UPDATED FORECAST FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND

 Gale warnings up through Thursday AM as strong high pressure is creating north winds over the outer waters.   Have not really seen the buoys respond to the wind swell forecasts, possibly because the heaviest winds are over land.  On the horizon we have a long period west/north swell due in and long period southeast swell for the rest of the week.  The west swell should be in late Thursday night, Friday - deepwater possible at 2-4 ft @19 seconds - biggest north of Bodega.  The south will roll in first late Thursday Santa Cruz south, then Bay Area and further north Friday into the weekend and beyond, couple pulses of this swell coming.  Potentially looking at 3 ft @19 seconds, good south facing breaks should be head high plus on sets.   We could see the south swell action linger on to around the 7th of Sept.  Winds will dial back into the weekend and switch from the south, we also have a early season weather system coming in which will bring rain to far northern CA, with chance amounts down to around Sonoma County.   Water temps have plummeted back into the low 50s with all this wind over the past week.   Cya in the water.  

SLEEPER SOUTH.....

New southeast New Zealand swell filled in today, came in bigger than most models forecasted - 3-4@17 sec - deepwater from 184.   Swell should stick around through Monday.   Winds are forecast to veer northwest over the weekend - but with the fog bank sticking around, near shore winds potentially light in the am's and then picking up in the afternoons as fog pulls back.   More south swell on the charts for early September and waiting on the N Pacific to get going.   Cya in the water. 

HILARY SWELL FIZZLES.....

Quick update on Hilary swell - never really made it around Pt Conception - and what did is passing by the rest of CA short of a few dribbles for Santa Cruz.    Good size wind swell is tracking into Nor CA waters this am 8-11ft at 10 sec, steep angle - 320 plus.   Watching a couple more smaller south swells for mid to late week.   More to come, cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST - HURRICANE HILARY

New shorter period Gulf/Wind swell showing north of Jenner this morning - 8-10ft @9-10 seconds, steep angle - 315 plus degrees.  Most of this swell will by pass spots south of Bodega Bay.  All eyes to the south as Hurricane Hilary makes its approach.  LA has its first ever Tropical Storm Warning hoisted and Hilary will be the first tropical system to make land fall to our south since 1939!   But what about swell for Central/Nor Cal?   Because the storm is hugging Baja and the strongest winds are on the East side of the system, super steep angled southerly swell will begin to migrate north through the weekend.   I'm talking super steep - 150-165 degrees which will miss most of our coast.   However, given the size of the storm and sea heights, good south swell spots will no doubt pull in some energy Sunday night through Tuesday morning.   How big, hard to say just yet - certainly So Cal will be quite large at times but also very windy/stormy.  For us, Monday looks like the best day, deep water potentially going 3-5 ft @ 14-16 seconds.    Heavy rain to our south with major flooding looks likely, some potential for rain Santa Cruz north to Pt Arena, but very light amounts.  Bigger issue will be potential for thunderstorms and more dry lightening which has sparked a whole host of fires in Trinity, Humboldt and Del Norte counties.   Very dynamic period coming up - especially with a low pressure system parked off the West Coast due to move ashore, Hilary and a steering ridge of high pressure to our east.  Water temps very warm upper 50s to low 60s - last cold water remnants of La Niña are gone.  The Papa Buoy, (600nm from Eureka) one of the offshore buoys has stopped reporting this past week - so NOAA will have to pull and repair at some point.   Be a bummer to have that off line as fall/winter starts as it's a reliable indicator of the size of incoming swell trains.  Cya in the water!  

UPDATED FORECAST - 8-16

 Interesting forecast for the next week or so.  First off, the N Pac is active and we will have another shot of shorter period, good size wind swell starting Friday - lasting into Sunday - deep water from 6-11ft - larger north of Bodega Bay.   N winds tick back up starting Friday night, lasting through Sunday.   South swell fades some Thursday, then ticks back up Friday to Sunday which might include some hurricane swell from a Hurricane Fernanda which is about 900 miles south of San Diego.   There is a bigger tropical system likely turning into a hurricane over the next 24 hours which will track right up Baja (parallel to Baja) starting Monday 8-21.   The first tropical swell from Fernanda will just mix in with existing southern hemisphere swells to give things a boost - that 2nd tropical swell, if it develops as forecast - could end up being pretty solid if it gets some good purchase over the open ocean and climbs in the CA swell window.   Better idea on that by the weekend.   With El Niño fully pushing now i  expect the remainder of the East Pacific Hurricane season will be quite active.   Get some, cya in the water.  

FIRST NORTHWEST SWELL OF THE SEASON.....

 Very early northwest swell is slowly filling in this morning - coming in a bit bigger than models had forecast - 7-8ft @13-14 seconds from 299.   Smaller south of Bodega Bay at the moment - 3-4 ft.   Meanwhile, New Zealand South Swell keeps giving - 2.2 ft @17 from 200.  Look for very light winds today through Thursday as high pressure is overhead - with an uptick towards some northwest winds this coming weekend, but that might be overdone, or at least staying over the outer waters.   Sure looking and feeling a lot like early fall!   South swell should stick around most of the week.   Northwest swell to slow fade into Wednesday and then might see another pulse by next Saturday.   Keeping an eye on a Hurricane Fernanda which is moving into our swell window to the north & west of Baja with sustained winds of 95kts and gusts to 110kts.   Could see some steep angle swell from that system mid to late week.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 8-11

 Screenshot from of an early season storm moving through the Gulf of Alaska - which is going to give us a pulse of northwest swell early next week.  Will be on the small side, mid period - likely deepwater swell 4-5ft at 13sec from 307 deg.   Not unusual to see storm activity in mid August with a building El Niño, a sign of things to come most likely.   Until then, waiting for a southwest New Zealand swell to hit the coastal waters later today (south) and most likely through the day on Saturday from Santa Cruz north.   Still expect that swell to be around 2-3 ft (deep water) periods 16-17 sec to start and leveling off 14-15 sec from 220 deg.  Winds may flex a bit from the northwest today and tonight - north of Bodega, but then settle in everywhere on the light side through Tuesday.   We may be coming to a point where we see the departure of the northwest winds for good, especially if we quickly transition to a fall set up with incoming systems to the northwest and offshore flow.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 8-8 - EL NINO MACHINE BEGINS AGAIN......

 The large scale mechanics of a building El Niño, stalled for a few weeks, has rapidly started up again in the Pacific.   Sea surface temps (SSTs) are warming quickly in two key regions that weather forecasters use to predict the strength of an El Niño - Nino 1.2 and Nino 3.4.   Storm production in theory should pick up and we do have a new storm in the Southeast Pacific sending a swell up for late week as well as a very interesting storm forecast in the North Pacific resulting in swell building potentially late next weekend into the following week.   While the activity in the South Pacific looks to continue to ramp up through late August, the building El Niño might just launch us right into fall swells for CA.   Look for this New Zealand south swell to start showing late Thursday, but best and biggest Friday through Sunday.   Nothing epic, but that corridor down under is usually a good direction for us - 210-220 deg.  Deep water swell should max around 2-2.5ft.   Winds look to wind down some through the week, which might help the swell hold together as it comes around Pt Conception for points north on the CA coast.   More on the Gulf action later this week as the storm comes together.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST 8-3 - first hints of new south showing

 Don't get overly excited, but seeing some forerunners of a new south starting to build offshore at 2-3@20 seconds, from 200 plus degrees.   This is a swell that developed in the Tasman Sea and should provide a bit of relief over the next few days and a couple pulses run in and overlap.   Probably won't see anything over 2-3ft at the outer buoys, so it's small wave gear material for sure.   The El Niño pump has now restarted - so it will be interesting to see what develops over the next few weeks.   Wind wise for us the next few days - more of the same - northwest blows each day - small craft advisory up through late Friday - so breezy, but south facing spots will be more protected from the wind.   Cya in the water.  

AUGUST 1

 Late summer, September will be here soon enough.  We are waiting for the very large global ocean and air mechanisms, in this case El Niño, to shift into high gear and prime the pumps for swell production for the southern hemisphere spring and the northern hemisphere fall.   Until that starts to happen, and seeing signs of it now, we won't have much to ride in CA for the next week or more.  We are also locked in this low pressure bias in the N Pac and very strong high pressure ridge to our east over the southwest US - which is just enough of a tug of war to keep strong northwest winds in check, just enough to mess up the surf but not enough to create the usual summer wind swell pattern we get on the north coast.  Large pool of cold water off CA and Baja, remnants of La Niña are showing signs of retreat, once that is gone surface temps in almost the entire Pacific Basin will be warm to very warm.   Watch and wait, cya in the water.