NEW ZEALAND SOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND.....

 Decent run of south/southwest swell underway this week - hovering around 2ft at 17 seconds 215.   These swells originated to the east of NZ and moved north some which always increases the size of the swell inbound.   The bigger of the two swells due to arrive late week - probably overnight Thursday for long period forerunners and filling in through the day on Friday to 3ft at 17 seconds from 215.   Swell should stick around through the weekend.   Now for the winds - northwest gales continue today and will lighten up through the week and finally turning light north on Friday, then strongly out of the south over the weekend as we have a late season, very strong storm system that is due to hit Nor Cal over the weekend bringing rain, wind to areas mostly north of Santa Cruz.   So plenty to ride just gotta hit the right spots with the winds.   Cya in the water!  

THAT'S A WRAP ON THE N PAC FOR THE SEASON....S PAC BUSY.....

 N Pacific swell machine has shut down for the season - but windswell will remain the primary source of any kind of waves for the foreseeable future with high pressure in control and the gradient between that and low pressure over the Central Valley/Southwest creating brisk winds out over the ocean and very cold water temps.  Pt Arena showing water temp of 46.8 this am!  Chilly.   Southern Hemisphere is active and while there are no major south swells on the horizon we do have a long run of smaller south swell in the water now.  Swell will hover around 2ft at 17 seconds from 190 - gradually fading out by Sunday.   NW winds will blow quite hard for the next seven days and beyond - in fact probably just keep blowing until the fog bank sets up for summer or we get into September - ha.   So - seek out your protected wind spots that like south swell, grab a floaty board and you can ride.  Cya in the water.   

SOUTHERN HEMI AWAKE, NORTH PAC NOT DONE YET

Swell in the water from every direction right now - new southwest is 2.9@20 seconds and the northwest is holding well at 8@15 seconds.  Southwest direction is around 205 - NW is 295 - both pretty ideal directions for N Cal breaks.   Winds have trended south for the most part due to the low pressure systems brushing N Cal - with rain from the Sonoma County/Mendocino County line north to Oregon.  Heavier rain further north you go.  Looks for things to stay unsettled through about next Wednesday with on and off light bouts of showers.   Swell will remain in the water from both hemispheres for the most part - changing some day to day.  Winds will be highly variable depending on frontal passages and Northwest winds blowing behind each front.  So keep an eye on the winds, plenty of swell around and options abound.   Cya in the water.    

UPDATE FORECAST 4-21 - XL SWELL INBOUND

Last storm pulling through today and will clear out over the weekend.  For Bay Area and south - that might be it for a while - north will still see some chances of rain on and off into May.   Low pressure does appear to hang around the N Pac for a while - so we could end up having a wet May.   Some areas north of Bodega have seen upwards of 8 inches of rain since this storm cycle started earlier in April.   As for waves - XL swell just hitting the outer buoys - Mendocino is showing 10ft @18 seconds.  Papa Buoy looks to have peaked overnight at 24ft @16 sec.  Pretty solid for late April.   This new swell is pretty west - 288 deg and was supercharged by extratropical storm Malakas which traveled across the N Pac this week.   Look for south winds today changing to west on Friday and then going northwest over the weekend.  There will be decent swell through Monday at this point - just smaller each day.   Winds will more than likely be the issue - so check it.   Plenty of swell around however.  Cya in the water.  

APRIL - 4-2 UPDATED FORECAST

 No break from the northwest winds - water temps have dropped to 48 far north, low low 50s Bay Area to the south.  We do have some good size swell moving in early next week - it will peak Tuesday at 14-16 ft at 16 seconds - still some size Wednesday and fade more Thursday.   But those pesky north winds will not much give us much of a break - other than Monday.   The storm that created the incoming swell due to move over N Cal late Sunday into Monday morning.  Likely no rain south of Sonoma County - but wetter the further north you go.   After that - high pressure builds back in with a warm up - maybe a hint of rain next weekend - but nothing that is going to really help at this point.   Keeping an eye on the southern hemisphere - waiting for things to wake up down under.   Until then, enjoy this upcoming swell - might be the last one for a while.   Cya in the water.  

MARCH

March 1st is the traditional end to our "good" wave season as most of you know who have followed my blog for years as well as living and surfing in Nor Cal.   The days get longer, wind stronger and N Pac swells less reliable.   Not to say we can't have swell production well into April from the N Pac, but odds slowly decrease, especially this year, with a fading La Nina.   It does look like for the next week or so we will have some weather - including much needed rain - our current large west swell will continue to fade into midweek.   Issue will be the winds building out of the northwest through the week - getting quite strong by weeks end.  We will see another mid period Gulf swell build in tomorrow from 290-295 - peaking around 7@14 seconds, fading late Thursday.   Then wind swell will take over Friday into the weekend.  Because of ongoing storm activity in the N Pac - we could see more swells well into the first week of March and beyond - will update on those later this week.  So, plenty to ride, keep an eye on the winds.   Cya in the water!  

WINTER RETURNS.....UPDATED FORECAST 2-22

Cold system dropping south today is bringing light rain, low elevation snow and hail to Nor Cal.  Winds have been howling over the ocean for a few days now - ocean temps responding accordingly - Pt Arena Buoy is 49 deg and dropping.  SF Buoy, low 50s.   It's going to get quite cold the next few nights and as we head towards March the pattern looks to remain unsettled.   High pressure, which has been camped out for almost two full months in and around the west coast is building back in, but will retreat some to the west as we head into March allowing for some storms to dive in on the back side - like October/December, however these storms will have less moisture to work with.  That said, we will take anything we can get.   Swell production wise - the N Pac is active and we will start to see progressively larger swell trains as we head into the weekend and following week.   Forerunners of this coming weekend swell will run in Friday night - 2ft at 24 seconds to start!  Saturday should start out 7-9 ft, long periods with swell maxing on Sunday at 10-12ft, long periods.   Winds look to drop off briefly Friday, but ramp back up Saturday from the south 15-20 kts, and Sunday, 10-15 kts from the south as we have a chance of rain starting Saturday.   Upshot, lot of weather in our forecast along with swell.  Should be stuff to ride if you know where to look!  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - FEB 11

 Small west swells to move through the waters and light winds until Monday.   A storm system will drop down the west coast Monday into Tuesday - northwest winds will increase strongly behind front passage and last through mid week at least.  Meager amounts of rain down to about the Mendo/Sonoma County line is all we will squeeze out of this one.  High pressure builds back in behind it - at least until next weekend and then we might see the pattern change the models have been hinting at for 4-6 weeks now.  Should see some big wind swell Monday and Tuesday, larger long period northwest swell looks to roll in next Wednesday.  Overall, waves around, might favor the beach breaks this weekend with the smaller size.  Cya in the water. 

FEBRUARY IS THE NEW APRIL

Well, it sure looks like spring time even though Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow which means six more weeks of winter.  No rain in sight through Mid Feb.   Long term predictions still show some sign of hope later in the month - lets hope those models are right.  Otherwise we are about to enter the 2nd driest period on record over the course of a winter.  The driest?  1976 drought induced winter.   Otherwise - we have a lot of wind, lot of wind swell and cold water as the temps are dropping fast.   There are some small nw swells moving through the waters this week, but hardly noticeable due to the dominant wind swell.  You can probably find some places to ride that are sheltered from the nw wind and like big steep wind swell.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 1-14

 Quick note that the California Buoy is back in place and reporting again.  This is a good intermediate buoy between the Papa Buoy and our offshore buoys to get a good sense of incoming swell trains and swell decay.   The large swell of the past week is fading some today, but still solid up north (11ft @11-12 sec), smaller SF Area to Santa Cruz.   Swell will hold today and a new west swell will run in under starting at 2ft@21 seconds.   Strong north winds over the outer waters will fade tonight and the weekend looks really nice with fun size north and west swells 7-9 ft at 14 sec and 2-3 at 16 sec.  Direction about 295 to 305.  MLK Day looks smaller and still very clean with the winds.  No rain in sight until end of Jan as we are locked down under high pressure again.   There are signs as we move into February the pattern will change again and may remain stormy well into March.   So enjoy the nice run of weather and swells from far away storms.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - 12-20

Stormy week ahead as low pressure sits offshore and spins waves of rain through CA.   Very strong south to southeast winds look like the rule through mid week - then changing to west winds on Thursday and Friday.   Look for good size south wind swell to develop starting today - mixed in with periods of longer period northwest swell through the week.  Things may clean up some towards Christmas - until then if you have a spot that likes south winds and south wind swell - that's your call.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-7

Storm door has opened again after a long dry spell.  Series of fronts will push through well into next week with the strongest storm looking like it will happen late in the weekend into Monday.   Swell looks to stay quite small actually until Thursday/Friday when a new northwest swell train starts to hit the Coast, look for deepwater heights on Friday of 10-12 ft.  We will see a lot of wind with these next few systems, cold winds from the northwest and cold temps later in the week - in other words - Winter in Nor Cal!  Spots with some protection from the wind will be the best bet.   Looking ahead into Mid December the N Pac is going to stay active and we will likely see an increase in larger swells to follow.   More on that to come.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 11-19

New mid period swell slowly filling in today - 8-10ft at 11-13 seconds.  Winds have switched to the north with the passage of the low pressure system that came through.   Look for north winds on Saturday, switching to northeast Sunday.   Swell will come down a notch Saturday - 7-9ft, and drop further on Sunday, 6-8ft.   Swell looks to stay fairly tame into the start of Thanksgiving week - and light winds at least on Monday.  Winds and swell might tick up some on Tuesday.    High pressure should maintain control of our weather pattern through next weekend.  Signs of a stronger storm track on the horizon for early December when the pattern might start to get stormy again.   Until then, fun size surf to ride - check the winds.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 11-8

 Incoming storm tonight will drop copious amounts of rain through tomorrow and then we will dry out for a while as high pressure builds.   Swell is only 7-8ft at 12 seconds.   Winds will pick up strong out of the southeast as the day goes on and get very strong tonight.   Looking for swell to stay in the 9ft plus zone through Wednesday, then slow fade into Friday getting fairly small by then (4-6ft).   Variable winds the next few days, southeast to west - then turning north as we head into the weekend.  So, surf around if you know where to look with the changing winds.   Cya in the water. 

40 ft at 16 seconds!

Papa Buoy is showing 40ft at 16 seconds - let that sink in for a bit.   That is in vicinity of where our current storm is bottoming out (or bomb cyclone) as the forecasters like to call it - when the pressure drops  24 millibars in 24 hours, which our current storm almost doubled that!   Anyway - that's the swell inbound for tonight and as we start the week.  Not that surfing conditions our ideal - it's a mess out there and probably crazy to drive anywhere on the Coast.   Give it a few days as high pressure looks to re build mid week.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-23 - BIG AND STORMY

 Super charged N Pac Jetstream is sending a wave of early season storms to the West Coast.  La Nina is back for year two, but because it's displaced further West this season, the storm track is riding up and over and delivering much needed rain and snow to CA.  It's also delivering XXL surf, south winds and slop.  The next giant swell train lands Sunday night - 18-20ft at 18 seconds with SW winds and an atmospheric river (AR) event, first decent one of the season and best we've seen in a long while - that will deliver copious amounts of rain to the entire region.   Swell will max out Monday - 23-25ft at 18 seconds!  Slow fade into mid week when high pressure finally builds in giving us a break.   Next Wednesday might be the first surf day for many (most likely for me) when we get north winds and more mortal size surf in the 9-11 ft range.  Until then, there are some spots that will harness this kind of size and swell if you know where to look.  Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 10-11

It's windy and raw over the open ocean this morning as north to northwest winds drive down CA along with a dry "inside slider" cold front.   Ocean has responded and wind swell has jacked up 10ft plus and water temps are tumbling far north - already back to 52 and falling.   Look for big wind swell and some northwest swell mixed in all week - not clean unless you hit a south facing point that can handle the wind and sort out of the confusion.  Not really seeing any break in the winds the entire week, no rain in sight either as high pressure maintains control over CA.   Cya in the water.   

BIG NORTHWEST SWELL AND WIND

 Northern Buoys reading 14ft @14 from 310.  Swell is peaking tonight and will begin a slow fade into the weekend.   Unfortunately northwest winds have come in behind the front that departed yesterday and look to stick around most of the week.  Plenty of swell to ride, just need to find shelter from the winds.  Water temps have been warm but may begin to drop with the non stop winds over the outer waters.  Cya in the water.  

N Pac Awakes

 Solid Gulf of Alaska swell in the water today, built in overnight.  Running 6-10 ft from 310 (steep angle) at 14 seconds, larger north of the Sonoma Coast.  Winds are north to offshore.   Winds may not be much of a factor the next two days and then transition to more onshore - then back to north or offshore into the weekend.  Warm temps all the way to the Coast.  Fall.   Swell should stick around a good chunk of the week.  Cya in the water. 

GOOD RUN OF SOUTH SWELL COMING UP, GULF SWELL TOO....

 Proverbial calm before the storm.  Significant south swell trains inbound starting late Saturday and lasting through most of next week.   The first pulse late Saturday will start at 1.5ft at 20 sec from 200, building more on Sunday while a second pulse builds in on top at 2ft 19 seconds from 195.   At the same time, a small Gulf swell will run in Sunday to Monday - about 4ft at 12-13 seconds from 310.   Small, but fun.   Monday into Tuesday, third pulse of southern hemi builds at 2ft at 21 sec from 185.  Swell should gradually fade mid week on but still feature plenty to ride.  Winds will probably stay out of the northwest, but may also blow south to southwest depending on fog development through the period.  Northwest winds will be strongest over the outer waters.  Probably be some windows of decent conditions especially at certain spots up and down the Coast.   N Pac will stir more over the weekend into next week, fall pattern trying to set up shop.   Cya in the water.