Updated Forecast/Happy New Year

Clean conditions with east winds forecast to continue for New Years Day.  Deep water swell 5-7ft at 15 seconds, increasing on Saturday night to 6-8 at 17 seconds.  Swell will continue to increase through the weekend along with high pressure breaking down and the storm door opening up for the first week of 2016.  Winds will switch southeast to south Sunday and last through next Tuesday.  Get on it the next two days - past that it will be stormy, windy and hit and miss.  Cya in the water.

Merry Christmas/Updated Forecast

Merry Christmas to all that follow this blog.  Swell is running 11-12 ft at 305 this morning, size should trend down over the weekend (along with light winds Saturday morning).   I think tomorrow will be one of the "smaller" days we've had in a while - with deepwater heights in the 8-10ft range.  Swell will go smaller on Sunday but by then our next storm system will be knocking on the door with southwest winds ramping up through the day.  After that system passes we may have a few days of high pressure next week allowing for winds to remain light for morning sessions.  Swell will slowly creep back up Monday and into Tuesday - 11-14ft deepwater again by Tuesday.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/12-19

Frontal passage early this morning with widespread rain throughout the region.  Northwest winds are already blowing early as the next large NW swell begins to roll in.  Already showing 12 ft at 14 seconds far north - will be in later today and hang around through tomorrow.  Swell peaks tomorrow at 10-15 feet.  SW winds tomorrow as another system comes ashore with rain in the afternoon.  Winds go NW again on Monday behind that passing front - swell remains 9-12 ft at 14 seconds.  NW winds will blow through Wednesday as we remain in a low pressure influenced environment - enhanced by El Nino - with storms lined up across the Pacific and dropping north to south along CA bringing rain, winds, mountain snow through Christmas.  By now you can probably see the pattern for the winter - rain, swell, wind.  Repeat.  We still have the heart of winter to come and i expect January thru February to be very active.  No shortage of waves to ride - just need to find places tucked in from whatever wind direction is active each day.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Week of 12-14

XXL large run of swell continues this morning with Pt Reyes showing 19ft at 12 seconds from 305.  Some of the biggest nearshore readings in a very long time were regarding this past Thursday with northern buoys showing 30-32 ft at 17 seconds for a few hours.  Rain, gale force winds accompanied all this swell and strong northerly gales continue today over the ocean with wind speeds still clocking 25-30kts.  Swell should peak today and move into more mortal territory through the week in the 8-10 ft range.  "Lightest" morning winds look like Wednesday, but no real clean offshore/calm wind events look likely for the week ahead.  In fact, another storm system will roll in next weekend, looking similar to this past weekend's system.  The good news with all this rain, swell, wind - lots of places up and down the CA Coast that need weather to open for business (river mouths, beach breaks) etc will start to get good, if they haven't already, just need the right combination of swell, tide and weather.  Cya in the water.

Biggest swell in many years set to roll in late week

The North Pacific is a conveyor belt of large low pressure systems right now and will be for the rest of the week.  Ocean surface is already agitated and primed from a week of strong winds and large surf.  This coming Thursday and Friday we might see one of the largest long period swells to come ashore in a long time.  Deepwater forecasts are calling for northwest swell 18-21ft at 17 seconds around the Bay Area - 20-24ft at 17 seconds! - north of Bodega Bay.  That's deepwater before it shoals, jacks and feels the bottom at area points, reefs and beaches which will crank up face heights dramatically.  Lots of weather coming in with this swell train - with rain starting Wednesday night and running through Thursday.  Winds too - west winds 15-25kts.  Surf and winds stay elevated through Sunday.  Another chance of rain Saturday night into Sunday.  El Nino making his presence known.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/12-7 Storm and Swell Door Open

December in Nor Cal - huge surf and weather systems lined up across the Pacific thanks to Mr El Nino.  Large WNW swell cranking up tonight - will be 15-20ft (deepwater) by Monday morning.  Look for light morning winds around the Bay Area, south winds further north.  Storm track is aimed right at Washington/Oregon and far Northwest California - with a complex low pressure system covering the entire North Pacific.  Periods of rain and wind look likely for far north the entire week with the best shot of heavy rain around the Bay Area on Thursday.  Swell to stay elevated through the week - not quite as big as tomorrow - but still plenty of size.  Check your winds, know your spots.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/12-3

Past few days featured east winds, large clean waves at Ocean Beach and other spots along the Central/North Coast.  Sat picture tells the story of change ahead.  A very strong storm system is moving onshore today with gale force south winds forecast and victory at sea conditions expected.  Swell is going to jump back up into the 14-20ft range - (biggest north of Cape Mendocino) - and stay large through the weekend.  In fact don't look for deep water swell heights to drop much below 10 ft through Monday with back to back West swells rolling through here as a result of a very active and strong storm pattern in the Gulf of Alaska, East and West Pacific.  El Nino is ramping up as we move more into the winter season.  Everything we've had so far in terms of rain and swell is just a teaser for the Jan-Mar time period when the current El Nino will be in full bloom and maturing.  Strong south winds today 20-30kts gusting to 45kts, and then pretty much light south winds through Sunday.   Spots that like that wind direction will be clean, but large.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/11-27

East winds along with cold high pressure ruling our weather the past two days and should continue into the weekend.  Deepwater swell on Saturday forecast to come up to 4-6ft at 14 seconds and then jump further on Sunday at 4-6ft at 20 seconds as a new long period swell fills into the region.  That swell will build to 9-11ft on Monday.  East winds look to stick around for Sunday and then shift SE Monday as a weak storm system comes ashore.  Chance for rain will increase mid to late next week.  Good conditions and plenty of swell the next few days.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/11-24

Strong low pressure system is moving through Northern California tonight with very cold temps, low snow levels and a lot of wind.  Ocean has responded to the system offshore - with Cape Mendo showing 17ft at 12-13 second intervals.  Not sure all the models have a good handle on this swell but look for deepwater in the 6-10ft range by sunrise tomorrow.  NW wind the rule and very cold temps for the early morning sessions.  Swell will quickly trend down through Thanksgiving Day and into Saturday - winds may improve for the morning sessions.  By Sunday, another large swell will roll in pushing deep water heights back up in the 8-12ft range.  We may see a fairly extended run of elevated surf through Dec 5th if the models are correct as the El Nino infused North Pacific gets energized with low pressure systems lining up and ramping up.  Plenty of swell on tap - check the winds and know your spots.  Happy Thanksgiving and cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast/11-19

Ridge of high pressure in control for a few more days as our run of northwest swell continues to fade into and through the weekend.  Northwest swell running 6-7 ft at 11 seconds - larger to our north.  North to northwest winds are blowing strongest in the outer waters and should remain strong until Saturday.  Best conditions will most likely be in the mornings for the next couple of days.  By Sunday swell should be in the 3-5ft range.  Big changes starting around Monday as a large area of cold low pressure will drop down from the Gulf of Alaska for the holiday week bringing wind, some rain and much colder temps.  Would expect to see swell increase as well but could be a mess with all the wind.  More on that late in the weekend.  Water temps have cooled now - running in the mid 50's.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Saturday 11-14

Booming long period swell showing early at 9-10ft at 20 seconds from the north/northwest.  Swell will increase into the very large range all day (already 19ft at 18 seconds up near Cape Mendo).  A vigorous storm system is digging south all day and will spread rain north to south overnight.  Winds will increase from the southwest overnight and switch to northwest behind the front on Sunday.  Swell will stay large through Monday.  Winds will stay northwest as well, switching to north mid week as swell fades but remains moderate sized through Wednesday.  Constellation Orion is rising a bit higher and early each night in the east.  Gotta love fall and winter in Nor Cal.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/11-8

Solid swell from the North Pacific will stick around all next week as back to back swells roll ashore.  Large NW swell currently in the water will peak tomorrow - deepwater heights in the 8-12ft range.  Swell will ease some Tuesday and more on Wednesday but remain quite solid.  Then a new swell will charge in next Thursday/Friday pushing deepwater heights back to the 6-10 ft range.  Winds look bad on Monday as the storm system bringing rain to parts of Nor Cal will come onshore during the day.  Winds may clean up from Tuesday on - at least for the morning sessions.  Check the winds - plenty of swell in the water.  Fall is starting to pop.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/11-3

Strong early season storm brought large swell, rain and mountain snow to CA yesterday.  In it's wake, north/northwest to northeast winds blowing today and swell continues quite solid at 9-12 ft at 11 seconds at 300.  Look for surf to stay somewhat elevated all week fading some by Friday and then jumping up again next weekend into the large range.  North to northwest winds most of the week, but check it each morning as winds may be lighter for the AM sessions.  Plenty to ride, just hit a spot you know will be clean.  Next shot of rain will be Sunday/Monday.  Cya in the water.

Next Forecast on 11-3

I'm away this weekend so won't be updating the blog.  I can say there is plenty of swell headed our way - some wind and rain too by Sunday/Monday.  Check the winds and buoys.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/10-25

Interesting week of weather past, Patricia, the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere (and a product of this year's El Nino) came ashore south of Puerto Vallarta with sustained winds of 200mph.  Higher gusts were recorded around 248mph while the system was still offshore.  Winds equivalent to an F4 tornado.  Because the storm came ashore between major population centers damage was extensive, but not catastrophic as forecast.  By now you probably also read about the cluster of large great whites sighted by the US Coast Guard between OB and Pacifica - fairly close to shore.  Interesting as well, perhaps related to the warm surface temps - doubt anyone knows for sure.  Uncle Whitey is out there.   For today, new good size WNW swell is filling in this morning and pushing surf heights back to double overhead range at top winter breaks with exposure to the swell direction.  Winds are light onshore.  Look for the swell to increase all day and peak tomorrow with deepwater swell in the 6-10ft range.  Lighter winds tomorrow morning.  The remains of Hurricane Olaf, now well north and east of Hawaii will get entrained by a strong Gulf of Alaska low over the next 24-48 hours.  The winds will increase over the open waters and send a good size swell our way mid week - with deep water heights back in the 6-10ft range on Wednesday and 8-12ft on Thursday.  Unfortunately, weather from this system may come ashore at the same time making a mess of things from a wind stand point.  Something to keep an eye on.  Surf will stay elevated into next weekend with a gradual improvement in the winds as high pressure regains control.  Plenty of size the next few days - check the winds.  Cya in the water.

Week Ahead/Updated Forecast 10-20

Lots of surf on tap this week with west/northwest, southwest and some tropical south/southwest in the water.  Pretty much west northwest swell in the water today and tomorrow (shoulder to head hight plus) - then a larger swell builds in late Thursday and Friday with deepwater swell peaking on Friday in the 8-10ft range.  Tropical southwest swell from Hurricane Olaf, out near Hawaii will mix in Thursday and Friday as well.  For sure the dominant swell will be the northwest which should keep waves going through next weekend as a new pulse moves in next Sunday.   Southwest swell in the background all week as the South Pacific remains very active for this time of year.  Winds should stay pretty light for am sessions this week - offshore flow trying to set up but might not make it all the way to the coast each day.  NO rain in the forecast through the period - but models are hinting at perhaps a pattern change over a week out.  Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast/October 16th

Nice couple of days past - small mix of southwest and northwest swells and light winds.  Storm system in the Gulf of Alaska will drop in overnight and spread rain from far Northwest CA thru the Bay Area.  Rain amounts around here will be very light a few hundredth's if we're lucky - most of the precipitation will fall from Sonoma County north.  Swell will come in late tomorrow - peaking late Saturday into Sunday.  Look for double overhead waves Sunday at north facing breaks.  Swell will be on the slow rise all day tomorrow.  Unfortunately, northwest winds look to pick up late Saturday on behind the front.  Lightest winds tomorrow morning for sure, maybe again Sunday AM.  But afternoons will feature stronger onshore winds.  Check it for sure.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Monday October 12th

Pt Arena is back online.  Along with the CA Buoy back and Pt Reyes Deepwater we have our eyes to the swells once again.   Large west swell is winding down today - 7-8 ft at 11 seconds.  Look for this swell to hang around a good part of the week.   Winds don't look that bad until about Friday when things might pick up from the northwest again.  Solid southwest swell is in the water - 3ft at 18-20 seconds and we should have overlapping southwest swells through most of the week.  Slight chance of rain mid week, south of the Bay Area from a system that has retrograded north of Baja turned back to the west and moving to the northwest/northeast.    Better chance of rain next weekend as a system from the North Pacific drops in.  Check the winds each morning - plenty to ride.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Wednesday Oct 7th - Unusual swell on the way ** Welcome Back CA Buoy!

Hurricane Oho is east of Hawaii and now tracking quickly to the northeast getting caught up in a larger low pressure complex circulating in the Gulf.  What is unusual for us, a fairly large west/southwest swell will begin to fill in on Friday (230-260 deg) and we could see well overhead to double overhead sets at stand out breaks.  As Oho gets absorbed into the larger system swell will turn northwest (270-300 deg) late this weekend and hold thru the middle of next week.  Stand out winter breaks will certainly be overhead and possibly larger - i'll update on that swell late this weekend.  Lightest winds will be found each morning - especially Thurs/Friday around the Bay Area.  Farther north winds might be a bit more suspect as northwest CA is much closer to the storm energy that will be impacting Oregon and Washington.  The pipe is wide open from way south of Hawaii all the way to BC.  Encouraging this early in the season and the thinking is as we get a bit later into the Fall and Winter set ups like that will start to focus the energy and rain onto CA.  Let's hope so.  If you open the Pacific Satellite link to the right and click on the 16k or 28k infrared imagery you will see all the energy flowing into the Northwest.  It's impressive for early October.  El Nino slowly starting to assert influence on the jet stream in the Pacific.  This El Nino, it's signature is very different from 97' or 82' - it's taking it's sweet time developing.  A slow train wreck and the full impact probably won't be felt until the heart of the winter - Jan to Mar.    One more small day and then things will get busy.  Check the winds.  I suspect more than a few unusual spots will open up on that first west/southwest shot starting Friday.  Cya in the water.  Finally, CA Buoy is once again back online and starting to transmit.  Just in time too.  This gives us a window out to incoming swell trains 350 nautical miles west of San Francisco.

Updated Forecast/Sunday Oct 3

Pt Reyes Buoy showing 10-12 ft at 10-12 seconds from 310 at this hour.  Unseasonably strong upper low pressure system is dropping straight down CA from Canada bringing gale force winds over the ocean and land.  Winds will peak between 10pm and 2am tonight and then slowly start to diminish on Sunday.  Swell heights to our far north will be 12-18 ft by the morning, lower past Pt Reyes.  Water temps as you might expect are starting to fall - dropping 2 degrees at Bodega in the past 12 hours or so.  I'd expect another couple degrees by mid day tomorrow.  Model guidance earlier this week really missed the size of the mid period swell also in the water and i believe most other forecasters are under calling wave heights for the current event.  I'd look for overhead surf tomorrow morning at north facing breaks with wind - smaller at south facing spots.  Check the winds, should be plenty of swell around.   Quick look ahead to next week should feature much smaller surf.  Next interesting run looks to be around mid month.  Stay tuned and i'll update again next week.  Cya in the water.