UPDATED FORECAST JUN 10

 Strong pulse of NZ Southwest Swell peaks today - right now long period buoy readings showing 2.8 to 3ft @17-19 seconds from 200-210.  Solid summer swell for much of our Coast with some shadowing from various offshore islands in So Cal - less a factor from SC north.   As mentioned, swell peaks today and gradual fade into the end of the week.   A steeper south swell will build in Saturday - peaking around 2@19 from 187 degrees.  Northwest winds will gradually rebuild during the week, although we've had a break of late - especially north of SF - with south winds, fog, "warmer" water temps around 52-53, but as soon as those winds kick up temps will drop for everyone again.   First hurricane of the season is down off Baja - but won't be a swell maker for CA.   Plenty of waves the next couple days - go surf & cya in the water!   

UPDATED FORECAST 5-27

Week ahead - small south/southwest swells will continue in the background - strongest Santa Cruz to So Cal.   Northwest winds and wind swell through the week - just enough size to keep some rideable waves around from SF > North.   Southerly swells around 2@15/17 seconds - wind swell will range from 5 to 9 ft at mostly 9 seconds.  Northwest winds mostly 15-20 kt and strongest over the outer waters.  Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 5-13

Late season northwest swell peaking today - around 10@12 seconds from 305 - winds are strong out of the northwest and that trend will continue the rest of the week - what we expect in Nor Cal during May.  Largish northwest wind swell will take over the rest of the week with small south swells in the background - nothing bigger than 2@17/18 sec.   Most of that southern energy won't make it around Pt Conception with the heavy northwest swell/winds coming down the coast.   So plenty of swell about - just very windy.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 4-25

 We are at the start of a decent run of south swell for the next 7 days or so.  Storm corridor down under New Zealand and just east of NZ is quite active with multiple storms this past week that will continue into next week.   Current swell is fading today - 2@14 from 203.   New NZ swell builds in late tomorrow 2@18 from around 195 followed by at least 3 more swells from the same general area and direction - about 190-195 degrees.  All will come in around 2@at 18-20 seconds - with period dropping some by Monday/Tuesday of next week.    Northwest winds will crank up starting Saturday night and last all the way through mid next week - typical for this time of year.  Water temps very cold - low 50s SF and upper 40s north of Bodega Bay.   Look for temps to drop further with all the wind in the forecast.  Slight chance of rain today and tomorrow and then high pressure builds in for the duration of next week.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 4-16

 Deep water swell readings showing mix of northwest swell at 6ft@11 from around 305 and south swell 2ft@15 seconds from 175 - steep angle.   Winds are light and variable as fog envelops the entire CA Coast.  Northwest wind and swell will pick up through the rest of the week - especially north of SF while the south will fade into the background.    Light winds and smaller swells continue into around Friday - then the northwest wind swell will take over for the weekend.   In between swell seasons right now with the Gulf fading and the South Pacific just starting to come online.   Cya in the water.  

APRIL

 Welcome to April - the time of cold water, northwest winds, chunky wind swell and south swells.   On cue, we have northwest winds and chunky wind swell - left over from a late season storm that dumped rain on CA, snow in the mountains and ushering in a northwest wind regime that will most likely dump water temps.   North of SF today wind swell is around 9-10 @10-11 seconds, 300 plus degrees.  Small south swells to move through the waters over the next day or so but will be buried by the winds.  Longer term seeing more activity down off New Zealand and Australia so there is hope for more southern swells as we head into the month.   N Pac is still active and not quite done with us - more rain coming in this Sunday and Monday (staying north of the Bay Area) - and still some low pressure systems on the charts that will send in late season swells.   All n all, not horrible, enjoy the windy small season coming upon us.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 3-21, WELCOME TO SRING

Spring has arrived, but the N Pac still has something to say about how long winter swells will continue.  New swell is in today running 11@12 seconds north of Bodega, smaller everywhere else and So Cal.   Far Nor Cal getting hit with another atmospheric river through Saturday, then we all warm up starting Sunday into about Tuesday before the storm door opens again for potentially a very wet end to March and beginning of April.  New long period swell will run in Saturday into Sunday - peaking about 8-9@16, gradual fade into Tuesday and then another smaller long period west swell starts to show Wednesday of next week - 7@17.   All these swells are pretty west in direction as has been the case almost all winter.   280 to 300 degrees.   Since it is March, expect light to moderate northwest winds through the next five days or so - fluctuating some day to day depending on the location of low pressure to our north and high pressure overhead.  Plenty of swell around, cya in the water. 

 

MARCH

 Winter makes a return this week into next as a series of strong storms come ashore bringing rain, snow, wind and chaotic swell through the period.   It will be hard to find some clean surf after tonight, even though there will be plenty of swell in the water from multiple swell trains due to impact CA into next week.   Lingering West Swell continues today into Thursday at 7-8ft @13 seconds.  On Thursday, new swell will jump up to 13@15 seconds and gradually fade into the weekend at 10@12.   Swell direction this week around 293-298 degrees.   Strong south winds mid week and again over the weekend, periods of lighter north to west wind in between the two major storms Wednesday and again on Friday/Saturday.   Biggest surf north of SF - smallest Central/So Cal.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST....2-28....Swell parade continues, March looms

West swell peaking today at 9-10ft @14 from 280-285.   Tonight another longer period West swell will move in at 9@19 from 285, building tomorrow to 12@17, peak overnight Saturday into Sunday and gradually fade into Monday.   Weather pattern will change Saturday night as a new low pressure system dives in and brings rain chances to the region.   Better shot of rain on Sunday, colder temps and then a chance of on and off rain through next week.  Winter returns to CA.   March looks potentially wet as the storm track stays active.   Tomorrow, Mar 1st is usually the end of the "good" wave season in Nor Cal, but swell looks to continue for a little while at least.  We do have some northwest winds in the forecast once that front goes through and just a matter of time before the spring time wind machine sets up and starts blowing.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 2-16

 One or two more weather systems this week and then looks like we might remain dry again until March.  New Gulf swell builds in tonight into Monday from 285 degrees - 8-11 ft @15 seconds.  We also have some background Gulf swell in the water today 4-6ft @ 13 seconds - also from 285.  Ongoing swell patterns will be from the West as the pattern will remain active to the Dateline and north/northwest of the Hawaiian Islands while blocking high pressure sets up in the Northeast Pacific.  Won't be as strong as the January dry spell.  Should have some decent weather over the next 10 days once we clear out.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 2-6

If you are like me, probably haven't been in the water for a while - parade of storms, junky surf, wind, etc - been a big mess.   Not much hope ahead yet - and we inch closer to March which will most likely bring an onslaught of northwest winds this year with La Niña being such a late bloomer.   Speaking of wind - no shortage of it in the forecast - strong north to northwest winds taking hold starting tonight and looks like that will last until Monday.   Storm today, moves out tomorrow - very cold, but dry over the weekend and then more storms next week.   As such look for steep angle, larger wind swell in the water for the next five days or so - 8-12 ft @9 seconds mostly - biggest north of Bodega Bay.  That's all I  got!  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 1-18

Fun size, left over mid period northwest swell in the water this am - 4-6ft at 13-14 seconds from 295.   Late this afternoon forerunners will show from a long period west swell spawned by a storm force low way in the West Pacific earlier this week.  Swell will initially come in with very long periods 19-21 seconds - 4-5 ft from 293-295.   Filling overnight, solid come Sunday at 8@17 seconds.   Swell will gradually fade through the day on Monday.   Winds look light through around Tuesday as we are under a blocking ridge of high pressure - with summertime fog/cold mornings.    For those wanting rain - perhaps our first chance late next week into the weekend and then a better pattern should start to set up by around the 2nd wk of Feb if not a touch sooner.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 1-14-25

 First off, LA made it through another Santa Ana wind event overnight, but a few more wind events to come this week for them.  Nothing as strong as last week.  Cali, in fact the entire West Coast is high and dry and looks to stay that way now through the end of January.  Blocking high pressure is the culprit- with two variations called a Rex Block and Omega Block trading places - both deal with the placement of high pressure and low pressure - and in our case neither are good - it stops storm production and swell production because the jet stream flow remains far to our north.   With this high pressure ridge over us and the northeast Pacific - nothing is going to break through for a while.   Add La Niña flexing now, mid winter, doesn't bode well for LA in particular.    They could very well not get much rain down there the rest of the winter.   Nor Cal has faired better with early seasons rains - 25-40 inches of rain north of SF to date for most places - but things will start to dry out later this month.  Surf wise - we do have swell as the West Pacific is still churning out storms - mid size/mid period stuff most of this week - deepwater heights 6-8ft 13-14 seconds - followed by an increase in larger north wind swell when winds pick up again Friday into the weekend.  Water and air temps are cool to cold - SF water around 53 - further north - 49-50.   Offshore winds for the most part in the mornings - so some ideal conditions.   Not seeing any change in the pattern now through Jan 26.   Beyond that hopefully the pattern will break down and give us something that looks like winter again.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 1-8-25

 First off - weather and fire update for our friends to the south.   Strong/damaging Santa Ana winds will continue through the day, turning more northeast overnight.   Jet stream winds right now are unfortunately blowing directly over So Cal exasperating the fire situation.   These winds are being driven by a low pressure system driving into the Great Basin, AZ New Mexico - with high pressure locked in to the West.  Some relief later in the week but it looks like the region can expect on and off Santa Ana winds through the weekend.   The worst winds now, through Thursday.  

For Central and Nor Cal - windy yes, but we've had rain unlike So Cal - so our fire situation isn't anything to be concerned about.   The dry pattern looks to remain in place through the middle of next week - some hint that the ridge will break down late next week and we might get back into a wetter pattern.   Surf wise, well it's been quite solid and remains so today with swell running about 9@15 north of Bodega Bay, 6-8ft Bay Area south.   Swell direction around 290-293.   Pretty much looking at similar size waves the rest of the week, but then getting larger into the weekend as the winds pick up offshore for Nor Cal and generate some larger, short period stuff.   Cya in the water.