Eddie Would Go

Ocean Beach, Sunday past. Eddie is a friend of the Wasab and many others in our crew. He's not 17 either. Nice down the line on a sweet little wave.

Forecast for wk of 9-28

Morning - hope you got some waves this weekend. Bunch of spots looked good yesterday at Ocean Beach with plenty of size mid beach. Weather pattern is changing today with a low pressure system dropping out of the Gulf of AK. Look for NW winds to really ramp up over the next two days - increasing NW Windswell and probably tumbling our nice warm water temps. Look for NW winds 15-17 kts Tuesday, increasing to 21+ kts on Wed. By Thursday, this low pressure system will drop into the Great Basin and should give us a shot of offshore flow Thurs/Fri mornings. If nothing else, winds should be light and variable near shore. Look for rising NW windswell Tues/Wed - shorter period, choppy from a pretty steep angle. By Thursday, a new NW groundswell should fill in from 310-330 - looking good for well overhead sets (perhaps larger) at top NW facing breaks. This storm is still coming together so i'll update more mid week. Cya in the water.

Swell from Typhoon Choi Wan Begins.....

Quick update tonight - swell from Typhoon Choi Wan is starting to show to our north - 8-9 at 2o seconds. Solid. Look for swell to increase all day Saturday and get quite large before dark. Sunday/Monday - super strong swell with double to triple overhead waves at standout NW facing breaks. Swell will start in the 285-300 range and then move more into 310-315 later Sunday into Monday. Winds still a bit tricky, but should be light to variable near shore for the AM sessions. Cya in the water.

Stubborn Marine Layer - Typhoon Choi-Wan Weekend Swell

Evening - marine layer refuses to budge. When high pressure set up in the Great Basin and a thermal low set up in the Central Valley over the weekend - we didn't get enough movement West from the Central Valley thermal low to essentially squash the marine air and allow the offshore flow to migrate all the way to the ocean. So we have cool air, dense fog, light south winds nearshore - but inland temps are soaring. We might get a north gradient late in the week - if this ramps up - it could be strong enough to scour the low clouds and fog out. As for the weekend - Typhoon Choi Wan merged with a frontal low in the Gulf of AK - and turned into a super system - pumping out long period WNW swell (285-305) for the upcoming weekend. Swell will be on the rise Friday night, with head high to well overhead surf Saturday afternoon and overhead to double overhead + for Sunday (for NW facing breaks like Ocean Beach). Early buoy readings from the Western Aleutians were showing deep water swell at 22ft 17 seconds. Between now and the weekend - we still have a small WNW swell in the water and some pulses of SW. So still plenty of surf to ride. Cya in the water.

Arctic Surf Film

This looks like an interesting flick.

Swell, hot temps, offshores****

Evening. Hot weather rolling in and will stick around all week. Looks like the warmest days near the Coast will be Monday, Tuesday. Still some fog around tonight - but that should get scoured out Monday. We have plenty of swell around - back to back mid period WNW swells filling in tonight and sticking around thru Thursday. Swell direction 285-300 - mostly 10-12 second periods. By the weekend - still looking for swell from Typhoon Choi-Wan, which right now is curving NE and looks to make a run east across the North Pacific most of the week. As a result, by next weekend we could see a nice shot of WNW swell with longer periods. I'll update mid week. Good week to call in sick. cya in the water. **** - Note on weather conditions near the Coast - s/sw flow and fog along with a very weak onshore gradient is keeping things cool and foggy along the coast. This marine inversion appears to be trapped under the high pressure building aloft. Temps may be much cooler than forecast near the coast - unless the offshore push takes hold all the way to the ocean. That is the forecast - but remains to be seen if it develops.

Forecast Video 9-17

Hey Everyone, trying out a video forecast - check it out!

Current NW fading slowly, ramps back up Thursday

Current WNW swell is fading today and tomorrow - but very solid this am with buoys reading 8-9 ft at 11 from 300. Winds are light/variable. Probaby pick up some from the West in the pm. Right now our next swell is due in Thursday/Friday with deep water swell projected at 8-9 ft at 12-14 sec from 289-296. Winds look to stay more on the light side all week for the morning sessions, maybe a bit of funk here and there - but no major blow. Might see a light offshore event starting Friday and lasting thru Sunday if forecast stays on track. All n' all - something to surf for the next 5-7 days - size, shape and winds will depend on your location. The storm track in the North Pacific is active - welcome to the 2009-2010 Fall/Winter surf season in Northern California! Get some.

Here it comes...Updated Friday AM

Buoys as of Fri AM - Central Alaska - 31 ft at 14 sec, Papa Buoy (600nm offshore) 15 ft at 14 sec. Solid. Weekend swell is on the way. Saturday afternoon is when the real deal should start with head high plus waves later in the day. Sunday - expect some double overhead sets as this swell peaks. Winds look to stay light (we had a nice glass off tonight) thru the weekend. We also have a few weather systems headed our way - with the system late Sunday into Monday giving us our first chance of rain this Fall. Long range models continue to show storm activity in the Gulf of Alaska next week giving us more swell. More on that later in the weekend.
If you like the big stuff - I think Sunday may be your kind of day at places like Ocean Beach. Cya in the water.

Tracking Decent NW for Weekend

Just shaping up tonight - good WNW swell gaining traction out at the dateline. Look for long period forerunners on the rise Friday - up to 6ft at 17 from 290 (deep water swell height) with period dropping some on Saturday - 7ft at 13-14 sec. This storm is still coming together but this should be a decent pulse of swell for the weekend. Winds looking light Friday/Saturday mornings - especially for the AM sessions. More later in week on this. Fall pattern continues to take shape.

Small NW/Windswell pulses to continue

Evening. Steep angled NW swell filled into today - came in later than forecast. At it's peak mid day, some good size sets were coming in at NW facing beaches - head to several feet overhead. Winds never did quite make it full offshore today, as the low pressure system that moved into the Great Basin lost some gusto. Our current NW swell is winding down tomorrow, but thru mid week there will be plenty of waves about as it combines with N windswell. Wind conditions for the remainder of the week are a tough call. Mainly look for WNW to W/SW winds each day. Lightest in the morning hours. Right now Wed/Thurs mornings look like the best windows for variable winds for am sessions. Should be something to ride each day, just not super clean. I am tracking a small pulse of NW swell for next weekend - (from 290-305) and then a potentially bigger NW swell for Mid September - more on that later this week. We do have some background SW swells in the water all week as well - but much of this energy will be lost under the dominant NW push. Cya in the water.

September!

Well, we have officially made it through another Nor Cal Summer. It's Labor Day weekend and for nor cal surfers, we're like little children awaiting Christmas. Before the weekend outlook - a quick story. You know back in the day, before buoy, wind, weather, cams, swell reports and everything else surfy online - you normally got up in the morning and drove to the beach, taking your chances. I grew up in So Cal, surfing Malibu - and you always got your report from the guy coming your way on the canyon road out to the Bu. A simple thumbs up or down - made your day. I've noticed, driving the roads of Marin - people don't do that much anymore. So I was surprised last weekend when I had my hand out the window with a simple inquiry - I got the old school thumbs up response. Probably another old school type like me that remembers that common stoke. It was cool. As for the weekend - we have a strong low pressure system driving out of the Gulf of Alaska which will bring rain to the NW (and extreme Nor Cal). For us, it's going to cool us down, bring in the fog and the winds for the first part of the weekend at least. Swell looks small today, Friday and then we might start seeing an increase Saturday into Monday. Right now could be looking at surf in the 5-7 ft range at 11-13 sec from 300-302. Depending on how this storm comes together, might be a tad bigger. I think Monday could be the best day for winds - if the storm barrels into the Great Basin we might get some NE/N winds. I'll update Sunday. That's it for now. cya in the water.

New NW Swell arriving

Deep water buoy shows new NW - 4 ft at 14 sec from 310. Problem is we have onshore winds with it and forecast for most of the week. Things dont look very clean. Size will increase during the day with overhead sets at northwest facing breaks. Swell sticks around Tuesday - then fades Wednesday. Put away those party hats for now - as things in both the north and southern pac have slowed again with not much headed our way for the upcoming holiday weekend. Hopefully, it's just a brief break in the action. cya in the water.

Update on Swells - Size Downgraded

Morning - very clean conditions with light to offshore flow. Two swells in the water, SE swell from TS Ignacio at 4.0 ft 11 sec from 170. West swell at 4.5 at 12 from 275. The large swell that was suppose to hit this am - really dropped off as it approached the coast. I still expect some decent size tomorrow with some overhead sets at NW facing beaches - but not quite as macking as initially forecast by models. As for Monday/Tuesday swell - that too looks smaller right now and i'll update on that event over the weekend. If you can get out today someplace - it looks super fun. Onshore flow looks to pick up again as the remnants from Ignacio get caught up in the northern jetstream and blow east of us. This will probably happen over the weekend. cya in the water.

Two More NW Swells to follow

Next "West" shot in the water - looks to hit Friday with deep water swell in the 8-9 at 15sec from 284. Pretty solid. Saturday, period drops to 13 sec, but still size. Look for another NW swell next Monday - deepwater forecast at 7-8 at 15 sec from 302. Tuesday similar size, period drops to 13 sec. Period and size drop out Wed to 6-7 at 12 sec. After that - things may calm down just a bit. However - the pattern is setting up shop in the North Pacific and with El Nino fueling storm development - I think we're in for a very active Fall. **One note - we still have pretty decent south swell in the water all this week too - overshadowed a bit by the run of NW, but for breaks that do well on the cross up in swells - some pretty fun surf. cya in the water.

More Gulf of Alaska NW Swell On Way

Damn, that's a nice picture isn't it? Nice low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska with another storm forming behind it. Look for surf to build from this first storm Wednesday afternoon - with overhead sets - continuing into Thursday morning, with biggest waves early. Look for surf in the 6-8 ft range at 13 sec/dropping to 12 sec on Thursday. Next up, similar size swell pushes in for next Saturday and then even bigger West swell forecast for Monday 8-31. Keep in mind surf heights may change as each event gets closer depending on how the storms develop. Winds still really iffy right now with fog in place and forecast to be on and off all next week. With some hints at some offshore events mid week - but don't count on it. If we're lucky, winds will at least stay light SW to W for the morning sessions. The pattern in the Gulf is setting up and now we need some of these storm systems to come ashore in the NW and dive into the Great Basin to set up some real offshore wind events for September.

Gulf of Alaska Opening For Business

Say it with me - FALL- ahhh. And as if on cue, we've got back to back NW swells forecast for the weekend and mid next week. First pulse due in Saturday, peaking Sunday. Steep angle - 300-315 and mid period stuff - but should be good for head high + sets. Second pulse, moves in next Tuesday/Wednesday - similar angle 300-315 +, may have a bit longer period. This second swell might get a bit bigger too - head high ++. Making things even more interesting, starting tomorrow late we've got a series of back to back SW/S swells to cross things up. Looking for pretty decent deep water swell energy in the 2-4 ft range with periods from 19 to 15 seconds - over the next 9-10 days. Angle of approach will range from 200 to 190 on the south swells. Winds look pretty light for morning sessions through Monday. SW to S to W winds - but in the 5-10kt range. No offshore pattern to take shape - but no blow out either. Should be plenty to surf for the next 7 days and beyond. Cya in the water.

South stirs, perhaps some NW swell next week

Signs of life for the weekend - look for a new SW swell to start filling in over Friday - with most size late in the day. Look for waist high stuff, but getting into the chest/head high range over the weekend. Direction 190-200. Look for a stronger pulse of s swell (180-190) around the 27th thru the 28th of next week. Long range charts also now show a NW Swell for around Aug 23 to Aug 27. Too early to call right now for size/period - but I will keep an eye on it and have an update over the weekend. No real offshores in sight this week - but light s winds, potentially right through the weekend. So some bump, perhaps a little funk here and there - but at least it's not blowing NW at 25kts. cya in the water.

Uneventful week ahead.....

Well those offshores forecast for this past weekend never fully developed. Fog with a southerly surge ruled the coastal weather. As we move into the new week - looks like mainly windswell through next weekend. Winds will diminish overall as we move through the period. So am sessions might feature some light to variable winds nearshore. Looking at the models in the northern hemi, nothing of interest right now. Southern hemi looks to get more active as we move later into August, with the promise of some better long period SW swells due in late in the month. But right now that's just a pipe dream from the models. Until then, enjoy the windswell and hopefully lighter than normal winds. On an El Nino note - final confirmation of the strength of the upcoming event is probable around the 3rd week in September. Most forecasters (including NOAA) agree we're going into an El Nino event - but the actual strength is still to be determined.

Offshores for the weekend

Early Fall pattern starting to establish itself. About a month early. Low pressure system will dive into the NW tomorrow and then into the Great Basin over the weekend setting up a northerly flow over our area. How much winds turn to the NE, still remains to be seen, but winds will definitely be blowing out of the north thru Sunday. Swell wise - windswell will be the main feature in the water, larger than it's been - forecasting 6-8, 9-11 ft stuff Sat/Sun. Short period - probably in the 8-9 sec range. Models have been hinting at some small NW swell early next week - but i've not seen much evidence yet this will develop. So for now, we're kinda in between summer and fall - nothing major from either hemi coming yet - but it's getting closer! cya in the water.