SMELLS LIKE FALL.....

Rambling thru the Russian River Valley this week and the local trees are showing color.   Ocean has been smooth from Salmon Creek and points north.   Sept 1 is almost here.   If you're like me, you love this time of year in Nor Cal.   Nothing on the horizon yet, just small northwest swell for the next couple days - 3-5ft at 11 seconds.   Northwest winds will start to ramp up towards the weekend - especially offshore and we'll see a batch of windswell with short periods develop.    AM sessions might be best for winds.   Keeping an eye on the N Pac - it's most definitely getting active in the higher latitudes, just need some troughs to drop down and get some traction over the open waters.   It's coming......cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - SOUTH SWELL ABOUT TO HIT!

Good looking southwest swell on the way up the coast tonight - already showing in So Cal at 3ft - 3.8ft at 18-20 seconds!  For us this one should peak around 3ft to 3.3 ft at 18 seconds overnight - be quite solid Friday at 3ft plus at 15 seconds, same on Saturday and begin a slow fade into Sunday at 2.9 ft at 14 seconds.   Direction about 180 degrees.   Swell will fade further Monday and be gone Tuesday.   Get some and cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST/MID AUGUST....Watching the N Pac

This morning we have tropical swell in the water from ex Hurricane John.   Swell is 2.5ft at 12 sec from around 170, pretty steep angle but it will get it to the right spots.   Also have a very small west swell in the water - about 1.5 ft at 11 sec from 190.  That west swell is from a Gulf of Alaska low that was spinning off the Pac Northwest this week and is now moving inland.  There is another southwest swell due in tomorrow late and that swell will probably max around around 2ft @ 14-17 sec from 200.   Also watching the remnants of Tropical Storm Shanshan - which is moving up and east of North Japan which is then forecast to continue racing east pushing over the Dateline over this weekend and might give us some small west to northwest background swell later next week.   That's a sign of fall when extratropical storms start to recurve and track east.   Will continue to monitor that corridor for activity.   Otherwise, watching the N Pac for early signs of the season.   Winds still aren't ideal and are forecast to ramp up again from the northwest this weekend - but there will be spots to ride and early mornings likely best.   Cya in the water.

AUGUST UPON US, SEPTEMBER INCHING CLOSER......

July comes to an end with wind and meager wind swell.   That should be the case for the rest of the week and then some as high pressure remains in control.   Could see an increase in the wind swell size by week's end, but don't look for much clean to ride.  Northwest winds are going to remain strong especially over the outer waters and points north.   Water temps have cooled off again as well. Might see some action from the south towards the middle part of August.   Hang in there as September is only a month away and the start to the fall surfing season.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - SOUTH PACIFIC GETS BUSY

Solid storms have been underway northeast of New Zealand & Central Pacific.   The first in a series of swells is due in this weekend - the New Zealand swell, 2-3ft at 16-17 seconds from about 213 degrees hits on Saturday.   The Central Pacific swell, which is bigger and more powerful, will begin to overrun that swell late day Saturday with long period forerunners in the 19-20 sec range from 195 plus.  On Sunday, we will see 2 ft at 19-20, jumping to 2.5 at 21 seconds on Monday as the second pulse of this swell takes over the first.   Next Tuesday looks very good - deepwater 3.5 ft and bigger at 18-19 seconds - all 191-200 degrees - a very favorable swell angle for Nor Cal breaks.   That swell will probably hold well into the middle of next week.   Until this Saturday, it's mostly windswell and a fair amount of wind over the outer waters - could see a few light wind moments near shore - but don't expect much.  It does look like the winds will back off some for the weekend which is great news with the inbound swell.   Always a good thing for south swells moving up and around Pt Conception not having to battle strong northwest winds which can degrade size.   So get some work done because we're going to have a good run of southern hemi!  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST/JULY 15

South swell continues this morning, most readings show swell around 2.4ft - 3 ft @14 seconds from 180.   Water temps have warmed over the past week with the lack of northwest winds - ranging 55-59 north to south.   Look for fairly light winds to continue today and probably tomorrow - then winds will start to ramp up again from mid week on.   After this run of south swells ends tomorrow we will be back to windswell for the next week.   So get what you can.   Cya in the water.  

HELLO FABIO/UPDATED FORECAST 7--6

Swell from Hurricane Fabio is showing strongly this am - but it's a very selective swell given the steep angle of approach (165-175).   However, buoys showing 4-5 ft at 13-14 seconds.   Winds are from the north/northwest already this am and will get stronger over the weekend.   Water temps have come up with the south winds - back in the 54-56 range.   Swell from Fabio will stick around through tomorrow and then fade - so get it while you can.   After this, it's back to windswell for next week.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST/6-27 AND WEEKEND....

Swell this morning is primarily mid size wind swell at 7-8ft at 9-11 seconds from a steep 320.   Winds in the Bay Area are south to southwest.   From Pt Reyes north, winds are blowing strongly over the outer waters from the north/northwest.   Water temps remain on the chilly side - low 50s.   For the rest of the week, north winds will be the rule especially north of Pt Reyes, getting back up to gale force over the weekend.   Large wind swell will be the main source of waves with a background southwest swell from New Zealand showing primarily Sat/Sun at select spots that will focus the energy, but mostly lost under the more dominant flow from the north.   S Pac has gone to sleep beyond this week and nothing active in the tropics right now.   Wind swell is going to be the primary source of waves for the foreseeable future - but at least we have that.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 6-16

Wind swell remains the primary source of surf through the weekend.   Deep water is running anywhere from 7-11ft at 9-11 seconds, bigger north of the Bay Area.   From around 320 deg.   We will have a southerly wind/fog surge on Sunday which will briefly reverse the relentless northwest winds, bringing a bout of south winds.   We do have a small south swell due in starting late Saturday lasting until about Tuesday - 1.7ft to 2.5ft at 16 seconds from around 203 degrees.   Minimal really, and much of this energy will likely get throttled once the northwest winds pick back up Sunday night.       Still, might find something to ride at south facing breaks.   Maybe a bit more hope in the long term from the South Pacific, as the storm cycle looks to continue/pick up southeast of New Zealand which is a favorable swell corridor for us and has been a decent producing region so far this year.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 6-8 - SOUTH SWELL FOR WEEKEND

South swell from a storm that developed from 6-1 to 6-4 in the Central South Pacific is moving towards CA and will begin to show late Saturday with early forerunners at 1.9ft at 20 sec from around 200 degrees.   Main push happens Sunday and Monday as the deep water is forecast to jump to 3ft at 18 sec.   Period will start to drop Monday (16-17 sec) into Tuesday, fade on Wednesday.   All in all, looks like a decent run.   Our coast will remain shredded by northwest winds through the next week so south facing spots will be the call.   Maybe a few moments early mornings at beach breaks that like souths, but many of those are north to west facing and will be impacted by winds.   Cold water will remain.   Something to ride at least it would appear if the swell comes in as forecast.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - JUNE 4TH

Wind, lots of wind from the northwest and chunky windswell is what we have this week.   Water temps are dropping (47! at Pt Arena, 50 at Bodega, 51 at SF).   No change expected through the week as the summer time Pacific High pressure ridge is established.  I  am watching a decent storm in the Southern Pacific near New Zealand.   Storm is to churn for the first part of this week while moving north some (always good for southern storms to be generating wind/fetch while moving in our direction).   Swell from this will probably be a week out - so middle of next week.   Will keep an eye on progress and update later in the week.   Until then - get what you can if you can.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST/MEMORIAL DAY

Primarily windswell today and for the week ahead as the South Pac is asleep again and no swell producing systems really present in the North Pac.   Winds are light nearshore this AM in the Bay Area - blowing harder from the northwest the further north you go.    High pressure in control until mid week when a weak system briefly breaks down the ridge which will allow the pressure gradient to relax some and winds will ease.   However, no real change in terms of waves.   Probably something to ride at the beach breaks.   Summer in Nor Cal.  Keep your expectations low and you'll find something to ride.   Cya in the water.

LARGER SW SWELL THIS COMING WEEK, LESS WIND...

Early Sunday features howling northwest winds down the entire coast of CA.  The worst batch is between Pt Reyes and Pt Arena.   Water temps responding accordingly now at 50 at SF Buoy and 49 most points further north.   Dominant energy is windswell with a fading southwest swell and small Gulf swell.  Eyes to the south for the coming week as a decent southwest swell train is moving north, courtesy of a very strong low pressure system near New Zealand a week back.   Forerunners Monday night - 2ft @21 sec.  Builds Tuesday pushing 3.3ft @18-19s by late afternoon.  Wednesday might be the thickest day at 3.8ft @17s with residual energy left for Thursday at 3.7@15-16sec.   Direction 185-195 degrees.  By mid week the pressure gradient should relax and winds will actually reverse south by Wednesday, very light south, so could have some decent conditions for the mornings in particular.   Get it while you can because there isn't anything yet forecast behind this swell.   The North Pacific has officially gone to sleep for the summer, but at least we're off to a decent start for the Southern Hemisphere.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 5-11/SOUTHWEST SWELLS NEXT WEEK

Better run of southwest swells looks to start next week and continue for a while as storm activity in the South Pacific region has picked up over the past week.   Until then, we're going to get a serious dose of northwest winds over the next 36 hours - gale force to storm force far north, a touch less around the Bay Area.   We do have a mid period northwest swell in the water and large short period windswell from the ongoing winds in the outer waters.   The windswell is 10ft plus at 11 seconds from 320.   The smaller northwest is running 4-5ft at 12 seconds but likely undetected due to the more dominant windswell.   Due to all the wind and the wind forecast - water temps are dropping fast due to the upwelling.   SF Buoy around 49.  Pt Arena Buoy at 48!   Winds will blow strong until we get a southerly surge Sunday, when direction will shift to the south at about 5-15kts.   First southwest swell forerunners will likely show up late Sunday/Monday - 2-3 ft at 17 from 190.   Second swell will follow during the week with a better angle 213-220 also around 3ft at 18 sec.   That swell should continue through next Thursday.  North Pacific is going to sleep for the summer - jet stream is retreating to the north and North Pacific High is asserting it's dominance.   La Nina is about gone and hopefully this will equal a more favorable configuration for storm production in the Pacific next Fall.  Finally, have board bags, leashes, fins and a few wetsuits available at my garage sale this weekend (see post below) both boards were sold this week and no longer available.   Cya in the water.

WASABI GARAGE SALE/UPDATED FORECAST

Mothers Day Weekend we're having a garage/moving sale at 102 Redwood Drive, Woodacre, CA.   For surfers, board bags, some wetsuits, gear, couple boards for sale:  9.6 Ashley Lloyd log and a 7.4 Mitsven single fin.   Bunch of backpacks, clothes etc.   For the mom's and girlfriends, plenty of home stuff.  Starts next Friday May 11th (10am) and runs Saturday, Sunday both days 9-5pm.

Now for the forecast - well, it's May.   Actually the winds don't look horrible the next five days - just not much swell around from either the north or south.   Basically looking for small windswell through the period - at around 4ft 10 seconds.   Might be an uptick in winds mid week - but check it each AM - beach breaks will probably be biggest and early morning sessions might provide a few opportunities.

I'm moving to the far north coast early June - however I  will continue my forecast updates for the region.   Cya in the water.

NOW IT'S SPRING, UPDATED FORECAST 4-21

That should be a wrap on the rain for the season.   High pressure beginning to take control and the jet stream is retreating to the north.   Still some lows spinning out in the N Pac, so we're not done with winter swells just yet - but they're becoming smaller and less frequent which is normal.   Today we have a mix of swells in the water.    Northwest Gulf swell is showing at 6-8 ft from 13-14 seconds from around 300deg. The bigger swell north of Bodega Bay.   Windswell in the water, 4-5 ft at 7-9 seconds.   Small south swell is building - 1.4 ft at 14 sec from 205.  Winds are already blowing northwest over the outer waters. bit lighter for the moment near shore - but it's not very clean unless you go to breaks out of the wind.  Look for winds to continue through about Tuesday when the high pressure pattern relaxes some and a weak low pressure system passes to our north.   This will actually turn winds light south about Wednesday - so those two days next week - Tues/Wed - might be the cleanest coming up - but mostly in the AM.  South swell forecast to build, however think most of the energy will get lost in the more dominant northwest swells and the northwest wind offshore will shred the size some as it makes it way around Pt Conception.   Places that pick up the south and work well on northwest winds might have some fun waves.  Moderate period/size northwest swell to continue through about mid week.   South swell will be gone then as well.   La Nina is fading fast so that's a wrap on her - unlikely to return for a third winter next year.   It will be interesting what pattern sets up for the coming year and into the next season.   Cya in the water.

BACK TO WINTER/UPDATED FORECAST

Potent storm system just offshore today - will arrive overnight and bring rain through Saturday.   South winds will ramp up and stay elevated.   There is a nice southwest swell in the water today - about 2-3ft at 15-17 seconds.   That will hang around through tomorrow and then fade out into Saturday.   Meanwhile, larger northwest swell will build in, actually probably more west than northwest.   Friday look for that swell to be around 7ft @11 seconds, building Saturday to 9-12ft and Sunday a touch bigger 10-12ft.  Period will stay 11-12 seconds as it's coming from this storm as it nears the CA/OR/WA coasts.   I don't see an improvement in winds until Monday.  That said, plenty of swell on tap, rain and wind - but there are nooks and crannies up and down the coast that will hold waves.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - LOOKS LIKE SPRING....

One more series of storms to get through this weekend then high pressure takes over with northwest winds forecast - we all know what that means.   For the next couple days, swell looks to build into the 8-10 ft range, with 12 second periods and increase a bit in size and period Sat/Sun.   SW winds today turning W overnight turning to light NW Saturday morning and then stronger NW beyond.  Swell will begin to fade Sunday night and then next week it just looks like your garden variety northwest windswell with winds.   Nothing on the southern hemi charts yet down under, however the models are hinting a possible large storm forming middle of next week - so that might give us some action two weeks out.   Get what you can this weekend because it's slim pickings beyond.   Cya in the water.

MARCH!

March.   Traditional end of our winter season and the beginning of northwest winds and cold water.   Well we've had the cold water for 2-3 weeks now - winds actually not that bad right now and the forecast for this week isn't the worst i've seen for the start to March.   We have another storm system out in the Pacific which is due to come ashore Wednesday through Friday (earlier far north).   High pressure is getting pumped up today and tomorrow in advance of that front with northeast to east winds forecast due to the direction of wind flow.   By Tuesday night - south winds will ramp up and will remain strong through Wednesday, easing some Thursday (but still southwest) and then light west by Friday.   Swell looks to remain fairly mid size through the week - 4-6ft 12-15 second periods.    Pattern looks to remain active as go through Mid March - so perhaps we will see some decent swells and variable wind.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 2-24/NW WIND SHRED FEST/COLD WATER

It's almost March, but with La Nina raging - feels and looks like Spring.   Water temps continue to drop with the onslaught of northwest winds - 49f at SF 47.7 at Pt Arena.   It's cold.   Air temps remain cold as we're locked in a trough pattern with systems sweeping down from BC.  Slight chance of rain far north today - better chance of rain everywhere by Monday and finally some decent precipitation forecast for late next week as the Polar Low over Hudson Bay has moved East (this has been the blocker for the past month or so) which will allow more moderate Pacific air and storms to finally come ashore.   Probably too late to make up any real deficit at this point - as most of CA is only 50% or below of average - but we will take what we get.   Surf wise - there is a west swell running - about 6ft at 15 sec - but the problem is it's getting trashed by the northwest winds and windswell running down the coast - which is about 100miles wide from the coast offshore.  So you might see some bigger pulses now and then if you're surfing at a south facing break today - but it's getting lost under the more dominant windswell energy.   NO let up in winds through next week - swell will remain fairly moderate - probably 6-9ft.   March 1st is the end of the traditional "good" surf season up here - but will start keeping an eye on the southern hemisphere for some early season action.   Cya in the water.