PLENTY OF SWELL ON TAP, CLEAN CONDITIONS

Old west/northwest swell fading out this am at 7ft 11 seconds, new swell loading up at far northern buoys - 9-10 ft at 20 seconds.   That swell will fill in all day and be solid by tomorrow morning.   Winds are offshore pretty much up and down the coast as high pressure rules the day.  No rain in sight through most of next week until the pattern breaks down potentially next weekend.  Until then, look for clean conditions especially for AM sessions with swell gradually fading by around next Wednesday.   Beach breaks should be pretty fun from Monday to Wednesday.   Cya in the water.

ANOTHER BIG WEST SWELL LOADING UP....

Hope you enjoyed the Winter Solstice.  Break between big swells today - deep water around 7.5-8 ft at 12 seconds from 300 plus.  Break will be short-lived as the Papa Buoy is already showing deep water swell at 19ft 14-15 seconds.   That will arrive tonight and be in full force tomorrow, along with a new round of rain showers lasting through Christmas.   On and off rain, wind, lots of swell.   There will be moments if you pick your windows wisely.  Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and cya in the water.  

WHOA! BIGGEST SWELL OF THE YEAR INBOUND THIS WEEKEND

As if it's not been big enough the past two weeks.....Large storm system with a dynamic fetch (means the winds are moving at a high speed in the same direction of an already created swell) all pushing east towards the West Coast - creating a huge swell event for Sunday night and Monday.   Satellite pass yesterday revealed seas in excess of 51ft and the storm was only 1500 miles from the Coast.  NOAA is predicting long period swell of 18-20ft (Bay Area), 20-23 ft (North Coast) with extremely long periods of 19-21 seconds.  Deepwater breaks like Mavericks and others will be in excess of 50ft on Monday.   We still have large swell until then, staying mostly above 10ft until Sunday night.   Storm door is open as well, quick moving storm today and tonight - break Saturday and then another quick moving system Sunday.  Winds don't look great - going to stay mostly south to southwest through Sunday night.   Might see light northwest winds for Monday (Bay Area), but winds on the far North Coast should remain west to southwest.  Monday should certainly be one to go and witness.  Be cautious and alert if you're near the beaches.   Cya in the water.

WEEKEND FORECAST

Long period swell continuing this morning at 8-9ft at 18 seconds from 300.   Still quite solid, but down a few notches from yesterday.  Picture is from the North Sonoma Coast as lines marched in.
Swell will continue to fade into tomorrow, but still be 6-8 at 15 seconds.   One more day of high pressure and then two new storm systems arriving affecting our weather until Monday.   The first one this evening will mainly affect the region north of Cape Mendo.   The second, Saturday night into Sunday should bring rains region wide - with lesser amounts south of Sonoma.  Winds will stay east to southeast today and southeast tomorrow.   South winds ramp up Saturday night through Sunday.   Swell will crank back up Sunday night through Monday - back in the 10-12 ft range (deepwater).  So no shortage of swell for the foreseeable future - just keep an eye on the winds.   Cya in the water.

BIG AND STORMY

Pt Arena Buoy is 16ft at 14 seconds this am.  Whoa.   Next in a series of storm systems knocking on the door which will bring rain, high winds and large surf.  Another large west swell lines up for later this week.   Storm door is open, south wind door is open, swell door is open.  Perhaps a good time to travel south to the safety of So Cal or Baja.   Cya in the water.  

THANKSGIVING WEEK FORECAST - ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN

This AM features offshore winds, cool temps and lingering northwest swell - 4-5 ft at 12-13 seconds. Today and part of tomorrow should be the last of the smoke filled days as our weather pattern finally shifts into something that looks like late autumn.   A series of Pacific weather systems will impact CA starting late Tuesday and lasting through at least Friday, perhaps longer for our northern areas through the weekend.   Southeast winds will be on the rise tomorrow and get stronger through about Wednesday night - transitioning over to southwest winds Thanksgiving Day and Friday.   Small west swell will continue and then build Wednesday with long period forerunners at 3-4 ft @18 seconds.  Thursday, west swell will be 8-11ft and 10-12ft on Friday (deep water heights).   Heaviest rain looks to be Wednesday (with mountain snow) - and then again late Thanksgiving Day into Friday.   Plenty of swell on tap - winds just look a bit dicey.   However, if you know your spots you might find some moments.   Happy Thanksgiving, cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - SOLID SWELL FOR MID/LATE WEEK

East winds continue to transport heavy smoke from the Camp fire in Paradise to the Bay Area and points north.   Small surf today, 2-3 ft - mix of southwest and northwest swells.   Look for swell to ramp up late Wednesday - probably overnight - and be quite solid for Thursday/Friday - with stand out winter breaks back in the double to triple overhead range.  Light winds should continue Wednesday, increase from the northwest on Thursday and then back off again Friday/Saturday.   This incoming swell will gradually fade through the weekend.   AM sessions should be pretty clean through the period - just check the winds later in the week.   For those looking for any sign of rain - long term models aren't really showing anything until Thanksgiving or beyond.   The good news is the blocking ridge of high pressure, which has been situated offshore for almost a month is forecast to move out and low pressure will take it's place.   How long and how much rain we will get - too early to know.   Models should have a better handle on that by early next week.   Until then, should be plenty of surf on tap.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - Good week for work

Not much to talk about this week.  High pressure is locked offshore around 135W.  Almost stationary and shunting storms to our north.   Strong northwest winds and junky short period windswell through the week.   No rain in sight which is not a good thing with November upon us.  Pattern might start to break down middle of the month - but nothing solid on the charts right now for swell or weather.  Cya in the water.

WEEKEND FORECAST & BEYOND - 10-26

Sorry for the break in reports - been surfing a ton and taking advantage of all the swell and good conditions this past month.   We have a pretty decent shot of northwest swell in the water today - deepwater is 8-9 ft at 13 seconds from around 300.   Local beaches are pretty walled, with fog and light winds.   Over the outer waters,  winds are strong from the northwest and pretty ugly.   High pressure is building in today and tomorrow before giving way to a weak system that will move in on Sunday but keep all rain towards the Oregon border.   Winds will probably shift south to southwest ahead of the front and then north to northwest behind it.   Look for the northwest swell to gradually fade but stick around through Sunday, then another northwest swell train will come in with deep water heights projected to be 6-10ft at 15 seconds.  Peaking Monday at 10-11ft.   That swell should stick around well into middle of next week.   Winds aren't looking ideal, however given the time of year we might see some offshore flow for the AM's only - but expect winds to pick up through the day as high pressure will be about and influencing our local wind and weather.   There will continue to be a fair amount of background southwest swell in the 2-3ft range - so it's not over down under yet.   Much of that will get lost in the northwest swell.   Plenty to ride, some spots should be decent.   Cya in the water.

SOLID SOUTHWEST, MORE SWELL ON THE WAY...

SW swell is 3.1 @18 this AM from 210.  Looking for this swell to hang around through Tuesday with light winds.  By midweek, models are growing more confident we will see a very solid west/northwest swell from around 280-300 deg.  Could be good for overhead to double overhead waves at top spots from Wed to Fri.   Winds could be favoring offshore AM sessions by this time as well.   Another solid southwest swell is forecast for around Oct 22-25.   All in all, pretty solid month of surf, as it should be in October.   Cya in the water.

SWELL FROM EVERYWHERE - WEEKEND FORECAST

Our first pulse of northwest swell is winding down this am - swell is 4-6ft at 12-13 seconds from 295.   Also have a small southwest swell in the water - 2-3 at 14 from 205.   We have swell inbound from N and S this weekend.   South swell from Hurricane Sergio and another Gulf Swell set to roll in Saturday.   Sergio swell should show Saturday at select breaks.  Models are forecasting deepwater heights of 3-5ft at 19sec for Saturday night.   This might be a bit overdone, but we will wait and see as the swell starts rolling up the Coast.   Swell will stay solid on Sunday, 3-4 at 18 seconds.  In fact, expect the Sergio swell to stick around until around next Tuesday.   As for the N Pac swell(s) - we're going to have a lot of wind starting Saturday and that will really ramp up the wind swell (and drop water temps again).   Peak of that event should be Saturday night into Sunday 8-11ft (offshore waters), smaller nearshore.   In addition we will have a longer period west/northwest swell from the remnants of Typhoon Trami which went extratropical this past week and will send in a longer period swell at 3-5ft at 19 deepwater 300-305 on Saturday.   Sunday period will be down to 18 seconds and 16 seconds on Monday.   Winds will be the issue over the weekend and into next week as an inside slider is dropping down the State over the weekend which will ramp up the north to northwest winds strongly starting Saturday night.   We could see some offshore winds by next week at certain spots along the Coast, so keep an eye on it.   However, with all the swell sources this weekend and beyond, there should be plenty of spots holding waves and rideable.  Cya in the water.  Yay Fall!  

HURRICANE ROSA, N PAC TO GET BUSY, S PAC STAYING BUSY....

Interesting pattern taking shape offshore tonight with some possible rain coming into our region tomorrow and then again Mon/Tues.   No gully washers mind you, just a little shot here and there.   In addition to the active weather, Hurricane Rosa is churning off Baja and moving slowly north/northwest through the weekend with a decent chance we will see some swell from that system by Sunday (Bay Area), Monday/Tuesday (points further north).   If one believes the models, could actually see deepwater swell from Rosa late Sunday going 3ft plus at 14 seconds from a very steep 165.   Monday, swell forecast to build to 5ft at 15sec also at 165 (quite solid if this materializes) and then fading Tuesday at 3-3.5ft at 13-14 seconds from 165.   Due to the angle of approach only the best south facing spots will pick this swell up and much will just radiate by the California Coast.   Also keeping an eye on two storms in the N Pac over the weekend to see if any swell materializes for next week and from the S Pac two storm systems in play for perhaps some swell late next week or early the following.   Winds look pretty light through about next Wednesday.  Fall is here.   Cya in the water.  

HAPPY FALL - WEEKEND UPDATE

Today is the first full day of fall.   Small southwest swell is in 1.9ft @17 from 195.   Quick check of conditions show light winds and fog everywhere.   Swell to stick around tomorrow and then fade out and then it's back to a windswell regime for the foreseeable future.   No swell of interest from the North Pacific forecast in the coming week.   Still waiting for the machine to kick in.   Long term odds look better for late Sept into the first week of October if one can believe the models this far out.  So get what you can and best conditions will probably be found early over the next week.  Cya in the water.

WEEKEND FORECAST/SEPT 14

New southwest swell in this morning at 2-3 ft @18 from175.  Winds are lighter from the northwest than they've been.   Look for south swell to continue for the next few days with no real clean up with the winds (or fall offshores) - so AM sessions will be best.   Still watching for our first northwest swell of the season - nothing yet.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - SEPT 6

Small southwest swell started rolling in yesterday and continues this AM.   2.2@15 from 190.   This swell will slowly fade out tomorrow.   Wind swell remains in the water as well - 3-5ft at 6-8 seconds from 300 +.   No swell producing storms forecast in the N Pac yet, but there is activity and things look to perhaps improve mid to late next week as a series of stronger fronts get traction.  In the meantime - we have a run of southwest swell coming for this weekend.   First forerunners will come in late Saturday, 1-2ft at 20-21 sec.   Sunday, swell builds to 2.8 at 18 sec and will hold at that duration through Monday.   Swell will begin a slow fade by next Tuesday with period down to 14-15 sec.   Swell direction will be around 170-180 - so a touch steep.   Wind and fog remain the issue with no offshore winds forecast at this time.   Keep an eye on the winds, AM sessions probably the best right now until we start getting some fronts through the Pac Northwest into the Great Basin giving us a bigger hint of fall.   Cya in the water.  

SEPTEMBER!

Welcome to the 2018/19 surf season in Northern California.   Made it through another summer.   Going to look like summer for a while yet as we have strong northwest winds, dropping water temps again and lots of wind swell.   Wind swell will get larger towards Sunday so some spots that can pull in that energy and keep you out of the wind might be the call.   Not many of those exist around these parts, but there are a few.   Don't see much let up in winds through early next week and no ground swell on the horizon yet from the North Pacific.   Could see a small south swell starting around Monday - but feel like it might get beat down and lost under the more dominant NW flow.   Some small background hurricane swell from Miriam and Norman could dribble in over the weekend as well at south facing spots - but don't expect much above waist high.   Cya in the water and i'll be back to more regular reports now that it's September!  

SMELLS LIKE FALL.....

Rambling thru the Russian River Valley this week and the local trees are showing color.   Ocean has been smooth from Salmon Creek and points north.   Sept 1 is almost here.   If you're like me, you love this time of year in Nor Cal.   Nothing on the horizon yet, just small northwest swell for the next couple days - 3-5ft at 11 seconds.   Northwest winds will start to ramp up towards the weekend - especially offshore and we'll see a batch of windswell with short periods develop.    AM sessions might be best for winds.   Keeping an eye on the N Pac - it's most definitely getting active in the higher latitudes, just need some troughs to drop down and get some traction over the open waters.   It's coming......cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - SOUTH SWELL ABOUT TO HIT!

Good looking southwest swell on the way up the coast tonight - already showing in So Cal at 3ft - 3.8ft at 18-20 seconds!  For us this one should peak around 3ft to 3.3 ft at 18 seconds overnight - be quite solid Friday at 3ft plus at 15 seconds, same on Saturday and begin a slow fade into Sunday at 2.9 ft at 14 seconds.   Direction about 180 degrees.   Swell will fade further Monday and be gone Tuesday.   Get some and cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST/MID AUGUST....Watching the N Pac

This morning we have tropical swell in the water from ex Hurricane John.   Swell is 2.5ft at 12 sec from around 170, pretty steep angle but it will get it to the right spots.   Also have a very small west swell in the water - about 1.5 ft at 11 sec from 190.  That west swell is from a Gulf of Alaska low that was spinning off the Pac Northwest this week and is now moving inland.  There is another southwest swell due in tomorrow late and that swell will probably max around around 2ft @ 14-17 sec from 200.   Also watching the remnants of Tropical Storm Shanshan - which is moving up and east of North Japan which is then forecast to continue racing east pushing over the Dateline over this weekend and might give us some small west to northwest background swell later next week.   That's a sign of fall when extratropical storms start to recurve and track east.   Will continue to monitor that corridor for activity.   Otherwise, watching the N Pac for early signs of the season.   Winds still aren't ideal and are forecast to ramp up again from the northwest this weekend - but there will be spots to ride and early mornings likely best.   Cya in the water.

AUGUST UPON US, SEPTEMBER INCHING CLOSER......

July comes to an end with wind and meager wind swell.   That should be the case for the rest of the week and then some as high pressure remains in control.   Could see an increase in the wind swell size by week's end, but don't look for much clean to ride.  Northwest winds are going to remain strong especially over the outer waters and points north.   Water temps have cooled off again as well. Might see some action from the south towards the middle part of August.   Hang in there as September is only a month away and the start to the fall surfing season.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - SOUTH PACIFIC GETS BUSY

Solid storms have been underway northeast of New Zealand & Central Pacific.   The first in a series of swells is due in this weekend - the New Zealand swell, 2-3ft at 16-17 seconds from about 213 degrees hits on Saturday.   The Central Pacific swell, which is bigger and more powerful, will begin to overrun that swell late day Saturday with long period forerunners in the 19-20 sec range from 195 plus.  On Sunday, we will see 2 ft at 19-20, jumping to 2.5 at 21 seconds on Monday as the second pulse of this swell takes over the first.   Next Tuesday looks very good - deepwater 3.5 ft and bigger at 18-19 seconds - all 191-200 degrees - a very favorable swell angle for Nor Cal breaks.   That swell will probably hold well into the middle of next week.   Until this Saturday, it's mostly windswell and a fair amount of wind over the outer waters - could see a few light wind moments near shore - but don't expect much.  It does look like the winds will back off some for the weekend which is great news with the inbound swell.   Always a good thing for south swells moving up and around Pt Conception not having to battle strong northwest winds which can degrade size.   So get some work done because we're going to have a good run of southern hemi!  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST/JULY 15

South swell continues this morning, most readings show swell around 2.4ft - 3 ft @14 seconds from 180.   Water temps have warmed over the past week with the lack of northwest winds - ranging 55-59 north to south.   Look for fairly light winds to continue today and probably tomorrow - then winds will start to ramp up again from mid week on.   After this run of south swells ends tomorrow we will be back to windswell for the next week.   So get what you can.   Cya in the water.  

HELLO FABIO/UPDATED FORECAST 7--6

Swell from Hurricane Fabio is showing strongly this am - but it's a very selective swell given the steep angle of approach (165-175).   However, buoys showing 4-5 ft at 13-14 seconds.   Winds are from the north/northwest already this am and will get stronger over the weekend.   Water temps have come up with the south winds - back in the 54-56 range.   Swell from Fabio will stick around through tomorrow and then fade - so get it while you can.   After this, it's back to windswell for next week.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST/6-27 AND WEEKEND....

Swell this morning is primarily mid size wind swell at 7-8ft at 9-11 seconds from a steep 320.   Winds in the Bay Area are south to southwest.   From Pt Reyes north, winds are blowing strongly over the outer waters from the north/northwest.   Water temps remain on the chilly side - low 50s.   For the rest of the week, north winds will be the rule especially north of Pt Reyes, getting back up to gale force over the weekend.   Large wind swell will be the main source of waves with a background southwest swell from New Zealand showing primarily Sat/Sun at select spots that will focus the energy, but mostly lost under the more dominant flow from the north.   S Pac has gone to sleep beyond this week and nothing active in the tropics right now.   Wind swell is going to be the primary source of waves for the foreseeable future - but at least we have that.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 6-16

Wind swell remains the primary source of surf through the weekend.   Deep water is running anywhere from 7-11ft at 9-11 seconds, bigger north of the Bay Area.   From around 320 deg.   We will have a southerly wind/fog surge on Sunday which will briefly reverse the relentless northwest winds, bringing a bout of south winds.   We do have a small south swell due in starting late Saturday lasting until about Tuesday - 1.7ft to 2.5ft at 16 seconds from around 203 degrees.   Minimal really, and much of this energy will likely get throttled once the northwest winds pick back up Sunday night.       Still, might find something to ride at south facing breaks.   Maybe a bit more hope in the long term from the South Pacific, as the storm cycle looks to continue/pick up southeast of New Zealand which is a favorable swell corridor for us and has been a decent producing region so far this year.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 6-8 - SOUTH SWELL FOR WEEKEND

South swell from a storm that developed from 6-1 to 6-4 in the Central South Pacific is moving towards CA and will begin to show late Saturday with early forerunners at 1.9ft at 20 sec from around 200 degrees.   Main push happens Sunday and Monday as the deep water is forecast to jump to 3ft at 18 sec.   Period will start to drop Monday (16-17 sec) into Tuesday, fade on Wednesday.   All in all, looks like a decent run.   Our coast will remain shredded by northwest winds through the next week so south facing spots will be the call.   Maybe a few moments early mornings at beach breaks that like souths, but many of those are north to west facing and will be impacted by winds.   Cold water will remain.   Something to ride at least it would appear if the swell comes in as forecast.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - JUNE 4TH

Wind, lots of wind from the northwest and chunky windswell is what we have this week.   Water temps are dropping (47! at Pt Arena, 50 at Bodega, 51 at SF).   No change expected through the week as the summer time Pacific High pressure ridge is established.  I  am watching a decent storm in the Southern Pacific near New Zealand.   Storm is to churn for the first part of this week while moving north some (always good for southern storms to be generating wind/fetch while moving in our direction).   Swell from this will probably be a week out - so middle of next week.   Will keep an eye on progress and update later in the week.   Until then - get what you can if you can.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST/MEMORIAL DAY

Primarily windswell today and for the week ahead as the South Pac is asleep again and no swell producing systems really present in the North Pac.   Winds are light nearshore this AM in the Bay Area - blowing harder from the northwest the further north you go.    High pressure in control until mid week when a weak system briefly breaks down the ridge which will allow the pressure gradient to relax some and winds will ease.   However, no real change in terms of waves.   Probably something to ride at the beach breaks.   Summer in Nor Cal.  Keep your expectations low and you'll find something to ride.   Cya in the water.

LARGER SW SWELL THIS COMING WEEK, LESS WIND...

Early Sunday features howling northwest winds down the entire coast of CA.  The worst batch is between Pt Reyes and Pt Arena.   Water temps responding accordingly now at 50 at SF Buoy and 49 most points further north.   Dominant energy is windswell with a fading southwest swell and small Gulf swell.  Eyes to the south for the coming week as a decent southwest swell train is moving north, courtesy of a very strong low pressure system near New Zealand a week back.   Forerunners Monday night - 2ft @21 sec.  Builds Tuesday pushing 3.3ft @18-19s by late afternoon.  Wednesday might be the thickest day at 3.8ft @17s with residual energy left for Thursday at 3.7@15-16sec.   Direction 185-195 degrees.  By mid week the pressure gradient should relax and winds will actually reverse south by Wednesday, very light south, so could have some decent conditions for the mornings in particular.   Get it while you can because there isn't anything yet forecast behind this swell.   The North Pacific has officially gone to sleep for the summer, but at least we're off to a decent start for the Southern Hemisphere.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 5-11/SOUTHWEST SWELLS NEXT WEEK

Better run of southwest swells looks to start next week and continue for a while as storm activity in the South Pacific region has picked up over the past week.   Until then, we're going to get a serious dose of northwest winds over the next 36 hours - gale force to storm force far north, a touch less around the Bay Area.   We do have a mid period northwest swell in the water and large short period windswell from the ongoing winds in the outer waters.   The windswell is 10ft plus at 11 seconds from 320.   The smaller northwest is running 4-5ft at 12 seconds but likely undetected due to the more dominant windswell.   Due to all the wind and the wind forecast - water temps are dropping fast due to the upwelling.   SF Buoy around 49.  Pt Arena Buoy at 48!   Winds will blow strong until we get a southerly surge Sunday, when direction will shift to the south at about 5-15kts.   First southwest swell forerunners will likely show up late Sunday/Monday - 2-3 ft at 17 from 190.   Second swell will follow during the week with a better angle 213-220 also around 3ft at 18 sec.   That swell should continue through next Thursday.  North Pacific is going to sleep for the summer - jet stream is retreating to the north and North Pacific High is asserting it's dominance.   La Nina is about gone and hopefully this will equal a more favorable configuration for storm production in the Pacific next Fall.  Finally, have board bags, leashes, fins and a few wetsuits available at my garage sale this weekend (see post below) both boards were sold this week and no longer available.   Cya in the water.

WASABI GARAGE SALE/UPDATED FORECAST

Mothers Day Weekend we're having a garage/moving sale at 102 Redwood Drive, Woodacre, CA.   For surfers, board bags, some wetsuits, gear, couple boards for sale:  9.6 Ashley Lloyd log and a 7.4 Mitsven single fin.   Bunch of backpacks, clothes etc.   For the mom's and girlfriends, plenty of home stuff.  Starts next Friday May 11th (10am) and runs Saturday, Sunday both days 9-5pm.

Now for the forecast - well, it's May.   Actually the winds don't look horrible the next five days - just not much swell around from either the north or south.   Basically looking for small windswell through the period - at around 4ft 10 seconds.   Might be an uptick in winds mid week - but check it each AM - beach breaks will probably be biggest and early morning sessions might provide a few opportunities.

I'm moving to the far north coast early June - however I  will continue my forecast updates for the region.   Cya in the water.

NOW IT'S SPRING, UPDATED FORECAST 4-21

That should be a wrap on the rain for the season.   High pressure beginning to take control and the jet stream is retreating to the north.   Still some lows spinning out in the N Pac, so we're not done with winter swells just yet - but they're becoming smaller and less frequent which is normal.   Today we have a mix of swells in the water.    Northwest Gulf swell is showing at 6-8 ft from 13-14 seconds from around 300deg. The bigger swell north of Bodega Bay.   Windswell in the water, 4-5 ft at 7-9 seconds.   Small south swell is building - 1.4 ft at 14 sec from 205.  Winds are already blowing northwest over the outer waters. bit lighter for the moment near shore - but it's not very clean unless you go to breaks out of the wind.  Look for winds to continue through about Tuesday when the high pressure pattern relaxes some and a weak low pressure system passes to our north.   This will actually turn winds light south about Wednesday - so those two days next week - Tues/Wed - might be the cleanest coming up - but mostly in the AM.  South swell forecast to build, however think most of the energy will get lost in the more dominant northwest swells and the northwest wind offshore will shred the size some as it makes it way around Pt Conception.   Places that pick up the south and work well on northwest winds might have some fun waves.  Moderate period/size northwest swell to continue through about mid week.   South swell will be gone then as well.   La Nina is fading fast so that's a wrap on her - unlikely to return for a third winter next year.   It will be interesting what pattern sets up for the coming year and into the next season.   Cya in the water.

BACK TO WINTER/UPDATED FORECAST

Potent storm system just offshore today - will arrive overnight and bring rain through Saturday.   South winds will ramp up and stay elevated.   There is a nice southwest swell in the water today - about 2-3ft at 15-17 seconds.   That will hang around through tomorrow and then fade out into Saturday.   Meanwhile, larger northwest swell will build in, actually probably more west than northwest.   Friday look for that swell to be around 7ft @11 seconds, building Saturday to 9-12ft and Sunday a touch bigger 10-12ft.  Period will stay 11-12 seconds as it's coming from this storm as it nears the CA/OR/WA coasts.   I don't see an improvement in winds until Monday.  That said, plenty of swell on tap, rain and wind - but there are nooks and crannies up and down the coast that will hold waves.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - LOOKS LIKE SPRING....

One more series of storms to get through this weekend then high pressure takes over with northwest winds forecast - we all know what that means.   For the next couple days, swell looks to build into the 8-10 ft range, with 12 second periods and increase a bit in size and period Sat/Sun.   SW winds today turning W overnight turning to light NW Saturday morning and then stronger NW beyond.  Swell will begin to fade Sunday night and then next week it just looks like your garden variety northwest windswell with winds.   Nothing on the southern hemi charts yet down under, however the models are hinting a possible large storm forming middle of next week - so that might give us some action two weeks out.   Get what you can this weekend because it's slim pickings beyond.   Cya in the water.

MARCH!

March.   Traditional end of our winter season and the beginning of northwest winds and cold water.   Well we've had the cold water for 2-3 weeks now - winds actually not that bad right now and the forecast for this week isn't the worst i've seen for the start to March.   We have another storm system out in the Pacific which is due to come ashore Wednesday through Friday (earlier far north).   High pressure is getting pumped up today and tomorrow in advance of that front with northeast to east winds forecast due to the direction of wind flow.   By Tuesday night - south winds will ramp up and will remain strong through Wednesday, easing some Thursday (but still southwest) and then light west by Friday.   Swell looks to remain fairly mid size through the week - 4-6ft 12-15 second periods.    Pattern looks to remain active as go through Mid March - so perhaps we will see some decent swells and variable wind.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 2-24/NW WIND SHRED FEST/COLD WATER

It's almost March, but with La Nina raging - feels and looks like Spring.   Water temps continue to drop with the onslaught of northwest winds - 49f at SF 47.7 at Pt Arena.   It's cold.   Air temps remain cold as we're locked in a trough pattern with systems sweeping down from BC.  Slight chance of rain far north today - better chance of rain everywhere by Monday and finally some decent precipitation forecast for late next week as the Polar Low over Hudson Bay has moved East (this has been the blocker for the past month or so) which will allow more moderate Pacific air and storms to finally come ashore.   Probably too late to make up any real deficit at this point - as most of CA is only 50% or below of average - but we will take what we get.   Surf wise - there is a west swell running - about 6ft at 15 sec - but the problem is it's getting trashed by the northwest winds and windswell running down the coast - which is about 100miles wide from the coast offshore.  So you might see some bigger pulses now and then if you're surfing at a south facing break today - but it's getting lost under the more dominant windswell energy.   NO let up in winds through next week - swell will remain fairly moderate - probably 6-9ft.   March 1st is the end of the traditional "good" surf season up here - but will start keeping an eye on the southern hemisphere for some early season action.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 2-15

Storm track remains split in the far West Pacific and as such, we have no really strong systems out there that can produce meaningful swell.   Modest pulses this week.   We should see an upturn in energy starting Friday night into Saturday as a new longer period swell arrives - peaking Saturday at 7ft 17seconds.   North and west facing breaks will have decent size.   Winds over the outer waters are suppose to remain elevated - north to northwest - nearshore - could be times in the early mornings with light wind to sideshore/offshore - best bet to check it - wind forecast remains highly variable at the moment.   High pressure remains in control - we are really falling behind now with rainfall totals statewide with no real relief in sight.   Next week a very cold weather system is forecast to drop right out of Canada over CA and usher in the coolest temps we've seen in a long time - but very little moisture.   Long term models show some signs of hope for the persistent ridge to finally break down by the end of Feb - but i'm not sure that's going to happen.   March 1 looms, the traditional end to the "good" wave riding season in Nor Cal - ugh - and we could be in for a very windy spring.   That means very cold water temps too.   Cya in the water!

UPDATED FORECAST 2-8

It's not looking that great for the weekend and week ahead.   High pressure remains in control pushing rain and swell producing storms up and to the north.   Small west swells have been running in all week - 2-3 ft at 11-12 - hardly the stuff of winter around these parts.  Northwest winds will start to really pick up Friday and look to blow through the weekend - perhaps a touch side shore to offshore in certain zones - but with all that wind blowing north of Pt Reyes - it should be a mess.   Water temps, already on the cool side far north - should really tumble.   Maybe the windswell will get big enough late weekend to get some waves at the south facing breaks.  Might see an uptick of longer period swells mid next week - but until then, take what you can find/get.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 1-27

Our run of large surf has come to an end for a while -- storm track is retreating to the north with high pressure to build in bringing dry weather for the next 7-10 days.   Winds should be light from the north perhaps offshore starting tomorrow and lasting at least until Monday.   Then we might see an uptick in northwest winds as high pressure strengthens mid week.   Lingering swell today - 7-8ft at 11-12 seconds - will hold through Sunday and then drop to 4-5ft for Monday.    Swell will pick back up some mid week - but staying in the 6-8ft range most areas.   So after a pretty wet January - looks like the first week or two of February could remain dry.   Could be some good beach break days ahead - cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - WHOA, 21 @18 FROM 295!

Largest swell of the season is roaring ashore this morning.   Buoys are ranging from 21-24ft with super long periods 17-21 seconds.  Not for the faint of heart.    XXL swell should continue right into the weekend - mortal heights probably heading back into the zone Sunday but still quite large for west and north facing beaches.   Winds don't look great until Monday fluctuating between south to southwest to northwest as a series of storms come ashore and pass to the east.   Perhaps some lighter northwest winds Monday.    Not seeing a break in the pattern until late next week when high pressure may return giving us an extended period of calmer weather.   Until then, large surf with highly variable winds the rule.   Cya in the water.

What was that phrase from the Godfather......

Just when i  thought i  was out they pulled me back in......?   My last post saying i  was taking a winter break generated a lot of emails.   Want to thank everyone for their thoughts and it also made me realize that the blog for many is important as are the reports.   So i'll do my best to keep the reports and not leave anyone hanging!  

With that in mind - let me update everyone on what is happening and coming - because we do have some pretty significant swell trains inbound.   First off, large northwest swell that rolled in the past two days is winding down this am - but still quite solid - 8-9ft at 15 seconds far north - a bit smaller towards OB and Santa Cruz (7-8ft at 15 from 300).   We have two days of decent winds, especially mornings and the next very solid swell will start showing tonight - and by Sunday morning be impacting the north and central coast with forerunners in the 8-10ft at 21-22 second range.   Quite solid with the long period.   Swell will likely increase on Monday - deepwater 13-14 ft and 16-19ft in spots 18-19 second period.  Very powerful and large.   Storm track gets active again Monday, North Bay first and rain spreading into the Bay Area Tuesday.   Another break Wednesday before another storm comes ashore Thursday into Friday.   Weather models hint at yet another system next weekend.   So after a long dry December with minimal swell - January is taking us in the opposite direction with weather and waves.   Winds Sunday will start to veer southeast ahead of the next system and pretty much stay south to southwest the remainder of the week.   So today and tomorrow (if you like the big stuff) will be the call.    Thanks again for all the support and i'll do my best to continue reports each week into the year ahead.   Cheers and cya in the water.  

Happy New Year!

Happy New Year!  Wasabi is going to be taking a winter break from the forecast for the remainder of the season so I won't be updating for a while.   Work,  combined with the fact that I'm not around this area much anymore (more time spent far Nor Cal) - need to focus on some other things.    Please continue to use the links and the site and I  may resume updating the forecast later in the year or when I  have more time on my hands.   Thanks to everyone for being loyal followers of this blog.   Cya in the water!