NEW YEARS WEEKEND FORECAST

Our nice conditions of the past week will slowly fade going into tomorrow as a pair of very cold storms drop due south out of BC, bringing with them strong north winds, scattered showers and a chance of very low elevation snow over the hills and ranges of Nor Cal.  Extremely cold morning temps will follow into next week and it will be very blustery overall.  Surf wise - 8-10ft deepwater continues this morning with light north to northeast winds.  Saturday, surf will stay around 10-12ft at 13 seconds.  Winds will increase Saturday, 20-30 knots. Same swell size for Sunday.  Northwest winds forecast Sunday at 20-30 knots so look for a heavy dose of windswell/chop over the main swell.  Water temps have already been very cold and look for them to tumble a few more degrees after this weekends wind event.  Have a safe New Years and cya in the water.

MERRY CHRISTMAS

East winds on this Christmas morning and very cold temps.  Swell is 9ft @11-12 seconds from 300.  Swell fades more today and tomorrow will feature east winds and smaller surf.  Look for 5-6ft at 12 seconds tomorrow.  Swell will build again Tuesday - 9ft at 16 and stay above that height through Thursday.  Winds most of next week look pretty nice for morning sessions - light east to north winds. Cold air temps.  High pressure setting up over us for a bit of an extended run, at least until late next weekend or so when models forecast a wet pattern to return.  All the best this holiday season to you and yours - looks like a fun week of surf ahead.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - 12-19

North to northeast winds are providing offshore winds this morning and most spots.  New swell has been filling in overnight as the old one fades, buoys to the north are 8-9ft at 19 seconds.  Swell will build all day.  An incoming weather system will bring a slight chance of rain from Sonoma north tonight and winds will shift to the south/southwest briefly and then back to north on Tuesday.  Swell will build as a new swell train rolls in that evening at 12ft at 20 seconds (deepwater).  Period drops on Wednesday to 17 seconds, but size remains 11-13ft.  That swell fades and yet another swell rolls in about Friday - pushing heights back up into the 12-15ft range.  Better chance of rain around Thursday. After that front passes tomorrow winds should be fairly light near shore until Friday when winds are forecast to increase out of the north at 20-30 knots.  Temperatures are going to moderate over the next few days so mornings won't be quite so frosty.  So plenty of waves on tap, check the winds.  Happy Holidays to everyone and cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 12-15

Strong storm system with plenty of rain is roaring ashore today and will affect out weather for the next 24 hours or so.  Considering all the low pressure circulations offshore you might expect larger surf - but that will stay fairly mid size through the weekend and first part of next week.  Look for NW swell at 8-9 ft at 10secs Friday, and then a new pulse of NW swell on Saturday at 4-6 @17 sec.  Dropping Sunday to 3-4 ft.  That size sticks around Monday/Tuesday.  Mostly north to northwest winds the next 3-5 days too as fronts moving through the upper flow.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 12-9

Rain off and on for the next week and possibly beyond.  South winds as fronts come ashore, north to northwest winds as they pass.  Biggest swell thru about next Tuesday looks like Sat/Sun - deep water 8-9 ft at 13 seconds - the rest of the time, smaller than that and quite a bit smaller than it's been around here for a while now.  Check the winds, there will be spots working.

UPDATED FORECAST - 12-3

New, long period swell is filling in - right now most buoys reading 8-10 ft at 18-20 seconds.  Winds are blowing north/northeast to northwest depending on location.  Water temps have chilled off some with all the wind over the outer waters.  Hovering around 54 now.  Swell will build all day and be quite solid by late PM.  Large tomorrow as well, deepwater 10-12 ft at 16 seconds.  Gradual fade into the middle of next week but plenty to ride.  High pressure is influencing our weather for the next few days.  Slight chance of rain very far north late Sunday and then again around Wednesday.  Biggest headline will be the much colder temps next week as the airmass coming down from the north has it's origins in Alaska.  Longer range is showing a return to wet weather perhaps late next week.  Check the winds, cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 11-27

Large west/northwest swell in the water this morning - 12-14ft at 12-14 seconds.  Winds are already up from the northwest over the outer waters as our latest front has passed through.  Looks like more chances of light rain tonight and then again around Wednesday - however best chances of rain will north of Marin County.  Large swell will hold through all of entire next week - with some size changes through the period as one swell train enters and leaves our region.  It does look like high pressure will set up over the Eastern Pacific and keep us dry through late week.  This will also ramp up the north to northwest winds and decrease water temps.   Check the winds daily as near shore winds might be lighter for AM sessions.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 11-20

Large West swell hitting today - 12-15ft at 15 seconds from 290 +.  Winds are south and will switch to northwest later in the day as the current storm system exits the region.  For the week ahead - look for three more storm systems to come ashore - Tuesday, Thursday and next weekend.  Swell will stay fairly elevated from the West through the week - with a few spikes in size, Wednesday into Thursday.  Winds will turn south as each front comes ashore, northwest behind.  Plenty to ride - just need to keep an eye on the winds.   Happy Thanksgiving.  Cya in the water.

UPDATE FORECAST 11-14, WEST SWELL CONTINUES....

Big tides the next two days as the Moon is the closest it's been to Earth in the past 68 years.  Winds are light/offshore at the coast and light northwest at the buoys.  Swell is 6ft @13 from 295.  Rain tonight north, slight chance of rain down to SF Bay.  Swell will wind up tomorrow into Wednesday - back in the 10-13ft range (deepwater) with periods 15-17 seconds.  Surf will stay elevated into Thursday - drop some by Friday.  A stronger storm system will come in by the weekend along with strong south winds and rising storm swell.  Rain will be likely north to south into Saturday morning.  Plenty of swell to ride.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - MORE SWELL ON WAY

Get out an vote today.  Great few days past with large swell and fairly decent conditions.  Another large west swell is set to roll in here late today through tomorrow - deep water heights should climb back into the 14-15ft @17 seconds range.  Winds do look light for the rest of the week as high pressure builds over CA shunting the jet stream far to the north.  Slight fade in size Thursday (8-10ft deepwater) then the surf will climb back up again for the weekend as another swell rolls in (12-14ft deepwater).  Chance of rain far north late Friday into Saturday but otherwise high pressure looks to be the main player for a dry November after a very rainy October.  Cya in the water.

WEEKEND FORECAST

Solid West swell this morning - 12ft @14 from 290.  Winds are blowing offshore.  Pretty epic morning ahead.  One more nice day in store before a Pacific Weather system drops rain over the weekend - probably as far south as SF but likely no further.  Most of the rain will fall in the North Bay.  Swell will stay elevated through the weekend as a reinforcing shot of West swell enters are waters on Saturday keeping deepwater heights in the 12-15ft range.  Winds will turn southwest Saturday and then light northwest back on Sunday as high pressure regains control.  The upper atmosphere jet stream and winds remain locked in a very stagnant pattern with high pressure over the West/Texas and low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska.  We sit just on the far western edge of the high - not solid enough to keep storms out but just strong enough to knock them down some as they come ashore.  However, with low pressure anchored in the Gulf, don't look for swell trains to end anytime soon.  The N Pacific is pretty agitated from the past 2-3 weeks of storm circulations and that will continue.  Cya in the water.

HALLOWEEN UPDATED FORECAST 10-31

Another storm system poised to come ashore later this morning bringing rain and south winds.  How much rain have we had this October already?  Santa Rosa is about seven inches above normal (normal is a bit over two inches) for the month - while Crescent City is almost 15 inches above normal for the month.  Low pressure remains anchored in the North/Northeast Pacific spiraling systems and swell trains towards the West Coast.  South winds today with northwest swell leftovers from 8-9 ft at 11 seconds.  Winds will shift to west overnight, with a bump up in northwest swell tomorrow to 9-13ft at 13 seconds.  Might be something to ride at the more sheltered spots.  Wednesday will feature light south winds, deepwater swell 6-8 at 14 seconds.  Thursday and Friday, lighter north to northwest winds and a XXL swell cranks up pushing deepwater heights back to 12-16ft range.  Looks like after today the frequency of the systems will slow down as high pressure tries to regain control, but chance of rain Wednesday, far north and then a better chance over the weekend.   Plenty to ride, have to look around and know your spots that will work with the variable winds all week long.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 10-24-16

I'll be out later this week and this will be the only post through next Sunday.  Very stormy pattern has set up for us and we will see bouts of rain on and off through next weekend and possibly beyond.  West to northwest swells will propagate across the Pacific through the period along with mostly south to southwest winds, some northwest winds behind fronts as they pass through.  Should be plenty of surf on tap, finding a spot clean to ride will be the main issue.  Might be a good week to get some work done.  I'll post an updated forecast next Monday.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST, TWO NEW LINKS IN FORECAST SECTION

I've added two links in the Forecast Links section on the right of the page. NOAA Wavewatch III Model with NE Pacific animations and US West Coast.  These are good models to view incoming swell trains.  La Jolla Scrips server has been offline for over a week now - so I deleted NOR Cal Buoy link and Combined Pacific Buoy links from that site.  I'll keep checking back and if they come online will add them back to the page.

Swell wise - fading northwest swell from earlier this week remains in the water today - about 5ft @11 seconds.  New swell will start to show late tonight, north first and then be quite solid for Saturday.  Look for deepwater swell to jump to 10ft at 15 seconds for Saturday.  Swell direction 290-310.  Swell will hold into Sunday and then begins to fade for Monday.

Winds are blowing northwest right now strongly over the outer waters, lighter near shore.  Fog has returned to much of the Northern Coast of CA.  High pressure hanging over us until about Sunday when the weather pattern begins to shift to a wet one - with rain starting late Sunday night very far north and making it's way to Marin/SF Bay by late Monday or Tuesday.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 10-18

High pressure gradually building over the Pacific in the wake of our weekend storms which brought anywhere from 5 inches of rain North Bay and SC Mountains, to around an inch or more around the Bay Area.  North to northwest winds will be the rule the rest of the week, especially over the outer waters and far north.  Next significant swell looks to line up for next Friday into Sunday - deepwater swell heights to push 9-12ft on Saturday.  Until then - windswell and mid period northwest swell/or fading northwest swell the remainder of the week.  I'd check the winds each morning - near shore winds might be manageable for certain spots.  Next pattern change looks late Sunday into early next week with more rain forecast.  Cya in the water.

WEEKEND FORECAST - forgettabouitt

If you like your surf big and stormy, this weekend will be for you.  Northern Buoys are already 12-14ft with long periods plus 15 seconds and a larger swell is due for Sunday deepwater swell heights far north will be pushing 14-18ft.  Winds are south to southwest at around 22kts.  Storm #1 just going through the Bay Area now - should be a break later today and then a second system roars ashore for the weekend.  South to southwest winds through the period - don't see a shift to northwest winds until Monday when both systems have passed.  Go south if you want swell but no weather.  Cya in the water.

STORM DOOR OPENS MID WEEK AND BEYOND

First series of winter storms will begin to impact the Bay Area lateThursday and last through next weekend.  Heavy rain, winds and large storm surf will be the norm from late Thursday on.  Right now models hinting at a sustained and large swell train starting out 9-12ft deepwater Thursday night pushing to 15-17ft deepwater for Friday and Saturday.  Heights will drop to 12-15ft on Sunday.  South winds - very strong at times will be present through that period.  I'd say enjoy the relative calm before the proverbial storm over the next couple days with out small northwest swell in the water at 4-5ft at 13-15 seconds.  Fog is in, but winds are somewhat light depending on location until about Wednesday.  Should see some rather rogue and dangerous conditions late week.  Cya in the water.

WEEKEND FORECAST 10-7

N Pac swell is presently 3.5 @10 from a steep 320.  Nothing of interest from the S Pac.  Swell will continue to wind down through the weekend with lighter winds at least thru Sunday, especially for the mornings.  Not looking for any swell of significance just windswell 4-5ft at 9-10 seconds.   Things are suppose to get busier next week as the N Pac is quite active with storms at present and that activity should continue all the way through next weekend and bring rain to part of Nor Cal as well.  Will update late weekend.  cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST OCT 2

One system exiting the region tonight as another Pacific system following quickly behind will bring more rain to Nor Cal starting overnight far north, moving south through the Bay Area thru the day on Monday.  Winds will increase from the south all day , and switch to the northwest after front passage.   Swell will increase Wednesday and Thursday with deep water heights forecast to be 5-8ft (highest far north).  Winds look to stay elevated from the northwest most of the week, perhaps slowing down some towards next weekend.  Long range models are forecasting a large run of surf next week (starting around Oct 10th)  - still early days on that - but looks like we might see our first run of XL surf mid month.  Plenty of swell to ride until then, know your spots, check the winds.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 9-27

Southwest swell will be winding down through the day.  Another smaller run of south to southwest swell is due in Thursday through Saturday - this one should be good for shoulder to head high surf at best south facing breaks through the period.  Shorter period northwest swell and windswell will also be in the water Friday through the weekend.  Probably good for chest to head high at best north facing breaks.  Heat wave is over for now near the coast with onshore flow making a return later today with fog and coastal low clouds later.  Offshore winds will be gone too.  The rest of the week should feature northwest winds over the outer waters and far north - perhaps lighter conditions for morning sessions.  A storm system dropping down from the Gulf of Alaska will bring the first early season rain to far Northern California over the weekend, perhaps making it as far as Northern Sonoma County by Monday.  Bay Area should remain dry.  Cya in the water.

WEEKEND FORECAST

SW swell is pulsing up tonight - 2ft at 20 from 190-200.  Swell will peak tomorrow.  We will also see an increase WNW swell fill in Saturday - for overhead waves at the best north exposures.  Good weekend for surf.  Winds should be light early Saturday, trend up later in the day.  Better winds possible for Sunday with warm temps and perhaps offshore flow making it all the way to coastal areas.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST

Fall Equinox is Thursday.  Current northwest swell is winding down today but still 6-8ft at 14 seconds depending on location.  Windswell also in the water and a small southwest swell. Winds are light to variable or south also depending on location.  A few storm systems show up on the Pacific loop.  One will drop through the northwest and far Nor Cal tomorrow - slight chance of rain very far north near the Oregon border.  Another, larger system just coming under the Gulf of AK should send us swell for this coming weekend.  More on that around Thursday.  Until then - northwest swell will fade, windswell will probably rise up as brisk north to northwest winds will come in behind the front on Wednesday shredding things a bit.  Also does look like we may have a nice size southwest swell for the weekend too.  Starting to show around Friday and maxing out over the weekend.  Keep an eye on the winds, plenty of swell in the water, finding the right spot will be key.  Cya in the water.

PAPA BUOY BACK - UPDATE FORECAST

Papa Buoy is back online - 600 nm west of Eureka.  We once again have a good window to incoming swell trains this winter with Papa, West Oregon and California buoys all operating.  Keep an eye on those tomorrow as our new northwest swell shows.  Winds aren't ideal this morning - bit of onshore and northwest, light right now but should pick up later today.  It's small today mix of south and north facing swells, trace of tropical swell.  New northwest swell will begin to fill in late Saturday - probably overnight and build through the day Sunday.  Models are forecasting deepwater of 7ft at 14 seconds - will see if that shows.  It will be bigger further north you go, except for good north facing beaches around the Bay Area.  Keep an eye on the winds - will be lightest early thru the weekend.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - 9-14

Small northwest swell is showing today - 2-3ft at 13 seconds from 290.  This is from that system that was spinning in the Gulf over the weekend and as we started the week.  Small south in the water as well - deepwater running 2ft.  Look for the south swell to stick around through the week.  Current northwest swell will slowly fade out tomorrow with some left overs on Friday.  Attention turns to our weekend northwest swell when a longer period WNW 290-310 builds in Saturday (along with rising windswell).  This will be good for well overhead surf Saturday and Sunday points north, and good northwest facing spots around the Bay Area will get it on that action as well.  That swell will stick around until Monday.  Winds were pretty nice today as we had a bit of an offshore/southeast wind most of the day - sea breeze picked up late.  Winds look light Thursday as well, at least for the morning - then an uptick in northwest winds for Friday thru Sunday - at least over the outer waters.  As I've indicated, nearshore winds might not be bad - so check it each morning.  Finally there is some steep tropical/southeast swell from Orlene in the water which will only show at the most exposed south facing breaks tomorrow into Friday - but probably hard to notice with the more dominant south swell around.  Looking and feeling like Fall.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - HERE WE GO....

Sat photo to the right shows some decent activity starting up in the Nor Pac - as a storm has been crossing under the Aleutians for a couple days now and gaining traction over the open ocean.  Swell from this system will arrive Wednesday and Thursday this week.  Probably looking at 3-4 ft deepwater, 13-14 sec from about 294 both days.  Potentially bigger the further north you go.  Behind that - charts are showing more activity with a series of systems forming and delivering swell through the month of September - with a decent shot of surf forecast Sep 19-21.  More on that in the next week.  You will also notice south of Baja Tropical Storm Orlene - will keep an eye on this one as it might move into a more favorable swell window for us over the next 36 hours.  Finally, our current southwest swell, which provided fun waves all weekend is winding down into tomorrow, but there will still be some left overs around.  Winds this week are highly variable - going to blow northwest tomorrow shift south to southeast mid week, trend back to west/northwest late week.  Check it daily as AM winds might be ok for certain spots.  It is September and the heavy onshore flow we had all summer long should start to ease up - especially if systems starting dropping into the Great Basin on a regular basis to set up some offshore flow events. Plenty to ride the week ahead.  Check the winds.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - SEPT 8

As forecast, southerly winds and fog have returned to the coast this morning.  Long period forerunners of our southwest swell are just showing - 1.7 to 2 ft at 20 sec from 200.  Look for swell to build all day (it's a bit later than forecast) holding into tomorrow and then fading on Saturday.   Windswell remains in the water from the northwest along with slightly better pulses of northwest swell.  I am starting to see some activity in the North Pacific - a couple weak low pressure systems are moving through the upper region around the high pressure system that has been anchored there most of the summer.  Could see a bump up in mid period northwest swell late in the weekend into Monday - from 300 + periods 10-11 seconds.  Probably good for chest to head high surf far north and good Bay Area spots that have a window to the northwest.  Beyond that, could see a better shot of northwest swell next weekend and the first longer period swell of the season.  Wind forecast is tricky through the weekend.  Fog and southerly flow look to hang around - but could see light winds for the AM sessions, more onshore flow for the afternoons.  Check the winds.  Between the windswell/northwest and southwest swells in the water - should be plenty of surf.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST, SEPT 6TH

Not too much change in the thinking for the week ahead.  We have a couple of southwest swells in the water headed our way for around Wednesday, lasting thru Friday.  Looking for deepwater heights to be in the 2-3ft range with initial periods of 19 seconds, dropping to 18 sec through the day Thursday.  Northwest winds remain strong through tomorrow and then may start to fade some as high pressure moves into the Great Basin and the thermal low over CA moves towards the coast.  This should give us a southerly wind reversal by Thursday and lighter winds around the Bay Area and points north.  Some forecast/models calling for offshore winds, easterly flow for late week - think that might be overdone and overly optimistic - depends on the strength of the high pressure to our northeast and the location of the thermal low.  Water temps are cold now from all the wind - 50 at Bodega, bit warmer at SF Buoy with readings around 55.  No storms active in the North Pacific at the moment.  The Jetstream is pushing from the West Pacific up into Alaska down through BC with high pressure maintaining control for the moment in the entire East Pacific.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - SEPT 3

Shredded is a good word to describe conditions - north to northwest winds howling from the far North Coast all the way past Big Sur.  Water temps are dropping fast, already 52 at Bodega.  This is all due to high pressure re asserting itself in the East Pacific with low pressure departing to our northeast and east.  Windswell is increasing in size, but not sure you will be able to find anything clean to ride.  There will be a pulse of swell in the water starting tomorrow from West Pacific Typhoon Lionrock, but not sure you will notice it under the dominant windswell.  Deepwater swell will be 2ft at 17 seconds from 295-298.  Fading out by Tuesday.  Beyond that - couple of pulses with New Zealand origins show up mid week and beyond.  Southwest swell starting 215 + degrees 2-2.5ft deepwater Wednesday 9-7, with a 2nd smaller pulse Thursday 9-8 and Friday 9-9 from about 198-200 degrees.  Really waiting on a Fall pattern to take shape and nothing on the books yet.  Thought we were done with all this northwest wind - but mother nature has other plans for now.  Cya in the water.

SEPTEMBER 1!!

Welcome to meteorological fall (Sep-Nov) and the start of the good wave season for Northern and Central CA.  You made it thru another summer.  It's not looking that Fall like at present, but hang in there - things will be changing.  For the upcoming Labor Day weekend look for northwest windswell to continue along with small longer period swell from the southwest.  Winds don't look that ideal, northwest winds will blow most of the period over the outer offshore waters, but nearshore winds might be lighter, especially for the AM sessions.

While the West Pac and East Pac have been quite active with hurricanes of late - we have no inbound swell from any of those systems.  All the models point to things starting to pick up about two weeks into the month from both the north and south - with some decent swell possible from the southern hemi.  While we have transitioned out of El Nino to a La Nina state - it's a fairly weak La Nina, but don't look for the same type of size and consistency of waves we had last winter.  The energy out in the Pacific isn't the same.  Could see a fairly normal winter of weather and waves for Nor Cal - have to see how things unfold.  I'll be back on with regular reports now throughout the winter especially as things get busy and we start seeing some good swell events from the Nor Pac.  Cya in the water.

MID AUGUST

West Pacific Cyclone Omais turned extra tropical late last week and kicked up a couple pulses of very small west swells.  One has already come and gone over the weekend - you probably didn't even notice it with the wind swell in the water, but if you looked now and then at the buoys you would see some small 2ft @295 degrees in the water.  Another pulse is due to show today - again very small - 1-2ft deepwater - but a sign things are changing as we move towards September.  Always a good sign when systems turn extra tropical and come across the North Pacific.  Could see some lighter winds later this week with a mix of wind swell and a small southwest swell inbound.  September is almost here.  Cya in the water.

AUGUST

Mornings have a bit more chill in the air, local redwoods and native trees showing some early color.   August is a good month, slow transition towards fall.  Usually by mid to late August we will see some early swell signs of the season.  Right now, small south swell in the water this week - 2-3ft deepwater - and ongoing north windswell from 315+ as the pressure gradient north of Cape Mendo continues to churn winds over the outer waters.  Surf early, keep an eye on the winds.  Cya in the water.

END OF JULY

Last week of July - one more full month of summer to go.  Not much change ahead this week - strong northwest winds will continue to howl over the outer waters as high pressure to our east and southwest wrestles with low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska.  Good size windswell the main source of waves.  Tropics have been active but not a ton of swell making it up this far.  Way down under, some decent storm development showing for the past week and in the week ahead - may see some southwest swells show in another week or so.  Hang in there, surf early, or travel to warm waters.  Regular updates will start again on Sep 1.  Cya in the water.

HAPPY 4TH OF JULY

One more holiday to go after this one (Labor Day) and then it's fall.  Windswell, fog and not so great south winds remain our primary source of energy as we enjoy a typically normal summer holiday weekend.  There is some south swell in the water but it's very small and inconsistent.  Two tropical systems churning in the East Pac - Agatha and Blas - could see some small swell from Blas late next weekend - depending on the track of the storm and how much it intensifies.  Keep your expectations low and you can find waves to ride.  Cya in the water.

JUNE - South Pacific to remain active.....

June gloom along the coast will hang around.  The week ahead will feature mostly windswell events with an uptick in swell from the southwest probably late Sunday, early Monday, lasting into mid month as a series of storms down by New Zealand ramp up and send swell north.  Still early, but forecast models look promising for a pretty decent run of swell.  Until then, get some work done, you might find some windswell windows now and then.  Cya in the water.

LATE MAY

Unseasonably strong low pressure system dropping south into northwest CA today - rain showers north of Cape Mendo and some high elevation snow.  Strong north to northwest winds are howling and water temps are tumbling again as a result.  49 degrees at Pt Arena and near 50 at the SF buoy.  Look for northwest winds most of the next week with medium size windswell.  Some background south swell will work in through the period - best at summer breaks.  Only three more months to go until September.   Cya in the water.

END APRIL/EARLY MAY FORECAST

Water temp at the SF Buoy this morning is 48.6 degrees.  Almost two weeks of on and off northwest winds have the upwelling machine running - with no relief in sight through most of the weekend as strong winds over the outer waters will continue to howl down the northern coast.  Big wind swell the result - at 12-13 at 9 seconds - but we also have a long period northwest swell building in with 14 second periods.  South facing breaks will be the only call due to the winds - but much smaller overall.  The South Pac has been active for the past two weeks as well with decent pulses of south to southwest swells propagating north - but for us - due to all the wind & angle of approach - those swells are getting hammered as they move into our local waters.  Some of the more favored locations for south to southwest swells may pick up some of these swells as we move into early May, but your best option will be south of our region in fact as far south as you can go.  Lighter winds forecast from Sunday into early next week - might be some windows for surf.  Until then - take what you can get, where you can get it.  Cya in the water.

MID APRIL

Large off season swell winding down through tomorrow - swell is 11 ft at 14-15 sec from 295 plus.  Look for northwest winds to blow for the next few days over the outer waters - could see possible offshore flow morning sessions this weekend - as high pressure builds some to our north and east and winds switch.   Northwest swell will stay in the 6-8 ft range through Sunday.  Dry conditions to prevail, maybe another chance of rain late next week.  Not much incoming from the southern ocean, NPac remains fairly active for the time of year sending in pulses of west/northwest swell.  My reports will be less frequent as we move into late spring and summer, the official off season in Nor Cal.  Cya in the water.  

APRIL

Hope you got some of that southwest swell that came ashore the past few days.  Certainly were some moments if you were in the right spot.  Northwest winds are blowing and look to blow all week.  Small pulses of mid period northwest swell and wind swell will be the primary source of surf.  Forecast is calling for an early spring heat event mid week with offshore winds - but not sure if these winds will transfer all the way to the coast just yet.  If they do, Wednesday looks like the best morning with this pattern.  After that, low pressure moving up from Baja will merge with a low pressure system in the Gulf and bring us a chance of showers from Friday through the weekend - along with southerly winds as the Baja low moves up towards So Cal.  Not much swell in the long term from the south or north.  Keeping an eye on the Southern Ocean for hints of south swell events to come.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast 3-27

Water temps have tumbled to 51 from 56 deg last Thursday.  Result of 72 hours of howling northwest winds.  Ah, spring in Nor Cal.  Junky north wind swell the rule through mid week - then by late next week a new northwest swell will arrive along with a series of southwest swells that will get larger as we move into April.  Winds forecast to mellow some by next Thursday or so.  Next couple days will be good days to get stuff done.  Weather models are hinting at a slight chance of rain by next weekend - will see if that happens.  Cya in the water.

Northwest Winds to blow

The last storm in the recent series is moving through the Bay Area today with rain, wind and scattered thunderstorms.  Northwest swell is building at 10ft @17 from 300.  Swell will peak tonight and slowly fade tomorrow.  Swell will stay elevated from the northwest the remainder of the week - combination of northwest swell and windswell.  Deepwater heights to remain in the 9-12ft range.  Northwest winds will really ramp up blowing 15-25kts for the remainder of the week as high pressure takes control.   Spots protected from the winds should be fun.  Cya in the water.

And Just Like That......

First day of Spring is this coming Saturday.  Strong storms of this past weekend already a distant memory as we are under warming high pressure with fairly light northwest winds for the next couple days.  North/West swell continues to drop, but still decent size this morning at 9ft @14 seconds from 300-310.  Swell will continue to fade into the weekend offering fun size surf with morning sessions probably featuring the best winds or places out of the northwest wind flow.  By the weekend, low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska will push the high pressure off to the east - bringing us a chance of rain from Friday through Monday.  Far north will likely see rain as early as Saturday night - Bay Area by Sunday.  Not a big storm and part of the weekend might be rideable.  New swell will build in from the west for Saturday and Sunday - offering deepwater swell in the 6-8ft range.  Beyond that - high pressure regains control and it's starting to look like this El Nino might be on it's last legs with the signal fading in the West Pacific and the season transitioning to Spring.  Then the focus will turn to the long term - whether this will be a multi year El Nino event or a one and done - sending us back into La Nina.  Let's hope it's the former.  Cya in the water.

El Nino Rules

Heavy rain, strong south winds and large surf (even larger on Sunday) the rule through this weekend. There are a few spots on our Coast that will work if you know them - otherwise - everything else will be a total mess.  High pressure forecast to make a return next week and dry us out and hopefully give us a few clean days of surf.  Time to grab it when you can because the northwest wind machine could be lurking around the corner as we move towards April.  The South Pacific has already fired a southwest swell in our direction (lost under the dominant west energy) - so let's hope El Nino still has the legs to give us a good summer.  Cya in the water.

MARCH - EL NINO WEATHER BACK FOR A RETURN ENGAGEMENT

If you like big surf, south winds blowing sideways - the next few days or longer will be for you.  The Pacific storm machine has set up again similar to what we saw in January - storms across the Dateline - with the first one impacting us today with mainly light rain and then the main event comes in late tomorrow on and off through Monday - with heaviest rain and wind SF north.  Large west swells will propagate through the waters for the next week as the ocean is quite agitated with all of the energy blowing from west to east.  So if you know those spots that like south winds and large swell - plenty to ride coming up.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast, March Looms, Where is El Nino?

I think by now everyone knows the surf has pumped this week.  Just as one swell was fading out today another new, long period west/northwest swell is pumping up and will peak tomorrow.  Saturday look for deepwater swell 12-14 ft at 17 seconds.  Rain is falling north of Sonoma as a front is passing thru - but we won't get any of that precip.  Wind on Saturday looks light northwest 5-15kt - perhaps fairly light in the AM.  Sunday, swell winds down to 8-10ft at 15 seconds.  Still good for double overhead at the north facing breaks.  Similar wind forecast for Sunday.  Swell looks to stay elevated thru next Wednesday as more, smaller west swells roll thru - keeping things in the 8-12ft range deepwater.  March 1st is usually the official end of the winter surfing season - but i think this year things are going to keep churning out in the Pacific well into spring.  El Nino is fading - but it's not dead and there is still plenty of warm water out in the Pacific to fuel storm and swell.  Longer term models hint we may see a pattern change late next week into the middle of March.  March can be a fairly wet month in a normal year - so let's hope we get some good rain events.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Large and stormy today with the next Pacific weather system making shore with rain and wind to come later.  Swell is about 11-12ft at 14 seconds from 295+.  Large storm driven wind swell is hitting far northern waters.  Things will begin to calm down overnight with lighter north to northwest winds forecast until Sunday.  Swell is going to stay elevated this weekend - 10-12 ft deepwater forecast - but with the lighter winds - especially mornings there should be some windows to ride.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast 2/11

Much hyped Mavericks swell is starting to show at the buoys - 9 ft at 20 seconds.  Winds are offshore at OB - it's big, clean and there for the taking.  Swell will build all day into the evening - peak tomorrow at 12-14ft at 18 seconds (deepwater).  Winds are forecast to remain light but might be a touch of northwest in it as the day goes on tomorrow.  Winds pick up further from the northwest on Saturday - 15-25kt range, turning more north on Sunday.  Swell will remain very solid all weekend - deepwater heights 12 ft @15 sec on Saturday and 9-11ft on Sunday.  Plenty to ride the next few days. No rain in the forecast for the extended.  El Nino has left the building it appears.  Very odd.   Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Swell Upgrade for Thursday

XXL swell due in now on Thursday.  Hurricane force winds of 50-70kts from a large storm in the Gulf of Alaska are whipping up a large swell train with confirmed seas right now 40-45ft way out in the Pacific.   Really good winds are forecast for Thursday and Friday.  Thursday in fact could be pretty epic for the regions premier big wave breaks.  Size will gradually fade into the weekend but remain solid in the 6-10ft range both Saturday and Sunday.  One more bout of rain on Wednesday and then we stay dry into next week.  Long range forecast models forecast a return to a stronger El Nino infused wet weather pattern around mid month.  So get some now.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Feb 1

El Nino takes another break this week with only two weak weather systems due in Tuesday and then again Wednesday.  Winds are easing after the huge event yesterday which saw a wind gust at Pt Reyes of 74 mph late afternoon, as the low pressure system that dropped down the coast has moved off into the southwest.  Large wind swell is winding down but still about 16ft at 11 seconds from 310 this morning.  Winds don't really look to improve until Thursday when light offshore flow is forecast for the morning. The two incoming weather events will bring south to southwest to west winds Tuesday and Wednesday.  West swell will jump back up on Thursday - deepwater heights forecast 11-14ft.  Smaller Friday, 8-10 ft.  Cya in the water.

Sleds for Sale

Parting ways with a few boards to make room for some others:

(2) Firewire Daniel Thomson Vanguards.  Both 6.2 stock dims.  both have deck pads.  $275 each.  

(1) Daniel Thomson Vader.  6.1 stock dims.  Deck pad.  $400.00

(1) Channel Islands Black Beauty - custom with no black band.  6.6 by 20 1/2 by 2 3/4 with 5 future fins, no dings, deckpad, leash, fins.  Like new.  $475

The Vanguards are in Marin.  If any of my readers are on the North Coast above Sea Ranch this weekend  - i'm in Gualala and the Vader and CI Black Beauty are with me.  email me at bnovick@mac.com if you're interested in any of these boards.  

As for the updated forecast - it's big and stormy!  Swell will begin to subside over the weekend to more mortal heights - keep an eye on the winds and you might be able to get a session or two in.  

Cya in the water.  

Updated Forecast/1-26

El Nino is taking a brief break leaving us with east winds this morning and probably tomorrow as well.  Fun swell in the water today - 5ft @10 seconds from 295.  That will increase late today as a new swell is already showing in our far northern waters at 6-8ft at 17-19 seconds seconds.  Solid swell tomorrow at 8-10 ft at 16 seconds.  Weather wise - that's all we get - then it's back to rain and southwest winds Thursday late thru the weekend - heaviest wind and rain north of Marin.  A much larger swell train hits Thursday and Friday - deep water heights back up in the 12-15ft range.  Get it the next two days.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast - More of the same

New storm system came ashore with one more on it's heels tonight into Saturday.  Swell is back up - 14ft at 15-17 seconds from 280 - big west swell.  Winds are south at 20kts plus.  Look for this large swell to persist through Saturday - then begin to subside Sunday & Monday.  Winds look like crap for Saturday sessions - west 15-25kts - a few nooks and crannies might be sort of rideable.  NW winds on Sunday, but light - might make things a go for the AM sessions.  Smaller surf to continue into next week with potential offshore/northeast winds forecast by about Tuesday as high pressure builds in and gives us a few days of dry weather and a break from the rain.  Won't last long - weather models suggest the ridge will break down and rain will return by about Thursday of next week.

On a personal note - very sad to hear about Marin Local Dan Dafoe who went missing this past Wednesday in the water off Fort Cronkhite.  I did not know Dan personally, but remember seeing him in the water over the years.  Prayers to his family, friends and all the surfers that knew him.

No break in the weather or swell ahead.....

Storm systems are lined up all the way across the Pacific to Japan.  Look for rain to continue through next week - on and off - a day or two between storms.  As such - winds will fluctuate between south as the systems come ashore switching to the southwest/west/northwest as fronts pass.  Rain and mountain snow to keep going.  Large swell events to continue on and off - with the next bigger swell event slated for this weekend - with deepwater heights going back into the 14-18ft range far north - a bit smaller Bay Area Saturday/Sunday.  Check your winds - protected spots will be best - in fact Santa Barbara is probably your best option this year - most of the swell and not as much weather.  Cya in the water.

El Nino Rules

As forecast months ago and fully expected - January arrived and El Nino is in full control of our weather and swell.  Pacific storms continue to line up across the Pacific - all the way back to Japan fueled by an ocean/atmospheric connection that in many ways has now even eclipsed the 1997 El Nino in terms of strength.  Remains to be seen if we see the same copius amounts of rainfall we had with the 97' event - but if we stay at our current pace no reason that won't happen.  Deep water heights running around 16-20ft today at 15+ seconds.  Heights will dip for the weekend - back into the 8-12ft range mostly - but still large.  Swell looks to run back up starting next week.  Winds are going to be north/northwest/some east (fairly light) the next few days - so spots sheltered from the wind, and can shape the swell will be best.  South to southeast winds will return late in the weekend as another storm system takes aim on the West Coast.  That system will be more organized - until then on and off chances of rain with weaker impulses moving through the flow towards the West Coast.  Cya in the water.