WINTER RETURNS.....UPDATED FORECAST 2-22

Cold system dropping south today is bringing light rain, low elevation snow and hail to Nor Cal.  Winds have been howling over the ocean for a few days now - ocean temps responding accordingly - Pt Arena Buoy is 49 deg and dropping.  SF Buoy, low 50s.   It's going to get quite cold the next few nights and as we head towards March the pattern looks to remain unsettled.   High pressure, which has been camped out for almost two full months in and around the west coast is building back in, but will retreat some to the west as we head into March allowing for some storms to dive in on the back side - like October/December, however these storms will have less moisture to work with.  That said, we will take anything we can get.   Swell production wise - the N Pac is active and we will start to see progressively larger swell trains as we head into the weekend and following week.   Forerunners of this coming weekend swell will run in Friday night - 2ft at 24 seconds to start!  Saturday should start out 7-9 ft, long periods with swell maxing on Sunday at 10-12ft, long periods.   Winds look to drop off briefly Friday, but ramp back up Saturday from the south 15-20 kts, and Sunday, 10-15 kts from the south as we have a chance of rain starting Saturday.   Upshot, lot of weather in our forecast along with swell.  Should be stuff to ride if you know where to look!  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - FEB 11

 Small west swells to move through the waters and light winds until Monday.   A storm system will drop down the west coast Monday into Tuesday - northwest winds will increase strongly behind front passage and last through mid week at least.  Meager amounts of rain down to about the Mendo/Sonoma County line is all we will squeeze out of this one.  High pressure builds back in behind it - at least until next weekend and then we might see the pattern change the models have been hinting at for 4-6 weeks now.  Should see some big wind swell Monday and Tuesday, larger long period northwest swell looks to roll in next Wednesday.  Overall, waves around, might favor the beach breaks this weekend with the smaller size.  Cya in the water. 

FEBRUARY IS THE NEW APRIL

Well, it sure looks like spring time even though Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow which means six more weeks of winter.  No rain in sight through Mid Feb.   Long term predictions still show some sign of hope later in the month - lets hope those models are right.  Otherwise we are about to enter the 2nd driest period on record over the course of a winter.  The driest?  1976 drought induced winter.   Otherwise - we have a lot of wind, lot of wind swell and cold water as the temps are dropping fast.   There are some small nw swells moving through the waters this week, but hardly noticeable due to the dominant wind swell.  You can probably find some places to ride that are sheltered from the nw wind and like big steep wind swell.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 1-14

 Quick note that the California Buoy is back in place and reporting again.  This is a good intermediate buoy between the Papa Buoy and our offshore buoys to get a good sense of incoming swell trains and swell decay.   The large swell of the past week is fading some today, but still solid up north (11ft @11-12 sec), smaller SF Area to Santa Cruz.   Swell will hold today and a new west swell will run in under starting at 2ft@21 seconds.   Strong north winds over the outer waters will fade tonight and the weekend looks really nice with fun size north and west swells 7-9 ft at 14 sec and 2-3 at 16 sec.  Direction about 295 to 305.  MLK Day looks smaller and still very clean with the winds.  No rain in sight until end of Jan as we are locked down under high pressure again.   There are signs as we move into February the pattern will change again and may remain stormy well into March.   So enjoy the nice run of weather and swells from far away storms.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 12-20

Stormy week ahead as low pressure sits offshore and spins waves of rain through CA.   Very strong south to southeast winds look like the rule through mid week - then changing to west winds on Thursday and Friday.   Look for good size south wind swell to develop starting today - mixed in with periods of longer period northwest swell through the week.  Things may clean up some towards Christmas - until then if you have a spot that likes south winds and south wind swell - that's your call.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-7

Storm door has opened again after a long dry spell.  Series of fronts will push through well into next week with the strongest storm looking like it will happen late in the weekend into Monday.   Swell looks to stay quite small actually until Thursday/Friday when a new northwest swell train starts to hit the Coast, look for deepwater heights on Friday of 10-12 ft.  We will see a lot of wind with these next few systems, cold winds from the northwest and cold temps later in the week - in other words - Winter in Nor Cal!  Spots with some protection from the wind will be the best bet.   Looking ahead into Mid December the N Pac is going to stay active and we will likely see an increase in larger swells to follow.   More on that to come.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 11-19

New mid period swell slowly filling in today - 8-10ft at 11-13 seconds.  Winds have switched to the north with the passage of the low pressure system that came through.   Look for north winds on Saturday, switching to northeast Sunday.   Swell will come down a notch Saturday - 7-9ft, and drop further on Sunday, 6-8ft.   Swell looks to stay fairly tame into the start of Thanksgiving week - and light winds at least on Monday.  Winds and swell might tick up some on Tuesday.    High pressure should maintain control of our weather pattern through next weekend.  Signs of a stronger storm track on the horizon for early December when the pattern might start to get stormy again.   Until then, fun size surf to ride - check the winds.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 11-8

 Incoming storm tonight will drop copious amounts of rain through tomorrow and then we will dry out for a while as high pressure builds.   Swell is only 7-8ft at 12 seconds.   Winds will pick up strong out of the southeast as the day goes on and get very strong tonight.   Looking for swell to stay in the 9ft plus zone through Wednesday, then slow fade into Friday getting fairly small by then (4-6ft).   Variable winds the next few days, southeast to west - then turning north as we head into the weekend.  So, surf around if you know where to look with the changing winds.   Cya in the water. 

40 ft at 16 seconds!

Papa Buoy is showing 40ft at 16 seconds - let that sink in for a bit.   That is in vicinity of where our current storm is bottoming out (or bomb cyclone) as the forecasters like to call it - when the pressure drops  24 millibars in 24 hours, which our current storm almost doubled that!   Anyway - that's the swell inbound for tonight and as we start the week.  Not that surfing conditions our ideal - it's a mess out there and probably crazy to drive anywhere on the Coast.   Give it a few days as high pressure looks to re build mid week.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-23 - BIG AND STORMY

 Super charged N Pac Jetstream is sending a wave of early season storms to the West Coast.  La Nina is back for year two, but because it's displaced further West this season, the storm track is riding up and over and delivering much needed rain and snow to CA.  It's also delivering XXL surf, south winds and slop.  The next giant swell train lands Sunday night - 18-20ft at 18 seconds with SW winds and an atmospheric river (AR) event, first decent one of the season and best we've seen in a long while - that will deliver copious amounts of rain to the entire region.   Swell will max out Monday - 23-25ft at 18 seconds!  Slow fade into mid week when high pressure finally builds in giving us a break.   Next Wednesday might be the first surf day for many (most likely for me) when we get north winds and more mortal size surf in the 9-11 ft range.  Until then, there are some spots that will harness this kind of size and swell if you know where to look.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-11

It's windy and raw over the open ocean this morning as north to northwest winds drive down CA along with a dry "inside slider" cold front.   Ocean has responded and wind swell has jacked up 10ft plus and water temps are tumbling far north - already back to 52 and falling.   Look for big wind swell and some northwest swell mixed in all week - not clean unless you hit a south facing point that can handle the wind and sort out of the confusion.  Not really seeing any break in the winds the entire week, no rain in sight either as high pressure maintains control over CA.   Cya in the water.   

BIG NORTHWEST SWELL AND WIND

 Northern Buoys reading 14ft @14 from 310.  Swell is peaking tonight and will begin a slow fade into the weekend.   Unfortunately northwest winds have come in behind the front that departed yesterday and look to stick around most of the week.  Plenty of swell to ride, just need to find shelter from the winds.  Water temps have been warm but may begin to drop with the non stop winds over the outer waters.  Cya in the water.  

N Pac Awakes

 Solid Gulf of Alaska swell in the water today, built in overnight.  Running 6-10 ft from 310 (steep angle) at 14 seconds, larger north of the Sonoma Coast.  Winds are north to offshore.   Winds may not be much of a factor the next two days and then transition to more onshore - then back to north or offshore into the weekend.  Warm temps all the way to the Coast.  Fall.   Swell should stick around a good chunk of the week.  Cya in the water. 

GOOD RUN OF SOUTH SWELL COMING UP, GULF SWELL TOO....

 Proverbial calm before the storm.  Significant south swell trains inbound starting late Saturday and lasting through most of next week.   The first pulse late Saturday will start at 1.5ft at 20 sec from 200, building more on Sunday while a second pulse builds in on top at 2ft 19 seconds from 195.   At the same time, a small Gulf swell will run in Sunday to Monday - about 4ft at 12-13 seconds from 310.   Small, but fun.   Monday into Tuesday, third pulse of southern hemi builds at 2ft at 21 sec from 185.  Swell should gradually fade mid week on but still feature plenty to ride.  Winds will probably stay out of the northwest, but may also blow south to southwest depending on fog development through the period.  Northwest winds will be strongest over the outer waters.  Probably be some windows of decent conditions especially at certain spots up and down the Coast.   N Pac will stir more over the weekend into next week, fall pattern trying to set up shop.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - SOUTH SWELLS AND SOME GULF ACTION

 New south swell is peaking today and tomorrow - running around 2ft at 18 from 190.  We also have an early season Gulf of Alaska wind swell in from a small storm that ran under the Aleutians late last week.  It's 3-6 ft at 11 seconds (bigger north of Bodega) from 310.  Winds are mostly light south/southeast.   South swell will fade out tomorrow, wind swell to continue and period to drop as well.   Winds should stay pretty decent throughout the upcoming week - stronger northwest winds outer waters, variable winds near shore depending on fog coverage.   N Pac is trying to get started, but no significant swell makers yet.   Cya in the water.  

SEPTEMBER!

 Welcome to the 2021/2022 season.   Made it through another summer.   Not much on the charts unfortunately - consistent wind swell will provide something to ride at least, with a series of smaller south swells looking likely this coming weekend and beyond - but far from epic.  Keeping an eye on the N Pac for more signs of life and will update as needed.  Let's hope we have a calm fall around here fire wise - we have enough damage being done in the Sierra.    Cya in the water.  

September looms.....

Mid August.   The last couple weeks of summer upon us.  Not really much going on this week but starting to keep an eye on the N Pac where the jet stream is showing signs of life.  It does appear that we might have some early season energy coming from that direction in the next week or so.   Until then, very small southwest swells due in later this week - Friday to Monday - but really just dribbles.   Winds not bad, the thick blanket of fog - more normal fog coverage for summer in Nor Cal - is keeping light south to southwest winds along the coast.  Will update when i  see more action from the Gulf of Alaska and resume regular updates in September.  Cya in the water.  

SOLID NZ SOUTH

 New run of south swell in the water with the main event hitting today and tomorrow.  Swell is from a strong storm that was down near New Zealand, usually a pretty favorable location for us with swell direction 185-195.   Seeing some 3ft at 20 sec energy as the swell overtakes the early south swell that is still showing with energy at 2-3 ft at 15 seconds.   NZ swell will take over today and peak tomorrow at 3ft at 17 seconds.  Still decent on Wednesday and then fade out Thursday.  Fog is in, winds are light south to southeast for the next few days at the coast.  Winds will switch NE to NW mid week and beyond, yet remain pretty light in the 5-15kts range.  Go surf.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - South Swell run

 Decent run of south swell underway which might last until the end of the month.  Storm activity Down Under has been quite strong the past week and forecast to continue.  Current group of swells will run through Sunday and beyond with the two larger swells starting late Friday and again on Sunday.   We should see decent deepwater numbers in the 2-4ft range 17-19 seconds, 195-205 deg.   Fog has returned, so winds have been light south and should keep that way for a few days.   Models are forecasting north to northwest winds to increase into the weekend, but think that will be over the outer waters, nearshore may remain under the influence of south winds and fog.  Keep an eye on it.   Plenty to ride.   Cya in the water. 

Run of South Swell....

Modest run of southerly/southwest swells ramps up today and should continue into the next week.  Deepwater swell readings this am showing swell 2-2.5 ft at 17 seconds from 205-210.  Today should be the peak of this first swell, fading some into tomorrow while more storms are lining up in the South Pac and will send energy in our direction.   Winds don't look that bad for April, light/variable to light northwest the next few days.  May pick up a bit over the outer waters over the weekend.  Water temps remain very cold - low 50s to upper 40s (far north).   Get some.  Cya in the water. 

Buoys are back online!

 Looks like our buoys have come back online - whatever technical issue resolved.   Not sure about you but I  felt lost without them.....

**BUOYS ARE ALL OFFLINE....

 It appears NOAA is having some issues with their buoy stations - Russian hack maybe?  Ha.  

Use the CDIP Buoys link on the right side of the page under the Forecast Links banner.   Cya in the water.  

MARCH LOOMS....

Already feels like spring and certainly the northwest winds over the ocean spell doom for good waves at most breaks.   Sadly, March 1 is Monday and the traditional end to the "good" wave season in Nor Cal.   Was an interesting winter to stay the least.   I'll keep after reports through the spring and summer when conditions warrant - like a good run of south swell or light winds.   Otherwise - more regular reports will return September 1.   La Nina looks to fade over the summer so hopefully we will have a bit more storm activity next year and less wind.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 2-19

 Yo yo!  Sorry for the long lag between updates!  Surf has been fun the past day, off season long period southwest swell gracing our shores combined with a fun size west swell.   Southwest is around 2ft @16 today, West swell is around 4-6 @13.   Winds are light north to northwest at the moment - will probably ramp up a bit more from the northwest as the day goes on.   Look for an increase in north winds over the next few days as high pressure builds and the storm track heads to the north.  Large NW swell tomorrow - 12 to 14 ft at 13 seconds as south fades.   Size quickly drops Sunday, 7-9 ft at 12 and then ramps back up for Monday to Tuesday at 8-10ft.   Really strong winds Monday and Tuesday from the north - strongest outer waters and north of Bodega Bay.   So plenty to ride, check your winds.  Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 2-2

 Fairly mellow week ahead compared to the past few weeks.  Swell is 8@14 sec this morning with southwest to west winds.   Storm from yesterday will continue to pass through the area.   Another shot of rain comes in Wednesday - strongest north of Sonoma, along with northwest winds which will then remain fairly strong until Friday.   Swell will linger in the 5-8 ft range through Friday.   Winds Thursday and Friday might be offshore for AM sessions around the Bay Area, but check first.   Cya in the water.  

ONE MORE LARGE SWELL MID WEEK....

Giant swell from yesterday winding down this morning but still quite solid - 11@15 seconds.  That swell had a peak wave recorded at the SE Papa Buoy  of over 40ft at 18 seconds two nights back.   Tuesday looking for rain and south winds north of Sonoma County (may get rain northwest Sonoma and for sure all of Mendo) and new swell at 10-12 ft @21 seconds.  That swell will peak Wednesday at 13-15 ft @17 seconds.   Swell direction 298-300.  Smallest day in a while looks to be Thursday at 7-9ft, increasing again by Friday.   The N Pac remains active so we do have more large swells on the horizon for mid month and beyond.  Winds will trend south first part of the week due to CA proximity to an atmospheric river hitting Oregon and far N Cal - then switch northwest mid week and beyond - but these will be mostly outer water winds, actual winds near the coast could trend north to northeast (offshore) especially for Bay Area later in the week with high pressure in control.   Plenty to ride, even some manageable days this week for us mortals.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED HOLIDAY FORECAST

Staying pretty large this week as rain and swell roll throughout CA.   We are on the downside of a fairly large northwest swell running at 10ft 15 sec from 290 deg with northeast winds for offshore conditions at most spots.  Swell will wind down just a touch tomorrow - but staying around 9-10 ft at 13 seconds.  Wednesday, the next large swell builds at 8-10ft at 21 seconds - peaking Thursday at 15-17ft from 295 to 305 degrees.  Note all these swells largest north of Pt Reyes, especially the mid week swell which will be shadowed a bit by Pt Reyes and the Farallon Islands.  Mid week swell will do a slow fade into the New Years weekend but stay on the larger side through the period.   Winds are going to be highly variable as we have brief breaks of high pressure and systems coming ashore - so look for south winds as front approaches and north to northwest winds as front passes.  Could see some light offshore winds for AM sessions.   Next chance of rain is mostly North Bay mid week, followed by another storm late week and late weekend.  So the pattern is pretty progressive.  Stay safe out there, wear a mask and cya in the water.  

STAYING BIG.....

 N Pac keeps pumping out swell - new swell filled in overnight and is peaking today at around 12-15ft @17 seconds from 305.  Quite solid.  Winds aren't bad in the Bay Area, but rain and south wind the rule north of Bodega Bay spreading south through Wednesday night.   Swell will start to fade some on Thursday - 10-12 ft as period drops to 13 sec.   By Friday, new long period forerunners of our next swell show at 6-8ft at 18 seconds, while the old swell sticks around at 9-11 ft.   Saturday/Sunday should feature high pressure, lighter winds, surf both days around 8-10 ft.   So plenty to ride - after the rain today/tonight - high pressure looks to build in for the rest of the week.   Might see an uptick in northwest winds Thursday/Friday.   Be safe out there, cya in the water.   

PUMPING....

 Current swell is 12-14 ft at 17 seconds - mix of wind conditions depending on where you are.   For the most part north to northeast winds.   Swell will gradually fade overnight and be around on Wednesday as a new, even longer period swell starts to run in.   That swell will have early forerunners 2-4 ft at 23 seconds - quickly building to 6-8 ft at 22 seconds Wednesday evening.   Thursday will be large - 11-13 ft at 20 seconds and then being a slow fade into Friday and next weekend.   Swell direction around 290-308 degrees.  All n all winds don't look that bad the rest of the week with high pressure firmly in control.  No rain in sight through at least mid December.  Plenty of surf on tap - cya in the water. 

CLEAN CONDITIONS...TRACKING XL SWELL FOR THANKSGIVING

Super clean this weekend with mid period northwest swell around 5-6 ft at 12-13 seconds.  East winds.  High pressure in control for the next week with the storm track along the Oregon border.   Look for an uptick in size for Sunday - 6-7 ft and bigger still for Monday at 9-11ft - then all eyes on mid week as models are forecasting a very large swell to impact our waters around Wednesday.   Early indications are for deepwater swell in the 18ft range north of Bodega Bay, probably 14-16ft around the Bay Area.   With north winds through next week AM sessions should feature clean conditions, while PM sessions will see more wind, maybe onshore at times.   Overall, plenty to ride.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - XL SWELL CONTINUES....

XL swell continues today - but down from yesterday's peak at 20 ft @14 seconds!   It's running 12-14 ft at 13 seconds today from 325.  Strong north to northwest winds making a mess of everything except for spots sheltered from the nw winds.  Swell will begin to fade tonight and more so on Monday, dropping to 9-11 ft and then additional fade through Thursday but still staying rideable in the 5-7ft range.   Winds will back down some tomorrow but still be gusty, fade more Tuesday into Thursday.   Storm door looks to open more next weekend and into Mid Nov - with much higher amounts of rain now forecast - so may have a period of junky storm surf with south winds next week.   Until then, plenty to ride.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - HALLOWEEN

 Waiting on the next swell train(s) to arrive which will happen tomorrow.  Today should feature mostly short period junky wind swell and probably some north to northwest winds with it.  Winds lighter near shore this morning, so if you had to get wet - now would be the time.  Sunday will start out slow again and then look for early forerunners in the afternoon (mostly Sonoma Coast north), evening Bay Area, around 3-5ft at 23 seconds.  Swell will quickly build Sunday night, period drops and Monday should see northwest swell about 5-7 ft at 18 seconds.   At the same time there is a long period south swell due to show at 2ft @20 seconds.  After today, winds look decent until Wednesday.  Swells should begin to fade on Tuesday but the northwest swell might linger.  N swell direction around 300, S swell around 188.  So should be a nice run of clean long period swells, nothing huge, fun size.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-16

Hope you like the blog refresh - long overdue for an update.   Nice fall day across the area with east winds, warm temps - mid period northwest swell in the water - about 5-6 ft at 11 seconds, steep angle at 325 deg.  North winds going to remain in the picture for at least the next seven days as high pressure remains locked over CA.   Storm track is not very active, but the winds and distant storms enough to keep mid period swells around 10-11 sec coming in.   Maybe an uptick Saturday, but otherwise should stay around 4-6 ft through the period.  Background south swells in the picture as well - nothing over 2ft, but longer periods 14-18 seconds through Monday.   Winds will be better for morning sessions, bit more onshore flow for pm sessions.  Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST - MORE SWELL FOR A FEW DAYS....

Sorry about the lack of updates - surfing too much!  Hope you got some over the past week as northwest and southwest swells crossed our shores.  We are starting to see the arrival of swell from Hurricane Marie, which should max out tomorrow through Wednesday at 3-4 ft at 13 seconds (deepwater) from 180.   We also have a northwest Gulf swell in the water at 6ft at 13 seconds from 290.   Marie swell will show late and into overnight and be more present Monday - especially in the Bay Area.  Gulf swell will slowly fade through Wednesday.  Winds look fairly typical for October - light northeast to northwest.   As we head into next weekend looks like a major pattern change will begin to take place giving us badly needed and first rainfall of the season as a low pressure system drops across the West Coast entraining remnants from Hurricane Marie in the process.   Winds should pick up strong from the south late week.   N Pac is going to stay active so look for more swell into October.  Cya in the water. 

FIRST BIG NW SWELL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

 Tracking a big storm system with a dynamic fetch moving out of the Bering Sea and into the Gulf of Alaska this morning.  Dynamic fetch means the storm wind & swell are moving in the same direction which usually leads to large wave heights.  Models are forecasting deepwater swell of 14ft at 15 seconds starting Thursday.   Still a bit early, but will dial in more closely over the next 48 hours.  I've added a new buoy to the forecast links - Gulf of Alaska Buoy.   Note that West Oregon and Papa Buoys remain offline and need to be repositioned by NOAA once they are back on the schedule.  That means the CA Buoy will be our outer water buoy for the start to the season.   The Gulf of AK buoy will give a sense of ocean swell far out in the N Pac.  Generally small swell until mid week - perhaps a slight increase in wind swell over the next few days and very small south in the background.  Winds look variable depending on fog intrusion and ongoing high pressure vs low pressure in our region.   Southwest to northwest depending on your location.   

UPDATED FORECAST SEPT 15

 New mid period Gulf of AK swell filling in slowly this am - buoys are showing 4-6ft at 11 seconds of deepwater swell.  This one will peak overnight and begin a slow fade through the week.  Winds look to remain mostly light through the week - don't see an uptick until the weekend with offshore and/or northwest flow gets going as low pressure moves into the Great Basin and we get those winds rushing from low pressure to high pressure.  Gonna stay sort of small all week.  Starting to see more signs of N Pac swell late in September as well as tracking a few more southwest swells.  We may close out the month with some decent surf.  More to come on that.  Cya in the water.  

SEPTEMBER!

We made it through another Nor Cal summer.  Certainly a summer like none before.   On cue, we have our first small northwest swell due in here mid week - deepwater swell 4-6 at 15 seconds from 310 starting Wednesday night, peaking Thursday at 4-6 ft at 13 seconds.  Background south swells through the week around two feet.   Winds look to remain light south to northwest on and off through the week - may strengthen out of the northwest for the weekend.   Cya in the water.  

SEPTEMBER LOOMS....

 Hope everyone is safe and experienced no loss due to the fires that continue to burn across Nor Cal.   The weather over the past few days has helped immensely and firefighters are getting containment lines around most of the major blazes.  Surf wise, as we move close to September keeping an eye on the Nor Pac for signs of life.   Nothing on the maps yet, just northwest winds and larger wind swell for the rest of the week.   Small south swell is in the water but mostly lost under the dominant wind and steep wind swell.  It does appear likely we are moving into La Nina this year - which does not bode well for rain production or a lot of major swells.   Think we might see an early season of rain, especially north of Sonoma County, but as we move well into fall and winter forecasts call for normal to below normal amounts.   Since La Nina winters tend to be drier and colder, we could see more clean days, smaller to mid size surf.   Like all of you, will have to see how things unfold.  I'll update as we move into September.  Until then, be safe and I'll cya in the water.  

FOG-AUGUST - Updated Forecast

Tiny signs of hope for some swell late this weekend into early next week from the south.   Swell is radiating north from a storm that was down in the southeast Pacific late July into early August.  Expect arrival late on Sunday with deep water swell tiny but long period - 1-2 at 20 seconds from 183.   Swell will build and peak Monday at 2-2.6ft at 17-18 seconds and then she is gone.  Could see a couple more storms form and send swell our way for Mid August - just a model hope right now, if the storms behave as forecast they will get going starting this Friday through the weekend.   Will monitor.   Models also hinting at a Gulf of Alaska low pressure system starting tomorrow into Friday, that could potentially send swell our way.  Did notice a surface low pressure this morning forming in the Gulf so we might get some early season action from northeast Pacific in a few days.  Will also monitor.  Otherwise, look for north to northwest winds and fog to remain strong through the week - could see winds ease this weekend.   Cya in the water.   

END OF JULY

Basically wind swell and small background south swells for the foreseeable future.   Ocean has warmed up with all the south wind and fog - mid to upper 50s most spots.   Look for fog and south to southwest flow to continue through end of the week.  Models are hinting at stronger northwest winds starting up again by the weekend - but not sure i'm buying into it.  The marine layer is pretty established so we may continue to see fog and south winds for a while.   Keep an eye on it.  If the northwest winds get going as forecast, might see an uptick in wind swell at least - but could also trash conditions.  Looking into the future - might see some southern hemisphere swell getting into 2nd week of August/mid August as storm activity picks up down south.  Looking more and more like fall and winter will be under the influence of a mild La Nina or neutral pattern.   That may have an impact on swell production in terms of size, but potentially nicer days condition wise.  These winters typically lean towards equal chance of normal or below normal precipitation, which isn't ideal given the dry winter past.   Have to see how it plays out.  In the meantime - small surf, lighter winds, favors the beach breaks that like south wind.  Cya in the water.  

July doldrums.....

Wind swell is about all we have right now for any kind of wave to ride.  It's around 4-7 ft at 9-11 seconds depending on location - bigger northern part of the state.   Winds aren't bad today, blowing out of the northeast but will head back to the northwest/north direction tonight for points north of Jenner, might stay south to southwest for points south.  No sign of any southern hemisphere ground swell.   La Nina appears to be taking hold along the equator pushing east to west, which doesn't bode well for storm and swell production this coming fall.  Have to wait and see how it develops.  We could be looking at another fairly dry winter which is something we don't need.   La Nina winters tend to feature nicer weather for surfing, but less frequency of swells and size.  Water temps remain cool to the north, low 50s and mid 50s to even some low 60s SF south.   Hang in there, only another month and some change until September 1, the traditional start to the good surf season in Nor Cal.   Cya in the water.  

GOOD SIZE SOUTH SWELL PUSHING IN LATE TONIGHT

Just in time for all the beaches to shut down from LA to Sonoma, solid south swell will be pushing in starting late tonight and lasting through Sunday.   Still have a decent pulse of the old south in the water this morning - 2-2.5ft at 17 from 190.  Some steep angled north wind swell at 6@10sec from 320.   Winds have shifted mostly south along the coast.   Late tonight early forerunners will be 2ft at 22 seconds, filling in Friday at 2-3 at 21 seconds.   Saturday, period drops and size should actually increase - 3-4ft at 18 seconds.   Swell direction about 192-195.   Winds should turn northwest for late week and into the weekend - but perhaps not as strong as earlier this week.   Could see this fluctuate with the marine layer established and south flow near the coast.   Check in the winds, plenty of swell to ride.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - WINDY!

June in Nor Cal.  Wind and more wind.  We might see a big increase in the size of the wind swell the next couple days - especially north of Bodega Bay.   Also tracking a couple small south to south east swells to come in late week, on the small side, 2ft or so, but long periods.  Might be enough for south facing spots to have some fun waves if the swell trains don't get hammered coming in against the northwest winds.  Get what you can, long way to go until Fall.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - END OF MAY IS ACTIVE

While northwest winds have been savage, looking towards tomorrow into the weekend, they will begin to shift east to south as a low pressure system approaches the CA Coast bringing a chance of thunderstorms and rain on and off through late Saturday.   We have two new south swells building today - one from 200 deg and the other from 188.   The second, steeper swell looks potentially pretty fun with deepwater swell forecast at 3ft plus with long periods initially at 19-20 seconds Friday dropping into Saturday.   The more "west" south, a touch smaller but long periods from Thursday to Friday.   At the same time, very active North Pacific is sending a pulse of northwest swell from 298 deg, building late Friday and fading into Sunday.   That swell will be biggest north, 6-8 ft at 14 seconds Friday into Saturday.   Northwest winds will return by Sunday.   More action from the southern hemisphere looks to continue into the first week of June.  Plenty of surf on tap, some weather,  better winds.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - 5-16

Another late season storm system will come onshore later today with rain and south wind into Monday.   Long period south swell is not showing at buoys yet, but is forecast to build later today starting at 2ft 21 seconds.  From the looks of it, very late.  South sticks around and fills in tomorrow, while at the same time the first of a series of west swells also builds.   The first, will come in around 5 ft at 14-15 seconds, the second, 5ft at 11 seconds.  Both west swells from around 295 degrees.   The south from 200-204 deg. Winds are probably gonna be the lightest today from the south.  Switching to southwest to west tomorrow and Monday.  Then back to typical northwest flow.   So, plenty to ride, winds might make it tricky.  Be safe and make sure to stay at least six feet from others when outside.  Cya in the water.

BACK AT IT - UPDATED FORECAST

Hope everyone is safe and sane.  As a few more places to surf are coming online, felt it was a good time to start updating again.  We do have a pretty decent south/southeast swell headed our way, in the water and moving north.   Probably see some early forerunners very late Friday (and possibly overnight) and then starting to fill in Saturday at 2-3ft at 19 seconds - from about 195.  Swell will fill in more Sunday and Monday with deep water heights pushing 3-4 feet at 15-18 seconds.  So could be quite solid.  Winds actually will start to wind down some headed into the weekend - light northwest on Saturday, changing to light southwest for Sunday and south on Monday.  Southern wind shifts as a result of a pretty impressive late season storm that will come onshore Monday into Wednesday with a decent soaking rain region wide - especially North Bay and points north.  Have a persistent northwest swell hanging around through the period - 5-8 feet (bigger north) at 11-13 seconds.   So plenty to ride, check you winds and be safe out there.  Cya in the water.

NO SURF FOR YOU

Well, good luck surfing as most Bay Area Counties and elsewhere have closed the beaches.   At least it's Spring, can't expect very good surf for the foreseeable future as it is.   If you can walk or ride a bike to the beach, it would appear you're ok.   Just practice social distancing and use your head.   You may notice a lot of the offshore buoys are offline or not reporting.   Seems like the system is falling into disrepair - hoping that NOAA fixes and has everything back up before next Fall.   Stay safe and hang in there.   I'm taking a hiatus from reports until we get the all clear.  

MARCH

And just like that, the winter surfing season is about done - or is it? The N Pac still shows some signs of life at least through mid month and then after that - we will likely be fully into Spring.  Relentless north winds are going to keep blowing until at least tonight, and then gradually release their hold on us through the end of the week with a definitive shift in the wind direction to the south and southeast as a Gulf of AK low pressure systems sets it's course towards us.  Not much rain expected sadly, but we might see some from late Friday through Saturday.  Couple of mid period northwest swells will move through the waters - one today, 8-9ft at 14 seconds and another Friday at 9-11 at 15 seconds (deep water).   Southern hemisphere swells look to pick up towards mid month as well, since the S Pac has been very active as they start into Fall Down Under and we transition to Spring.  So plenty of swell around and lighter winds for a change.  Cya in the water.

SPRING? UPDATED FORECAST 2-19

High pressure in control and a month without rain.  Looking like this February will go down as the driest on record unless we get some precipitation between now and the end of month.  Surf conditions aren't much better - small waves, spring time winds, especially north of Bay Area.   We should see a few days of lighter winds starting today and tomorrow but then they will ramp back up Friday into the weekend.  Small swell today, 3-4 at 9-13 seconds - couple of swells in the water, wind swell and a very small northwest.  Similar size tomorrow, with perhaps a very small southwest joining in to remind us that season is around the corner - 2ft @15 seconds or so.  Northwest swell will increase Friday into the weekend - so might have more size by then - but the winds will remain.   Very small chance of rain over the weekend - but mainly Mendocino County north.  Nothing in the Bay Area.  Might see a pattern change as we move into March, bringing us some wetter weather for a period of time but then after that high pressure will probably take over and we will be into the northwest wind, dry season.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 2-3

Very cold temps this morning region wide in wake of yesterday's front passage.  High pressure builds in for the week leaving us cold, dry and windy.   Swell is raw and large this AM, 14ft @13 seconds from a very steep 320 deg.   Look for strong north winds all week long.  Cold water temps a result.  Swell will stay above 8 ft through Wednesday night and then gradually fade through the back half of the week.  Plenty to ride, just need some wind protection.  See you in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 1-20

Break between large swells today - deepwater is running 8ft at 13 sec from 300.   Rain and wind will return tonight into Tuesday - spreading north to south with fairly strong south winds.  Next swell will be in at 11-13ft at 18 seconds overnight and peak Tuesday into Wednesday overnight.   Brief fade on Thursday and then things ramp back up Friday with more swell and a potentially very large swell for the weekend.  South to southeast to southwest winds through the week depending on your location.  Weather will remain unsettled through next weekend with better chances for rain north off Sonoma County.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 1-11

Large, raw northwest swell will sweep down the coast late today - will peak overnight at 18-20ft at 18 seconds - very steep angle.   Northwest winds are gonna howl for pretty much the next week, along with bouts of west winds and perhaps some south as various storm systems come ashore.  The trajectory on all these storms (and swell) is out of the Eastern Gulf of Alaska/BC as that's how the storm track/jet stream is set up with lingering high pressure to our east and south offshore.   Storms will get progressively wetter through mid week.   Swell should stay above 10 ft the next 5-7 days. Plenty to ride, hide from the winds, wear a lot of rubber as it's going to get much colder through the period.  Cya in the water.

BACK TO BACK TO BACK LONG PERIOD SWELLS

First in a series of large west swells hitting the outer buoys at 15ft @14 seconds.  Swell will fill in all afternoon and overnight and be quite solid in the am.  Next swell will quickly follow on New Years Day, 11-13ft @ 21 seconds - very solid with a reinforcing shot New Years Night at 14-15ft @19 seconds.  Swell will stay solid through Friday, fading some Friday into the 8-10 ft range.  Wind forecasts are still predicting strong north to northwest winds, but feel the majority of the wind will be in our outer waters.   Near shore could see lighter winds each morning this week.  Keep an eye on it.  Plenty to ride, not much rain this week as high pressure holds on.   Most rain should stay north of Cape Mendo.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST, CHRISTMAS EVE

Small northwest left overs today, surf running around 8ft at 12 seconds from 310.   Winds are light northwest and will switch to southwest this pm as a new front comes ashore bringing rain.   New swell will arrive tomorrow and be quite solid from the get go - 8-10ft @19 seconds.  Pulsing up further on Thursday at 12-14ft @17 seconds.  Size will then drop Friday, 6-8ft.  Tomorrow should be pretty epic at certain breaks that like northeast winds and large swells.  Classic December day.  North winds forecast Thursday and Friday.   Light west winds next Saturday.  Chances of rain here and there through the week.  Happy Holidays to all.   Cya in the water.  

LARGE AND STAYING LARGE

Our current west/northwest swell is maxing today at 14-15ft @15-18seconds from 290.  It will stay large into tomorrow and Sunday before a gradual fade Monday and Tuesday.  Storm track is just to the north of Sonoma County which will bring bouts of rain through Saturday along with south to southeast winds.  Winds may change to the northwest on Sunday and then blow from the east Monday and southeast for next Tuesday.   In short, winter in Nor Cal - plenty of surf, some tricky winds but plenty of spots rideable if you know your locations.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST

Stormy pattern about start up again Friday and last through Sunday.   Winds are clean this morning as they have been the past couple of mornings with east to southeast flow.  Mid period WNW swell peaking today at around 6ft 13sec from 310.   New, larger long period swell will start to build into Friday and peak overnight at 10-12 ft @17 seconds.  This swell will have a more westerly direction.   Plenty of size around Saturday as period drops to 13 seconds.  Swell slowly fades Sunday into Monday.   Winds will remain southeast to south through Saturday.  Changing to southwest Saturday night and light northwest for Sunday.   More rain forecast for perhaps Tuesday of next week.  Go surf and cya in the water.

HERE WE GO - XXL SURF THIS WEEK

First major winter storm of the year is approaching OR/CA this afternoon.  This weather system is essentially going to "bomb" off the North Coast late tomorrow, with perhaps all time low mb pressure for the date of 978mb set back in 2010.  Forecast calling for 975mb.  Given the winds, close proximity of the storm center - look for giant surf late Tuesday into Wednesday night - wave heights approaching 30-35 ft Mendocino County north.  Deepwater will be 23-25ft at 17 seconds - quite impressive.  Swell will stay on the XL side until Thanksgiving, then things will fall back to more mortal heights 9-11 ft on Turkey Day, 6-8 ft on Friday.  Lots of crazy wind coming, from all directions.   Badly needed rainfall will be a welcome sight and should be heavy at times.  Might be some spots to surf but don't look for anything very clean until later this week.  Happy Thanksgiving and cya in the water!

NEXT SWELL IN THE CUE

Cape Mendo Buoy showing early signs of our next swell.  5ft plus at 20 seconds.  Swell will filter down the Coast all day while filling in and be solid by Saturday morning.  Saturday and Sunday will feature deep water swell in the 9-12 ft range at 17-19 seconds.  Winds look decent the next few days. East winds this morning.  Light northwest tomorrow and into Sunday, stronger over the outer waters. Look for a run of swell to come well into next week as the N Pac is getting very active.   We should see our first real soaking rain of the Fall beginning about Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.  Cya in the water.

UPDATE ON INBOUND SWELL

Long period forerunners will start late Thursday into Thursday evening.   Probably 8ft @19 to start.  Swell direction will be 296-300 - partially shadowed in the Bay Area.  Swell will peak Friday at 8-12 ft @17 seconds.  Gradual fade into the weekend but decent size still on Saturday.  Winds look fairly light Thursday and Friday, perhaps an increase in north to northwest winds for Saturday and Sunday - but AM sessions and near shore areas might still be decent.   Cya in the water.

MID PERIOD SWELLS, LARGE SWELL END OF NEXT WEEK

Today through Thursday - back to back mid period west/northwest swells - 3-6ft - 13-15 seconds should be the rule with winds remaining fairly light for the morning sessions.  Might see stronger winds in the afternoons.  A very large area of low pressure is currently filling the North Pacific from a spot northwest of the Hawaiian Islands.  This will be our swell maker for Friday and next weekend with very large surf possible.   Right now could see long period forerunners on Thursday, then the swell fills in more on Friday.   I  will dial it in a bit further as we get into the week but certainly going to see double to triple overhead waves at the top winter breaks from the Bay Area north.   Stay tuned, cya in the water.

SMALL AND CLEAN

Small west/northwest swell for the week ahead.  Clean skies, light winds and no rain in sight.  That means no storm production for swell either until the jetstream starts to track west.   Things might change mid month.  Until then enjoy this fall weather.   Cya in the water.

FINE TUNING INCOMING SWELL....

Swell started hitting the Papa Buoy about 630 last night - Papa is 600 miles northwest of Eureka.  Deep water swell 12-16 ft at 14-15 seconds.  Solid, perhaps a touch smaller than models predicted.  Given timing, won't see any of this swell today - perhaps early forerunners before sunset.   Swell will fill in overnight and then be solid on Thursday and Friday.  Light winds today, stronger northwest tomorrow and then turning light again into the weekend.  Cya in the water.

HERE WE GO....

New swell filled in overnight - running around 8-9ft at 11-12 seconds from 310 plus.  This is the warm up act to a much larger swell due in Wednesday.  This next swell will be the biggest of the Fall so far - with surf heights pushing 17-20 ft Wednesday into Thursday.  Smaller Bay Area, larger north of Bodega Bay.   Winds look fairly light the next few days - then will ramp up Thursday into Friday.  Unsettled conditions will arrive Wednesday as well - with rain likely north of Sonoma Country through the end of the week.  So it's going to look and feel more like Fall from mid week on.  Cya in the water.

SMALL SURF.....

Fairly nice conditions but not much swell for the next few days.  Pretty much just wind swell from the Gulf through the middle of next week.   Models are hinting at a more active pattern starting around the 15th, but until then - slim pickens.  Could be some nice beach break days with the small surf.  Cya in the water.

AUTUMN TOMORROW

Autumn Equinox tomorrow.  Fall officially arrives.  Swell this week from a few sources.  New Zealand southern hemisphere most of the week.  Size will be between 1.5 and 2 ft - periods 15-17 seconds.  Most lost under the more dominant north swell and local wind swell.  Look for wind swell Monday from 8-10ft at 11 seconds.  Period and size to increase Tuesday at 9-12 ft at 12 seconds and a larger shot by Wednesday, 13-15 ft.   Most if not all of this energy will be due to ferocious north to northwest winds over the outer waters and well to our north - with winds 20-30kt and 40kt gusts.   Fire danger will elevate mostly in Mendo and Sonoma counties.  Further north, less extremes due to wetting early season rains.  Will get hot again at least until late week, then another low pressure system will drop down from the north cooling things off and increasing our chances of rain again.  Plenty of swell on tap, plenty of wind too.  Cya in the water.

SMALL SWELLS UPCOMING WEEK, CHANCE OF RAIN

Early season storm is dropping south out of BC this morning and will bring rain to most of Northwestern CA through tomorrow.  Rain may not make it all the way to the Bay Area, but points from Marin north should see some beneficial early season moisture.  Swell should stay small to mid size this week with mid period northwest swells the predominant source of energy.  Winds may be problematic shifting between south/southwest and northwest before and prior to front passage.   By mid week, rain chance will end and we will dry out.  No large swells on the horizon yet, but the storm track is getting busy and low pressure systems are moving through.   Check the winds, should be some swell around - cya in the water.

RUN OF SMALL SWELLS THIS WEEK.....

Couple of swells in the water this AM.  Swell from former Hurricane Jeanette is 3ft at 11 sec.   Forerunners of a couple New Zealand swells are showing - 2-3 at 18-20 seconds.  Small wind swell 3 at 9 sec.  The NZ swells will fill in today and tomorrow and hang around a good part of the coming week - joined by another NZ swell mid week to reinforce.  Should also see a shot of northwest wind swell around mid week - 5ft at 9-10 seconds.  The NZ swells are all approaching from around 210 degrees plus.  North swell will be from 310.   Northwest winds look likely for most of the upcoming week - but early morning sessions might have some moments at the right spots.   Basically small scale surf all week, but something to ride.   Cya in the water.

SEPTEMBER

Welcome to the 2019/2020 season.  Made it through another summer.   Couple swells in the water this AM.   Small southwest swell with periods 15-17 secs, around 2-3 ft.  There is also a small west/northwest swell from 300 degrees in the water - about 2ft.  Small wind swell at 2-3ft.   SW is certainly the dominant swell in the area.   Looking ahead to mid week, have our first northwest swell of September on the horizon for mid week.  Forerunners Tuesday night at 2ft at 20 seconds.   Filling in Wednesday at 3-5ft at 19 seconds.  Period should start to drop Thursday into Friday and fade out.   Good sign however that the N Pac is already starting to wake up and come online.  Winds are light this am with fog along the coast.  May see an up tick in northwest winds over the next couple afternoons.   But strongest over the outer waters.   cya in the water.

N PAC STIRS.....

Signs of life have begun in the North Pacific.  Low pressure system is dropping south today in the Gulf and will push onshore mid week - BC and Pac Northwest.  Chance of rain very far north - Del Norte/Humboldt as well.   Enough wind is blowing over the ocean to generate some mid period northwest swell - which should roll in late Wednesday (far Nor Cal) and fill in everywhere during Thursday.   Nothing epic mind you, but given the past couple weeks anything will work.  Probably looking at swell 5-6 ft at 13 seconds on Wednesday and 6-7 at 12 seconds Thursday.  Swell dir 290-295.  Late season New Zealand south swell to fill in Thursday and Friday - probably along the lines of 2-3 ft 18-20 seconds.  Northwest winds are going to ramp up again today through end of week.  Strongest over the outer waters and far north.  The South Pacific is definitely showing signs of slowing down for the season, as Down Under moves into spring and we transition to fall.   All eyes for us then turn to the N Pac as September approaches.  Cya in the water.

AUGUST!

One month to go until September 1, which is usually the start of the better waves season around these parts.   We do have some tropical swell mixing in today at 2ft @11-12 seconds - from Hurricane Flossie and some longer period background southern hemisphere swell later in the day.  Windswell still in the water too - short period stuff.  Winds are not ideal - mix of southwest to northwest depending on location - some lighter south winds as well.  Look for the northwest wind flow to pick up as the day goes.  Should be a few places to ride.   Hang in there - relief will be along soon.  Cya in the water.  

DOG DAYS.....

Northwest winds, short period windswell.  Late July.   That's what we've got.   Could see an uptick in the windswell mid week - small background south in the water as well but it's going to get ripped to shreds coming around Pt Conception between the wind and north flow moving south.   Good week to get some work done.   Hang in, September isn't too far off.....cya in the water.

NEXT NZ SWELL IN THE CUE, SMALL NW

Current NZ southwest swell fading today, but still decent at 3ft 15-16 sec from 190.  Look for the last in the series starting late Saturday into Sunday/Monday - initially long periods in the 22 sec band late Saturday, then 2-3 ft at 20-21 sec on Sunday.  Size/period fades Monday.  We also have a mid period, off season northwest swell/wind swell running in today and tomorrow - should peak at 4-5ft at 9-10 seconds.   This is from a Gulf Low that has been circulating in the North East Pac for the past week and has finally faded to be replaced by high pressure.  North winds will increase today and into most of next week as the summertime thermal low sets up shop again over the California Central Valley and the gradient pressure difference between the two drives the wind.  Cya in the water.

NEXT NZ SWELL INBOUND, HURRICANE SWELL FADES

Swell from Hurricane Barbara topping out today - 2-3 ft at 12-13 seconds from 180.   Secondary NZ swell is in the water as well - 3ft at 15-16 seconds from 200-210.  Bigger NZ swell is en route for late tomorrow and will come in 2ft at 20-21 seconds from 210.    This swell will peak Monday and Tuesday with size about the same - 2-3ft at 18-19 seconds.  Not much relief in the northwest winds, especially north of Jenner until the start of next week as high pressure moves more over CA and reduces the pressure gradient.   Until then, pretty strong northwest winds expected, perhaps a touch lighter near the Bay Area.   Plenty to ride for sure, just need to find some shelter from the winds. Cya in the water.

TRACKING NEW ZEALAND SWELL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK

Good size storm system near New Zealand last week has created a swell that is moving north and should arrive around our area early next week.  Long period forerunners on Monday - 1-2ft at 20-21 sec from 214.  Decent bit of west in this swell given it's origins.  Swell will build further on Tuesday to 2-2.5ft at 18-19 sec.   Being a slow fade into next Thursday beyond that.   Not much relief in winds for the week ahead - will remain steady from the northwest as is typical for this time of year.  Only upside will be ongoing wind swell to give us something to ride.   Water temps not that bad 53-55 north to south, although pockets of 49 deg water exist near shore once you get north of Jenner.  That's about all we have for the moment - after this NZ swell it's going quiet again Down Under.   Tropical storm Alvin in the East Pac is first named storm of the season but not a swell producer for us.   Cya in the water.  

JUNE!

Fog at the coast, warm inland.  June.  Look for more fog than usual (if that's even possible in Nor Cal) this summer due in part to the very cold ocean temps.   Ideal for fog creation as northwest winds blow over the open ocean.   Today, winds have reversed to a south to southeast flow.   Swell is a mix - fading south, windswell and later incoming Central Pacific South swell.   Fading swell is around 1.5 to 1.9 at 14 seconds, windswell 4-6 at 9-10 seconds.   The Central Pac swell should come in later around 2ft at 17.  This swell will be our primary swell for the next few days, sticking around through Thursday as a reinforcing shot comes through Tuesday.  Swell direction will be focused about 190-197 degrees.   Winds look to stay strong northwest over the outer waters through the extended period, but near shore with the fog and local eddy's could see lighter winds from the south.   Highly variable so check the wind links on this page before you venture out.   Water temps are cold - 48 north of Bodega,  around 53 SF.   Cya in the water.  

LARGE WEST SWELL INBOUND....UNSETTLED LATE MAY CONDITIONS....

If you've been keeping track, we've actually had measurable rain now in CA for almost seven months.  Pretty crazy.   Large surf and a lot of wind is on tap for the rest of the week as swell trains roll in from  low pressure anchored in the Gulf of AK, rotating spokes of energy at CA every few days.   Look for deepwater swell Wednesday 15-16ft at 12 seconds, gradually fading through the weekend but hovering around 8-10ft with howling northwest winds through the period.  That will tumble water temps again!   In short, plenty to ride if you know where to look and can get out of the wind.  Cya in the water.

STRONG SW SWELL PEAKING TODAY.....

Deepwater swell is 3.5 at 15 from 195 - quite solid this AM.   Current swell is peaking today and will have a gradual fade into the back half of the week.   Meanwhile, a new northwest swell and another round of southwest swells will move in.   The northwest will come in for Wed/Thurs and the long period forerunners of our next southwest swell will start to show late week, into Saturday, then getting pretty solid for Sunday/Monday.   Good run of waves for sure and the southwest swell should stick around until mid month.  Winds look light today, variable depending on location from southwest winds to north winds.  Stronger north winds tomorrow as high pressure builds in, but then fading wind speeds into the weekend.   The wind pattern is very hard to nail down at present due in part to the deep marine layer and various disturbances passing to our north and east.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - COUPLE SOUTH SWELLS

Southern Hemi swells hitting this week.  Today you'll find deep water swell around 2ft at 14-15 secs from 190.   Stronger south swell is forecast for this coming weekend - building Sunday at 2ft @18 sec, peaking Monday/Tuesday with deep water swell 3ft at 14-15 seconds.   Swell direction around 187deg.   Winds are a bit lighter than they've been, but will remain from the northwest given the time of year.   Something to ride at least at the south facing spots.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - LATE APRIL & BEYOND....

Spring time northwest winds for the foreseeable future.   Very cold water temps with all the upwelling.   Upper 40s north of Jenner.  Mid period northwest swell will continue through the week staying between 5-8ft with periods 11-13 seconds.   Bigger the further north you go.   High pressure is assuming it's place in the northeast Pacific, typical of the season.   I'll keep an eye on the southern hemisphere and update as those swells start working north.   Same goes for anything unusual from the north.   But expect reports to be a bit more infrequent until later in the summer.   Enjoy your Spring and Summer - let's all pray for a good south swell season.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - APRIL 6

Very large northwest swell was showing at outer buoys last night - 20plus feet at 17 sec at Papa Buoy.    Swell will roll in late day/tonight and peak tomorrow.   Look for deepwater 12-15ft Bay Area, 14-20ft further north.   Look for south to southwest winds through Monday night.   Strong northwest winds next Tuesday/Wednesday with fairly large surf continuing.   In short, it's Spring, but doesn't really look and feel like it other than those northwest winds creeping into the picture next week.   Unsettled pattern to continue through most of next week.   Waves around for sure if you know where to look!  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 3-24/STORMY PATTERN CONTINUES.....

Solid West swell still showing today 10ft @ 15 seconds from 290.   Look for swell to slowly wind down into Monday but remain good size.  South to southeast winds are blowing light right now but will strengthen overnight as the next storm system takes aim at Nor Cal.   Look for rain and south winds Monday, surf remaining 8-10ft @14.   Southeast winds on Tuesday as swell drops to 7-8ft.   Next storm system rolls in Tuesday night with rain likely.   Rain showers Wednesday and southwest winds.   Light northwest winds showing for Thursday with swell 7-9ft.   Plenty of size, lots of wind from different directions but there will be places that are rideable.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 3-16

Light winds will continue until Tuesday, especially for morning sessions along the Coast.  Look for mid period west/northwest swell to stay around 5-7 ft - 12-14 seconds through the period.  High pressure will break down Tuesday giving way to a series of storms that will move through the region through next weekend.   Nothing that strong, light rain, but winds will ramp up from the south/southeast Tuesday and then then shift back to the northwest on Wednesday.   All in all, not a bad run of conditions for Mid March.   Cya in the water.

MARCH

March 1 - the end of the "good" wave season.   However, pretty clean today with northeast winds and long period swell 5-8ft at 17 seconds from 305.   Winds should be good through tomorrow morning and then shift southeast as the next storm comes ashore later tomorrow morning bringing rain to the Bay Area.   Swell will start to fade Saturday night and looks to remain on the smallish side through next Tuesday with periods of rain on and off through that time frame.   Winds will vary, light west to to northwest in between storms and ramp up from the southeast as fronts push ashore.  N Pac staying pretty active into March so one would expect better than average swell production from the region.   Stay tuned and cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - 2-24

Another series of storms is taking aim on Northern and Central CA - with rain and wind forecast on and off for the next week.   Surprisingly, fairly small surf expected, even with all the storminess.   Part of the reason for this is that the systems are very warm and moist and lacking a really strong or defined low pressure system driving winds in the open ocean.  As a result, looking for west to northwest swell through Thursday at around 4-7 ft, with mid periods - 10-13 seconds.  Winds will be strong south tonight through Monday night - potentially turn northeast on Tuesday and then back to strong south to southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday.   Lighter northwest winds forecast Thursday.   So this type of set up might favor the beach breaks overall.   Keep an eye on it - check the winds.  Get what you can because Spring is lurking.  I've got a feeling we're going to be in for a very windy,  cold March-May once the pattern starts to shift and high pressure begins to establish itself in the N Pac.   Cya in the water.  

PAPA BUOY - 29FT AT 16SEC

Another giant swell hitting the outer buoys.  Unfortunately - just too much weather, wind and general storminess to contend with for a few more days.   Episodes of rain/showers off and on and no real decent conditions.  Might find a few places to ride if you have time to scout around - otherwise - might see some calmer conditions going into next week for a few days as high pressure tries to gain control.   Until then, get what you can.   Cya in the water.

BIG STORMY

A very strong low pressure system is just offshore Pt Arena this am, bringing winds, rain to CA.   Swell is around 12 ft @11 - with strong southeast winds.   Look for rain turning to showers all day long with strong winds.   Winds will turn southwest and then west through Monday with another swell rolling through at 8-10 at 14 seconds.   Much bigger west swell for middle of next week when deep water swell jumps to 12-15 ft on Tuesday.   Winds will northwest turning north by that time.  Very cold temps to come in Sunday into Monday as another system drops down out of BC.   Plenty of swell, just need to pick your spots.   Cya in the water.

HIGH PRESSURE - MID SIZE WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELLS

High pressure in control until at least early February.   Next week or so will feature north/northeast/northwest winds at times, possibly clean AM sessions and series of west to northwest swells moving through our waters.   One of those is peaking today at 8-9ft at 14 seconds.  Afterwards, look for the swell to remain in the 5-7ft range with periods of 14-15 seconds through at least Monday.   Overall, nice break from all the rain and rogue conditions, enjoy it because when the Active Phase of the MJO heats up again in early February we'll probably see a run of stormy weather.  Cya in the water.

WHOA - CA BUOY - 33ft@17sec!

XXL large inbound swell train 350 miles out at CA Buoy.   Biggest reading this am was at 33ft!.   Swell will arrive later and continue through tomorrow.   Don't really see things cleaning up until maybe Sunday when winds turn more northwest and high pressure starts to build into the region giving us dry weather all of next week.   Until then - more rain today on and off (not as much wind) and then looks rainy off and on through the weekend.   Might be some knooks and crannies working if you know where to look.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - Plenty of swell and southeast winds

Happy New Year.   Stormy pattern setting back up for the foreseeable future.  We will have on and off rain events through at least the middle of next week and likely beyond.   Plenty of swell trains with mostly west swells through the period, biggest looks like Saturday and then again on Monday.   Winds are going to stay pretty consistent from the south/southeast/east depending on frontal passage - so some spots will remain clean, others not so much.   Plenty of options.   One note - Pt Arena buoy appears to have stopped transmitting overnight - not sure if this is temporary or it's come off its mooring.   Will monitor.   Cya in the water.

PLENTY OF SWELL ON TAP, CLEAN CONDITIONS

Old west/northwest swell fading out this am at 7ft 11 seconds, new swell loading up at far northern buoys - 9-10 ft at 20 seconds.   That swell will fill in all day and be solid by tomorrow morning.   Winds are offshore pretty much up and down the coast as high pressure rules the day.  No rain in sight through most of next week until the pattern breaks down potentially next weekend.  Until then, look for clean conditions especially for AM sessions with swell gradually fading by around next Wednesday.   Beach breaks should be pretty fun from Monday to Wednesday.   Cya in the water.

ANOTHER BIG WEST SWELL LOADING UP....

Hope you enjoyed the Winter Solstice.  Break between big swells today - deep water around 7.5-8 ft at 12 seconds from 300 plus.  Break will be short-lived as the Papa Buoy is already showing deep water swell at 19ft 14-15 seconds.   That will arrive tonight and be in full force tomorrow, along with a new round of rain showers lasting through Christmas.   On and off rain, wind, lots of swell.   There will be moments if you pick your windows wisely.  Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and cya in the water.  

WHOA! BIGGEST SWELL OF THE YEAR INBOUND THIS WEEKEND

As if it's not been big enough the past two weeks.....Large storm system with a dynamic fetch (means the winds are moving at a high speed in the same direction of an already created swell) all pushing east towards the West Coast - creating a huge swell event for Sunday night and Monday.   Satellite pass yesterday revealed seas in excess of 51ft and the storm was only 1500 miles from the Coast.  NOAA is predicting long period swell of 18-20ft (Bay Area), 20-23 ft (North Coast) with extremely long periods of 19-21 seconds.  Deepwater breaks like Mavericks and others will be in excess of 50ft on Monday.   We still have large swell until then, staying mostly above 10ft until Sunday night.   Storm door is open as well, quick moving storm today and tonight - break Saturday and then another quick moving system Sunday.  Winds don't look great - going to stay mostly south to southwest through Sunday night.   Might see light northwest winds for Monday (Bay Area), but winds on the far North Coast should remain west to southwest.  Monday should certainly be one to go and witness.  Be cautious and alert if you're near the beaches.   Cya in the water.

WEEKEND FORECAST

Long period swell continuing this morning at 8-9ft at 18 seconds from 300.   Still quite solid, but down a few notches from yesterday.  Picture is from the North Sonoma Coast as lines marched in.
Swell will continue to fade into tomorrow, but still be 6-8 at 15 seconds.   One more day of high pressure and then two new storm systems arriving affecting our weather until Monday.   The first one this evening will mainly affect the region north of Cape Mendo.   The second, Saturday night into Sunday should bring rains region wide - with lesser amounts south of Sonoma.  Winds will stay east to southeast today and southeast tomorrow.   South winds ramp up Saturday night through Sunday.   Swell will crank back up Sunday night through Monday - back in the 10-12 ft range (deepwater).  So no shortage of swell for the foreseeable future - just keep an eye on the winds.   Cya in the water.

BIG AND STORMY

Pt Arena Buoy is 16ft at 14 seconds this am.  Whoa.   Next in a series of storm systems knocking on the door which will bring rain, high winds and large surf.  Another large west swell lines up for later this week.   Storm door is open, south wind door is open, swell door is open.  Perhaps a good time to travel south to the safety of So Cal or Baja.   Cya in the water.  

THANKSGIVING WEEK FORECAST - ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN

This AM features offshore winds, cool temps and lingering northwest swell - 4-5 ft at 12-13 seconds. Today and part of tomorrow should be the last of the smoke filled days as our weather pattern finally shifts into something that looks like late autumn.   A series of Pacific weather systems will impact CA starting late Tuesday and lasting through at least Friday, perhaps longer for our northern areas through the weekend.   Southeast winds will be on the rise tomorrow and get stronger through about Wednesday night - transitioning over to southwest winds Thanksgiving Day and Friday.   Small west swell will continue and then build Wednesday with long period forerunners at 3-4 ft @18 seconds.  Thursday, west swell will be 8-11ft and 10-12ft on Friday (deep water heights).   Heaviest rain looks to be Wednesday (with mountain snow) - and then again late Thanksgiving Day into Friday.   Plenty of swell on tap - winds just look a bit dicey.   However, if you know your spots you might find some moments.   Happy Thanksgiving, cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - SOLID SWELL FOR MID/LATE WEEK

East winds continue to transport heavy smoke from the Camp fire in Paradise to the Bay Area and points north.   Small surf today, 2-3 ft - mix of southwest and northwest swells.   Look for swell to ramp up late Wednesday - probably overnight - and be quite solid for Thursday/Friday - with stand out winter breaks back in the double to triple overhead range.  Light winds should continue Wednesday, increase from the northwest on Thursday and then back off again Friday/Saturday.   This incoming swell will gradually fade through the weekend.   AM sessions should be pretty clean through the period - just check the winds later in the week.   For those looking for any sign of rain - long term models aren't really showing anything until Thanksgiving or beyond.   The good news is the blocking ridge of high pressure, which has been situated offshore for almost a month is forecast to move out and low pressure will take it's place.   How long and how much rain we will get - too early to know.   Models should have a better handle on that by early next week.   Until then, should be plenty of surf on tap.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - Good week for work

Not much to talk about this week.  High pressure is locked offshore around 135W.  Almost stationary and shunting storms to our north.   Strong northwest winds and junky short period windswell through the week.   No rain in sight which is not a good thing with November upon us.  Pattern might start to break down middle of the month - but nothing solid on the charts right now for swell or weather.  Cya in the water.

WEEKEND FORECAST & BEYOND - 10-26

Sorry for the break in reports - been surfing a ton and taking advantage of all the swell and good conditions this past month.   We have a pretty decent shot of northwest swell in the water today - deepwater is 8-9 ft at 13 seconds from around 300.   Local beaches are pretty walled, with fog and light winds.   Over the outer waters,  winds are strong from the northwest and pretty ugly.   High pressure is building in today and tomorrow before giving way to a weak system that will move in on Sunday but keep all rain towards the Oregon border.   Winds will probably shift south to southwest ahead of the front and then north to northwest behind it.   Look for the northwest swell to gradually fade but stick around through Sunday, then another northwest swell train will come in with deep water heights projected to be 6-10ft at 15 seconds.  Peaking Monday at 10-11ft.   That swell should stick around well into middle of next week.   Winds aren't looking ideal, however given the time of year we might see some offshore flow for the AM's only - but expect winds to pick up through the day as high pressure will be about and influencing our local wind and weather.   There will continue to be a fair amount of background southwest swell in the 2-3ft range - so it's not over down under yet.   Much of that will get lost in the northwest swell.   Plenty to ride, some spots should be decent.   Cya in the water.

SOLID SOUTHWEST, MORE SWELL ON THE WAY...

SW swell is 3.1 @18 this AM from 210.  Looking for this swell to hang around through Tuesday with light winds.  By midweek, models are growing more confident we will see a very solid west/northwest swell from around 280-300 deg.  Could be good for overhead to double overhead waves at top spots from Wed to Fri.   Winds could be favoring offshore AM sessions by this time as well.   Another solid southwest swell is forecast for around Oct 22-25.   All in all, pretty solid month of surf, as it should be in October.   Cya in the water.

SWELL FROM EVERYWHERE - WEEKEND FORECAST

Our first pulse of northwest swell is winding down this am - swell is 4-6ft at 12-13 seconds from 295.   Also have a small southwest swell in the water - 2-3 at 14 from 205.   We have swell inbound from N and S this weekend.   South swell from Hurricane Sergio and another Gulf Swell set to roll in Saturday.   Sergio swell should show Saturday at select breaks.  Models are forecasting deepwater heights of 3-5ft at 19sec for Saturday night.   This might be a bit overdone, but we will wait and see as the swell starts rolling up the Coast.   Swell will stay solid on Sunday, 3-4 at 18 seconds.  In fact, expect the Sergio swell to stick around until around next Tuesday.   As for the N Pac swell(s) - we're going to have a lot of wind starting Saturday and that will really ramp up the wind swell (and drop water temps again).   Peak of that event should be Saturday night into Sunday 8-11ft (offshore waters), smaller nearshore.   In addition we will have a longer period west/northwest swell from the remnants of Typhoon Trami which went extratropical this past week and will send in a longer period swell at 3-5ft at 19 deepwater 300-305 on Saturday.   Sunday period will be down to 18 seconds and 16 seconds on Monday.   Winds will be the issue over the weekend and into next week as an inside slider is dropping down the State over the weekend which will ramp up the north to northwest winds strongly starting Saturday night.   We could see some offshore winds by next week at certain spots along the Coast, so keep an eye on it.   However, with all the swell sources this weekend and beyond, there should be plenty of spots holding waves and rideable.  Cya in the water.  Yay Fall!