Forecast Through New Years....RIP Sean Collins

Sad to hear that Surfline founder Sean Collins passed away this week at 59.  Despite what many have said about his website, as well as forecast sites, the fact remains he was an amazing resource for weather and surf information and revolutionized surf forecasting.  He will be missed for sure.  The thing about surf forecasting, you can provide all the info you want to the masses - it still requires a brain, local knowledge and the ability to interpret information on the part of each individual surfer to "know when to go."  Even on our crowded coast, there are plenty of spots that will always remain uncrowded for that reason.

For us, large back to back northwest swells will continue through the weekend - getting extra large again by late Friday into Saturday (double/triple overhead).  Zonal flow is sending rain into the Pac NW, but we're on the wrong side of the jet stream and look to stay dry through the period.  In fact we're not forecast to have any rain near our region now through about Jan 10.  This is not good at all for Cali, with 38mil plus people and high water needs - we need snow and rains.  December will go down as the 3rd driest on record in San Francisco (going back 160 plus years) - so the situation is not a good one.  Many spots that need rain to turn on - are quietly  sleeping - yet we've had epic day after day at other locations.  It's a mixed bag.  Winds look pretty good through the weekend - especially for AM sessions.  Tides will mellow out some as well.  Plenty of size.  Happy New Year and cya in the water.

Big Swell for Christmas

Long period waves hit the Papa Buoy last night - peak at 22 ft, 19 seconds. Swell is inbound and will fill in late tonight through Saturday - good for double to triple overhead waves again through the weekend at north/northwest facing spots.  Winds will continue offshore, especially mornings.  High pressure looks to finally break down middle to late next week with a slight chance of rain starting Thursday.  No big soaking rains forecast, just systems brushing to our north.  Happy Holidays and cya in the water.

Forecast & Pics from Saturday, Dec 17

Doesn't get much better around here than this past Saturday.  Solid swell, off shores.  All photos courtesy of Sean Shafer.

As for forecast - solid WNW swell continues through most of the week with offshores forecast to kick back in tomorrow through Friday.  Swell today is still in the 10-12ft range at 14 sec from 300.  Plenty of surf all week.  Cya in the water.

Andrew Kidman

Andrew Kidman - InnerViews from www.KORDUROY.tv on Vimeo.


Thanks to Seekfind for posting on his blog.  Could totally relate to this tonight.

Weekend looks offshore and larger swell arrives Sunday

Back to back WNW swells will arrive starting late Friday - through Monday.  Should see some deepwater swell heights of 6-7ft late Friday - jumping up to 5-8ft Saturday - with bigger sets at northwest facing breaks.  By Sunday - double to triple overhead sets common at northwest facing breaks - with larger sets at times.  Could be offshore all day Saturday - for sure offshore Sunday morning.  High pressure is locking down the region again - and looks to stay dry through Christmas.  Right now we're running far below seasonal norms for rainfall and snow in the Sierra so it's a good time to remind everyone to conserve water.  We have a couple more months of winter left so let's hope the pattern changes.  In the meantime - just ideal surfing weather ahead.  Both swell events from nw at 280-300+.  cya in the water.

Good surf on tap all week

Weekend was epic in spots.  In fact, looks damn fine right now with offshore winds and solid swell in the 6-7ft range.  Look for surf all week - smallest day Wednesday - then creeping back up again Thurs/Fri into next weekend with overhead surf at top breaks.  Offshore winds certain on Thursday/Friday.  Looks like light winds mornings otherwise.  Storm track stays north and east of us.  Cold temps.  Enjoy it.  Cya in the water.

7ft at 20 seconds

Clean, long period wnw swell just starting to hit - 6-7 ft at 20-22 seconds.  Swell will continue to fill in all day - growing larger towards sunset.  Saturday will feature large, powerful surf at north facing breaks - size down a bit on Sunday, but still quite solid.  Wnds are offshore right now.  Should stay light to offshore both Sat/Sun mornings - really an ideal wind/surf forecast for the weekend.  It doesn't get much better for an incoming, long period event.  cya in the water.

Tracking Large Swell for the weekend

Winds have shifted to onshore tonight.  High pressure stays in control the rest of the week.  We have a new WNW swell due in Friday/Saturday - probably bumping up in the 6-10ft range deepwater.  Mornings should still feature light to offshore winds.  No pattern change until perhaps middle of next week.  Cya in the water.

Small surf through week, offshore winds continue

Surf should stay on the small side through the week - then jump up into the large category by weeks end.  Offshore winds look good for Tuesday, likely to continue each morning at least.  Very cold air temps tonight.  We're in a Rex Block pattern as the weather guys like to call it - blocking high pressure sits out in the Pacific along 135-140w - pushing the jet stream up and over the West and into the Great Basin.  This is the reason for these back to back offshore wind events - but not great for swell production.  We don't get any rain either - which isn't good.  Right now the pattern looks to stay in place until Mid December - then perhaps break down.  The active phase of the MJO is trying to fire up in the far West Pacific (the active phase of the MJO increases the energy in the Pacific and thus storms and swells) - once that takes hold we'll probably see a prolonged period of bigger swells, more weather headed our way.  That's usually the case at least.  Still, pretty nice conditions for surfing, so go get some.  Cya in the water.

Offshore Winds through the weekend

Reinforcing shot of offshore winds start up late tonight -- will last through Sunday.  WNW swell is peaking tomorrow - deep water in the 6-10ft range - bigger to the north.  North windswell is also in the water - so beach breaks facing north/northwest will be a bit bumpy at times. Plenty to ride.  cya in the water.

Big Offshore Wind Event

Looks like solid surf through the week - with overhead to well overhead waves at north facing breaks forecast as back to back to back northwest swells keep the energy going.  The big news is going to be the wind - for a few days now NOAA has been forecasting a super strong wind event which is due to start during the day on Wednesday and last through Thursday night.  This is due to a weather system dropping into the Great Basin while as the same time high pressure builds in along the coast.  Could see winds in the coastal gaps as high as 50kts and spots like Mt Tam, Diablo etc could see gusts as high as 80kts.  So look for some hefty paddling into the face of waves with all that wind.  Cya in the water.

Nice conditions!

Large NW swell fading late today - still showing in the 1.5x to 2x overhead range at top spots.  Winds are blowing east and offshore.  Swell will drop fast tonight, but still be 1-2 ft overhead on Sunday at top spots.  New NW swell fills in late Sunday, not as big as yesterday and today.  Winds should stay offshore on Sunday, perhaps into Monday morning.  Good end to the long weekend.  cya in the water.

Hello Orion!

Ah, winter is close.  Caught Orion rising in the Eastern sky tonight on my walk over to feed some horses.  Always a welcome sign.  Feels like winter too, cold temps, cold ocean - big swells on the way for the Thanksgiving weekend - along with wind, rain and storm.  Look for small surf Tuesday, rising south winds later in the day.  New storm hits Wednesday and Thursday with rain and strong south/south east winds.  Surf 6-10 ft deepwater Wednesday, heading to the 8-10 ft range (deepwater) on Thursday and Friday with west/northwest winds due as well.  So not very clean, but plenty of swell.  If you know where to look, you'll find surf.  Happy Thanksgiving.  Cya in the water.

17 ft at 15 seconds.....

Buoys to the north are showing next swell train inbound with deepwater in the 17ft range.  Closer, Pt Reyes, 10ft at 14 seconds - solid.  Winds are light this morning, from southwest to northwest depending on your location.  Swell will fill in today - peak Saturday with deepwater swell in the 8-12ft range.  Steep angle (320+) as all our recent storms and swells are originating high in the eastern Gulf of Alaska - as high pressure is controlling the Central Pacific and pushing the storm track up into the Bering Sea, down into British Columbia.  This pattern is still very typical of La Nina which appears to still be in control of our weather and waves this winter.  Winds are forecast to be out of the northwest most of the weekend - probably lightest in the mornings and/or find places sheltered from the wind.  Plenty of surf on tap for sure with chance of light rain on and off until Sunday.  Cold temps as well mornings and overnight.  Cya in the water.

New Swell - 8ft at 14 sec from 330

Steep angle north swell filling in this evening.  Winds are blowing north/northwest.  Pretty much looking for north/northwest winds all week - lightest in the AM each day with a decent mix of northwest swell in the water throughout the week.  By Friday, the storm door will open again brining us a chance of rain, cold temps through next weekend.  Definitely waves to ride, just keep an eye on the winds and you'll most likely have to find protected places to surf and/or surf early mornings.  Cya in the water.

Papa Buoy 30ft at 14, CA Buoy 19 ft at 15 sec

New west swell is hitting outer buoys bigger than forecast.  Peaked last night at Papa with 30 ft at 14 seconds.  OB is going off right now with offshore, dropping tide and solid 6ft sets.  This is just the early stages, real swell won't get in here until late today.  Tomorrow AM should be quite solid (double overhead plus) and if we're lucky, still offshore.  Dust off that rhino chaser.  Cya in the water.

Offshore storm winding up, east wind all day

Small and clean with gentle east winds all day.  Surf will stay small through morning/mid day Thursday - then things should start to come up late PM.  SE Papa Buoy is showing 21 ft at 9 seconds with winds at 35kts gusting to 43kts - that will generate large short period swell.  Given the proximity of the storm - only 600 miles or so offshore - this upcoming event won't feature long periods - everything will be in the short to mid range.  Friday could be pretty epic - 6-10 ft deepwater with more east winds forecast.  Saturday should be good as well, as the swell drops out fast.  Rain chances have been downgraded for Thursday, but likely see some rain on Friday - especially near the coast.  Weekend right now looks cool and dry.  Plenty of surf, check the winds.  Cya in the water.

Week Ahead

Tuesday looks pretty damn fine with offshore winds forecast and fading northwest swell in the 4-7 ft (deepwater) range.  Swell will continue to fade Wednesday, but feature fun size waves at north facing breaks.  Weather through Wednesday looks cold in the mornings, clear skies, light winds AM.  By Thursday, next storm system drops down from BC/Gulf of AK - bringing rain late Thursday.  Then a chance of rain on and off through about Saturday.  This storm is going to get cut off from the jet stream (a cutoff low) and meander, and while it does that it's going to pump in swell for the 2nd half of the week - from various angles as the storm moves down the coast of California.  It's going to be close, so expect the swell periods to be short to mid.  Friday morning looks fun, with east winds forecast and a sizable mix of nw/w swell jumping back up in the 5-8 ft range (deepwater) - good for 1.5x at best facing north breaks.  So, plenty of swell all week - probably decent conditions on and off depending on location/wind direction.  Check it, know your spots and you'll find something to ride.  Cya in the water.

Surfboards for Sale

Selling some boards -
5.8 McCallum Mini Simmons/light blue with marine ply keels - *SOLD*
6.6 Fletcher Chouinard KMRP (Keith Malloy) - 5 fin FCS set up - *SOLD*
6.2 Channel Island Dumpster Diver - $250.00 *SOLD*

6.4. Rusty Piranha - $225.00
6.5 Channel Island Flyer - $275.00

If interested, leave a comment with your email address (i won't publish the comment, but can respond direct to your email).  I can take some pics, send you additional dims etc.   All of these boards are in super nice condition.  A few surface heel dents etc - but most have been sitting in my garage unridden for quite a while.

10 ft @17 from 305

Solid northwest swell filling in - peaks mid day.  Winds are light onshore/northwest.  Swell will continue through Sunday - a bit smaller tomorrow and Sunday.  Winds an issue - as we have another cold storm coming down for Saturday, which will linger into Sunday.  Winds should stay light onshore/northwest through the weekend.  There might be moments, so check your usual spots and you might get lucky.  Plenty of size.  Cya in the water.