UPDATED FORECAST 3-26

Our hot, dry March will come to a close next week as rain returns to most of CA starting about Tuesday and go on for 3-4 days.  Heaviest amounts Santa Cruz north.   Surf wise - lot of wind right now in the outer waters (gale warnings up) generating mostly large wind swell - north of Bodega around 10@10 sec.  Smaller SF south.   Small south in the water at 2ft - but getting smacked down once in gets around Pt Conception.  Pretty much look for average size wind swell the rest of the week into early next - along with background south swells.  Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 3-10 - FIRST SOUTH IN THE WATER

 Long period south swell forerunners moving up the West Coast today - offshore buoys from Santa Cruz south to Oceanside reporting 2ft@22 plus sec from 187-194 deg.   SF north, just mostly large wind swell for the day as the north west winds continue to howl.  Swell will start to fill in better from SC south on Wednesday - peaking around 3@17-19 sec on Thursday.  Leftovers around Friday into Saturday, but smaller.  North of SC - swell will probably start to show at good south facing spots Thursday into Friday - might lose some steam due to the forecasted northwest winds through the period - but not a bad starter for the season.   High pressure firmly in control now through the next 10 days.   Will it rain again this season?   Not looking likely, although long term models way out point to one more pattern change late March into early April - will see if that actually comes to pass.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 2-28 - End of the "good wave" season?

 March 1st tomorrow and that typically is the end of the good wave/weather season around these parts.   A look at the buoys this morning paints a more optimistic picture.   New long period northwest swell has filled in overnight - ranging from over 9ft @15-17 seconds (320 deg) far north to around 4@15 seconds in SF.   Smaller south of there, but swell will continue to fill in all day.  We also have traces of a new and first south swell of the spring, around 1ft@17 seconds.  That will also build some over the weekend, but likely be lost in the dominant northwest swell.   Winds are light to offshore.   Northwest swell will fade over the weekend and be replaced by some small west to northwest swells through Tuesday.   Chance of rain returns Sunday and Monday - but very light and likely none south of Sonoma County.   Later next week the northwest (spring) wind machine ramps up with strong winds 25-30kt by Wednesday evening.   Just a reminder what season we are heading into!  Plenty of waves the next couple of days.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 2-15 - STAYING LARGE AND STORMY

 Just starting a solid storm production cycle for the West Coast with heavy snow, rain and wind, XL surf for the most part over the next week.  Timing the windows for ideal winds and surf will be challenging.  This morning - first storm in the series is producing strong south winds and heavy rain north of the Sonoma County line.   West swell 8-9ft@15 seconds mostly, with short period south and north wind swell also in the water making it all a chaotic mess.  Swell comes up a notch tomorrow, pulsing back up to 10@13 and then really jumping Tuesday into Wednesday with deep water heights forecast 16-17ft @14-17 seconds.  Swell angle will fluctuate between 270 and 295 degrees.  West to northwest winds - strong at times - through the next 5 days.  This will continue to bring much colder air into the region and very low snow levels by Wednesday morning.   All n all, not many windows to surf but there are a few spots that will hold waves and deal with the wind.   Cya in the water?   

UPDATED FORECAST 1-31

 Good size west swell (280 deg) continues today, fading quite a bit from its peak yesterday - but solid this morning - 6-8 ft at 11 to 13sec.   Winds are light, mostly offshore as high pressure is once again in control.   A strong low pressure system in the N Pac will send another strong swell to our shores starting Sunday starting at 11@16 sec from 290 plus with a slow fade into Monday and Tuesday.  Monday will still be solid - 10-11@15 sec.   Brief dip in heights will be following by yet another swell starting next Thursday, ratcheting wave heights back up into the 10-11@14-16sec realm.   Good winds for the next week, light to variable/offshore for the most part.   Not much rain in the forecast through the second week of February.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 1-17

 Two distinct patterns this winter - couple weeks of wet, followed by couple weeks of dry - we are back in that dry period, reminiscent of most of December prior to Christmas when the flood gates opened with rain through New Years Day.  Stubborn high pressure the culprit, but not very unusual for a La Niña Winter.   Great weather for us and there have been some really epic surf days.   High pressure sticks around for at least another week and then models are hinting at a pattern change again - back to rain.   Until then - mostly light, offshore winds, some fog, small surf the rule.  Small west/northwest swell today through tomorrow - around 4-5ft@13-14 seconds.   Another slightly larger swell from the northwest will fill in Tuesday - peaking at around 6@14 seconds.  Swell direction for both around 280-290 deg.  So mostly fun size waves for the next week or so - Santa Cruz north.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-31

 Hope you enjoyed the past couple of sunny days - next round of storms lining up and will bring rain, wind, swell to the region for the next week or so.   It will be mostly south winds from today forward with increasing swell toward the weekend.   Gale warnings up for Friday when southeast winds will rip with gusts to 40kts.   For the rest of today, small west swell builds in at 5@12 seconds.   For NY day, expect southeast winds to pick up along with a southwest swell building 8@11 and a secondary south swell 6@13 sec.  Friday into Sunday - probably a mess - large storm south swell comes in 14@9 seconds while a bigger west swell fills in over the top of it peaking at 14ft@13 sec.  Swell direction from the south will mostly be 170 deg + while the west swell will be 275 deg.   Not seeing anything but south winds through Sunday night.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST - 12-23

 Parade of storms continues through the end of the week with heavy rain, strong winds and ultimately some very large storm surf to come with it starting tomorrow night.  This will be south swell from the storm direction and likely peak at 16-18 ft @10 seconds.   Large and raw.   A good size west swell will take over late week into the weekend at around 14ft @14 seconds.  High pressure looks to build back in "briefly" for the coming weekend.   More weather on the way between Christmas and New Year's.  Plenty to ride if you know where to look - cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-12

 Northwest swell continues today and will fade into the weekend.   Deep water swell running around 6-8ft at 14 seconds.  Not much swell getting past Santa Cruz, but some.  Biggest SF and to the north.   Our long dry spell will end next week - as high pressure that has been camped in the region since Nov 20 finally moves to the east.  Storm door opens early in the week with on and off light rain forecast from Oregon to SF - not much rain making its way past Santa Cruz yet.   A strong system, possible atmospheric river in fact, sets up for next weekend and that will bring heavier more widespread precipitation.  Swell will stay small after this weekend and then start to increase again by the middle of next week.  Winds will be highly variable and shuffling around from south to north to west and back to south all next week as fronts come ashore.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND

 Happy Thanksgiving.   Surf starting out smallish this week as a mix of southwest and northwest swells continue to fade - 3-4ft@11-12 seconds from 300 is the nw and around 2ft@13 from 190 on the southwest.  Incoming swell tonight will start to push things back up later Thursday and Friday - peaking around 10@14 for Friday.   Looks like a series of larger swells roll in later in the weekend and into next week.   As always - surf this time of year will be much bigger north of SF.   The storm track is taking a break and staying to the north and east of us - leaving CA high and dry for the most part in the extended.   Pattern might break down 2nd wk in December.   However, storm track remains active which is why we continue to see nice size swell trains.  Winds are light the next two days and then we will see an uptick in north (offshore) winds potentially into the weekend as a low pressure system dives into the Great Basin.  Nice weather, but turning much cooler by Saturday.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 11-5

 Staying big and stormy north of SF for the rest of the week - large West Swell moves in later today pushing wave heights back into the 15-20 ft range.  Ongoing rain to hit on and off through Friday.   Better surf and weather conditions expected south of Big Sur.   Surf will trend a touch smaller over the weekend - winds do not look that horrible through Sunday.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-17

 Long period northwest swell will begin filling in along the coast late tonight (SF North) and slowly fill in through the day on Saturday into Sunday.   Swell will peak at 8-10 ft @15 seconds.  Biggest SF north.  North winds will mostly blow offshore the next few days which will also create a fairly large windswell over the outer waters that could peak at around 13ft on Sunday.   This will combine with the nw swell to make the surf even larger.   Things settle down some on the wind front by around Tuesday, just in time for another northwest swell train - this one 10@17 to run in.   General swell direction will be 300-310 degrees.   Fall is here.  Nice weather for the next week or so and then by next week a potentially bigger pattern change against with days of heavy rain and wind.   Bit early to dial that in - but the weather models are trending towards something decent.   Get some, cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 9-26 - N PAC OPEN FOR BIZ

 The fall transition to North Pacific swells is well underway in the Gulf.   A series of low pressure systems, energized by the remnants of West Pac typhoons is traversing around 40 N.  The energy from the West is energizing the jet stream - winds are strong in an area of deep low pressure up under Alaska.  We also have locally generated windswell hitting mostly points from SF north.   First pulse of northwest swell is forecast to arrive later on Saturday likely peaking around 6-8 ft @13 seconds from 300 deg.  At the same time - windswell will increase further to 11ft@10 seconds mostly in the outer waters.   Northwest swell will remain moderate in size from 5-6ft @12-14 seconds through Tuesday.   Biggest north of SF.  Then we have our first real swell of the fall season to come in Wednesday - peaking at 10ft @14 seconds.   Winds stay strong from the northwest until Sunday, when the direction will change to south as the first in a series of storm systems comes ashore for most of Northern California with some moisture making it's way into Central CA.   South winds on and off through about Wednesday of next week.   Rain on and off through the period - heaviest SF north where a few inches will fall.   To the south, keep an eye on Hurricane Narda to toss in decent south swell - close source - 3-4 ft @12-13 seconds from 180.  That will likely impact So Cal most to Santa Cruz.  Everything else further north will be under the influence of the bigger northerly swells.  Plenty to ride, some rain, wind, etc, all the things about fall we look forward to.  Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 9-13

 First northwest swell of the early season is peaking today along the CA Coast - biggest north of SF at round 7-8ft @14-15 seconds.  Swell direction is 305.   Small south in the background around 2ft@14 from 205.  Another early season storm will brush far Northern California tomorrow and behind it high pressure will build in next week warming temps back up.   It will be windy the next couple days - out of the north/northwest - especially north of SF.   Winds will begin to settle late next week.  Background south swells forecast most of next week - nothing notable until around Wednesday when a longer period south builds in.   There is the potential for another larger northwest swell next week as well - looking at the models things could get interesting around next Thursday and likely more swell behind that as the season is starting in the N Pac and slowing down for the Summer in the Southern Hemisphere.   As NOAA stations/buoys continue to go offline it will become increasingly harder to accurately forecast.  Even basic things like nearshore water temperature become harder to locate given malfunctioning NOAA stations.   Don't look for anyone to repair or replace in the near future.   We will be back to the OG ways soon - just get in your vehicle and drive until you see surf..........cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 9-8

 Our run of south swell continues this week with another NZ south starting to roll in today at 2@17 from 175 and we have a small northwest swell hitting around 2@11 from 305.   Storm system just offshore will bring some early season rain to N CA - from about SF north - and the most rain from Southern Mendo to the Oregon border.  After that, high pressure to build in, but more unsettled weather potentially this coming weekend as fall begins to take hold.  A better northwest swell is now on the charts for this coming weekend - still on the smaller side but should peak around 3@15 from 305 - starting Friday.  Do not see much of this swell hitting south of Santa Cruz.   Winds seasonably light with southerly winds until Tuesday night switching to 5-10 kt northwest through the period.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST SEP 1 - WELCOME TO FALL

You made it through another summer.   Today is the first day of meteorological fall (Sep-Nov) and for Northern CA, the first day of the good wave or big wave season as we know it which will run through March 1.   The N Pac never really went to sleep this summer - absent the usual NE Pacific High Pressure holding court - instead - CA weather was and remains under the influence of mostly low pressure and associated systems meandering about in the Gulf of Alaska.  This keeps high pressure from the desert southwest in check - for the most part - we've seen some warmer weeks recently especially for people not along the coast.  We look to enter another season of La Niña, but it's weak and should fade out by Spring of 2026.   A few buoy updates - Bodega, PAPA and West Oregon all remain offline.  Given the current administration and cuts to NOAA and the NWS I  do not expect these buoys to be redeployed.  PAPA is a key one given its location 600 NM offshore as it usually gives us a good preview of incoming winter swells.  The next buoy in line is the California Buoy - about 357NM offshore.   No swell making weather systems are in the N Pac at the moment.   We do have a good run of south to southwest swell underway - most stations showing 3-4ft @17 from 195 degrees this morning - quite solid.   Look for mostly southern swell energy all week with plenty of waves to ride.  Winds look strongest from the northwest early this week and mostly outer waters fading towards the end of the week.   Keeping an eye on the N Pac for our first swell maker to the season.  Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 8-10 - SOUTH TO DELIVER

Beginning a run of what should be one of the better south/southwest swells in a while.  Complex system under NZ for the past 7-10 days continues to send swell trains up to CA.   The next pulse, starting today is showing at the buoys with deepwater heights around 3@18 from 215 degrees.   Swell will build into Monday/Tuesday with deepwater heights forecast to be 4-5ft with long periods - should lead to some decent size surf.  Swell sticks around through mid week and gradually fades out Thursday.   Winds look light through mid week - then will ramp up a bit from the northwest into next weekend.  Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 8-4 - SIGNS OF FALL......

A small northwest swell is on the charts starting Tuesday (north of SF) - likely to come in around 2@14 seconds and build to 4-6 ft @11 seconds Wednesday/Thursday.  The N Pac looks active - with storms across the northern latitudes plowing into BC and the Northwest through the coming week.   Sign of things changing for sure.   The South Pacific also looks quite active from mid month on.  As we approach mid August and head towards September the South Pacific tends to flare up and send some of our best swells of the season.  Tropics are active as well.   Winds are still an issue - northwest to north - but protected nooks and crannies will be decent.   Cya in the water.    

UPDATED FORECAST 7-20

Mostly smaller south swells through the coming week - nothing much over 2@17 seconds from around 185-190.  Winds should stay mostly light as well through the period as we remain under the influence of a North Pacific low circulation (as has been the case most of the summer) which is not allowing the usual high pressure dome to build in from the southwest.   Still warmer inland areas but the coast is staying seasonally cool.    Nothing much on the charts beyond - ole Wasabi taking a little break for the next couple of weeks with fewer updates.  Looking towards Sep 1 when the season kicks off and will have more regular updates.  Cya in the water!  

UPDATED FORECAST - 4TH OF JULY WEEK

 Week starting off with mostly wind swell in the water SF north - small south swell Santa Cruz south.  Wind swell will continue most of the week and grow in size mid week on - peaking around 9-10 ft @9 seconds for Wed/Thur - biggest north of Jenner.   New southeast swell starts to build Thursday at around 2@17 from 187.   Swell peaks on Friday and will slow fade into the weekend, staying around 2-3 ft at @16 seconds.   Swell arrival north of SF about 24 hours later.    Winds not bad today and tomorrow - then increase mid week and hold fairly strong through the holiday weekend - especially over the outer waters.  Cya in the water.