WEEKEND FORECAST & BEYOND - 10-26

Sorry for the break in reports - been surfing a ton and taking advantage of all the swell and good conditions this past month.   We have a pretty decent shot of northwest swell in the water today - deepwater is 8-9 ft at 13 seconds from around 300.   Local beaches are pretty walled, with fog and light winds.   Over the outer waters,  winds are strong from the northwest and pretty ugly.   High pressure is building in today and tomorrow before giving way to a weak system that will move in on Sunday but keep all rain towards the Oregon border.   Winds will probably shift south to southwest ahead of the front and then north to northwest behind it.   Look for the northwest swell to gradually fade but stick around through Sunday, then another northwest swell train will come in with deep water heights projected to be 6-10ft at 15 seconds.  Peaking Monday at 10-11ft.   That swell should stick around well into middle of next week.   Winds aren't looking ideal, however given the time of year we might see some offshore flow for the AM's only - but expect winds to pick up through the day as high pressure will be about and influencing our local wind and weather.   There will continue to be a fair amount of background southwest swell in the 2-3ft range - so it's not over down under yet.   Much of that will get lost in the northwest swell.   Plenty to ride, some spots should be decent.   Cya in the water.

SOLID SOUTHWEST, MORE SWELL ON THE WAY...

SW swell is 3.1 @18 this AM from 210.  Looking for this swell to hang around through Tuesday with light winds.  By midweek, models are growing more confident we will see a very solid west/northwest swell from around 280-300 deg.  Could be good for overhead to double overhead waves at top spots from Wed to Fri.   Winds could be favoring offshore AM sessions by this time as well.   Another solid southwest swell is forecast for around Oct 22-25.   All in all, pretty solid month of surf, as it should be in October.   Cya in the water.

SWELL FROM EVERYWHERE - WEEKEND FORECAST

Our first pulse of northwest swell is winding down this am - swell is 4-6ft at 12-13 seconds from 295.   Also have a small southwest swell in the water - 2-3 at 14 from 205.   We have swell inbound from N and S this weekend.   South swell from Hurricane Sergio and another Gulf Swell set to roll in Saturday.   Sergio swell should show Saturday at select breaks.  Models are forecasting deepwater heights of 3-5ft at 19sec for Saturday night.   This might be a bit overdone, but we will wait and see as the swell starts rolling up the Coast.   Swell will stay solid on Sunday, 3-4 at 18 seconds.  In fact, expect the Sergio swell to stick around until around next Tuesday.   As for the N Pac swell(s) - we're going to have a lot of wind starting Saturday and that will really ramp up the wind swell (and drop water temps again).   Peak of that event should be Saturday night into Sunday 8-11ft (offshore waters), smaller nearshore.   In addition we will have a longer period west/northwest swell from the remnants of Typhoon Trami which went extratropical this past week and will send in a longer period swell at 3-5ft at 19 deepwater 300-305 on Saturday.   Sunday period will be down to 18 seconds and 16 seconds on Monday.   Winds will be the issue over the weekend and into next week as an inside slider is dropping down the State over the weekend which will ramp up the north to northwest winds strongly starting Saturday night.   We could see some offshore winds by next week at certain spots along the Coast, so keep an eye on it.   However, with all the swell sources this weekend and beyond, there should be plenty of spots holding waves and rideable.  Cya in the water.  Yay Fall!  

HURRICANE ROSA, N PAC TO GET BUSY, S PAC STAYING BUSY....

Interesting pattern taking shape offshore tonight with some possible rain coming into our region tomorrow and then again Mon/Tues.   No gully washers mind you, just a little shot here and there.   In addition to the active weather, Hurricane Rosa is churning off Baja and moving slowly north/northwest through the weekend with a decent chance we will see some swell from that system by Sunday (Bay Area), Monday/Tuesday (points further north).   If one believes the models, could actually see deepwater swell from Rosa late Sunday going 3ft plus at 14 seconds from a very steep 165.   Monday, swell forecast to build to 5ft at 15sec also at 165 (quite solid if this materializes) and then fading Tuesday at 3-3.5ft at 13-14 seconds from 165.   Due to the angle of approach only the best south facing spots will pick this swell up and much will just radiate by the California Coast.   Also keeping an eye on two storms in the N Pac over the weekend to see if any swell materializes for next week and from the S Pac two storm systems in play for perhaps some swell late next week or early the following.   Winds look pretty light through about next Wednesday.  Fall is here.   Cya in the water.  

HAPPY FALL - WEEKEND UPDATE

Today is the first full day of fall.   Small southwest swell is in 1.9ft @17 from 195.   Quick check of conditions show light winds and fog everywhere.   Swell to stick around tomorrow and then fade out and then it's back to a windswell regime for the foreseeable future.   No swell of interest from the North Pacific forecast in the coming week.   Still waiting for the machine to kick in.   Long term odds look better for late Sept into the first week of October if one can believe the models this far out.  So get what you can and best conditions will probably be found early over the next week.  Cya in the water.

WEEKEND FORECAST/SEPT 14

New southwest swell in this morning at 2-3 ft @18 from175.  Winds are lighter from the northwest than they've been.   Look for south swell to continue for the next few days with no real clean up with the winds (or fall offshores) - so AM sessions will be best.   Still watching for our first northwest swell of the season - nothing yet.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - SEPT 6

Small southwest swell started rolling in yesterday and continues this AM.   2.2@15 from 190.   This swell will slowly fade out tomorrow.   Wind swell remains in the water as well - 3-5ft at 6-8 seconds from 300 +.   No swell producing storms forecast in the N Pac yet, but there is activity and things look to perhaps improve mid to late next week as a series of stronger fronts get traction.  In the meantime - we have a run of southwest swell coming for this weekend.   First forerunners will come in late Saturday, 1-2ft at 20-21 sec.   Sunday, swell builds to 2.8 at 18 sec and will hold at that duration through Monday.   Swell will begin a slow fade by next Tuesday with period down to 14-15 sec.   Swell direction will be around 170-180 - so a touch steep.   Wind and fog remain the issue with no offshore winds forecast at this time.   Keep an eye on the winds, AM sessions probably the best right now until we start getting some fronts through the Pac Northwest into the Great Basin giving us a bigger hint of fall.   Cya in the water.  

SEPTEMBER!

Welcome to the 2018/19 surf season in Northern California.   Made it through another summer.   Going to look like summer for a while yet as we have strong northwest winds, dropping water temps again and lots of wind swell.   Wind swell will get larger towards Sunday so some spots that can pull in that energy and keep you out of the wind might be the call.   Not many of those exist around these parts, but there are a few.   Don't see much let up in winds through early next week and no ground swell on the horizon yet from the North Pacific.   Could see a small south swell starting around Monday - but feel like it might get beat down and lost under the more dominant NW flow.   Some small background hurricane swell from Miriam and Norman could dribble in over the weekend as well at south facing spots - but don't expect much above waist high.   Cya in the water and i'll be back to more regular reports now that it's September!  

SMELLS LIKE FALL.....

Rambling thru the Russian River Valley this week and the local trees are showing color.   Ocean has been smooth from Salmon Creek and points north.   Sept 1 is almost here.   If you're like me, you love this time of year in Nor Cal.   Nothing on the horizon yet, just small northwest swell for the next couple days - 3-5ft at 11 seconds.   Northwest winds will start to ramp up towards the weekend - especially offshore and we'll see a batch of windswell with short periods develop.    AM sessions might be best for winds.   Keeping an eye on the N Pac - it's most definitely getting active in the higher latitudes, just need some troughs to drop down and get some traction over the open waters.   It's coming......cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - SOUTH SWELL ABOUT TO HIT!

Good looking southwest swell on the way up the coast tonight - already showing in So Cal at 3ft - 3.8ft at 18-20 seconds!  For us this one should peak around 3ft to 3.3 ft at 18 seconds overnight - be quite solid Friday at 3ft plus at 15 seconds, same on Saturday and begin a slow fade into Sunday at 2.9 ft at 14 seconds.   Direction about 180 degrees.   Swell will fade further Monday and be gone Tuesday.   Get some and cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST/MID AUGUST....Watching the N Pac

This morning we have tropical swell in the water from ex Hurricane John.   Swell is 2.5ft at 12 sec from around 170, pretty steep angle but it will get it to the right spots.   Also have a very small west swell in the water - about 1.5 ft at 11 sec from 190.  That west swell is from a Gulf of Alaska low that was spinning off the Pac Northwest this week and is now moving inland.  There is another southwest swell due in tomorrow late and that swell will probably max around around 2ft @ 14-17 sec from 200.   Also watching the remnants of Tropical Storm Shanshan - which is moving up and east of North Japan which is then forecast to continue racing east pushing over the Dateline over this weekend and might give us some small west to northwest background swell later next week.   That's a sign of fall when extratropical storms start to recurve and track east.   Will continue to monitor that corridor for activity.   Otherwise, watching the N Pac for early signs of the season.   Winds still aren't ideal and are forecast to ramp up again from the northwest this weekend - but there will be spots to ride and early mornings likely best.   Cya in the water.

AUGUST UPON US, SEPTEMBER INCHING CLOSER......

July comes to an end with wind and meager wind swell.   That should be the case for the rest of the week and then some as high pressure remains in control.   Could see an increase in the wind swell size by week's end, but don't look for much clean to ride.  Northwest winds are going to remain strong especially over the outer waters and points north.   Water temps have cooled off again as well. Might see some action from the south towards the middle part of August.   Hang in there as September is only a month away and the start to the fall surfing season.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - SOUTH PACIFIC GETS BUSY

Solid storms have been underway northeast of New Zealand & Central Pacific.   The first in a series of swells is due in this weekend - the New Zealand swell, 2-3ft at 16-17 seconds from about 213 degrees hits on Saturday.   The Central Pacific swell, which is bigger and more powerful, will begin to overrun that swell late day Saturday with long period forerunners in the 19-20 sec range from 195 plus.  On Sunday, we will see 2 ft at 19-20, jumping to 2.5 at 21 seconds on Monday as the second pulse of this swell takes over the first.   Next Tuesday looks very good - deepwater 3.5 ft and bigger at 18-19 seconds - all 191-200 degrees - a very favorable swell angle for Nor Cal breaks.   That swell will probably hold well into the middle of next week.   Until this Saturday, it's mostly windswell and a fair amount of wind over the outer waters - could see a few light wind moments near shore - but don't expect much.  It does look like the winds will back off some for the weekend which is great news with the inbound swell.   Always a good thing for south swells moving up and around Pt Conception not having to battle strong northwest winds which can degrade size.   So get some work done because we're going to have a good run of southern hemi!  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST/JULY 15

South swell continues this morning, most readings show swell around 2.4ft - 3 ft @14 seconds from 180.   Water temps have warmed over the past week with the lack of northwest winds - ranging 55-59 north to south.   Look for fairly light winds to continue today and probably tomorrow - then winds will start to ramp up again from mid week on.   After this run of south swells ends tomorrow we will be back to windswell for the next week.   So get what you can.   Cya in the water.  

HELLO FABIO/UPDATED FORECAST 7--6

Swell from Hurricane Fabio is showing strongly this am - but it's a very selective swell given the steep angle of approach (165-175).   However, buoys showing 4-5 ft at 13-14 seconds.   Winds are from the north/northwest already this am and will get stronger over the weekend.   Water temps have come up with the south winds - back in the 54-56 range.   Swell from Fabio will stick around through tomorrow and then fade - so get it while you can.   After this, it's back to windswell for next week.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST/6-27 AND WEEKEND....

Swell this morning is primarily mid size wind swell at 7-8ft at 9-11 seconds from a steep 320.   Winds in the Bay Area are south to southwest.   From Pt Reyes north, winds are blowing strongly over the outer waters from the north/northwest.   Water temps remain on the chilly side - low 50s.   For the rest of the week, north winds will be the rule especially north of Pt Reyes, getting back up to gale force over the weekend.   Large wind swell will be the main source of waves with a background southwest swell from New Zealand showing primarily Sat/Sun at select spots that will focus the energy, but mostly lost under the more dominant flow from the north.   S Pac has gone to sleep beyond this week and nothing active in the tropics right now.   Wind swell is going to be the primary source of waves for the foreseeable future - but at least we have that.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 6-16

Wind swell remains the primary source of surf through the weekend.   Deep water is running anywhere from 7-11ft at 9-11 seconds, bigger north of the Bay Area.   From around 320 deg.   We will have a southerly wind/fog surge on Sunday which will briefly reverse the relentless northwest winds, bringing a bout of south winds.   We do have a small south swell due in starting late Saturday lasting until about Tuesday - 1.7ft to 2.5ft at 16 seconds from around 203 degrees.   Minimal really, and much of this energy will likely get throttled once the northwest winds pick back up Sunday night.       Still, might find something to ride at south facing breaks.   Maybe a bit more hope in the long term from the South Pacific, as the storm cycle looks to continue/pick up southeast of New Zealand which is a favorable swell corridor for us and has been a decent producing region so far this year.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 6-8 - SOUTH SWELL FOR WEEKEND

South swell from a storm that developed from 6-1 to 6-4 in the Central South Pacific is moving towards CA and will begin to show late Saturday with early forerunners at 1.9ft at 20 sec from around 200 degrees.   Main push happens Sunday and Monday as the deep water is forecast to jump to 3ft at 18 sec.   Period will start to drop Monday (16-17 sec) into Tuesday, fade on Wednesday.   All in all, looks like a decent run.   Our coast will remain shredded by northwest winds through the next week so south facing spots will be the call.   Maybe a few moments early mornings at beach breaks that like souths, but many of those are north to west facing and will be impacted by winds.   Cold water will remain.   Something to ride at least it would appear if the swell comes in as forecast.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - JUNE 4TH

Wind, lots of wind from the northwest and chunky windswell is what we have this week.   Water temps are dropping (47! at Pt Arena, 50 at Bodega, 51 at SF).   No change expected through the week as the summer time Pacific High pressure ridge is established.  I  am watching a decent storm in the Southern Pacific near New Zealand.   Storm is to churn for the first part of this week while moving north some (always good for southern storms to be generating wind/fetch while moving in our direction).   Swell from this will probably be a week out - so middle of next week.   Will keep an eye on progress and update later in the week.   Until then - get what you can if you can.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST/MEMORIAL DAY

Primarily windswell today and for the week ahead as the South Pac is asleep again and no swell producing systems really present in the North Pac.   Winds are light nearshore this AM in the Bay Area - blowing harder from the northwest the further north you go.    High pressure in control until mid week when a weak system briefly breaks down the ridge which will allow the pressure gradient to relax some and winds will ease.   However, no real change in terms of waves.   Probably something to ride at the beach breaks.   Summer in Nor Cal.  Keep your expectations low and you'll find something to ride.   Cya in the water.