UPDATED FORECAST 1-25

The XXL swell from the past few days continues to wind down today but still offering up overhead to double overhead sets this morning at north facing breaks.  Meanwhile, a new, long period swell from the west northwest is already in the water and will move into our outer waters tonight and be in full force tomorrow.  Look for deepwater 12ft (bigger further north) and long periods initially, (20 sec) to start.  Swell will fade out through the week and then we should have mid size surf on tap for the upcoming weekend.  Winds look pretty decent the rest of the week as well.  Might see a slight turn to the south tonight as a very weak system to our north brushes the state with very light showers.  Nothing like we've seen over the past month.  Then winds should stay light for mornings in particular through the period.  Next "pattern" change for rain looks about mid week.   Cya in the water.

PAPA Buoy - 42ft at 17 seconds

All my years doing this blog and before - i can't remember seeing a buoy reading that big at our far offshore buoys.  42ft at 17sec.  That's deepwater swell.  Think about that for a few moments.  Think about that size wave at Mavericks - hitting the reef coming out of deep water.  How big the face?  80, 100ft?  125ft?  Swell will decay as it starts to hit the next buoys - but it's going to be pretty friggin large late tomorrow and Saturday throughout the region.  NOAA still saying 25ft deepwater or so - pretty damn big.  Unfortunately it will be a a complete turd fest with ongoing rain, southwest to west winds - howling rain.  Big, large unruly surf.  Will be fun to watch.

UPDATED FORECAST - MLK DAY

Winds are fairly light today as a new northwest swell has filled in overnight.  Deepwater is around 7-8ft at 15 sec from 295 plus.  This is the last dry day for the weekend ahead as another series of strong storms will come ashore with powerful south winds and very large swell by the weekend.  In fact NOAA forecasting surf heights 20ft plus and even larger the further north you go Friday through Sunday.  Plenty of swell in the water before that - just winds the issue - but there might some spots that light up if you know where to look this week.  Cya in the water.

UPDATE FORECAST - JAN 9TH

Major storm has exited the region with just some scattered showers around the area this morning.  Short lived break as another storm is due to arrive late tonight through tomorrow bringing more heavy rain and wind.  Right now looks like we have to wait until next weekend for a break and high pressure to return.  Additionally, morning winds look like they might be decent Friday and Saturday with swell dropping into the head high to a bit overhead at best winter breaks.  Until then, get some work done.  Swell is going to jump up mid week again but winds will probably thrash it.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - BEWARE THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER

Wet, windy, small, very small surf - unusually so when we have this much storm activity out in the Pacific - but many of these systems are lacking a real core low pressure spinning for days off shore in a favorable location so we're left with smaller windswell.  That won't change much going into the weekend other than we will see an up swing in south to southwest storm windswell as the next series of systems come roaring ashore Saturday into Monday.  This atmospheric river event (which is the new name for "Pineapple Express," is going to point a fire hose of water at some point on the North to Central Coast of CA - still trying to pin point where and timing but wherever it lands over the weekend you can expect plenty of rainfall.  Should be a real shit fest for surf over the weekend - but with south winds and some swell there are spots that will work and you probably know which spots those are.  Cya in the water.

NEW YEARS WEEKEND FORECAST

Our nice conditions of the past week will slowly fade going into tomorrow as a pair of very cold storms drop due south out of BC, bringing with them strong north winds, scattered showers and a chance of very low elevation snow over the hills and ranges of Nor Cal.  Extremely cold morning temps will follow into next week and it will be very blustery overall.  Surf wise - 8-10ft deepwater continues this morning with light north to northeast winds.  Saturday, surf will stay around 10-12ft at 13 seconds.  Winds will increase Saturday, 20-30 knots. Same swell size for Sunday.  Northwest winds forecast Sunday at 20-30 knots so look for a heavy dose of windswell/chop over the main swell.  Water temps have already been very cold and look for them to tumble a few more degrees after this weekends wind event.  Have a safe New Years and cya in the water.

MERRY CHRISTMAS

East winds on this Christmas morning and very cold temps.  Swell is 9ft @11-12 seconds from 300.  Swell fades more today and tomorrow will feature east winds and smaller surf.  Look for 5-6ft at 12 seconds tomorrow.  Swell will build again Tuesday - 9ft at 16 and stay above that height through Thursday.  Winds most of next week look pretty nice for morning sessions - light east to north winds. Cold air temps.  High pressure setting up over us for a bit of an extended run, at least until late next weekend or so when models forecast a wet pattern to return.  All the best this holiday season to you and yours - looks like a fun week of surf ahead.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - 12-19

North to northeast winds are providing offshore winds this morning and most spots.  New swell has been filling in overnight as the old one fades, buoys to the north are 8-9ft at 19 seconds.  Swell will build all day.  An incoming weather system will bring a slight chance of rain from Sonoma north tonight and winds will shift to the south/southwest briefly and then back to north on Tuesday.  Swell will build as a new swell train rolls in that evening at 12ft at 20 seconds (deepwater).  Period drops on Wednesday to 17 seconds, but size remains 11-13ft.  That swell fades and yet another swell rolls in about Friday - pushing heights back up into the 12-15ft range.  Better chance of rain around Thursday. After that front passes tomorrow winds should be fairly light near shore until Friday when winds are forecast to increase out of the north at 20-30 knots.  Temperatures are going to moderate over the next few days so mornings won't be quite so frosty.  So plenty of waves on tap, check the winds.  Happy Holidays to everyone and cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 12-15

Strong storm system with plenty of rain is roaring ashore today and will affect out weather for the next 24 hours or so.  Considering all the low pressure circulations offshore you might expect larger surf - but that will stay fairly mid size through the weekend and first part of next week.  Look for NW swell at 8-9 ft at 10secs Friday, and then a new pulse of NW swell on Saturday at 4-6 @17 sec.  Dropping Sunday to 3-4 ft.  That size sticks around Monday/Tuesday.  Mostly north to northwest winds the next 3-5 days too as fronts moving through the upper flow.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 12-9

Rain off and on for the next week and possibly beyond.  South winds as fronts come ashore, north to northwest winds as they pass.  Biggest swell thru about next Tuesday looks like Sat/Sun - deep water 8-9 ft at 13 seconds - the rest of the time, smaller than that and quite a bit smaller than it's been around here for a while now.  Check the winds, there will be spots working.

UPDATED FORECAST - 12-3

New, long period swell is filling in - right now most buoys reading 8-10 ft at 18-20 seconds.  Winds are blowing north/northeast to northwest depending on location.  Water temps have chilled off some with all the wind over the outer waters.  Hovering around 54 now.  Swell will build all day and be quite solid by late PM.  Large tomorrow as well, deepwater 10-12 ft at 16 seconds.  Gradual fade into the middle of next week but plenty to ride.  High pressure is influencing our weather for the next few days.  Slight chance of rain very far north late Sunday and then again around Wednesday.  Biggest headline will be the much colder temps next week as the airmass coming down from the north has it's origins in Alaska.  Longer range is showing a return to wet weather perhaps late next week.  Check the winds, cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 11-27

Large west/northwest swell in the water this morning - 12-14ft at 12-14 seconds.  Winds are already up from the northwest over the outer waters as our latest front has passed through.  Looks like more chances of light rain tonight and then again around Wednesday - however best chances of rain will north of Marin County.  Large swell will hold through all of entire next week - with some size changes through the period as one swell train enters and leaves our region.  It does look like high pressure will set up over the Eastern Pacific and keep us dry through late week.  This will also ramp up the north to northwest winds and decrease water temps.   Check the winds daily as near shore winds might be lighter for AM sessions.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 11-20

Large West swell hitting today - 12-15ft at 15 seconds from 290 +.  Winds are south and will switch to northwest later in the day as the current storm system exits the region.  For the week ahead - look for three more storm systems to come ashore - Tuesday, Thursday and next weekend.  Swell will stay fairly elevated from the West through the week - with a few spikes in size, Wednesday into Thursday.  Winds will turn south as each front comes ashore, northwest behind.  Plenty to ride - just need to keep an eye on the winds.   Happy Thanksgiving.  Cya in the water.

UPDATE FORECAST 11-14, WEST SWELL CONTINUES....

Big tides the next two days as the Moon is the closest it's been to Earth in the past 68 years.  Winds are light/offshore at the coast and light northwest at the buoys.  Swell is 6ft @13 from 295.  Rain tonight north, slight chance of rain down to SF Bay.  Swell will wind up tomorrow into Wednesday - back in the 10-13ft range (deepwater) with periods 15-17 seconds.  Surf will stay elevated into Thursday - drop some by Friday.  A stronger storm system will come in by the weekend along with strong south winds and rising storm swell.  Rain will be likely north to south into Saturday morning.  Plenty of swell to ride.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - MORE SWELL ON WAY

Get out an vote today.  Great few days past with large swell and fairly decent conditions.  Another large west swell is set to roll in here late today through tomorrow - deep water heights should climb back into the 14-15ft @17 seconds range.  Winds do look light for the rest of the week as high pressure builds over CA shunting the jet stream far to the north.  Slight fade in size Thursday (8-10ft deepwater) then the surf will climb back up again for the weekend as another swell rolls in (12-14ft deepwater).  Chance of rain far north late Friday into Saturday but otherwise high pressure looks to be the main player for a dry November after a very rainy October.  Cya in the water.

WEEKEND FORECAST

Solid West swell this morning - 12ft @14 from 290.  Winds are blowing offshore.  Pretty epic morning ahead.  One more nice day in store before a Pacific Weather system drops rain over the weekend - probably as far south as SF but likely no further.  Most of the rain will fall in the North Bay.  Swell will stay elevated through the weekend as a reinforcing shot of West swell enters are waters on Saturday keeping deepwater heights in the 12-15ft range.  Winds will turn southwest Saturday and then light northwest back on Sunday as high pressure regains control.  The upper atmosphere jet stream and winds remain locked in a very stagnant pattern with high pressure over the West/Texas and low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska.  We sit just on the far western edge of the high - not solid enough to keep storms out but just strong enough to knock them down some as they come ashore.  However, with low pressure anchored in the Gulf, don't look for swell trains to end anytime soon.  The N Pacific is pretty agitated from the past 2-3 weeks of storm circulations and that will continue.  Cya in the water.

HALLOWEEN UPDATED FORECAST 10-31

Another storm system poised to come ashore later this morning bringing rain and south winds.  How much rain have we had this October already?  Santa Rosa is about seven inches above normal (normal is a bit over two inches) for the month - while Crescent City is almost 15 inches above normal for the month.  Low pressure remains anchored in the North/Northeast Pacific spiraling systems and swell trains towards the West Coast.  South winds today with northwest swell leftovers from 8-9 ft at 11 seconds.  Winds will shift to west overnight, with a bump up in northwest swell tomorrow to 9-13ft at 13 seconds.  Might be something to ride at the more sheltered spots.  Wednesday will feature light south winds, deepwater swell 6-8 at 14 seconds.  Thursday and Friday, lighter north to northwest winds and a XXL swell cranks up pushing deepwater heights back to 12-16ft range.  Looks like after today the frequency of the systems will slow down as high pressure tries to regain control, but chance of rain Wednesday, far north and then a better chance over the weekend.   Plenty to ride, have to look around and know your spots that will work with the variable winds all week long.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 10-24-16

I'll be out later this week and this will be the only post through next Sunday.  Very stormy pattern has set up for us and we will see bouts of rain on and off through next weekend and possibly beyond.  West to northwest swells will propagate across the Pacific through the period along with mostly south to southwest winds, some northwest winds behind fronts as they pass through.  Should be plenty of surf on tap, finding a spot clean to ride will be the main issue.  Might be a good week to get some work done.  I'll post an updated forecast next Monday.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST, TWO NEW LINKS IN FORECAST SECTION

I've added two links in the Forecast Links section on the right of the page. NOAA Wavewatch III Model with NE Pacific animations and US West Coast.  These are good models to view incoming swell trains.  La Jolla Scrips server has been offline for over a week now - so I deleted NOR Cal Buoy link and Combined Pacific Buoy links from that site.  I'll keep checking back and if they come online will add them back to the page.

Swell wise - fading northwest swell from earlier this week remains in the water today - about 5ft @11 seconds.  New swell will start to show late tonight, north first and then be quite solid for Saturday.  Look for deepwater swell to jump to 10ft at 15 seconds for Saturday.  Swell direction 290-310.  Swell will hold into Sunday and then begins to fade for Monday.

Winds are blowing northwest right now strongly over the outer waters, lighter near shore.  Fog has returned to much of the Northern Coast of CA.  High pressure hanging over us until about Sunday when the weather pattern begins to shift to a wet one - with rain starting late Sunday night very far north and making it's way to Marin/SF Bay by late Monday or Tuesday.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 10-18

High pressure gradually building over the Pacific in the wake of our weekend storms which brought anywhere from 5 inches of rain North Bay and SC Mountains, to around an inch or more around the Bay Area.  North to northwest winds will be the rule the rest of the week, especially over the outer waters and far north.  Next significant swell looks to line up for next Friday into Sunday - deepwater swell heights to push 9-12ft on Saturday.  Until then - windswell and mid period northwest swell/or fading northwest swell the remainder of the week.  I'd check the winds each morning - near shore winds might be manageable for certain spots.  Next pattern change looks late Sunday into early next week with more rain forecast.  Cya in the water.

WEEKEND FORECAST - forgettabouitt

If you like your surf big and stormy, this weekend will be for you.  Northern Buoys are already 12-14ft with long periods plus 15 seconds and a larger swell is due for Sunday deepwater swell heights far north will be pushing 14-18ft.  Winds are south to southwest at around 22kts.  Storm #1 just going through the Bay Area now - should be a break later today and then a second system roars ashore for the weekend.  South to southwest winds through the period - don't see a shift to northwest winds until Monday when both systems have passed.  Go south if you want swell but no weather.  Cya in the water.

STORM DOOR OPENS MID WEEK AND BEYOND

First series of winter storms will begin to impact the Bay Area lateThursday and last through next weekend.  Heavy rain, winds and large storm surf will be the norm from late Thursday on.  Right now models hinting at a sustained and large swell train starting out 9-12ft deepwater Thursday night pushing to 15-17ft deepwater for Friday and Saturday.  Heights will drop to 12-15ft on Sunday.  South winds - very strong at times will be present through that period.  I'd say enjoy the relative calm before the proverbial storm over the next couple days with out small northwest swell in the water at 4-5ft at 13-15 seconds.  Fog is in, but winds are somewhat light depending on location until about Wednesday.  Should see some rather rogue and dangerous conditions late week.  Cya in the water.

WEEKEND FORECAST 10-7

N Pac swell is presently 3.5 @10 from a steep 320.  Nothing of interest from the S Pac.  Swell will continue to wind down through the weekend with lighter winds at least thru Sunday, especially for the mornings.  Not looking for any swell of significance just windswell 4-5ft at 9-10 seconds.   Things are suppose to get busier next week as the N Pac is quite active with storms at present and that activity should continue all the way through next weekend and bring rain to part of Nor Cal as well.  Will update late weekend.  cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST OCT 2

One system exiting the region tonight as another Pacific system following quickly behind will bring more rain to Nor Cal starting overnight far north, moving south through the Bay Area thru the day on Monday.  Winds will increase from the south all day , and switch to the northwest after front passage.   Swell will increase Wednesday and Thursday with deep water heights forecast to be 5-8ft (highest far north).  Winds look to stay elevated from the northwest most of the week, perhaps slowing down some towards next weekend.  Long range models are forecasting a large run of surf next week (starting around Oct 10th)  - still early days on that - but looks like we might see our first run of XL surf mid month.  Plenty of swell to ride until then, know your spots, check the winds.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 9-27

Southwest swell will be winding down through the day.  Another smaller run of south to southwest swell is due in Thursday through Saturday - this one should be good for shoulder to head high surf at best south facing breaks through the period.  Shorter period northwest swell and windswell will also be in the water Friday through the weekend.  Probably good for chest to head high at best north facing breaks.  Heat wave is over for now near the coast with onshore flow making a return later today with fog and coastal low clouds later.  Offshore winds will be gone too.  The rest of the week should feature northwest winds over the outer waters and far north - perhaps lighter conditions for morning sessions.  A storm system dropping down from the Gulf of Alaska will bring the first early season rain to far Northern California over the weekend, perhaps making it as far as Northern Sonoma County by Monday.  Bay Area should remain dry.  Cya in the water.

WEEKEND FORECAST

SW swell is pulsing up tonight - 2ft at 20 from 190-200.  Swell will peak tomorrow.  We will also see an increase WNW swell fill in Saturday - for overhead waves at the best north exposures.  Good weekend for surf.  Winds should be light early Saturday, trend up later in the day.  Better winds possible for Sunday with warm temps and perhaps offshore flow making it all the way to coastal areas.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST

Fall Equinox is Thursday.  Current northwest swell is winding down today but still 6-8ft at 14 seconds depending on location.  Windswell also in the water and a small southwest swell. Winds are light to variable or south also depending on location.  A few storm systems show up on the Pacific loop.  One will drop through the northwest and far Nor Cal tomorrow - slight chance of rain very far north near the Oregon border.  Another, larger system just coming under the Gulf of AK should send us swell for this coming weekend.  More on that around Thursday.  Until then - northwest swell will fade, windswell will probably rise up as brisk north to northwest winds will come in behind the front on Wednesday shredding things a bit.  Also does look like we may have a nice size southwest swell for the weekend too.  Starting to show around Friday and maxing out over the weekend.  Keep an eye on the winds, plenty of swell in the water, finding the right spot will be key.  Cya in the water.

PAPA BUOY BACK - UPDATE FORECAST

Papa Buoy is back online - 600 nm west of Eureka.  We once again have a good window to incoming swell trains this winter with Papa, West Oregon and California buoys all operating.  Keep an eye on those tomorrow as our new northwest swell shows.  Winds aren't ideal this morning - bit of onshore and northwest, light right now but should pick up later today.  It's small today mix of south and north facing swells, trace of tropical swell.  New northwest swell will begin to fill in late Saturday - probably overnight and build through the day Sunday.  Models are forecasting deepwater of 7ft at 14 seconds - will see if that shows.  It will be bigger further north you go, except for good north facing beaches around the Bay Area.  Keep an eye on the winds - will be lightest early thru the weekend.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - 9-14

Small northwest swell is showing today - 2-3ft at 13 seconds from 290.  This is from that system that was spinning in the Gulf over the weekend and as we started the week.  Small south in the water as well - deepwater running 2ft.  Look for the south swell to stick around through the week.  Current northwest swell will slowly fade out tomorrow with some left overs on Friday.  Attention turns to our weekend northwest swell when a longer period WNW 290-310 builds in Saturday (along with rising windswell).  This will be good for well overhead surf Saturday and Sunday points north, and good northwest facing spots around the Bay Area will get it on that action as well.  That swell will stick around until Monday.  Winds were pretty nice today as we had a bit of an offshore/southeast wind most of the day - sea breeze picked up late.  Winds look light Thursday as well, at least for the morning - then an uptick in northwest winds for Friday thru Sunday - at least over the outer waters.  As I've indicated, nearshore winds might not be bad - so check it each morning.  Finally there is some steep tropical/southeast swell from Orlene in the water which will only show at the most exposed south facing breaks tomorrow into Friday - but probably hard to notice with the more dominant south swell around.  Looking and feeling like Fall.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - HERE WE GO....

Sat photo to the right shows some decent activity starting up in the Nor Pac - as a storm has been crossing under the Aleutians for a couple days now and gaining traction over the open ocean.  Swell from this system will arrive Wednesday and Thursday this week.  Probably looking at 3-4 ft deepwater, 13-14 sec from about 294 both days.  Potentially bigger the further north you go.  Behind that - charts are showing more activity with a series of systems forming and delivering swell through the month of September - with a decent shot of surf forecast Sep 19-21.  More on that in the next week.  You will also notice south of Baja Tropical Storm Orlene - will keep an eye on this one as it might move into a more favorable swell window for us over the next 36 hours.  Finally, our current southwest swell, which provided fun waves all weekend is winding down into tomorrow, but there will still be some left overs around.  Winds this week are highly variable - going to blow northwest tomorrow shift south to southeast mid week, trend back to west/northwest late week.  Check it daily as AM winds might be ok for certain spots.  It is September and the heavy onshore flow we had all summer long should start to ease up - especially if systems starting dropping into the Great Basin on a regular basis to set up some offshore flow events. Plenty to ride the week ahead.  Check the winds.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - SEPT 8

As forecast, southerly winds and fog have returned to the coast this morning.  Long period forerunners of our southwest swell are just showing - 1.7 to 2 ft at 20 sec from 200.  Look for swell to build all day (it's a bit later than forecast) holding into tomorrow and then fading on Saturday.   Windswell remains in the water from the northwest along with slightly better pulses of northwest swell.  I am starting to see some activity in the North Pacific - a couple weak low pressure systems are moving through the upper region around the high pressure system that has been anchored there most of the summer.  Could see a bump up in mid period northwest swell late in the weekend into Monday - from 300 + periods 10-11 seconds.  Probably good for chest to head high surf far north and good Bay Area spots that have a window to the northwest.  Beyond that, could see a better shot of northwest swell next weekend and the first longer period swell of the season.  Wind forecast is tricky through the weekend.  Fog and southerly flow look to hang around - but could see light winds for the AM sessions, more onshore flow for the afternoons.  Check the winds.  Between the windswell/northwest and southwest swells in the water - should be plenty of surf.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST, SEPT 6TH

Not too much change in the thinking for the week ahead.  We have a couple of southwest swells in the water headed our way for around Wednesday, lasting thru Friday.  Looking for deepwater heights to be in the 2-3ft range with initial periods of 19 seconds, dropping to 18 sec through the day Thursday.  Northwest winds remain strong through tomorrow and then may start to fade some as high pressure moves into the Great Basin and the thermal low over CA moves towards the coast.  This should give us a southerly wind reversal by Thursday and lighter winds around the Bay Area and points north.  Some forecast/models calling for offshore winds, easterly flow for late week - think that might be overdone and overly optimistic - depends on the strength of the high pressure to our northeast and the location of the thermal low.  Water temps are cold now from all the wind - 50 at Bodega, bit warmer at SF Buoy with readings around 55.  No storms active in the North Pacific at the moment.  The Jetstream is pushing from the West Pacific up into Alaska down through BC with high pressure maintaining control for the moment in the entire East Pacific.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - SEPT 3

Shredded is a good word to describe conditions - north to northwest winds howling from the far North Coast all the way past Big Sur.  Water temps are dropping fast, already 52 at Bodega.  This is all due to high pressure re asserting itself in the East Pacific with low pressure departing to our northeast and east.  Windswell is increasing in size, but not sure you will be able to find anything clean to ride.  There will be a pulse of swell in the water starting tomorrow from West Pacific Typhoon Lionrock, but not sure you will notice it under the dominant windswell.  Deepwater swell will be 2ft at 17 seconds from 295-298.  Fading out by Tuesday.  Beyond that - couple of pulses with New Zealand origins show up mid week and beyond.  Southwest swell starting 215 + degrees 2-2.5ft deepwater Wednesday 9-7, with a 2nd smaller pulse Thursday 9-8 and Friday 9-9 from about 198-200 degrees.  Really waiting on a Fall pattern to take shape and nothing on the books yet.  Thought we were done with all this northwest wind - but mother nature has other plans for now.  Cya in the water.

SEPTEMBER 1!!

Welcome to meteorological fall (Sep-Nov) and the start of the good wave season for Northern and Central CA.  You made it thru another summer.  It's not looking that Fall like at present, but hang in there - things will be changing.  For the upcoming Labor Day weekend look for northwest windswell to continue along with small longer period swell from the southwest.  Winds don't look that ideal, northwest winds will blow most of the period over the outer offshore waters, but nearshore winds might be lighter, especially for the AM sessions.

While the West Pac and East Pac have been quite active with hurricanes of late - we have no inbound swell from any of those systems.  All the models point to things starting to pick up about two weeks into the month from both the north and south - with some decent swell possible from the southern hemi.  While we have transitioned out of El Nino to a La Nina state - it's a fairly weak La Nina, but don't look for the same type of size and consistency of waves we had last winter.  The energy out in the Pacific isn't the same.  Could see a fairly normal winter of weather and waves for Nor Cal - have to see how things unfold.  I'll be back on with regular reports now throughout the winter especially as things get busy and we start seeing some good swell events from the Nor Pac.  Cya in the water.

MID AUGUST

West Pacific Cyclone Omais turned extra tropical late last week and kicked up a couple pulses of very small west swells.  One has already come and gone over the weekend - you probably didn't even notice it with the wind swell in the water, but if you looked now and then at the buoys you would see some small 2ft @295 degrees in the water.  Another pulse is due to show today - again very small - 1-2ft deepwater - but a sign things are changing as we move towards September.  Always a good sign when systems turn extra tropical and come across the North Pacific.  Could see some lighter winds later this week with a mix of wind swell and a small southwest swell inbound.  September is almost here.  Cya in the water.

AUGUST

Mornings have a bit more chill in the air, local redwoods and native trees showing some early color.   August is a good month, slow transition towards fall.  Usually by mid to late August we will see some early swell signs of the season.  Right now, small south swell in the water this week - 2-3ft deepwater - and ongoing north windswell from 315+ as the pressure gradient north of Cape Mendo continues to churn winds over the outer waters.  Surf early, keep an eye on the winds.  Cya in the water.

END OF JULY

Last week of July - one more full month of summer to go.  Not much change ahead this week - strong northwest winds will continue to howl over the outer waters as high pressure to our east and southwest wrestles with low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska.  Good size windswell the main source of waves.  Tropics have been active but not a ton of swell making it up this far.  Way down under, some decent storm development showing for the past week and in the week ahead - may see some southwest swells show in another week or so.  Hang in there, surf early, or travel to warm waters.  Regular updates will start again on Sep 1.  Cya in the water.

HAPPY 4TH OF JULY

One more holiday to go after this one (Labor Day) and then it's fall.  Windswell, fog and not so great south winds remain our primary source of energy as we enjoy a typically normal summer holiday weekend.  There is some south swell in the water but it's very small and inconsistent.  Two tropical systems churning in the East Pac - Agatha and Blas - could see some small swell from Blas late next weekend - depending on the track of the storm and how much it intensifies.  Keep your expectations low and you can find waves to ride.  Cya in the water.

JUNE - South Pacific to remain active.....

June gloom along the coast will hang around.  The week ahead will feature mostly windswell events with an uptick in swell from the southwest probably late Sunday, early Monday, lasting into mid month as a series of storms down by New Zealand ramp up and send swell north.  Still early, but forecast models look promising for a pretty decent run of swell.  Until then, get some work done, you might find some windswell windows now and then.  Cya in the water.

LATE MAY

Unseasonably strong low pressure system dropping south into northwest CA today - rain showers north of Cape Mendo and some high elevation snow.  Strong north to northwest winds are howling and water temps are tumbling again as a result.  49 degrees at Pt Arena and near 50 at the SF buoy.  Look for northwest winds most of the next week with medium size windswell.  Some background south swell will work in through the period - best at summer breaks.  Only three more months to go until September.   Cya in the water.

END APRIL/EARLY MAY FORECAST

Water temp at the SF Buoy this morning is 48.6 degrees.  Almost two weeks of on and off northwest winds have the upwelling machine running - with no relief in sight through most of the weekend as strong winds over the outer waters will continue to howl down the northern coast.  Big wind swell the result - at 12-13 at 9 seconds - but we also have a long period northwest swell building in with 14 second periods.  South facing breaks will be the only call due to the winds - but much smaller overall.  The South Pac has been active for the past two weeks as well with decent pulses of south to southwest swells propagating north - but for us - due to all the wind & angle of approach - those swells are getting hammered as they move into our local waters.  Some of the more favored locations for south to southwest swells may pick up some of these swells as we move into early May, but your best option will be south of our region in fact as far south as you can go.  Lighter winds forecast from Sunday into early next week - might be some windows for surf.  Until then - take what you can get, where you can get it.  Cya in the water.

MID APRIL

Large off season swell winding down through tomorrow - swell is 11 ft at 14-15 sec from 295 plus.  Look for northwest winds to blow for the next few days over the outer waters - could see possible offshore flow morning sessions this weekend - as high pressure builds some to our north and east and winds switch.   Northwest swell will stay in the 6-8 ft range through Sunday.  Dry conditions to prevail, maybe another chance of rain late next week.  Not much incoming from the southern ocean, NPac remains fairly active for the time of year sending in pulses of west/northwest swell.  My reports will be less frequent as we move into late spring and summer, the official off season in Nor Cal.  Cya in the water.  

APRIL

Hope you got some of that southwest swell that came ashore the past few days.  Certainly were some moments if you were in the right spot.  Northwest winds are blowing and look to blow all week.  Small pulses of mid period northwest swell and wind swell will be the primary source of surf.  Forecast is calling for an early spring heat event mid week with offshore winds - but not sure if these winds will transfer all the way to the coast just yet.  If they do, Wednesday looks like the best morning with this pattern.  After that, low pressure moving up from Baja will merge with a low pressure system in the Gulf and bring us a chance of showers from Friday through the weekend - along with southerly winds as the Baja low moves up towards So Cal.  Not much swell in the long term from the south or north.  Keeping an eye on the Southern Ocean for hints of south swell events to come.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast 3-27

Water temps have tumbled to 51 from 56 deg last Thursday.  Result of 72 hours of howling northwest winds.  Ah, spring in Nor Cal.  Junky north wind swell the rule through mid week - then by late next week a new northwest swell will arrive along with a series of southwest swells that will get larger as we move into April.  Winds forecast to mellow some by next Thursday or so.  Next couple days will be good days to get stuff done.  Weather models are hinting at a slight chance of rain by next weekend - will see if that happens.  Cya in the water.

Northwest Winds to blow

The last storm in the recent series is moving through the Bay Area today with rain, wind and scattered thunderstorms.  Northwest swell is building at 10ft @17 from 300.  Swell will peak tonight and slowly fade tomorrow.  Swell will stay elevated from the northwest the remainder of the week - combination of northwest swell and windswell.  Deepwater heights to remain in the 9-12ft range.  Northwest winds will really ramp up blowing 15-25kts for the remainder of the week as high pressure takes control.   Spots protected from the winds should be fun.  Cya in the water.

And Just Like That......

First day of Spring is this coming Saturday.  Strong storms of this past weekend already a distant memory as we are under warming high pressure with fairly light northwest winds for the next couple days.  North/West swell continues to drop, but still decent size this morning at 9ft @14 seconds from 300-310.  Swell will continue to fade into the weekend offering fun size surf with morning sessions probably featuring the best winds or places out of the northwest wind flow.  By the weekend, low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska will push the high pressure off to the east - bringing us a chance of rain from Friday through Monday.  Far north will likely see rain as early as Saturday night - Bay Area by Sunday.  Not a big storm and part of the weekend might be rideable.  New swell will build in from the west for Saturday and Sunday - offering deepwater swell in the 6-8ft range.  Beyond that - high pressure regains control and it's starting to look like this El Nino might be on it's last legs with the signal fading in the West Pacific and the season transitioning to Spring.  Then the focus will turn to the long term - whether this will be a multi year El Nino event or a one and done - sending us back into La Nina.  Let's hope it's the former.  Cya in the water.

El Nino Rules

Heavy rain, strong south winds and large surf (even larger on Sunday) the rule through this weekend. There are a few spots on our Coast that will work if you know them - otherwise - everything else will be a total mess.  High pressure forecast to make a return next week and dry us out and hopefully give us a few clean days of surf.  Time to grab it when you can because the northwest wind machine could be lurking around the corner as we move towards April.  The South Pacific has already fired a southwest swell in our direction (lost under the dominant west energy) - so let's hope El Nino still has the legs to give us a good summer.  Cya in the water.

MARCH - EL NINO WEATHER BACK FOR A RETURN ENGAGEMENT

If you like big surf, south winds blowing sideways - the next few days or longer will be for you.  The Pacific storm machine has set up again similar to what we saw in January - storms across the Dateline - with the first one impacting us today with mainly light rain and then the main event comes in late tomorrow on and off through Monday - with heaviest rain and wind SF north.  Large west swells will propagate through the waters for the next week as the ocean is quite agitated with all of the energy blowing from west to east.  So if you know those spots that like south winds and large swell - plenty to ride coming up.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast, March Looms, Where is El Nino?

I think by now everyone knows the surf has pumped this week.  Just as one swell was fading out today another new, long period west/northwest swell is pumping up and will peak tomorrow.  Saturday look for deepwater swell 12-14 ft at 17 seconds.  Rain is falling north of Sonoma as a front is passing thru - but we won't get any of that precip.  Wind on Saturday looks light northwest 5-15kt - perhaps fairly light in the AM.  Sunday, swell winds down to 8-10ft at 15 seconds.  Still good for double overhead at the north facing breaks.  Similar wind forecast for Sunday.  Swell looks to stay elevated thru next Wednesday as more, smaller west swells roll thru - keeping things in the 8-12ft range deepwater.  March 1st is usually the official end of the winter surfing season - but i think this year things are going to keep churning out in the Pacific well into spring.  El Nino is fading - but it's not dead and there is still plenty of warm water out in the Pacific to fuel storm and swell.  Longer term models hint we may see a pattern change late next week into the middle of March.  March can be a fairly wet month in a normal year - so let's hope we get some good rain events.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Large and stormy today with the next Pacific weather system making shore with rain and wind to come later.  Swell is about 11-12ft at 14 seconds from 295+.  Large storm driven wind swell is hitting far northern waters.  Things will begin to calm down overnight with lighter north to northwest winds forecast until Sunday.  Swell is going to stay elevated this weekend - 10-12 ft deepwater forecast - but with the lighter winds - especially mornings there should be some windows to ride.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast 2/11

Much hyped Mavericks swell is starting to show at the buoys - 9 ft at 20 seconds.  Winds are offshore at OB - it's big, clean and there for the taking.  Swell will build all day into the evening - peak tomorrow at 12-14ft at 18 seconds (deepwater).  Winds are forecast to remain light but might be a touch of northwest in it as the day goes on tomorrow.  Winds pick up further from the northwest on Saturday - 15-25kt range, turning more north on Sunday.  Swell will remain very solid all weekend - deepwater heights 12 ft @15 sec on Saturday and 9-11ft on Sunday.  Plenty to ride the next few days. No rain in the forecast for the extended.  El Nino has left the building it appears.  Very odd.   Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Swell Upgrade for Thursday

XXL swell due in now on Thursday.  Hurricane force winds of 50-70kts from a large storm in the Gulf of Alaska are whipping up a large swell train with confirmed seas right now 40-45ft way out in the Pacific.   Really good winds are forecast for Thursday and Friday.  Thursday in fact could be pretty epic for the regions premier big wave breaks.  Size will gradually fade into the weekend but remain solid in the 6-10ft range both Saturday and Sunday.  One more bout of rain on Wednesday and then we stay dry into next week.  Long range forecast models forecast a return to a stronger El Nino infused wet weather pattern around mid month.  So get some now.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Feb 1

El Nino takes another break this week with only two weak weather systems due in Tuesday and then again Wednesday.  Winds are easing after the huge event yesterday which saw a wind gust at Pt Reyes of 74 mph late afternoon, as the low pressure system that dropped down the coast has moved off into the southwest.  Large wind swell is winding down but still about 16ft at 11 seconds from 310 this morning.  Winds don't really look to improve until Thursday when light offshore flow is forecast for the morning. The two incoming weather events will bring south to southwest to west winds Tuesday and Wednesday.  West swell will jump back up on Thursday - deepwater heights forecast 11-14ft.  Smaller Friday, 8-10 ft.  Cya in the water.

Sleds for Sale

Parting ways with a few boards to make room for some others:

(2) Firewire Daniel Thomson Vanguards.  Both 6.2 stock dims.  both have deck pads.  $275 each.  

(1) Daniel Thomson Vader.  6.1 stock dims.  Deck pad.  $400.00

(1) Channel Islands Black Beauty - custom with no black band.  6.6 by 20 1/2 by 2 3/4 with 5 future fins, no dings, deckpad, leash, fins.  Like new.  $475

The Vanguards are in Marin.  If any of my readers are on the North Coast above Sea Ranch this weekend  - i'm in Gualala and the Vader and CI Black Beauty are with me.  email me at bnovick@mac.com if you're interested in any of these boards.  

As for the updated forecast - it's big and stormy!  Swell will begin to subside over the weekend to more mortal heights - keep an eye on the winds and you might be able to get a session or two in.  

Cya in the water.  

Updated Forecast/1-26

El Nino is taking a brief break leaving us with east winds this morning and probably tomorrow as well.  Fun swell in the water today - 5ft @10 seconds from 295.  That will increase late today as a new swell is already showing in our far northern waters at 6-8ft at 17-19 seconds seconds.  Solid swell tomorrow at 8-10 ft at 16 seconds.  Weather wise - that's all we get - then it's back to rain and southwest winds Thursday late thru the weekend - heaviest wind and rain north of Marin.  A much larger swell train hits Thursday and Friday - deep water heights back up in the 12-15ft range.  Get it the next two days.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast - More of the same

New storm system came ashore with one more on it's heels tonight into Saturday.  Swell is back up - 14ft at 15-17 seconds from 280 - big west swell.  Winds are south at 20kts plus.  Look for this large swell to persist through Saturday - then begin to subside Sunday & Monday.  Winds look like crap for Saturday sessions - west 15-25kts - a few nooks and crannies might be sort of rideable.  NW winds on Sunday, but light - might make things a go for the AM sessions.  Smaller surf to continue into next week with potential offshore/northeast winds forecast by about Tuesday as high pressure builds in and gives us a few days of dry weather and a break from the rain.  Won't last long - weather models suggest the ridge will break down and rain will return by about Thursday of next week.

On a personal note - very sad to hear about Marin Local Dan Dafoe who went missing this past Wednesday in the water off Fort Cronkhite.  I did not know Dan personally, but remember seeing him in the water over the years.  Prayers to his family, friends and all the surfers that knew him.

No break in the weather or swell ahead.....

Storm systems are lined up all the way across the Pacific to Japan.  Look for rain to continue through next week - on and off - a day or two between storms.  As such - winds will fluctuate between south as the systems come ashore switching to the southwest/west/northwest as fronts pass.  Rain and mountain snow to keep going.  Large swell events to continue on and off - with the next bigger swell event slated for this weekend - with deepwater heights going back into the 14-18ft range far north - a bit smaller Bay Area Saturday/Sunday.  Check your winds - protected spots will be best - in fact Santa Barbara is probably your best option this year - most of the swell and not as much weather.  Cya in the water.

El Nino Rules

As forecast months ago and fully expected - January arrived and El Nino is in full control of our weather and swell.  Pacific storms continue to line up across the Pacific - all the way back to Japan fueled by an ocean/atmospheric connection that in many ways has now even eclipsed the 1997 El Nino in terms of strength.  Remains to be seen if we see the same copius amounts of rainfall we had with the 97' event - but if we stay at our current pace no reason that won't happen.  Deep water heights running around 16-20ft today at 15+ seconds.  Heights will dip for the weekend - back into the 8-12ft range mostly - but still large.  Swell looks to run back up starting next week.  Winds are going to be north/northwest/some east (fairly light) the next few days - so spots sheltered from the wind, and can shape the swell will be best.  South to southeast winds will return late in the weekend as another storm system takes aim on the West Coast.  That system will be more organized - until then on and off chances of rain with weaker impulses moving through the flow towards the West Coast.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Happy New Year

Clean conditions with east winds forecast to continue for New Years Day.  Deep water swell 5-7ft at 15 seconds, increasing on Saturday night to 6-8 at 17 seconds.  Swell will continue to increase through the weekend along with high pressure breaking down and the storm door opening up for the first week of 2016.  Winds will switch southeast to south Sunday and last through next Tuesday.  Get on it the next two days - past that it will be stormy, windy and hit and miss.  Cya in the water.

Merry Christmas/Updated Forecast

Merry Christmas to all that follow this blog.  Swell is running 11-12 ft at 305 this morning, size should trend down over the weekend (along with light winds Saturday morning).   I think tomorrow will be one of the "smaller" days we've had in a while - with deepwater heights in the 8-10ft range.  Swell will go smaller on Sunday but by then our next storm system will be knocking on the door with southwest winds ramping up through the day.  After that system passes we may have a few days of high pressure next week allowing for winds to remain light for morning sessions.  Swell will slowly creep back up Monday and into Tuesday - 11-14ft deepwater again by Tuesday.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/12-19

Frontal passage early this morning with widespread rain throughout the region.  Northwest winds are already blowing early as the next large NW swell begins to roll in.  Already showing 12 ft at 14 seconds far north - will be in later today and hang around through tomorrow.  Swell peaks tomorrow at 10-15 feet.  SW winds tomorrow as another system comes ashore with rain in the afternoon.  Winds go NW again on Monday behind that passing front - swell remains 9-12 ft at 14 seconds.  NW winds will blow through Wednesday as we remain in a low pressure influenced environment - enhanced by El Nino - with storms lined up across the Pacific and dropping north to south along CA bringing rain, winds, mountain snow through Christmas.  By now you can probably see the pattern for the winter - rain, swell, wind.  Repeat.  We still have the heart of winter to come and i expect January thru February to be very active.  No shortage of waves to ride - just need to find places tucked in from whatever wind direction is active each day.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Week of 12-14

XXL large run of swell continues this morning with Pt Reyes showing 19ft at 12 seconds from 305.  Some of the biggest nearshore readings in a very long time were regarding this past Thursday with northern buoys showing 30-32 ft at 17 seconds for a few hours.  Rain, gale force winds accompanied all this swell and strong northerly gales continue today over the ocean with wind speeds still clocking 25-30kts.  Swell should peak today and move into more mortal territory through the week in the 8-10 ft range.  "Lightest" morning winds look like Wednesday, but no real clean offshore/calm wind events look likely for the week ahead.  In fact, another storm system will roll in next weekend, looking similar to this past weekend's system.  The good news with all this rain, swell, wind - lots of places up and down the CA Coast that need weather to open for business (river mouths, beach breaks) etc will start to get good, if they haven't already, just need the right combination of swell, tide and weather.  Cya in the water.

Biggest swell in many years set to roll in late week

The North Pacific is a conveyor belt of large low pressure systems right now and will be for the rest of the week.  Ocean surface is already agitated and primed from a week of strong winds and large surf.  This coming Thursday and Friday we might see one of the largest long period swells to come ashore in a long time.  Deepwater forecasts are calling for northwest swell 18-21ft at 17 seconds around the Bay Area - 20-24ft at 17 seconds! - north of Bodega Bay.  That's deepwater before it shoals, jacks and feels the bottom at area points, reefs and beaches which will crank up face heights dramatically.  Lots of weather coming in with this swell train - with rain starting Wednesday night and running through Thursday.  Winds too - west winds 15-25kts.  Surf and winds stay elevated through Sunday.  Another chance of rain Saturday night into Sunday.  El Nino making his presence known.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/12-7 Storm and Swell Door Open

December in Nor Cal - huge surf and weather systems lined up across the Pacific thanks to Mr El Nino.  Large WNW swell cranking up tonight - will be 15-20ft (deepwater) by Monday morning.  Look for light morning winds around the Bay Area, south winds further north.  Storm track is aimed right at Washington/Oregon and far Northwest California - with a complex low pressure system covering the entire North Pacific.  Periods of rain and wind look likely for far north the entire week with the best shot of heavy rain around the Bay Area on Thursday.  Swell to stay elevated through the week - not quite as big as tomorrow - but still plenty of size.  Check your winds, know your spots.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/12-3

Past few days featured east winds, large clean waves at Ocean Beach and other spots along the Central/North Coast.  Sat picture tells the story of change ahead.  A very strong storm system is moving onshore today with gale force south winds forecast and victory at sea conditions expected.  Swell is going to jump back up into the 14-20ft range - (biggest north of Cape Mendocino) - and stay large through the weekend.  In fact don't look for deep water swell heights to drop much below 10 ft through Monday with back to back West swells rolling through here as a result of a very active and strong storm pattern in the Gulf of Alaska, East and West Pacific.  El Nino is ramping up as we move more into the winter season.  Everything we've had so far in terms of rain and swell is just a teaser for the Jan-Mar time period when the current El Nino will be in full bloom and maturing.  Strong south winds today 20-30kts gusting to 45kts, and then pretty much light south winds through Sunday.   Spots that like that wind direction will be clean, but large.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/11-27

East winds along with cold high pressure ruling our weather the past two days and should continue into the weekend.  Deepwater swell on Saturday forecast to come up to 4-6ft at 14 seconds and then jump further on Sunday at 4-6ft at 20 seconds as a new long period swell fills into the region.  That swell will build to 9-11ft on Monday.  East winds look to stick around for Sunday and then shift SE Monday as a weak storm system comes ashore.  Chance for rain will increase mid to late next week.  Good conditions and plenty of swell the next few days.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/11-24

Strong low pressure system is moving through Northern California tonight with very cold temps, low snow levels and a lot of wind.  Ocean has responded to the system offshore - with Cape Mendo showing 17ft at 12-13 second intervals.  Not sure all the models have a good handle on this swell but look for deepwater in the 6-10ft range by sunrise tomorrow.  NW wind the rule and very cold temps for the early morning sessions.  Swell will quickly trend down through Thanksgiving Day and into Saturday - winds may improve for the morning sessions.  By Sunday, another large swell will roll in pushing deep water heights back up in the 8-12ft range.  We may see a fairly extended run of elevated surf through Dec 5th if the models are correct as the El Nino infused North Pacific gets energized with low pressure systems lining up and ramping up.  Plenty of swell on tap - check the winds and know your spots.  Happy Thanksgiving and cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast/11-19

Ridge of high pressure in control for a few more days as our run of northwest swell continues to fade into and through the weekend.  Northwest swell running 6-7 ft at 11 seconds - larger to our north.  North to northwest winds are blowing strongest in the outer waters and should remain strong until Saturday.  Best conditions will most likely be in the mornings for the next couple of days.  By Sunday swell should be in the 3-5ft range.  Big changes starting around Monday as a large area of cold low pressure will drop down from the Gulf of Alaska for the holiday week bringing wind, some rain and much colder temps.  Would expect to see swell increase as well but could be a mess with all the wind.  More on that late in the weekend.  Water temps have cooled now - running in the mid 50's.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Saturday 11-14

Booming long period swell showing early at 9-10ft at 20 seconds from the north/northwest.  Swell will increase into the very large range all day (already 19ft at 18 seconds up near Cape Mendo).  A vigorous storm system is digging south all day and will spread rain north to south overnight.  Winds will increase from the southwest overnight and switch to northwest behind the front on Sunday.  Swell will stay large through Monday.  Winds will stay northwest as well, switching to north mid week as swell fades but remains moderate sized through Wednesday.  Constellation Orion is rising a bit higher and early each night in the east.  Gotta love fall and winter in Nor Cal.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/11-8

Solid swell from the North Pacific will stick around all next week as back to back swells roll ashore.  Large NW swell currently in the water will peak tomorrow - deepwater heights in the 8-12ft range.  Swell will ease some Tuesday and more on Wednesday but remain quite solid.  Then a new swell will charge in next Thursday/Friday pushing deepwater heights back to the 6-10 ft range.  Winds look bad on Monday as the storm system bringing rain to parts of Nor Cal will come onshore during the day.  Winds may clean up from Tuesday on - at least for the morning sessions.  Check the winds - plenty of swell in the water.  Fall is starting to pop.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/11-3

Strong early season storm brought large swell, rain and mountain snow to CA yesterday.  In it's wake, north/northwest to northeast winds blowing today and swell continues quite solid at 9-12 ft at 11 seconds at 300.  Look for surf to stay somewhat elevated all week fading some by Friday and then jumping up again next weekend into the large range.  North to northwest winds most of the week, but check it each morning as winds may be lighter for the AM sessions.  Plenty to ride, just hit a spot you know will be clean.  Next shot of rain will be Sunday/Monday.  Cya in the water.

Next Forecast on 11-3

I'm away this weekend so won't be updating the blog.  I can say there is plenty of swell headed our way - some wind and rain too by Sunday/Monday.  Check the winds and buoys.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/10-25

Interesting week of weather past, Patricia, the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere (and a product of this year's El Nino) came ashore south of Puerto Vallarta with sustained winds of 200mph.  Higher gusts were recorded around 248mph while the system was still offshore.  Winds equivalent to an F4 tornado.  Because the storm came ashore between major population centers damage was extensive, but not catastrophic as forecast.  By now you probably also read about the cluster of large great whites sighted by the US Coast Guard between OB and Pacifica - fairly close to shore.  Interesting as well, perhaps related to the warm surface temps - doubt anyone knows for sure.  Uncle Whitey is out there.   For today, new good size WNW swell is filling in this morning and pushing surf heights back to double overhead range at top winter breaks with exposure to the swell direction.  Winds are light onshore.  Look for the swell to increase all day and peak tomorrow with deepwater swell in the 6-10ft range.  Lighter winds tomorrow morning.  The remains of Hurricane Olaf, now well north and east of Hawaii will get entrained by a strong Gulf of Alaska low over the next 24-48 hours.  The winds will increase over the open waters and send a good size swell our way mid week - with deep water heights back in the 6-10ft range on Wednesday and 8-12ft on Thursday.  Unfortunately, weather from this system may come ashore at the same time making a mess of things from a wind stand point.  Something to keep an eye on.  Surf will stay elevated into next weekend with a gradual improvement in the winds as high pressure regains control.  Plenty of size the next few days - check the winds.  Cya in the water.

Week Ahead/Updated Forecast 10-20

Lots of surf on tap this week with west/northwest, southwest and some tropical south/southwest in the water.  Pretty much west northwest swell in the water today and tomorrow (shoulder to head hight plus) - then a larger swell builds in late Thursday and Friday with deepwater swell peaking on Friday in the 8-10ft range.  Tropical southwest swell from Hurricane Olaf, out near Hawaii will mix in Thursday and Friday as well.  For sure the dominant swell will be the northwest which should keep waves going through next weekend as a new pulse moves in next Sunday.   Southwest swell in the background all week as the South Pacific remains very active for this time of year.  Winds should stay pretty light for am sessions this week - offshore flow trying to set up but might not make it all the way to the coast each day.  NO rain in the forecast through the period - but models are hinting at perhaps a pattern change over a week out.  Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast/October 16th

Nice couple of days past - small mix of southwest and northwest swells and light winds.  Storm system in the Gulf of Alaska will drop in overnight and spread rain from far Northwest CA thru the Bay Area.  Rain amounts around here will be very light a few hundredth's if we're lucky - most of the precipitation will fall from Sonoma County north.  Swell will come in late tomorrow - peaking late Saturday into Sunday.  Look for double overhead waves Sunday at north facing breaks.  Swell will be on the slow rise all day tomorrow.  Unfortunately, northwest winds look to pick up late Saturday on behind the front.  Lightest winds tomorrow morning for sure, maybe again Sunday AM.  But afternoons will feature stronger onshore winds.  Check it for sure.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Monday October 12th

Pt Arena is back online.  Along with the CA Buoy back and Pt Reyes Deepwater we have our eyes to the swells once again.   Large west swell is winding down today - 7-8 ft at 11 seconds.  Look for this swell to hang around a good part of the week.   Winds don't look that bad until about Friday when things might pick up from the northwest again.  Solid southwest swell is in the water - 3ft at 18-20 seconds and we should have overlapping southwest swells through most of the week.  Slight chance of rain mid week, south of the Bay Area from a system that has retrograded north of Baja turned back to the west and moving to the northwest/northeast.    Better chance of rain next weekend as a system from the North Pacific drops in.  Check the winds each morning - plenty to ride.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Wednesday Oct 7th - Unusual swell on the way ** Welcome Back CA Buoy!

Hurricane Oho is east of Hawaii and now tracking quickly to the northeast getting caught up in a larger low pressure complex circulating in the Gulf.  What is unusual for us, a fairly large west/southwest swell will begin to fill in on Friday (230-260 deg) and we could see well overhead to double overhead sets at stand out breaks.  As Oho gets absorbed into the larger system swell will turn northwest (270-300 deg) late this weekend and hold thru the middle of next week.  Stand out winter breaks will certainly be overhead and possibly larger - i'll update on that swell late this weekend.  Lightest winds will be found each morning - especially Thurs/Friday around the Bay Area.  Farther north winds might be a bit more suspect as northwest CA is much closer to the storm energy that will be impacting Oregon and Washington.  The pipe is wide open from way south of Hawaii all the way to BC.  Encouraging this early in the season and the thinking is as we get a bit later into the Fall and Winter set ups like that will start to focus the energy and rain onto CA.  Let's hope so.  If you open the Pacific Satellite link to the right and click on the 16k or 28k infrared imagery you will see all the energy flowing into the Northwest.  It's impressive for early October.  El Nino slowly starting to assert influence on the jet stream in the Pacific.  This El Nino, it's signature is very different from 97' or 82' - it's taking it's sweet time developing.  A slow train wreck and the full impact probably won't be felt until the heart of the winter - Jan to Mar.    One more small day and then things will get busy.  Check the winds.  I suspect more than a few unusual spots will open up on that first west/southwest shot starting Friday.  Cya in the water.  Finally, CA Buoy is once again back online and starting to transmit.  Just in time too.  This gives us a window out to incoming swell trains 350 nautical miles west of San Francisco.

Updated Forecast/Sunday Oct 3

Pt Reyes Buoy showing 10-12 ft at 10-12 seconds from 310 at this hour.  Unseasonably strong upper low pressure system is dropping straight down CA from Canada bringing gale force winds over the ocean and land.  Winds will peak between 10pm and 2am tonight and then slowly start to diminish on Sunday.  Swell heights to our far north will be 12-18 ft by the morning, lower past Pt Reyes.  Water temps as you might expect are starting to fall - dropping 2 degrees at Bodega in the past 12 hours or so.  I'd expect another couple degrees by mid day tomorrow.  Model guidance earlier this week really missed the size of the mid period swell also in the water and i believe most other forecasters are under calling wave heights for the current event.  I'd look for overhead surf tomorrow morning at north facing breaks with wind - smaller at south facing spots.  Check the winds, should be plenty of swell around.   Quick look ahead to next week should feature much smaller surf.  Next interesting run looks to be around mid month.  Stay tuned and i'll update again next week.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Wednesday 9-30

Sat photo tells the story or our swell maker for the weekend.  Nice small storm in the Gulf pushing winds and resulting swell in our direction.  Probably look for building swell all day Friday peaking over the weekend.  Biggest surf north - but most Bay Area breaks with good exposure to the west/northwest will see head high waves with overhead sets at the top breaks.  This will be mid period swell - probably in the 12-14 second range.  Winds right now could be problematic as strong north winds are forecast late week as another low is forecast to drop down the West Coast from BC (Inside Slider) which will create strong north to northeast winds over the weekend and cool temps.  Check the mornings - that will be when you will find the lightest winds.  North Pac looks active further to the West which should give us more swell as we move into the month of October.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Monday Sept 28

Light to variable/onshore winds this morning and should be the case the next few mornings.  Wind swell remains the primary source of waves - deepwater 3-5 ft at 8-10 seconds.  Small southwest swell is going to build in late today and might be good for some waist to chest high sets at south facing breaks.  Not a lot of surf this week.  Waiting on the N Pac to open up and generate some real long period swell.  We do have a low pressure system due west way off shore and that may bring us some mid period swell for the coming weekend.  More on that mid week.  Northwest winds may ramp up from Wednesday on too - will update.  Cya in the water.

Updating Forecast Links 9-24

Couple posts back I indicated the CDIP Pt Reyes Deepwater Buoy was taken offline.  Did some checking tonight on the CDIP website and it looks like it's still transmitting.  So I am putting the link back on the forecast.  Also putting a link to the Monterey CDIP Deepwater Buoy.    Wasabi.....

Updated Forecast/Thursday Sept 24

Winds have been lighter than forecast near shore the past couple days - but still fairly strong over the outer waters and northern buoys.  So worth a check if you have time.  New mid period northwest swell is building in 4-5 ft at 11-13 seconds from 280 +.  Still have wind swell in the water - (8-9 second energy) and a very small southwest swell in the 1-3ft range.   Large area of low pressure circulating in the Gulf of AK - but all associated rain is moving into the Pac Northwest.  That system is going to meander through the weekend and may continue to send us some mid period swell through the period.  Winds, as a result, may be highly variable.  So keep an eye on it - certainly some swell in the water.  Cya in the water.

Happy Fall!

Autumn Equinox happened at 120am this morning.  It's officially the first day of Fall.  Let's hope for plenty of swell, rain and some nice offshore wind events.  None of those things to occur between now and the weekend however - decent size wind swell in the water through Friday - but winds look to remain onshore and fairly strong - especially the further north you go.  Good time to get some work done.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Monday, Sept 21

One more really warm day inland and then things will start to cool off some towards seasonal norms. Short period wind swell in the water with light/variable winds.  Winds should pick up more onshore as the day progresses.  Winds look stronger onshore tomorrow through Wednesday - wind swell will increase in size thru tomorrow and then drop off.  Then we are looking towards a short/mid period swell event (280-320) from Thursday to Sunday, from a system in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska bringing head to overhead waves (biggest from Sonoma north).    Winds look suspect from mid week on due in part to that front moving into the Pac Northwest, so keep an eye on the wind links on the right hand side of the page.  We do have some overlapping southwest swells this week - but nothing remarkable.  Maybe some knee to chest high sets at south facing breaks.  In the bigger picture, the northern branch of the jet stream remains up in Alaska with high pressure anchored offshore and in the Pacific - pretty much the set up we've had for the past four years.  So the connection between El Nino and the N Pac Jet is not showing real improvement just yet.   This should change as we move deeper into the fall and winter when the main impact of El Nino starts to influence the upper atmosphere wind patterns and storm production.  Until then - shorter period/mid period wind swell the rule.   There are a couple tropical systems in the Pacific right now - far west and east - but nothing that looks to give us swell any time soon.  Cya in the water.

Cape Mendo Buoy offline now....

Another buoy to our north has gone offline.  It really will be back to old school surf checks soon - you'll have to drive to see what the surf looks like.  Maybe that's not such a bad thing.....So the Cape Mendo buoy has stopped transmitting - not sure if it's a temporary glitch or it's toast.  It might be toast.  We have deepwater swell in the 5-6ft range at 8-10 seconds from the northwest.  Winds are up a bit onshore - not horrible yet.  Should start blowing far north later today as high pressure regains control.  Good rainfall yesterday. Parts of Marin reported .50 inch of rain - up in Sonoma/Mendo some reports of 2.5 inches.  Decent for Mid Sept.  Look for swell to stay the same the rest of the week.  Might see an uptick over the weekend, but it's just wind swell.  There is a sw swell in the water, which was heavily shadowed by Tahiti.  So expect long waits and not much size - but south facing breaks will show this energy best.   Hint we might see some offshore wind this weekend - but i'm skeptical right now those winds will make it to the coast.  Check it for sure.  Cya in the water.

PT Reyes Buoy Gone

PT Reyes Buoy has been "decommissioned" by the CDIP.  So it's gone.  I had read that the National Park Service was going to try and cover costs to keep online - but unlikely that will happen.  Lost another good window to incoming swells up here - both from the north and south.  At this rate, I will probably start using tarot cards soon to read incoming swell trains.  Mid period northwest wind swell remains in the water today 3-5 ft at 8-10 seconds, but winds are blowing from the northwest in wake of the weather system that brought very light rain to the region yesterday.  Next weather maker is plowing down from the Gulf of Alaska - looks impressive on satellite imagery for Mid September and will bring rain to most of Northern California starting tomorrow morning far north and spreading south through the day.  Good news for the fires raging.  Winds and weather near the coast will continue to be an issue next couple days.  Good time to get some work done.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Monday Sept 14

Pattern change in the upper levels as the storm track is opening in the NE Pacific sending a series of weather systems our way through about Thursday.  Most of the rain will stay north of the Golden Gate with very light amounts forecast around the Bay Area (.10 to .25 of an inch) - however far northwest CA (Del Norte, Kings Range) will see upwards of 1-2 inches of rain by Thursday morning.   Northern buoys are showing the result - swell is 12-14ft at 9-10 seconds as winds have been blowing steady for 36 hours in the northeast quadrant of the Gulf of Alaska.  Winds are blowing south/southwest in advance of the first front now entering coastal waters.  In fact, don't look for much help in the wind department most of the week as things look marginal at best with south to southwest winds as fronts pass through the region - west to northwest behind.  A harbinger of things to come for this upcoming surf season perhaps?  Northwest windswell will dominate the week.  Biggest to the north.  You might find some windows in between fronts and early am sessions.  Things look to settle down again by next weekend with high pressure building into the region and warm temps returning inland.  May see a new pulse of WNW swell around the 17th/18th - more on that to come and look for a building SW swell later this week (Thursday) for waist/chest high surf at south facing breaks.  Watch the winds, cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/El Nino Update

SSW swell holding steady today at around 3ft 17 seconds from 180.  Wind swell at 3 ft 9 seconds from 310 plus.  This SSW swell will hold thru the end of the week and fade out Friday.   WSW swell from former Hurricane Jimena is fading out today.  Winds near the coast are light but trending onshore and we may see an increase in the fog and wind over the next couple days as the pressure gradient begins to weaken just a tad.  Inland temps will continue hot to extreme so only relief will be near the coast.  On a larger scale, Hurricane Ignacio has turned extra tropical in the North Pacific and will send a shot of steep angled NW swell (300-320) that will build in Thursday (northern areas first) and spread south during the day Friday.  Should fade over the weekend.  Size wise, probably on par with the wind swell now in the water.  The Jetstream in the North Pacific is showing some signs of Fall - but nothing remarkable just yet.  What is more definite is the 2015/2016 El Nino event on track to rival the 82/83 and/or 97' Super Nino events with warm to very warm water throughout the Pacific Basin.  Experts feel this event may be closer to the 82/83 El Nino in that it's location (or focus) is much farther west in the Pacific.  What that means for us, storms form further out and have time to send cleaner swell towards the West Coast.  That's not a given, just analysis from people who know a lot more about this phenomenon that I do.  As with past events, the main impact is the Jan-Mar time period - that's when a mature El Nino peaks.  This one continues to build and shows no sign of slowing down.  So we watch and wait.  Keep an eye on the winds going into the weekend, still should be waves around to ride.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Sunday Night

Overlapping SSW swells in the water tonight with deepwater energy showing 4ft + at 17 seconds from 220+.   Older SSW swell is fading out.  We also have a very steep angled SSE swell (160+) mostly bypassing our stretch of coast.  NW wind swell in the mix as well - 3-5 ft at 8-9 seconds from 310+.  Former Central Pac Hurricane Jimena has pushed out a small southwest/west swell that will start to show tomorrow and Tuesday.  Probably won't notice this swell train much with the bigger sw in the water.  Winds near shore have dropped dramatically and look for mostly calm to offshore conditions the next few mornings with a sea breeze in the afternoon.  Former Central Pac Hurricane Ignacio has turned extra tropical well north of Hawaii, will curve northwest and bring us a shot of fun size northwest swell late in the week.  More on that in a couple days.  Good week ahead for surf - cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Gulf wind swell is 4-5 at 11 seconds from 315 - much bigger surf near Cape Mendo with surf 8-10 ft at 11-12 seconds.  SW swell from Pacific Hurricane Jimena 3-4 ft at 11 seconds from 200.  Northwest winds are already blowing onshore and will increase throughout the day.  Gale warnings up far north, this will increase the wind swell over the next couple days.  I don't see any real let up in the northwest winds through Labor Day right now.  New long period southwest swell will move in Friday and Saturday and feature deepwater heights in the 3-4 ft range at 19-20 seconds.  Swell will continue from Hurricane Jimena at around 3 ft 12 seconds.  Protected spots will be best - need to get out the wind.  Water temps up near Bodega have dropped back to the mid 50s.  Still warmer around SF at 60 deg.  That will change by the end of the weekend, dropping some.  Cya in the water.

SEPTEMBER!

Welcome to the 2015/2016 Season.   We had west swell this past weekend from former Typhoon Atsani and steep northwest swell from a low pressure system that brought very light rain from Sonoma north and swell that is still around this morning at 6  to 7 ft - broad range of periods from 10-14 seconds second from 315.  Until Thursday we should have Gulf of Alaska windswell hanging in at around 4-5 ft periods 10-11 seconds, as the storm track is active in the northeast Pac sending small swell our way.  In addition to that - watching for southwest/west swell from Hurricane Jimena - which is presently in the Central Pac - East of Hawaii and forecast to continue a turn to the north.  If swell develops as forecast - look for that to show Tuesday to Thursday - deepwater 2-3 ft from 12-13 seconds - 195 degrees +.    Jimena is still a Category 4 Hurricane and it's location and track that far east of the Hawaiian Islands is very typical of an El Nino season, and Hawaii recently has seen a swarm of hurricanes from all directions.  Upcoming weekend should still feature some surf from Jimena, some new southwest swell building and ongoing windswell.  Winds don't look ideal most of the week with northwest/west onshore strongest mid day on.  Best bet may be early mornings and protected spots.  Plenty of swell to ride however.  Cya in the water.

CA Buoy coming back online in October

The CA Buoy (46059) is set for deployment in October - this is great news and timing for the coming season.  This buoy has been out of service since 2012.  It's a vital buoy as it's in a great location to give us a sense timing, size of incoming swell trains.  The buoy is roughly 357 nautical miles to the northwest of SF.  No update yet on the Papa Buoy, which has also been offline for a while now and sits beyond the CA buoy at a greater distance, but equally vital to tracking swell.  Incoming swell trains for the weekend from Atsani look a touch smaller than models projected, but there will still be plenty to ride.  Very early season low pressure system churning in the Gulf is set to bring a chance of rain to far northern CA and may increase southerly winds from late Friday on - but strongest winds will probably be north of Pt Reyes.  Cya in the water.

Swell doors open....

Last week of August.  N Pac and S Pac warming up with swell due in here later this week into next week and beyond.   Former Typhoon Atsani is moving north of Japan and will transition into an extratropical storm this week while pushing out a long period WNW swell (270-290) creeping up this Wednesday and topping out next weekend Aug 30-31.  Size wise - probably waist to chest high + mid week and bigger this weekend.  Also going to have some steep angled mid period NW swell (320+) mixing in mid week and some shorter period wind swell.  The mid period swell should feature overhead sets the further north you go.  SW swell (190-220) mixes in for the upcoming weekend - good to push chest/shoulder high sets in at south facing breaks, but might be lost a bit under all the dominant northwest/west swell energy.  Winds will be lightest early - still locked in a summer pattern of onshore winds.  But overall winds have been on the lighter side so check it.  As we transition to September, looking for these early season systems hitting the Pacific Northwest to cruise into the Great Basin and start giving us some offshore winds.  Really waiting for the jet stream in the N Pac to energize with El Nino fully flexing it's muscle as we move into fall.  Cya in the water.

And so, it almost begins.....

As of Early August, most experts have officially announced a strong El Nino is in play.  The warm water we're experiencing actually has nothing to do with El Nino, rather the lack of heavy northwest winds this summer kicking off upwelling and more about the ongoing southerly flow of wind which tends to increase water temps around these parts.  Elsewhere in the Pacific, subsurface warm water along the equator - stretching west to east and north and south with some key areas El Nino experts monitor  - much warmer than usual  - (referred to as the Nino 3.4 and Nino 1.2 regions) and West Pacific Cyclone Molave forecast to recurve and turn extra tropical to bring us potentially our first longer period west/northwest swell of the season next week.  If that system tracks as forecast we can see surf week of 8-24.  The northern branch of the Pacific jet stream is more active than normal for August - not remarkable, but certainly more energetic than you would find this time of year.  What's it all mean for us?  Well, hopefully copious amounts of rain - but that's not always a sure thing with an El Nino, where the southern branch of the jet stream can get move active and bring weather into So Cal.  But recent history has proven we get plenty of rain, 1997, 82 and smaller events.  High elevation snowpack - due to warm storms, high snow levels.  Good for water supply, bad for most Tahoe ski resorts.  Plenty of swell, but could come with a lot of weather as storms form close offshore and barrel through.  Will update on Typhoon Atsani early next week.  Then look for official forecasts weekly to start up in September.  Cya in the water.

AUGUST

Pt Arena buoy has gone offline.  We've lost another window to the N Pac for the upcoming season.  Not sure if NOAA cares any longer about buoys along the West Coast.  CA buoy and SE Papa have both been offline for around two years now.  Mix of northwest windswell and back to back SSW and SSE swells on tap this week - best winds look like Wednesday and Thursday.  Maybe again on Saturday.  Both southern swell events are coming in at a very steep angle so will miss much of the region unless you know where to look.  Less than 30 days to go until September.  Cya in the water.

Dog Days....

These are the darkest times of the year to be a surfer in Nor Cal.  About a month to go before the start of the surfing fall season - so hang tight.  If you look around, you can see very early signs (quite early in fact) of the season to come.  In West Marin, local elm and maples are showing color along with the Redwoods.  Could be drought induced and the trees are saying the hell with it and going into early hibernation, or a sign of an early fall and perhaps rainy season.  Time will tell.  El Nino continues to gather momentum and all will be revealed soon enough.  In the meantime, big warm up this week and that might extend enough to the coast to give us a break from the onshore winds and fog.  High pressure moving over us from the East.  A new southwest swell will start to fill in tomorrow and run through Thursday.  Peak day is Wednesday.  Should be good for chest high with some plus sets at good south facing breaks.  Angle of approach 210-225.  Just nw windswell right now from the N Pac.  Nothing on the charts beyond.  Next few mornings should feature light winds.  Cya in the water.

JULY - Updated Forecast

Run of southwest swells looks to start up next week.  All from the that super storm that started in the Indian Ocean, moved east under Australia and charged north past New Zealand.  Around these parts surf won't be as big as pictures and videos you've know doubt seen from Indo, etc - but we can expect an extended run of swell from this storm through mid month.  Look for things to start on Monday and go through next weekend.  Right now, probably deepwater swell in the 2-3 ft range - maybe larger at times - should be good for chest high surf at south facing breaks, also larger sets at times.  We also have a pulse of short to mid period swell from a Gulf of Alaska storm that developed over the past couple days.  Look for that to be 4-5ft at 9-10 seconds moving in Sat/Sun - biggest north of SF.  Water temps have warmed nicely (55-57 deg) since the wind machine stopped off Cape Mendo.   This is due to strong high pressure in the Great Basin with a low trough over CA, advecting monsoon moisture up from Baja along with s/se winds.  That should start to change by the end of the weekend and we will get back to more of a northwest flow.  It's still summer, so check the winds which will be highly variable based on location over the next few days.  Cya in the water.

Almost July, El Nino still developing

Looks like we may be headed for a better run of southwest swells starting later this weekend and going into Mid July.  An El Nino of some magnitude is looking more and more likely for the Fall/Winter of 2015/16.  Experts are hinting that it will be somewhere between the Super Nino of 97 and the strong El Nino of 82 - which wouldn't be a bad thing.  Still another month or so to go before we're clear on the strength of this event - but growing more certain it will impact our winter and surf next season.  I will return with regular updates/forecast on September 1.  Until then will update as needed or events warrant.  Cya in the water.

JUNE

Any way you cut it - June is normally tough - we're into the gloom, wind of springtime - but there are moments now and then.  Surf early, keep expectations low.  Hurricane Andres, only the fifth major hurricane to develop in the East Pac Basin this early is now a major storm with winds at 125kt and gusts to 145kt.  Some spots in Nor Cal will see swell from him later this week.  Angle of approach is going to be pretty steep at 165 degrees plus - so some spots may miss the swell completely.  In addition to Andres, we have steep windswell and some west/northwest groundswell through the week.  Winds are going to remain onshore all week - perhaps lighter mid week and beyond, at least for the morning sessions.  Should be stuff to ride from Wednesday on.  Cya in the water.

MAY

Hope you found some place to ride over the past few days on that really decent south swell that hit.  We're back to Gale Warnings, water temps will be in the upper 40s by Friday and we've got large, short period northwest windswell churning down the coast.  Don't look for any break in the winds - south facing spots offering protection will be best.  Another long period south swell looks to roll in this coming weekend (much smaller than this past event) but should provide something to ride.  Cya in the water.