What was that phrase from the Godfather......

Just when i  thought i  was out they pulled me back in......?   My last post saying i  was taking a winter break generated a lot of emails.   Want to thank everyone for their thoughts and it also made me realize that the blog for many is important as are the reports.   So i'll do my best to keep the reports and not leave anyone hanging!  

With that in mind - let me update everyone on what is happening and coming - because we do have some pretty significant swell trains inbound.   First off, large northwest swell that rolled in the past two days is winding down this am - but still quite solid - 8-9ft at 15 seconds far north - a bit smaller towards OB and Santa Cruz (7-8ft at 15 from 300).   We have two days of decent winds, especially mornings and the next very solid swell will start showing tonight - and by Sunday morning be impacting the north and central coast with forerunners in the 8-10ft at 21-22 second range.   Quite solid with the long period.   Swell will likely increase on Monday - deepwater 13-14 ft and 16-19ft in spots 18-19 second period.  Very powerful and large.   Storm track gets active again Monday, North Bay first and rain spreading into the Bay Area Tuesday.   Another break Wednesday before another storm comes ashore Thursday into Friday.   Weather models hint at yet another system next weekend.   So after a long dry December with minimal swell - January is taking us in the opposite direction with weather and waves.   Winds Sunday will start to veer southeast ahead of the next system and pretty much stay south to southwest the remainder of the week.   So today and tomorrow (if you like the big stuff) will be the call.    Thanks again for all the support and i'll do my best to continue reports each week into the year ahead.   Cheers and cya in the water.  

Happy New Year!

Happy New Year!  Wasabi is going to be taking a winter break from the forecast for the remainder of the season so I won't be updating for a while.   Work,  combined with the fact that I'm not around this area much anymore (more time spent far Nor Cal) - need to focus on some other things.    Please continue to use the links and the site and I  may resume updating the forecast later in the year or when I  have more time on my hands.   Thanks to everyone for being loyal followers of this blog.   Cya in the water!

UPDATED FORECAST - 12-26

Light winds and moderate northwest to west swell should continue Christmas week.   Buoys right now are 6-7 ft at 13 from 295 plus.   Reinforcing shot of west swell rolls in starting tomorrow and Thursday -that should take surf heights back up some to 6-7ft at 15 seconds.   Slow fade into the weekend.   The persistent ridge blocking all storms from the west coast as well as shunting a lot of swell producing storms way up into the Gulf of AK is showing signs of breaking down.   If you read the NOAA forecasts on this page you will see that we're starting to see signs of things changing around the first week in January.   Hopefully that comes to pass and we will start getting some rain - which is also good for many local beaches and spots along the Central CA Coast during the winter - opening up river mouths, sandbars and other locations.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-17

On track for one of the driest Decembers on record.   Small storm system due to drop in Tues/Wed time frame but don't expect much rain south of SF and very light amounts.   High pressure will regain control right after.   North winds blowing 15-25kts with gusts to 30 - northwest swell is 7ft at 12 seconds.   Look for winds to gradually wind down tomorrow - swell to range 6-10ft at 12 seconds.   Winds remain light until Wed when northwest winds ramp up behind front passage.   Swell to range 6-9ft through Thursday.   Long term weather models suggest a wet pattern might take shape from the end of Dec thru Jan 13th - by then we will really need some weather around here.   If the pattern doesn't show more promise in January we could be in for a very dry winter which wont bode well for CA.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-2

December.   Large back to back northwest swells have been rolling in.   Swell is down a tad from the past two days but still 10-12ft at 15-17 seconds this am.   Quite solid.   Winds are generally light and variable with a bit of an offshore component in some spots.   Solid swell looks to stick around at least through Monday - decreasing by a foot or so each day while the period drops.   Chance of rain from Marin north tonight into Sunday, then we're high and dry for the remainder of the week as a more continental airmass will arrive from the north giving us some very cold nights during the first part of the week, moderating some from mid week on.   North winds will pick up early in the week, then turn light to offshore from about Wednesday on.  So it could be a nice run of days once we get through this weather.   Keep an eye on the winds, plenty of surf on tap.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 11-25

Hope you had a good Thanksgiving.   Early this morning winds are fairly light and northwest swell is 5.9 at 12 sec from 310.  Look for light winds today and a good part of Saturday before the next series of storms takes aim at Central/Northern CA.   In addition, building northwest swell Saturday night - 4-6 ft at 19 seconds, will build even more on Sunday at 10-13ft at 17 sec, and Monday jumping up to 13-15 ft at 14-15 sec.   Strong south winds will ramp up Saturday night and blow all day Sunday, switching to southwest direction at 20-30kts.   Winds will shift to the northwest on Monday behind the front and blow fairly strong at 20-30kts.   Rain on and off from Saturday night into Monday.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - 11-11

Super fun late season south/southwest swell hitting our shores - 3.2 at 15 sec @190.  North Pac swell is 4ft at 10 sec from 305.   Look for this south swell to stick around through Monday night - staying in that deepwater zone of 3ft as period drops.   Northwest swell will stay small (ideal for not harassing the vibe of the south) - at least thru Sunday - then the northwest will jump up to around 8ft at 12 seconds on Monday night.   Most likely to remain elevated through next Thursday as as series of Pacific storms come ashore - first one late Sunday, another mid week and then another next weekend.   Winds will fluctuate between south as front come onshore and west to northwest as they pass.   So, plenty of swell - just check the winds and know your spots and you'll find good waves. Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 11-6/STORMY PATTERN

We are in between systems today and tomorrow while a large low pressure system is dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska, due to hit us starting Wednesday and Thursday.   This will bring a period of very strong south turning west winds, larger southwest storm swell.   In the meantime, smaller west swell

around today and Tuesday - deepwater 4-6 ft at 14 seconds, with fairly light north winds forecast at 5-15kts.   After the mid week storm, winds and swell should decline as we head into Friday.    Unsettled pattern looks to continue on and off through next weekend as the Pacific is active for early November.   Keep an eye on the winds and you'll find some good windows for surf.   Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST - 10-26

Powerful new NW/WNW swell will plow into N Cal late Friday into the weekend from an intense storm and remnants of Typhoon Lan that cranked out huge surf near the Aleutians for the past 36 hours or so.  Probably see some forerunners very late Friday in far Nor Cal - game on everywhere else by Saturday morning - showing biggest late afternoon and evening Saturday.   Probably looking for double and triple overhead sets by dark on Saturday and possibly larger and best north/northwest facing breaks.  Swell will peak Sunday morning with continuing double to triple overhead surf. Swell direction about 290-310.   Decent southwest swell will roll in at the same time from 205 to 220 - good for chest to head high sets at south facing breaks but mostly lost under the more dominant northwest swell.   Looking for pretty ideal winds the next few says - especially for AM sessions with no wind or light offshore wind.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - OCT 14TH - LARGE NW LATE WEEK

Light winds continue through mid week with small north/northwest swell along with an incoming southwest swell starting Tuesday.  Then our first large northwest swell of the season comes in (along with weather) - starting Thursday.  

Breaking things down like this:
Today - light north winds most of the day - deepwater swell about 3-4ft at 9-10 sec
Tues - NW winds 10kts - deepwater swell 4-5 at 10-12 and new south showing 3ft @18 sec
Wed - NW winds 10kt - deepwater swell from northwest about 5ft at 13 and south 3ft at 18.
Thursday - southwest winds, chance of rain - winds 10-20kts - deepwater 9-12ft from northwest.
Friday - NW winds 10-20 kts - northwest swell 13-16ft.
Northwest swell will begin a slow fade into and through next weekend.   Good chance of rain Thursday into Friday - for sure the North Bay will get a decent hit which will help the fires and lesser amounts Bay Area south.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - OCT 10TH

Decent run of surf should continue through the weekend.   Current NW swell is easing out today but still good for head to overhead waves at northwest facing breaks today.   A new mid period NW swell will show mid week - pushing surf back up to overhead range at NW facing breaks.   Meanwhile, southwest swell trains look to continue towards the weekend with a fun size SW (200-220) from the 13th to 15th and then another pulse for the 17th to 19th.   North to northwest winds will increase again mid week and last through the weekend - strongest over the outer waters and far north.   Around the Bay Area these winds could take a more NE or offshore component some mornings.   The increase in winds will not help all the wildfires burning around Northern California.    We could use some rain to help firefighters and nothing really on the horizon for the next 7-10 days.   Cya in the water.  

OCTOBER

Calendar says Oct 1, but the conditions look a bit more like late April or May.   Strong, gale force winds are blowing down the coast from Cape Mendocino south, making a general mess of everything.  Short period windswell the rule and that looks to continue into the week.   I'm not seeing much hope for anything until next Friday (forerunners Thursday) when a steep angled south swell comes in from down under.   This swell is the result of a strong storm last week and should have some decent size (deepwater 3-4 ft with long periods), but the angle of approach might limit it's solid impacts 190-195 degrees.   However, south facing spots should have size and if all goes as forecast this could be a pretty solid swell event.    No major swells of interest from the North Pacific forecast, however we could see some energy middle of the following week - as things remain fairly active in the Gulf, but most of the energy has been pushing into BC.   Winds might get lighter towards Thursday of next week which would limit it's shredding impacts on the incoming south swell train up the coast.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - SEP 25

Fall conditions to start the week with light to offshore winds and small windswell in the water - 2-4ft from 315-320.   We will see in increase in short to mid period west/northwest swell/windswell starting Tuesday lasting through Thursday - deepwater heights about 2-5ft thru that period.   Steep approach at 310, periods 9-11 seconds.   Beyond that - no swell expected into the weekend and beyond.   Just windswell if we're lucky.   N Pac is not fully online yet as we really wait for the pattern to set up and more frequent swell producing storms develop.   On the upside, winds look relatively light most of the week, at least until Thursday.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST SEP 18/SOLID SWELL IN THE WATER

Buoys in the Gulf of Alaska reporting swell of 17-22ft at 14 seconds this morning depending on location.   That's our swell in the water heading this way.   Surf will be on the rise Tuesday far north and Bay Area overnight - then quite solid for Wednesday & Thursday when deep water heights will be in the 8-12ft/Wed, 6-10ft/Thurs range - from 305-320.    Look for decent size to hang around through Friday.   Early season storms hitting WA, OR and far Nor Cal, will actually bring a chance of rain as far south as Sonoma County tomorrow and then exit the region mid week - leaving us with northwest winds behind the fronts.   Winds will be the issue the next few days, no real clean conditions but best bet will most likely be for the AM sessions.   Winds might lighten up a bit towards the end of the week.   With regards to buoys, the CA Buoy remains adrift but still reporting.  The Papa Buoy is no longer reporting wave heights.   Oregon Buoy, Mendo Buoy and Pt Arena Buoy best window to incoming swell trains.   I've also added the Stormsurf/Gulf of Alaska Buoy link which gives you a good look at swell much further out.   No idea when these broken or out of commission buoys will be retrieved and redeployed.   With the Useless Idiot in the Whitehouse trying to cut NOAA programs as well as claiming climate change is a hoax, might be a while before we get operational buoys again......cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST/SEP 14/First large NW swell next week

Northwest winds are blowing hard over outer waters - fading, meager sw swell still around but limping out of here tonight as another equally impotent s/se swell moves in or misses the Coast entirely.   Windswell will be the rule through the weekend - and wind.   Things look to improve by Tuesday/Wednesday when a longer period, northwest swell, a real swell, moves into the region.   More on that by Monday - storm has not come together yet in the N Pac, but models are forecasting deepwater heights in the 8-12ft range during that period.   So it should have some size and power.   Until then, get what you can.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST SEPT 7TH

Long period forerunners will come in overnight from an extra tropical storm that developed last weekend.    Look for deepwater 4-5ft at 19 sec tonight into the morning.   Period will drop to 18 sec then 16 sec by Saturday afternoon.   Decent size through the weekend.  Could be a bit lully at times, these longer period extra trop swells tend to come from far away and this one is no different.   Swell direction plus 290 degrees.  Meanwhile, mid period Gulf swell is fading out today - 4-5 at 12-13 seconds.   This one came in smaller than forecast and inconsistent as well.   Winds are still south to southwest today - which kick over to light north overnight into tomorrow.   Then stronger northwest wind for the weekend.   Long term into September looking pretty promising and active in the N Pac.  Cya in the water.  

SEPTEMBER 4TH/UPDATED FORECAST

Nice SSW swell peaks today - long period swell is 2.7 at 15 from 185 plus.   Swell fades tomorrow and then we have our first fall swell due to arrive Wed/Thurs.  That swell from 290-305 will be good for overhead surf at winter breaks, smaller at south facing breaks.   Western Typhoon Sanvu is the next system behind this one - that will generate swell after recurving in the Pacific, for around the 13th - 15th.   I'll dial in that swell later in the week.   As for winds, southeast to south winds first part of the week due in part to the upper level pattern and remnants of former Mexico TS Lidia which is moving overhead this morning bringing increasing clouds and a chance of thunderstorms.   Once Lidia moves out - winds might switch briefly to west then northwest late in the week.   No huge northwest wind blow in the forecast, just highly variable.   Morning sessions might be best bet.   Plenty of swell on tap this week - certainly looking like September.   Cya in the water.  

SEPTEMBER 1!!!

Welcome to the 2017/2018 season.   You made it through another summer, a particularly lousy summer for surf around these parts.    Extremely hot conditions exist today and will stick around over the weekend.   As such, high pressure has crushed the marine layer leaving us with fairly light winds today and through the weekend.  Perhaps an afternoon sea breeze each day.   Not much swell to talk about - small windswell and a fading steep angle south swell which didn't make much noise the past few days.  Look for a better angled sw swell (200-210) to move in around Sunday afternoon - maybe chest high sets at best by Monday/Tuesday.   Our first swell from the N Pac looks to head in here around Sept 6-7 - as models forecasting a storm to develop in the next couple days.   That swell, from around 300 will be good for head/overhead surf, possibly larger at times.   Behind that, another swell is forecast for Sept 8-10.   I'll be watching those lows develop this weekend and update late weekend or Monday.   Good sign however, with some solid surf (finally) on the way.   Cya in water.
***CA BUOY is adrift but still reporting.   No idea when they will get it back to it's original position.

UPDATED FORECAST 8-22

There is a small touch of hurricane swell showing from Kenneth tonight - running around 2-3ft at 12-13 secs from 220.   Just building and will be in the water tomorrow into Thursday, possibly some left overs into Friday am.   Winds were light most of the day - starting to pick up from the northwest tonight.   NW winds will pick up the rest of the week - hard to say if they will mix in right along the coast - good chance AM sessions might be ok - but expect winds for the PM sessions.   High pressure is setting up shop and it all depends on the location of the high.   Seas will build offshore the rest of the week in response to the winds, so nearshore wind swell will increase as well.   No long period swells from the south or north forecast for at least the next seven days or so.   September is almost here.  I am keeping an eye on the N Pac for some signs of life and the first swells of fall.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - AUG 13

Poor surf and conditions look to continue, some swell on the horizon from the south and southwest late next week and into the following.   Until then, not much to talk about other than short period windswell, fog and onshore winds.   I'd look for an increase of swells from the south around Aug 18-21.  Watching the N Pac for signs of life as we get closer to September.   Hang in there.   Cya in the water.