UPDATED FORECAST 3-30

 Another round of winter storms impacting the state - last in the series moving through So Cal today and exiting the region.    Behind the low pressure, high pressure will quickly build in and bring strong north winds for the next few days down the coast, further tumbling water temps in the process which are hovering around 50 in far Nor Cal and about 53 Bay Area.   Pulse of west swell is in the water around 8-10 ft @12 seconds from 280 degrees.  North to northwest winds all week, it will feel more like spring as well.   Next chance of rain appears to be late next weekend, but very light amounts.   Don't think we are quite done with the rainy season so expect some April showers.  Swell will gradually fade into mid week, with a very small south swell mid week as well - likely 2 ft @14 sec, and probably lost under all the chop from the upcoming winds.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 3-24

 Storm system sweeping through and out of CA today as winter keeps rolling on.   Expect a couple more systems to come in for the upcoming week, especially Central CA to Oregon border.  Steeper angle northwest swell in the water at 9-10ft@12 sec from 300.  Biggest north of SF.  Northwest winds will really ramp up today as the front moves out - winds 15-25knots gusting to 30 knots.  Lighter northwest winds Monday/Tuesday, then turn southwest ahead of a weather system for Wed/Thurs.  Swell fades into tomorrow then a pair of west swells come in for Tuesday and Wednesday, getting XL by Thursday when we push back up to 14-16ft.  Biggest swell north of SF as usual.   No south swell in the water this coming week but keeping an eye on storm activity in the Southern Hemisphere.   Plenty of waves, check your winds and cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 3-18

 Mostly light winds this week as high pressure remains in control through today.   Starting tomorrow and into mid week, high will push off to the east as the N Pac and Jetstream begin to re organize, bringing wet weather back to the West Coast starting Thursday for parts north of Sonoma County, and Bay Area Friday into Saturday.   Cooler temps will accompany a series of systems.   Surf wise, it's staying small for the most part - smaller long period northwest swell rolls into tonight into Tuesday - 2-4@18 sec - fattening up some for Wednesday, around 5ft @15 sec - this is deepwater swell.   Small early season south swell in the water Wednesday and Thursday - at 2ft@17 seconds.   Little tease from Down Under.  Winds turn more southwest for Thursday/Friday once the rain starts up.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 3-13

Storm track is pulling off CA - should give us a break for the next 7-10 days, as high pressure builds in over the NE Pacific, with low pressure in the Desert Southwest - forming what weather experts call "a rex block pattern" which is a very stagnant set up.   N Pacific still active but most of the energy now moves west of the Dateline.   XXL swell is hitting far Nor Cal this morning - buoys were 15-17ft @15 seconds from 305 degrees. Much smaller Central and So Cal - around 8ft@13 sec.   North/offshore winds will ramp up on Thursday due in part to the gradient difference between the low/high pressure - swell will gradually wind down into the weekend and winds will become much lighter Sat/Sun.  For sure looking like a springtime set up.   Get it while you can.   We do have some activity Down Under from the Southern Hemisphere - but much of that energy will focus on So Cal and Santa Cruz - and pretty small for the most part.   El Niño is fading, La Niña on the horizon for late year into next year - but it will take a while for all the energy created by this strong El Niño to dissipate - so some swell production in the N Pac into April/May very likely.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST FOR MARCH 7TH

Looking a lot like an early Spring pattern setting up.  Northwest winds are howling from about SF to Pt Arena. The ocean is responding accordingly with rising, large, short period wind swell and tumbling water temps due to upwelling.  The good news, short lived blow today, should ease off tomorrow (a bit).   Wind waves today north of Bodega/outer waters - 12-14ft, with a very small northwest swell lost underneath at 3-4ft @13 seconds.  Northwest winds 25-30 kts.   Wind drops to 10-15kts tomorrow as a new, mid period northwest swell comes in - but only at 4-6ft @14 seconds.  Rain returns Saturday - mostly north of SF - and will last through Monday.   Southwest winds will be on the rise Saturday/Sunday into Monday - making a mess of things.  Large Northwest swell steams in on Sunday at 12-14ft - but doubtful anything will be manageable with the wind except perhaps for Central Cal and further south.  Swell angle on most of this energy is going to be pretty steep - 300 plus degrees.   Enjoy a couple days of sun and then it's back to the wet this weekend.  Cya in the water.  

MARCH 1

 March 1st is historically the end of the "good" wave season in Northern/Central Cal.   This March, all bets are off - right now we have a macking swell inbound from a huge area of low pressure sitting and spinning in the Gulf of Alaska - which will bring the well advertised heavy snow event to the Sierra and most all higher elevations of Northern California.   Expect to see accumulations of snow even at lower elevations - below 500ft late tonight and Saturday.   Few flakes at sea level possible north of Ft Bragg.  Unfortunately for the inbound swell - brutal sw to west winds are tearing things up, so don't expect it to be clean throughout the weekend.  In fact, not really seeing much improvement in the wind through next Tuesday.  Such has been the story this winter as far as surfing goes.   Swell will stay XXL through Sunday, gradually fade into next week.   More rain on the way on and off next week as well.  Wish i  had a better forecast - but that's what we got.   Cya in the water?   

UPDATED FORECAST 2-22

It's been a wild couple weeks and I  for one was not in the water much, just dealing with storm after storm hitting the North Coast.  Finally some nice days, chance to dry out, get in the water and catch some waves.  Surf was mostly fun size today - about 4-6 ft @11 sec from 300 degrees.  New swell is inbound for Friday/Saturday - deep water 8-10ft @14 sec on Friday, gradually fading into Saturday and then another long period northwest swell runs in Sunday, 4-6@18 seconds which sticks around until Monday.   Winds look good through Sunday - light northeast to southeast.   Nice weather for the most part, but then things begin to break down again starting next week - probably about mid week on as the jet stream will once again take aim at CA.   Larger swell also comes in Tuesday at 12-14 ft, but by then the northwest winds will be chugging over the outer waters and potentially near shore making a mess of things.  For now, nice reprieve for a few days, some decent conditions and fun surf.  Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 2-10

 High pressure overhead for a few days giving us a welcome break from last week's storms.  Don't get too comfy, as the long term forecast is now showing another potentially impactful series of storms/atmospheric rivers to hit from Feb 17-23.   More on that by the middle of next week.  Surf wise, lingering northwest swell around today - 6-7@12 seconds.   New west swell builds tonight and will be nicely solid Sunday with deepwater at 8-9ft@17 seconds.  Swell direction around 296 deg.   That swell will slowly subside but linger until about Wednesday of next week.  Winds look pretty light through next Wednesday as well.  Good time to get wet if you've been out of the water for a while due to the weather.   My sense is by next Thursday things will rapidly start to deteriorate as the storm door opens and we get hit with another El Niño infused group of storms.   El Niño is on its last legs and we will start to transition back to La Niña by mid spring - but until then, plenty of energy out in the Pacific for the Jetstream to work with.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 2-1, NO SURF FOR YOU!

 In between atmospheric rivers at the moment - strong storm came ashore early Wednesday am packing very strong winds and torrential rain in spots.  Swell has come in behind the storm - running about 14-17ft from 280 degrees.  It's going to stay on the large side through the weekend, very messy with the winds blowing strongly from the south/south east for the most part until next Tuesday.   Chance of rain next couple days and then the 2nd atmospheric river comes in Sunday into Monday.  This one will take a bit more southerly track - so SF, Santa Cruz and points south will see the greatest impacts.  You might find a few moments over the next 5-7 days at certain spots depending on winds, rain, swell - but it sure doesn't look pretty!   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST, THE WEEK AHEAD....

Lull between storms today as high pressure briefly sweeps in over the region.  Swell on the small side, left overs at around 6@11sec from 285.   Winds are light.   New swell sweeps in overnight from our most recent storm - peaking tomorrow at around 8-10 ft @16 seconds from 275.  Swell will still be decent at 9-11 ft on Thursday and then slow face into the weekend.   Rain tomorrow and again on Friday.   Winds not too bad until the Friday storm when they will ramp up from the southeast again.   Beyond next weekend - forecasts calling for perhaps a very stormy period about the middle of next week with the potential for heavy rain.  Still very early but something to keep an eye on.  XL swell most likely to result with sloppy conditions.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE WEEK OF 1-15-24

 New storm to come ashore Tuesday/Wednesday this week with a brief break and then potentially a much heavier precipitation pattern headed into next weekend and beyond.  Surf will remain on the smaller side through Friday as the jet stream is displaced some to far north with high pressure hovering along the Pacific Coast stretching to the southwest.  Later this week the jet stream will consolidate once again with stronger winds coming across the Pacific, which will strengthen and fuel storm production.   Winds will be highly variable - strong south to southeast as fronts come ashore, backing to the northwest briefly Wednesday and then blowing strong from the south and southeast into next weekend.  Not seeing much of any swell above 6-8ft through the week.   Might be a good week to get some work done.   Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 1-9-24

 Storm door fairly open with moderate to heavy rain forecast for points north of Mendocino, lighter Bay Area to the south.  Look for on and off rain showers through the week.  The weekend potentially could feature a rather robust storm system depending on how things evolve over the next couple days.  A "Kona" low pressure system moving to the northwest of Hawaii is forecast to merge with a N Pac Low mid week and this combination could bring heavy rain to the West Coast.  Right now models show most of that energy going into the Pac NW and far N Cal as a blocking high pressure ridge may set up right along the CA coast.   Lots of uncertainty however in how this develops - so we wait and see.  On the surf front, plenty of swell around this week but the winds are going to be issue - waffling between southwest/west and northwest as fronts come and go.  Biggest swell of the week should come ashore Wednesday, peaking around 12-14 ft @14 seconds.   Left overs into Thursday, Friday and Saturday as surf heights stay in the 5-8ft range.  I'm not really seeing a clean day for winds through about Saturday - but some spots will be better than others based on orientation to the wind.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 1-1-24

 Storm door remains open and more XXL swells due in over the next 7-10 days.   For far Nor Cal, we will see storm systems about every 36 hour come ashore - with south wind and rain.   First storm comes in Tuesday and will exit Thursday.   Brief break, then more rain and mountain snow this coming weekend.   Big day this coming week will be Wednesday with deep water swell 14-17ft at 14 seconds.  Another West swell at 270 - all these swells in this current cycle have been big west events - given the storm track and flow across the mid latitudes of the N Pac.  Swell will drop a bit this coming Thursday to 6-8 ft and then ratchet back up Friday at 10-12 ft.   Winds really sort of a mess the rest of the week - strong south to strong west/northwest most of the week.  Next series of storms will be colder as we will be more under the influence of the Polar Jetstream and energy coming out of the N Pac.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-26

Hope you had a good Christmas.  Storm door wide open and about to unleash on California for the next few days with XXL surf (already happening), strong, storm force winds and a lot of rain.  South winds through the week - very strong at times, no let up in those winds until Saturday at the earliest.  Main swell event on tap for Thursday when deep water swell heights will peak at 18-21ft at 18 seconds - Very large and dangerous surf a result.   A few spots on the Central and North Coast that will feature some rideable waves at times.  Otherwise, hunker down and enjoy the show.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 12-20, HERE COMES EL NINO

180 Hours out, next Thursday shows a strong jet stream across the entire Pacific Basin with two troughs just digging off the West Coast - this will be a high impact event for next week, mid week on - with high surf, winds and copious amounts of rain and high elevation mountain snow.  Before then, we will see a few more weaker systems stream overhead and a new swell inbound peaking later today into tomorrow at 8-10 ft at 15-16sec from 290.  A couple more nice days coming up, with some north to northwest winds, but swell.  I'd get what you can between now and Sunday/Monday - because after that it's going to be hunker down time.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-13

 Staying on the small side for the most part with a couple mid size swells inbound for Thursday and Friday.   First pulse tomorrow will only be 4-6 ft @16 from the northwest, peaking at 5-7 ft overnight.  We will then transition over to a couple small west and southwest swells due in from a couple storms currently spinning in the N Pac.   Unfortunately those swells will combine with pretty strong southeast winds (especially from Mendocino south through the Bay Area) Friday to Sunday as a cutoff low pressure system hovers offshore sending rounds of wind and potentially some decent rain for Mendo and the Bay Area Friday through the weekend and potentially into the following week.   It will be a tricky 5-7 days coming up between the weather, wind and a couple unusual swell directions from the south/southwest which could end up being of the shorter period variety.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-6/BIG WEDNESDAY

 XXL swell in the water 18-20ft at 17-19 seconds 290-295 deg.  Winds are unfortunately a mess - blowing hard from the south or southwest depending on location - rain is falling hard from BC to Bodega Bay and pushing south through the day.   Looks pretty messy the rest of the week with the lightest winds possibly on Saturday - but we are in a stormy run and winds will alternate between south and north/northwest as fronts come and go through the week.   Today's swell will slowly fade into the weekend, but stay pretty decent sized until Friday.   My last post i  lamented "what's up El Niño," and El Niño decided to answer.....Cya in the water.   

PS - adding a new link to the forecast side - windfinder.com - you can search anywhere and get very reliable readings for things like wind, weather, surf.   check it out.  

UPDATED FORECAST 11-30

 Moderate atmospheric river to impact far N Cal, Oregon, Washington through the weekend - rain line will likely not make it south of the Mendo/Sonoma border as annoying high pressure (what's up El Niño?) - hangs around the Great Basin and NE Pacific - keeping most of the rain to our north.   From a swell production stand point, the machine is running and active as storms are lined up across the Pacific Basin.   Small northwest swell around today - about 3-5 ft, along with some wind swell on the order of 5-7ft.   Northwest winds are blowing over the outer waters, less so near shore.  New northwest swell will build in overnight becoming 6-8ft@13 seconds for Friday, along with lighter winds, small chance of rain north of Bodega Bay.  Swell fades Saturday, as a larger northwest swell fills in over the top pushing to 8-10ft for Sunday, bit smaller Monday.   Winds look light southwest/south for the weekend.   General swell direction for all these hits about 295 to 305 degrees.   Bigger swells on the menu for the first part of December - more on that next week.  Cya in the water.  

11-22, NEW UPDATE FOR REST OF THE WEEK

 First in a series of swells hitting today - 7 -8 @14 from west/northwest (285 deg) - biggest north of Bodega.  Winds for the most part are light.   Weak storm is passing overhead this afternoon - might see a shower or two north of Sonoma - the bigger story will be the north wind that builds in behind this from for tomorrow and Friday with 20-30kts forecast and higher gusts.  That will kick up a large wind swell on the order of 10-12ft - while a smaller long period northwest swell builds in underneath at 3-4@19 seconds from around 295 deg.  Another long period swell fills in for the weekend 5-6@21 seconds as the winds drop out for Saturday/Sunday - which are shaping up to be the best days over the next five or so.   

UPDATED FORECAST - THANKSGIVING WEEK

 High pressure builds in for the next 7-10 days.  We will have periods of light winds, some offshore winds, north winds through the next week.   Small west swell builds in Tuesday, around 5ft@16 seconds, while a bigger swell will take aim at the Coast on Wednesday, biggest Thursday at 8-10ft, slow fade into Friday dropping to 6-8ft.   There are some very large storms out in the Pacific right now - but they will be shunted north all week by the high pressure ridge.   Overall, should be a nice week for CA with primarily fun size surf and decent conditions depending on where you go.   Feels like as we move into December the pattern could very well change back to something much more sinister weather wise - as El Niño is in full flight and the pattern over the Pacific Basin is quite active to say the least.   A strong dip in the jet along with large storm systems and it will be game on.    Cya in the water.