Updated Forecast - First offshore event of the season

Pattern change starting late Wednesday on - high pressure is going to set up in the Great Basin and bring our first offshore wind event of early Fall.  Windswell primary source of waves along with a small pulse of mid period northwest swell thru Wednesday - good for chest/head high waves - bigger at top winter breaks.  Wont probably see the affects of the offshore push until Thursday.  Towards the weekend we will see another pulse of long period northwest swell and a decent shot of southwest groundswell (200-240) building Friday and lasting thru the weekend.  Should be pretty nice conditions from Friday thru Sunday.  cya in the water.

Happy Autumn - First big northwest swell of the season…..

730pm tonight is the Autumn Equinox.

First large northwest swell will start to impact our Coast mid week - with forecasted deepwater heights 10-15ft.  This is due to a large, complex storm system out in the Gulf, which unfortunately will probably come ashore around the same time.  Rain is in the forecast - Wednesday, Thursday, possibly into Friday.  Winds will be south/southwest during as the front comes ashore, probably turn northwest behind and i'll be looking for any sign of an offshore wind event next weekend.  Check the winds this week - might be a few moments - plenty of swell in the water from mid week on.  Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Rain showers have ended across the region as an early season storm dropped some badly needed rain around the area.  Looks like we could see more rain mid/late next week as the N Pac is very active - fueled in part by warm water and energy around the Pacific Basin.  The solid southwest swell is winding down some tonight - but still decent with deepwater heights at 3-4 ft from 17 seconds.  Northwest swell is winding down as well - 4-5 ft at 11 seconds.  Look for the southwest to fade more Friday - with left over northwest windswell.  By late Saturday, a larger pulse of northwest swell is due to hit - pushing surf heights back in the head to overhead range thru Sunday.  Winds will highly variable the next few days - lightest early.  Doesn't look like any huge blow out but expect stronger winds each afternoon.  Plenty of surf on tap late Saturday thru Sunday.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast -

Good run of southern hemi swells and WNW swells this coming week.  Rain chances return to the region (from Sonoma, north) Wednesday into Thursday.  Possible swell from Hurricane Odile could hit next weekend if the track takes it up Baja and into our swell window mid week.  This would be a south/southeast swell with a pretty steep approach.

SW/SWW swell will develop tonight and stick around thru Wednesday - (195-220) - good for head high and better sets at south facing breaks.

New WNW swell shows Tuesday - (290-300) good for chest/head high waves at winter breaks.  Another WNW swell will come in late this week.  More on that to come.  The N Pac is getting active.

Winds this coming week look highly variable.  W to SW to NW - strongest NW winds next Friday.  Best bet is to check it - know your spots and wind direction and you'll find something to ride.  Should be plenty of swell in the water from Tuesday on.

Cya in the water.

4 ft at 17 from 300

First small northwest swell of the Fall hitting this am.  Mixing in with a long period southwest.  Cross up should be good at certain breaks.  Winds are light and forecast to stay pretty light - especially mornings as a thermal low sits right over California.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast - N Pac Wakes…..

Solid SW swell in the water - deep water showing 2ft at 20 from 200.  Decent NW windswell still around too at 5ft at 10-11 from 300+.  Issue is the south winds - eddy off the coast continues to spin fog and wind making a mess of things.  Will be hard to find some place clean to ride today as a result.  SW swell will peak over the weekend with possible head high and bigger waves at summer stand outs.  Winds will remain onshore - lightest for AM sessions.  By the middle of next week we will see our first small pulse of the season - probably run from around the 10th to the 15th - 290-300 degrees with deepwater 2-4 ft.  We may see the wind pattern shift by the start of next week - but only to more of a light northwest flow - no offshore events forecast yet.  Cya in the water.

SEPTEMBER!

Happy Labor Day and welcome to the 2014/2015 Fall/Winter surfing season on the Central and Northern California Coast.  You made it through another summer.  Cya in the water.

Marie Rocks, More Southwest Swell to continue

A summer swell for the ages - that's been the tale of Marie.  Reports up and down the CA Coast of point breaks, nooks, crannies that rarely roar to life in the winter, let alone summer, but that's what you get with a large hurricane swell directed well at CA.  Decent size continues today, will fade some into the weekend.  Still seeing 4-6 ft 12-13 sec from 160-180 - swell is turning more SW.  We will have a new southwest swell join the party over the weekend - from around 215, much smaller than the Marie swell with deepwater probably in the 2-3ft range.  Then, looks like we will see a bigger southwest swell move in during the middle of next week (Sep 4-5) with possible deepwater heights again of 4 ft.  17-19 seconds from 201-215.  All signs now continue to indicate we will have some form of El Nino this winter - the strength of which is still tbd.  More on that as we move into Fall.  Sep 1 marks the start of the Fall/Winter Season in Nor Cal.  You've made it through another summer.  Cya in the water.

Hurricane Marie

All eyes on Hurricane Marie tonight - a Category 5 - at present 500 miles south of the tip of Baja.  Winds are 120 kt with gusts to 140kt.  Marie is generating seas as high as 48ft.  Right now the storm is moving to the northwest and should send huge surf to So Cal beaches starting late tomorrow and a very powerful southerly swell for us mid week.   We've had swell from TS Lowell and Karina since mid week - and that's been in the 3-4 ft range deep water.  Expect the swell from Marie to be larger.  Right now look for swell to build late Wednesday and last through the upcoming weekend.  Starting out south/southeast 170-180 - then late in the week switching more south/southwest - 180-210.  Winds look fairly light most of the week - from the west and northwest - perhaps a touch more northwest wind Wed to Fri.  Cya in the water.

Tropical Swell for the weekend

TS storms Lowell and Karina are in the Nor Cal swell window and you can expect to see swell move in tomorrow from Lowell (180 degrees) with more southwest swell (180-210) from Karina later in the weekend.  The East Pac is very active with another system due to become a TS in the next 48 hours.  We should see waist to shoulder high surf with some bigger sets at spots with good southerly exposure. Fog and onshore winds remain - probably lightest in the mornings.  A storm system diving into the Great Basin over the weekend could bring some offshore winds to the far North Bay - but probably not enough at the surface to mix things out.  This pattern of tropical systems is a strong indication of how warm the ocean is throughout the Pacific Basin.  If both systems re curve to the northeast and link up with the westerly jet stream - we would see some enhancement and swell development in the Gulf later next week.  The energy is out there - now just really waiting on Fall to kick in.  Cya in the water.

4.5 ft at 14 sec

Early season northwest swell arrived last night - deep water showing 4-5 ft with periods 14 sec.  Winds are actually a bit east/offshore at some spots this morning.  Nice warm up for September.  cya in the water.

Early Signs…..

Signs of the coming season ahead this week.  Early season storm in the Gulf of Alaska has sent off a pulse (285-310) which is due to show Tuesday AM far North and Bay Area Tuesday PM (largest late in the day).  Probably good for chest high waves, maybe some bigger sets at breaks with a good window to the west/northwest.  Biggest waves found far north.  Swell should peak on Wednesday and then fade out.  NW windswell will be in the water the entire time so don't expect super clean conditions.  Fog, onshore winds remain as well with low pressure right off the coast increasing the depth of the marine layer.  Cya in the water.

August Looms - El Nino Update

August.  Transition month on the North Coast.  Buckeye trees are already turning and i actually saw a few local maples showing some very early color this morning as they give up on the dry summer and decide to toss in the towel with hopes for a wet Fall.

If you've been in the water lately, you've noticed how warm it is.  Unusually warm in fact this time of year.  The entire Pacific Basin remains much warmer than usual as our northwest wind machine has been very quiet.  This is a good thing, as high pressure, a dominant feature for the past three years in the Eastern Pacific is not strong.  Hoping that it doesn't regain momentum as we head into September so we can get some early storm development.  The book on this years El Nino is still being written.  For sure it doesn't look like a big event, could even end up a very non event - but everything is in far better shape than in anytime over the past three years.  Another month or two - and we will have a handle on the cards we will be dealt for the Fall/Winter Season.

In the meantime, windswell remains primary wave source with some signs of life down under for some new south/southwest swells as we move into August.  North Pacific still fairly active for late July, but not much swell pointed our way yet.  Cya in the water.

JULY - Dog Days

Hope you got some of that good south swell action over the past few days.  Certainly were some moments in the water at the right spots.  Back to dribble today and probably for the rest of the week with onshore winds and windswell the rule.  Look for another smaller run of southwest swell towards the middle of the month.  North Pacific still remains fairly active for summer - and predictions of El Nino remain as water temps continue to remain warmer than normal.  Next month or two is critical to see if we will actually go into a new El Nino event for the fall/winter.  Next post in August - September 1 is getting closer each day!  cya in the water.

Waves - Rare off season swell

Buoys are 10-14 ft at 12-14 seconds from 290 plus this am - quite a surprise as this swell came in much bigger than models indicated a week ago.  Mixing in with a decent southwest swell (for around these parts) - so you might find something to ride today if you know where to look.  Winds not ideal and won't be for most spots.  Pushing into July - only two months to go until Fall.  The North Pacific has been far more active than usual this summer - which you can attribute to the warming Pacific.  Hopefully this trend continues for the next 45-60 days which will give us a pretty good indication of how strong this potential El Nino event is actually going to be.  Cya in the water.

JUNE

Blah.  That's all I can say about June right now.  If you have the time - travel someplace warm.  Talk to you in July.

Hurricane Amanda - Happy Memorial Day

Sunday morning.  The first hurricane of the season is firing up in the East Pacific.  Hurricane Amanda is the second strongest system on record (behind Adolph in 2011) with sustained winds at 140kts.  Could be a harbinger of things to come as El Nino continues to show signs of intensification in the Pacific Basin with warm water throughout.  The warm water exception of course is along our coast - where northwest winds have been howling offshore and the water is a balmy 47-50 degrees from SF north.  As for surf - north windswell and background sw swell the rule for the weekend.  Look for a stronger pulse of sw swell to come in next week.  Winds will remain from the northwest and you'll have to pick and choose your sessions.  I'll continue to provide spotty surf forecasts and updates on El Nino through the end of August.  Starting September 1, I will return to more regular updates.  Cya in the water.

MAY

Hope you got some surf this past week - we certainly had some nice conditions for late April.  Winds are cranking back up again and we will continue to see small/medium sized northwest swell and windswell through the period.  Conditions will be cleanest at breaks sheltered from the wind.  Nothing that exciting from the southern hemi - just background swell for the coming week.  Small chance of rain Monday, but primarily for the North Bay.  Cya in the water.

MID APRIL UPDATE

Spring.  Mostly onshore winds and fog already the rule, sheltered spots will be the most favorable for riding waves - but you'll always find windows at other breaks as high pressure ebbs and flows around the region.  We do have a strong late season storm developing in the Gulf of Alaska and that will send a good size swell train our way late Sunday into Monday/Tuesday.  Swell will peak Monday with deep water surf heights forecast in the 6-10ft range - from 280-310.  Good for double overhead ++ surf at north facing breaks.  Chance of rain Monday and Tuesday.  No real clean wind forecast for the next week.  WNW winds the rule.  There's a lot of talk about El Nino coming - even the tools in the main stream are talking about a Super Nino - but you have to discount what they say since they know very little about weather.  That said - water temps are much warmer across the Pacific Basin.  We certainly appear to be transitioning to an El Nino pattern.  The next two months will be critical to give us an indication of just how strong this will be.  If we do push into an El Nino - looking for stronger south swells, more activity in the East Pacific/Mexico for hurricanes and TS's.  Then, next Fall, we would likely see an increase in North/West Pacific storm/swell activity.  It would be nice to have a strong summer of south swells - just have to wait and see what develops.  Cya in the water.

APRIL -

Orion setting early in the western sky is always a sign the seasons are changing.  It's April, and by all accounts by now we're usually strafed by northwest winds and cold water - but so far this spring, knock wood, water temps aren't too bad.  And we've been blessed with small, but fairly consistent swells from the Gulf of Alaska.  That should continue through the weekend.  We also have a small run of back to back southwest swells from down under as the South Pacific begins to stir.  Weak storm tonight will briefly shift winds to the south and then strong to the northwest late Friday and Saturday before easing up early next week.  Look for deepwater swell from 270-305 at 4-7 ft through next Tuesday.  Might see light AM winds for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  Stuff to ride, keep an eye on the winds and know your spots.  Southwest swell will be from 190-220 through next Thursday.  Cya in the water.