Friday, February 26, 2016

Updated Forecast, March Looms, Where is El Nino?

I think by now everyone knows the surf has pumped this week.  Just as one swell was fading out today another new, long period west/northwest swell is pumping up and will peak tomorrow.  Saturday look for deepwater swell 12-14 ft at 17 seconds.  Rain is falling north of Sonoma as a front is passing thru - but we won't get any of that precip.  Wind on Saturday looks light northwest 5-15kt - perhaps fairly light in the AM.  Sunday, swell winds down to 8-10ft at 15 seconds.  Still good for double overhead at the north facing breaks.  Similar wind forecast for Sunday.  Swell looks to stay elevated thru next Wednesday as more, smaller west swells roll thru - keeping things in the 8-12ft range deepwater.  March 1st is usually the official end of the winter surfing season - but i think this year things are going to keep churning out in the Pacific well into spring.  El Nino is fading - but it's not dead and there is still plenty of warm water out in the Pacific to fuel storm and swell.  Longer term models hint we may see a pattern change late next week into the middle of March.  March can be a fairly wet month in a normal year - so let's hope we get some good rain events.  Cya in the water.

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