UPDATED FORECAST 11-27

Large west/northwest swell in the water this morning - 12-14ft at 12-14 seconds.  Winds are already up from the northwest over the outer waters as our latest front has passed through.  Looks like more chances of light rain tonight and then again around Wednesday - however best chances of rain will north of Marin County.  Large swell will hold through all of entire next week - with some size changes through the period as one swell train enters and leaves our region.  It does look like high pressure will set up over the Eastern Pacific and keep us dry through late week.  This will also ramp up the north to northwest winds and decrease water temps.   Check the winds daily as near shore winds might be lighter for AM sessions.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 11-20

Large West swell hitting today - 12-15ft at 15 seconds from 290 +.  Winds are south and will switch to northwest later in the day as the current storm system exits the region.  For the week ahead - look for three more storm systems to come ashore - Tuesday, Thursday and next weekend.  Swell will stay fairly elevated from the West through the week - with a few spikes in size, Wednesday into Thursday.  Winds will turn south as each front comes ashore, northwest behind.  Plenty to ride - just need to keep an eye on the winds.   Happy Thanksgiving.  Cya in the water.

UPDATE FORECAST 11-14, WEST SWELL CONTINUES....

Big tides the next two days as the Moon is the closest it's been to Earth in the past 68 years.  Winds are light/offshore at the coast and light northwest at the buoys.  Swell is 6ft @13 from 295.  Rain tonight north, slight chance of rain down to SF Bay.  Swell will wind up tomorrow into Wednesday - back in the 10-13ft range (deepwater) with periods 15-17 seconds.  Surf will stay elevated into Thursday - drop some by Friday.  A stronger storm system will come in by the weekend along with strong south winds and rising storm swell.  Rain will be likely north to south into Saturday morning.  Plenty of swell to ride.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - MORE SWELL ON WAY

Get out an vote today.  Great few days past with large swell and fairly decent conditions.  Another large west swell is set to roll in here late today through tomorrow - deep water heights should climb back into the 14-15ft @17 seconds range.  Winds do look light for the rest of the week as high pressure builds over CA shunting the jet stream far to the north.  Slight fade in size Thursday (8-10ft deepwater) then the surf will climb back up again for the weekend as another swell rolls in (12-14ft deepwater).  Chance of rain far north late Friday into Saturday but otherwise high pressure looks to be the main player for a dry November after a very rainy October.  Cya in the water.

WEEKEND FORECAST

Solid West swell this morning - 12ft @14 from 290.  Winds are blowing offshore.  Pretty epic morning ahead.  One more nice day in store before a Pacific Weather system drops rain over the weekend - probably as far south as SF but likely no further.  Most of the rain will fall in the North Bay.  Swell will stay elevated through the weekend as a reinforcing shot of West swell enters are waters on Saturday keeping deepwater heights in the 12-15ft range.  Winds will turn southwest Saturday and then light northwest back on Sunday as high pressure regains control.  The upper atmosphere jet stream and winds remain locked in a very stagnant pattern with high pressure over the West/Texas and low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska.  We sit just on the far western edge of the high - not solid enough to keep storms out but just strong enough to knock them down some as they come ashore.  However, with low pressure anchored in the Gulf, don't look for swell trains to end anytime soon.  The N Pacific is pretty agitated from the past 2-3 weeks of storm circulations and that will continue.  Cya in the water.

HALLOWEEN UPDATED FORECAST 10-31

Another storm system poised to come ashore later this morning bringing rain and south winds.  How much rain have we had this October already?  Santa Rosa is about seven inches above normal (normal is a bit over two inches) for the month - while Crescent City is almost 15 inches above normal for the month.  Low pressure remains anchored in the North/Northeast Pacific spiraling systems and swell trains towards the West Coast.  South winds today with northwest swell leftovers from 8-9 ft at 11 seconds.  Winds will shift to west overnight, with a bump up in northwest swell tomorrow to 9-13ft at 13 seconds.  Might be something to ride at the more sheltered spots.  Wednesday will feature light south winds, deepwater swell 6-8 at 14 seconds.  Thursday and Friday, lighter north to northwest winds and a XXL swell cranks up pushing deepwater heights back to 12-16ft range.  Looks like after today the frequency of the systems will slow down as high pressure tries to regain control, but chance of rain Wednesday, far north and then a better chance over the weekend.   Plenty to ride, have to look around and know your spots that will work with the variable winds all week long.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 10-24-16

I'll be out later this week and this will be the only post through next Sunday.  Very stormy pattern has set up for us and we will see bouts of rain on and off through next weekend and possibly beyond.  West to northwest swells will propagate across the Pacific through the period along with mostly south to southwest winds, some northwest winds behind fronts as they pass through.  Should be plenty of surf on tap, finding a spot clean to ride will be the main issue.  Might be a good week to get some work done.  I'll post an updated forecast next Monday.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST, TWO NEW LINKS IN FORECAST SECTION

I've added two links in the Forecast Links section on the right of the page. NOAA Wavewatch III Model with NE Pacific animations and US West Coast.  These are good models to view incoming swell trains.  La Jolla Scrips server has been offline for over a week now - so I deleted NOR Cal Buoy link and Combined Pacific Buoy links from that site.  I'll keep checking back and if they come online will add them back to the page.

Swell wise - fading northwest swell from earlier this week remains in the water today - about 5ft @11 seconds.  New swell will start to show late tonight, north first and then be quite solid for Saturday.  Look for deepwater swell to jump to 10ft at 15 seconds for Saturday.  Swell direction 290-310.  Swell will hold into Sunday and then begins to fade for Monday.

Winds are blowing northwest right now strongly over the outer waters, lighter near shore.  Fog has returned to much of the Northern Coast of CA.  High pressure hanging over us until about Sunday when the weather pattern begins to shift to a wet one - with rain starting late Sunday night very far north and making it's way to Marin/SF Bay by late Monday or Tuesday.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 10-18

High pressure gradually building over the Pacific in the wake of our weekend storms which brought anywhere from 5 inches of rain North Bay and SC Mountains, to around an inch or more around the Bay Area.  North to northwest winds will be the rule the rest of the week, especially over the outer waters and far north.  Next significant swell looks to line up for next Friday into Sunday - deepwater swell heights to push 9-12ft on Saturday.  Until then - windswell and mid period northwest swell/or fading northwest swell the remainder of the week.  I'd check the winds each morning - near shore winds might be manageable for certain spots.  Next pattern change looks late Sunday into early next week with more rain forecast.  Cya in the water.

WEEKEND FORECAST - forgettabouitt

If you like your surf big and stormy, this weekend will be for you.  Northern Buoys are already 12-14ft with long periods plus 15 seconds and a larger swell is due for Sunday deepwater swell heights far north will be pushing 14-18ft.  Winds are south to southwest at around 22kts.  Storm #1 just going through the Bay Area now - should be a break later today and then a second system roars ashore for the weekend.  South to southwest winds through the period - don't see a shift to northwest winds until Monday when both systems have passed.  Go south if you want swell but no weather.  Cya in the water.

STORM DOOR OPENS MID WEEK AND BEYOND

First series of winter storms will begin to impact the Bay Area lateThursday and last through next weekend.  Heavy rain, winds and large storm surf will be the norm from late Thursday on.  Right now models hinting at a sustained and large swell train starting out 9-12ft deepwater Thursday night pushing to 15-17ft deepwater for Friday and Saturday.  Heights will drop to 12-15ft on Sunday.  South winds - very strong at times will be present through that period.  I'd say enjoy the relative calm before the proverbial storm over the next couple days with out small northwest swell in the water at 4-5ft at 13-15 seconds.  Fog is in, but winds are somewhat light depending on location until about Wednesday.  Should see some rather rogue and dangerous conditions late week.  Cya in the water.

WEEKEND FORECAST 10-7

N Pac swell is presently 3.5 @10 from a steep 320.  Nothing of interest from the S Pac.  Swell will continue to wind down through the weekend with lighter winds at least thru Sunday, especially for the mornings.  Not looking for any swell of significance just windswell 4-5ft at 9-10 seconds.   Things are suppose to get busier next week as the N Pac is quite active with storms at present and that activity should continue all the way through next weekend and bring rain to part of Nor Cal as well.  Will update late weekend.  cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST OCT 2

One system exiting the region tonight as another Pacific system following quickly behind will bring more rain to Nor Cal starting overnight far north, moving south through the Bay Area thru the day on Monday.  Winds will increase from the south all day , and switch to the northwest after front passage.   Swell will increase Wednesday and Thursday with deep water heights forecast to be 5-8ft (highest far north).  Winds look to stay elevated from the northwest most of the week, perhaps slowing down some towards next weekend.  Long range models are forecasting a large run of surf next week (starting around Oct 10th)  - still early days on that - but looks like we might see our first run of XL surf mid month.  Plenty of swell to ride until then, know your spots, check the winds.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 9-27

Southwest swell will be winding down through the day.  Another smaller run of south to southwest swell is due in Thursday through Saturday - this one should be good for shoulder to head high surf at best south facing breaks through the period.  Shorter period northwest swell and windswell will also be in the water Friday through the weekend.  Probably good for chest to head high at best north facing breaks.  Heat wave is over for now near the coast with onshore flow making a return later today with fog and coastal low clouds later.  Offshore winds will be gone too.  The rest of the week should feature northwest winds over the outer waters and far north - perhaps lighter conditions for morning sessions.  A storm system dropping down from the Gulf of Alaska will bring the first early season rain to far Northern California over the weekend, perhaps making it as far as Northern Sonoma County by Monday.  Bay Area should remain dry.  Cya in the water.

WEEKEND FORECAST

SW swell is pulsing up tonight - 2ft at 20 from 190-200.  Swell will peak tomorrow.  We will also see an increase WNW swell fill in Saturday - for overhead waves at the best north exposures.  Good weekend for surf.  Winds should be light early Saturday, trend up later in the day.  Better winds possible for Sunday with warm temps and perhaps offshore flow making it all the way to coastal areas.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST

Fall Equinox is Thursday.  Current northwest swell is winding down today but still 6-8ft at 14 seconds depending on location.  Windswell also in the water and a small southwest swell. Winds are light to variable or south also depending on location.  A few storm systems show up on the Pacific loop.  One will drop through the northwest and far Nor Cal tomorrow - slight chance of rain very far north near the Oregon border.  Another, larger system just coming under the Gulf of AK should send us swell for this coming weekend.  More on that around Thursday.  Until then - northwest swell will fade, windswell will probably rise up as brisk north to northwest winds will come in behind the front on Wednesday shredding things a bit.  Also does look like we may have a nice size southwest swell for the weekend too.  Starting to show around Friday and maxing out over the weekend.  Keep an eye on the winds, plenty of swell in the water, finding the right spot will be key.  Cya in the water.

PAPA BUOY BACK - UPDATE FORECAST

Papa Buoy is back online - 600 nm west of Eureka.  We once again have a good window to incoming swell trains this winter with Papa, West Oregon and California buoys all operating.  Keep an eye on those tomorrow as our new northwest swell shows.  Winds aren't ideal this morning - bit of onshore and northwest, light right now but should pick up later today.  It's small today mix of south and north facing swells, trace of tropical swell.  New northwest swell will begin to fill in late Saturday - probably overnight and build through the day Sunday.  Models are forecasting deepwater of 7ft at 14 seconds - will see if that shows.  It will be bigger further north you go, except for good north facing beaches around the Bay Area.  Keep an eye on the winds - will be lightest early thru the weekend.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - 9-14

Small northwest swell is showing today - 2-3ft at 13 seconds from 290.  This is from that system that was spinning in the Gulf over the weekend and as we started the week.  Small south in the water as well - deepwater running 2ft.  Look for the south swell to stick around through the week.  Current northwest swell will slowly fade out tomorrow with some left overs on Friday.  Attention turns to our weekend northwest swell when a longer period WNW 290-310 builds in Saturday (along with rising windswell).  This will be good for well overhead surf Saturday and Sunday points north, and good northwest facing spots around the Bay Area will get it on that action as well.  That swell will stick around until Monday.  Winds were pretty nice today as we had a bit of an offshore/southeast wind most of the day - sea breeze picked up late.  Winds look light Thursday as well, at least for the morning - then an uptick in northwest winds for Friday thru Sunday - at least over the outer waters.  As I've indicated, nearshore winds might not be bad - so check it each morning.  Finally there is some steep tropical/southeast swell from Orlene in the water which will only show at the most exposed south facing breaks tomorrow into Friday - but probably hard to notice with the more dominant south swell around.  Looking and feeling like Fall.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - HERE WE GO....

Sat photo to the right shows some decent activity starting up in the Nor Pac - as a storm has been crossing under the Aleutians for a couple days now and gaining traction over the open ocean.  Swell from this system will arrive Wednesday and Thursday this week.  Probably looking at 3-4 ft deepwater, 13-14 sec from about 294 both days.  Potentially bigger the further north you go.  Behind that - charts are showing more activity with a series of systems forming and delivering swell through the month of September - with a decent shot of surf forecast Sep 19-21.  More on that in the next week.  You will also notice south of Baja Tropical Storm Orlene - will keep an eye on this one as it might move into a more favorable swell window for us over the next 36 hours.  Finally, our current southwest swell, which provided fun waves all weekend is winding down into tomorrow, but there will still be some left overs around.  Winds this week are highly variable - going to blow northwest tomorrow shift south to southeast mid week, trend back to west/northwest late week.  Check it daily as AM winds might be ok for certain spots.  It is September and the heavy onshore flow we had all summer long should start to ease up - especially if systems starting dropping into the Great Basin on a regular basis to set up some offshore flow events. Plenty to ride the week ahead.  Check the winds.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - SEPT 8

As forecast, southerly winds and fog have returned to the coast this morning.  Long period forerunners of our southwest swell are just showing - 1.7 to 2 ft at 20 sec from 200.  Look for swell to build all day (it's a bit later than forecast) holding into tomorrow and then fading on Saturday.   Windswell remains in the water from the northwest along with slightly better pulses of northwest swell.  I am starting to see some activity in the North Pacific - a couple weak low pressure systems are moving through the upper region around the high pressure system that has been anchored there most of the summer.  Could see a bump up in mid period northwest swell late in the weekend into Monday - from 300 + periods 10-11 seconds.  Probably good for chest to head high surf far north and good Bay Area spots that have a window to the northwest.  Beyond that, could see a better shot of northwest swell next weekend and the first longer period swell of the season.  Wind forecast is tricky through the weekend.  Fog and southerly flow look to hang around - but could see light winds for the AM sessions, more onshore flow for the afternoons.  Check the winds.  Between the windswell/northwest and southwest swells in the water - should be plenty of surf.  Cya in the water.