UPDATED FORECAST, THE WEEK AHEAD....

Lull between storms today as high pressure briefly sweeps in over the region.  Swell on the small side, left overs at around 6@11sec from 285.   Winds are light.   New swell sweeps in overnight from our most recent storm - peaking tomorrow at around 8-10 ft @16 seconds from 275.  Swell will still be decent at 9-11 ft on Thursday and then slow face into the weekend.   Rain tomorrow and again on Friday.   Winds not too bad until the Friday storm when they will ramp up from the southeast again.   Beyond next weekend - forecasts calling for perhaps a very stormy period about the middle of next week with the potential for heavy rain.  Still very early but something to keep an eye on.  XL swell most likely to result with sloppy conditions.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE WEEK OF 1-15-24

 New storm to come ashore Tuesday/Wednesday this week with a brief break and then potentially a much heavier precipitation pattern headed into next weekend and beyond.  Surf will remain on the smaller side through Friday as the jet stream is displaced some to far north with high pressure hovering along the Pacific Coast stretching to the southwest.  Later this week the jet stream will consolidate once again with stronger winds coming across the Pacific, which will strengthen and fuel storm production.   Winds will be highly variable - strong south to southeast as fronts come ashore, backing to the northwest briefly Wednesday and then blowing strong from the south and southeast into next weekend.  Not seeing much of any swell above 6-8ft through the week.   Might be a good week to get some work done.   Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 1-9-24

 Storm door fairly open with moderate to heavy rain forecast for points north of Mendocino, lighter Bay Area to the south.  Look for on and off rain showers through the week.  The weekend potentially could feature a rather robust storm system depending on how things evolve over the next couple days.  A "Kona" low pressure system moving to the northwest of Hawaii is forecast to merge with a N Pac Low mid week and this combination could bring heavy rain to the West Coast.  Right now models show most of that energy going into the Pac NW and far N Cal as a blocking high pressure ridge may set up right along the CA coast.   Lots of uncertainty however in how this develops - so we wait and see.  On the surf front, plenty of swell around this week but the winds are going to be issue - waffling between southwest/west and northwest as fronts come and go.  Biggest swell of the week should come ashore Wednesday, peaking around 12-14 ft @14 seconds.   Left overs into Thursday, Friday and Saturday as surf heights stay in the 5-8ft range.  I'm not really seeing a clean day for winds through about Saturday - but some spots will be better than others based on orientation to the wind.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 1-1-24

 Storm door remains open and more XXL swells due in over the next 7-10 days.   For far Nor Cal, we will see storm systems about every 36 hour come ashore - with south wind and rain.   First storm comes in Tuesday and will exit Thursday.   Brief break, then more rain and mountain snow this coming weekend.   Big day this coming week will be Wednesday with deep water swell 14-17ft at 14 seconds.  Another West swell at 270 - all these swells in this current cycle have been big west events - given the storm track and flow across the mid latitudes of the N Pac.  Swell will drop a bit this coming Thursday to 6-8 ft and then ratchet back up Friday at 10-12 ft.   Winds really sort of a mess the rest of the week - strong south to strong west/northwest most of the week.  Next series of storms will be colder as we will be more under the influence of the Polar Jetstream and energy coming out of the N Pac.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-26

Hope you had a good Christmas.  Storm door wide open and about to unleash on California for the next few days with XXL surf (already happening), strong, storm force winds and a lot of rain.  South winds through the week - very strong at times, no let up in those winds until Saturday at the earliest.  Main swell event on tap for Thursday when deep water swell heights will peak at 18-21ft at 18 seconds - Very large and dangerous surf a result.   A few spots on the Central and North Coast that will feature some rideable waves at times.  Otherwise, hunker down and enjoy the show.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 12-20, HERE COMES EL NINO

180 Hours out, next Thursday shows a strong jet stream across the entire Pacific Basin with two troughs just digging off the West Coast - this will be a high impact event for next week, mid week on - with high surf, winds and copious amounts of rain and high elevation mountain snow.  Before then, we will see a few more weaker systems stream overhead and a new swell inbound peaking later today into tomorrow at 8-10 ft at 15-16sec from 290.  A couple more nice days coming up, with some north to northwest winds, but swell.  I'd get what you can between now and Sunday/Monday - because after that it's going to be hunker down time.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-13

 Staying on the small side for the most part with a couple mid size swells inbound for Thursday and Friday.   First pulse tomorrow will only be 4-6 ft @16 from the northwest, peaking at 5-7 ft overnight.  We will then transition over to a couple small west and southwest swells due in from a couple storms currently spinning in the N Pac.   Unfortunately those swells will combine with pretty strong southeast winds (especially from Mendocino south through the Bay Area) Friday to Sunday as a cutoff low pressure system hovers offshore sending rounds of wind and potentially some decent rain for Mendo and the Bay Area Friday through the weekend and potentially into the following week.   It will be a tricky 5-7 days coming up between the weather, wind and a couple unusual swell directions from the south/southwest which could end up being of the shorter period variety.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-6/BIG WEDNESDAY

 XXL swell in the water 18-20ft at 17-19 seconds 290-295 deg.  Winds are unfortunately a mess - blowing hard from the south or southwest depending on location - rain is falling hard from BC to Bodega Bay and pushing south through the day.   Looks pretty messy the rest of the week with the lightest winds possibly on Saturday - but we are in a stormy run and winds will alternate between south and north/northwest as fronts come and go through the week.   Today's swell will slowly fade into the weekend, but stay pretty decent sized until Friday.   My last post i  lamented "what's up El Niño," and El Niño decided to answer.....Cya in the water.   

PS - adding a new link to the forecast side - windfinder.com - you can search anywhere and get very reliable readings for things like wind, weather, surf.   check it out.  

UPDATED FORECAST 11-30

 Moderate atmospheric river to impact far N Cal, Oregon, Washington through the weekend - rain line will likely not make it south of the Mendo/Sonoma border as annoying high pressure (what's up El Niño?) - hangs around the Great Basin and NE Pacific - keeping most of the rain to our north.   From a swell production stand point, the machine is running and active as storms are lined up across the Pacific Basin.   Small northwest swell around today - about 3-5 ft, along with some wind swell on the order of 5-7ft.   Northwest winds are blowing over the outer waters, less so near shore.  New northwest swell will build in overnight becoming 6-8ft@13 seconds for Friday, along with lighter winds, small chance of rain north of Bodega Bay.  Swell fades Saturday, as a larger northwest swell fills in over the top pushing to 8-10ft for Sunday, bit smaller Monday.   Winds look light southwest/south for the weekend.   General swell direction for all these hits about 295 to 305 degrees.   Bigger swells on the menu for the first part of December - more on that next week.  Cya in the water.  

11-22, NEW UPDATE FOR REST OF THE WEEK

 First in a series of swells hitting today - 7 -8 @14 from west/northwest (285 deg) - biggest north of Bodega.  Winds for the most part are light.   Weak storm is passing overhead this afternoon - might see a shower or two north of Sonoma - the bigger story will be the north wind that builds in behind this from for tomorrow and Friday with 20-30kts forecast and higher gusts.  That will kick up a large wind swell on the order of 10-12ft - while a smaller long period northwest swell builds in underneath at 3-4@19 seconds from around 295 deg.  Another long period swell fills in for the weekend 5-6@21 seconds as the winds drop out for Saturday/Sunday - which are shaping up to be the best days over the next five or so.   

UPDATED FORECAST - THANKSGIVING WEEK

 High pressure builds in for the next 7-10 days.  We will have periods of light winds, some offshore winds, north winds through the next week.   Small west swell builds in Tuesday, around 5ft@16 seconds, while a bigger swell will take aim at the Coast on Wednesday, biggest Thursday at 8-10ft, slow fade into Friday dropping to 6-8ft.   There are some very large storms out in the Pacific right now - but they will be shunted north all week by the high pressure ridge.   Overall, should be a nice week for CA with primarily fun size surf and decent conditions depending on where you go.   Feels like as we move into December the pattern could very well change back to something much more sinister weather wise - as El Niño is in full flight and the pattern over the Pacific Basin is quite active to say the least.   A strong dip in the jet along with large storm systems and it will be game on.    Cya in the water.   

STORMIN'......UPDATED FORECAST 11-14

No surf for you!  Well actually, spots that like strong south to southeast winds might be kinda fun the next few days - but winds will be strong at times as a cut off low pressure system about 500-700 miles off Pt Reyes sits and spins (cut off from the steering jet stream winds) and pumps rounds of rain, shorter period southerly wind swell into CA.   Pattern to persist all week, a few windows with no rain but overall might be a good week to get some shit done as overall pattern looks pretty dim for good surf.   Cya doing chores and running errands.......

UPDATED FORECAST 11-8, N PAC ABOUT TO GO BOOM

 Fairly average fall surf the rest of the week, getting bigger towards the weekend and then beyond the storm door may open very wide by the middle of next week.   Winds are northwest today and staying out of a general north to northwest direction for the remainder of the week.  Next good shot of waves Friday into Saturday 6-9 ft @14 sec - biggest north of SF.   Lighter winds Sunday, bigger swell due in at 10-11 ft. After that - all eyes towards a large storm system taking up residence in the Gulf - polar jet to perhaps mingle with lower latitude jet stream winds and bring in what will be the strongest storm of this early season with potential for heavy rain, winds and mountain snows.   Large surf most likely a given, clean conditions most likely not!   This rainy pattern looks to start around Monday in the north, continuing thru about next Thursday.  As always - the devil is in the details - read the NWS Eureka and NWS Monterey/SF links for the full details over the next few days as the models come into better agreement on timing for everything.   Until then, plenty of surf to ride, just keep an eye on the winds.   Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 11-4

 As predicted, end of the week bringing a pattern change as a number of storm systems are dropping across the N Pac.   A series of swells to result.   First one due in tonight at 7-9 ft @14 seconds, peaking Sunday at 8-9ft @13.  Direction 280.  Next swell due on the heels Monday, 8-10@14 seconds.  Similar swell direction.  That swell will linger into next Wednesday.  Winds are light south to southwest through Sunday night, switching to west, then northwest mid week.   Couple chances of rain through the next 7 days, but little rainfall expected south of SF/Santa Cruz - storm track/jet stream continues to hover to our north and until we see a strong dip in that jet, we won't get much precipitation.   That will likely start to occur late November and as we move into December.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-27, waiting on a pattern change.....

Staying small through the weekend, with some pulses of south/south west swell rolling in that might provide something to ride at the summer breaks.   Very small northwest wind swell at 3-4ft @11 seconds in the water.   South swell to build to 2 ft @18-19 seconds tonight.  It's cold, as a continental airmass has settled in over the region and will get a reinforcing shot of cold air Saturday into Sunday with locally strong off shore winds perhaps making it to the coast.   Water temps have dropped back to the low 50s, bit warmer Bay Area south.    So small, windy throughout the weekend.   Keeping an eye on mid to late next week for the jet stream to reorganize, westerly winds ramp up and bring rain, wind and swell to the West Coast starting potentially mid week, but might be more like next weekend.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-23

 Staying small this week as the N Pac Jetstream re-organizes - probably see a larger pattern change after Halloween.  Until then, background south swells continue and smaller northwest and north wind swells will be in the water along with stronger north to northwest winds.   Those winds should let up some later this week.  Small chances of rain on and off this week - mostly north of Sonoma County.   A good week to get some stuff done.  Cya in the water.  

12@24 seconds.....!

Northern Buoys are bombing already early this am as a powerful long period swell builds in.  We don't see swell periods in the 24 -25sec range often but that's been showing at the Cape Mendo and Pt Arena Buoys for a few hours now.  Given how large the early forerunners, think this swell will beat the forecast size wise over the next two days.   Light winds today and tomorrow, should be some pretty epic spots. Cya in the water.  

XXL SWELL INBOUND, UPDATED FORECAST 10-17

 Solid northwest swell around today - 8-9ft @14 seconds from around 290 - biggest north of Jenner.  All eyes to mid week when swell from Extra Tropical Storm Bolevan builds in.  Forerunners after dark on Wednesday - 5-6ft @22 seconds from 295deg - jumping up quite quickly on Thursday to 13-14ft@18 seconds.  Then a gradual fade into the weekend.   Weather looks to cooperate for the most part as we have high pressure overhead and forecasted north to offshore winds.  Not sure the models are doing a good job of picking up on the locally dense fog in spots which will affect vis and wind direction - so worth keeping an eye on.   Winds will drop next Saturday, along with swell size.   Pattern changes back to low pressure overhead and slight chance of rain next weekend with a better chance the following week.   Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 10-12

Large northwest swell winding down today, but still solid at 10ft@13 north of Bodega, smaller towards OB and Santa Cruz.   Swell will continue to fade into Friday before the next round of swell arrives, first a moderate period northwest swell for early in the weekend which will peak at 8-9ft@13 and then a longer period, bigger swell potentially from Typhoon Bolaven which turned extra tropical this week and is presently streaming under the Aleutians in the Gulf of Alaska.   Classic El Niño set up in the N Pac right now with a strong jet stream zipping along 40 latitude north with 150-170kt winds feeding various low pressure systems chugging across.  Perfect set up for swell production.   Chance of rain begins on Friday north of Sonoma County and that rain may make it down only as far as Marin.   Better chance of rain area wide by early next week.   Winds north today over the outer waters as high pressure briefly moves over the area and then should remain light south to southwest through next Monday.   Cya in the water. 

UPDATED FORECAST 10-9

 Storm system about to come onshore early this morning with some mid period swell behind it for Tuesday into mid week.  Winds have turned to the south/southeast and will blow from that direction until trough passage later tonight.  Winds will turn strongly from the northwest for Tuesday/Wednesday.  Small south swell in the water right now at 2.6@14 seconds.  Northwest Gulf Swell will build in quickly on Tuesday - 6-8@15 seconds from 319 (steep angle, Bay Area will be heavily shadowed) - followed by another pulse of swell mid week with a better angle (305 deg), deepwater 9-11 ft @13-14 seconds.  Winds will remain from the north to northwest until Friday, turn southwest with more rain chances headed into next weekend.  The northern branch of the jet stream is quite active now and storms are going to ripple through the strong jet all week.   No atmospheric rivers mind you, not yet at least, but a strong sign that El Niño is starting to have an impact on storm and swell production in the Pacific Basin.  Could be a wild ride once we get into the heart of the winter.   Plenty to ride this week, just need to find some protection from the winds depending on the direction.  Cya in the water.