UPDATED FORECAST 8-8 - EL NINO MACHINE BEGINS AGAIN......

 The large scale mechanics of a building El Niño, stalled for a few weeks, has rapidly started up again in the Pacific.   Sea surface temps (SSTs) are warming quickly in two key regions that weather forecasters use to predict the strength of an El Niño - Nino 1.2 and Nino 3.4.   Storm production in theory should pick up and we do have a new storm in the Southeast Pacific sending a swell up for late week as well as a very interesting storm forecast in the North Pacific resulting in swell building potentially late next weekend into the following week.   While the activity in the South Pacific looks to continue to ramp up through late August, the building El Niño might just launch us right into fall swells for CA.   Look for this New Zealand south swell to start showing late Thursday, but best and biggest Friday through Sunday.   Nothing epic, but that corridor down under is usually a good direction for us - 210-220 deg.  Deep water swell should max around 2-2.5ft.   Winds look to wind down some through the week, which might help the swell hold together as it comes around Pt Conception for points north on the CA coast.   More on the Gulf action later this week as the storm comes together.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 8-3 - first hints of new south showing

 Don't get overly excited, but seeing some forerunners of a new south starting to build offshore at 2-3@20 seconds, from 200 plus degrees.   This is a swell that developed in the Tasman Sea and should provide a bit of relief over the next few days and a couple pulses run in and overlap.   Probably won't see anything over 2-3ft at the outer buoys, so it's small wave gear material for sure.   The El Niño pump has now restarted - so it will be interesting to see what develops over the next few weeks.   Wind wise for us the next few days - more of the same - northwest blows each day - small craft advisory up through late Friday - so breezy, but south facing spots will be more protected from the wind.   Cya in the water.  

AUGUST 1

 Late summer, September will be here soon enough.  We are waiting for the very large global ocean and air mechanisms, in this case El Niño, to shift into high gear and prime the pumps for swell production for the southern hemisphere spring and the northern hemisphere fall.   Until that starts to happen, and seeing signs of it now, we won't have much to ride in CA for the next week or more.  We are also locked in this low pressure bias in the N Pac and very strong high pressure ridge to our east over the southwest US - which is just enough of a tug of war to keep strong northwest winds in check, just enough to mess up the surf but not enough to create the usual summer wind swell pattern we get on the north coast.  Large pool of cold water off CA and Baja, remnants of La Niña are showing signs of retreat, once that is gone surface temps in almost the entire Pacific Basin will be warm to very warm.   Watch and wait, cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 7-29 - not much change, small south......

 Small surf, marginal conditions continue.  We do have a south swell in the water this weekend and will stay in the background through mid week - but don't expect anything over 2-3ft (deep water).  Some buoys are showing 3@14 this am, Cape Mendo and then points south.  With the incoming tide, spots that can pull in this small swell might be ok as the winds are fairly light right now near shore.  We are waiting for the El Niño pump to re start in early August - which should start to fuel storm production in the southern hemisphere again and perhaps up north.   Until then, get what you can.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 7-22 - No surf for you.

 Golf, hiking, fishing, riding a bike, working in your garden, traveling someplace that actually has surf - these are things you can do in the summer when you have no surf around your local spots - which is what we have had now for quite a while and looks to continue for the foreseeable future.  We are waiting for the El Niño pump to start up again - it's been on pause for two/three weeks - but looks to push again starting Early August - which will hopefully start up storm production Down Under and perhaps start to fuel activity towards the N Pac for early fall.   Until all that - its northwest winds and crappy short period wind swell.   The winds over the outer waters are just enough to mess up everything but not strong enough or sustained enough to generate some larger wind swell (over 10ft ideal) for any kind of rideable waves near shore.   So, we wait.   Hang in there, August around the corner and September beyond.   Cya in the garden.  

UPDATED FORECAST - MAYBE SOME WIND SWELL HOPE INTO THE WEEKEND......

Not much on the charts right now from the S Pac or N Pac.  The South Pacific is basically asleep with blocking high pressure down under preventing storms from getting any traction over the open ocean.  Minimal background south swell to continue and might tick up a notch by this weekend as the storm corridor between New Zealand and South America remains barely open.   Up around our parts, the N Pac is under high pressure for the most part, although small systems continue to drift over the top of the ridge to the far north.   But none of these systems are generating swell.  We will have very strong northwest winds the rest of the week over the northern outer waters and that should generate some larger wind swell by Friday and Saturday with deep water heights reaching 8-10 feet Friday, 9-11 ft on Saturday.  As such, some low period wind swell should propagate into the inner waters this weekend - but biggest north of Bodega Bay.   SF/Bay Area likely to be an ugly mess with the winds.  The one wild card is the heat wave coming that might suppress winds near shore.  That would be most likely for Saturday/Sunday.  Get what you can, it's almost September, see you in the water.   

4TH OF JULY WEEKEND FORECAST.....

Friday morning - mini south swell dribbles and some short period steep angle wind swell around 6-7 ft at 8 seconds - not pretty stuff.  Our only hope for the next 4-5 days is just more wind swell - which should increase in size over the weekend as the northwest wind machine is going to crank up over the northern outer waters through the 4th.   As a result - look for wind swell to increase in size to 8-10 ft Saturday, 7-9ft on Sunday when the period gets to around 10 secs.   Biggest north of SF.   Overall it's going to be windy at the coast, with fog, hot inland - typical July summer weather for Nor Cal.   Tropics are active down around Mexico with Hurricane Adrian and Tropical Storm Beatriz.   At this time neither is a swell maker for Nor Cal as the angle is too steep and tucked under Baja.  Trip to Cabo right now would be the call.  Get what you can - only two more months until Sept.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 6-24- STAYING SMALL

 Not much going on right now - dog days - very small wind swell, background southern hemisphere - looks to be the norm for a while.  Good time to hit the beach breaks, mow, go fishing, take a trip where there are waves.   On a positive note, Summer Solstice has passed, moving back a day at time now towards Fall and an El Niño infused surf season.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 6-16 - WINDS TO CRANK UP

 Another relatively decent wind day ahead on Friday and then things change for the weekend and beyond as a very deep and unseasonable low pressure system drops out of the Gulf of AK into the Pac NW and far Nor Cal.  Northwest winds will really crank up tonight with gusts to 45kts and sustained winds on Sat/Sun look to be 20-25kts with gusts to 40-45kt.  This is mostly the northern outer waters, but expect pretty blustery conditions along the coast and inland.   Winds of this strength will ramp up the wind swell, which will be the dominant source of waves.   Look for wind waves 9-10 ft through Sunday.   Background south at 2ft - but hardly noticeable north of Santa Cruz.   Fog remains an issue up and down the coast and as long as we're in this low pressure regime - don't look for it to clear much anytime soon.  In fact the next week or so will be unseasonably cool.  Might even see some snow showers over the Shasta/Trinity region and the Northern Sierra.  Is this summer odd, it is somewhat, but we are also heading into an El Niño fall/winter - low pressure the rule in the Pacific - typhoons already recurving from the far West Pac into the Gulf - in June - which is not something we normally see until late Aug or Early September.  There is a lot of energy already in the Pacific Basin - warm air, warm water - that leads to more rain, strong low pressure - probably some very large surf this fall.   Stay tuned.  Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 6-9 - SLOW DOWN IN SWELL.....

South swell fading tonight - 2-3ft at 13-14 seconds, dribbling in compared to the past couple days.  Hope you got some this week as it's going to get a bit weak over the next 5-7 days with minor south pulses and some minimal windswell.   We are suppose to see a tiny northwest swell at 2-3 ft at 15 seconds starting Saturday.   In fact the West Oregon Buoy is showing 5-6 ft at 14 seconds from the northwest - so there is a small pulse from that northern direction.  Northwest winds crank up tonight through the weekend, so if you live by a spot that likes some northwest wind swell you might have some better options through the period.  Winds let up briefly on Monday, then back on thereafter.   The nice run of winds and good waves behind us for a while.   Weather wise - looking and feeling very much like an El Niño summer - low pressure lurking about, muggy at times, but also still quite cool by June standards in CA.   In fact, El Niño is already starting to have an influence over the far West Pacific as two typhoons have now both recurved and tracked north and east into the Gulf of Alaska - in June - something you don't usually see until late summer/early fall.  It appears we might be heading for a very strong El Niño for the 2023/2024 Season.   Stay tuned.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 6-5 - WINDS EASE....

Northwest winds should leave us this week as low pressure currently off the So Cal/Central Cal Coast spins turning the winds counter clockwise or south to southeast for us.  Chance of showers will be hit and miss all week - mostly inland.  Fog is back and will stick around as long as the flow is south.   Windswell still in the water this AM - 8-9ft at 11 seconds from 320-330 - - really steep - and south swell in the water 2-3 ft at 15-17 seconds from 175.  Pulses of south swell all week as the wind swell takes a back seat (due to lack of high pressure gradient creating winds in the outer waters).    Northwest winds look to return by Friday but much lighter than last week - only 10-15 kts.   Cya in the water.    

UPDATED FORECAST - 5-29

Happy Memorial Day Weekend.   Old south is fading out while a new southwest swell is slowly filling in. So Cal buoys picking up on this energy - about 2-3 ft at 20 seconds.  Showing as far north as the SF Bar Buoy - picking up 4ft at 20 seconds from 200 plus deg.   Swell will get up towards Pt Arena overnight and should be hitting the entire coast by late Sunday morning.   North of Bodega lot of northwest windswell in the water - 7-8ft @9 sec from 315 plus.   Winds are mostly northwest over the outer waters and some nearshore waters - the winds will turn southeast again for Monday - 10-15 kts with stronger gusts as we get a southerly wind reversal - which will bring in even more fog for Monday morning - not like we haven't had enough as it is already.   Low pressure system is dropping down the State, kicking up thunderstorms over the interior & Sierra, some of these might make it to the Mendocino Coast late today.  Southwest swell looks to stick around through Wednesday right now.   Winds should veer back to the northwest Tuesday on.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 5-22

 Strong northwest winds have been blowing over the outer waters for the past 48 hours and will continue to do so for the next 48 hours.  As a result, wind swell has come up 9-14 ft at 8-10 seconds, biggest north of Bodega Bay.   Very steep angle due to the wind direction, 325 deg, so for tucked away spots very small surf will result.  Wind swell will peak in size Tuesday/Wednesday - 10-13 ft @11 seconds.   So it's something to ride.   South swell stays on the smaller side all week, but we will see pulses all week, building some into Thursday/Friday as a somewhat larger southeast swell builds in from about 195-200 deg.   Don't expect any of these souths to be like the last run - most likely staying around 2 ft with 17-20 sec period.   No real break all week in the winds until about Friday, and even then only forecast to drop to 10-15 knots.   Late Spring, it's all going as planned.   The only other change in the weather this week will be cooler temps region wide, as a low pressure system hangs out, chance of some showers in the mountains and ongoing fog.  No big warm up expected.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 5-17 - Solid run of south swell to continue

 Buoys showing deepwater around 3ft @17 which will continue today, heading up some tonight and tomorrow to 3-4@19-20 seconds!   Unfortunately northwest winds will crank back up with small craft advisory level winds for most of the Coast through the weekend.  Look for the south swell to stick around through the weekend, gradual fade of energy.    

UPDATED FORECAST 5-13, Gulf Swell, more South

 N Pac swell just showing at outer buoys - 7-8ft @14.   Mixed in some wind swell in the 7 sec range and south swell continuing at 2.9@14.   South fades some today before a new pulse of south swell starts to build in Sunday.   N Pac swell will gradually fade into Monday, but still decent on Sunday.   Winds light right now but will push strong from the northwest again later today.  It is Spring after all and it wouldn't be Nor Cal without a fresh northwest wind.   Hot inland today, seasonable at the coast.  Wind reversal tomorrow will start to slow the heat wave some, with light south winds building through the day, continuing into Monday.   Winds head back to the northwest by Tuesday.   South swell run looks to continue into next week as well.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 5-5, RUN OF SOUTHWEST SWELL

 Clean conditions to start the day in between late season storms.   New long period southwest swell is filling in - about 2ft at 18sec from 215.   Northwest swell from the past two days is fading at 4-5ft @13sec.  Look for the southwest swell to continue through weekend and into the first part of next week with long period wave heights staying around 2-3 ft.   Fairly light west to south winds today & tomorrow, then more southwest wind on Sunday turning northwest again on Tuesday - as we have a couple more small rain makers set to come through the region.   Rain later today, spreading south and then again on Monday.   South Pacific is for sure turning on so expect things to continue to pick up through the end of May.  Should see less activity from the N Pac, but given the energy out there and El Niño in development, would not be surprised by a few more very off season pulses of northwest swell.   Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 4-29 - FIRST SOUTH OF SEASON

 First run of south swells mid stream right now - long period swell 2-4ft at 17-19 seconds from 175-185.   Winds are light south, but light northwest above Bodega Bay.   Northwest winds will ramp up through the weekend and south swell will gradually fade towards Monday.  Before that, a large off season northwest swell will build in Sunday night - 8-10 ft at 16 seconds, swell continues Monday at 9-10ft at 14 seconds and still solid Tuesday at 8-10 ft, before a slow fade about Wednesday.  Winds may start to drop again by Monday/Tuesday - lot of variability right now with the wind forecast due to high pressure leaving the region being replaced by a low pressure system which will impact our weather most of next week with cooler temps and some bouts of very light rain forecast.   All n' all, plenty of waves, check the winds and cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST - APR 23

Appears that winter is finally over - strong northwest winds and meager swell the rule of late.  Some hope this coming week with a couple small northwest swells to overlap and then a fun size pulse of south swell for next weekend.  Early indications the south will feature deep water heights 2-3ft from around 200 deg.   Northwest swell Monday/Tuesday - 3-5 ft at 12-14 secs.   Strong northwest winds through about Thursday, then winds might lighten up some just in time to let the south work its way up the Coast.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST APRIL 16TH

 Small northwest swell filling in this afternoon - 5-6@14.   Winds aren't ideal, they will be better tomorrow for morning sessions.  Swell will thicken up a bit - 6@13 sec.   Incoming storm system will generate rain north of Sonoma County - none expected for the Bay Area.   Northwest swell picks up more on Tuesday - 10-12@13, 7-8 ft@12 on Wednesday - then fading the rest of the week.   Winds don't really look that bad until next Thursday when the northwest wind machine ramps up again.  It is spring after all! Something to ride at least - cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST - APRIL 9

Light winds, nice weather on tap today and tomorrow with inbound swell.   Starting to see that swell at the outer buoys this am - 9-10 ft @14 seconds.  Swell will roll in mid day north of Bodega Bay, by late afternoon/early evening Bay Area.   Winds should remain light all day, although Bay Area spots will see an onshore sea breeze pick up later afternoon.   Swell looks to stick around through Tuesday at 7-8 ft at 13 seconds.   Northwest winds will pick up Tuesday and look to blow through the extended as high pressure builds over the region.   Rain staying to the far north for now, while models hint at a very weak system by this time next week.   Spring has finally arrived, but I'd say expect on and off showers through the month of April as the pattern remains favorable and the high pressure bias we've seen over the past years is not as strong.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST - LATE MARCH

 Today and tomorrow will feature sunshine before the next weather system moves in for the weekend.   This upcoming storm won't be that strong, just more showers on and off Sat/Sun.   Beyond that the pattern stays unsettled into the first week in April and perhaps a bit more into the month before I'm starting to perhaps see a start to more spring like weather for CA.   Surf looks to stay pretty small with mixed swells from the northwest and some south swell.   Today the northwest is only around 5@11,  with trace of long period south from 180 degrees but probably not noticeable at 0.8 ft @20.  That south is forecast to get to 2@16 by Saturday.   NW winds today over the outer waters, might be lighter near shore.   Winds turn south tomorrow and Saturday as the next storm arrives - but remaining pretty light.   NW winds return behind the front Sunday, Monday and beyond with an uptick in northwest swell 6-8 ft by Monday.   Pretty much looking like spring time surf conditions/wave heights.   We might still see some swell from the N Pac as i  think the pattern will remain very active well into April and perhaps May as El Niño builds, but best to start keeping an eye on the S Pac now to see if we get some early season swells.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - MID MARCH

 Surf remains on the very small side through the weekend.   Light winds today, turning strong south/southeast tonight into Sunday as a storm system comes ashore bringing widespread rain from Santa Cruz to Pt Arena.   Surf is going to stay small through the weekend unfortunately and don't see much increase until mid week when a modest west swell fills in - likely only 7-9 ft, longer period on Wednesday.     North to northwest winds will increase behind the front next week and on and off rain showers seem possible, but no flooding issues.   Winter not done yet, but for sure looking and feeling like spring time surf.   Small wave gear for sure.   Cya in the water.   

MARCH

March 1 is usually the end of the "good" waves season for Nor Cal.   No different this March, but we do have XL surf today 9-12 ft @14 sec from 310-320 - steep angle due in most part to the long fetch of north/northwest wind behind this front currently hitting CA.   Overall the pattern stays wet with junky south to southwest to west winds through the next week.   Swell will trend down after Monday night, staying mid size through Thursday.   On and off rain in the forecast and if you read the NOAA forecasts the models are starting to hint at another series of AR (atmospheric river) events starting March 10/11.   La Niña is dead.  The Active MJO is flexing and the Pacific has more tricks ahead for us before we see the end of this epic winter season for weather.  So, there will be waves around - not ideal, but stuff to ride if you know where to look.  Cya in the water!  

UPDATED FORECAST FEB 25

 Impressive winter storm over the past few days dropped snow to the coast north of Pt Arena, folks skiing on Mt Tam and everywhere record snowfall totals for places not accustomed to seeing any snow at all.  The pattern that has set up out in the Pacific is conducive to a lot more weather into the first week of March and probably beyond - but will it also generate surf?  For the most part yes, but with steeper angled northwest swells due in part to low pressure being anchored further up in the NE Pacific.   We still have some residual swell from this past event at 8-10ft this am - with light winds nearshore.   Winds will pick up later today.   Winds do look highly variable the next 5-7 days with rain, passing fronts, strong south winds in advance at times and strong nw winds behind.   Swell looks to crank back up Monday 12-15 ft (larger north of Bodega) and Tuesday, fading some into Wednesday but still solid.  La Niña is gone and we  are headed to El Niño late year.   My sense reading the tea leaves, very wet spring to come with a lot of wind and a very warm summer ahead.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST FEB 16TH

 South winds blowing on most of the Coast today as a storm system is circulating just off the West Coast due to move south and inland starting Friday.   Minimal rain chances except along the immediate coastline as the main movement of the storm will be to the south.   New long period swell will build overnight 4-6 ft @ 19 seconds while an older northwest swell fades 3-4 @12 seconds.  Swell direction around 300 degrees.   Winds will shift strongly to the north through the holiday weekend - creating large windswell of 11-13ft by Monday/Tuesday.   Background, smaller northwest swells linger through the next five days or so.   These will all be longer period northwest swells.    Late next week, pattern could see a major shift out in the Pacific as the jetstream looks to get robust coming off Japan at 200kt - this should support storm development as well as a rainy pattern again potentially for CA.    La Niña has faded, we are in ENSO neutral now moving towards El Niño later this year (summer).   Will be interesting to see if we have a late winter run of weather and swell that holds into April and May.   All will be revealed over the next couple weeks!  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST FEB 6

 Windy start to the week, but things will settle down mid week as high pressure builds in.   AM sessions might see some offshore winds, especially around the Bay Area.   Swell jumped up overnight and is around 14ft @ 14 seconds from 300.   Bigger than forecast.   North winds blowing over the outer waters and near shore in spots along the coast.   Swell will gradually fade overnight but a new long period northwest swell will build in on Tuesday - peaking Tuesday PM/Wednesday AM at 8-9ft @16 seconds.   That swell fades Thursday and another builds in on Friday.   Lightest winds for midweek, but it will be a bit breezy everywhere.   Plenty of swell around, just have to know your spots.   Rain might come back into the picture next weekend.   Out around the 19th of Feb, things might get interesting with our weather as the jet stream organizes and gets charged by the Active MJO.    Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 1-26

Super clean conditions the past few days with today and tomorrow likely the best to come for a while as the pattern will shift back this weekend to low pressure driven - with a system dropping south out of BC over the weekend with strong winds, light rain and low elevation snow.   Current swell has dropped overnight - but still super fun size 7@14 seconds.  Winds are offshore.  Tonight - another smaller, long period swell from the west will build in - 2-4ft@21 seconds and build to 4-5ft @18 on Friday.   Northwest winds will be on the rise all day Friday and get quite strong over the weekend - especially north of Pt Reyes.  Swell will stay small size at 5@15 - with some larger wind swell building in all weekend.   It does look like we will transition back to a stormy pattern sometime in early February - not like the Mid January events - just regular winter weather for Nor Cal.   So get it today and maybe tomorrow, then you'll be back into less clean environs into next week.  Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 1-17

 Well, that was an interesting 10 days or so!   Storm track will send one more pulse our way on Wednesday and then high pressure builds in for the next 7-10 days.   Surf will stay on the larger side through the week with winds gradually changing over to north and northwest, cold mornings and seasonable afternoons.  After all this rain there should be some good sand bars up and down the coast at spots that normally don't feature a decent wave.   Winter is not even close to over and long term models show us with more wet weather through the season as La Niña is fading and we start to transition to El Niño late this year.  Should be an interesting time.   Check the winds this week, plenty of swell around.  Cya in the water.  

STORMAGGEDON......

 This is one big, dynamic storm system headed our way for tomorrow into Thursday.   Take this system seriously as it's going to pack a punch.  Besides long period storm surf along the lines of 22-25 ft at 17 seconds on Wednesday - heavy rain, big time winds, combined with all the recent rain and wet soils will really create some potential problems from the King Range south through Carmel.   Check the NWS links on my blog for Eureka and Monterey/SF.  As for surfing - I'm sure there will be a few spots going off and working, guess it depends on how eager you are to surf!    Rain and wind, big swell looks to continue through Mid January.  Winter is back in CA as La Niña exits the stage - thankfully.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST FOR NEW YEARS WEEKEND

Storm door is open and going to continue to dump rain on us through first week of January.  Swell has come down but still quite solid this am at 10ft @12 seconds.  Swell will drop further Friday to 7-9ft and then crank back up quickly Friday night into Saturday at 10-13ft at 15 seconds, building further Saturday at 12-14 ft at 14 seconds.  Swell direction through the period mostly west at 280 to 300 degrees.  Winds will go west to northwest strongly over the weekend with rain, heavy at times through Monday.   South to southwest winds the norm until Saturday night.  Spots that like south wind and northwest wind the call.   Plenty of swell around, tricky with all the wind, rain and swell.   Winter!   Happy New Year and cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-21 - HAPPY WINTER SOLSTICE!

 Another clean, but small morning - west swell around 2-4 ft at 14-15 seconds.  Winds are light northeast to east.   King Tides coming up this Friday and Saturday so plan your sessions accordingly!   We will see an increase in west swell tonight, 2-3 ft @19 seconds, filling in on Thursday to 4ft@17 seconds.   Bit more swell coming Friday as size gets up to 5-7ft at 14 seconds.   These smaller west swells mostly 270-280 degrees.   The next real swell starts Christmas Day - where we could see swell heights jump back into the 10-12ft range.   If you look at the long range models - all are now starting to lean into a very stormy post Christmas week into the first part of January - as the jet stream is going to do something it's not done in a few winters - consolidate all the way across the Pacific east to west - around 35north - with copious amounts of rain potentially as a atmospheric river sets up somewhere between N Cal and Oregon.   Certainly spots north of Sonoma have the potential to see a lot of weather, but Bay Area/Central Cal should get in on the action as well.   A lot of messy, large storm surf will probably result - so enjoy the next 3-5 days as winds will be relatively light with increasing swell.   We need the rain and high elevation snow so it's good to see on the horizon.  Happy Holidays and cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-12

XL northwest swell peaked overnight - around 17-18 ft with long periods at buoys north of Jenner.   Large, at times clean, swell roared in and is starting a gradual downward trend today but still solid this morning at 14ft @14 seconds.  Like many of the swells so far this season - fairly steep angle at 315 degrees which for SF will be shadowed some by Pt Reyes.   North of Pt Reyes, not as much.    The trend this week will be for declining swell - back into the fun zone with ideal winds setting up most of the week up and down the coast as high pressure/blocking high establishes itself over the region.  This will also shunt the storm track to the north through at least next weekend giving us no rain for the next 7 days.   It will be very cold all week, with light winds and water temps will remain on the chilly side.   Cya in the water!  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-2

 Back to back swells through about Monday will keep surf in the overhead to well overhead range.   Bigger north of Bodega Bay.  Tomorrow a new storm system comes in bringing rain and south winds to the region.   SW winds through Sunday turning west on Monday.  Not ideal.  Much lighter winds forecast from Tuesday on - but also not much swell either as we will be between systems and storm producing events in the N Pac.  I'm off next week - back on Dec 10, resume forecasts after.   Cya in the water!

THANKSGIVING FORECAST

Happy Thanksgiving.  Northwest swell left overs today 4-6 ft at 13 sec and some south in the water 2ft at 15.  Northwest swell direction about 295.  South 185.  Large long period west swell has been hitting the Papa Buoy since around 9pm last night.   Looks like it peaked around 20-23 ft at 17 sec - quite solid.  That is the swell for late tonight and Friday - which will equal double overhead and bigger waves at north/west facing beaches, reefs and points.  Winds pretty light today and tomorrow - then might pick up strongly though the weekend as a few weak weather systems move through the region as high pressure exits.  A week ago it looked like we might get a lot of rain and snow this coming week - but models have trended drier with each run.   Probably going to see some rain - especially north of the Bay Area - Sunday night into Monday and then again mid week.  Either way - plenty of surf on tap for the next 4-5 days.  Biggest wild card through the period will be wind direction.   Get some and cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 11-17

Mid size long period swell filling in today - 5-8ft at 15-16 seconds.  From around 295 deg.  Mostly clean conditions and small to mid size swell through Monday.   Bit of an uptick in winds tonight into Friday - might be offshore at the coast - light winds through weekend.   Could be transitioning back to a wet period early next week so get on it while we have this nice break in the weather.  Cya in the water.   

NEXT LARGE SWELL IN THE CUE....

Papa Buoy showing 15-16 ft with long periods this AM - (Oregon Buoy even bigger at 18-20 ft) this is the next swell set to come ashore late today/tonight and be in full force on Monday.   Storm door is open with rain, wind, mountain snow will to accompany the swell making for pretty challenging conditions from SF to the Oregon border.  Nooks and crannies might have some windows for the next few days as the XL swell looks to stick around.  Improving conditions around mid week with smaller swell and lighter winds.   Cya in the water!  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-27 - FIRST SIG NW SWELL OF SEASON TO COME

 Decent size northwest swell to continue for N Cal through the next five days or so until a bigger swell train moves in.   Early this AM swell is about 7 @12 Bay Area, closer to 9@12 north of Bodega.  Swell direction pretty steep angle at 315 deg.   Look for a new nw swell to come in on Friday at 6-8 ft @16 seconds, pushing up to 9-11ft at 15 sec on Saturday.   Remaining decent into Sunday at 7-9ft.   Biggest north of Bodega Bay.   Best winds look likely tomorrow with light nw flow, stronger winds again Sat through Monday - although AM winds might trend offshore nearshore.  Meanwhile, a large storm system in the Gulf of AK coming out of the Aleutians is pushing east and will stall over the weekend up near British Columbia.  At the same time a Pacific High will dive SE alongside it and the combo will push a very long, strong fetch of winds and 311 degree swell our way for late Monday into Tuesday.  This will likely be our first real swell of the season with deepwater swell heights on order 14-18ft - perhaps pushing 20ft north of Bodega Bay.  More on this late Sunday or Early Monday as things become clearer.   Weather wise, high pressure is lingering around us, but the overall trend out in the Pac is bias towards low pressure.  Eventually we should start to see some rain chances increase by early November - but the models have been hinting at a pattern change for two weeks now and the ridge of high pressure has remained tough.  Dust off the guns for next weeks swell.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-21 - STORM DOOR OPENS A BIT.....

 N PAC getting active and current swell will fade into the weekend.   Might get some rain north of Sonoma - biggest thing through the weekend will be the northwest winds - they're going to rage and kick up a pretty strong wind swell.  Northwest swell will stay medium size through the weekend - 4-7 ft - 11-12 sec stuff.  NOAA is showing a south swell - 2 ft at 18-20 seconds - but not sure I'm buying it to show much north of Santa Cruz due to the very strong headwinds it will run into coming up the coast.  Next week more weather on and off - and looking ahead seeing some potentially very large northwest swells to close out October.  Check back for details on that!   Should be plenty of waves around - just know your spots and check your winds!   Cya in the water!   

UPDATED FORECAST OCT 10TH

The week ahead stays on the small side with a few notables:

South swell will continue most of the week at 2-3ft at 17-18 seconds.  Fading Thursday.  

Northwest swell continues on the smaller side - look for an uptick Tuesday at 7-9 ft @9 sec, Wednesday 5-7ft @10 seconds - fading some into the weekend.   Bigger north, smaller Bay Area south.  

Winds are going to crank up today/tonight over the outer northern waters and southern outer waters - so look for some bump and janky conditions at breaks open to the wind/waves.  Wind should fade some into mid week, but then look to ratchet back up again by the weekend.   Nearshore winds might be lighter or trend offshore some mornings - since we do have a dry weather system heading into the Great Basin to give us some offshore flow - but it will be light.  Fire danger remains low, coast should still see fog and drizzle.   No change in the weather pattern or surf pattern until mid to later October when models are hinting at a pattern shift - hopefully this blocking high pressure will vacate the region.   We should start seeing some bigger fall waves later in October either way.   

Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 9-28

 Our first more significant northwest swell is hitting the outer buoys and will fill in overnight.  West Oregon buoy peaked around 3am at 19 ft 11 seconds.   Papa Buoy earlier at 19ft 13 seconds.  This is all from a storm system in the Gulf of Alaska that is now bringing some rain to parts of Oregon and far Northern CA (Crescent City).   Swell will peak Thursday/Friday at 8-10 ft @ 11-12 seconds.   Certainly enough to bring some winter spots to life for a time.  Winds are light today but unfortunately going to turn north to northwest strongly later today and last until Sunday.  It's officially Fall, so that means early season storms heading into the Great Basin and offshore/north winds behind it.   The usual set up and that's what we will have.   Spots that can handle that wind direction will be cleanest.  Swell will rapidly fall Saturday on.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 9-17 - FIRST NW SWELL ON THE WAY....

Early season storm door is open as the remnants of Typhoon Merbok about to make its presence known along the West Coast with rain, wind, mountain snow and swell.   Weather wise - rain will start far north overnight and spread throughout the Bay Area Sunday.   Heaviest rain will be in the north bay, probably 1-3 inches depending on location - lighter amounts further south you go but still pretty decent for a September rain event.   Winds will switch to south overnight and be quite strong Sunday into Monday - then lighter winds Tuesday/Wednesday.   We have two small souths in the water - one fading out today and another set to rise overnight - probably maxing out at 2ft 17-18 seconds.  Monday swell from the remnants of Typhoon Merbok start to show at 2-3 ft at 20 seconds from 308 deg.    Swell will be 3ft at 18 seconds Tuesday into Wednesday.   We will see a bump of northwest wind swell at the same time, shorter periods - 9-10 seconds - overall good northwest breaks will probably see waves head high and better at times - smaller the further south you go.   **Note, the typhoon swell was heavily shadowed by the Aleutians - so it will be quite lully at times.   That combined with the northwest wind swell, sw swell might make for some interesting conditions at a lot of breaks.   So, some exciting days ahead with the weather and waves!  Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST SEP 9

 Steep angled (330) larg-ish north wind swell making its way from north to south this morning - 9.3@11 seconds north of Bodega, smaller towards Bay Area, but size should increase through the morning.  Strong south swell is fading out today while a new swell overtakes and reinforced through the weekend.  This next series of south swell won't be as big as this last one - look for deepwater heights in the 2 to 2.5ft range - from 189-194.   No real storms on the horizon yet in the N Pac but keeping a watch.   Winds look strong from the northwest today especially northern outer waters - fading into the weekend with light winds forecast through Sunday.  Cya in the water.  

SEPTEMBER 1!

Welcome to the 2022/2023 surf season in Northern California.  You made it through!  While things aren't in full swing yet in the N Pac, watching the satellite feeds over the past couple weeks it's showing an active pattern already with low pressure systems swinging out of the Bering Sea into the Gulf.  In fact we've already had a few minor Gulf wind swells - with one in the water right now at 4ft @11 seconds, and another due in starting Saturday of a similar size.   Background south swells through the holiday weekend but on the smaller side - 2ft or so with the best of the group starting on Monday.   Northwest winds through the weekend strongest out waters - with the "heat dome" over us could see lighter winds nearshore each morning and late afternoon/early evening.  You've probably read or heard we are heading into a triple dip La Niña this fall/winter - right now that forecast is suppose to show La Niña fading out by December as we move to a state called ENSO Neutral - which means exactly what it says - which should be equal chances for normal rainfall/weather - or not!   We could really use a wet winter around the West, but without a clear El Niño signal anytime soon - unlikely to happen.   That said - for SF north - especially Sonoma County to the Oregon border - expect similar rainfall amounts to last season perhaps more.  That's it for now.  Cya in the water.  

SUMMERTIME

I'm taking the summer off and back with regular reports after September 1!  Cheers and have a great summer!   

NEW ZEALAND SOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND.....

 Decent run of south/southwest swell underway this week - hovering around 2ft at 17 seconds 215.   These swells originated to the east of NZ and moved north some which always increases the size of the swell inbound.   The bigger of the two swells due to arrive late week - probably overnight Thursday for long period forerunners and filling in through the day on Friday to 3ft at 17 seconds from 215.   Swell should stick around through the weekend.   Now for the winds - northwest gales continue today and will lighten up through the week and finally turning light north on Friday, then strongly out of the south over the weekend as we have a late season, very strong storm system that is due to hit Nor Cal over the weekend bringing rain, wind to areas mostly north of Santa Cruz.   So plenty to ride just gotta hit the right spots with the winds.   Cya in the water!  

THAT'S A WRAP ON THE N PAC FOR THE SEASON....S PAC BUSY.....

 N Pacific swell machine has shut down for the season - but windswell will remain the primary source of any kind of waves for the foreseeable future with high pressure in control and the gradient between that and low pressure over the Central Valley/Southwest creating brisk winds out over the ocean and very cold water temps.  Pt Arena showing water temp of 46.8 this am!  Chilly.   Southern Hemisphere is active and while there are no major south swells on the horizon we do have a long run of smaller south swell in the water now.  Swell will hover around 2ft at 17 seconds from 190 - gradually fading out by Sunday.   NW winds will blow quite hard for the next seven days and beyond - in fact probably just keep blowing until the fog bank sets up for summer or we get into September - ha.   So - seek out your protected wind spots that like south swell, grab a floaty board and you can ride.  Cya in the water.   

SOUTHERN HEMI AWAKE, NORTH PAC NOT DONE YET

Swell in the water from every direction right now - new southwest is 2.9@20 seconds and the northwest is holding well at 8@15 seconds.  Southwest direction is around 205 - NW is 295 - both pretty ideal directions for N Cal breaks.   Winds have trended south for the most part due to the low pressure systems brushing N Cal - with rain from the Sonoma County/Mendocino County line north to Oregon.  Heavier rain further north you go.  Looks for things to stay unsettled through about next Wednesday with on and off light bouts of showers.   Swell will remain in the water from both hemispheres for the most part - changing some day to day.  Winds will be highly variable depending on frontal passages and Northwest winds blowing behind each front.  So keep an eye on the winds, plenty of swell around and options abound.   Cya in the water.    

UPDATE FORECAST 4-21 - XL SWELL INBOUND

Last storm pulling through today and will clear out over the weekend.  For Bay Area and south - that might be it for a while - north will still see some chances of rain on and off into May.   Low pressure does appear to hang around the N Pac for a while - so we could end up having a wet May.   Some areas north of Bodega have seen upwards of 8 inches of rain since this storm cycle started earlier in April.   As for waves - XL swell just hitting the outer buoys - Mendocino is showing 10ft @18 seconds.  Papa Buoy looks to have peaked overnight at 24ft @16 sec.  Pretty solid for late April.   This new swell is pretty west - 288 deg and was supercharged by extratropical storm Malakas which traveled across the N Pac this week.   Look for south winds today changing to west on Friday and then going northwest over the weekend.  There will be decent swell through Monday at this point - just smaller each day.   Winds will more than likely be the issue - so check it.   Plenty of swell around however.  Cya in the water.  

APRIL - 4-2 UPDATED FORECAST

 No break from the northwest winds - water temps have dropped to 48 far north, low low 50s Bay Area to the south.  We do have some good size swell moving in early next week - it will peak Tuesday at 14-16 ft at 16 seconds - still some size Wednesday and fade more Thursday.   But those pesky north winds will not much give us much of a break - other than Monday.   The storm that created the incoming swell due to move over N Cal late Sunday into Monday morning.  Likely no rain south of Sonoma County - but wetter the further north you go.   After that - high pressure builds back in with a warm up - maybe a hint of rain next weekend - but nothing that is going to really help at this point.   Keeping an eye on the southern hemisphere - waiting for things to wake up down under.   Until then, enjoy this upcoming swell - might be the last one for a while.   Cya in the water.  

MARCH

March 1st is the traditional end to our "good" wave season as most of you know who have followed my blog for years as well as living and surfing in Nor Cal.   The days get longer, wind stronger and N Pac swells less reliable.   Not to say we can't have swell production well into April from the N Pac, but odds slowly decrease, especially this year, with a fading La Nina.   It does look like for the next week or so we will have some weather - including much needed rain - our current large west swell will continue to fade into midweek.   Issue will be the winds building out of the northwest through the week - getting quite strong by weeks end.  We will see another mid period Gulf swell build in tomorrow from 290-295 - peaking around 7@14 seconds, fading late Thursday.   Then wind swell will take over Friday into the weekend.  Because of ongoing storm activity in the N Pac - we could see more swells well into the first week of March and beyond - will update on those later this week.  So, plenty to ride, keep an eye on the winds.   Cya in the water!  

WINTER RETURNS.....UPDATED FORECAST 2-22

Cold system dropping south today is bringing light rain, low elevation snow and hail to Nor Cal.  Winds have been howling over the ocean for a few days now - ocean temps responding accordingly - Pt Arena Buoy is 49 deg and dropping.  SF Buoy, low 50s.   It's going to get quite cold the next few nights and as we head towards March the pattern looks to remain unsettled.   High pressure, which has been camped out for almost two full months in and around the west coast is building back in, but will retreat some to the west as we head into March allowing for some storms to dive in on the back side - like October/December, however these storms will have less moisture to work with.  That said, we will take anything we can get.   Swell production wise - the N Pac is active and we will start to see progressively larger swell trains as we head into the weekend and following week.   Forerunners of this coming weekend swell will run in Friday night - 2ft at 24 seconds to start!  Saturday should start out 7-9 ft, long periods with swell maxing on Sunday at 10-12ft, long periods.   Winds look to drop off briefly Friday, but ramp back up Saturday from the south 15-20 kts, and Sunday, 10-15 kts from the south as we have a chance of rain starting Saturday.   Upshot, lot of weather in our forecast along with swell.  Should be stuff to ride if you know where to look!  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - FEB 11

 Small west swells to move through the waters and light winds until Monday.   A storm system will drop down the west coast Monday into Tuesday - northwest winds will increase strongly behind front passage and last through mid week at least.  Meager amounts of rain down to about the Mendo/Sonoma County line is all we will squeeze out of this one.  High pressure builds back in behind it - at least until next weekend and then we might see the pattern change the models have been hinting at for 4-6 weeks now.  Should see some big wind swell Monday and Tuesday, larger long period northwest swell looks to roll in next Wednesday.  Overall, waves around, might favor the beach breaks this weekend with the smaller size.  Cya in the water. 

FEBRUARY IS THE NEW APRIL

Well, it sure looks like spring time even though Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow which means six more weeks of winter.  No rain in sight through Mid Feb.   Long term predictions still show some sign of hope later in the month - lets hope those models are right.  Otherwise we are about to enter the 2nd driest period on record over the course of a winter.  The driest?  1976 drought induced winter.   Otherwise - we have a lot of wind, lot of wind swell and cold water as the temps are dropping fast.   There are some small nw swells moving through the waters this week, but hardly noticeable due to the dominant wind swell.  You can probably find some places to ride that are sheltered from the nw wind and like big steep wind swell.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 1-14

 Quick note that the California Buoy is back in place and reporting again.  This is a good intermediate buoy between the Papa Buoy and our offshore buoys to get a good sense of incoming swell trains and swell decay.   The large swell of the past week is fading some today, but still solid up north (11ft @11-12 sec), smaller SF Area to Santa Cruz.   Swell will hold today and a new west swell will run in under starting at 2ft@21 seconds.   Strong north winds over the outer waters will fade tonight and the weekend looks really nice with fun size north and west swells 7-9 ft at 14 sec and 2-3 at 16 sec.  Direction about 295 to 305.  MLK Day looks smaller and still very clean with the winds.  No rain in sight until end of Jan as we are locked down under high pressure again.   There are signs as we move into February the pattern will change again and may remain stormy well into March.   So enjoy the nice run of weather and swells from far away storms.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 12-20

Stormy week ahead as low pressure sits offshore and spins waves of rain through CA.   Very strong south to southeast winds look like the rule through mid week - then changing to west winds on Thursday and Friday.   Look for good size south wind swell to develop starting today - mixed in with periods of longer period northwest swell through the week.  Things may clean up some towards Christmas - until then if you have a spot that likes south winds and south wind swell - that's your call.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-7

Storm door has opened again after a long dry spell.  Series of fronts will push through well into next week with the strongest storm looking like it will happen late in the weekend into Monday.   Swell looks to stay quite small actually until Thursday/Friday when a new northwest swell train starts to hit the Coast, look for deepwater heights on Friday of 10-12 ft.  We will see a lot of wind with these next few systems, cold winds from the northwest and cold temps later in the week - in other words - Winter in Nor Cal!  Spots with some protection from the wind will be the best bet.   Looking ahead into Mid December the N Pac is going to stay active and we will likely see an increase in larger swells to follow.   More on that to come.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 11-19

New mid period swell slowly filling in today - 8-10ft at 11-13 seconds.  Winds have switched to the north with the passage of the low pressure system that came through.   Look for north winds on Saturday, switching to northeast Sunday.   Swell will come down a notch Saturday - 7-9ft, and drop further on Sunday, 6-8ft.   Swell looks to stay fairly tame into the start of Thanksgiving week - and light winds at least on Monday.  Winds and swell might tick up some on Tuesday.    High pressure should maintain control of our weather pattern through next weekend.  Signs of a stronger storm track on the horizon for early December when the pattern might start to get stormy again.   Until then, fun size surf to ride - check the winds.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 11-8

 Incoming storm tonight will drop copious amounts of rain through tomorrow and then we will dry out for a while as high pressure builds.   Swell is only 7-8ft at 12 seconds.   Winds will pick up strong out of the southeast as the day goes on and get very strong tonight.   Looking for swell to stay in the 9ft plus zone through Wednesday, then slow fade into Friday getting fairly small by then (4-6ft).   Variable winds the next few days, southeast to west - then turning north as we head into the weekend.  So, surf around if you know where to look with the changing winds.   Cya in the water. 

40 ft at 16 seconds!

Papa Buoy is showing 40ft at 16 seconds - let that sink in for a bit.   That is in vicinity of where our current storm is bottoming out (or bomb cyclone) as the forecasters like to call it - when the pressure drops  24 millibars in 24 hours, which our current storm almost doubled that!   Anyway - that's the swell inbound for tonight and as we start the week.  Not that surfing conditions our ideal - it's a mess out there and probably crazy to drive anywhere on the Coast.   Give it a few days as high pressure looks to re build mid week.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-23 - BIG AND STORMY

 Super charged N Pac Jetstream is sending a wave of early season storms to the West Coast.  La Nina is back for year two, but because it's displaced further West this season, the storm track is riding up and over and delivering much needed rain and snow to CA.  It's also delivering XXL surf, south winds and slop.  The next giant swell train lands Sunday night - 18-20ft at 18 seconds with SW winds and an atmospheric river (AR) event, first decent one of the season and best we've seen in a long while - that will deliver copious amounts of rain to the entire region.   Swell will max out Monday - 23-25ft at 18 seconds!  Slow fade into mid week when high pressure finally builds in giving us a break.   Next Wednesday might be the first surf day for many (most likely for me) when we get north winds and more mortal size surf in the 9-11 ft range.  Until then, there are some spots that will harness this kind of size and swell if you know where to look.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-11

It's windy and raw over the open ocean this morning as north to northwest winds drive down CA along with a dry "inside slider" cold front.   Ocean has responded and wind swell has jacked up 10ft plus and water temps are tumbling far north - already back to 52 and falling.   Look for big wind swell and some northwest swell mixed in all week - not clean unless you hit a south facing point that can handle the wind and sort out of the confusion.  Not really seeing any break in the winds the entire week, no rain in sight either as high pressure maintains control over CA.   Cya in the water.   

BIG NORTHWEST SWELL AND WIND

 Northern Buoys reading 14ft @14 from 310.  Swell is peaking tonight and will begin a slow fade into the weekend.   Unfortunately northwest winds have come in behind the front that departed yesterday and look to stick around most of the week.  Plenty of swell to ride, just need to find shelter from the winds.  Water temps have been warm but may begin to drop with the non stop winds over the outer waters.  Cya in the water.  

N Pac Awakes

 Solid Gulf of Alaska swell in the water today, built in overnight.  Running 6-10 ft from 310 (steep angle) at 14 seconds, larger north of the Sonoma Coast.  Winds are north to offshore.   Winds may not be much of a factor the next two days and then transition to more onshore - then back to north or offshore into the weekend.  Warm temps all the way to the Coast.  Fall.   Swell should stick around a good chunk of the week.  Cya in the water. 

GOOD RUN OF SOUTH SWELL COMING UP, GULF SWELL TOO....

 Proverbial calm before the storm.  Significant south swell trains inbound starting late Saturday and lasting through most of next week.   The first pulse late Saturday will start at 1.5ft at 20 sec from 200, building more on Sunday while a second pulse builds in on top at 2ft 19 seconds from 195.   At the same time, a small Gulf swell will run in Sunday to Monday - about 4ft at 12-13 seconds from 310.   Small, but fun.   Monday into Tuesday, third pulse of southern hemi builds at 2ft at 21 sec from 185.  Swell should gradually fade mid week on but still feature plenty to ride.  Winds will probably stay out of the northwest, but may also blow south to southwest depending on fog development through the period.  Northwest winds will be strongest over the outer waters.  Probably be some windows of decent conditions especially at certain spots up and down the Coast.   N Pac will stir more over the weekend into next week, fall pattern trying to set up shop.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - SOUTH SWELLS AND SOME GULF ACTION

 New south swell is peaking today and tomorrow - running around 2ft at 18 from 190.  We also have an early season Gulf of Alaska wind swell in from a small storm that ran under the Aleutians late last week.  It's 3-6 ft at 11 seconds (bigger north of Bodega) from 310.  Winds are mostly light south/southeast.   South swell will fade out tomorrow, wind swell to continue and period to drop as well.   Winds should stay pretty decent throughout the upcoming week - stronger northwest winds outer waters, variable winds near shore depending on fog coverage.   N Pac is trying to get started, but no significant swell makers yet.   Cya in the water.  

SEPTEMBER!

 Welcome to the 2021/2022 season.   Made it through another summer.   Not much on the charts unfortunately - consistent wind swell will provide something to ride at least, with a series of smaller south swells looking likely this coming weekend and beyond - but far from epic.  Keeping an eye on the N Pac for more signs of life and will update as needed.  Let's hope we have a calm fall around here fire wise - we have enough damage being done in the Sierra.    Cya in the water.  

September looms.....

Mid August.   The last couple weeks of summer upon us.  Not really much going on this week but starting to keep an eye on the N Pac where the jet stream is showing signs of life.  It does appear that we might have some early season energy coming from that direction in the next week or so.   Until then, very small southwest swells due in later this week - Friday to Monday - but really just dribbles.   Winds not bad, the thick blanket of fog - more normal fog coverage for summer in Nor Cal - is keeping light south to southwest winds along the coast.  Will update when i  see more action from the Gulf of Alaska and resume regular updates in September.  Cya in the water.  

SOLID NZ SOUTH

 New run of south swell in the water with the main event hitting today and tomorrow.  Swell is from a strong storm that was down near New Zealand, usually a pretty favorable location for us with swell direction 185-195.   Seeing some 3ft at 20 sec energy as the swell overtakes the early south swell that is still showing with energy at 2-3 ft at 15 seconds.   NZ swell will take over today and peak tomorrow at 3ft at 17 seconds.  Still decent on Wednesday and then fade out Thursday.  Fog is in, winds are light south to southeast for the next few days at the coast.  Winds will switch NE to NW mid week and beyond, yet remain pretty light in the 5-15kts range.  Go surf.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - South Swell run

 Decent run of south swell underway which might last until the end of the month.  Storm activity Down Under has been quite strong the past week and forecast to continue.  Current group of swells will run through Sunday and beyond with the two larger swells starting late Friday and again on Sunday.   We should see decent deepwater numbers in the 2-4ft range 17-19 seconds, 195-205 deg.   Fog has returned, so winds have been light south and should keep that way for a few days.   Models are forecasting north to northwest winds to increase into the weekend, but think that will be over the outer waters, nearshore may remain under the influence of south winds and fog.  Keep an eye on it.   Plenty to ride.   Cya in the water. 

Run of South Swell....

Modest run of southerly/southwest swells ramps up today and should continue into the next week.  Deepwater swell readings this am showing swell 2-2.5 ft at 17 seconds from 205-210.  Today should be the peak of this first swell, fading some into tomorrow while more storms are lining up in the South Pac and will send energy in our direction.   Winds don't look that bad for April, light/variable to light northwest the next few days.  May pick up a bit over the outer waters over the weekend.  Water temps remain very cold - low 50s to upper 40s (far north).   Get some.  Cya in the water. 

Buoys are back online!

 Looks like our buoys have come back online - whatever technical issue resolved.   Not sure about you but I  felt lost without them.....

**BUOYS ARE ALL OFFLINE....

 It appears NOAA is having some issues with their buoy stations - Russian hack maybe?  Ha.  

Use the CDIP Buoys link on the right side of the page under the Forecast Links banner.   Cya in the water.  

MARCH LOOMS....

Already feels like spring and certainly the northwest winds over the ocean spell doom for good waves at most breaks.   Sadly, March 1 is Monday and the traditional end to the "good" wave season in Nor Cal.   Was an interesting winter to stay the least.   I'll keep after reports through the spring and summer when conditions warrant - like a good run of south swell or light winds.   Otherwise - more regular reports will return September 1.   La Nina looks to fade over the summer so hopefully we will have a bit more storm activity next year and less wind.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 2-19

 Yo yo!  Sorry for the long lag between updates!  Surf has been fun the past day, off season long period southwest swell gracing our shores combined with a fun size west swell.   Southwest is around 2ft @16 today, West swell is around 4-6 @13.   Winds are light north to northwest at the moment - will probably ramp up a bit more from the northwest as the day goes on.   Look for an increase in north winds over the next few days as high pressure builds and the storm track heads to the north.  Large NW swell tomorrow - 12 to 14 ft at 13 seconds as south fades.   Size quickly drops Sunday, 7-9 ft at 12 and then ramps back up for Monday to Tuesday at 8-10ft.   Really strong winds Monday and Tuesday from the north - strongest outer waters and north of Bodega Bay.   So plenty to ride, check your winds.  Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 2-2

 Fairly mellow week ahead compared to the past few weeks.  Swell is 8@14 sec this morning with southwest to west winds.   Storm from yesterday will continue to pass through the area.   Another shot of rain comes in Wednesday - strongest north of Sonoma, along with northwest winds which will then remain fairly strong until Friday.   Swell will linger in the 5-8 ft range through Friday.   Winds Thursday and Friday might be offshore for AM sessions around the Bay Area, but check first.   Cya in the water.  

ONE MORE LARGE SWELL MID WEEK....

Giant swell from yesterday winding down this morning but still quite solid - 11@15 seconds.  That swell had a peak wave recorded at the SE Papa Buoy  of over 40ft at 18 seconds two nights back.   Tuesday looking for rain and south winds north of Sonoma County (may get rain northwest Sonoma and for sure all of Mendo) and new swell at 10-12 ft @21 seconds.  That swell will peak Wednesday at 13-15 ft @17 seconds.   Swell direction 298-300.  Smallest day in a while looks to be Thursday at 7-9ft, increasing again by Friday.   The N Pac remains active so we do have more large swells on the horizon for mid month and beyond.  Winds will trend south first part of the week due to CA proximity to an atmospheric river hitting Oregon and far N Cal - then switch northwest mid week and beyond - but these will be mostly outer water winds, actual winds near the coast could trend north to northeast (offshore) especially for Bay Area later in the week with high pressure in control.   Plenty to ride, even some manageable days this week for us mortals.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED HOLIDAY FORECAST

Staying pretty large this week as rain and swell roll throughout CA.   We are on the downside of a fairly large northwest swell running at 10ft 15 sec from 290 deg with northeast winds for offshore conditions at most spots.  Swell will wind down just a touch tomorrow - but staying around 9-10 ft at 13 seconds.  Wednesday, the next large swell builds at 8-10ft at 21 seconds - peaking Thursday at 15-17ft from 295 to 305 degrees.  Note all these swells largest north of Pt Reyes, especially the mid week swell which will be shadowed a bit by Pt Reyes and the Farallon Islands.  Mid week swell will do a slow fade into the New Years weekend but stay on the larger side through the period.   Winds are going to be highly variable as we have brief breaks of high pressure and systems coming ashore - so look for south winds as front approaches and north to northwest winds as front passes.  Could see some light offshore winds for AM sessions.   Next chance of rain is mostly North Bay mid week, followed by another storm late week and late weekend.  So the pattern is pretty progressive.  Stay safe out there, wear a mask and cya in the water.  

STAYING BIG.....

 N Pac keeps pumping out swell - new swell filled in overnight and is peaking today at around 12-15ft @17 seconds from 305.  Quite solid.  Winds aren't bad in the Bay Area, but rain and south wind the rule north of Bodega Bay spreading south through Wednesday night.   Swell will start to fade some on Thursday - 10-12 ft as period drops to 13 sec.   By Friday, new long period forerunners of our next swell show at 6-8ft at 18 seconds, while the old swell sticks around at 9-11 ft.   Saturday/Sunday should feature high pressure, lighter winds, surf both days around 8-10 ft.   So plenty to ride - after the rain today/tonight - high pressure looks to build in for the rest of the week.   Might see an uptick in northwest winds Thursday/Friday.   Be safe out there, cya in the water.   

PUMPING....

 Current swell is 12-14 ft at 17 seconds - mix of wind conditions depending on where you are.   For the most part north to northeast winds.   Swell will gradually fade overnight and be around on Wednesday as a new, even longer period swell starts to run in.   That swell will have early forerunners 2-4 ft at 23 seconds - quickly building to 6-8 ft at 22 seconds Wednesday evening.   Thursday will be large - 11-13 ft at 20 seconds and then being a slow fade into Friday and next weekend.   Swell direction around 290-308 degrees.  All n all winds don't look that bad the rest of the week with high pressure firmly in control.  No rain in sight through at least mid December.  Plenty of surf on tap - cya in the water. 

CLEAN CONDITIONS...TRACKING XL SWELL FOR THANKSGIVING

Super clean this weekend with mid period northwest swell around 5-6 ft at 12-13 seconds.  East winds.  High pressure in control for the next week with the storm track along the Oregon border.   Look for an uptick in size for Sunday - 6-7 ft and bigger still for Monday at 9-11ft - then all eyes on mid week as models are forecasting a very large swell to impact our waters around Wednesday.   Early indications are for deepwater swell in the 18ft range north of Bodega Bay, probably 14-16ft around the Bay Area.   With north winds through next week AM sessions should feature clean conditions, while PM sessions will see more wind, maybe onshore at times.   Overall, plenty to ride.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - XL SWELL CONTINUES....

XL swell continues today - but down from yesterday's peak at 20 ft @14 seconds!   It's running 12-14 ft at 13 seconds today from 325.  Strong north to northwest winds making a mess of everything except for spots sheltered from the nw winds.  Swell will begin to fade tonight and more so on Monday, dropping to 9-11 ft and then additional fade through Thursday but still staying rideable in the 5-7ft range.   Winds will back down some tomorrow but still be gusty, fade more Tuesday into Thursday.   Storm door looks to open more next weekend and into Mid Nov - with much higher amounts of rain now forecast - so may have a period of junky storm surf with south winds next week.   Until then, plenty to ride.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - HALLOWEEN

 Waiting on the next swell train(s) to arrive which will happen tomorrow.  Today should feature mostly short period junky wind swell and probably some north to northwest winds with it.  Winds lighter near shore this morning, so if you had to get wet - now would be the time.  Sunday will start out slow again and then look for early forerunners in the afternoon (mostly Sonoma Coast north), evening Bay Area, around 3-5ft at 23 seconds.  Swell will quickly build Sunday night, period drops and Monday should see northwest swell about 5-7 ft at 18 seconds.   At the same time there is a long period south swell due to show at 2ft @20 seconds.  After today, winds look decent until Wednesday.  Swells should begin to fade on Tuesday but the northwest swell might linger.  N swell direction around 300, S swell around 188.  So should be a nice run of clean long period swells, nothing huge, fun size.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-16

Hope you like the blog refresh - long overdue for an update.   Nice fall day across the area with east winds, warm temps - mid period northwest swell in the water - about 5-6 ft at 11 seconds, steep angle at 325 deg.  North winds going to remain in the picture for at least the next seven days as high pressure remains locked over CA.   Storm track is not very active, but the winds and distant storms enough to keep mid period swells around 10-11 sec coming in.   Maybe an uptick Saturday, but otherwise should stay around 4-6 ft through the period.  Background south swells in the picture as well - nothing over 2ft, but longer periods 14-18 seconds through Monday.   Winds will be better for morning sessions, bit more onshore flow for pm sessions.  Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST - MORE SWELL FOR A FEW DAYS....

Sorry about the lack of updates - surfing too much!  Hope you got some over the past week as northwest and southwest swells crossed our shores.  We are starting to see the arrival of swell from Hurricane Marie, which should max out tomorrow through Wednesday at 3-4 ft at 13 seconds (deepwater) from 180.   We also have a northwest Gulf swell in the water at 6ft at 13 seconds from 290.   Marie swell will show late and into overnight and be more present Monday - especially in the Bay Area.  Gulf swell will slowly fade through Wednesday.  Winds look fairly typical for October - light northeast to northwest.   As we head into next weekend looks like a major pattern change will begin to take place giving us badly needed and first rainfall of the season as a low pressure system drops across the West Coast entraining remnants from Hurricane Marie in the process.   Winds should pick up strong from the south late week.   N Pac is going to stay active so look for more swell into October.  Cya in the water. 

FIRST BIG NW SWELL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

 Tracking a big storm system with a dynamic fetch moving out of the Bering Sea and into the Gulf of Alaska this morning.  Dynamic fetch means the storm wind & swell are moving in the same direction which usually leads to large wave heights.  Models are forecasting deepwater swell of 14ft at 15 seconds starting Thursday.   Still a bit early, but will dial in more closely over the next 48 hours.  I've added a new buoy to the forecast links - Gulf of Alaska Buoy.   Note that West Oregon and Papa Buoys remain offline and need to be repositioned by NOAA once they are back on the schedule.  That means the CA Buoy will be our outer water buoy for the start to the season.   The Gulf of AK buoy will give a sense of ocean swell far out in the N Pac.  Generally small swell until mid week - perhaps a slight increase in wind swell over the next few days and very small south in the background.  Winds look variable depending on fog intrusion and ongoing high pressure vs low pressure in our region.   Southwest to northwest depending on your location.   

UPDATED FORECAST SEPT 15

 New mid period Gulf of AK swell filling in slowly this am - buoys are showing 4-6ft at 11 seconds of deepwater swell.  This one will peak overnight and begin a slow fade through the week.  Winds look to remain mostly light through the week - don't see an uptick until the weekend with offshore and/or northwest flow gets going as low pressure moves into the Great Basin and we get those winds rushing from low pressure to high pressure.  Gonna stay sort of small all week.  Starting to see more signs of N Pac swell late in September as well as tracking a few more southwest swells.  We may close out the month with some decent surf.  More to come on that.  Cya in the water.  

SEPTEMBER!

We made it through another Nor Cal summer.  Certainly a summer like none before.   On cue, we have our first small northwest swell due in here mid week - deepwater swell 4-6 at 15 seconds from 310 starting Wednesday night, peaking Thursday at 4-6 ft at 13 seconds.  Background south swells through the week around two feet.   Winds look to remain light south to northwest on and off through the week - may strengthen out of the northwest for the weekend.   Cya in the water.  

SEPTEMBER LOOMS....

 Hope everyone is safe and experienced no loss due to the fires that continue to burn across Nor Cal.   The weather over the past few days has helped immensely and firefighters are getting containment lines around most of the major blazes.  Surf wise, as we move close to September keeping an eye on the Nor Pac for signs of life.   Nothing on the maps yet, just northwest winds and larger wind swell for the rest of the week.   Small south swell is in the water but mostly lost under the dominant wind and steep wind swell.  It does appear likely we are moving into La Nina this year - which does not bode well for rain production or a lot of major swells.   Think we might see an early season of rain, especially north of Sonoma County, but as we move well into fall and winter forecasts call for normal to below normal amounts.   Since La Nina winters tend to be drier and colder, we could see more clean days, smaller to mid size surf.   Like all of you, will have to see how things unfold.  I'll update as we move into September.  Until then, be safe and I'll cya in the water.  

FOG-AUGUST - Updated Forecast

Tiny signs of hope for some swell late this weekend into early next week from the south.   Swell is radiating north from a storm that was down in the southeast Pacific late July into early August.  Expect arrival late on Sunday with deep water swell tiny but long period - 1-2 at 20 seconds from 183.   Swell will build and peak Monday at 2-2.6ft at 17-18 seconds and then she is gone.  Could see a couple more storms form and send swell our way for Mid August - just a model hope right now, if the storms behave as forecast they will get going starting this Friday through the weekend.   Will monitor.   Models also hinting at a Gulf of Alaska low pressure system starting tomorrow into Friday, that could potentially send swell our way.  Did notice a surface low pressure this morning forming in the Gulf so we might get some early season action from northeast Pacific in a few days.  Will also monitor.  Otherwise, look for north to northwest winds and fog to remain strong through the week - could see winds ease this weekend.   Cya in the water.   

END OF JULY

Basically wind swell and small background south swells for the foreseeable future.   Ocean has warmed up with all the south wind and fog - mid to upper 50s most spots.   Look for fog and south to southwest flow to continue through end of the week.  Models are hinting at stronger northwest winds starting up again by the weekend - but not sure i'm buying into it.  The marine layer is pretty established so we may continue to see fog and south winds for a while.   Keep an eye on it.  If the northwest winds get going as forecast, might see an uptick in wind swell at least - but could also trash conditions.  Looking into the future - might see some southern hemisphere swell getting into 2nd week of August/mid August as storm activity picks up down south.  Looking more and more like fall and winter will be under the influence of a mild La Nina or neutral pattern.   That may have an impact on swell production in terms of size, but potentially nicer days condition wise.  These winters typically lean towards equal chance of normal or below normal precipitation, which isn't ideal given the dry winter past.   Have to see how it plays out.  In the meantime - small surf, lighter winds, favors the beach breaks that like south wind.  Cya in the water.  

July doldrums.....

Wind swell is about all we have right now for any kind of wave to ride.  It's around 4-7 ft at 9-11 seconds depending on location - bigger northern part of the state.   Winds aren't bad today, blowing out of the northeast but will head back to the northwest/north direction tonight for points north of Jenner, might stay south to southwest for points south.  No sign of any southern hemisphere ground swell.   La Nina appears to be taking hold along the equator pushing east to west, which doesn't bode well for storm and swell production this coming fall.  Have to wait and see how it develops.  We could be looking at another fairly dry winter which is something we don't need.   La Nina winters tend to feature nicer weather for surfing, but less frequency of swells and size.  Water temps remain cool to the north, low 50s and mid 50s to even some low 60s SF south.   Hang in there, only another month and some change until September 1, the traditional start to the good surf season in Nor Cal.   Cya in the water.  

GOOD SIZE SOUTH SWELL PUSHING IN LATE TONIGHT

Just in time for all the beaches to shut down from LA to Sonoma, solid south swell will be pushing in starting late tonight and lasting through Sunday.   Still have a decent pulse of the old south in the water this morning - 2-2.5ft at 17 from 190.  Some steep angled north wind swell at 6@10sec from 320.   Winds have shifted mostly south along the coast.   Late tonight early forerunners will be 2ft at 22 seconds, filling in Friday at 2-3 at 21 seconds.   Saturday, period drops and size should actually increase - 3-4ft at 18 seconds.   Swell direction about 192-195.   Winds should turn northwest for late week and into the weekend - but perhaps not as strong as earlier this week.   Could see this fluctuate with the marine layer established and south flow near the coast.   Check in the winds, plenty of swell to ride.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - WINDY!

June in Nor Cal.  Wind and more wind.  We might see a big increase in the size of the wind swell the next couple days - especially north of Bodega Bay.   Also tracking a couple small south to south east swells to come in late week, on the small side, 2ft or so, but long periods.  Might be enough for south facing spots to have some fun waves if the swell trains don't get hammered coming in against the northwest winds.  Get what you can, long way to go until Fall.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - END OF MAY IS ACTIVE

While northwest winds have been savage, looking towards tomorrow into the weekend, they will begin to shift east to south as a low pressure system approaches the CA Coast bringing a chance of thunderstorms and rain on and off through late Saturday.   We have two new south swells building today - one from 200 deg and the other from 188.   The second, steeper swell looks potentially pretty fun with deepwater swell forecast at 3ft plus with long periods initially at 19-20 seconds Friday dropping into Saturday.   The more "west" south, a touch smaller but long periods from Thursday to Friday.   At the same time, very active North Pacific is sending a pulse of northwest swell from 298 deg, building late Friday and fading into Sunday.   That swell will be biggest north, 6-8 ft at 14 seconds Friday into Saturday.   Northwest winds will return by Sunday.   More action from the southern hemisphere looks to continue into the first week of June.  Plenty of surf on tap, some weather,  better winds.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - 5-16

Another late season storm system will come onshore later today with rain and south wind into Monday.   Long period south swell is not showing at buoys yet, but is forecast to build later today starting at 2ft 21 seconds.  From the looks of it, very late.  South sticks around and fills in tomorrow, while at the same time the first of a series of west swells also builds.   The first, will come in around 5 ft at 14-15 seconds, the second, 5ft at 11 seconds.  Both west swells from around 295 degrees.   The south from 200-204 deg. Winds are probably gonna be the lightest today from the south.  Switching to southwest to west tomorrow and Monday.  Then back to typical northwest flow.   So, plenty to ride, winds might make it tricky.  Be safe and make sure to stay at least six feet from others when outside.  Cya in the water.

BACK AT IT - UPDATED FORECAST

Hope everyone is safe and sane.  As a few more places to surf are coming online, felt it was a good time to start updating again.  We do have a pretty decent south/southeast swell headed our way, in the water and moving north.   Probably see some early forerunners very late Friday (and possibly overnight) and then starting to fill in Saturday at 2-3ft at 19 seconds - from about 195.  Swell will fill in more Sunday and Monday with deep water heights pushing 3-4 feet at 15-18 seconds.  So could be quite solid.  Winds actually will start to wind down some headed into the weekend - light northwest on Saturday, changing to light southwest for Sunday and south on Monday.  Southern wind shifts as a result of a pretty impressive late season storm that will come onshore Monday into Wednesday with a decent soaking rain region wide - especially North Bay and points north.  Have a persistent northwest swell hanging around through the period - 5-8 feet (bigger north) at 11-13 seconds.   So plenty to ride, check you winds and be safe out there.  Cya in the water.

NO SURF FOR YOU

Well, good luck surfing as most Bay Area Counties and elsewhere have closed the beaches.   At least it's Spring, can't expect very good surf for the foreseeable future as it is.   If you can walk or ride a bike to the beach, it would appear you're ok.   Just practice social distancing and use your head.   You may notice a lot of the offshore buoys are offline or not reporting.   Seems like the system is falling into disrepair - hoping that NOAA fixes and has everything back up before next Fall.   Stay safe and hang in there.   I'm taking a hiatus from reports until we get the all clear.  

MARCH

And just like that, the winter surfing season is about done - or is it? The N Pac still shows some signs of life at least through mid month and then after that - we will likely be fully into Spring.  Relentless north winds are going to keep blowing until at least tonight, and then gradually release their hold on us through the end of the week with a definitive shift in the wind direction to the south and southeast as a Gulf of AK low pressure systems sets it's course towards us.  Not much rain expected sadly, but we might see some from late Friday through Saturday.  Couple of mid period northwest swells will move through the waters - one today, 8-9ft at 14 seconds and another Friday at 9-11 at 15 seconds (deep water).   Southern hemisphere swells look to pick up towards mid month as well, since the S Pac has been very active as they start into Fall Down Under and we transition to Spring.  So plenty of swell around and lighter winds for a change.  Cya in the water.

SPRING? UPDATED FORECAST 2-19

High pressure in control and a month without rain.  Looking like this February will go down as the driest on record unless we get some precipitation between now and the end of month.  Surf conditions aren't much better - small waves, spring time winds, especially north of Bay Area.   We should see a few days of lighter winds starting today and tomorrow but then they will ramp back up Friday into the weekend.  Small swell today, 3-4 at 9-13 seconds - couple of swells in the water, wind swell and a very small northwest.  Similar size tomorrow, with perhaps a very small southwest joining in to remind us that season is around the corner - 2ft @15 seconds or so.  Northwest swell will increase Friday into the weekend - so might have more size by then - but the winds will remain.   Very small chance of rain over the weekend - but mainly Mendocino County north.  Nothing in the Bay Area.  Might see a pattern change as we move into March, bringing us some wetter weather for a period of time but then after that high pressure will probably take over and we will be into the northwest wind, dry season.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 2-3

Very cold temps this morning region wide in wake of yesterday's front passage.  High pressure builds in for the week leaving us cold, dry and windy.   Swell is raw and large this AM, 14ft @13 seconds from a very steep 320 deg.   Look for strong north winds all week long.  Cold water temps a result.  Swell will stay above 8 ft through Wednesday night and then gradually fade through the back half of the week.  Plenty to ride, just need some wind protection.  See you in the water.