Updated Forecast

Well, couple nice days and things have gone back into the toilet as we go through the weekend.  Very strong south/southeast winds started ramping up late afternoon and will continue thru Sunday as an area of low pressure moves through the state from east to west (very unusual) while at the same time another low pressure system moves towards us from the open ocean.  These two systems will combine sometime around late Sunday into Monday and bring a very slight chance of rain to the region.  Biggest story will be the winds.  Small mix of southwest windswell and northwest windswell looks to be the rule for the next few days, getting much smaller from Wednesday on.  So not looking like a great week ahead for stellar surf days.  Get what you can.  Cya in the water.

GO SURF

Offshore winds, warm temps, head high south swell sets.  Go surf.  It's May 2 and we don't get days like this around here in May.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

NW windswell on the rise tonight as high pressure to our east and north has increased the wind flow over the outer waters.  Should see surf in the 3-5 ft range on Monday - with short periods - 8-9 seconds.     By Tuesday, windswell should crank up a bit more to 4-6ft deep water with periods 10-11 seconds.  Fading Wednesday and thru the end of the week.  A southwest swell will begin to fill in Wednesday and stick around thru the end of the week as well.  Nothing huge, probably deepwater in the 3 ft range. Warm temps the next week inland and there may be a few days where the warmth makes it all the way to the coast.  Winds are worth checking for the AM sessions.  I expect most afternoons will see increased northwest/onshore flow.  Cya in the water.

Week Ahead...

Small windswell and background south swell in the water this morning.  3-5 ft at 8-9 sec - and 1.5 ft at 14-17 sec.  Winds are light right now and will pick up later in the day from the northwest.  Forecast is calling for East winds Tuesday am, but i'm a bit suspect of that.  We'll see what happens.  Otherwise, southerly surge of fog and wind will get underway later in the week and put an end to this little heat wave.  The only upside is that it should bring water temps back up above the 50 degree mark late in the week.  Swell wise - windswell/small pulses of northwest Gulf swell through the period along with an increasing south/southwest swell from about Wednesday on.  Check the winds early, be flexible and you might find some surf.  Cya in the water.

Goodnight Orion

Orion setting in the western sky early.  We are moving into spring with windswell plentiful, but some south swell action here and there.  Small background souths up until the end of the month (steep angle too) - then we might see a decent run of south swell end of April into early May.  The N Pac has gone to sleep for the season.  Might see a few small pulses from the northwest between now and the end of April.  Winds have lightened up some, but we will still see nw wind flow through the period.  Might be a few mornings where the flow is light enough for a session - always good to check the winds and surf early this time of year.  Cya in the water.

All you need to really know is the water temp is 47 degrees

Northwest winds continue to shred the outer waters and the upwelling machine is in full effect.  Would not be surprised to see water temps fall to 46 in the next couple days.  Quite cold for around here.  Spring in Nor Cal. Front moved through last night and we have another wind event lining up for this afternoon and evening - followed by northwest winds the remainder of the week.  Windswell will be the rule, then mid week a small south swell will join in (probably 2-3 ft at 17-18 sec) - but I imagine it will be smaller than forecast in our region given the fact the swell will come up the coast pushing against nw winds the entire way.  So, protected spots the call and a warm wetsuit.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast - No Surf for You!

One look at local beach cams today tells it all - nw winds and victory at sea.  At the height of the wind event late Sunday into Monday - water temps tumbled 4 degrees in about five hours.  Winds will blow most of the day and probably start to let up overnight.  But the damage is done with large, choppy windswell in the water and minor southwest swell.  The rest of the week looks trashed - nw winds the entire time - best bet would be spots protected from the winds.  Spring has arrived in Nor Cal.  Cya in the water.

Larger WNW Groundswell for the Weekend

Another beneficial storm is moving out of the region tonight.  We will see an increase in surf from the wnw starting late tomorrow - as long period forerunners will come in - 3-5ft at 20 seconds - with good size sets probably by sunset.  Saturday and Sunday will feature 8-10 ft deepwater - good for double overhead sets at north facing breaks.  Ditto on Monday.  Problem is going to be the winds - forecast to be light onshore most of the time - not ideal - but probably best to check winds early to see if you can catch a window. High pressure is going to set up, however storm systems may brush the very far north bay during the weekend.  Plenty of surf on tap - just going to take some hunting.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Long period northwest swell filling in - deepwater 3-5 at 17 seconds.  There is also a short period southwest swell at 4-6 at 8-10 seconds - this is from the storm system moving through our region  tonight.  Look for fairly light morning winds through mid week - from south to northwest, highly variable - so worth a check for the AM sessions to see what the wind is doing.  Dry Tues/Wed - then another small storm comes in Wed night into Thursday.  More rain forecast next Sunday/Monday too.  Then it looks like spring time high pressure may take control.  Should be surf on tap most of the week - nothing large - just small to mid size pulses from the north and south.  Biggest challenge will be the winds.  All n' all - could be a lot worse for the first week in April.  Cya in the water.

Mix of Northwest and Southwest swells

Nice mix of north swell tonight at 5-7 ft at 17 seconds and southwest 2ft at 14-17 seconds.  Winds remain the issue blowing from the west.  Doesn't really look to clean up until maybe Friday when we could see some light offshore flow for the morning only.  Very weak storm systems are just brushing the region, but not bringing any rain.  By the weekend, a cut off low will drop down from the Gulf of Alaska and bring us a better shot at some rain, actually starting around Friday.  Winds are going to be highly variable over the next 3-5 days - so give it a check now and then and if you have a window you might get lucky.  Plenty of surf to ride (for the time of year).  Saturday looks the smallest day coming up - with a new pulse of northwest swell due in Sunday late.  Check the winds - cya in the water.

Welcome to Spring

NW winds are gusting to 23kt over outer waters, water temp is 49 and falling.  Very short period windswell is in the water at 6-9 ft at 6-8 seconds from 255 plus.  It's actually a combination of west windswell from yesterday's storm and north windswell from the strong winds.  A larger west swell will move in later today - buoys north are showing 10 ft at 12 seconds - so that may give us something to ride later at breaks protected from the winds.  Winds will increase further overnight and be strong on Friday.  West swell will continue Friday and then fade over the weekend - leaving us with small surf and generally junk conditions at anything facing west or north.  You might find something to ride at protected spots, but they will be on the small side.  Dark days my friends.   Desperation surfs become the norm, a good attitude can make 5 second windswell look fun and it's time to reconnect with friends,  family and your boss and get back to work.  Hang in there, Fall is only six months away.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Sorry for the late update - was in Texas the past few days (no surf in Texas to speak of).  Around here, northwest winds are blowing hard tonight and we have short period windswell making a mess of things.  Storm system to our west will arrive Tuesday night and linger until Thursday bringing much needed rain to the region.  Winds will be northwest/west Monday and Tuesday, turing south Tuesday night into Wednesday, back to northwest for the remainder of the week.  Small west swell with background southwest swell most of the week - then swell will increase from the west Thursday/Friday as the inbound storm will whip up shorter period swell for the region.  Probably good for head high and bigger at west/northwest facing breaks on Thursday and Friday.  All n' all, a good week to probably get some work done, however if you know where to look and how spots respond to different wind directions you might find something to ride.  Glad to be back in Cali - cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Small west swell most of this week - probably waist to head high (touch bigger at times) - and the most size at north/northwest facing breaks.  Warm temps inland the next two days, but fog remains at the coast as light onshore flow is pretty persistent, even with high pressure overhead.  Winds have been light onshore and should remain that way into Wednesday, but then pick up towards the end of the week as high pressure moves off and low pressure well to our north increases the onshore push of fog and low clouds.  It looks like winter is over for us, models hinting at perhaps a chance of rain again middle of next week - but i think that's wishful model thinking.  The pattern we've been in since January is pretty rock solid and once the normal springtime high pressure sets up in the Gulf of Alaska it's game over for the storm track.  So, surf early, keep an eye on the winds and you might get something to ride.  Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

NW winds are howling behind frontal passage this morning.  Storm has passed, long period nw swell is filling in at 5-7 ft at 18-20 seconds.  Look for this swell to peak on Saturday, size drops Sunday.  Winds will be an issue the next 36 hours or so, then we "might" see lighter AM winds for Sunday.  Beyond, high pressure builds in, temps warm inland, nw winds over water and it's looking a lot like Spring.  Find protection from the winds, surf early.  Cya in the water.

MARCH

March 1 is historically the official end of the winter wave season for Central/Northern CA.  Almost on cue, the northwest wind machine just picks up and blows, like she's doing now.  We have plenty of swell in the water and that should continue through the week - so it's not all bad.  Find wind protected spots and you'll find something to ride.  Rain comes in Tuesday night, lasting through Thursday - then high pressure builds in again towards next weekend.  Overhead surf pretty much all week at north facing breaks, smaller south facing.  Cya in the water.

Storm track stays active as we head towards March....

Deepwater around 6-8 ft this morning at 14 seconds from 295.  Look for solid surf to continue for the next five days, dropping a tad Friday (but still overhead) and jumping back up Saturday/Sunday.  Worth checking the winds for morning sessions, but as we're moving towards March, unlikely you will find cleaner PM conditions unless you hit a break protected from the winds.  Very small chance of rain Saturday late, as a weak system brushes to our north.  A better chance of precip by next Wednesday as a stronger system comes ashore.  NW winds will be the rule between systems at this point.  Plenty of swell, check the winds, know your spots and you'll find a place to ride.  cya in the water.

Large NW swell incoming, Spring lurks......

Large swell train forecast to impact the region late Saturday night through Sunday - with deepwater swell forecast 15-19 ft with long periods & steep angle 300-330 (biggest north).  Northwest winds appear to be setting up as the calendar moves closer to March, however worth checking each morning as the winds nearshore could remain on the light side.  Water temps are dropping with the winds, 49 and falling.  Spring time high pressure ruling the Pacific diverting the storm track up into BC and down into the Great Basin.  NO rain forecast through early March and my guess is we will see very little rain for the remainder of the winter as this highly unusual blocking winter high will only get stronger when we get into March and April.  Storms are still active in the North Pac - just tracking very high latitude, so we're seeing much steeper angle swells - which is very typical as the seasons change.   Plenty of surf on tap the next five days.  If you know where to look you'll find something to ride.  Cya in the water.

Week Ahead - NW winds and good size swell

Cold low pressure system is through our area and impacting So Cal tonight.  Behind the front, strong nw winds are blowing over the outer waters.  Look for unsettled weather all week (not a ton of rain) just a lot of nw wind and good size surf right through next sunday.  Deepwater swell heights will hover between 6-12ft the entire week as multiple swell events overlap.  Just need to find protection from the nw wind machine and you'll score.  Cya in water.

Weekend Forecast

One more nice morning in store before winds turn onshore and winter returns next week.  WNW swell winding down and another new swell will start to fill in late day Saturday.  Swell is 5-6ft at 14 from 290 + at the moment.  Look for larger surf Saturday late into Sunday.  Sets a few feet overhead to double overhead (at top north facing spots) by Sunday.  Winds will be east Saturday AM - probably start to turn west Saturday PM.  Sunday for sure looks like west/northwest winds.  Rain comes back late Monday night through Tuesday.  Looks like we might have more weather late next week.  We need the rain and snow at this point - painfully dry since January 1.  Cya in the water.

Week Ahead

High pressure is set up for the extended period.  However, storm activity continues out in the north and west Pacific, so we'll have swell the entire week with lighter winds forecast, especially for AM sessions.  Expect offshore winds for the mornings and some onshore flow for afternoons.  Right now next "chance" of any rain is out beyond Feb 22.  Just how dry has it been since we started 2013?  Most cities in Nor Cal have reported less than one inch of rain through Feb 10th - breaking the record books in most cases for the driest period ever.   Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast...Early Spring?

Solid long period swell will fill in Saturday PM - expect surf heights back in the 8-12 ft range from 285 to 300.  Buoys are 9ft at 14 from 310 this morning.  North winds are going to be blowing behind the passing front that brought us meager amounts of rain yesterday and this morning.  High pressure will once again regain control and stay that way for the next 7-10 days, if not longer.  Storm systems are moving higher in the Gulf of Alaska, hence swells are coming in from a steeper angle.  This is indicative of a transition to more of a spring pattern.  Let's hope winter will still have something to say about that.  North to northwest winds look like the rule, plenty of swell, but you'll need to find some protection to ride.  Water temps hovering around 50, will likely drop below that over the next two days as winds blow on the outer waters.  Especially from the Bay Area north.  Cya in the water.

Week Ahead

WNW swell winding down today, but still solid at 8ft 13 seconds.  Winds are light northwest.  Look for moderate NW winds most of the week with larger northwest swell pushing in here from Wednesday to Friday.  Heights will go back up in the 8-12ft deepwater range then.  Light rain, cooler temps Thursday into Friday - then high pressure re builds for the weekend and beyond.  Plenty of surf, find protection from the winds this week.  Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Ideal conditions for the the next few mornings with offshore flow.  New, long period northwest swell will begin to fill in late Friday night and Saturday morning - getting quite solid Saturday afternoon with double overhead sets by sundown.  Swell is 280-300.  Sunday will be bigger - 10-15ft deepwater, same direction.  Good AM winds.  Surf should stay good size into the first of next week.  Additionally, no rain forecast right now through next Wednesday, but we might finally see a bit of rain next Thursday.  Side note - January was the 3rd driest month on record in SF - .49 inches of rain - going back since they started keeping records in the 1860s.  Doesn't bode well for the State if this trend continues and it certainly keeps our good winter sand bars from perking up at the spots that like a wet winter.  Odd season weather wise for sure.  Plenty to ride, check the AM winds.  Cya in the water.

Week Ahead

Sat photo tells the story of the week ahead.  High pressure in full control pushing the storm track (longwave) pattern up into BC and down into the Central US.  This is actually a good set up for surfing, but lousy for rain and snow production in CA - which is what we've basically had for the past 2.5 weeks.  Storms out in the far West Pac will send swell for later in the week and basically keep things in the mid size range.  NW winds hacking it today, but the winds should turn more favorable later this week, perhaps starting Wednesday morning.  Beyond, the pattern may shift as we move more into February with the stormtrack moving closer to CA and perhaps brining us some needed rain.  For now, the next 10 days look dry.  Check the winds each morning.  Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Another round of long period swell is on the way for Saturday and Sunday.  Northern buoys are already showing 7-8 ft at 20 seconds.  Swell should fill in overnight and be solid by the afternoon - deepwater likely 7-10ft periods 15-18 seconds.  Another weather system may brush the northern half of the state, but rainfall looks light, if anything even falls south of the GG.  Winds have increased from the north/northwest behind the front.  High pressure builds in and it looks like we're going to stay high and dry for an extended period again.  This should bring a return to AM offshore winds next week.  Plenty of swell on tap, check the winds each morning.  Even though we have north/northwest winds forecast, it might be offshore for the morning sessions Sat/Sun, but looking unlikely.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

East winds still blowing this AM with solid swell hanging around at 6ft 17 sec from 280+.  Winds will change to southwest later today as rain returns to the region tonight and Wednesday, especially for the North Bay.  Unsettled weather will return for the weekend, so winds are going to be variable for the next few days.  Surf will increase some more on Wednesday, and then crank back up Thursday, Friday - back into the 8-10ft deepwater range.  Plenty of surf for the next five days, just check the winds.  Cya in the water.

Blind at the outer buoys....

Papa Buoy has gone off, still reporting but floating adrift somewhere in the North Pacific.  CA Buoy still out - we've got no window to incoming swell trains until they hit our far northern coast.  Certainly were a few forerunner sets in the water this am - and look for that to increase later today.  Surf should be quite solid by Saturday - but long lulls.  Sunday will be quite large, again, long lulls.  Perfect conditions all weekend long.  Go surf.  Cya in the water.

Large swell to impact coast this weekend

Probably everyone knows we have a very large swell inbound for the weekend.  Should see super long period forerunners late Friday night into Saturday  - we're talking energy 5-6ft deepwater in the 25-27 sec band - quite high and unusual.  That type of energy will really jump when it shoals on Bay Area beaches.  Saturday, size will continue up all day - afternoon 8-10 ft deepwater - 18-20 seconds - maxing Sunday at 15-20 ft, long periods and long lulls, since the swell source was very far away.  Conditions should be close to perfect with light to variable/offshore winds as high pressure camps out over the Western US. Good conditions will continue into the early part of next week.  Cya in the water.

Week Ahead

Nice week ahead.  Mornings should feature light to offshore winds almost all week with surf on the small side pretty much through the period.  Very cold temps the next two mornings, then things should start to moderate mid week.  Rain stays out of the forecast through the next seven days.  Models are hinting at perhaps a major shift in the weather pattern beyond that, as an active storm pattern looks to set up with possible subtropical systems moving in from the Pacific.  More on that next weekend.  Until then, enjoy the small clean surf.  Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

North winds the rule this weekend, lighter winds perhaps on Sunday and into next week.  Steep angled northwest mid period swell - 8-10 ft at 11-13 seconds will start to fade out late Saturday, smaller surf on Sunday.  Might find some place protected.  Cold air temps overnight and am - water temp is now 52 degrees after all the wind offshore.  Not a great weekend for surf, but if you look for it you might get lucky some place.  cya in the water.

Updated Forecast, Cold Days Ahead

West/northwest mid period swell continues this morning at 7-9 ft at 11-12 seconds from 310.  Winds are east nearshore, northwest at the offshore buoys.  Water temps have been dropping for a few days now, hovering around 53.  Those temps will likely drop a few more degrees as a very cold airmass from Alaska drops into Northern California starting tomorrow night.  Slight chance of rain, snow down to 1500ft and northwest winds will be the rule through the weekend.  We will continue to see moderate size waves from the northwest through the week - biggest Thursday and Friday when heights jump back up in the 6-10ft deepwater range.  Smaller surf for Saturday and Sunday.  Very large tides again the next few mornings so be aware of that if you're hitting it early.  Find protection from the winds and you'll find waves.  Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Moderate size northwest continues today with deepwater swell in the 8-10 ft range at 12 seconds.  Swell will fade some tomorrow (4-8 ft deepwater) and then jump back up again on Sunday (10-13ft deepwater).  Last day of offshore flow, then a weather system comes ashore Saturday (late) with rain well into Sunday.  Winds should change to south/southeast at some point Saturday.  Maybe late enough to allow a morning go out.  Sunday winds will switch behind the front, w/nw.  High pressure looks to quickly rebuild for next week, so we might see renewed offshore flow with decent size swell continuing from the North Pacific.  It's been a great run of surf, that wont change.  Just keep an eye on the winds as they're going to be variable over the next 36-48 hours.  Cya in the water.

Next Swell showing nicely

Long period swell 6ft 20 sec from 295 filling in tonight.  Swell will peak overnight and be quite solid at sunrise with 8-10ft long period deep water swell heights.  Winds look east/offshore in the morning at most breaks.  Look for double overhead and larger sets at north facing breaks.  That should be the rule for the next three days as overlapping northwest swells roll ashore.  Winds look ideal with light offshore flow each morning.  Happy New Year everyone.  Have a safe night.  Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast - Large Swell Tomorrow

Forerunners of next large swell hitting north - 7ft at 22 seconds.  Swell will slowly build through tonight - peaking Saturday at 10-14 seconds at 17-19 seconds.  Double, triple overhead surf expected and larger sets and prime deepwater spots.  Winds at present are blowing east, may switch to south/southeast later as a weak weather system is dropping south along the coast.  Some rain expected today and perhaps into tomorrow morning.  Then high pressure will build back in and north to northwest winds will come around behind the front.  Swell will drop Sunday, but still be solid, smaller on Monday with more east winds forecast then.  Looks like our next weather system comes in late Tuesday into Wednesday.  Plenty of size tomorrow.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

One look outside and you have probably guessed it's not a surf day.  Last in current series of storms pounding the region with heavy rain, strong south winds and a mix bag of swell.  Look for conditions to gradually improve overnight with perhaps n/nw flow by Monday for spots north of SF.  Big southwest storm swell will come up all day and fade quickly tonight.  Monday and Tuesday might feature something rideable if you know where to look.  Another storm is forecast to come ashore Tuesday and exit Wednesday.  Then high pressure may build in for the remainder of next week - but winds could be blowing northwest by that time.  Check the winds all next week - and you will find some windows.  Plenty of swell in the water and it will get much bigger by next Thursday and Friday. Happy Holidays to everyone and thanks for following.  Cya in the water.

Very Large Swell Next Weekend - Bad Weather Continues

This week is shaping up as another stormy one, as Pacific systems are lining up past the Dateline to deliver rain and winds our way through next weekend.  In fact, by next Friday (late) we could see another large rain event like the one we had earlier this month.  Good surf windows will be few and far between, however very large surf will be on order most, if not all of the week with an extra large event next Saturday and Sunday with deepwater heights forecast in the 15-20ft range.  Right now the best day of the upcoming week looks like Wednesday, with East winds forecast and surf in the 8-12ft range.  Otherwise - we will see sw/w or nw winds most of the time.  Spots along this coast do like some of these wind directions, so if you know where to look you'll find something to ride.  Cya in the water.

Active Storm Pattern, Plenty Of Swell

Cold storm has passed our area tonight.  In it's wake we will probably see the coldest readings of the Fall tomorrow morning.  Steep angled northwest swell came down with the storm (305 to 320) - in the 8-10ft range at 12-14 seconds.  KING tides the next couple days with the largest tides of the season.  We are in a very active storm pattern as the jetstream will likely guide storms our way every 36 hrs or so for the next week.  In fact, weather models put us in an above normal precip pattern through the end of December.  As they say, the devil is in the details - so just expect unsettled conditions with rain rolling through from time to time - with the next storm possible on Friday, then a strong system late Saturday into Sunday.  Plenty of swell through the period - trick is going to be finding some place to ride and keeping an eye on the winds - which will be highly variable.  You might just get some windows of opportunity.  The North Pacific wave machine will certainly be pushing out swell.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Pt Reyes Deepwater buoy is back online.  Now the SF buoy appear to be on the blink.  Small new pulse of northwest swell just hitting our northern buoys at 4-6 ft at 15 seconds.  This swell will fill in all day tomorrow with some decent size by sunset.  Upward trend continues Wednesday and Thursday with deepwater swell heights in the 6-8 ft range and possibly bigger at times by Thursday.  Storm system dropping south out of the Gulf, with bring rain by Wednesday morning.  Showers and colder weather stick around Thursday with very cold overnight lows on Thursday night into Friday morning.  Weather models flip flopping about the weekend - could see more rain or high pressure will regain control.   WNW winds will be the rule for the next few days.  Plenty of swell, find some protection from those winds and watch the big fat tides in the mornings.  Cya in the water.

Buoy's Offline

PT Reyes buoy appears to be off line and not sending data.  CA Buoy is still offline and has been for quite a while now.  No idea when that will be re deployed.  The SF Buoy also appears to be having some issues with wind readings, but swell appears to still be operational.  C'mon NOAA get it together and repaired.  Otherwise - clean today and tomorrow with morning off shores, small wind swell at 6-7 ft at 10 seconds.  Get it, because the pattern changes back to wet Tuesday night and could potentially stay unsettled through next weekend.  Cya in the water.

High Pressure Returns

High pressure building in over the East Pacific and California will shunt the storm track way north for an extended period - probably through all of next week.  In the short term, fog will become more wide spread and winds light in the mornings.  We may see a stronger offshore pattern set up early next week.  Swell wise, large windswell type event today with surf 10 ft at 11 seconds from plus 300.  Swell will drop through the weekend with shoulder to head high surf for Saturday and Sunday at most good north facing breaks.  Winds should be best towards the weekend, as we might see stronger northwest flow today and tomorrow.  Check the winds.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Next round of rain will come ashore late tonight.  This storm will be nothing like the events of the past four days.  South winds will ramp up again and last through mid day Wednesday.  Winds will veer northwest by that afternoon and stay northwest into the weekend.  Swell will hover in the 5-7ft (deepwater) range most of the week.  No big increase in size expected.  Average winter time surf around these parts.  Find spots that are protected from the northwest winds and there should be something to ride.  Cya in the water.

Forgettaboutit

Second major winter storm just offshore.  This one will crank out a northwest swell with deepwater heights 16-19ft (or larger) thru the next couple days and 6 inches of rain between now and Friday night in the North Bay.  Third and final storm will roar ashore late Saturday night into Sunday, dumping the same amount of rain, swell.  Winds are gusting from the south at 25kts and will increase all day.  Just a good ole fashioned normal winter storm cycle in Nor Cal.  Plenty of swell out there for the next five days or so - just need to find a place that likes huge waves and south winds.  Cya in the water.

Get It While You Can

We probably get one more ok day until the entire North and West Pacific unload on us starting late Tuesday and lasting thru next weekend.  Large storm surf at times all next week, very strong southeast to south winds (gale warnings will be up starting tomorrow) and heavy rains on and off.  This will be a good week to get some work done.  Very large swell rolls in next weekend - perhaps the biggest of the season to date, but finding some place to ride it will probably be impossible.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

New swell filling in tonight - 5-6 ft at 12 seconds (290+).  Should continue to grow in size tomorrow.  Winds were light offshore most of the day and the pattern looks pretty good for the next couple days with plenty of northwest swell.  Rain will return to the region by next Wednesday, perhaps continuing into next weekend.  Could see quite a large swell event by next weekend  - more on that in a few days as the storm/swell comes together.  Cya in the water.

Thanksgiving Week

Surf will stay decent size most of the week - getting bigger again on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday with better wind conditions (Thur/Fri) as high pressure builds back in.  Look for deepwater swell in the 6-8ft range until Wednesday and Thursday when it will jump back to the 10-15 ft range deepwater.  The swell later in the week will have more West in it - 270-300.   Winds look to stay south to southwest for the next two days (but worth checking certain spots as the wind forecast is highly variable due to the proximity of low pressure to our north).  Rain comes in late Tuesday into Wednesday, then high pressure should shift the storm track north for the holiday weekend with nice weather.  Right now it doesn't look like an offshore wind pattern, but perhaps very light north to northwest.  So plenty of swell all week, tricky conditions with the wind.  Know your spots and you'll certainly score.  Happy Thanksgiving to all.  Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast - Swell and Storms

Low pressure is moving onshore this morning from our West, with light rain and south winds ramping up.  Steep storm swell from the southwest will follow.  At the same time, a cold low pressure system is dropping south out of the Gulf of Alaska which will be our rain maker for Saturday and Saturday night.   This storm has also whipped up a long period north swell which will start Saturday.  This swell should peak over the weekend with deepwater heights in the 8-12ft range with periods in the 14-15 sec range.  Angle of approach 299 +.  Problem will be the winds - southeast today, turning to the south/southwest tomorrow and increasing in intensity during the day.  So only spots protected from southerly winds will be rideable.  Everything else will be a junk fest.  Plenty to ride if you know where to look.  Cya in the water.

East Coast and Sandy

Just wanted to let everyone know there are a lot of fellow surfers and other Human's still hurting on the East Coast after Hurricane Sandy.  Do what you can to help.  Check out the blog on my site called The Endless Bummer (under "Blogs I follow")  - they've posted some great stories, links, etc since Sandy swept through.  Just because the media has already moved on - doesn't mean people aren't still suffering and need a hand.  Even giving something small will go a long way to helping people get back on their feet.  Cya in the water.

Pattern to Change

One more really nice morning/day on tap tomorrow with light to offshore winds and fun size surf.  Things begin to break down late Thursday and could stay stormy right into the first part of the following week as low pressure will set up shop in the North Pacific and send a series of storms our way.  Showers, rain along with south to southeast winds look pretty likely from Thursday night on.  So get it while you can.  Swell will jump towards the weekend as well - the challenge will be finding some place clean to ride.  But could see solid double overhead surf (and larger) at north facing breaks come Saturday.  Cya in the water.

Hello Orion...

The winter time constellation Orion rises a bit more each night in the Eastern Sky.  Cold temps tonight as dry air filters in following our departing low pressure system.  Winds are dropping and will turn northeast overnight.  Sunday should be crisp and cool and if we're lucky feature offshore winds for the morning session.  Fading north windswell in the water at 5 ft 11 sec from around 330.  Look for fun size surf for the next few days (3-5ft deepwater) and light morning winds.  Next shot of weather gets in here mid to late next week along with more swell, perhaps quite big by next weekend.  Enjoy the next couple.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Cold low pressure system is dropping south along the West Coast this morning.  West winds are blowing and we have junky windswell.  This system will spread showers from north to south later today and continue into Friday with low snow levels and west to northwest winds.  Swell will fill behind the front tomorrow from 295-320 with double overhead sets possible at north facing breaks.  Size sticks around Saturday (and the nw winds), before dropping out Sunday.  Winds may be lighter on Sunday morning.  If you know where to look you'll find something to ride.  Cya in the water.

10 ft at 17 seconds

Big northwest swell is filling in today - 10ft at 17 from 290-310.  Swell will peak on Monday with double overhead (and larger) sets at north facing breaks.  The next two days look really nice with warm temps and offshore winds.  Especially Monday. Enjoy it now - starting Wednesday thru the weekend a strong, cold low pressure system will drop south from Canada ushering in very cool temps, showers and unsettled weather.  So get out and enjoy the next two days.  cya in the water.

Bigger this coming weekend into Monday

West swell in the water this AM 5-6 ft at 10 from 280.  Winds are light, should pick up a bit this pm when the front pulls through.  High pressure will build back in today pushing the storm track to the north until mid next week.  We SHOULD see light/variable/offshore winds the next 3-4 days in the mornings.  But check the wind links each morning as the forecast is highly variable at the moment.  Mid period swell around today and fading tomorrow into Saturday.  Sunday, new pulse of West swell rises up from 260-290 with deepwater in the 4-7ft range.  Good for overhead waves at north facing breaks.  By Monday, deepwater will be 6-10 ft with double overhead sets at north facing breaks as the swell peaks.  Good run of weather/surf coming up.  Cya in the water.

Hit and miss this week, mostly miss...

Storm system due to come ashore Wednesday and Thursday this week with rain and south/southwest winds.  We're going to have west swell most of the week - in the 5-7 ft range (deepwater) - the hard part will be finding someplace clean to ride. I think the first "cleaner" day will be on Friday when the winds should be light in the am/or light north.  Until then, check the winds each morning and you might be able to hunt something to ride.  Might be a good week to get some work done, walk the dog, take the wife/girlfriend to dinner.  Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Light n/ne winds should be the rule tomorrow morning - at least near the coast.  Winds are blowing much harder at the outer waters, but doesn't appear those winds will make it to area beaches.  At least for now.  Keep an eye on it for sure - as the wind forecast is tricky this weekend.  Swell wise, smallish surf prevails all weekend - 3-4-5ft at north facing breaks.  Probalby smaller at south facing breaks.  Incoming swell is 270-295.  Size may come up a tick on Sunday.  By Halloween we should have a larger west swell but i'll update on that early next week.  Next rain comes in on Halloween into Thursday.  So, fun size surf this weekend and we should have good AM conditions.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Another pulse of rain moved through last evening, mainly north of GG.  Winds are offshore/sideshore this AM.  Look for improving winds for Thurs/Fri morning sessions - which should be offshore.  Small northwest swell and southwest swell in the water should make for fun size waves in the 3-5ft range.  Looks like the rain is going to slow down until early next week.  Nice weekend ahead weather wise, but we could see a bit more onshore flow by then.  Keep an eye on the winds.  Stuff to ride for sure. Cya in the water.

Storm door open, better conditions towards the weekend

Strong low pressure in the North Pacific will continue to rotate waves of showers/rain through our area through tonight.  Winds are out of the southeast right now with a mix of small gulf windswell at 4.5 ft at 10 seconds from 325 and very tiny southwest swell.  Next three days look sketchy at best, but check the winds.  By the weekend, high pressure may briefly build over the region giving us some sun and perhaps more favorable winds.  I'll update later in the week.  As a side note, was in Rhode Island over the past weekend and it was firing Friday and Saturday from hurricane swell.  Pretty amazing stretch of coast line if you can catch it good.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast - No reports Oct 18-22

Fog finally cleared out and the northwest wind machine ramped up behind it.  Warm temps inland will continue for the next two days - with perhaps a hint of offshore flow near the beaches by Thursday.  Should at least be warmer coast side, but you'll likely need protection from the nw winds.  Current swell is winding down today but still solid at 6-9 ft with periods in the 11-13 sec range.  Reinforcing shot of west/northwest swell will fill in during the day on Wednesday - pumping surf back up in the double overhead range at north facing breaks.  Then we'll see a gradual fade into the weekend as size drops a bit each day.   Looks like the nw winds will regain strength and remain problematic right into the weekend.  Get what you can over the next few days because things will slow down by early next week. We're also probably going to get our first real rain event of the season starting next Monday, lasting through mid week as a large area of low pressure will dominate the flow out in the Pacific and send us a few storms.  Forecast models today coming into good agreement on this major pattern change.  I'm away Oct 18-22, however all the links and such remain active and current.  Cya in the water.

Next Swell Lining Up

Fog and light onshores today as mid period west northwest swell continues.  Our next larger swell is currently showing at Papa Buoy at 13-15 ft at 12-14 seconds.  This swell will start to show late Monday, peaking Tuesday and Wednesday.  Should see double overhead sets at times both days.
Direction 285-300.  Swell will slowly fade late week.  We may see another run of northwest swell next weekend.  Tropical storm Paul, south of Cabo is forecast to become a hurricane late tonight.  South facing breaks could see a shot of SSE swell later in the week from Paul.  Winds at the coast remain a challenge to forecast.  Models are calling for warm temps inland and north winds starting Tuesday.  Winds could get quite strong over our outer waters.  Could see some offshore component to the wind by Wednesday.  A very active storm track is just to our north, slamming Oregon with rain.  This track is forecast to slowly dip south by about Friday, which will mean much cooler temps next weekend and perhaps some light precip.  So plenty of surf on tap the next seven days - just check the winds and you might find some surf windows.  cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Wrap around moisture from a departing low pressure system brought light rain to much of the region last night - much to the surprise of this weather watcher and the boys that do this for a living at NOAA. Just goes to show you that sometimes Mother Nature has the last word.  Left behind, we have more onshore flow today, low clouds and fog.  Winds are light, but blowing enough to make a mess of things.  We have more swell on the way.  Mid period west northwest swell moves in tomorrow and Saturday.  Should be good for head to a bit overhead surf at north facing breaks.  Direction 270-290.  Next storm behind this - further out in the Pacific (see chart) will bring waves for Sunday thru early next week.  This will feature more mid period swell (11-14 second bands) from 280-300.  Probably at it's peak will feature more overhead waves at good north facing breaks.  High pressure will build back in again over the weekend and it's going to shove the storm track way north.  So we should not have any more rain, could see nice conditions by the weekend and into early next week.  Wind forecast is CALLING for light morning winds, but definitely check it each day as the forecast could be a bit optimistic.  However, after today it looks to me like winds should be pretty light each morning.  Plenty of surf, check the winds.  Cya in the water.

New long period swell at outer buoys....

New swell crossing Papa Buoy at 4-7 ft with long periods 19-21 seconds.  This is from extratropical storm Maliksi which raced off the Northern Japan coast late last week, reformed under the Kuril Islands and developed into quite a solid fetch headed in our direction.  Swell could be quite solid by sunrise Wednesday, expect head to possible double overhead sets at north facing breaks.  Because this swell is coming from a long ways out - you can expect some waits between sets.  Angle of approach about 298.  Size will drop some on Thursday (as will period) but still pretty solid.  Winds right now continue to look light for morning sessions - just a bit of west of northwest - but in the less than 5kt range.  Low pressure storm system is just offshore today, and will drift southeast along the coast overnight.  The northern branch of the jetstream is supposed to get pretty energized by the weekend and into next week - how far south that energy drops will determine how much rain we're going to get.  Right now looks like we're on the southern extent of any precip - but an active pattern just to our north is taking hold.  More swell will probably follow for next week but from a much steeper angle of approach.  Plenty of surf the next few days. Good conditions.  Cya in the water.

WNW Swell Filling in - bigger next week

Fun size WNW swell from former Typhoon Jelawat has been filling in all afternoon. Right now deepwater heights are 2.4 ft at 17 from 290 plus.  Swell will peak tomorrow with overhead waves at the best north facing breaks.  Swell will stick around until Wednesday, when new swell from former Typhoon Maliski charges in. Early forerunners will be on the rise next Tuesday with long periods 17-20 seconds from 295 to 305.  Period will drop late next week Friday to Sunday.  At north facing breaks this swell will feature overhead waves with double overhead sets possible as the swell fills in later in the week.  Winds continue to look pretty good for the morning sessions (today was spectacular) - but we could see some unsettled weather start Monday night and last into Thursday.  Weather models are now hinting at perhaps a stronger storm next weekend.  All n all, looks like Fall around here.  Cya in the water.

Light and variable, fun surf ahead

Winds are ESE this am.  Area beaches look fun with a mix of small south/north windswell.  Look for this to continue thru the weekend with a mix of small swells.  Winds should remain light/variable (especially for mornings).  A low pressure system will approach the coast late Sunday - bringing our first chance for measurable light rain through Tuesday.  No major storm/swell makers on the horizon - just surf in the fun size zone.  Cya in the water.

Updated Surf and Weather Forecast

Well, hope you enjoyed the past few days.  The winds have shifted and a southerly surge is underway bringing cooler temps, onshore/sw winds for the next couple of days.  We have a new mid period (very north) windswell in the water at 7-9 ft at 10-11 seconds from 320 + - and ongoing southwest swell in the 2ft range with periods down to 14 seconds.  For the next few days low pressure offshore will slowly creep towards the West Coast - bringing much cooler temps and a chance of showers over the weekend.  We could see light winds for Saturday/Sunday (mornings) - and a new shot of northwest swell for both days.  Nothing big, just more surf in the head high ( a touch bigger) range for north facing breaks.  Check the winds, still plenty of surf on tap.  Cya in the water.

It's Almost Like Disneyland

Finally, light offshores have returned to Central/Northern CA.  Warm day all the way to area beaches.  Good mix of northwest swell 6-7 ft at 13-14 sec and ongoing southwest from 2-3 ft with periods around 17 sec.  Look for the southwest to actually increase Monday and Tuesday as the northwest swell fades some.  In fact, look for pretty decent waves and conditions for most of the coming week as another smaller round of northwest swell will fill in Wednesday and stick around through Friday.  Southwest swell will hang in there all week.  Pattern may start to break down next weekend with cooler temps (possible rain showers) as low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska will finally rotate through our region.  Until then, next few days look really nice - especially for the morning sessions.  Get out and enjoy.  Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

New NW swell has been showing at Papa Buoy for a number of hours now - 10-14 ft with periods 12-15 seconds.  Note, the Calif Buoy still needs to be redeployed, so we don't get another reading on incoming swell trains until they hit our far northern buoys.  Given size at Papa - still think we'll see deepwater heights of 6-8 ft around here - maybe a touch bigger to our north.  Weather boys are forecasting a good heat wave with light to offshore winds over the next few days - but i'm not sure i am buying the warm up all the way to the coast to get rid of this fog.  I can't remember a September so foggy - but that's what we have been dealt.  Sunday and Monday look the warmest, and the best chance  of less fog.  However, winds look to stay fairly light through the period - especially for AM sessions.  We have a nice southwest swell in the water most of the weekend too.  So, plenty of swell, check the winds and i'm sure you'll find something to ride.  cya in the water.

Next Swell Loading Up

Morning sat shot shows another strong storm in the Gulf - with associated wind fetch extending back through the North Pacific.  This is our swell maker for Saturday/Sunday.  Won't quite be as big as this past swell, however look for solid 8-10 ft deepwater by Sunday morning.  Saturday will feature 5-8 ft deepwater.  Not as much West - angle of approach will be 295-320.  We will also have a decent southwest swell in the water as well.  Over the next two days some extreme angle SSE tropical swell from Hurricane Miriam is also possible.  Plenty of surf for the next 7 days.  The only problem is the persistent fog and onshore winds which look to continue through the period.  Making a muck out of what would be a pretty fine run of surf for us. But check the winds, could be some moments and/or spots that work.  Just need to be on it and hunt.  Cya in the water.

10 ft at 17 seconds

Swell arrived overnight - firing right now - but the low level winds have not changed from onshore.  So most points from the Bay Area north are a bit funky.  Winds sw/west.  On the light side, but enough to mess spots up.  If you go hunting you'll find plenty of swell in the water.  While it will remain warm inland with typical September weather, the coast looks to remain locked under onshore flow most of the week.  Tracking another swell for the weekend - touch smaller than our current, but should still be solid size.  More on that mid week.  cya in the water.

Happy Autumn Everyone

First day of Autumn.  Good times.  Right on cue, we'll have light winds Sunday, turning offshore on Monday.  First big swell of the season is in the water and on track to blast at first light on Monday.  Swell will fill in overnight Sunday - peak late Monday - with plenty of size left around Tuesday/Wednesday.  Monday should see 8-12 ft at 15 seconds from 288-300.  Until then, windswell and southwest swell for Sunday with what should be pretty clean conditions as we're going to be under a fairly neutral wind pattern with a thermal low pressure system over the top of CA.  Might see some patchy fog in the morning, but it will clear out quickly.  Enjoy the season.  Cya in the water. ***does not appear offshore flow will make it the coast now on Monday.

Here We Go.....

First real storm of the season winding up in the North Pacific.  This system will send us a large swell for Monday and Tuesday.  Look for deepwater heights on Monday 8-12 ft at 16 seconds from 288.  Tuesday size and period should drop 8-9 ft at 12 seconds.  Winds are going to be tricky, could actually see some light surface offshore flow early next week.  Until then, winds are going to pick up from the northwest each day for afternoon sessions - morning winds might be a touch lighter.  We do have a fun mix of small northwest swell and southwest swell in the water today - but you need to find protection from the winds that are blowing hard.  cya in the water.

NW Winds

NW winds blowing hard and look to stay that way through the week.  We're in a rex block pattern with deep low pressure in the Gulf of AK - and high pressure just off BC.  By the weekend - a very deep and unseasonable low pressure system is forecast to drop right over Nor Cal - still unsure how much precip is going to arrive with this system - but the potential is there for some very light rain. However, more interesting will be the swell that develops with this system that should start to arrive around Sunday/Monday and continue for a few days.  I'll get the size dialed in on that one later in the week.  We have some decent background south in the water through the period.  But it's going to take a proper ass beating coming up the coast against the NW wind.  Very unusual September we have going.  By now the flow normally changes in the lower levels to offshore - but not seeing anything resembling a pattern change yet.  But the season is changing for sure with the Autumn Equinox just a few days away.  Find shelter from the winds for the next 4-5 days and you might find something to ride.  Cya in the water. 

Starting the week

Winds stayed pretty light to near calm most of the day - with super small surf.  As we start the week, look for light winds to continue each morning - picking up for the afternoon sessions.  South to southwest swell should continue to pulse all week.  We also have a couple of tropical systems south - that could potentially send up some swell, however this will probably be lost in the more dominant long period south action.  Windswell will cross up the south at times during the week.  Things get more interesting towards next weekend - when we might have our first chance of rain in the region.  This system is also forecast to pump out decent swell from about Sept 24th on - looks like it could be three to four days of swell from the northwest.  All this is just model forecast right now - i'll start to dial in the details later this week.  So, smallish surf on tap most of the week - but should be some stuff to ride.  NW winds might increase a bit by next Friday.  Cya in the water. 

Updated Forecast

After a few nice mornings at local beaches, we're back to small surf and light onshore winds.  We do have a small pulse of south swell in the water - 2.9 at 17 from 170-190.  That is going to be around all weekend.  Problem remains the winds and fog which should remain light onshore through the period.  Things may improve next Monday and Tuesday, when the morning winds look favorable again.  Windswell will pick up again late Saturday night into Sunday, as high pressure to our north will continue to interact with thermal low pressure inland and to the south.  This will create winds over the open, outer waters.  So, you might find a few nuggets over the weekend if you know where to look.  No big storms out in the Pacific at the moment.  Cya in the water.

Week Ahead

Well, northwest winds made a mess of what should have been a nice longer period north swell over the weekend.  Never had a chance really.  Look for strong winds to continue the next two days or so - then we might see things relax for morning sessions Wednesday thru Friday.  Another system in the Gulf of Alaska is fading tonight - not much swell present with this one - however due to the high pressure offshore interacting with low pressure to our south - we should see a pretty decent windswell event for Wed - Thurs - with deepwater heights in the 6-8 ft range a 9-10 seconds.  This will fade on Friday.  Background south swell will continue most of the week - perhaps some signs of a stronger push of sw swells for late in the week and into the following.  More on that to come.  NO sign of any big offshore wind event on the horizon.  Cya in the water.

Update on Weekend Swell

Weekend swell is in the water and pushing south.  *As of Friday AM - swell hitting Papa Buoy at 10ft 15 sec. This should be good for 4-6 ft by the time it reaches our coast.  Swell will build in all day Saturday, slow at first.  Could have some decent energy in the water by sunset.  By Sunday morning - swell should be in full force with overhead waves at north facing breaks.  We'll have another southwest swell underneath over the weekend - which might create a good cross up at beach breaks.  Problem this weekend will be the northwest winds - as high pressure will re build in the East Pacific and increase the gradient.  I think Sunday will have the heaviest winds - from dawn to dusk.  Saturday morning may have lighter northwest wind flow.  So, from Saturday afternoon on - plenty of swell just check the winds and if you know your spots you'll have something to ride.  Cya in the water.

25 ft at 13 seconds...

Gulf Storm at left ramping up and dropping south nicely under the Aleutians.  Latest buoy report up there is showing 25ft at 13 seconds.  This energy will be our weekend swell.  Probably start seeing some energy on Friday.  This swell should be in the 4-7 ft range - periods initially at 15 seconds (Saturday), dropping to 12 seconds on Sunday.  Direction - 307 degrees.  Nice pulse of northwest swell.  Winds look to stay fairly light most of the week for the mornings.  I'll update the wind forecast later in the week.  cya in the water.

Updated Forecast - New Gulf Gale

South swell continues to hang around, deep water readings 2-2.5ft at 17 seconds from 170-190.  Swell should fade out of here completely by late Tuesday.  Windswell will then take over for most of the week.  A new storm dropping south under the Aleutians is forecast to gain strength and wind is pushing pretty good to the East.  If things hold together, we'll see a shot of mid period northwest swell next weekend - probably in the 3-5 ft range (deepwater) - maybe a touch bigger the further north you go.  This event should hang around most of next weekend.  Winds this week look fairly light from the west or northwest all week.  Fog remains locally dense near the coast.   I don't see anything changing the wind flow this week.  Will remain onshore.  I'll update Wednesday on the incoming swell train for the weekend.  Cya in the water.

September!

Impressive south swell sweeping the California Coast today.  Look for chest to head high + waves on Sunday at best breaks - with light west winds forecast early.  Light winds should also be the rule for Monday morning.  Swell will begin a slow fade on Monday, but still plenty of energy.  Still watching a couple lows under the Aleutians, dropping south - starting to look more like Fall in the North Pacific - and right on cue.  More on potential swell from these systems on Monday.  Cya in the water.

End of Summer

You made it through another summer in Nor Cal.  Tomorrow marks the opening of the 2012-2013 Fall/Winter Surf season.  We will have surf this weekend as well.  Here's how it breaks down this morning:

First - swell from Hurricane Illena is showing - 1-2 ft at 11-12 seconds from 165-175.  Probably not very noticeable.  North windswell is 5-7 ft at 7-8 seconds.  The bigger inbound swell, this south swell that everyone has hyped all week - is just showing in So Cal.  I've seen some readings at 3-4 ft at 20-22 seconds (deepwater).  This is a good sign, and just the earlier beginnings of this event.  Don't think we'll see anything up here until very late today or tonight.  By tomorrow, swell should be filling in nicely along the coast.  Should stick around through Monday.  Fog has really plowed inland today and will stick around through tomorrow.  Warmer temps expected on Sunday and Monday, inland mainly.  Winds are light onshore and will probably stay that way through the period.  This is good however, because the inbound swell train will not encounter huge northwest winds down the coast which will help maintain some size.   Out in the North Pacific, watching a couple systems taking shape under the Aleutians, but as of today, no wind fetch really associated with either headed our way.  If you know where to look this weekend you will probably find some fun waves.  Cya in the water. 

Updated Forecast

Winds have calmed down a bit this morning after yesterday afternoon's complete blow out.  Windswell in the water, the 8 second variety.  Sun is out, not too much fog.  Watching a couple features today. First, what hopes to be a decent size south swell event for us this weekend is in the water and moving north.  Expect swell arrival on Friday with long period (19-20 sec) forerunners increasing later in the day.  Swell should peak on Saturday, period drops to 18 sec and size should fill in.  Period will drop to 15-16 sec on Sunday.  At the same time, we might have some background south swell from Tropical Storm Ileana which is moving north under Cabo San Lucas.  This swell will be lost under the larger south.  By Thursday and into Friday, windswell will increase to 4-6 ft, this, along with the continued northwest winds in the outer waters could certainly impact the incoming southerly swell trains and degrade size.  Just have to see when the swell enters our waters.  The northwest winds are suppose to drop some by Saturday (5-15kts) - so that might help.  Typhoon Bolaven, off North Korea is forecast to re curve off the North Pacific late in the week over the weekend, might bring some minimal swell for the Pacific Northwest early next week.  That is if it all behaves as forecast.  I do not think we'll see much swell from this storm.  Cya in the water.

Last Days of August

Small pulse of Gulf Swell is hitting this am - deepwater around 2ft at 10-12 sec from 325.  This will stick around until Wednesday.  This swell has come in a bit smaller than forecast, due to the trajectory of the Gulf Storm over the weekend.  Just didn't get much of a wind field aimed at the Nor Cal coast.  It's fairly clean this AM - just small.  We look for increasing NW winds during the week, which will kick up the windswell again.  Could see somewhat lighter winds for the upcoming holiday weekend.  Main story for the upcoming week is the track of a decent size south swell, in the water and headed our way.  Should see long period forerunners on Friday and this swell will last all weekend.  Other forecast sites have been hyping this swell for over a week now, i'm not ready to jump on the bandwagon just yet.  It does look decent for 3-4 ft deep water swell heights with very long periods.  How big it gets for us depends on how much northwest wind knocks the size out as it marches up our Coast.  NW winds are suppose to lighten up a bit on Friday, so that's a great sign.  I'll update more on this swell and wind as the week goes.  Otherwise, not tracking anything else significant at this point in the North Pacific.  There is another low pressure system moving inland to our northwest tomorrow, but it won't be strong enough to get into the Great Basin and reverse the wind flow.  Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast - Gulf Low

Upper level low (top of picture) is dropping south this morning out of the Gulf of Alaska.  Winds with this system just starting to ramp up.  Swell from this system will probably start Monday (perhaps late Sunday) and stick around until next Wednesday.  Probably looking for 2-4 ft deepwater swell from 310-330 - so pretty steep angle of approach.  Mid periods.  But it's a nice sign.  Also watching a couple of Typhoons in the far West Pacific.  This is also an indication that things are starting to change as the calendar heads towards September.  Better news perhaps is the end it appears of La Nina and a return to a neutral or mild El Nino this coming Fall/Winter which could help fuel more storms and more swells to grace our coast. Now if we can just get some systems diving into the Great Basin to give us north to northeast flow at the surface we can scour out this fog and get down to some long overdue business.  You feel me?  Until then, the weekend wind forecast looks light for the mornings with south to west winds so the AM sessions might be the best call to take advantage of lighter flow.  Cya in the water.

Wind swell, small Gulf swell early next week?

NW Windswell on the rise tonight and for the next couple days.  Should be good for head to slighty overhead surf at north facing breaks at it's peak.  Winds are still onshore, the fog is still in and conditions are reserved for the most desperate.  I am watching a weak weather system just dropping out of the Bering Sea tonight (i'm really reaching here, can you tell?)  Anyway, if this little sucker pulls it together we could see a small mid period north swell come in next Mon/Tues.  That's still a long way off - but it's something to watch.  More on that by Friday.  Cya in the water. ***ALSO - added a new link to the Forecast at right - it's the Goes NOAA High Density Winds page.  This is a good look at the upper level winds with storm/storm fronts.  Colored arrows indicate strength (number of barbs on each line) and direction. Good tool to keep an eye on when storms start to head our way this fall. 

Good Week To Get Things Done.....

Pretty small surf on tap most of the week with NW winds on and off.  Might see a slight increase in NW windswell by around Wednesday.  A few small lows are forecast in the Gulf of Alaska, but right now doesn't look like either will push swell our way.  Will monitor just in case.  Hang in there and cya in the water.

Hit and miss south

Ventured up to a spot today I thought would harness some of this south.  No luck.   A couple pulses showed promise, but otherwise, whole lot of effort for little return.  It's a sneaky, elusive south swell, and like I said before, missing most of the Nor Cal Coast from the looks of it.  Winds are up some, but actually not horrible for the time of day.  I'd say check it early on Sunday, keep an eye on the winds, maybe some left over windswell dribble at a north facing break.  It's all we have for the next few days.  I am watching another weather system in the Gulf of Alaska this afternoon as it is dropping south, but feel the wind field and the trajectory will not be much of a swell maker for us.  More on that in the next day.  cya in the water.

South Swell and NW Winds for the Weekend

Extreme angled south swell showing this morning with long period energy - 2.4 at 20 from 165 degrees.  It will miss most of the N Coast with that approach.  But some spots may pull in the energy.  If you know where to look, you'll find some waves. Windswell in the water  all weekend.  NW winds are picking up and should blow pretty steady from AM to PM especially at exposed breaks.  Very slight chance of rain tonight into Saturday, as monsoon moisture is being advected up from Mexico (remnants of TS Hector).  South will fill in all weekend - should peak at 3ft (deep water) with long periods 17-19 seconds.  Cya in the water.

3.2 at 11 sec from 290

Small pulse of Gulf swell has arrived this am - not much 3-4 ft at 11 seconds - but given the way things have been around here - it's something to talk about.  Winds are still an issue, but only blowing lightly onshore, fog is in.  Still, you might find a spot to get wet.  Get it while you can.  Not much else to speak of until late this week when a pretty steep angled south swell arrives.  More on that by Friday.  cya in the water.

Gulf Swell still on track

Storm under the Aleutians will send down a pulse of WNW swell (285-300) for Wednesday/Thursday this coming week.  Probably good for chest/head high sets at best exposures.  SSW swell will continue all week then be joined late in the week by a S-SE swell (165-180) around Aug 18-22.  Because of the angle of approach, this swell will miss a lot of spots in Nor Cal, but breaks that can harness the angle might see some chest high sets.  Tropical Storm Hector is 320 miles south of Baja, but looks to move due West and weaken as we start the week.  If we see any swell from Hector it will probably be lost in the mix of SSW-S-SE swells for the week.  We could see lighter AM winds Tuesday thru Thursday - so check the wind links for early morning sessions to see if it's a go.  No other swell maker in the North Pacific behind the current storm.  No extra tropical systems either re curving off Japan.  Keeping an eye on everything now for stronger signs of Fall.  A few more weeks....cya in the water.

Signs of life in the North Pacific

Forecast models show a storm developing in the Gulf of Alaska over the upcoming weekend.  If the storm forms as forecast, we could see our first mid period WNW swell (285-300) around the 15th/16th of August.  We also have a nice run of SSW swell (180-205) starting on Friday and that will last through Monday.  Could see shoulder to head high sets on occasion at breaks that harness that southern hemi energy.  Winds are still an issue from the northwest, with high pressure surrounding the entire region.  But there are spots that will be clean.  Cya in the water. 

Northwest Wind Machine Ramps Up

WNW winds are starting to blow as high pressure builds over California and to the west and northwest.  Expect winds most of the week - perhaps slowing down a bit by Friday.  Windswell will be the rule for the days ahead and we have an extreme angled SSE swell filling in today (right now 2ft at 20 sec).  This SSE will only show at breaks that can handle the angle of approach (155-170 deg).  SW background swell to continue too.  Need to find protection from the winds this week if you want to get waves.  cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Mix of fun size southwest swell and north windswell for Saturday and Sunday.  Combo beach breaks will probably be best.  Winds are looking a bit lighter than what we've had - but mornings will still be the best call as the winds will increase during the day.  Do some searching around and you'll probably find something to ride.  Cya in the water.

Week Ahead

Did you like this weekend?  Well if so then you'll like the coming week.  Modest windswell, background pulses of sw swell and onshore winds.  Best bet will be protected breaks from the wind.  You might get lucky very early in the mornings at the beach breaks. Many of you miss my multiple updates during the week - those will start Sept 1 when hopefully I have something to talk about surf wise.  Keeping an eye on the West Pac for early signs of life.  cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Weekend looks like this - nw windswell and new ssw swell.  Light onshore winds and fog each morning.  Need to find protected breaks for something clean to ride. The afternoon light is slowly changing, the buckeye's up in Marin are turning.  We'll be into August and see more light at the end of the tunnel.  Waiting on the NPac to wake up from it's summer sleep.  cya in the water.

Week Ahead

SW swell in the water for next couple days along with nw windswell.  Winds look light this am.  Could be some pulses at south facing breaks and it does appear winds will continue to be an issue on and off through the week.  Lightest winds in the mornings.  Getting close to August.  Things will start to change.  September not too far off now.  Hang in there.  cya in the water.

Emilia, Fabio - Weekend Forecast

Background SSE swell in the water from Hurricane Emilia over the weekend - deepwater 1-2 from 160 - probably not even noticeable under the more dominant windswell.  TS Fabio is moving on the same track, could send some swell up here early next week.  Otherwise - windswell the rule and west to southwest winds through the period.  Find protected spots and you might have something to ride.  Otherwise - dog days of summer in Nor Cal.  I'm off to Mexico next week - will not be updating this blog until 7-23.  cya in the water.

Tropical Storm Daniel & Weekend Forecast

TS Daniel is moving into open water well south of Baja and into our swell window.   He's a small storm, with 60kt winds gusting to 70kt.  The storm will intensify just a bit before moving into cooler waters in the next 24 hrs.  If we see swell from Daniel it will arrive mid to end of next week.  We also have a sw swell filling in - 2.3 at 20 from 230.  This swell was heavily shadowed by Tahiti on it's way north so expect long lulls.  We also have a small north gulf swell at 3.0 @11 sec from 310.  Winds still remain an issue at most breaks (except protected spots) - but lighter than they've been the past few days.  High pressure over the Central US is moving West and expected to bring much warmer temps to our region through the weekend and into next week.  However, cooler onshore air/wind may stay right along the immediate coast, so not sure it's going to be one of those events where we get some relief for some good surf days with no wind.  But worth watching.  Keep an eye on the winds and fog development and you might get lucky.  cya in the water.

July Upon Us....

We're almost to the halfway point of the non surfing season in Nor Cal.  Congrats, you've made it.  I'd like to say winds of change are upon us, but the only winds will be coming from the NW as we move more towards the 4th.  Lighter s/sw winds on Saturday, will give way to light NW winds on Sunday - and then the NW wind machine will ramp up through the week.  With it, the windswelll will increase in size.  Not much from the southern hemi - just background swell.  Maybe some dribble to ride early this Sat/Sun.  Keep your expectations low and you might be rewarded.  cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

I was away on business this week - forecast for the week ahead looks like small sw swell fading out on Monday and then windswell and small nw swell in the water for most of the week.  Winds do look on the lighter side as we start the week - but then forecast to get stronger out of the northwest later in the week.  Low pressure system sitting just off the coast tonight will lift out of here on Tuesday bringing warmer temps again inland.  Models are suggesting another cool down next weekend.  So, smallish surf most of the week - might be some moments to get wet - check the winds.  cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Large windswell in the water today as winds continue to howl offshore.  Small mid period ground swell from an old typhoon in the West Pac is also in the mix, but mainly lost under the dominant windswell.  This is an interesting swell however, since it's the first of two typhoons that are curving north of Japan and getting caught in the westerlies and bringing swell in our direction. More typical of a Fall pattern, but with La Nina fading could be a good sign for the months ahead.  Small southwest/south swell in the water as well.  Look for this trend to continue through the weekend - windswell, background mid period swell (both from the north/northwest) and southern hemi.  Temps get super hot with possible offshore winds this weekend too.  Could clean up some north facing breaks if the forecast holds.  cya in the water

Weekend Forecast

Strong north-northwest winds continue over the outer waters - 25-29kts already this am.  Short to mid period (8-10 sec) north swell filtering in from a storm that was up in the Gulf of AK the past couple days.  Look for this swell to stick around through Sunday and mix in with shorter period windswell.  Also in the mix will be some southwest swell, but only noticeable at south facing breaks.  Probably see head high plus at north facing breaks, but hacked by wind.  Cleaner, smaller at south facing breaks.  Big tide swings this weekend - low tides for AM sessions.  Incoming in the PM.  Water temp still hovering around 49.  Should be something to ride if you know where to look.  cya in the water.

Week Ahead and Hand Planes

 Good friend of mine is shaping these great hand planes.  We did some test runs on them yesterday in some local windslop - super fun.  The lift, drive and pocket position you can achieve using one of these is really special.  If you're interested in one, let me know and i'll get you connected.

Meanwhile, strong late season storm out of the Gulf of Alaska is dropping rain this morning and bringing sw winds.  Swell is a mix of small north and new south showing with some longer periods.  But conditions are trashed due to the wind direction.  Northwest winds for the remainder of the week as high pressure takes control.  We will have a mix of windswell, small traces of north swell and background swell from the southern hemi.  Best bet will probably be breaks protected from the wind.