11-8, N PAC ABOUT TO GO BOOM

 Fairly average fall surf the rest of the week, getting bigger towards the weekend and then beyond the storm door may open very wide by the middle of next week.   Winds are northwest today and staying out of a general north to northwest direction for the remainder of the week.  Next good shot of waves Friday into Saturday 6-9 ft @14 sec - biggest north of SF.   Lighter winds Sunday, bigger swell due in at 10-11 ft. After that - all eyes towards a large storm system taking up residence in the Gulf - polar jet to perhaps mingle with lower latitude jet stream winds and bring in what will be the strongest storm of this early season with potential for heavy rain, winds and mountain snows.   Large surf most likely a given, clean conditions most likely not!   This rainy pattern looks to start around Monday in the north, continuing thru about next Thursday.  As always - the devil is in the details - read the NWS Eureka and NWS Monterey/SF links for the full details over the next few days as the models come into better agreement on timing for everything.   Until then, plenty of surf to ride, just keep an eye on the winds.   Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 11-4

 As predicted, end of the week bringing a pattern change as a number of storm systems are dropping across the N Pac.   A series of swells to result.   First one due in tonight at 7-9 ft @14 seconds, peaking Sunday at 8-9ft @13.  Direction 280.  Next swell due on the heels Monday, 8-10@14 seconds.  Similar swell direction.  That swell will linger into next Wednesday.  Winds are light south to southwest through Sunday night, switching to west, then northwest mid week.   Couple chances of rain through the next 7 days, but little rainfall expected south of SF/Santa Cruz - storm track/jet stream continues to hover to our north and until we see a strong dip in that jet, we won't get much precipitation.   That will likely start to occur late November and as we move into December.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-27, waiting on a pattern change.....

Staying small through the weekend, with some pulses of south/south west swell rolling in that might provide something to ride at the summer breaks.   Very small northwest wind swell at 3-4ft @11 seconds in the water.   South swell to build to 2 ft @18-19 seconds tonight.  It's cold, as a continental airmass has settled in over the region and will get a reinforcing shot of cold air Saturday into Sunday with locally strong off shore winds perhaps making it to the coast.   Water temps have dropped back to the low 50s, bit warmer Bay Area south.    So small, windy throughout the weekend.   Keeping an eye on mid to late next week for the jet stream to reorganize, westerly winds ramp up and bring rain, wind and swell to the West Coast starting potentially mid week, but might be more like next weekend.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-23

 Staying small this week as the N Pac Jetstream re-organizes - probably see a larger pattern change after Halloween.  Until then, background south swells continue and smaller northwest and north wind swells will be in the water along with stronger north to northwest winds.   Those winds should let up some later this week.  Small chances of rain on and off this week - mostly north of Sonoma County.   A good week to get some stuff done.  Cya in the water.  

12@24 seconds.....!

Northern Buoys are bombing already early this am as a powerful long period swell builds in.  We don't see swell periods in the 24 -25sec range often but that's been showing at the Cape Mendo and Pt Arena Buoys for a few hours now.  Given how large the early forerunners, think this swell will beat the forecast size wise over the next two days.   Light winds today and tomorrow, should be some pretty epic spots. Cya in the water.  

XXL SWELL INBOUND, UPDATED FORECAST 10-17

 Solid northwest swell around today - 8-9ft @14 seconds from around 290 - biggest north of Jenner.  All eyes to mid week when swell from Extra Tropical Storm Bolevan builds in.  Forerunners after dark on Wednesday - 5-6ft @22 seconds from 295deg - jumping up quite quickly on Thursday to 13-14ft@18 seconds.  Then a gradual fade into the weekend.   Weather looks to cooperate for the most part as we have high pressure overhead and forecasted north to offshore winds.  Not sure the models are doing a good job of picking up on the locally dense fog in spots which will affect vis and wind direction - so worth keeping an eye on.   Winds will drop next Saturday, along with swell size.   Pattern changes back to low pressure overhead and slight chance of rain next weekend with a better chance the following week.   Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 10-12

Large northwest swell winding down today, but still solid at 10ft@13 north of Bodega, smaller towards OB and Santa Cruz.   Swell will continue to fade into Friday before the next round of swell arrives, first a moderate period northwest swell for early in the weekend which will peak at 8-9ft@13 and then a longer period, bigger swell potentially from Typhoon Bolaven which turned extra tropical this week and is presently streaming under the Aleutians in the Gulf of Alaska.   Classic El Niño set up in the N Pac right now with a strong jet stream zipping along 40 latitude north with 150-170kt winds feeding various low pressure systems chugging across.  Perfect set up for swell production.   Chance of rain begins on Friday north of Sonoma County and that rain may make it down only as far as Marin.   Better chance of rain area wide by early next week.   Winds north today over the outer waters as high pressure briefly moves over the area and then should remain light south to southwest through next Monday.   Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 10-9

 Storm system about to come onshore early this morning with some mid period swell behind it for Tuesday into mid week.  Winds have turned to the south/southeast and will blow from that direction until trough passage later tonight.  Winds will turn strongly from the northwest for Tuesday/Wednesday.  Small south swell in the water right now at 2.6@14 seconds.  Northwest Gulf Swell will build in quickly on Tuesday - 6-8@15 seconds from 319 (steep angle, Bay Area will be heavily shadowed) - followed by another pulse of swell mid week with a better angle (305 deg), deepwater 9-11 ft @13-14 seconds.  Winds will remain from the north to northwest until Friday, turn southwest with more rain chances headed into next weekend.  The northern branch of the jet stream is quite active now and storms are going to ripple through the strong jet all week.   No atmospheric rivers mind you, not yet at least, but a strong sign that El Niño is starting to have an impact on storm and swell production in the Pacific Basin.  Could be a wild ride once we get into the heart of the winter.   Plenty to ride this week, just need to find some protection from the winds depending on the direction.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST END SEP/EARLY OCT

 Another early season storm exiting the region this morning with strong northwest winds blowing behind the front - which will increase today and tomorrow.  Large wind swell has already responded north of Pt Arena - 10-11 ft at 9 seconds and will increase to 15 ft @10 seconds Sunday.  Winds will remain pretty gusty through Wednesday, perhaps turning a bit north to northeast through the period as another system dives into the Great Basin and creates off shore flow.  Couple more storms developing out in the Pacific with a strong jet coming off Japan creating a good environment next week for swell production.   Fall is here - but for this week looks like just periods of larger wind swell.  Waiting on this next series of storms to perhaps produce something better.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 9-22

Still some left over northwest swell from this week's large-ish northwest event.   Buoys around 6@11 this morning with light south winds.  Swell will stay small throughout the weekend with background south swell until the next swell train moves in Monday into next week - with the potential for very large surf again by next Tuesday.   An early season storm, with a possible low end atmospheric river will begin to impact the far North Coast Sunday and spread south through Tuesday.   Heavy rain will impact areas north of Mendocino, but rain will happen all the way down to SF and maybe further south.   South winds will crank up Sunday and Monday.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 9-17, FIRST REAL NW SWELL THIS COMING WEEK

 Some south swell left overs today 2ft @15 from around 200.   This will be the last day of south swell and then focus turns to incoming northwest swell train for Tuesday-Thursday.   A decent size low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska has been creating a good fetch of winds.   Swell will build overnight Monday at 8ft @16 seconds, solid on Tuesday at 8-10 ft @16 seconds as well as Wednesday 9-11ft@14 seconds.  Size holding Thursday before fading out Friday into next weekend.   Winds won't be ideal for this swell - northwest winds forecast Monday night through Thursday, veering more northerly Wed/Thurs.   Nearshore winds might not be as strong or have more of an offshore component given they will be a result of an Inside Slider type system diving into the Great Basin.   It is close to meteorological Fall - and the time of year for wind events like this.   The Pacific Jetstream is active and energetic - and we also have some chances of rain mid week next, as well as the possibility of a stronger rain even for next weekend.  So here we go!  Cya in the water! 

UPDATED FORECAST 9-11

 Jova swell fading out today.  Didn't develop as forecast for spots north of Pt Conception - likely due to the angle of approach, shorter periods and the movement of Jova quickly to the northwest.   Attention now to the South Pacific again as a new long period swell will run in mid week and beyond.  Look for forerunners  to start in So Cal Tuesday 1-2ft @19 seconds from 200, Santa Cruz Tuesday night and spots SF north, overnight Tuesday.   Period will drop and size will be more noticeable Wednesday, Thursday and Friday for spots north of Santa Cruz.   Peak deep water swell heights for the Wed-Fri period should be 2-3 ft @15-17 sec from 200.  Good for chest high & larger sets at south facing spots.   Northwest winds forecast most of the week, especially SF north - gradual decline in winds by Friday.   South facing spots will be cleaner with the northwest wind.   Nothing serious on the charts for the North Pacific yet, still waiting for the season to really start up north.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATE ON JOVA SWELL, SW FOR NEXT WEEK

 Swell from Hurricane Jova entered the So Cal waters overnight and pushing up this morning.   It's starting to show as far north as Big Sur,  deepwater swell around 3ft@14 seconds from 170.   North of Santa Cruz, SF and beyond, it's still the remnants of our old southwest swell at 2-3ft @14 from 185.  Winds mostly light, fog in along most of the Coast.  Jova swell will build all day - peaking overnight Santa Cruz/SF and then pushing up far north for Sunday/Monday.   Swell might be a bit smaller than forecast since the hurricane was moving quite quickly (even though the winds were very strong) - you typically want to see a hurricane like Jova move very slowly to the northwest in the CA swell window to maximize surf heights.  Either way - still should be some fun tropical swell around the next few days.  Spots with a good view to the south might feature some larger sets at times, tropical swells can be very unpredictable.  Next up - starting mid week - another good run of southwest swell on tap.  More on that when we start the week.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 9-7, Hurricane Jova, More South Swell mid Sept.....

 Brief pause after a very strong south swell graced our shores from last Friday through last night.   Still some energy in the water at 2.5 to 2.7 ft @15/17 seconds from 175, but will fade through the day.   Watching the movement of Hurricane Jova now, moving west/northwest underneath and away from Baja.  Storm has moved into the So Cal window and should continue into our window for the next day.    We could start to see swell from Jova as earlier as Saturday.   Right now models are showing the potential for steep angle south 2-4 ft @16 sec late Saturday, pushing up to 4-6 ft@12-14 sec on Sunday.   This will likely be 170 deg or steeper.  Everything depends on the track right now.   Good bet most of the CA Coast will see action and spots with good exposure to the south will obviously pick up the most swell.   One to watch for sure.  Northwest winds will ramp up again over the outer waters for the next 4-5 days, hard to say right now how much mixes into the inner waters, given the fog and ongoing light southerly flow.   Beyond all this - the South Pacific is now very active and looking at the potential for some strong south swells Mid September and beyond while we wait for the North Pacific to really wake up.   El Niño is most certainly having an impact on the S Pac now and the Tropics, we will see what that means for our winter surf.   Cya in the water.  

SOLID

First pulse of strong south swell peaking at 3-4 ft @18-20 seconds - swell is over performing based on what was modeled a few days ago.  We also have our first legitimate northwest swell of the season - showing at the far northern buoys - 6-7 ft @17 seconds.  Winds are light - go surf.  Cya in the water.  

SEPTEMBER 1

Welcome to the 2023/2024 Fall/Winter Surf Season.   Made it through another summer.   Strong run of south swell just starting to hit most of the CA buoys this morning, although not so much yet above SF.   Long period fore runners 3-4 ft @18-20 seconds from 180-200.   North wind swell above Bodega Bay - 5-6ft @9 seconds.  The long period northwest swell that was on the models a few days ago didn't materialize for today.    Northwest winds over the outer waters should start to ease up today and remain south through Sunday - on the lighter side.  Winds look to pick up again Monday as low pressure exits the region and high pressure briefly builds back in.  Rain, showers in the forecast from Sonoma County north - heaviest far Nor Cal.   Enjoy the next week of south swell.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND

 Gale warnings up through Thursday AM as strong high pressure is creating north winds over the outer waters.   Have not really seen the buoys respond to the wind swell forecasts, possibly because the heaviest winds are over land.  On the horizon we have a long period west/north swell due in and long period southeast swell for the rest of the week.  The west swell should be in late Thursday night, Friday - deepwater possible at 2-4 ft @19 seconds - biggest north of Bodega.  The south will roll in first late Thursday Santa Cruz south, then Bay Area and further north Friday into the weekend and beyond, couple pulses of this swell coming.  Potentially looking at 3 ft @19 seconds, good south facing breaks should be head high plus on sets.   We could see the south swell action linger on to around the 7th of Sept.  Winds will dial back into the weekend and switch from the south, we also have a early season weather system coming in which will bring rain to far northern CA, with chance amounts down to around Sonoma County.   Water temps have plummeted back into the low 50s with all this wind over the past week.   Cya in the water.  

SLEEPER SOUTH.....

New southeast New Zealand swell filled in today, came in bigger than most models forecasted - 3-4@17 sec - deepwater from 184.   Swell should stick around through Monday.   Winds are forecast to veer northwest over the weekend - but with the fog bank sticking around, near shore winds potentially light in the am's and then picking up in the afternoons as fog pulls back.   More south swell on the charts for early September and waiting on the N Pacific to get going.   Cya in the water. 

HILARY SWELL FIZZLES.....

Quick update on Hilary swell - never really made it around Pt Conception - and what did is passing by the rest of CA short of a few dribbles for Santa Cruz.    Good size wind swell is tracking into Nor CA waters this am 8-11ft at 10 sec, steep angle - 320 plus.   Watching a couple more smaller south swells for mid to late week.   More to come, cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST - HURRICANE HILARY

New shorter period Gulf/Wind swell showing north of Jenner this morning - 8-10ft @9-10 seconds, steep angle - 315 plus degrees.  Most of this swell will by pass spots south of Bodega Bay.  All eyes to the south as Hurricane Hilary makes its approach.  LA has its first ever Tropical Storm Warning hoisted and Hilary will be the first tropical system to make land fall to our south since 1939!   But what about swell for Central/Nor Cal?   Because the storm is hugging Baja and the strongest winds are on the East side of the system, super steep angled southerly swell will begin to migrate north through the weekend.   I'm talking super steep - 150-165 degrees which will miss most of our coast.   However, given the size of the storm and sea heights, good south swell spots will no doubt pull in some energy Sunday night through Tuesday morning.   How big, hard to say just yet - certainly So Cal will be quite large at times but also very windy/stormy.  For us, Monday looks like the best day, deep water potentially going 3-5 ft @ 14-16 seconds.    Heavy rain to our south with major flooding looks likely, some potential for rain Santa Cruz north to Pt Arena, but very light amounts.  Bigger issue will be potential for thunderstorms and more dry lightening which has sparked a whole host of fires in Trinity, Humboldt and Del Norte counties.   Very dynamic period coming up - especially with a low pressure system parked off the West Coast due to move ashore, Hilary and a steering ridge of high pressure to our east.  Water temps very warm upper 50s to low 60s - last cold water remnants of La Niña are gone.  The Papa Buoy, (600nm from Eureka) one of the offshore buoys has stopped reporting this past week - so NOAA will have to pull and repair at some point.   Be a bummer to have that off line as fall/winter starts as it's a reliable indicator of the size of incoming swell trains.  Cya in the water!  

UPDATED FORECAST - 8-16

 Interesting forecast for the next week or so.  First off, the N Pac is active and we will have another shot of shorter period, good size wind swell starting Friday - lasting into Sunday - deep water from 6-11ft - larger north of Bodega Bay.   N winds tick back up starting Friday night, lasting through Sunday.   South swell fades some Thursday, then ticks back up Friday to Sunday which might include some hurricane swell from a Hurricane Fernanda which is about 900 miles south of San Diego.   There is a bigger tropical system likely turning into a hurricane over the next 24 hours which will track right up Baja (parallel to Baja) starting Monday 8-21.   The first tropical swell from Fernanda will just mix in with existing southern hemisphere swells to give things a boost - that 2nd tropical swell, if it develops as forecast - could end up being pretty solid if it gets some good purchase over the open ocean and climbs in the CA swell window.   Better idea on that by the weekend.   With El Niño fully pushing now i  expect the remainder of the East Pacific Hurricane season will be quite active.   Get some, cya in the water.  

FIRST NORTHWEST SWELL OF THE SEASON.....

 Very early northwest swell is slowly filling in this morning - coming in a bit bigger than models had forecast - 7-8ft @13-14 seconds from 299.   Smaller south of Bodega Bay at the moment - 3-4 ft.   Meanwhile, New Zealand South Swell keeps giving - 2.2 ft @17 from 200.  Look for very light winds today through Thursday as high pressure is overhead - with an uptick towards some northwest winds this coming weekend, but that might be overdone, or at least staying over the outer waters.   Sure looking and feeling a lot like early fall!   South swell should stick around most of the week.   Northwest swell to slow fade into Wednesday and then might see another pulse by next Saturday.   Keeping an eye on a Hurricane Fernanda which is moving into our swell window to the north & west of Baja with sustained winds of 95kts and gusts to 110kts.   Could see some steep angle swell from that system mid to late week.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 8-11

 Screenshot from of an early season storm moving through the Gulf of Alaska - which is going to give us a pulse of northwest swell early next week.  Will be on the small side, mid period - likely deepwater swell 4-5ft at 13sec from 307 deg.   Not unusual to see storm activity in mid August with a building El Niño, a sign of things to come most likely.   Until then, waiting for a southwest New Zealand swell to hit the coastal waters later today (south) and most likely through the day on Saturday from Santa Cruz north.   Still expect that swell to be around 2-3 ft (deep water) periods 16-17 sec to start and leveling off 14-15 sec from 220 deg.  Winds may flex a bit from the northwest today and tonight - north of Bodega, but then settle in everywhere on the light side through Tuesday.   We may be coming to a point where we see the departure of the northwest winds for good, especially if we quickly transition to a fall set up with incoming systems to the northwest and offshore flow.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 8-8 - EL NINO MACHINE BEGINS AGAIN......

 The large scale mechanics of a building El Niño, stalled for a few weeks, has rapidly started up again in the Pacific.   Sea surface temps (SSTs) are warming quickly in two key regions that weather forecasters use to predict the strength of an El Niño - Nino 1.2 and Nino 3.4.   Storm production in theory should pick up and we do have a new storm in the Southeast Pacific sending a swell up for late week as well as a very interesting storm forecast in the North Pacific resulting in swell building potentially late next weekend into the following week.   While the activity in the South Pacific looks to continue to ramp up through late August, the building El Niño might just launch us right into fall swells for CA.   Look for this New Zealand south swell to start showing late Thursday, but best and biggest Friday through Sunday.   Nothing epic, but that corridor down under is usually a good direction for us - 210-220 deg.  Deep water swell should max around 2-2.5ft.   Winds look to wind down some through the week, which might help the swell hold together as it comes around Pt Conception for points north on the CA coast.   More on the Gulf action later this week as the storm comes together.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 8-3 - first hints of new south showing

 Don't get overly excited, but seeing some forerunners of a new south starting to build offshore at 2-3@20 seconds, from 200 plus degrees.   This is a swell that developed in the Tasman Sea and should provide a bit of relief over the next few days and a couple pulses run in and overlap.   Probably won't see anything over 2-3ft at the outer buoys, so it's small wave gear material for sure.   The El Niño pump has now restarted - so it will be interesting to see what develops over the next few weeks.   Wind wise for us the next few days - more of the same - northwest blows each day - small craft advisory up through late Friday - so breezy, but south facing spots will be more protected from the wind.   Cya in the water.  

AUGUST 1

 Late summer, September will be here soon enough.  We are waiting for the very large global ocean and air mechanisms, in this case El Niño, to shift into high gear and prime the pumps for swell production for the southern hemisphere spring and the northern hemisphere fall.   Until that starts to happen, and seeing signs of it now, we won't have much to ride in CA for the next week or more.  We are also locked in this low pressure bias in the N Pac and very strong high pressure ridge to our east over the southwest US - which is just enough of a tug of war to keep strong northwest winds in check, just enough to mess up the surf but not enough to create the usual summer wind swell pattern we get on the north coast.  Large pool of cold water off CA and Baja, remnants of La Niña are showing signs of retreat, once that is gone surface temps in almost the entire Pacific Basin will be warm to very warm.   Watch and wait, cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 7-29 - not much change, small south......

 Small surf, marginal conditions continue.  We do have a south swell in the water this weekend and will stay in the background through mid week - but don't expect anything over 2-3ft (deep water).  Some buoys are showing 3@14 this am, Cape Mendo and then points south.  With the incoming tide, spots that can pull in this small swell might be ok as the winds are fairly light right now near shore.  We are waiting for the El Niño pump to re start in early August - which should start to fuel storm production in the southern hemisphere again and perhaps up north.   Until then, get what you can.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 7-22 - No surf for you.

 Golf, hiking, fishing, riding a bike, working in your garden, traveling someplace that actually has surf - these are things you can do in the summer when you have no surf around your local spots - which is what we have had now for quite a while and looks to continue for the foreseeable future.  We are waiting for the El Niño pump to start up again - it's been on pause for two/three weeks - but looks to push again starting Early August - which will hopefully start up storm production Down Under and perhaps start to fuel activity towards the N Pac for early fall.   Until all that - its northwest winds and crappy short period wind swell.   The winds over the outer waters are just enough to mess up everything but not strong enough or sustained enough to generate some larger wind swell (over 10ft ideal) for any kind of rideable waves near shore.   So, we wait.   Hang in there, August around the corner and September beyond.   Cya in the garden.  

UPDATED FORECAST - MAYBE SOME WIND SWELL HOPE INTO THE WEEKEND......

Not much on the charts right now from the S Pac or N Pac.  The South Pacific is basically asleep with blocking high pressure down under preventing storms from getting any traction over the open ocean.  Minimal background south swell to continue and might tick up a notch by this weekend as the storm corridor between New Zealand and South America remains barely open.   Up around our parts, the N Pac is under high pressure for the most part, although small systems continue to drift over the top of the ridge to the far north.   But none of these systems are generating swell.  We will have very strong northwest winds the rest of the week over the northern outer waters and that should generate some larger wind swell by Friday and Saturday with deep water heights reaching 8-10 feet Friday, 9-11 ft on Saturday.  As such, some low period wind swell should propagate into the inner waters this weekend - but biggest north of Bodega Bay.   SF/Bay Area likely to be an ugly mess with the winds.  The one wild card is the heat wave coming that might suppress winds near shore.  That would be most likely for Saturday/Sunday.  Get what you can, it's almost September, see you in the water.   

4TH OF JULY WEEKEND FORECAST.....

Friday morning - mini south swell dribbles and some short period steep angle wind swell around 6-7 ft at 8 seconds - not pretty stuff.  Our only hope for the next 4-5 days is just more wind swell - which should increase in size over the weekend as the northwest wind machine is going to crank up over the northern outer waters through the 4th.   As a result - look for wind swell to increase in size to 8-10 ft Saturday, 7-9ft on Sunday when the period gets to around 10 secs.   Biggest north of SF.   Overall it's going to be windy at the coast, with fog, hot inland - typical July summer weather for Nor Cal.   Tropics are active down around Mexico with Hurricane Adrian and Tropical Storm Beatriz.   At this time neither is a swell maker for Nor Cal as the angle is too steep and tucked under Baja.  Trip to Cabo right now would be the call.  Get what you can - only two more months until Sept.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 6-24- STAYING SMALL

 Not much going on right now - dog days - very small wind swell, background southern hemisphere - looks to be the norm for a while.  Good time to hit the beach breaks, mow, go fishing, take a trip where there are waves.   On a positive note, Summer Solstice has passed, moving back a day at time now towards Fall and an El Niño infused surf season.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 6-16 - WINDS TO CRANK UP

 Another relatively decent wind day ahead on Friday and then things change for the weekend and beyond as a very deep and unseasonable low pressure system drops out of the Gulf of AK into the Pac NW and far Nor Cal.  Northwest winds will really crank up tonight with gusts to 45kts and sustained winds on Sat/Sun look to be 20-25kts with gusts to 40-45kt.  This is mostly the northern outer waters, but expect pretty blustery conditions along the coast and inland.   Winds of this strength will ramp up the wind swell, which will be the dominant source of waves.   Look for wind waves 9-10 ft through Sunday.   Background south at 2ft - but hardly noticeable north of Santa Cruz.   Fog remains an issue up and down the coast and as long as we're in this low pressure regime - don't look for it to clear much anytime soon.  In fact the next week or so will be unseasonably cool.  Might even see some snow showers over the Shasta/Trinity region and the Northern Sierra.  Is this summer odd, it is somewhat, but we are also heading into an El Niño fall/winter - low pressure the rule in the Pacific - typhoons already recurving from the far West Pac into the Gulf - in June - which is not something we normally see until late Aug or Early September.  There is a lot of energy already in the Pacific Basin - warm air, warm water - that leads to more rain, strong low pressure - probably some very large surf this fall.   Stay tuned.  Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 6-9 - SLOW DOWN IN SWELL.....

South swell fading tonight - 2-3ft at 13-14 seconds, dribbling in compared to the past couple days.  Hope you got some this week as it's going to get a bit weak over the next 5-7 days with minor south pulses and some minimal windswell.   We are suppose to see a tiny northwest swell at 2-3 ft at 15 seconds starting Saturday.   In fact the West Oregon Buoy is showing 5-6 ft at 14 seconds from the northwest - so there is a small pulse from that northern direction.  Northwest winds crank up tonight through the weekend, so if you live by a spot that likes some northwest wind swell you might have some better options through the period.  Winds let up briefly on Monday, then back on thereafter.   The nice run of winds and good waves behind us for a while.   Weather wise - looking and feeling very much like an El Niño summer - low pressure lurking about, muggy at times, but also still quite cool by June standards in CA.   In fact, El Niño is already starting to have an influence over the far West Pacific as two typhoons have now both recurved and tracked north and east into the Gulf of Alaska - in June - something you don't usually see until late summer/early fall.  It appears we might be heading for a very strong El Niño for the 2023/2024 Season.   Stay tuned.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 6-5 - WINDS EASE....

Northwest winds should leave us this week as low pressure currently off the So Cal/Central Cal Coast spins turning the winds counter clockwise or south to southeast for us.  Chance of showers will be hit and miss all week - mostly inland.  Fog is back and will stick around as long as the flow is south.   Windswell still in the water this AM - 8-9ft at 11 seconds from 320-330 - - really steep - and south swell in the water 2-3 ft at 15-17 seconds from 175.  Pulses of south swell all week as the wind swell takes a back seat (due to lack of high pressure gradient creating winds in the outer waters).    Northwest winds look to return by Friday but much lighter than last week - only 10-15 kts.   Cya in the water.    

UPDATED FORECAST - 5-29

Happy Memorial Day Weekend.   Old south is fading out while a new southwest swell is slowly filling in. So Cal buoys picking up on this energy - about 2-3 ft at 20 seconds.  Showing as far north as the SF Bar Buoy - picking up 4ft at 20 seconds from 200 plus deg.   Swell will get up towards Pt Arena overnight and should be hitting the entire coast by late Sunday morning.   North of Bodega lot of northwest windswell in the water - 7-8ft @9 sec from 315 plus.   Winds are mostly northwest over the outer waters and some nearshore waters - the winds will turn southeast again for Monday - 10-15 kts with stronger gusts as we get a southerly wind reversal - which will bring in even more fog for Monday morning - not like we haven't had enough as it is already.   Low pressure system is dropping down the State, kicking up thunderstorms over the interior & Sierra, some of these might make it to the Mendocino Coast late today.  Southwest swell looks to stick around through Wednesday right now.   Winds should veer back to the northwest Tuesday on.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 5-22

 Strong northwest winds have been blowing over the outer waters for the past 48 hours and will continue to do so for the next 48 hours.  As a result, wind swell has come up 9-14 ft at 8-10 seconds, biggest north of Bodega Bay.   Very steep angle due to the wind direction, 325 deg, so for tucked away spots very small surf will result.  Wind swell will peak in size Tuesday/Wednesday - 10-13 ft @11 seconds.   So it's something to ride.   South swell stays on the smaller side all week, but we will see pulses all week, building some into Thursday/Friday as a somewhat larger southeast swell builds in from about 195-200 deg.   Don't expect any of these souths to be like the last run - most likely staying around 2 ft with 17-20 sec period.   No real break all week in the winds until about Friday, and even then only forecast to drop to 10-15 knots.   Late Spring, it's all going as planned.   The only other change in the weather this week will be cooler temps region wide, as a low pressure system hangs out, chance of some showers in the mountains and ongoing fog.  No big warm up expected.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 5-17 - Solid run of south swell to continue

 Buoys showing deepwater around 3ft @17 which will continue today, heading up some tonight and tomorrow to 3-4@19-20 seconds!   Unfortunately northwest winds will crank back up with small craft advisory level winds for most of the Coast through the weekend.  Look for the south swell to stick around through the weekend, gradual fade of energy.    

UPDATED FORECAST 5-13, Gulf Swell, more South

 N Pac swell just showing at outer buoys - 7-8ft @14.   Mixed in some wind swell in the 7 sec range and south swell continuing at 2.9@14.   South fades some today before a new pulse of south swell starts to build in Sunday.   N Pac swell will gradually fade into Monday, but still decent on Sunday.   Winds light right now but will push strong from the northwest again later today.  It is Spring after all and it wouldn't be Nor Cal without a fresh northwest wind.   Hot inland today, seasonable at the coast.  Wind reversal tomorrow will start to slow the heat wave some, with light south winds building through the day, continuing into Monday.   Winds head back to the northwest by Tuesday.   South swell run looks to continue into next week as well.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 5-5, RUN OF SOUTHWEST SWELL

 Clean conditions to start the day in between late season storms.   New long period southwest swell is filling in - about 2ft at 18sec from 215.   Northwest swell from the past two days is fading at 4-5ft @13sec.  Look for the southwest swell to continue through weekend and into the first part of next week with long period wave heights staying around 2-3 ft.   Fairly light west to south winds today & tomorrow, then more southwest wind on Sunday turning northwest again on Tuesday - as we have a couple more small rain makers set to come through the region.   Rain later today, spreading south and then again on Monday.   South Pacific is for sure turning on so expect things to continue to pick up through the end of May.  Should see less activity from the N Pac, but given the energy out there and El Niño in development, would not be surprised by a few more very off season pulses of northwest swell.   Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 4-29 - FIRST SOUTH OF SEASON

 First run of south swells mid stream right now - long period swell 2-4ft at 17-19 seconds from 175-185.   Winds are light south, but light northwest above Bodega Bay.   Northwest winds will ramp up through the weekend and south swell will gradually fade towards Monday.  Before that, a large off season northwest swell will build in Sunday night - 8-10 ft at 16 seconds, swell continues Monday at 9-10ft at 14 seconds and still solid Tuesday at 8-10 ft, before a slow fade about Wednesday.  Winds may start to drop again by Monday/Tuesday - lot of variability right now with the wind forecast due to high pressure leaving the region being replaced by a low pressure system which will impact our weather most of next week with cooler temps and some bouts of very light rain forecast.   All n' all, plenty of waves, check the winds and cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST - APR 23

Appears that winter is finally over - strong northwest winds and meager swell the rule of late.  Some hope this coming week with a couple small northwest swells to overlap and then a fun size pulse of south swell for next weekend.  Early indications the south will feature deep water heights 2-3ft from around 200 deg.   Northwest swell Monday/Tuesday - 3-5 ft at 12-14 secs.   Strong northwest winds through about Thursday, then winds might lighten up some just in time to let the south work its way up the Coast.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST APRIL 16TH

 Small northwest swell filling in this afternoon - 5-6@14.   Winds aren't ideal, they will be better tomorrow for morning sessions.  Swell will thicken up a bit - 6@13 sec.   Incoming storm system will generate rain north of Sonoma County - none expected for the Bay Area.   Northwest swell picks up more on Tuesday - 10-12@13, 7-8 ft@12 on Wednesday - then fading the rest of the week.   Winds don't really look that bad until next Thursday when the northwest wind machine ramps up again.  It is spring after all! Something to ride at least - cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST - APRIL 9

Light winds, nice weather on tap today and tomorrow with inbound swell.   Starting to see that swell at the outer buoys this am - 9-10 ft @14 seconds.  Swell will roll in mid day north of Bodega Bay, by late afternoon/early evening Bay Area.   Winds should remain light all day, although Bay Area spots will see an onshore sea breeze pick up later afternoon.   Swell looks to stick around through Tuesday at 7-8 ft at 13 seconds.   Northwest winds will pick up Tuesday and look to blow through the extended as high pressure builds over the region.   Rain staying to the far north for now, while models hint at a very weak system by this time next week.   Spring has finally arrived, but I'd say expect on and off showers through the month of April as the pattern remains favorable and the high pressure bias we've seen over the past years is not as strong.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST - LATE MARCH

 Today and tomorrow will feature sunshine before the next weather system moves in for the weekend.   This upcoming storm won't be that strong, just more showers on and off Sat/Sun.   Beyond that the pattern stays unsettled into the first week in April and perhaps a bit more into the month before I'm starting to perhaps see a start to more spring like weather for CA.   Surf looks to stay pretty small with mixed swells from the northwest and some south swell.   Today the northwest is only around 5@11,  with trace of long period south from 180 degrees but probably not noticeable at 0.8 ft @20.  That south is forecast to get to 2@16 by Saturday.   NW winds today over the outer waters, might be lighter near shore.   Winds turn south tomorrow and Saturday as the next storm arrives - but remaining pretty light.   NW winds return behind the front Sunday, Monday and beyond with an uptick in northwest swell 6-8 ft by Monday.   Pretty much looking like spring time surf conditions/wave heights.   We might still see some swell from the N Pac as i  think the pattern will remain very active well into April and perhaps May as El Niño builds, but best to start keeping an eye on the S Pac now to see if we get some early season swells.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - MID MARCH

 Surf remains on the very small side through the weekend.   Light winds today, turning strong south/southeast tonight into Sunday as a storm system comes ashore bringing widespread rain from Santa Cruz to Pt Arena.   Surf is going to stay small through the weekend unfortunately and don't see much increase until mid week when a modest west swell fills in - likely only 7-9 ft, longer period on Wednesday.     North to northwest winds will increase behind the front next week and on and off rain showers seem possible, but no flooding issues.   Winter not done yet, but for sure looking and feeling like spring time surf.   Small wave gear for sure.   Cya in the water.   

MARCH

March 1 is usually the end of the "good" waves season for Nor Cal.   No different this March, but we do have XL surf today 9-12 ft @14 sec from 310-320 - steep angle due in most part to the long fetch of north/northwest wind behind this front currently hitting CA.   Overall the pattern stays wet with junky south to southwest to west winds through the next week.   Swell will trend down after Monday night, staying mid size through Thursday.   On and off rain in the forecast and if you read the NOAA forecasts the models are starting to hint at another series of AR (atmospheric river) events starting March 10/11.   La Niña is dead.  The Active MJO is flexing and the Pacific has more tricks ahead for us before we see the end of this epic winter season for weather.  So, there will be waves around - not ideal, but stuff to ride if you know where to look.  Cya in the water!  

UPDATED FORECAST FEB 25

 Impressive winter storm over the past few days dropped snow to the coast north of Pt Arena, folks skiing on Mt Tam and everywhere record snowfall totals for places not accustomed to seeing any snow at all.  The pattern that has set up out in the Pacific is conducive to a lot more weather into the first week of March and probably beyond - but will it also generate surf?  For the most part yes, but with steeper angled northwest swells due in part to low pressure being anchored further up in the NE Pacific.   We still have some residual swell from this past event at 8-10ft this am - with light winds nearshore.   Winds will pick up later today.   Winds do look highly variable the next 5-7 days with rain, passing fronts, strong south winds in advance at times and strong nw winds behind.   Swell looks to crank back up Monday 12-15 ft (larger north of Bodega) and Tuesday, fading some into Wednesday but still solid.  La Niña is gone and we  are headed to El Niño late year.   My sense reading the tea leaves, very wet spring to come with a lot of wind and a very warm summer ahead.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST FEB 16TH

 South winds blowing on most of the Coast today as a storm system is circulating just off the West Coast due to move south and inland starting Friday.   Minimal rain chances except along the immediate coastline as the main movement of the storm will be to the south.   New long period swell will build overnight 4-6 ft @ 19 seconds while an older northwest swell fades 3-4 @12 seconds.  Swell direction around 300 degrees.   Winds will shift strongly to the north through the holiday weekend - creating large windswell of 11-13ft by Monday/Tuesday.   Background, smaller northwest swells linger through the next five days or so.   These will all be longer period northwest swells.    Late next week, pattern could see a major shift out in the Pacific as the jetstream looks to get robust coming off Japan at 200kt - this should support storm development as well as a rainy pattern again potentially for CA.    La Niña has faded, we are in ENSO neutral now moving towards El Niño later this year (summer).   Will be interesting to see if we have a late winter run of weather and swell that holds into April and May.   All will be revealed over the next couple weeks!  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST FEB 6

 Windy start to the week, but things will settle down mid week as high pressure builds in.   AM sessions might see some offshore winds, especially around the Bay Area.   Swell jumped up overnight and is around 14ft @ 14 seconds from 300.   Bigger than forecast.   North winds blowing over the outer waters and near shore in spots along the coast.   Swell will gradually fade overnight but a new long period northwest swell will build in on Tuesday - peaking Tuesday PM/Wednesday AM at 8-9ft @16 seconds.   That swell fades Thursday and another builds in on Friday.   Lightest winds for midweek, but it will be a bit breezy everywhere.   Plenty of swell around, just have to know your spots.   Rain might come back into the picture next weekend.   Out around the 19th of Feb, things might get interesting with our weather as the jet stream organizes and gets charged by the Active MJO.    Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 1-26

Super clean conditions the past few days with today and tomorrow likely the best to come for a while as the pattern will shift back this weekend to low pressure driven - with a system dropping south out of BC over the weekend with strong winds, light rain and low elevation snow.   Current swell has dropped overnight - but still super fun size 7@14 seconds.  Winds are offshore.  Tonight - another smaller, long period swell from the west will build in - 2-4ft@21 seconds and build to 4-5ft @18 on Friday.   Northwest winds will be on the rise all day Friday and get quite strong over the weekend - especially north of Pt Reyes.  Swell will stay small size at 5@15 - with some larger wind swell building in all weekend.   It does look like we will transition back to a stormy pattern sometime in early February - not like the Mid January events - just regular winter weather for Nor Cal.   So get it today and maybe tomorrow, then you'll be back into less clean environs into next week.  Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 1-17

 Well, that was an interesting 10 days or so!   Storm track will send one more pulse our way on Wednesday and then high pressure builds in for the next 7-10 days.   Surf will stay on the larger side through the week with winds gradually changing over to north and northwest, cold mornings and seasonable afternoons.  After all this rain there should be some good sand bars up and down the coast at spots that normally don't feature a decent wave.   Winter is not even close to over and long term models show us with more wet weather through the season as La Niña is fading and we start to transition to El Niño late this year.  Should be an interesting time.   Check the winds this week, plenty of swell around.  Cya in the water.  

STORMAGGEDON......

 This is one big, dynamic storm system headed our way for tomorrow into Thursday.   Take this system seriously as it's going to pack a punch.  Besides long period storm surf along the lines of 22-25 ft at 17 seconds on Wednesday - heavy rain, big time winds, combined with all the recent rain and wet soils will really create some potential problems from the King Range south through Carmel.   Check the NWS links on my blog for Eureka and Monterey/SF.  As for surfing - I'm sure there will be a few spots going off and working, guess it depends on how eager you are to surf!    Rain and wind, big swell looks to continue through Mid January.  Winter is back in CA as La Niña exits the stage - thankfully.   Cya in the water.