Waves - Rare off season swell

Buoys are 10-14 ft at 12-14 seconds from 290 plus this am - quite a surprise as this swell came in much bigger than models indicated a week ago.  Mixing in with a decent southwest swell (for around these parts) - so you might find something to ride today if you know where to look.  Winds not ideal and won't be for most spots.  Pushing into July - only two months to go until Fall.  The North Pacific has been far more active than usual this summer - which you can attribute to the warming Pacific.  Hopefully this trend continues for the next 45-60 days which will give us a pretty good indication of how strong this potential El Nino event is actually going to be.  Cya in the water.

JUNE

Blah.  That's all I can say about June right now.  If you have the time - travel someplace warm.  Talk to you in July.

Hurricane Amanda - Happy Memorial Day

Sunday morning.  The first hurricane of the season is firing up in the East Pacific.  Hurricane Amanda is the second strongest system on record (behind Adolph in 2011) with sustained winds at 140kts.  Could be a harbinger of things to come as El Nino continues to show signs of intensification in the Pacific Basin with warm water throughout.  The warm water exception of course is along our coast - where northwest winds have been howling offshore and the water is a balmy 47-50 degrees from SF north.  As for surf - north windswell and background sw swell the rule for the weekend.  Look for a stronger pulse of sw swell to come in next week.  Winds will remain from the northwest and you'll have to pick and choose your sessions.  I'll continue to provide spotty surf forecasts and updates on El Nino through the end of August.  Starting September 1, I will return to more regular updates.  Cya in the water.

MAY

Hope you got some surf this past week - we certainly had some nice conditions for late April.  Winds are cranking back up again and we will continue to see small/medium sized northwest swell and windswell through the period.  Conditions will be cleanest at breaks sheltered from the wind.  Nothing that exciting from the southern hemi - just background swell for the coming week.  Small chance of rain Monday, but primarily for the North Bay.  Cya in the water.

MID APRIL UPDATE

Spring.  Mostly onshore winds and fog already the rule, sheltered spots will be the most favorable for riding waves - but you'll always find windows at other breaks as high pressure ebbs and flows around the region.  We do have a strong late season storm developing in the Gulf of Alaska and that will send a good size swell train our way late Sunday into Monday/Tuesday.  Swell will peak Monday with deep water surf heights forecast in the 6-10ft range - from 280-310.  Good for double overhead ++ surf at north facing breaks.  Chance of rain Monday and Tuesday.  No real clean wind forecast for the next week.  WNW winds the rule.  There's a lot of talk about El Nino coming - even the tools in the main stream are talking about a Super Nino - but you have to discount what they say since they know very little about weather.  That said - water temps are much warmer across the Pacific Basin.  We certainly appear to be transitioning to an El Nino pattern.  The next two months will be critical to give us an indication of just how strong this will be.  If we do push into an El Nino - looking for stronger south swells, more activity in the East Pacific/Mexico for hurricanes and TS's.  Then, next Fall, we would likely see an increase in North/West Pacific storm/swell activity.  It would be nice to have a strong summer of south swells - just have to wait and see what develops.  Cya in the water.

APRIL -

Orion setting early in the western sky is always a sign the seasons are changing.  It's April, and by all accounts by now we're usually strafed by northwest winds and cold water - but so far this spring, knock wood, water temps aren't too bad.  And we've been blessed with small, but fairly consistent swells from the Gulf of Alaska.  That should continue through the weekend.  We also have a small run of back to back southwest swells from down under as the South Pacific begins to stir.  Weak storm tonight will briefly shift winds to the south and then strong to the northwest late Friday and Saturday before easing up early next week.  Look for deepwater swell from 270-305 at 4-7 ft through next Tuesday.  Might see light AM winds for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  Stuff to ride, keep an eye on the winds and know your spots.  Southwest swell will be from 190-220 through next Thursday.  Cya in the water.

Mid March - Swell to continue

Solid WNW swell in the water today through early week.  Deepwater 8-12 ft at 14-17 sec from 290-300.  Swell will peak overnight and be quite solid tomorrow.  Look for decent size surf most of the week - just keep an eye on the winds.  Mostly N to NW wind flow predicted.  Cya in the water.

March

March 1 is usually the official end to the Fall/Winter season in Nor Cal as conditions and the weather transition over to something a bit less desirable  - like cold water and northwest winds.  This week - we will have plenty of overhead swell right through next weekend - but because of ongoing storms most spots will be torn up due to south or southwest winds.  Later in the week - winds will switch to northwest - probably Thursday.  So, know your spots and keep an eye on the winds and you'll find something to ride.  Reports will be a bit less frequent as we move into Spring - but i will keep an eye on things and provide updates as needed.  Cya in the water.

Lighter winds for the weekend - storms next week to close February

Winds are easing up and offshore at area beaches this morning.  Swell is still decent size  7-8 ft 11-12 seconds from 285 plus.  Swell will fade throughout the day. Saturday will featuring smaller surf in the morning and then an increase in size as a new WNW swell moves in.  This swell will stick around Sunday - 3-5ft deepwater.  Should see good morning/offshore winds Saturday and Sunday.  Next week the storm door opens again as a series of strong systems will impact the region from Wednesday through the following weekend bringing rain and strong south winds.  When it's all done we will be into the month of March and then the northwest wind machine will start to ramp up.   So get on it.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast - Northwest Winds

Northwest winds will be the rule this week as high pressure sets up.  There will be plenty of swell in the water at times, but need to find protection from the winds.  Models hint at another wet pattern change mid next week through the end of the month with rain/storms.  Then it will be March and we know what happens around here then.  Get what you can as i expect we're going to have a very windy spring around these parts.  Cya in the water.

Rain, mix of swells and wind to continue through the week

Next storm system due in tomorrow afternoon into Thursday.  Look for northwest winds changing over to south/southwest.  Dry on Friday, more rain Saturday and Sunday.  Nothing is really going to be very clean for the next 4-5 days - there will be swell from different sources - finding someplace clean to ride will be the key.  We need the rain so let it be so.   Keep an eye on the winds and buoys and you'll find some windows to ride.  Cya in the water.

Pattern to remain unsettled

Strong, compact storm dropped down along the coast yesterday bringing much needed rain to most of the area and higher amounts than forecast.  NE winds this morning - swell is 8-10ft with mixed periods from several sources.  We will remain in a more normal winter pattern this week - with more rain and cold temps forecast Wednesday and Thursday and then models forecast a very wet shift in the jet stream for next weekend.  Surf will stay on the smaller side most of the week - winds will be highly variable depending on the day.  Best bet is check it each morning and see if you can get some.  Cya in the water.

Winter returns (briefly) and conditions go south

Back to back weak storm systems moved through our region bringing some measurable rain and northwest winds.  What a distant memory now all those fine days earlier this month and in December yeah?  Don't look for things to improve much, northwest winds today and tomorrow.  On Sunday, another low pressure system will drop south along the coast bringing a threat of rain and light south winds.  Sunday morning might be ok - but far from super clean.  Small surf looks the rule with a bump up Sunday and Monday as a new WNW swell comes in.  Best breaks during these days might be a few feet overhead with the sets.  HIgh pressure builds back in next week, but not as strong as the drought high pressure of the best few months - models hint and another storm next weekend.  Winds next week look northwest - maybe some clean mornings.  More on that after the weekend.  Cya in the water.

Solid surf continues, pattern change in the weather next week

Solid deep water swell continues today - 5-8 ft from 275 + .  Winds are generally light right now as high clouds move overhead from a weak storm system moving in from the south.  Look for generally elevated surf through next Thursday - but our long run of offshore days looks like it will come to an end next week as a strong storm moves in from the Pacific and the blocking ridge of high pressure leaves the region - bringing us badly needed rain.  Right now rain could begin in the North Bay as early as Wednesday night and stick around through Friday.  You can look for south/southwest winds to pick up those days and then northwest blow behind the front.  Until then, plenty of surf on tap just check the winds.  Cya in the water.

Large swell to impact coast late Thursday

Buoys north of Hawaii show the story - 26ft at 17 seconds.  The Islands will be massive later today.  Large surf continues for us and will get much bigger over the next few days as the swell from a massive low pressure circulation (a storm filling almost the entire North Pacific) begins to show late Thursday with 6-8 ft deepwater at 25 seconds.  Swell to increase Friday with long periods and size - 10-14 ft at 18 seconds - maxing out on Saturday at 15-18ft.  Not quite the mega swell models were forecasting a week or so ago - but should be the biggest surf we've seen this winter at most north facing/big water breaks.  Winds look tricky the next few days as an inside slider storm barrels into the Great Basin, then retrogrades towards the CA Coast.  This is going to trigger a strong southerly wind surge late Thursday into Friday.  Then we go back to a north to northwest wind event for the weekend.  Winds over the weekend may very well turn offshore for the mornings.  Could see some drizzle Thursday/Friday from this system - but not much precip expected.  CA remains locked under high pressure through the end of January.  Large storms west of the Dateline will continue to generate swell trains that impact the region.  But no weather will make it past Hawaii.  Cya in the water.

One more small fun day, then a 50 year swell???

Amazing winter conditions continue - offshore winds, day after day of rideable waves.  Friday will see the smallest day of surf for the next 7-10 - with shoulder to head high surf at north facing breaks.  A very potent run of storms north of Hawaii is kicking up swell that will begin to impact our region later in the day on Saturday and continue through all of next week.  Could see potentially extremely large surf around Jan 24-25 if conditions behave as models forecast.  So look for increasing surf late Saturday from 270-300 with double overhead sets expected by sunset.  Larger swell Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday - in the 10-15ft range Sunday and then 8-12 ft through the week.  If the mega swell comes in it will show late next Thursday - be full force Friday with deepwater swell heights forecast at 20-30ft!!  This would be one for the ages if it materializes.  **I still think most of the models are too hot on this swell - but it's worth noting they've been pretty consistent for over a week now forecasting extremely large waves.  Should have a better handle on things by the middle of next week.  No end in sight to the offshore winds as summer time high pressure has the region in full lock down from rain and storms.  I can't emphasize enough how dire things are now for California.  We're breaking all sorts of records for lack of rainfall, snowfall, high temps and dry conditions and in many ways could be looking at a drought event never experienced.  So do you part - conserve water and tell family, friends, people you work with to do the same.  It could make a huge difference for all of us next summer.  Enjoy the surf, cya in the water.

Large swell to impact coast tonight and tomorrow….

Very powerful winter storm in the northeast Gulf of AK - has whipped up a large swell train which will start to impact the coast tonight and last through Sunday afternoon.  Oregon Coastal buoys are starting to show deepwater in the 18ft range - expect 14-18ft deepwater swell north of Pt Reyes, 12-14ft to the south - with bigger sets and a bit unruly at times.  Period will be 15-16 seconds - angle 300 +.  Winds are going to be northwest tonight and north tomorrow.  Probably won't be very clean at anything west/north facing.  Look for elevated surf levels through most of next week with good conditions as wind turn offshore starting Monday and look to hold through next Thursday.  What little rain we managed to squeeze out today is it for us until the end of January.  Dry weather will dominate the region.  Great for surfers, bad if you're a fern.  Cya in the water.

Our long run of clean days over for now…..

Well, it had to happen, onshore winds have returned after what seems like a month of offshore and clean days.  Don't get too depressed, because it looks like we could see warm temps and offshore winds return next week - but in the short term - swell inbound with northwest winds.  Long period swell will start to build in later tonight (295 to 305) peaking over the weekend.  Looking for deepwater heights in the 6-10ft range from Friday to Sunday.  But winds will be an issue today, Thursday, Friday and Saturday, possibly cleaning up for light morning winds on Sunday.  Best chance of rain will occur Saturday as the tail end of a weather system brushes Nor Cal.  Beyond that, high pressure regains control and no rain is forecast through Jan 20th.  We're almost halfway through our rainy season now and most of the State finds itself in a severe water deficit.  Most areas 5-10% of normal.  We all need to conserve water and anyone reading this blog should tell a friend or two they know.  Most people aren't in tune with the weather like surfers and just think we're having a nice winter.  Well the sun is shining and it's all wonderful, but come July we will all be lucky to get a one minute shower.  Do your part and watch your water use.  Until then, plenty of swell, keep an eye on the winds if you know the coast you'll find spots to ride even during northwest wind events.  Cya in the water.

Week Ahead

Fun size surf continues with very clean conditions.  New WNW swell will fill in late today and waves should be a couple feet overhead on Tuesday at winter breaks.  Smaller Wednesday, swell comes back up late Thursday into Friday and next weekend should feature large surf with 8-12ft of deepwater forecast from a storm whipping up a swell train in the West Pacific.   Winds look good through about Wednesday then we might see an increase in northwest wind flow through the weekend as a few systems brush past us to the north and the high pressure gradient increases down the coast.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Great run of good surf will continue for the rest of the holiday week.  A touch smaller than our past two swell events, but still head to overhead surf at north facing/winter breaks through Sunday.  Winds look decent as well.

Note - NOR CAL Buoy link appears to be offline - i'm sure the fine people in La Jolla will fix when they get back from holiday.

Cya in the water and Happy New Year.