Dog Days....

These are the darkest times of the year to be a surfer in Nor Cal.  About a month to go before the start of the surfing fall season - so hang tight.  If you look around, you can see very early signs (quite early in fact) of the season to come.  In West Marin, local elm and maples are showing color along with the Redwoods.  Could be drought induced and the trees are saying the hell with it and going into early hibernation, or a sign of an early fall and perhaps rainy season.  Time will tell.  El Nino continues to gather momentum and all will be revealed soon enough.  In the meantime, big warm up this week and that might extend enough to the coast to give us a break from the onshore winds and fog.  High pressure moving over us from the East.  A new southwest swell will start to fill in tomorrow and run through Thursday.  Peak day is Wednesday.  Should be good for chest high with some plus sets at good south facing breaks.  Angle of approach 210-225.  Just nw windswell right now from the N Pac.  Nothing on the charts beyond.  Next few mornings should feature light winds.  Cya in the water.

JULY - Updated Forecast

Run of southwest swells looks to start up next week.  All from the that super storm that started in the Indian Ocean, moved east under Australia and charged north past New Zealand.  Around these parts surf won't be as big as pictures and videos you've know doubt seen from Indo, etc - but we can expect an extended run of swell from this storm through mid month.  Look for things to start on Monday and go through next weekend.  Right now, probably deepwater swell in the 2-3 ft range - maybe larger at times - should be good for chest high surf at south facing breaks, also larger sets at times.  We also have a pulse of short to mid period swell from a Gulf of Alaska storm that developed over the past couple days.  Look for that to be 4-5ft at 9-10 seconds moving in Sat/Sun - biggest north of SF.  Water temps have warmed nicely (55-57 deg) since the wind machine stopped off Cape Mendo.   This is due to strong high pressure in the Great Basin with a low trough over CA, advecting monsoon moisture up from Baja along with s/se winds.  That should start to change by the end of the weekend and we will get back to more of a northwest flow.  It's still summer, so check the winds which will be highly variable based on location over the next few days.  Cya in the water.

Almost July, El Nino still developing

Looks like we may be headed for a better run of southwest swells starting later this weekend and going into Mid July.  An El Nino of some magnitude is looking more and more likely for the Fall/Winter of 2015/16.  Experts are hinting that it will be somewhere between the Super Nino of 97 and the strong El Nino of 82 - which wouldn't be a bad thing.  Still another month or so to go before we're clear on the strength of this event - but growing more certain it will impact our winter and surf next season.  I will return with regular updates/forecast on September 1.  Until then will update as needed or events warrant.  Cya in the water.

JUNE

Any way you cut it - June is normally tough - we're into the gloom, wind of springtime - but there are moments now and then.  Surf early, keep expectations low.  Hurricane Andres, only the fifth major hurricane to develop in the East Pac Basin this early is now a major storm with winds at 125kt and gusts to 145kt.  Some spots in Nor Cal will see swell from him later this week.  Angle of approach is going to be pretty steep at 165 degrees plus - so some spots may miss the swell completely.  In addition to Andres, we have steep windswell and some west/northwest groundswell through the week.  Winds are going to remain onshore all week - perhaps lighter mid week and beyond, at least for the morning sessions.  Should be stuff to ride from Wednesday on.  Cya in the water.

MAY

Hope you found some place to ride over the past few days on that really decent south swell that hit.  We're back to Gale Warnings, water temps will be in the upper 40s by Friday and we've got large, short period northwest windswell churning down the coast.  Don't look for any break in the winds - south facing spots offering protection will be best.  Another long period south swell looks to roll in this coming weekend (much smaller than this past event) but should provide something to ride.  Cya in the water.

Large Off Season NW Swell HIts 46002

Long period northwest swell started showing at the West Oregon Buoy 46002 - a few hours ago - 11-13 ft with periods 19-21 seconds.  About as forecast.  This buoy is roughly 450 miles north/northwest of SF and with the CA Buoy and Papa Buoy still out of commission - remains our offshore window to incoming swell trains.  Look for energy to start showing late in the day around these parts - earlier further north.  Swell will be in full force tomorrow with double overhead sets and larger at north facing breaks.  Winds look favorable - null to east around the Bay - still some northerly wind as you go up the Coast.  Might be a sea breeze late today and tomorrow before things turn more onshore for the weekend as energy in the Gulf goes up and over the ridge into the Pac NW.  Swell will stick around until Sunday - dropping in size and period each day.   Check the winds - am sessions will probably be the cleanest.  cya in the water.

APRIL

January to March this year was the driest period on record in the Bay Area.  April, it would appear is looking rather normal.  Water temps are hovering around 51-52 due to all the northwest winds for the past week and a fairly dynamic pattern is underway with storms brushing through to the north creating the wind and good size windswell.  Hope you got some of that rather decent southwest swell from former Super Cyclone Pam - which created a most impressive swell display across the Pacific.  Swell will remain elevated through the rest of this week with a mix of west groundswell and northerly windswell.  Winds will shred things the entire week from the northwest and probably drop water temps even lower by weeks end.  Ab season starts today.  Sport salmon season starts this Saturday.  Decent chance of rain by next Sunday into the following week.  Cya in the water.

Spring Happens

First day of Spring is Friday and right on cue it looks a lot like Spring around these parts.  Weatherman Bill Martin called it the other night by saying - "all you have to do is take a look at the North Pacific satellite feed, jet stream is pushing up into Alaska…"  so it goes.  El Nino has been declared (only by 0.5 degree of warmer than usual water temps).  California is in the 4th year of one of the worst droughts  on record and the surf for you and me looks average for the rest of the week with a combination of northwest windswell along with some west/northwest swell.  There will be some decent size tomorrow and into the weekend - issue will be northwest winds.   In fact water temps tumbled 3 degrees in 24hours last night at our northern buoys to 53.  Still holding steady at SF around 55 degrees.  I'd look towards next Sunday and Monday for the most size - but find a place protected from the winds.  Very small chances of rain far north this Friday and Saturday and then again early next week.  Be mindful of your water use this Spring and Summer - it's going to be a long off season.  Cya in the water.

MARCH

March 1st is traditionally the end of the winter surf season on the North Coast.  Colder water, northwest winds all mark the change of seasons.   We do have an early season south swell rolling in early next week so keep an eye on that.  Conditions in the South Pacific do indicate a better than average south swell season so let's hope that materializes.  Until then, windswell will be the primary source of swell for the time ahead, although i don't think the North Pac is ready to shut down completely just yet.  Will update as needed.  Cya in the water.

March looms…..

Fairly small surf prevails with an increase expected this weekend as another small West swell moves in along with potentially offshore winds near the Coast, but stronger northwest winds over the outer waters - a sign that Spring isn't too far away.  Forecast remains dry through the end of Feb so on and off good windows of surf should be found in between these north/northwest wind events being created by high pressure just offshore and to our north with systems moving up and over the ridge into the Great Basin.  Fun size surf should prevail through most of next week.  Cya in the water.

STORM DOOR OPENS

Major rain event unfolding offshore and will steam in here overnight bringing copious amounts of rain to Central/Northern California.  Gale warnings are up and south winds are already howling over the outer waters whipping up a big southwest swell (21ft) at Cape Mendo Buoy.  Going to be a mess for the next 2-4 days with up to 10-12 inches of rain when it's all over by Monday on the Sonoma Coast with lesser amounts further south but still plenty of rain to go around.  Unless you like big south winds and large storm swell - might not be an ideal weekend for surfing.  However, if you know the Coast - there are a few spots that actually might not be too shabby over the next few days.  Enjoy the rain.  Cya in the water.

FEBRUARY

It hasn't rained in Northern California since December 24.  SF set the record for the driest January since the City has been keep records - over 165 years.  Ridge of high pressure has brought us superb surfing conditions over the past month.  It does look like the ridge is finally going to yield towards the end of this week and bring badly needed rain to California.  Especially from SF north.  Until then, look for mid size surf - shoulder to head high Monday - new West swell comes in Tues/Wed pushing deepwater heights back up in the 6-8ft range both days - good for well overhead surf at top winter breaks.  Thursday swell will drop some and then come up again on Friday (probably with strong south winds) as the storm door opens and a few systems come ashore.  Conditions look potentially quite stormy by next Monday/Tuesday Feb 8-9.  Next update wk of Feb 9th.  Cya in the water.

JANUARY

Strong high pressure, as we've had the past few drought years in January, has locked the N Pac down since just before Christmas.   Not much swell and no rain but conditions have been clean with offshore winds many days. Pattern looks to break down by the end of this week with the storm door opening.  Until then some good days ahead with light AM winds.  A new powerful swell will charge in on Thursday pushing deepwater heights into the 6-10 ft range with offshore winds.  This looks to be the beginning of a solid run of larger swells through the back half of January.  Deep low pressure in the N Pac looks to replace high pressure and start pumping out storms and swell.  Happy New Year and cya in the water.

Extremely Large Swell for the Weekend

NWS is forecasting deepwater swell 18-20 ft, possibly 25ft far north, for late Friday into Saturday.  Powerful storm in the central Pacific with hurricane force winds directed at Nor Cal, and storm movement in our general direction - all adds up to massive size surf.  Most places won't handle that size in any sort of manner.  Even south facing spots will be fairly large.  One more rain event on Friday and then we dry out for the weekend and perhaps a few days into next week and beyond.  Could be back to a wet pattern after Christmas.  Swell stays elevated the next two days and then goes huge late Friday.  Cya in the water.

Mid December - solid swell continues

El Nino continúes to flex the muscle and bring us drought busting storms.  Next rain event due in here tomorrow night through Monday.  Then a break, then another storm Tues/Wed and possibly a third storm late next week.  It's good.  Long term models hinting at high pressure Christmas week which would be a nice break.  Will see if that comes to pass.  Look for surf to stay in the double overhead range at spots like Ocean Beach through all of next week.  Biggest day looks to be next Monday and Tuesday with deep water heights 10-15ft on Monday - 12-15 ft on Tuesday.  Mostly West/Northwest swell from 270-300 degrees.  Winds will be south to southeast as fronts approach, perhaps turning east to northeast (or light and variable) as fronts pass.  So know your spots and you'll have plenty to ride.  Water temps continue to hover high 50s to 60 degrees - highly unusual for December - but typical of El Nino.  That's also contributing to storms gaining strength just before they come ashore.  Warmer water equals more energy and higher rain rates.  Cya in the water.

December

Drought busting storms continue the assault on CA - no end in sight for the week ahead with perhaps the strongest storm of the season so far - due in here Wednesday to Friday with heavy rain, winds forecast in the 50kt range and gigantic storm surf by week's end - deepwater heights pushing 20 feet by Friday.  Fairly large surf all week, just check the winds.  For you regular followers of Wasabi you'll notice my reports have been less frequent this season.  Work and life is very busy for me so I've been focused on a lot of things.  I will try and update when I can.  In the meantime - the links all work and that's always been the best part of this blog I think as it is.  I'm updating and changing them from time to time as i find more sites with information useful for those of us that surf this part of the CA Coast.  Cya in the water.

Wasabi Update

Large northwest swell due to run at the Coast later today through tomorrow - pushing deep water heights back up to the 8-10 ft range.  Winds will switch to northwest behind the front later today.  First way up north, then down through the Bay Area.  Surf will stay elevated through next Wednesday - with the potential for very good conditions starting tomorrow with offshore winds each morning and surf staying in that 8-10 ft range.  HIgh pressure building into the Great Basin late tonight.  Next chance of rain looks like late next weekend.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Long period northwest swell began filling in late last night - Pt Reyes showing 4.9 ft at 17 from 300+.  This was generated by former Typhoon Nuri - now affecting the Central US with snow, high winds and frigid Arctic temps (1 degree in Denver this am).  This super storm, which recorded the lowest barometric pressure ever in the Bering Sea has been on quite a journey for the past week.  Remnants of Nuri will actually bring us rain tonight and tomorrow as part of that storm reformed in the Gulf of Alaska.  Winds are very light northwest right now but will turn southerly later today in front of this system.  Look for the Nuri swell to fade some on Thursday and then a new Gulf swell fills in Friday with deep water heights 7ft at 14 sec from 285.  That swell will drop some on Saturday, then head back up again on Sunday.  So plenty of swell for the next five days.  Winds will be a combination of light northwest to south/southwest before and after front passages.  Might have another shot of rain late in the weekend and then a major wet pattern change forecast for next week with soaking rains for all of CA.  Check the winds, know your spots.  It's Fall in Nor Cal.  Plenty to ride.  Cya in the water.

November

Large northwest swell peaking today - 10-12ft at 14-16 seconds from 290 +.  Winds are shredding things as the latest storm to bring rain to Central and Northern California has moved off to the east.  Look for high pressure to be in control thru most of next week - chance of rain far north by next weekend.  Seas will stay elevated thru Wednesday - 6-8 ft 11-12 seconds from late Sunday on.  Winds forecast to be north to northwest - much lighter by Tuesday and Wednesday with a chance of light to offshore flow both those mornings.  Check the winds - plenty of swell.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Large long period northwesterly swell is filling in this afternoon - right now 10-12 ft deepwater - at 17 sec from 285.  Swell will peak overnight and remain large tomorrow.  Winds are light right now but picking up from the northwest as the weak front that gave us some additional rain has pushed through.  Look for a break in the weather the next few days and then a renewed chance of rain about Thursday lasting until Saturday.  Better chance of rain in the North Bay.  Swell to stay elevated most of the week ahead as the North Pacific remains very active pumping out weather and swell for the remainder of the period.  Winds are going to be highly variable - s to sw when fronts come ashore, changing to west or northwest with each passage.  Very active October - so stay tuned.  Cya in the water.