SMALL SWELLS UPCOMING WEEK, CHANCE OF RAIN

Early season storm is dropping south out of BC this morning and will bring rain to most of Northwestern CA through tomorrow.  Rain may not make it all the way to the Bay Area, but points from Marin north should see some beneficial early season moisture.  Swell should stay small to mid size this week with mid period northwest swells the predominant source of energy.  Winds may be problematic shifting between south/southwest and northwest before and prior to front passage.   By mid week, rain chance will end and we will dry out.  No large swells on the horizon yet, but the storm track is getting busy and low pressure systems are moving through.   Check the winds, should be some swell around - cya in the water.

RUN OF SMALL SWELLS THIS WEEK.....

Couple of swells in the water this AM.  Swell from former Hurricane Jeanette is 3ft at 11 sec.   Forerunners of a couple New Zealand swells are showing - 2-3 at 18-20 seconds.  Small wind swell 3 at 9 sec.  The NZ swells will fill in today and tomorrow and hang around a good part of the coming week - joined by another NZ swell mid week to reinforce.  Should also see a shot of northwest wind swell around mid week - 5ft at 9-10 seconds.  The NZ swells are all approaching from around 210 degrees plus.  North swell will be from 310.   Northwest winds look likely for most of the upcoming week - but early morning sessions might have some moments at the right spots.   Basically small scale surf all week, but something to ride.   Cya in the water.

SEPTEMBER

Welcome to the 2019/2020 season.  Made it through another summer.   Couple swells in the water this AM.   Small southwest swell with periods 15-17 secs, around 2-3 ft.  There is also a small west/northwest swell from 300 degrees in the water - about 2ft.  Small wind swell at 2-3ft.   SW is certainly the dominant swell in the area.   Looking ahead to mid week, have our first northwest swell of September on the horizon for mid week.  Forerunners Tuesday night at 2ft at 20 seconds.   Filling in Wednesday at 3-5ft at 19 seconds.  Period should start to drop Thursday into Friday and fade out.   Good sign however that the N Pac is already starting to wake up and come online.  Winds are light this am with fog along the coast.  May see an up tick in northwest winds over the next couple afternoons.   But strongest over the outer waters.   cya in the water.

N PAC STIRS.....

Signs of life have begun in the North Pacific.  Low pressure system is dropping south today in the Gulf and will push onshore mid week - BC and Pac Northwest.  Chance of rain very far north - Del Norte/Humboldt as well.   Enough wind is blowing over the ocean to generate some mid period northwest swell - which should roll in late Wednesday (far Nor Cal) and fill in everywhere during Thursday.   Nothing epic mind you, but given the past couple weeks anything will work.  Probably looking at swell 5-6 ft at 13 seconds on Wednesday and 6-7 at 12 seconds Thursday.  Swell dir 290-295.  Late season New Zealand south swell to fill in Thursday and Friday - probably along the lines of 2-3 ft 18-20 seconds.  Northwest winds are going to ramp up again today through end of week.  Strongest over the outer waters and far north.  The South Pacific is definitely showing signs of slowing down for the season, as Down Under moves into spring and we transition to fall.   All eyes for us then turn to the N Pac as September approaches.  Cya in the water.

AUGUST!

One month to go until September 1, which is usually the start of the better waves season around these parts.   We do have some tropical swell mixing in today at 2ft @11-12 seconds - from Hurricane Flossie and some longer period background southern hemisphere swell later in the day.  Windswell still in the water too - short period stuff.  Winds are not ideal - mix of southwest to northwest depending on location - some lighter south winds as well.  Look for the northwest wind flow to pick up as the day goes.  Should be a few places to ride.   Hang in there - relief will be along soon.  Cya in the water.  

DOG DAYS.....

Northwest winds, short period windswell.  Late July.   That's what we've got.   Could see an uptick in the windswell mid week - small background south in the water as well but it's going to get ripped to shreds coming around Pt Conception between the wind and north flow moving south.   Good week to get some work done.   Hang in, September isn't too far off.....cya in the water.

NEXT NZ SWELL IN THE CUE, SMALL NW

Current NZ southwest swell fading today, but still decent at 3ft 15-16 sec from 190.  Look for the last in the series starting late Saturday into Sunday/Monday - initially long periods in the 22 sec band late Saturday, then 2-3 ft at 20-21 sec on Sunday.  Size/period fades Monday.  We also have a mid period, off season northwest swell/wind swell running in today and tomorrow - should peak at 4-5ft at 9-10 seconds.   This is from a Gulf Low that has been circulating in the North East Pac for the past week and has finally faded to be replaced by high pressure.  North winds will increase today and into most of next week as the summertime thermal low sets up shop again over the California Central Valley and the gradient pressure difference between the two drives the wind.  Cya in the water.

NEXT NZ SWELL INBOUND, HURRICANE SWELL FADES

Swell from Hurricane Barbara topping out today - 2-3 ft at 12-13 seconds from 180.   Secondary NZ swell is in the water as well - 3ft at 15-16 seconds from 200-210.  Bigger NZ swell is en route for late tomorrow and will come in 2ft at 20-21 seconds from 210.    This swell will peak Monday and Tuesday with size about the same - 2-3ft at 18-19 seconds.  Not much relief in the northwest winds, especially north of Jenner until the start of next week as high pressure moves more over CA and reduces the pressure gradient.   Until then, pretty strong northwest winds expected, perhaps a touch lighter near the Bay Area.   Plenty to ride for sure, just need to find some shelter from the winds. Cya in the water.

TRACKING NEW ZEALAND SWELL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK

Good size storm system near New Zealand last week has created a swell that is moving north and should arrive around our area early next week.  Long period forerunners on Monday - 1-2ft at 20-21 sec from 214.  Decent bit of west in this swell given it's origins.  Swell will build further on Tuesday to 2-2.5ft at 18-19 sec.   Being a slow fade into next Thursday beyond that.   Not much relief in winds for the week ahead - will remain steady from the northwest as is typical for this time of year.  Only upside will be ongoing wind swell to give us something to ride.   Water temps not that bad 53-55 north to south, although pockets of 49 deg water exist near shore once you get north of Jenner.  That's about all we have for the moment - after this NZ swell it's going quiet again Down Under.   Tropical storm Alvin in the East Pac is first named storm of the season but not a swell producer for us.   Cya in the water.  

JUNE!

Fog at the coast, warm inland.  June.  Look for more fog than usual (if that's even possible in Nor Cal) this summer due in part to the very cold ocean temps.   Ideal for fog creation as northwest winds blow over the open ocean.   Today, winds have reversed to a south to southeast flow.   Swell is a mix - fading south, windswell and later incoming Central Pacific South swell.   Fading swell is around 1.5 to 1.9 at 14 seconds, windswell 4-6 at 9-10 seconds.   The Central Pac swell should come in later around 2ft at 17.  This swell will be our primary swell for the next few days, sticking around through Thursday as a reinforcing shot comes through Tuesday.  Swell direction will be focused about 190-197 degrees.   Winds look to stay strong northwest over the outer waters through the extended period, but near shore with the fog and local eddy's could see lighter winds from the south.   Highly variable so check the wind links on this page before you venture out.   Water temps are cold - 48 north of Bodega,  around 53 SF.   Cya in the water.  

LARGE WEST SWELL INBOUND....UNSETTLED LATE MAY CONDITIONS....

If you've been keeping track, we've actually had measurable rain now in CA for almost seven months.  Pretty crazy.   Large surf and a lot of wind is on tap for the rest of the week as swell trains roll in from  low pressure anchored in the Gulf of AK, rotating spokes of energy at CA every few days.   Look for deepwater swell Wednesday 15-16ft at 12 seconds, gradually fading through the weekend but hovering around 8-10ft with howling northwest winds through the period.  That will tumble water temps again!   In short, plenty to ride if you know where to look and can get out of the wind.  Cya in the water.

STRONG SW SWELL PEAKING TODAY.....

Deepwater swell is 3.5 at 15 from 195 - quite solid this AM.   Current swell is peaking today and will have a gradual fade into the back half of the week.   Meanwhile, a new northwest swell and another round of southwest swells will move in.   The northwest will come in for Wed/Thurs and the long period forerunners of our next southwest swell will start to show late week, into Saturday, then getting pretty solid for Sunday/Monday.   Good run of waves for sure and the southwest swell should stick around until mid month.  Winds look light today, variable depending on location from southwest winds to north winds.  Stronger north winds tomorrow as high pressure builds in, but then fading wind speeds into the weekend.   The wind pattern is very hard to nail down at present due in part to the deep marine layer and various disturbances passing to our north and east.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - COUPLE SOUTH SWELLS

Southern Hemi swells hitting this week.  Today you'll find deep water swell around 2ft at 14-15 secs from 190.   Stronger south swell is forecast for this coming weekend - building Sunday at 2ft @18 sec, peaking Monday/Tuesday with deep water swell 3ft at 14-15 seconds.   Swell direction around 187deg.   Winds are a bit lighter than they've been, but will remain from the northwest given the time of year.   Something to ride at least at the south facing spots.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - LATE APRIL & BEYOND....

Spring time northwest winds for the foreseeable future.   Very cold water temps with all the upwelling.   Upper 40s north of Jenner.  Mid period northwest swell will continue through the week staying between 5-8ft with periods 11-13 seconds.   Bigger the further north you go.   High pressure is assuming it's place in the northeast Pacific, typical of the season.   I'll keep an eye on the southern hemisphere and update as those swells start working north.   Same goes for anything unusual from the north.   But expect reports to be a bit more infrequent until later in the summer.   Enjoy your Spring and Summer - let's all pray for a good south swell season.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - APRIL 6

Very large northwest swell was showing at outer buoys last night - 20plus feet at 17 sec at Papa Buoy.    Swell will roll in late day/tonight and peak tomorrow.   Look for deepwater 12-15ft Bay Area, 14-20ft further north.   Look for south to southwest winds through Monday night.   Strong northwest winds next Tuesday/Wednesday with fairly large surf continuing.   In short, it's Spring, but doesn't really look and feel like it other than those northwest winds creeping into the picture next week.   Unsettled pattern to continue through most of next week.   Waves around for sure if you know where to look!  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 3-24/STORMY PATTERN CONTINUES.....

Solid West swell still showing today 10ft @ 15 seconds from 290.   Look for swell to slowly wind down into Monday but remain good size.  South to southeast winds are blowing light right now but will strengthen overnight as the next storm system takes aim at Nor Cal.   Look for rain and south winds Monday, surf remaining 8-10ft @14.   Southeast winds on Tuesday as swell drops to 7-8ft.   Next storm system rolls in Tuesday night with rain likely.   Rain showers Wednesday and southwest winds.   Light northwest winds showing for Thursday with swell 7-9ft.   Plenty of size, lots of wind from different directions but there will be places that are rideable.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 3-16

Light winds will continue until Tuesday, especially for morning sessions along the Coast.  Look for mid period west/northwest swell to stay around 5-7 ft - 12-14 seconds through the period.  High pressure will break down Tuesday giving way to a series of storms that will move through the region through next weekend.   Nothing that strong, light rain, but winds will ramp up from the south/southeast Tuesday and then then shift back to the northwest on Wednesday.   All in all, not a bad run of conditions for Mid March.   Cya in the water.

MARCH

March 1 - the end of the "good" wave season.   However, pretty clean today with northeast winds and long period swell 5-8ft at 17 seconds from 305.   Winds should be good through tomorrow morning and then shift southeast as the next storm comes ashore later tomorrow morning bringing rain to the Bay Area.   Swell will start to fade Saturday night and looks to remain on the smallish side through next Tuesday with periods of rain on and off through that time frame.   Winds will vary, light west to to northwest in between storms and ramp up from the southeast as fronts push ashore.  N Pac staying pretty active into March so one would expect better than average swell production from the region.   Stay tuned and cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - 2-24

Another series of storms is taking aim on Northern and Central CA - with rain and wind forecast on and off for the next week.   Surprisingly, fairly small surf expected, even with all the storminess.   Part of the reason for this is that the systems are very warm and moist and lacking a really strong or defined low pressure system driving winds in the open ocean.  As a result, looking for west to northwest swell through Thursday at around 4-7 ft, with mid periods - 10-13 seconds.  Winds will be strong south tonight through Monday night - potentially turn northeast on Tuesday and then back to strong south to southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday.   Lighter northwest winds forecast Thursday.   So this type of set up might favor the beach breaks overall.   Keep an eye on it - check the winds.  Get what you can because Spring is lurking.  I've got a feeling we're going to be in for a very windy,  cold March-May once the pattern starts to shift and high pressure begins to establish itself in the N Pac.   Cya in the water.  

PAPA BUOY - 29FT AT 16SEC

Another giant swell hitting the outer buoys.  Unfortunately - just too much weather, wind and general storminess to contend with for a few more days.   Episodes of rain/showers off and on and no real decent conditions.  Might find a few places to ride if you have time to scout around - otherwise - might see some calmer conditions going into next week for a few days as high pressure tries to gain control.   Until then, get what you can.   Cya in the water.

BIG STORMY

A very strong low pressure system is just offshore Pt Arena this am, bringing winds, rain to CA.   Swell is around 12 ft @11 - with strong southeast winds.   Look for rain turning to showers all day long with strong winds.   Winds will turn southwest and then west through Monday with another swell rolling through at 8-10 at 14 seconds.   Much bigger west swell for middle of next week when deep water swell jumps to 12-15 ft on Tuesday.   Winds will northwest turning north by that time.  Very cold temps to come in Sunday into Monday as another system drops down out of BC.   Plenty of swell, just need to pick your spots.   Cya in the water.

HIGH PRESSURE - MID SIZE WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELLS

High pressure in control until at least early February.   Next week or so will feature north/northeast/northwest winds at times, possibly clean AM sessions and series of west to northwest swells moving through our waters.   One of those is peaking today at 8-9ft at 14 seconds.  Afterwards, look for the swell to remain in the 5-7ft range with periods of 14-15 seconds through at least Monday.   Overall, nice break from all the rain and rogue conditions, enjoy it because when the Active Phase of the MJO heats up again in early February we'll probably see a run of stormy weather.  Cya in the water.

WHOA - CA BUOY - 33ft@17sec!

XXL large inbound swell train 350 miles out at CA Buoy.   Biggest reading this am was at 33ft!.   Swell will arrive later and continue through tomorrow.   Don't really see things cleaning up until maybe Sunday when winds turn more northwest and high pressure starts to build into the region giving us dry weather all of next week.   Until then - more rain today on and off (not as much wind) and then looks rainy off and on through the weekend.   Might be some knooks and crannies working if you know where to look.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - Plenty of swell and southeast winds

Happy New Year.   Stormy pattern setting back up for the foreseeable future.  We will have on and off rain events through at least the middle of next week and likely beyond.   Plenty of swell trains with mostly west swells through the period, biggest looks like Saturday and then again on Monday.   Winds are going to stay pretty consistent from the south/southeast/east depending on frontal passage - so some spots will remain clean, others not so much.   Plenty of options.   One note - Pt Arena buoy appears to have stopped transmitting overnight - not sure if this is temporary or it's come off its mooring.   Will monitor.   Cya in the water.

PLENTY OF SWELL ON TAP, CLEAN CONDITIONS

Old west/northwest swell fading out this am at 7ft 11 seconds, new swell loading up at far northern buoys - 9-10 ft at 20 seconds.   That swell will fill in all day and be solid by tomorrow morning.   Winds are offshore pretty much up and down the coast as high pressure rules the day.  No rain in sight through most of next week until the pattern breaks down potentially next weekend.  Until then, look for clean conditions especially for AM sessions with swell gradually fading by around next Wednesday.   Beach breaks should be pretty fun from Monday to Wednesday.   Cya in the water.

ANOTHER BIG WEST SWELL LOADING UP....

Hope you enjoyed the Winter Solstice.  Break between big swells today - deep water around 7.5-8 ft at 12 seconds from 300 plus.  Break will be short-lived as the Papa Buoy is already showing deep water swell at 19ft 14-15 seconds.   That will arrive tonight and be in full force tomorrow, along with a new round of rain showers lasting through Christmas.   On and off rain, wind, lots of swell.   There will be moments if you pick your windows wisely.  Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and cya in the water.  

WHOA! BIGGEST SWELL OF THE YEAR INBOUND THIS WEEKEND

As if it's not been big enough the past two weeks.....Large storm system with a dynamic fetch (means the winds are moving at a high speed in the same direction of an already created swell) all pushing east towards the West Coast - creating a huge swell event for Sunday night and Monday.   Satellite pass yesterday revealed seas in excess of 51ft and the storm was only 1500 miles from the Coast.  NOAA is predicting long period swell of 18-20ft (Bay Area), 20-23 ft (North Coast) with extremely long periods of 19-21 seconds.  Deepwater breaks like Mavericks and others will be in excess of 50ft on Monday.   We still have large swell until then, staying mostly above 10ft until Sunday night.   Storm door is open as well, quick moving storm today and tonight - break Saturday and then another quick moving system Sunday.  Winds don't look great - going to stay mostly south to southwest through Sunday night.   Might see light northwest winds for Monday (Bay Area), but winds on the far North Coast should remain west to southwest.  Monday should certainly be one to go and witness.  Be cautious and alert if you're near the beaches.   Cya in the water.

WEEKEND FORECAST

Long period swell continuing this morning at 8-9ft at 18 seconds from 300.   Still quite solid, but down a few notches from yesterday.  Picture is from the North Sonoma Coast as lines marched in.
Swell will continue to fade into tomorrow, but still be 6-8 at 15 seconds.   One more day of high pressure and then two new storm systems arriving affecting our weather until Monday.   The first one this evening will mainly affect the region north of Cape Mendo.   The second, Saturday night into Sunday should bring rains region wide - with lesser amounts south of Sonoma.  Winds will stay east to southeast today and southeast tomorrow.   South winds ramp up Saturday night through Sunday.   Swell will crank back up Sunday night through Monday - back in the 10-12 ft range (deepwater).  So no shortage of swell for the foreseeable future - just keep an eye on the winds.   Cya in the water.

BIG AND STORMY

Pt Arena Buoy is 16ft at 14 seconds this am.  Whoa.   Next in a series of storm systems knocking on the door which will bring rain, high winds and large surf.  Another large west swell lines up for later this week.   Storm door is open, south wind door is open, swell door is open.  Perhaps a good time to travel south to the safety of So Cal or Baja.   Cya in the water.  

THANKSGIVING WEEK FORECAST - ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN

This AM features offshore winds, cool temps and lingering northwest swell - 4-5 ft at 12-13 seconds. Today and part of tomorrow should be the last of the smoke filled days as our weather pattern finally shifts into something that looks like late autumn.   A series of Pacific weather systems will impact CA starting late Tuesday and lasting through at least Friday, perhaps longer for our northern areas through the weekend.   Southeast winds will be on the rise tomorrow and get stronger through about Wednesday night - transitioning over to southwest winds Thanksgiving Day and Friday.   Small west swell will continue and then build Wednesday with long period forerunners at 3-4 ft @18 seconds.  Thursday, west swell will be 8-11ft and 10-12ft on Friday (deep water heights).   Heaviest rain looks to be Wednesday (with mountain snow) - and then again late Thanksgiving Day into Friday.   Plenty of swell on tap - winds just look a bit dicey.   However, if you know your spots you might find some moments.   Happy Thanksgiving, cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - SOLID SWELL FOR MID/LATE WEEK

East winds continue to transport heavy smoke from the Camp fire in Paradise to the Bay Area and points north.   Small surf today, 2-3 ft - mix of southwest and northwest swells.   Look for swell to ramp up late Wednesday - probably overnight - and be quite solid for Thursday/Friday - with stand out winter breaks back in the double to triple overhead range.  Light winds should continue Wednesday, increase from the northwest on Thursday and then back off again Friday/Saturday.   This incoming swell will gradually fade through the weekend.   AM sessions should be pretty clean through the period - just check the winds later in the week.   For those looking for any sign of rain - long term models aren't really showing anything until Thanksgiving or beyond.   The good news is the blocking ridge of high pressure, which has been situated offshore for almost a month is forecast to move out and low pressure will take it's place.   How long and how much rain we will get - too early to know.   Models should have a better handle on that by early next week.   Until then, should be plenty of surf on tap.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - Good week for work

Not much to talk about this week.  High pressure is locked offshore around 135W.  Almost stationary and shunting storms to our north.   Strong northwest winds and junky short period windswell through the week.   No rain in sight which is not a good thing with November upon us.  Pattern might start to break down middle of the month - but nothing solid on the charts right now for swell or weather.  Cya in the water.

WEEKEND FORECAST & BEYOND - 10-26

Sorry for the break in reports - been surfing a ton and taking advantage of all the swell and good conditions this past month.   We have a pretty decent shot of northwest swell in the water today - deepwater is 8-9 ft at 13 seconds from around 300.   Local beaches are pretty walled, with fog and light winds.   Over the outer waters,  winds are strong from the northwest and pretty ugly.   High pressure is building in today and tomorrow before giving way to a weak system that will move in on Sunday but keep all rain towards the Oregon border.   Winds will probably shift south to southwest ahead of the front and then north to northwest behind it.   Look for the northwest swell to gradually fade but stick around through Sunday, then another northwest swell train will come in with deep water heights projected to be 6-10ft at 15 seconds.  Peaking Monday at 10-11ft.   That swell should stick around well into middle of next week.   Winds aren't looking ideal, however given the time of year we might see some offshore flow for the AM's only - but expect winds to pick up through the day as high pressure will be about and influencing our local wind and weather.   There will continue to be a fair amount of background southwest swell in the 2-3ft range - so it's not over down under yet.   Much of that will get lost in the northwest swell.   Plenty to ride, some spots should be decent.   Cya in the water.

SOLID SOUTHWEST, MORE SWELL ON THE WAY...

SW swell is 3.1 @18 this AM from 210.  Looking for this swell to hang around through Tuesday with light winds.  By midweek, models are growing more confident we will see a very solid west/northwest swell from around 280-300 deg.  Could be good for overhead to double overhead waves at top spots from Wed to Fri.   Winds could be favoring offshore AM sessions by this time as well.   Another solid southwest swell is forecast for around Oct 22-25.   All in all, pretty solid month of surf, as it should be in October.   Cya in the water.

SWELL FROM EVERYWHERE - WEEKEND FORECAST

Our first pulse of northwest swell is winding down this am - swell is 4-6ft at 12-13 seconds from 295.   Also have a small southwest swell in the water - 2-3 at 14 from 205.   We have swell inbound from N and S this weekend.   South swell from Hurricane Sergio and another Gulf Swell set to roll in Saturday.   Sergio swell should show Saturday at select breaks.  Models are forecasting deepwater heights of 3-5ft at 19sec for Saturday night.   This might be a bit overdone, but we will wait and see as the swell starts rolling up the Coast.   Swell will stay solid on Sunday, 3-4 at 18 seconds.  In fact, expect the Sergio swell to stick around until around next Tuesday.   As for the N Pac swell(s) - we're going to have a lot of wind starting Saturday and that will really ramp up the wind swell (and drop water temps again).   Peak of that event should be Saturday night into Sunday 8-11ft (offshore waters), smaller nearshore.   In addition we will have a longer period west/northwest swell from the remnants of Typhoon Trami which went extratropical this past week and will send in a longer period swell at 3-5ft at 19 deepwater 300-305 on Saturday.   Sunday period will be down to 18 seconds and 16 seconds on Monday.   Winds will be the issue over the weekend and into next week as an inside slider is dropping down the State over the weekend which will ramp up the north to northwest winds strongly starting Saturday night.   We could see some offshore winds by next week at certain spots along the Coast, so keep an eye on it.   However, with all the swell sources this weekend and beyond, there should be plenty of spots holding waves and rideable.  Cya in the water.  Yay Fall!  

HURRICANE ROSA, N PAC TO GET BUSY, S PAC STAYING BUSY....

Interesting pattern taking shape offshore tonight with some possible rain coming into our region tomorrow and then again Mon/Tues.   No gully washers mind you, just a little shot here and there.   In addition to the active weather, Hurricane Rosa is churning off Baja and moving slowly north/northwest through the weekend with a decent chance we will see some swell from that system by Sunday (Bay Area), Monday/Tuesday (points further north).   If one believes the models, could actually see deepwater swell from Rosa late Sunday going 3ft plus at 14 seconds from a very steep 165.   Monday, swell forecast to build to 5ft at 15sec also at 165 (quite solid if this materializes) and then fading Tuesday at 3-3.5ft at 13-14 seconds from 165.   Due to the angle of approach only the best south facing spots will pick this swell up and much will just radiate by the California Coast.   Also keeping an eye on two storms in the N Pac over the weekend to see if any swell materializes for next week and from the S Pac two storm systems in play for perhaps some swell late next week or early the following.   Winds look pretty light through about next Wednesday.  Fall is here.   Cya in the water.  

HAPPY FALL - WEEKEND UPDATE

Today is the first full day of fall.   Small southwest swell is in 1.9ft @17 from 195.   Quick check of conditions show light winds and fog everywhere.   Swell to stick around tomorrow and then fade out and then it's back to a windswell regime for the foreseeable future.   No swell of interest from the North Pacific forecast in the coming week.   Still waiting for the machine to kick in.   Long term odds look better for late Sept into the first week of October if one can believe the models this far out.  So get what you can and best conditions will probably be found early over the next week.  Cya in the water.

WEEKEND FORECAST/SEPT 14

New southwest swell in this morning at 2-3 ft @18 from175.  Winds are lighter from the northwest than they've been.   Look for south swell to continue for the next few days with no real clean up with the winds (or fall offshores) - so AM sessions will be best.   Still watching for our first northwest swell of the season - nothing yet.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - SEPT 6

Small southwest swell started rolling in yesterday and continues this AM.   2.2@15 from 190.   This swell will slowly fade out tomorrow.   Wind swell remains in the water as well - 3-5ft at 6-8 seconds from 300 +.   No swell producing storms forecast in the N Pac yet, but there is activity and things look to perhaps improve mid to late next week as a series of stronger fronts get traction.  In the meantime - we have a run of southwest swell coming for this weekend.   First forerunners will come in late Saturday, 1-2ft at 20-21 sec.   Sunday, swell builds to 2.8 at 18 sec and will hold at that duration through Monday.   Swell will begin a slow fade by next Tuesday with period down to 14-15 sec.   Swell direction will be around 170-180 - so a touch steep.   Wind and fog remain the issue with no offshore winds forecast at this time.   Keep an eye on the winds, AM sessions probably the best right now until we start getting some fronts through the Pac Northwest into the Great Basin giving us a bigger hint of fall.   Cya in the water.  

SEPTEMBER!

Welcome to the 2018/19 surf season in Northern California.   Made it through another summer.   Going to look like summer for a while yet as we have strong northwest winds, dropping water temps again and lots of wind swell.   Wind swell will get larger towards Sunday so some spots that can pull in that energy and keep you out of the wind might be the call.   Not many of those exist around these parts, but there are a few.   Don't see much let up in winds through early next week and no ground swell on the horizon yet from the North Pacific.   Could see a small south swell starting around Monday - but feel like it might get beat down and lost under the more dominant NW flow.   Some small background hurricane swell from Miriam and Norman could dribble in over the weekend as well at south facing spots - but don't expect much above waist high.   Cya in the water and i'll be back to more regular reports now that it's September!  

SMELLS LIKE FALL.....

Rambling thru the Russian River Valley this week and the local trees are showing color.   Ocean has been smooth from Salmon Creek and points north.   Sept 1 is almost here.   If you're like me, you love this time of year in Nor Cal.   Nothing on the horizon yet, just small northwest swell for the next couple days - 3-5ft at 11 seconds.   Northwest winds will start to ramp up towards the weekend - especially offshore and we'll see a batch of windswell with short periods develop.    AM sessions might be best for winds.   Keeping an eye on the N Pac - it's most definitely getting active in the higher latitudes, just need some troughs to drop down and get some traction over the open waters.   It's coming......cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - SOUTH SWELL ABOUT TO HIT!

Good looking southwest swell on the way up the coast tonight - already showing in So Cal at 3ft - 3.8ft at 18-20 seconds!  For us this one should peak around 3ft to 3.3 ft at 18 seconds overnight - be quite solid Friday at 3ft plus at 15 seconds, same on Saturday and begin a slow fade into Sunday at 2.9 ft at 14 seconds.   Direction about 180 degrees.   Swell will fade further Monday and be gone Tuesday.   Get some and cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST/MID AUGUST....Watching the N Pac

This morning we have tropical swell in the water from ex Hurricane John.   Swell is 2.5ft at 12 sec from around 170, pretty steep angle but it will get it to the right spots.   Also have a very small west swell in the water - about 1.5 ft at 11 sec from 190.  That west swell is from a Gulf of Alaska low that was spinning off the Pac Northwest this week and is now moving inland.  There is another southwest swell due in tomorrow late and that swell will probably max around around 2ft @ 14-17 sec from 200.   Also watching the remnants of Tropical Storm Shanshan - which is moving up and east of North Japan which is then forecast to continue racing east pushing over the Dateline over this weekend and might give us some small west to northwest background swell later next week.   That's a sign of fall when extratropical storms start to recurve and track east.   Will continue to monitor that corridor for activity.   Otherwise, watching the N Pac for early signs of the season.   Winds still aren't ideal and are forecast to ramp up again from the northwest this weekend - but there will be spots to ride and early mornings likely best.   Cya in the water.

AUGUST UPON US, SEPTEMBER INCHING CLOSER......

July comes to an end with wind and meager wind swell.   That should be the case for the rest of the week and then some as high pressure remains in control.   Could see an increase in the wind swell size by week's end, but don't look for much clean to ride.  Northwest winds are going to remain strong especially over the outer waters and points north.   Water temps have cooled off again as well. Might see some action from the south towards the middle part of August.   Hang in there as September is only a month away and the start to the fall surfing season.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - SOUTH PACIFIC GETS BUSY

Solid storms have been underway northeast of New Zealand & Central Pacific.   The first in a series of swells is due in this weekend - the New Zealand swell, 2-3ft at 16-17 seconds from about 213 degrees hits on Saturday.   The Central Pacific swell, which is bigger and more powerful, will begin to overrun that swell late day Saturday with long period forerunners in the 19-20 sec range from 195 plus.  On Sunday, we will see 2 ft at 19-20, jumping to 2.5 at 21 seconds on Monday as the second pulse of this swell takes over the first.   Next Tuesday looks very good - deepwater 3.5 ft and bigger at 18-19 seconds - all 191-200 degrees - a very favorable swell angle for Nor Cal breaks.   That swell will probably hold well into the middle of next week.   Until this Saturday, it's mostly windswell and a fair amount of wind over the outer waters - could see a few light wind moments near shore - but don't expect much.  It does look like the winds will back off some for the weekend which is great news with the inbound swell.   Always a good thing for south swells moving up and around Pt Conception not having to battle strong northwest winds which can degrade size.   So get some work done because we're going to have a good run of southern hemi!  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST/JULY 15

South swell continues this morning, most readings show swell around 2.4ft - 3 ft @14 seconds from 180.   Water temps have warmed over the past week with the lack of northwest winds - ranging 55-59 north to south.   Look for fairly light winds to continue today and probably tomorrow - then winds will start to ramp up again from mid week on.   After this run of south swells ends tomorrow we will be back to windswell for the next week.   So get what you can.   Cya in the water.  

HELLO FABIO/UPDATED FORECAST 7--6

Swell from Hurricane Fabio is showing strongly this am - but it's a very selective swell given the steep angle of approach (165-175).   However, buoys showing 4-5 ft at 13-14 seconds.   Winds are from the north/northwest already this am and will get stronger over the weekend.   Water temps have come up with the south winds - back in the 54-56 range.   Swell from Fabio will stick around through tomorrow and then fade - so get it while you can.   After this, it's back to windswell for next week.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST/6-27 AND WEEKEND....

Swell this morning is primarily mid size wind swell at 7-8ft at 9-11 seconds from a steep 320.   Winds in the Bay Area are south to southwest.   From Pt Reyes north, winds are blowing strongly over the outer waters from the north/northwest.   Water temps remain on the chilly side - low 50s.   For the rest of the week, north winds will be the rule especially north of Pt Reyes, getting back up to gale force over the weekend.   Large wind swell will be the main source of waves with a background southwest swell from New Zealand showing primarily Sat/Sun at select spots that will focus the energy, but mostly lost under the more dominant flow from the north.   S Pac has gone to sleep beyond this week and nothing active in the tropics right now.   Wind swell is going to be the primary source of waves for the foreseeable future - but at least we have that.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 6-16

Wind swell remains the primary source of surf through the weekend.   Deep water is running anywhere from 7-11ft at 9-11 seconds, bigger north of the Bay Area.   From around 320 deg.   We will have a southerly wind/fog surge on Sunday which will briefly reverse the relentless northwest winds, bringing a bout of south winds.   We do have a small south swell due in starting late Saturday lasting until about Tuesday - 1.7ft to 2.5ft at 16 seconds from around 203 degrees.   Minimal really, and much of this energy will likely get throttled once the northwest winds pick back up Sunday night.       Still, might find something to ride at south facing breaks.   Maybe a bit more hope in the long term from the South Pacific, as the storm cycle looks to continue/pick up southeast of New Zealand which is a favorable swell corridor for us and has been a decent producing region so far this year.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 6-8 - SOUTH SWELL FOR WEEKEND

South swell from a storm that developed from 6-1 to 6-4 in the Central South Pacific is moving towards CA and will begin to show late Saturday with early forerunners at 1.9ft at 20 sec from around 200 degrees.   Main push happens Sunday and Monday as the deep water is forecast to jump to 3ft at 18 sec.   Period will start to drop Monday (16-17 sec) into Tuesday, fade on Wednesday.   All in all, looks like a decent run.   Our coast will remain shredded by northwest winds through the next week so south facing spots will be the call.   Maybe a few moments early mornings at beach breaks that like souths, but many of those are north to west facing and will be impacted by winds.   Cold water will remain.   Something to ride at least it would appear if the swell comes in as forecast.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - JUNE 4TH

Wind, lots of wind from the northwest and chunky windswell is what we have this week.   Water temps are dropping (47! at Pt Arena, 50 at Bodega, 51 at SF).   No change expected through the week as the summer time Pacific High pressure ridge is established.  I  am watching a decent storm in the Southern Pacific near New Zealand.   Storm is to churn for the first part of this week while moving north some (always good for southern storms to be generating wind/fetch while moving in our direction).   Swell from this will probably be a week out - so middle of next week.   Will keep an eye on progress and update later in the week.   Until then - get what you can if you can.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST/MEMORIAL DAY

Primarily windswell today and for the week ahead as the South Pac is asleep again and no swell producing systems really present in the North Pac.   Winds are light nearshore this AM in the Bay Area - blowing harder from the northwest the further north you go.    High pressure in control until mid week when a weak system briefly breaks down the ridge which will allow the pressure gradient to relax some and winds will ease.   However, no real change in terms of waves.   Probably something to ride at the beach breaks.   Summer in Nor Cal.  Keep your expectations low and you'll find something to ride.   Cya in the water.

LARGER SW SWELL THIS COMING WEEK, LESS WIND...

Early Sunday features howling northwest winds down the entire coast of CA.  The worst batch is between Pt Reyes and Pt Arena.   Water temps responding accordingly now at 50 at SF Buoy and 49 most points further north.   Dominant energy is windswell with a fading southwest swell and small Gulf swell.  Eyes to the south for the coming week as a decent southwest swell train is moving north, courtesy of a very strong low pressure system near New Zealand a week back.   Forerunners Monday night - 2ft @21 sec.  Builds Tuesday pushing 3.3ft @18-19s by late afternoon.  Wednesday might be the thickest day at 3.8ft @17s with residual energy left for Thursday at 3.7@15-16sec.   Direction 185-195 degrees.  By mid week the pressure gradient should relax and winds will actually reverse south by Wednesday, very light south, so could have some decent conditions for the mornings in particular.   Get it while you can because there isn't anything yet forecast behind this swell.   The North Pacific has officially gone to sleep for the summer, but at least we're off to a decent start for the Southern Hemisphere.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 5-11/SOUTHWEST SWELLS NEXT WEEK

Better run of southwest swells looks to start next week and continue for a while as storm activity in the South Pacific region has picked up over the past week.   Until then, we're going to get a serious dose of northwest winds over the next 36 hours - gale force to storm force far north, a touch less around the Bay Area.   We do have a mid period northwest swell in the water and large short period windswell from the ongoing winds in the outer waters.   The windswell is 10ft plus at 11 seconds from 320.   The smaller northwest is running 4-5ft at 12 seconds but likely undetected due to the more dominant windswell.   Due to all the wind and the wind forecast - water temps are dropping fast due to the upwelling.   SF Buoy around 49.  Pt Arena Buoy at 48!   Winds will blow strong until we get a southerly surge Sunday, when direction will shift to the south at about 5-15kts.   First southwest swell forerunners will likely show up late Sunday/Monday - 2-3 ft at 17 from 190.   Second swell will follow during the week with a better angle 213-220 also around 3ft at 18 sec.   That swell should continue through next Thursday.  North Pacific is going to sleep for the summer - jet stream is retreating to the north and North Pacific High is asserting it's dominance.   La Nina is about gone and hopefully this will equal a more favorable configuration for storm production in the Pacific next Fall.  Finally, have board bags, leashes, fins and a few wetsuits available at my garage sale this weekend (see post below) both boards were sold this week and no longer available.   Cya in the water.

WASABI GARAGE SALE/UPDATED FORECAST

Mothers Day Weekend we're having a garage/moving sale at 102 Redwood Drive, Woodacre, CA.   For surfers, board bags, some wetsuits, gear, couple boards for sale:  9.6 Ashley Lloyd log and a 7.4 Mitsven single fin.   Bunch of backpacks, clothes etc.   For the mom's and girlfriends, plenty of home stuff.  Starts next Friday May 11th (10am) and runs Saturday, Sunday both days 9-5pm.

Now for the forecast - well, it's May.   Actually the winds don't look horrible the next five days - just not much swell around from either the north or south.   Basically looking for small windswell through the period - at around 4ft 10 seconds.   Might be an uptick in winds mid week - but check it each AM - beach breaks will probably be biggest and early morning sessions might provide a few opportunities.

I'm moving to the far north coast early June - however I  will continue my forecast updates for the region.   Cya in the water.

NOW IT'S SPRING, UPDATED FORECAST 4-21

That should be a wrap on the rain for the season.   High pressure beginning to take control and the jet stream is retreating to the north.   Still some lows spinning out in the N Pac, so we're not done with winter swells just yet - but they're becoming smaller and less frequent which is normal.   Today we have a mix of swells in the water.    Northwest Gulf swell is showing at 6-8 ft from 13-14 seconds from around 300deg. The bigger swell north of Bodega Bay.   Windswell in the water, 4-5 ft at 7-9 seconds.   Small south swell is building - 1.4 ft at 14 sec from 205.  Winds are already blowing northwest over the outer waters. bit lighter for the moment near shore - but it's not very clean unless you go to breaks out of the wind.  Look for winds to continue through about Tuesday when the high pressure pattern relaxes some and a weak low pressure system passes to our north.   This will actually turn winds light south about Wednesday - so those two days next week - Tues/Wed - might be the cleanest coming up - but mostly in the AM.  South swell forecast to build, however think most of the energy will get lost in the more dominant northwest swells and the northwest wind offshore will shred the size some as it makes it way around Pt Conception.   Places that pick up the south and work well on northwest winds might have some fun waves.  Moderate period/size northwest swell to continue through about mid week.   South swell will be gone then as well.   La Nina is fading fast so that's a wrap on her - unlikely to return for a third winter next year.   It will be interesting what pattern sets up for the coming year and into the next season.   Cya in the water.

BACK TO WINTER/UPDATED FORECAST

Potent storm system just offshore today - will arrive overnight and bring rain through Saturday.   South winds will ramp up and stay elevated.   There is a nice southwest swell in the water today - about 2-3ft at 15-17 seconds.   That will hang around through tomorrow and then fade out into Saturday.   Meanwhile, larger northwest swell will build in, actually probably more west than northwest.   Friday look for that swell to be around 7ft @11 seconds, building Saturday to 9-12ft and Sunday a touch bigger 10-12ft.  Period will stay 11-12 seconds as it's coming from this storm as it nears the CA/OR/WA coasts.   I don't see an improvement in winds until Monday.  That said, plenty of swell on tap, rain and wind - but there are nooks and crannies up and down the coast that will hold waves.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - LOOKS LIKE SPRING....

One more series of storms to get through this weekend then high pressure takes over with northwest winds forecast - we all know what that means.   For the next couple days, swell looks to build into the 8-10 ft range, with 12 second periods and increase a bit in size and period Sat/Sun.   SW winds today turning W overnight turning to light NW Saturday morning and then stronger NW beyond.  Swell will begin to fade Sunday night and then next week it just looks like your garden variety northwest windswell with winds.   Nothing on the southern hemi charts yet down under, however the models are hinting a possible large storm forming middle of next week - so that might give us some action two weeks out.   Get what you can this weekend because it's slim pickings beyond.   Cya in the water.

MARCH!

March.   Traditional end of our winter season and the beginning of northwest winds and cold water.   Well we've had the cold water for 2-3 weeks now - winds actually not that bad right now and the forecast for this week isn't the worst i've seen for the start to March.   We have another storm system out in the Pacific which is due to come ashore Wednesday through Friday (earlier far north).   High pressure is getting pumped up today and tomorrow in advance of that front with northeast to east winds forecast due to the direction of wind flow.   By Tuesday night - south winds will ramp up and will remain strong through Wednesday, easing some Thursday (but still southwest) and then light west by Friday.   Swell looks to remain fairly mid size through the week - 4-6ft 12-15 second periods.    Pattern looks to remain active as go through Mid March - so perhaps we will see some decent swells and variable wind.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 2-24/NW WIND SHRED FEST/COLD WATER

It's almost March, but with La Nina raging - feels and looks like Spring.   Water temps continue to drop with the onslaught of northwest winds - 49f at SF 47.7 at Pt Arena.   It's cold.   Air temps remain cold as we're locked in a trough pattern with systems sweeping down from BC.  Slight chance of rain far north today - better chance of rain everywhere by Monday and finally some decent precipitation forecast for late next week as the Polar Low over Hudson Bay has moved East (this has been the blocker for the past month or so) which will allow more moderate Pacific air and storms to finally come ashore.   Probably too late to make up any real deficit at this point - as most of CA is only 50% or below of average - but we will take what we get.   Surf wise - there is a west swell running - about 6ft at 15 sec - but the problem is it's getting trashed by the northwest winds and windswell running down the coast - which is about 100miles wide from the coast offshore.  So you might see some bigger pulses now and then if you're surfing at a south facing break today - but it's getting lost under the more dominant windswell energy.   NO let up in winds through next week - swell will remain fairly moderate - probably 6-9ft.   March 1st is the end of the traditional "good" surf season up here - but will start keeping an eye on the southern hemisphere for some early season action.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 2-15

Storm track remains split in the far West Pacific and as such, we have no really strong systems out there that can produce meaningful swell.   Modest pulses this week.   We should see an upturn in energy starting Friday night into Saturday as a new longer period swell arrives - peaking Saturday at 7ft 17seconds.   North and west facing breaks will have decent size.   Winds over the outer waters are suppose to remain elevated - north to northwest - nearshore - could be times in the early mornings with light wind to sideshore/offshore - best bet to check it - wind forecast remains highly variable at the moment.   High pressure remains in control - we are really falling behind now with rainfall totals statewide with no real relief in sight.   Next week a very cold weather system is forecast to drop right out of Canada over CA and usher in the coolest temps we've seen in a long time - but very little moisture.   Long term models show some signs of hope for the persistent ridge to finally break down by the end of Feb - but i'm not sure that's going to happen.   March 1 looms, the traditional end to the "good" wave riding season in Nor Cal - ugh - and we could be in for a very windy spring.   That means very cold water temps too.   Cya in the water!

UPDATED FORECAST 2-8

It's not looking that great for the weekend and week ahead.   High pressure remains in control pushing rain and swell producing storms up and to the north.   Small west swells have been running in all week - 2-3 ft at 11-12 - hardly the stuff of winter around these parts.  Northwest winds will start to really pick up Friday and look to blow through the weekend - perhaps a touch side shore to offshore in certain zones - but with all that wind blowing north of Pt Reyes - it should be a mess.   Water temps, already on the cool side far north - should really tumble.   Maybe the windswell will get big enough late weekend to get some waves at the south facing breaks.  Might see an uptick of longer period swells mid next week - but until then, take what you can find/get.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 1-27

Our run of large surf has come to an end for a while -- storm track is retreating to the north with high pressure to build in bringing dry weather for the next 7-10 days.   Winds should be light from the north perhaps offshore starting tomorrow and lasting at least until Monday.   Then we might see an uptick in northwest winds as high pressure strengthens mid week.   Lingering swell today - 7-8ft at 11-12 seconds - will hold through Sunday and then drop to 4-5ft for Monday.    Swell will pick back up some mid week - but staying in the 6-8ft range most areas.   So after a pretty wet January - looks like the first week or two of February could remain dry.   Could be some good beach break days ahead - cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - WHOA, 21 @18 FROM 295!

Largest swell of the season is roaring ashore this morning.   Buoys are ranging from 21-24ft with super long periods 17-21 seconds.  Not for the faint of heart.    XXL swell should continue right into the weekend - mortal heights probably heading back into the zone Sunday but still quite large for west and north facing beaches.   Winds don't look great until Monday fluctuating between south to southwest to northwest as a series of storms come ashore and pass to the east.   Perhaps some lighter northwest winds Monday.    Not seeing a break in the pattern until late next week when high pressure may return giving us an extended period of calmer weather.   Until then, large surf with highly variable winds the rule.   Cya in the water.

What was that phrase from the Godfather......

Just when i  thought i  was out they pulled me back in......?   My last post saying i  was taking a winter break generated a lot of emails.   Want to thank everyone for their thoughts and it also made me realize that the blog for many is important as are the reports.   So i'll do my best to keep the reports and not leave anyone hanging!  

With that in mind - let me update everyone on what is happening and coming - because we do have some pretty significant swell trains inbound.   First off, large northwest swell that rolled in the past two days is winding down this am - but still quite solid - 8-9ft at 15 seconds far north - a bit smaller towards OB and Santa Cruz (7-8ft at 15 from 300).   We have two days of decent winds, especially mornings and the next very solid swell will start showing tonight - and by Sunday morning be impacting the north and central coast with forerunners in the 8-10ft at 21-22 second range.   Quite solid with the long period.   Swell will likely increase on Monday - deepwater 13-14 ft and 16-19ft in spots 18-19 second period.  Very powerful and large.   Storm track gets active again Monday, North Bay first and rain spreading into the Bay Area Tuesday.   Another break Wednesday before another storm comes ashore Thursday into Friday.   Weather models hint at yet another system next weekend.   So after a long dry December with minimal swell - January is taking us in the opposite direction with weather and waves.   Winds Sunday will start to veer southeast ahead of the next system and pretty much stay south to southwest the remainder of the week.   So today and tomorrow (if you like the big stuff) will be the call.    Thanks again for all the support and i'll do my best to continue reports each week into the year ahead.   Cheers and cya in the water.  

Happy New Year!

Happy New Year!  Wasabi is going to be taking a winter break from the forecast for the remainder of the season so I won't be updating for a while.   Work,  combined with the fact that I'm not around this area much anymore (more time spent far Nor Cal) - need to focus on some other things.    Please continue to use the links and the site and I  may resume updating the forecast later in the year or when I  have more time on my hands.   Thanks to everyone for being loyal followers of this blog.   Cya in the water!

UPDATED FORECAST - 12-26

Light winds and moderate northwest to west swell should continue Christmas week.   Buoys right now are 6-7 ft at 13 from 295 plus.   Reinforcing shot of west swell rolls in starting tomorrow and Thursday -that should take surf heights back up some to 6-7ft at 15 seconds.   Slow fade into the weekend.   The persistent ridge blocking all storms from the west coast as well as shunting a lot of swell producing storms way up into the Gulf of AK is showing signs of breaking down.   If you read the NOAA forecasts on this page you will see that we're starting to see signs of things changing around the first week in January.   Hopefully that comes to pass and we will start getting some rain - which is also good for many local beaches and spots along the Central CA Coast during the winter - opening up river mouths, sandbars and other locations.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-17

On track for one of the driest Decembers on record.   Small storm system due to drop in Tues/Wed time frame but don't expect much rain south of SF and very light amounts.   High pressure will regain control right after.   North winds blowing 15-25kts with gusts to 30 - northwest swell is 7ft at 12 seconds.   Look for winds to gradually wind down tomorrow - swell to range 6-10ft at 12 seconds.   Winds remain light until Wed when northwest winds ramp up behind front passage.   Swell to range 6-9ft through Thursday.   Long term weather models suggest a wet pattern might take shape from the end of Dec thru Jan 13th - by then we will really need some weather around here.   If the pattern doesn't show more promise in January we could be in for a very dry winter which wont bode well for CA.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-2

December.   Large back to back northwest swells have been rolling in.   Swell is down a tad from the past two days but still 10-12ft at 15-17 seconds this am.   Quite solid.   Winds are generally light and variable with a bit of an offshore component in some spots.   Solid swell looks to stick around at least through Monday - decreasing by a foot or so each day while the period drops.   Chance of rain from Marin north tonight into Sunday, then we're high and dry for the remainder of the week as a more continental airmass will arrive from the north giving us some very cold nights during the first part of the week, moderating some from mid week on.   North winds will pick up early in the week, then turn light to offshore from about Wednesday on.  So it could be a nice run of days once we get through this weather.   Keep an eye on the winds, plenty of surf on tap.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 11-25

Hope you had a good Thanksgiving.   Early this morning winds are fairly light and northwest swell is 5.9 at 12 sec from 310.  Look for light winds today and a good part of Saturday before the next series of storms takes aim at Central/Northern CA.   In addition, building northwest swell Saturday night - 4-6 ft at 19 seconds, will build even more on Sunday at 10-13ft at 17 sec, and Monday jumping up to 13-15 ft at 14-15 sec.   Strong south winds will ramp up Saturday night and blow all day Sunday, switching to southwest direction at 20-30kts.   Winds will shift to the northwest on Monday behind the front and blow fairly strong at 20-30kts.   Rain on and off from Saturday night into Monday.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - 11-11

Super fun late season south/southwest swell hitting our shores - 3.2 at 15 sec @190.  North Pac swell is 4ft at 10 sec from 305.   Look for this south swell to stick around through Monday night - staying in that deepwater zone of 3ft as period drops.   Northwest swell will stay small (ideal for not harassing the vibe of the south) - at least thru Sunday - then the northwest will jump up to around 8ft at 12 seconds on Monday night.   Most likely to remain elevated through next Thursday as as series of Pacific storms come ashore - first one late Sunday, another mid week and then another next weekend.   Winds will fluctuate between south as front come onshore and west to northwest as they pass.   So, plenty of swell - just check the winds and know your spots and you'll find good waves. Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 11-6/STORMY PATTERN

We are in between systems today and tomorrow while a large low pressure system is dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska, due to hit us starting Wednesday and Thursday.   This will bring a period of very strong south turning west winds, larger southwest storm swell.   In the meantime, smaller west swell

around today and Tuesday - deepwater 4-6 ft at 14 seconds, with fairly light north winds forecast at 5-15kts.   After the mid week storm, winds and swell should decline as we head into Friday.    Unsettled pattern looks to continue on and off through next weekend as the Pacific is active for early November.   Keep an eye on the winds and you'll find some good windows for surf.   Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST - 10-26

Powerful new NW/WNW swell will plow into N Cal late Friday into the weekend from an intense storm and remnants of Typhoon Lan that cranked out huge surf near the Aleutians for the past 36 hours or so.  Probably see some forerunners very late Friday in far Nor Cal - game on everywhere else by Saturday morning - showing biggest late afternoon and evening Saturday.   Probably looking for double and triple overhead sets by dark on Saturday and possibly larger and best north/northwest facing breaks.  Swell will peak Sunday morning with continuing double to triple overhead surf. Swell direction about 290-310.   Decent southwest swell will roll in at the same time from 205 to 220 - good for chest to head high sets at south facing breaks but mostly lost under the more dominant northwest swell.   Looking for pretty ideal winds the next few says - especially for AM sessions with no wind or light offshore wind.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - OCT 14TH - LARGE NW LATE WEEK

Light winds continue through mid week with small north/northwest swell along with an incoming southwest swell starting Tuesday.  Then our first large northwest swell of the season comes in (along with weather) - starting Thursday.  

Breaking things down like this:
Today - light north winds most of the day - deepwater swell about 3-4ft at 9-10 sec
Tues - NW winds 10kts - deepwater swell 4-5 at 10-12 and new south showing 3ft @18 sec
Wed - NW winds 10kt - deepwater swell from northwest about 5ft at 13 and south 3ft at 18.
Thursday - southwest winds, chance of rain - winds 10-20kts - deepwater 9-12ft from northwest.
Friday - NW winds 10-20 kts - northwest swell 13-16ft.
Northwest swell will begin a slow fade into and through next weekend.   Good chance of rain Thursday into Friday - for sure the North Bay will get a decent hit which will help the fires and lesser amounts Bay Area south.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - OCT 10TH

Decent run of surf should continue through the weekend.   Current NW swell is easing out today but still good for head to overhead waves at northwest facing breaks today.   A new mid period NW swell will show mid week - pushing surf back up to overhead range at NW facing breaks.   Meanwhile, southwest swell trains look to continue towards the weekend with a fun size SW (200-220) from the 13th to 15th and then another pulse for the 17th to 19th.   North to northwest winds will increase again mid week and last through the weekend - strongest over the outer waters and far north.   Around the Bay Area these winds could take a more NE or offshore component some mornings.   The increase in winds will not help all the wildfires burning around Northern California.    We could use some rain to help firefighters and nothing really on the horizon for the next 7-10 days.   Cya in the water.  

OCTOBER

Calendar says Oct 1, but the conditions look a bit more like late April or May.   Strong, gale force winds are blowing down the coast from Cape Mendocino south, making a general mess of everything.  Short period windswell the rule and that looks to continue into the week.   I'm not seeing much hope for anything until next Friday (forerunners Thursday) when a steep angled south swell comes in from down under.   This swell is the result of a strong storm last week and should have some decent size (deepwater 3-4 ft with long periods), but the angle of approach might limit it's solid impacts 190-195 degrees.   However, south facing spots should have size and if all goes as forecast this could be a pretty solid swell event.    No major swells of interest from the North Pacific forecast, however we could see some energy middle of the following week - as things remain fairly active in the Gulf, but most of the energy has been pushing into BC.   Winds might get lighter towards Thursday of next week which would limit it's shredding impacts on the incoming south swell train up the coast.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - SEP 25

Fall conditions to start the week with light to offshore winds and small windswell in the water - 2-4ft from 315-320.   We will see in increase in short to mid period west/northwest swell/windswell starting Tuesday lasting through Thursday - deepwater heights about 2-5ft thru that period.   Steep approach at 310, periods 9-11 seconds.   Beyond that - no swell expected into the weekend and beyond.   Just windswell if we're lucky.   N Pac is not fully online yet as we really wait for the pattern to set up and more frequent swell producing storms develop.   On the upside, winds look relatively light most of the week, at least until Thursday.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST SEP 18/SOLID SWELL IN THE WATER

Buoys in the Gulf of Alaska reporting swell of 17-22ft at 14 seconds this morning depending on location.   That's our swell in the water heading this way.   Surf will be on the rise Tuesday far north and Bay Area overnight - then quite solid for Wednesday & Thursday when deep water heights will be in the 8-12ft/Wed, 6-10ft/Thurs range - from 305-320.    Look for decent size to hang around through Friday.   Early season storms hitting WA, OR and far Nor Cal, will actually bring a chance of rain as far south as Sonoma County tomorrow and then exit the region mid week - leaving us with northwest winds behind the fronts.   Winds will be the issue the next few days, no real clean conditions but best bet will most likely be for the AM sessions.   Winds might lighten up a bit towards the end of the week.   With regards to buoys, the CA Buoy remains adrift but still reporting.  The Papa Buoy is no longer reporting wave heights.   Oregon Buoy, Mendo Buoy and Pt Arena Buoy best window to incoming swell trains.   I've also added the Stormsurf/Gulf of Alaska Buoy link which gives you a good look at swell much further out.   No idea when these broken or out of commission buoys will be retrieved and redeployed.   With the Useless Idiot in the Whitehouse trying to cut NOAA programs as well as claiming climate change is a hoax, might be a while before we get operational buoys again......cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST/SEP 14/First large NW swell next week

Northwest winds are blowing hard over outer waters - fading, meager sw swell still around but limping out of here tonight as another equally impotent s/se swell moves in or misses the Coast entirely.   Windswell will be the rule through the weekend - and wind.   Things look to improve by Tuesday/Wednesday when a longer period, northwest swell, a real swell, moves into the region.   More on that by Monday - storm has not come together yet in the N Pac, but models are forecasting deepwater heights in the 8-12ft range during that period.   So it should have some size and power.   Until then, get what you can.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST SEPT 7TH

Long period forerunners will come in overnight from an extra tropical storm that developed last weekend.    Look for deepwater 4-5ft at 19 sec tonight into the morning.   Period will drop to 18 sec then 16 sec by Saturday afternoon.   Decent size through the weekend.  Could be a bit lully at times, these longer period extra trop swells tend to come from far away and this one is no different.   Swell direction plus 290 degrees.  Meanwhile, mid period Gulf swell is fading out today - 4-5 at 12-13 seconds.   This one came in smaller than forecast and inconsistent as well.   Winds are still south to southwest today - which kick over to light north overnight into tomorrow.   Then stronger northwest wind for the weekend.   Long term into September looking pretty promising and active in the N Pac.  Cya in the water.  

SEPTEMBER 4TH/UPDATED FORECAST

Nice SSW swell peaks today - long period swell is 2.7 at 15 from 185 plus.   Swell fades tomorrow and then we have our first fall swell due to arrive Wed/Thurs.  That swell from 290-305 will be good for overhead surf at winter breaks, smaller at south facing breaks.   Western Typhoon Sanvu is the next system behind this one - that will generate swell after recurving in the Pacific, for around the 13th - 15th.   I'll dial in that swell later in the week.   As for winds, southeast to south winds first part of the week due in part to the upper level pattern and remnants of former Mexico TS Lidia which is moving overhead this morning bringing increasing clouds and a chance of thunderstorms.   Once Lidia moves out - winds might switch briefly to west then northwest late in the week.   No huge northwest wind blow in the forecast, just highly variable.   Morning sessions might be best bet.   Plenty of swell on tap this week - certainly looking like September.   Cya in the water.  

SEPTEMBER 1!!!

Welcome to the 2017/2018 season.   You made it through another summer, a particularly lousy summer for surf around these parts.    Extremely hot conditions exist today and will stick around over the weekend.   As such, high pressure has crushed the marine layer leaving us with fairly light winds today and through the weekend.  Perhaps an afternoon sea breeze each day.   Not much swell to talk about - small windswell and a fading steep angle south swell which didn't make much noise the past few days.  Look for a better angled sw swell (200-210) to move in around Sunday afternoon - maybe chest high sets at best by Monday/Tuesday.   Our first swell from the N Pac looks to head in here around Sept 6-7 - as models forecasting a storm to develop in the next couple days.   That swell, from around 300 will be good for head/overhead surf, possibly larger at times.   Behind that, another swell is forecast for Sept 8-10.   I'll be watching those lows develop this weekend and update late weekend or Monday.   Good sign however, with some solid surf (finally) on the way.   Cya in water.
***CA BUOY is adrift but still reporting.   No idea when they will get it back to it's original position.

UPDATED FORECAST 8-22

There is a small touch of hurricane swell showing from Kenneth tonight - running around 2-3ft at 12-13 secs from 220.   Just building and will be in the water tomorrow into Thursday, possibly some left overs into Friday am.   Winds were light most of the day - starting to pick up from the northwest tonight.   NW winds will pick up the rest of the week - hard to say if they will mix in right along the coast - good chance AM sessions might be ok - but expect winds for the PM sessions.   High pressure is setting up shop and it all depends on the location of the high.   Seas will build offshore the rest of the week in response to the winds, so nearshore wind swell will increase as well.   No long period swells from the south or north forecast for at least the next seven days or so.   September is almost here.  I am keeping an eye on the N Pac for some signs of life and the first swells of fall.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - AUG 13

Poor surf and conditions look to continue, some swell on the horizon from the south and southwest late next week and into the following.   Until then, not much to talk about other than short period windswell, fog and onshore winds.   I'd look for an increase of swells from the south around Aug 18-21.  Watching the N Pac for signs of life as we get closer to September.   Hang in there.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 7-28 - ACTIVE TROPICS ** New forecast links

Just need to get through the next couple days and then we should start seeing some swell from tropical systems to our south as well as southwest swell from way Down Under.   Tropical Storm Irwin and Hurricane Hilary are both about 900-1000 miles off Cabo.   Irwin is not going to be a swell producer, in fact will get sucked up into Hilary over the next few days and orbit each other in a rare event called a Fujiwhara interaction.   Swell from Hilary should start to show Sunday 7-30 at 3-4ft deepwater at 13 seconds (maybe longer period forerunners of 17-18 sec before) and peak Monday 7-31 with deepwater swell at 4ft 13 seconds.   Very steep angle at 165 - so it's going to miss a lot of our coast as it comes in.  At the same time two longer period fetches from the south will arrive - both will max out at about 2-3 ft 15-18 seconds but a better swell direction with both of these events at 175-180 - which is still rather "south" for our area.   Winds are going to be an issue as the northwest wind machine will be ramping up with the normal Pacific high pressure/thermal low pressure inland deal that is so common up here during the summer and has been quite persistent this summer.   There is a West Pacific Hurricane called Noru that has brought surf to Kauai today and tomorrow - an early sign of things changing as we move towards August.   Redwoods are also starting to get some brown brambles which is also a good indicator.   One more month to go until Sept 1 and right on cue - the patterns out there - both on land and in the ocean are following suit.
Note - i've added two links in the forecast section.   CDIP All Pac Buoy link gives you a look at deepwater swell around the Pacific Basic and even points beyond.   Stormsurf/Quik/CAST - these guys are the best in my mind at predicting weather, swell, wind and everything else as it applies to surfing on our coast or anywhere for that matter.   This is a summary page for Nor Cal - I've used for years when i want a quick look at what is going on.

UPDATED FORECAST - 7-20

It's pretty ugly friends.   No swell from the south to speak of - dribble from the northwest and day after day of winds.   Water is cold too.   Looks to stay this way for the remainder of the month up here - a few background pulses of south now and then.   Things might improve as we start August - but that's way out there.   Best bet is to travel south - anywhere but here.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - JULY 8TH

Long period forerunners tonight of a series of south swells due for the region.  Deep water swell is 1.3ft at 18 from a steep 175.  Swell looks to be around all next week - with deep water heights around 3ft - forecast to increase Wednesday and Thursday 3-5ft.   So it should be a pretty good run of south swell.   Winds - you know the deal - it's July - northwest winds will be the norm - lightest morning and late afternoon/early evening.   Spots protected from the northwest winds will be best and those spots tend to be south facing and will pick up all the swell.   Cya in the water.

JULY 4TH WEEKEND

Good weekend to mountain bike, play golf, travel to Mexico for waves etc....It's not really happening around here.   The good news?  It's July - we're closer to September 1, and perhaps we might be closer to some decent waves at some point in the near future.   There is a chance we may see a good run of southwest swell starting around the 7th, lasting through next weekend - with lighter winds forecast starting tomorrow.   Don't expect epic non wind conditions mind you, but better than it's been.   Until then - get what you can or do something else.   On another note - i've added another link in the forecast section of the blog - NOAA Pacific Viewer - this will give you the global view of significant wave height in both the N Pac and S Pac.   Enjoy.   Cya in the water.  

END OF JUNE - UPDATED FORECAST

Had a pretty nice run of south swell since late last week.  That event is winding down with some left overs today at 2ft @14 from 190.   Northwest winds will be on the rise and stay elevated through the weekend.  North windswell will develop and be largest north of the Bay.   Background southwest swells will come in through the end of the week - waist to maybe shoulder high at the best summer breaks.   Spots protected from the northwest wind will be the call all week long and into the holiday.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - JUNE 19

Not much change anticipated over the coming week, but we will see some pulses of back to back small southwest swells in the water, with the first one slated to arrive late today, followed by two others throughout the period.   Nothing epic mind you, small, probably waist to chest high at times at the best facing south breaks.   Windswell will continue and winds will ramp up to near gale force again as the week goes, with high pressure in the Pacific interacting with low pressure over land.   Know your spots and you'll probably find something to ride - keep your expectations in check.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST JUNE 5

North winds all weekend have dropped water temps back to 49.   Unorganized windswell in the water - 7-10ft depending on location.   Southwest swell continues through Thursday this week, but really only showing a south facing spots protected from the winds.  We have a solid chance of rain coming this week - unseasonable for June - Thursday into Friday.   Look for the most rain Sonoma County and points north as a fairly strong late season storm comes ashore.   The official end of the rainy season is June 30 with new season starting July 1, so it is quite rare to get an organized system this late into the year.   Take what you can get this week, waves round to ride if you know where to look.   Cya in the water.

Few Boards for Sale.....

If anyone is interested, selling a couple boards:
6.6 Hypto Crypto with fins - $250.00 - thruster, round pin - great condition.
6.6 Fowler Fountain of Youth with fins - $250.00 - squash tail, thruster, great board to gravel in small waves and goes solid in bigger surf.   Also in great condition.
email me at bnovick@me.com

UPDATED FORECAST 5-16

You'll notice my reports getting a bit stretched out.  It's spring in Nor Cal - so not much to report.   Winds are blowing from the west/northwest and a storm system is diving down from BC that will bring rain to far northwest CA and maybe some showers are far south as Sonoma/Marin late today.   Windswell is our primary source of waves and looks to stay that way through the week.  Looking ahead we might see a better run of south swells as we start the month of June.   Until then, get what you can when you have an opportunity.   Should be enough windswell around to get wet somewhere. Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 5-8

As noted this morning by the SF NOAA forecaster - Bodega Buoy reporting water temp of 47 degrees (almost hit 46) - coldest since June of 2013.  All the wind over the past weekend has the upwelling machine in full motion.   Nothing that exciting on tap this week - mid range windswell and northwest swell thru the period - winds will continue to blow over the outer and northern waters all week - lightest day looks Thursday - nearshore winds harder to forecast so might be worth a look through the week.  Could also be a good week to get some work done too.   Cya in the water.

MAY 1 - UPDATED FORECAST

Northwest winds continue to blow over outer waters this am - but near shore, winds are light and variable.   This has been the pattern the past few days.   Forecast calls for very warm temps and offshore winds mid week - with those winds making it to the coast - will see if that materializes.  We have a small southwest swell in the water today (1.6 at 18 sec) and north windswell continuing.  The evolution this week of waves and weather goes like this:   new pulse of southwest swell fills in Thursday and peaks Friday.   Deepwater swell is forecast at 3ft from 195-200.   At the same time, a storm system in the Gulf of Alaska is going to develop and kick up a northwest swell event which by Friday is forecast to be running 8-10ft.    There will be slight chance of showers late in the week into the weekend, and northwest winds will pick up strongly after that low pressure system ejects off to the east.    Winds are going to be highly variable all week - so check it.   Should be something to ride each day at the right spots.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - END OF APRIL

It would appear that the record breaking winter of 2017 is finally over, high pressure, specifically the spring/summer East Pacific High Pressure ridge has arrived and should keep the storm track well to the north for extended period.   Could still see a chance of rain during the month of May, but climatology doesn't favor much.   Along with the high, north to northwest winds have been blowing the past few days and will continue to do so - especially over the outer waters and far northern waters.   As a result, SST's (water temps) have dropped to 50 at Bodega Buoy and 49 at San Francisco Buoy.   So if you like cold water and junky windswell this weekend is certainly your time to hit it.   Pretty much look for winds and short period windswell through next week.   Windwell will be 7-10ft at 8, 9,10 seconds.   Good times.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 4-22, SOUTHWEST SWELL

SW swell in the water this am - 3-4ft at 17-18 seconds from 195.   Small north swell continues as well.   Winds are generally east or non existent as a weak front is moving through Northwest CA - actually bringing rain north of Jenner at present.   Crazy swing from the great day yesterday.  Winds will most likely pick up behind the front tonight and tomorrow and west swell will increase back to 9-10 ft at 14 seconds and that swell will pretty much hold through Monday, back off some Tuesday and then increase again on Wednesday as the Pacific remains very active for this late in the season with more rain forecast on Monday/Tuesday - heavy rain in fact far north, with much less around the Bay Area.   Southern Hemisphere season has started at this point and is also pretty active.   The current sw swell will probably be lost in the more dominant energy tomorrow, however spots that like swells from that direction will be fun.   Check the winds - plenty to ride for the coming week.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - EASTER WEEKEND

With this past week's storms Nor Cal just broke the all time wettest season on record surpassing 1982-83 (which was a strong El Nino event).   The eight station recording index now shows a cumulative total of over 90 inches of rain for the year.   Surf wise, not bad to start today, winds are light northeast and surf is overhead at west/north facing breaks.   North swell is 5-7ft at 10 sec, very small background SSW swell in the water too - but mostly lost under the northern energy.   There is a new northwest swell filling in today - deepwater should stay in the 6-7ft at 14 sec range.  Winds will turn south overnight as the first in a series of weaker storm systems comes ashore bringing more rain. Easter Sunday should feature south winds - swell 4-6ft at 15 with rain becoming likely during the day.  Two more systems slated to come through until next Wednesday, then high pressure will build once again.   Winds don't look that heavy for the first part of the week - fluctuating between south and west as systems come and go.   Check the winds and you'll probably find a spot to ride.   Swell will stay in the small to medium size range through the period.  Cya in the water.

JANUARY IN APRIL - UPDATED FORECAST

More rain today as another short wave pinwheels at the bottom of a low pressure trough located in the Gulf of AK - brief high pressure should build later today - into tomorrow, but another spoke of energy is going to rotate in on Sunday - best chance rain North Bay.   Another break and then models are hinting at another very significant storm mid to late week - like the system that came through a few days ago bringing high winds, heavy rain and very large swell.  Surf is 11ft at 12 sec from 300.   Winds are west/southwest and water temps 50 degrees in the Bay Area - colder further north.   Might not be a surf day unless you like the junk.   Not seeing a real break in winds over the next week - will fluctuate between south/southwest as systems come through and then northwest behind front passage.   Plenty of swell on tap as more swell trains will move through the waters.   Check the winds each day and you'll probably find spots to ride.   Climate models are saying La Nina is over and El Nino is already starting to show signs of coming back to life for next winter.   I'm not sure what that is going to look like, given we are about to break the all time record for wet weather (1982-83) during a season that i don't think any of the experts predicted would happen.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 3-29

Strong northwest winds are blowing this AM after passage of a cold front overnight which dropped some rain throughout the region.   High pressure in control now through the weekend and likely beyond with strong northwest winds forecast.   Decent size swell is in the water and will build through the weekend - 10-13ft on Saturday, 15-18ft on Sunday, fading some on Monday.   Spots protected from the northwest winds will obviously be cleaner.   Anything facing west/northwest will be shredded from the wind.   Water temps will likely begin to cool off with the never ending spring time winds that are setting up.   Long range models still hinting at more rain late next week will see if that comes to pass.   The region is just shy of the all time rainfall record from the 82-83' Super El Nino - we need about 5 more inches to surpass that.   The current rainy season doesn't end until Jun 30.   Cya in the water.