UPDATED FORECAST 3-26

Last week of March.   Chance of rain later today (it's raining further north) and then overnight this system will exit giving way to northwest winds on Monday and northwest swell 9ft at 11 seconds.  Expect swell size to continue at 9-11ft with short periods pretty much through next Friday, along with northwest winds 15-25kts most of next week - getting stronger late week as we are seeing the Pacific High start to set up for Spring.   Could see a minor system brush the region mid week with chance of rain, beyond that - dry weather will prevail.   Spots protected from the northwest wind will be your best shot at anything clean and rideable.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 3-17

Storm door opens this weekend with rain on and off forecast through next Friday.   Strongest storm of the cycle will be next Thursday to Friday.   Looking for mainly south to southwest winds through the period as well with small to mid size west/northwest swells propagating through our waters.   Should be waves to ride - just check the winds.   Winter is not done with us yet.  Cya in the water.  

MARCH 11, UPDATED FORECAST

Spring ahead tonight and set your clocks forward.   Winds are light near shore at the moment but that will change later as northwest winds are blowing offshore around 15-18kts.   Steep angled swell - 5-7ft at 10 seconds from 315.   Looking a lot like spring.   Small west to northwest swell forecast through the period at 4-6ft 10-12 seconds along with northwest winds pretty much through next Wednesday.   Winds might be lighter for AM sessions - doubtful for PM sessions.   Next chance of rain might be mid week - north of Marin - but the North Pacific Spring High Pressure is looking to set up and might put an end to what has been a very historic rainy season in CA.   Cya in the water.

MARCH 1ST

Generally nice conditions expected through Friday with lighter morning winds and small west to northwest swells.  While northwest winds will blow over the outside waters, AM sessions like this morning should feature northeast to offshore winds, although a small change in the pressure gradient could bring the northwest winds closer to shore.   Afternoons will for sure see an increase in winds.  Swell should stay around 5-7ft through Saturday.   The high pressure ridge will begin to break down by the weekend with rain returning to the north early in the weekend and through the Bay Area by Sunday.   Longer range models continue to show a wet pattern returning for next week.  So get these nice days while you can.  As we are starting March, you can generally expect an uptick in northwest winds in general as we move through the month and the East Pacific high tries to establish itself for spring/summer.   Remains to be seen when that happens and I think we could be in for a fairly wet spring given the winter we've had.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST, 2-25, MARCH LOOMS.....

Mid period northwest swell rolling in at 6ft 14 seconds.   Winds are blowing offshore - east to southeast as a storm system off our coast is dropping down from south of Oregon.  Cold rain showers and low elevation snow will be possible over the next 36 hours or so.  South winds will blow tonight giving way to north winds on Sunday.  Thereafter, it will start to look a lot like Spring with northwest winds and smaller northwest swell through next Wednesday.  Swell will hover around 4-6 ft.   March 1st is the official end of the "good" surfing season up here, but I suspect we will plenty of decent days in the weeks ahead as the Pacific isn't done with CA yet.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - 2-18

Northwest winds are howling - big chunky northwest swell/wind swell at around 12-14ft with 11-12 second intervals.  Winds may drop down some tomorrow but another very strong storm will be knocking on our door late Sunday, south winds will ramp with heavy rain through Tuesday.   Looking beyond the next 4-5 days - might see high pressure re-establish itself around next Wednesday or Thursday.  We are moving towards March 1, the traditional end of the "good" wave season up here and the start of northwest winds and diminishing swell.  However, this has been anything but a normal winter and we could be in for a very wet spring and more swell than usual.  In the meantime - always spots along the coast to ride no matter what the wind and swell is doing - as well as how desperate one might be to get wet (i happen to be very desperate for surf today, so i'll probably hit it somewhere).   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 2-13

Few more days of dry weather until the next cycle of winter storms slams into California.  Fairly light winds and small/mid size surf as well.  Look for the winds to pick up from the south/southeast through the day on Wednesday.  Then it stays unsettled through early next week.  Get it while you can.

UPDATED FORECAST 2-7

No surf for you this week.   Storms lined up across the Pacific will continue through Friday.  The weekend looks like we might dry out - northwest winds and good size swell so certain spots will work.   Until then, get some work done.

UPDATED FORECAST 2-1

Pretty amazing few days of surf coming to an end.  Storm system offshore is going to bring rain back into the forecast - on and off through about Friday and maybe into Saturday and Sunday.  Unfortunately, south to southwest winds are going to rule the region through Sunday.  For breaks that favor those winds - there will be waves.  Don't see any change in the winds through Monday at this point.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 1-25

The XXL swell from the past few days continues to wind down today but still offering up overhead to double overhead sets this morning at north facing breaks.  Meanwhile, a new, long period swell from the west northwest is already in the water and will move into our outer waters tonight and be in full force tomorrow.  Look for deepwater 12ft (bigger further north) and long periods initially, (20 sec) to start.  Swell will fade out through the week and then we should have mid size surf on tap for the upcoming weekend.  Winds look pretty decent the rest of the week as well.  Might see a slight turn to the south tonight as a very weak system to our north brushes the state with very light showers.  Nothing like we've seen over the past month.  Then winds should stay light for mornings in particular through the period.  Next "pattern" change for rain looks about mid week.   Cya in the water.

PAPA Buoy - 42ft at 17 seconds

All my years doing this blog and before - i can't remember seeing a buoy reading that big at our far offshore buoys.  42ft at 17sec.  That's deepwater swell.  Think about that for a few moments.  Think about that size wave at Mavericks - hitting the reef coming out of deep water.  How big the face?  80, 100ft?  125ft?  Swell will decay as it starts to hit the next buoys - but it's going to be pretty friggin large late tomorrow and Saturday throughout the region.  NOAA still saying 25ft deepwater or so - pretty damn big.  Unfortunately it will be a a complete turd fest with ongoing rain, southwest to west winds - howling rain.  Big, large unruly surf.  Will be fun to watch.

UPDATED FORECAST - MLK DAY

Winds are fairly light today as a new northwest swell has filled in overnight.  Deepwater is around 7-8ft at 15 sec from 295 plus.  This is the last dry day for the weekend ahead as another series of strong storms will come ashore with powerful south winds and very large swell by the weekend.  In fact NOAA forecasting surf heights 20ft plus and even larger the further north you go Friday through Sunday.  Plenty of swell in the water before that - just winds the issue - but there might some spots that light up if you know where to look this week.  Cya in the water.

UPDATE FORECAST - JAN 9TH

Major storm has exited the region with just some scattered showers around the area this morning.  Short lived break as another storm is due to arrive late tonight through tomorrow bringing more heavy rain and wind.  Right now looks like we have to wait until next weekend for a break and high pressure to return.  Additionally, morning winds look like they might be decent Friday and Saturday with swell dropping into the head high to a bit overhead at best winter breaks.  Until then, get some work done.  Swell is going to jump up mid week again but winds will probably thrash it.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - BEWARE THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER

Wet, windy, small, very small surf - unusually so when we have this much storm activity out in the Pacific - but many of these systems are lacking a real core low pressure spinning for days off shore in a favorable location so we're left with smaller windswell.  That won't change much going into the weekend other than we will see an up swing in south to southwest storm windswell as the next series of systems come roaring ashore Saturday into Monday.  This atmospheric river event (which is the new name for "Pineapple Express," is going to point a fire hose of water at some point on the North to Central Coast of CA - still trying to pin point where and timing but wherever it lands over the weekend you can expect plenty of rainfall.  Should be a real shit fest for surf over the weekend - but with south winds and some swell there are spots that will work and you probably know which spots those are.  Cya in the water.

NEW YEARS WEEKEND FORECAST

Our nice conditions of the past week will slowly fade going into tomorrow as a pair of very cold storms drop due south out of BC, bringing with them strong north winds, scattered showers and a chance of very low elevation snow over the hills and ranges of Nor Cal.  Extremely cold morning temps will follow into next week and it will be very blustery overall.  Surf wise - 8-10ft deepwater continues this morning with light north to northeast winds.  Saturday, surf will stay around 10-12ft at 13 seconds.  Winds will increase Saturday, 20-30 knots. Same swell size for Sunday.  Northwest winds forecast Sunday at 20-30 knots so look for a heavy dose of windswell/chop over the main swell.  Water temps have already been very cold and look for them to tumble a few more degrees after this weekends wind event.  Have a safe New Years and cya in the water.

MERRY CHRISTMAS

East winds on this Christmas morning and very cold temps.  Swell is 9ft @11-12 seconds from 300.  Swell fades more today and tomorrow will feature east winds and smaller surf.  Look for 5-6ft at 12 seconds tomorrow.  Swell will build again Tuesday - 9ft at 16 and stay above that height through Thursday.  Winds most of next week look pretty nice for morning sessions - light east to north winds. Cold air temps.  High pressure setting up over us for a bit of an extended run, at least until late next weekend or so when models forecast a wet pattern to return.  All the best this holiday season to you and yours - looks like a fun week of surf ahead.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - 12-19

North to northeast winds are providing offshore winds this morning and most spots.  New swell has been filling in overnight as the old one fades, buoys to the north are 8-9ft at 19 seconds.  Swell will build all day.  An incoming weather system will bring a slight chance of rain from Sonoma north tonight and winds will shift to the south/southwest briefly and then back to north on Tuesday.  Swell will build as a new swell train rolls in that evening at 12ft at 20 seconds (deepwater).  Period drops on Wednesday to 17 seconds, but size remains 11-13ft.  That swell fades and yet another swell rolls in about Friday - pushing heights back up into the 12-15ft range.  Better chance of rain around Thursday. After that front passes tomorrow winds should be fairly light near shore until Friday when winds are forecast to increase out of the north at 20-30 knots.  Temperatures are going to moderate over the next few days so mornings won't be quite so frosty.  So plenty of waves on tap, check the winds.  Happy Holidays to everyone and cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 12-15

Strong storm system with plenty of rain is roaring ashore today and will affect out weather for the next 24 hours or so.  Considering all the low pressure circulations offshore you might expect larger surf - but that will stay fairly mid size through the weekend and first part of next week.  Look for NW swell at 8-9 ft at 10secs Friday, and then a new pulse of NW swell on Saturday at 4-6 @17 sec.  Dropping Sunday to 3-4 ft.  That size sticks around Monday/Tuesday.  Mostly north to northwest winds the next 3-5 days too as fronts moving through the upper flow.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 12-9

Rain off and on for the next week and possibly beyond.  South winds as fronts come ashore, north to northwest winds as they pass.  Biggest swell thru about next Tuesday looks like Sat/Sun - deep water 8-9 ft at 13 seconds - the rest of the time, smaller than that and quite a bit smaller than it's been around here for a while now.  Check the winds, there will be spots working.

UPDATED FORECAST - 12-3

New, long period swell is filling in - right now most buoys reading 8-10 ft at 18-20 seconds.  Winds are blowing north/northeast to northwest depending on location.  Water temps have chilled off some with all the wind over the outer waters.  Hovering around 54 now.  Swell will build all day and be quite solid by late PM.  Large tomorrow as well, deepwater 10-12 ft at 16 seconds.  Gradual fade into the middle of next week but plenty to ride.  High pressure is influencing our weather for the next few days.  Slight chance of rain very far north late Sunday and then again around Wednesday.  Biggest headline will be the much colder temps next week as the airmass coming down from the north has it's origins in Alaska.  Longer range is showing a return to wet weather perhaps late next week.  Check the winds, cya in the water.