UPDATED FORECAST 12-17 - Brief break, then stormy, XL Surf

 New, large northwest swell filled in overnight - buoys showing 9@17 seconds around SF, 12 @17 much further north (swell angle 296 to 300).   Winds are very light out of the south.  It's going to stay large most of the week (above 9-10 ft) and then going XL this weekend when a long period, powerful northwest swell comes in around 17ft@17 seconds.   This is a result of Gulf Low just getting going which is going to create some of the biggest buoy reads in the N Pac we've seen in a long while.   If the models are accurate - forecasting swells around 60ft! out in the N Pac when the storm is at it's peak.  It's a monster size storm.   Rain stays away until late in the week and then CA looks to get another good pounding through next weekend with a possible atmospheric river set up - especially Bay Area to the north.  Winds will be good for the next few days and then turn strongly south for the duration of the next storm event.   Cya in the water.  

Updated Forecast 12-6

High pressure continues to dominate the region leaving us high and dry.  Changes on the horizon for far nor cal this weekend and then for everyone else by next weekend.   Rainy pattern will return by mid month.  Tsunami madness/alerts yesterday after the quake - which were warranted given the size of the quake and proximity to our Coast.  Had that been a quake with vertical motion as opposed to horizontal motion (it was on a strike/slip fault) - a tsunami would have most certainly been generated.    I  see people bitching about all the warnings etc today online and elsewhere - the system did was it is supposed to do.  But by all means next time we have a big quake in the ocean go stand on the beach.   As for the surf - mid period northwest swell in the water this morning - 6-7@13 seconds.  Swell builds Sunday as a new, bigger northwest swell comes in at 11@14 seconds - staying big Monday into Monday night - gradual fade into Tuesday but still fun 7@14.   Winds ramp up a bit through Sunday then go back to light and variable to start next week.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING WEEK

 Storm door is closing today and we look to stay dry for a while as high pressure sets up.  Long term models are saying no rain until at least 2nd wk of December - maybe longer.  The good news, many locations north of SF received about 300-400% of normal rainfall for the date in the past week.   Surf wise, a rare, off season, long period south is due to come in mid week - forerunners overnight tonight.  Look for the swell to peak in the 2-4 ft range at 19seconds from 187 degrees.   Swell will gradually fade into Friday.   Get what you can as things stay pretty quiet after that with the storm machine shut down in the N Pac as the inactive phase of the MJO (dry air) builds and holds.   Winds look really nice the rest of the week - light and variable.  Happy Thanksgiving and cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 11-17 - BIG AND STORMY, FIRST AR OF THE SEASON

 Gonna be big, ugly, windy and messy for the coming week as the first atmospheric river event of the winter season comes ashore late Tuesday night lasting until next weekend.   Lots of rain forecast especially north of the Bay Area - but everyone is going to get in on the action.  Surf wise - just plain big with a mix of large SW swells (storm swell) and NW swells through the week.  I    dunno, maybe get some work done, start your holiday shopping - sure there will be some spots that can harness the energy - but it won't be pretty for the most part.  Cya in the water. 

GOING LARGE AND STORMY, UPDATED FORECAST 11-10

 Storm door to open this week with multiple fronts coming through starting tonight and lasting through next weekend.  As a result of all this activity, multiple, large swell trains will be moving in.   First XL swell builds in overnight on Monday - hitting 15ft@16 seconds for Tuesday.  After that it will be hard to distinguish each swell event - just safe to say that it won't go below 14-15ft from Tuesday through Thursday night!   Swell direction for most of the week will be 292 to 307 degrees.  Swell will be biggest from SF north.    Winds will be variable - as fronts come onshore, south wind and as they pass by, northwest flow behind.   On and off rain through Thursday.   Going to look and feel much more like fall for the coming week!  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 11-1 - LARGE OUT THERE

 Yesterday morning the PAPA Buoy peaked with a reading of 20ft@17 seconds - biggest so far in this early season of north swells.  This morning, Pt Arena showing 19ft@16 seconds.   A very large, N Pacific Low has occupied the Northeastern Pacific for a few days now and will continue to send large waves to the West Coast.   Very low pressure combined with strong winds - all of it moving in our direction creates a very dynamic wave scape in the ocean.  Ongoing rain and mountain snow for most of N Cal through at least Saturday, then the skies clear, winds turn more offshore and we dry out.   Winds will really start to nuke on Sunday and then we will also have a very large steep angled north wind swell in the water too.   So if you like big, next few days for you.   Otherwise, find spots that are sheltered from all this massive energy and you'll probably score.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-23

 Long period late season south swell filling in along the coast this morning - deepwater swell running around 3ft@18 second from around 180.  Swell will gradually start to fade tomorrow but stick around until Saturday - when energy from the Northwest takes over again with a new West swell filling in during the day at 8ft@12 seconds.   Winds are forecast to go off shore the next few days - then light south by Saturday as a weak storm system moves in on the stubborn high pressure ridge over the weekend.   Conditions may then give way next week to more unsettled conditions with low pressure dropping down along the West Coast.    Until then, decent conditions with swells from the south and north - fall in CA.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 10-14 - XL SWELL INBOUND

 Tracking a large northwest swell for tomorrow - peaked at the Papa Buoy around 12-13 ft @15-16 seconds early this morning.   Long period forerunners hitting Cape Mendo Buoy now with 17sec energy as well as early signals at Pt Arena.   Swell fills in tonight and will be solid to start the morning tomorrow most likely 8-10ft at 15 seconds.  Swell angle 298-302 degrees.   Low pressure poised to hit the Northwest and drag a cold front through CA Tuesday night through Thursday - best chances for rain north of Sonoma County again.  High pressure builds in strongly as that storm plows into the Great Basin setting up a strong offshore wind event - typical of our Fall - into the weekend with north winds and a big jump in the northwest wind swell - peaking around 10ft @10 seconds Thursday into Saturday.   Fall is here.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-8 - N PAC WAKING UP

 Mid period northwest swell in the water today after long period forerunners came in yesterday afternoon. Swell is 7@14 seconds from 310 - bigger north of Bodega Bay.   Swell fades late, will be replaced by mid size wind swell for the middle of the week and then another moderate size northwest swell rolls in for the weekend with a chance for rain Friday night/Saturday morning.  Best chance of rain Bay Area north, with some rain expected from Western Sonoma County to the CA/OR border.  October heat wave is over and to be replaced by temps that feel more like fall.   Looking ahead to the weekend - potential for a decent size late season south looking more likely and further out, good pulse of northwest swell potentially for next week.   Jet stream is active and steaming off of Japan in the Gulf of Alaska, just need to get some troughs moving in that energy to create more swell.   The pattern is decent however.   Winds don't look too bad the rest of the week - typical for October.  Cya in the water.  

XL Swell North, Smaller South

Large swell continues to impact spots north of Bodega Bay, buoys reading 12-13ft@11-13 seconds from around 310,  It looks like most forecasts have missed how big this swell would be.  It's actually two swells combining, a new Gulf Swell at around 6 ft@12 seconds and bigger wind swell.   Surf looks to stay on the larger side through the weekend and into early next week.  Winds are not ideal, mix of south to southwest wind for Bay Area and north to northwest wind Jenner to Cape Mendocino.  High pressure will be the dominant weather system for the next week - with much warmer temps again and possible offshore winds early next week.   Out in the Pacific, season is in swing with weather systems coming across the upper latitudes.   We remain at the tail end of our dry season but that will change later in October.  Plenty to ride the next few days, just keep an eye on the winds.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAT 9-22, N PAC TO STIR

Good size wind swell in the water today hitting best SF north - northern buoys showing this energy well at around 8-10ft @10-11 seconds, steep angle, 315 plus.   Winds are light, southerly for the majority of the central and northern coast.  We have our first decent longer period swell coming in mid week - should peak around 7-8ft@14 seconds.   This is from a gale moving through the Northern Gulf of Alaska.   Swell will build in Tuesday night, peak Wednesday and slow fade Thursday.  Biggest waves SF to the north.  Winds not bad, as we would expect in late September, should remain fairly light.  Until that swell rolls in, wind swell will hang on for at least another day.    Storm track looks to remain active, but displaced up in the N Pac as high pressure dome sits off and over the West Coast for a few more days.   The pattern is looking better for late September.   For those up early, Orion, the winter constellation, is up in the morning sky now around 5am, always a great sign fall is arriving and will continue to be higher in the sky, earlier each night, as we move into October and beyond.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 9-14, WAITING ON FALL

Not much going on the next 7-10 days - mostly fluctuations of wind swell from the north and minor south and southwest swells hovering around 1-3ft (deepwater).   Models hinting at the potential for more northwest swell around mid month, so hang in there.   Until then, get what you can!  Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST SEP 4, NW SWELL FOR THUR/FRI

 Quick update this morning - first northwest ground swell of the early season due in tomorrow and Friday - looks like we can expect deepwater heights 4-6ft@15-16 seconds from 295.   Might come in a touch bigger north of Bodega Bay.   Winds look fairly light the next few days as well as high pressure sits overhead.   Cya in the water.  

SEPTEMBER 1!

Welcome to the 2024/2025 season!  Made it through another summer and for the most part a very wave starved one at that.   Early season is already showing signs of life in Central and N Cal - small nw swell has been moving through the waters since early yesterday, peaking around 5@13 from 310.  Smaller today - 3-4ft @11 seconds.  Another similar size swell will build in Monday night and run for a couple days.   Background southerly swells look to continue through next week - nothing bigger than 2ft.   Winds:  Not that bad other than Monday night into Tuesday when high pressure starts to build again.  This will be mostly over the outer waters.  Beyond, winds look to remain relatively light which is normal as we start meteorological fall (Sept 1).   Very weak La Niña for the season ahead, depending on what long term sources you read, CA looks to be in for an average wet season which will probably deliver the same for swell production.   Cya in the water.  

AUGUST

Small gutless surf continues up and down the California Coast into the weekend, not much hope in the short term.  Watching Tropical Storm Carlotta moving west/northwest and may come into the CA swell window over the weekend - sending a small pulse of tropical swell up - especially for So Cal.  How much makes it north of Santa Cruz hard to say right now.  Models forecasting deep water along the lines of 3ft@13 seconds - steep south angle - let's see if it develops.  More interesting and just a model feature right now is a second tropical storm/hurricane behind Carlotta forecast to develop.   Looks like that would be a larger storm and movement into a better swell window as it heads north a bit further before turning to the west.   Will watch both over the next couple days and see how things shape up.  September less than a month away now, so hang in.   **I  will be taking the rest of August off from reports - get things going again in September.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST FOR 7-24

 Small south swell building in today and tomorrow - probably won't go over 2ft @17 seconds, but at summer spots, fun enough.   North of SF - larger wind swell on offer keeping some waves around with relatively decent winds given the point we find ourselves in the summer season.   Not much change in the forecast - small to background south swell, some wind swell along with ongoing northwest winds - strongest north of SF.   This is keeping water temps in Nor Cal downright cold for some - upper 40s to low 50s the farther north you go.   Temps start to cool down everywhere after today and should be quite nice by the weekend to give everyone a break from the heat.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 7-11 - SW Swell Mid Month

 Not much going on this week - background south swell dribbles and wind swell is all we have on tap.  Watching the wave models now for a potentially solid run of southwest swell starting around Tuesday of next week for So Cal/Central CA - pushing through Nor Cal next Wednesday and beyond.  Looking like we could see pretty decent 2-3ft@17-18 sec energy throughout most of the event.  Big question will be the winds right now - the northwest wind machine as slacked off some, as it does when we move into July and August - but this week at least, we still have gale forecasts up for the outer waters north of Jenner.  Winds should settle back down later this week.  More by the weekend as I'll have a better idea of the wind and wave forecast - right now it's still a bit early to be precise.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST FOR 4TH OF JULY

Large dome of high pressure is parked over CA which will continue to bring record high temps to the Central/Northern part of the state through the weekend and beyond.  Meanwhile, near the coast, very shallow marine layer should keep things cooler through the period and bring the masses to the ocean to beat the extreme heat.   Large northwest wind swell has filled in since yesterday - peaking right now at Pt Arena Buoy at 14ft@11 seconds from a very steep 330 degrees.   Should continue through the day, start to fade the rest of the week.  From the south, we have a couple of southwest swells inbound - the first a "primer" swell for Thursday into early Friday - likely to peak around 2ft@17 seconds from 190.   The 2nd swell, which is the main event - fills in slowly Friday into the weekend - likely peaking around 3ft @17-18 seconds - also from 190.   The northwest wind machine is being shut down from the extreme high pressure ridge - so after today winds should be light through the extended period - ideal for an inbound south swell to move up the coast and fill in without northwest wind or swell reducing the size.   Should be a decent weekend for south swell fans especially if you live or frequent a summer swell spot.   Happy 4th of July, be safe out there and don't be a kook that starts a fire somewhere.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 6-25

 Was back on the East Coast this past week so no report.   Back to it today.   Small South Pacific swells in the water through Thursday this week - about 2-2.5ft @14-15 seconds from 195.   Local northwest wind swell to continue through the week but on the smaller side as the wind machine as let up some over the outer waters.   South Pacific should continue to send up small pulses of swell through the period, but nothing major on the horizon.   July approaches, that's getting into winter in the Southern Hemisphere so we should begin to see some bigger and more consistent swells as the month goes by.   Until then, small surf, not so horrible winds.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 6-16

 Not much hope in the short term - we do have a new longer period southwest swell building in the next couple days - impact of that will be best from Santa Cruz to So Cal - maybe deep water heights around 2-3ft @14-17 seconds.   Something to ride on a longer board.    North of SF - it's blown to shreds as the relentless northwest winds continue to plow down the Coast - especially strong from Cape Mendo to Pt Reyes - making sure that any south swell that does make it north gets obliterated before it reaches any of the nooks and crannies in the region.   After this small south which will peak around mid week - nothing else on the charts other than wind and locally generated south swell.   La Niña summer in full effect and not providing us with much to ride.  Summer Solstice coming up this week and then the count down will begin again towards Fall.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 6-9, MORE N PAC SWELL

 New late season swell showing at the far northern buoys this morning - 7-8ft @14 from 295-300.  Swell will build all day and peak tomorrow.   This is from another storm system that followed the first storm last week.  Additionally, south swell in the water - still around 2-2.5ft@14-15sec from 210-215.   Northwest winds are blowing hard and gales are forecast for the next few days in the outer waters, some inner waters north of Jenner.  Water temps remain cold - upper 40s north of Bodega Bay, low 50s SF south.   The New Zealand storm corridor is active and we will see bouts of southwest swell from this area most of next week - nothing large - staying around 2ft @15-16 seconds with a 210-215 deg direction.  Northwest winds will howl all week so don't look for calm conditions anytime soon on the North Coast.   Large windswell will result most of the week.  The wind and swell will make a mess of these small souths coming up the Coast, and knock size down - especially once they move past Santa Cruz.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 6-2, LATE SEASON STORM

 Abnormally strong atmospheric river type system hitting the Pacific NW today and will drag a cold front through the northwest part of CA tonight through Monday.  Rain line will be about as far south as the Sonoma Coast.   Maybe a few sprinkles in Marin.   Relentless northwest winds will ease tonight, but then ratchet back up on Tuesday.   Small south swells in the water, overlapping the next few days - deepwater swell around 2-3 ft from around 180-185.  We will see a big jump in swell heights Tuesday through Thursday, inbound swell from the storm that came through.  Biggest days are Wed/Thurs - 10-12ft @11-13 seconds.    Otherwise, seas will be on the rise from all the winds coming in Tuesday through Thursday which will pick up the northwest windswell again for mid week.  Not tracking any major south in the week ahead - just wind and large-ish windswell.   Water temps are quite cold - seasonally so - low 50s SF and Santa Cruz - 48-50 north of Bodega Bay.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 5-23

 Hope you got some of the back to back southwest swells this week - most spots from Santa Cruz south faired best - Nor Cal was blown to bits with heavy wind and seas.   Swell winding down now and the weekend doesn't look all that grand unless you like northwest wind and swell.   That is pretty much all we have for the next 4-5 days with some background southern swells.   There is a new storm forecast to form Down Under near NZ over the weekend - that will send swell up by next weekend.   Happy Memorial Day and cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 5-15 - SOUTH PACIFIC STIRS......

Foggy morning on the CA Coast as summer like marine influence has set up shop.  Fading south swell and decent size north wind swell in the water.  High pressure is going build into the NE Pac/Northwest this week and the result will be strong northwest winds and large wind swell - mostly influencing conditions north of Pt Reyes through next Sunday.   Strong winds - 25-30 kts with gusts to 40 kts possible Thursday to Sunday over the outer waters.   Expect 10-14ft wind swell to develop by Friday - and this will take the piss out of the New Zealand swells on the move up especially SF north - Santa Cruz should fair nicely.  We have 3-4 swells coming up, nothing huge, but decent long period stuff from a favorable corridor Down Under with swell directions in the 210-215 window.   Probably looking for 2-3 ft deep water at 15-19 seconds starting Friday and going through Sunday.   As noted above, due to the strong northwest winds and large northwest wind swell, as these swell round Pt Conception and Pt Reyes they will degrade some as they arrive to central and northern CA.   Still, swell should be fun size at summer breaks.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 5-4 - Not a lot of hope.....

 Heavy rain and wind in Nor Cal right now - especially north of Marin County as a strong late season storm makes its way onshore.   Surf is very small - from either direction  - and the winds aren't cooperating either.  This trend of small south swell in the background will continue through the next week with maybe a bump up by mid week - especially for Santa Cruz and points south.   For Bay Area/North - look for in increase in northwest/mid period swell Sunday night into the first part of this week - swell from the current storm coming in.   Deepwater will probably go 7-8ft @12 sec - biggest Bodega Bay to the north.   Issues will be the spring time winds - once the front clears the northwest winds will come roaring back through the entire coming week.   Water temps are very cold due to all the wind - around 49F SF and 46F up on the Mendo Coast.   We are really waiting for the South Pac to open for biz, but with the transition underway from El Niño to La Niña - pattern is a bit stagnant.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATE FORECAST 4-26 - STAYING SMALL

Weak front moving through Nor Cal/Bay Area this morning bringing some light rain to the region.   Northwest winds are really going to ramp up later today behind the front with gale force winds over the outer waters forecast.   Small background south swells have been the case all week, and will continue - should see an up tick in northwest windswell over the next two days and a mid period northwest swell is forecast to come in at 4-5ft @14 seconds, but likely to just blend in with the northwest windswell dominating the nearshore waters.   Not seeing much change or improvement over the next seven days - background south to continue, strong northwest winds and localized windswell the rule.  In other words, Spring time!    Unsettled weather looks to continue on and off, with some light rain now and then, especially north of Bodega Bay.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 4-18 - FIRST DECENT SOUTH OF THE SEASON

 Early season south swell showing strong this morning and will peak later today.   So Cal deepwater a solid 4.5@17 from around 185-190 - Nor Cal is 3-4@17 from similar angle.  Winds will stay down for the next two days before turning stronger northwest again for the weekend.   Another pulse of south will fill in over the weekend, smaller than our current swell at 2@17 from 200-205.  Because this swell formed further east of New Zealand, good angle of approach for many spots in CA and sets at times might be bigger.   Go surf, cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 4-11

Last day of high pressure in control and then winter returns for the weekend.   Storm system will drop down Friday bringing rain and wind, first for far Nor Cal and then moving down the entire State through Sunday.  Mix of swells in the water today, decent size late season northwest swell around 7-9ft at 14sec from 300-305 and some local wind swell around 4-5ft@9-11 seconds.   Will have another shot of swell for the weekend from the current storm now churning in the N Pac and also watching an early season South Pacific swell inbound for the weekend.   Nothing major, but perhaps deepwater around 2@17 sec from 187 or so.  Fairly steep angle.   Winds will be tricky over the next three to four days.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 4-5

Storm system moving through CA this morning dumping heavy snow in the Sierra as well as local mountains in Central/Nor Cal.   Storm is moving south and east today and will exit tonight.  Behind it, strong north to northwest winds are howling as high pressure fills in.   Large, steep angle northwest swell has filled in - 15-17 ft @13 seconds from 310 far northern areas - showing 11@12 from 300 all the way down to Pt Conception.    Winds will remain strong all day, fading some for Sat/Sun and then ramping back up from north next week as high pressure builds further, temps warm and we get a good shot of Spring weather.   Beyond the weekend - surf will stay small to mid size with a mix of smaller mid period northwest swells and some chunky wind swell from all the wind scheduled to blow.   I   won't say winter is over yet, but the pattern is certainly slowing down as we move into the 2nd week of April.   Good chance we see some weaker systems on and off for the next month or two as the N Pac still has some decent energy in place.    Not tracking any systems from the Southern Hemisphere for the upcoming week.  Cya in the water.    

UPDATED FORECAST 3-30

 Another round of winter storms impacting the state - last in the series moving through So Cal today and exiting the region.    Behind the low pressure, high pressure will quickly build in and bring strong north winds for the next few days down the coast, further tumbling water temps in the process which are hovering around 50 in far Nor Cal and about 53 Bay Area.   Pulse of west swell is in the water around 8-10 ft @12 seconds from 280 degrees.  North to northwest winds all week, it will feel more like spring as well.   Next chance of rain appears to be late next weekend, but very light amounts.   Don't think we are quite done with the rainy season so expect some April showers.  Swell will gradually fade into mid week, with a very small south swell mid week as well - likely 2 ft @14 sec, and probably lost under all the chop from the upcoming winds.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 3-24

 Storm system sweeping through and out of CA today as winter keeps rolling on.   Expect a couple more systems to come in for the upcoming week, especially Central CA to Oregon border.  Steeper angle northwest swell in the water at 9-10ft@12 sec from 300.  Biggest north of SF.  Northwest winds will really ramp up today as the front moves out - winds 15-25knots gusting to 30 knots.  Lighter northwest winds Monday/Tuesday, then turn southwest ahead of a weather system for Wed/Thurs.  Swell fades into tomorrow then a pair of west swells come in for Tuesday and Wednesday, getting XL by Thursday when we push back up to 14-16ft.  Biggest swell north of SF as usual.   No south swell in the water this coming week but keeping an eye on storm activity in the Southern Hemisphere.   Plenty of waves, check your winds and cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 3-18

 Mostly light winds this week as high pressure remains in control through today.   Starting tomorrow and into mid week, high will push off to the east as the N Pac and Jetstream begin to re organize, bringing wet weather back to the West Coast starting Thursday for parts north of Sonoma County, and Bay Area Friday into Saturday.   Cooler temps will accompany a series of systems.   Surf wise, it's staying small for the most part - smaller long period northwest swell rolls into tonight into Tuesday - 2-4@18 sec - fattening up some for Wednesday, around 5ft @15 sec - this is deepwater swell.   Small early season south swell in the water Wednesday and Thursday - at 2ft@17 seconds.   Little tease from Down Under.  Winds turn more southwest for Thursday/Friday once the rain starts up.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 3-13

Storm track is pulling off CA - should give us a break for the next 7-10 days, as high pressure builds in over the NE Pacific, with low pressure in the Desert Southwest - forming what weather experts call "a rex block pattern" which is a very stagnant set up.   N Pacific still active but most of the energy now moves west of the Dateline.   XXL swell is hitting far Nor Cal this morning - buoys were 15-17ft @15 seconds from 305 degrees. Much smaller Central and So Cal - around 8ft@13 sec.   North/offshore winds will ramp up on Thursday due in part to the gradient difference between the low/high pressure - swell will gradually wind down into the weekend and winds will become much lighter Sat/Sun.  For sure looking like a springtime set up.   Get it while you can.   We do have some activity Down Under from the Southern Hemisphere - but much of that energy will focus on So Cal and Santa Cruz - and pretty small for the most part.   El Niño is fading, La Niña on the horizon for late year into next year - but it will take a while for all the energy created by this strong El Niño to dissipate - so some swell production in the N Pac into April/May very likely.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST FOR MARCH 7TH

Looking a lot like an early Spring pattern setting up.  Northwest winds are howling from about SF to Pt Arena. The ocean is responding accordingly with rising, large, short period wind swell and tumbling water temps due to upwelling.  The good news, short lived blow today, should ease off tomorrow (a bit).   Wind waves today north of Bodega/outer waters - 12-14ft, with a very small northwest swell lost underneath at 3-4ft @13 seconds.  Northwest winds 25-30 kts.   Wind drops to 10-15kts tomorrow as a new, mid period northwest swell comes in - but only at 4-6ft @14 seconds.  Rain returns Saturday - mostly north of SF - and will last through Monday.   Southwest winds will be on the rise Saturday/Sunday into Monday - making a mess of things.  Large Northwest swell steams in on Sunday at 12-14ft - but doubtful anything will be manageable with the wind except perhaps for Central Cal and further south.  Swell angle on most of this energy is going to be pretty steep - 300 plus degrees.   Enjoy a couple days of sun and then it's back to the wet this weekend.  Cya in the water.  

MARCH 1

 March 1st is historically the end of the "good" wave season in Northern/Central Cal.   This March, all bets are off - right now we have a macking swell inbound from a huge area of low pressure sitting and spinning in the Gulf of Alaska - which will bring the well advertised heavy snow event to the Sierra and most all higher elevations of Northern California.   Expect to see accumulations of snow even at lower elevations - below 500ft late tonight and Saturday.   Few flakes at sea level possible north of Ft Bragg.  Unfortunately for the inbound swell - brutal sw to west winds are tearing things up, so don't expect it to be clean throughout the weekend.  In fact, not really seeing much improvement in the wind through next Tuesday.  Such has been the story this winter as far as surfing goes.   Swell will stay XXL through Sunday, gradually fade into next week.   More rain on the way on and off next week as well.  Wish i  had a better forecast - but that's what we got.   Cya in the water?   

UPDATED FORECAST 2-22

It's been a wild couple weeks and I  for one was not in the water much, just dealing with storm after storm hitting the North Coast.  Finally some nice days, chance to dry out, get in the water and catch some waves.  Surf was mostly fun size today - about 4-6 ft @11 sec from 300 degrees.  New swell is inbound for Friday/Saturday - deep water 8-10ft @14 sec on Friday, gradually fading into Saturday and then another long period northwest swell runs in Sunday, 4-6@18 seconds which sticks around until Monday.   Winds look good through Sunday - light northeast to southeast.   Nice weather for the most part, but then things begin to break down again starting next week - probably about mid week on as the jet stream will once again take aim at CA.   Larger swell also comes in Tuesday at 12-14 ft, but by then the northwest winds will be chugging over the outer waters and potentially near shore making a mess of things.  For now, nice reprieve for a few days, some decent conditions and fun surf.  Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 2-10

 High pressure overhead for a few days giving us a welcome break from last week's storms.  Don't get too comfy, as the long term forecast is now showing another potentially impactful series of storms/atmospheric rivers to hit from Feb 17-23.   More on that by the middle of next week.  Surf wise, lingering northwest swell around today - 6-7@12 seconds.   New west swell builds tonight and will be nicely solid Sunday with deepwater at 8-9ft@17 seconds.  Swell direction around 296 deg.   That swell will slowly subside but linger until about Wednesday of next week.  Winds look pretty light through next Wednesday as well.  Good time to get wet if you've been out of the water for a while due to the weather.   My sense is by next Thursday things will rapidly start to deteriorate as the storm door opens and we get hit with another El Niño infused group of storms.   El Niño is on its last legs and we will start to transition back to La Niña by mid spring - but until then, plenty of energy out in the Pacific for the Jetstream to work with.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 2-1, NO SURF FOR YOU!

 In between atmospheric rivers at the moment - strong storm came ashore early Wednesday am packing very strong winds and torrential rain in spots.  Swell has come in behind the storm - running about 14-17ft from 280 degrees.  It's going to stay on the large side through the weekend, very messy with the winds blowing strongly from the south/south east for the most part until next Tuesday.   Chance of rain next couple days and then the 2nd atmospheric river comes in Sunday into Monday.  This one will take a bit more southerly track - so SF, Santa Cruz and points south will see the greatest impacts.  You might find a few moments over the next 5-7 days at certain spots depending on winds, rain, swell - but it sure doesn't look pretty!   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST, THE WEEK AHEAD....

Lull between storms today as high pressure briefly sweeps in over the region.  Swell on the small side, left overs at around 6@11sec from 285.   Winds are light.   New swell sweeps in overnight from our most recent storm - peaking tomorrow at around 8-10 ft @16 seconds from 275.  Swell will still be decent at 9-11 ft on Thursday and then slow face into the weekend.   Rain tomorrow and again on Friday.   Winds not too bad until the Friday storm when they will ramp up from the southeast again.   Beyond next weekend - forecasts calling for perhaps a very stormy period about the middle of next week with the potential for heavy rain.  Still very early but something to keep an eye on.  XL swell most likely to result with sloppy conditions.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE WEEK OF 1-15-24

 New storm to come ashore Tuesday/Wednesday this week with a brief break and then potentially a much heavier precipitation pattern headed into next weekend and beyond.  Surf will remain on the smaller side through Friday as the jet stream is displaced some to far north with high pressure hovering along the Pacific Coast stretching to the southwest.  Later this week the jet stream will consolidate once again with stronger winds coming across the Pacific, which will strengthen and fuel storm production.   Winds will be highly variable - strong south to southeast as fronts come ashore, backing to the northwest briefly Wednesday and then blowing strong from the south and southeast into next weekend.  Not seeing much of any swell above 6-8ft through the week.   Might be a good week to get some work done.   Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 1-9-24

 Storm door fairly open with moderate to heavy rain forecast for points north of Mendocino, lighter Bay Area to the south.  Look for on and off rain showers through the week.  The weekend potentially could feature a rather robust storm system depending on how things evolve over the next couple days.  A "Kona" low pressure system moving to the northwest of Hawaii is forecast to merge with a N Pac Low mid week and this combination could bring heavy rain to the West Coast.  Right now models show most of that energy going into the Pac NW and far N Cal as a blocking high pressure ridge may set up right along the CA coast.   Lots of uncertainty however in how this develops - so we wait and see.  On the surf front, plenty of swell around this week but the winds are going to be issue - waffling between southwest/west and northwest as fronts come and go.  Biggest swell of the week should come ashore Wednesday, peaking around 12-14 ft @14 seconds.   Left overs into Thursday, Friday and Saturday as surf heights stay in the 5-8ft range.  I'm not really seeing a clean day for winds through about Saturday - but some spots will be better than others based on orientation to the wind.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 1-1-24

 Storm door remains open and more XXL swells due in over the next 7-10 days.   For far Nor Cal, we will see storm systems about every 36 hour come ashore - with south wind and rain.   First storm comes in Tuesday and will exit Thursday.   Brief break, then more rain and mountain snow this coming weekend.   Big day this coming week will be Wednesday with deep water swell 14-17ft at 14 seconds.  Another West swell at 270 - all these swells in this current cycle have been big west events - given the storm track and flow across the mid latitudes of the N Pac.  Swell will drop a bit this coming Thursday to 6-8 ft and then ratchet back up Friday at 10-12 ft.   Winds really sort of a mess the rest of the week - strong south to strong west/northwest most of the week.  Next series of storms will be colder as we will be more under the influence of the Polar Jetstream and energy coming out of the N Pac.  Cya in the water.