Holiday Forecast

Pretty epic week of surf ahead to enjoy the holidays.  Offshore winds, back to back swells right through next Sunday.  Our current swell will wind down Tuesday, but still feature overhead waves at north facing breaks.  Further reduction on Wednesday, fun size - and then things go large again late Thursday  to Sunday.  Biggest days looks like next Friday/Saturday/Sunday - with 6-12ft of deepwater swell (285 to 305 deg) on tap.  The late week swell will feature some lulls like our present swell, however the storm that created this next event was closer and stronger than the previous storm, so you can expect a bit more activity and strong pulses of sets when they roll ashore.  Happy Holidays to everyone.  Cya in the water.

She's Gonna Blow & More Swell On The Way

Calm to slight northwest winds this morning.  Two storm systems - one to the south and one to our north will influence the region over the next 48 hrs.  Additionally, a very strong low pressure system west of Hawaii is kicking up a long period powerful swell that will come in this weekend.  Winds will ramp up late tonight into Thursday - Gale Warnings posted along with High Wind Warnings in the North Bay.  Expect 25-45kt winds with gusts as high as 60kt over our outer waters.  No rain with either system, just crazy pressure gradients that will force winds from high in the atmosphere to mix down to the surface.  As for that weekend event - look for building swell Saturday, biggest late - 6-10ft deepwater (275 - 295), bigger Sunday - 8-12ft deepwater, fading some Monday 6-10ft deepwater - and then a steady fade into next week.  May see lighter winds all weekend - especially mornings.  NO rain in the forecast, in fact it looks like 2013 will end up as the driest year on record - dating back to the 1850s.  We are in a world of shit when it comes to water - so do your part now and start conserving.  No indication this high pressure ridge is going to leave us for the winter.  cya in the water.

BOOM

OCEAN BEACH YESTERDAY…...

Weekend forecast, Solid Swell on Monday

Great conditions on tap with offshore winds the next few days.   Solid swell today and tomorrow - deepwater 5-8 ft - then much larger surf on Monday with deepwater 10-15ft.  Big wave spots will see surf in the 18-20ft range on Monday.  Cya in the water.

New West Swell, Cold Temps

New West swell will fill in Monday and stick around through Tuesday.  Look for head to slightly overhead waves at the best facing breaks.  Offshore winds most of this week - maybe an afternoon sea breeze of sorts.  Fun size surf really through Friday.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast - Old Man Winter To Visit

Swell still 5.5ft at 12 from 270+ - winds coming up a bit and will really start to blow from the north and northwest tomorrow as a very cold system drops south out of British Columbia.  Could see freezing temps at the Coast by Thursday/Friday morning - and very cold temps in the 20s inland.  No rain to speak of - however models are hinting at that possibility for next weekend and beyond.  Swell wise this week - mix of north and northwest windswell will be the rule really - and winds are going to probably make a mess of it from Tuesday on.  Sheltered spots will probably be best, but also small given the short period nature of the swells on tap.  So, good week to get back to work.  Keep an eye on the winds and swell, know your spots and you might find something to ride.  ***Side note - NOAA released it's buoy recovery and repair list for 2014 and none of the CA Buoys that are out - are on the list to be repaired and redeployed.  Thanks NOAA.  Papa and CA will remain off the grid for the season.  Cya in the water.

Powerful Swell for Thanksgiving

 Super clean conditions today with small waves.  That will change quickly tomorrow night as a strong west (265-295) swell fills in rapidly.  Thanksgiving will dawn with booming conditions - deepwater 8-10ft ++ with long periods.  Unlike most of the swell events so far this season - this has quite a bit of westerly angle - so breaks that favor big west/northwest swells will be rocking.  Winds look really good   for Thursday and Friday.  Might even see decent winds for Saturday.  By Sunday, nw winds may ramp up some.  Swell right through Sunday as we get a reinforcing shot of waves for Sat/Sun.  Plenty to ride, cya in the water.

Very small surf for the weekend….

Surf will be small to flat this weekend depending on your location.  N Pac swell machine has gone to sleep and all we really have is northerly windswell from 325 plus.  Really the story of our season so far - extreme angle smaller swells as the Eastern part of the North Pacific has been the most active.  So grab a log or go golf.  Things may improve early next week - but just by a touch.  Cya in the water.

Rain to return along with southerly winds….

Good size storm system organizing about 700 miles offshore this morning will bring badly needed rain to most of central and northern California over the next 3-4 days.  Heaviest amounts north of SF but looks like everyone will get in on the action starting late tonight in Sonoma County.  Swell wise, doesn't look to hot this week - going to be mostly windswell and smaller north swell right through next Saturday.  Might be some windows in between bands of rain and wind - but this might be a good week to get some work done.  After this week's rain event high pressure will build back in which will give us an extended period of dry weather thru Thanksgiving. Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Dense fog has returned to the region as high pressure clamps down overhead.  There are a few storm systems diving into the Great Basin over the next couple days and that will ramp up the north winds which should scour out the fog.  It will also create generally sloppy conditions with short period windswell forecast to pick up and last through Saturday morning.  Not sure how clean it's going to be anywhere - check the winds in the mornings.  Cya in the water.

HIgh and dry

Meager storm tried to bring badly needed rain to the region overnight - but lost the battle.  HIgh pressure regains control and looks to stick around for the next two weeks.  We're currently enjoying the driest calendar year on record (going back to 1850).  Fun size surf will remain all week - and we should see periods of offshore winds/good morning conditions through the weekend and probably into next week as well.  Might see stronger winds in the afternoon hours - but mornings should be good.  Cya in the water and do what you can to conserve water.

Weekend Forecast

Fun size wnw swell tomorrow - waist to head high - with slightly overhead waves at best north facing breaks.  Wind should be pretty decent most of the day - then start to pick up tomorrow night.  New swell will build in late and plus on Sunday with deepwater in the 4-7ft range.  Keep an eye on winds Sunday, may turn south as an approaching cold front comes in late Sunday.  Chance of rain Monday night into Tuesday - then high pressure builds back in which should lead to nice conditions.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

New long period northwest swell showing far northern buoys - 8-9 ft 20 seconds.  Swell will top out Tuesday and Wednesday with well overhead to double overhead waves likely at north facing breaks.  Looks like we'll have offshore/light ne winds the next two mornings for sure - with light afternoon winds.  Surf to fade just a bit Thursday and Friday - but still feature overhead surf at west/north facing breaks.  Global weather models hinting at a major pattern change next week with the storm door opening.  A bit too far out right now to give much weight to the forecast - but something to monitor.  Next two mornings should be good for those who like the big stuff.  Cya in the water.

Next Three Mornings...

Light Am winds the next three days - with very cold temps early Wednesday morning in the North Bay with low to mid 30s.  Overlapping small northwest swells will keep surf in the fun size.  Winds come up again late week - as will the swell - as another cold front pushing to our north.  No rain in forecast for SF and parts north.  Not digging the high pressure ridge establishing itself - doesn't bode well for early season rains and sand bar development at spots that like weather.  We'll see what unfolds.  Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Fun size mix of southwest and northwest swells on tap.  Head high sets at top spots.  Winds will be lightest in the mornings - may see a bit more afternoon sea breeze each day.   Cya in the water.

Larger Long Period Swell Early Next Week....

Small surf prevails - with fog back at the coast.  Things should remain on the small side until late Sunday night when early forerunners of the swell from former Typhoon Wipha start to show - deepwater 4-6ft at 20-23 seconds.  By mid day Monday, look for 6-8 ft at 18-20 seconds and during the peak of this event we might see larger sets in the 10-15ft range.  Swell angle 309 deg. A few things about this forecast.  First, this storm developed quite far from Northern CA.  Second, the main life cycle of this storm has been in the very far northern latitudes of the N Pac - not ideal for swell angle into N Cal.  So expect long lulls, but when the energy does come - especially during the peak of the event and peak tides - expect things to pack a good punch.  Wind forecast not ideal for early next week - NOAA still saying nw winds each day over the coastal waters - but they are forecast to stay light - so morning will probably be the best windows.  Cya in the water.

Week Ahead

Should be offshore most of the week - especially for am sessions.  No big surf - just fun size back to back pulses of northwest swell and windswell.  A bit bigger Wednesday/Thursday.  Next large swell event looks likely for next week - as an old typhoon is going to go extratropical off Japan, get caught in the westerlies and head our way with swell.  More on that later in the week.  Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Small mix of northwest windswell and southwest groundswell for the weekend.  Waist to shoulder high- maybe some bigger sets during favorable tides.  Winds look lightest for the AM sessions - stronger afternoon flow.  Fog and low clouds hanging around.  Not too much interesting on the long term right now - waiting on the North Pac to really get busy and shift the season into high gear.  Cya in the water.

Conditions to improve later in week

Windswell is 12ft at 10-11 sec from 310 plus.  Winds are actually lighter than forecast nearshore, but still blowing strong over the outer waters.  Storm system has dropped down south out of BC, right now going down the spine of the sierra dropping some early season snow.  No rain forecast for us, just cooler temps and breezy.  Things should improve more Thursday and Friday - swell will drop through the period and we should have light AM winds, but probably stronger afternoon onshores.  No pure offshore period forecast, in fact the extended into next week shows more of an onshore component to our weather.  Should be waves to ride, just check the winds.  Cya in the water.

Updated Weekend Forecast

Water temps are dropping with the strong northwest winds - Bodega Buoy showing 48 F.  No real data available closer in since the NOAA SF Buoy isn't reporting temp and the Half Moon Bay Buoy is now offline too.   With more and more buoys failing or offline it will become harder in the near future to get a good sense of what is going on in the outer waters and it's most dangerous for fisherman and commercial marine transport.  In the meantime, we work with what we have.  The rest of the week will feature northwest windswell/mid period groundswell in the 3-6ft range.  Conditions should clean up late tonight as the winds veer from northwest to northeast and offshore.  So the next few mornings "should" feature cleaner conditions with cold water temps.  No significant swell on the charts yet - but models are hinting at perhaps another good shot late next week.  Cya in the water.