By now depending on where you consume your surf forecast, you've heard we have a very strong south swell inbound starting tomorrow (for So Cal), filling in and pretty much pumping Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday. I've heard nonsense like 11ft @19 seconds, 100 year swell, etc. Is it going to be big? Yes, it will actually be a very strong swell - and in the middle of quite a run of south swells over the past two weeks (Thank you building El Niño). I do think this swell will end up being one of the bigger swells of the past couple years, peaking around 4-5ft@19-20 seconds on Tuesday/Wednesday. 100 year swell? Probably not. Now a few factors to take into account. First, the actual swell might end up coming in bigger than forecast. It was a powerful storm that created it, down in the favorable east of New Zealand corridor. What makes it stronger than most, winds, fetch and movement. The storm was taking a favorable northeast track towards HI/So Cal swell windows, moving over an already disturbed ocean state thanks to these pre running south swells and when you have wind and storm moving in the same direction (virtual fetch) you get a significant swell event. I'd say keep an eye on the buoys around Tuesday. That will be a good indicator of what we are dealing with. For Nor Cal, SF and points beyond - the real action will likely be later Tuesday and then all day Wednesday. This is also the kind of swell event that will light up novelty, rare south swell points and reefs, so if you know, you know. Winds will not be ideal - strong northwest flow is forecast most of the week. Cya in the water.
No comments:
Post a Comment