Spring Happens

First day of Spring is Friday and right on cue it looks a lot like Spring around these parts.  Weatherman Bill Martin called it the other night by saying - "all you have to do is take a look at the North Pacific satellite feed, jet stream is pushing up into Alaska…"  so it goes.  El Nino has been declared (only by 0.5 degree of warmer than usual water temps).  California is in the 4th year of one of the worst droughts  on record and the surf for you and me looks average for the rest of the week with a combination of northwest windswell along with some west/northwest swell.  There will be some decent size tomorrow and into the weekend - issue will be northwest winds.   In fact water temps tumbled 3 degrees in 24hours last night at our northern buoys to 53.  Still holding steady at SF around 55 degrees.  I'd look towards next Sunday and Monday for the most size - but find a place protected from the winds.  Very small chances of rain far north this Friday and Saturday and then again early next week.  Be mindful of your water use this Spring and Summer - it's going to be a long off season.  Cya in the water.

MARCH

March 1st is traditionally the end of the winter surf season on the North Coast.  Colder water, northwest winds all mark the change of seasons.   We do have an early season south swell rolling in early next week so keep an eye on that.  Conditions in the South Pacific do indicate a better than average south swell season so let's hope that materializes.  Until then, windswell will be the primary source of swell for the time ahead, although i don't think the North Pac is ready to shut down completely just yet.  Will update as needed.  Cya in the water.

March looms…..

Fairly small surf prevails with an increase expected this weekend as another small West swell moves in along with potentially offshore winds near the Coast, but stronger northwest winds over the outer waters - a sign that Spring isn't too far away.  Forecast remains dry through the end of Feb so on and off good windows of surf should be found in between these north/northwest wind events being created by high pressure just offshore and to our north with systems moving up and over the ridge into the Great Basin.  Fun size surf should prevail through most of next week.  Cya in the water.

STORM DOOR OPENS

Major rain event unfolding offshore and will steam in here overnight bringing copious amounts of rain to Central/Northern California.  Gale warnings are up and south winds are already howling over the outer waters whipping up a big southwest swell (21ft) at Cape Mendo Buoy.  Going to be a mess for the next 2-4 days with up to 10-12 inches of rain when it's all over by Monday on the Sonoma Coast with lesser amounts further south but still plenty of rain to go around.  Unless you like big south winds and large storm swell - might not be an ideal weekend for surfing.  However, if you know the Coast - there are a few spots that actually might not be too shabby over the next few days.  Enjoy the rain.  Cya in the water.

FEBRUARY

It hasn't rained in Northern California since December 24.  SF set the record for the driest January since the City has been keep records - over 165 years.  Ridge of high pressure has brought us superb surfing conditions over the past month.  It does look like the ridge is finally going to yield towards the end of this week and bring badly needed rain to California.  Especially from SF north.  Until then, look for mid size surf - shoulder to head high Monday - new West swell comes in Tues/Wed pushing deepwater heights back up in the 6-8ft range both days - good for well overhead surf at top winter breaks.  Thursday swell will drop some and then come up again on Friday (probably with strong south winds) as the storm door opens and a few systems come ashore.  Conditions look potentially quite stormy by next Monday/Tuesday Feb 8-9.  Next update wk of Feb 9th.  Cya in the water.

JANUARY

Strong high pressure, as we've had the past few drought years in January, has locked the N Pac down since just before Christmas.   Not much swell and no rain but conditions have been clean with offshore winds many days. Pattern looks to break down by the end of this week with the storm door opening.  Until then some good days ahead with light AM winds.  A new powerful swell will charge in on Thursday pushing deepwater heights into the 6-10 ft range with offshore winds.  This looks to be the beginning of a solid run of larger swells through the back half of January.  Deep low pressure in the N Pac looks to replace high pressure and start pumping out storms and swell.  Happy New Year and cya in the water.

Extremely Large Swell for the Weekend

NWS is forecasting deepwater swell 18-20 ft, possibly 25ft far north, for late Friday into Saturday.  Powerful storm in the central Pacific with hurricane force winds directed at Nor Cal, and storm movement in our general direction - all adds up to massive size surf.  Most places won't handle that size in any sort of manner.  Even south facing spots will be fairly large.  One more rain event on Friday and then we dry out for the weekend and perhaps a few days into next week and beyond.  Could be back to a wet pattern after Christmas.  Swell stays elevated the next two days and then goes huge late Friday.  Cya in the water.

Mid December - solid swell continues

El Nino continúes to flex the muscle and bring us drought busting storms.  Next rain event due in here tomorrow night through Monday.  Then a break, then another storm Tues/Wed and possibly a third storm late next week.  It's good.  Long term models hinting at high pressure Christmas week which would be a nice break.  Will see if that comes to pass.  Look for surf to stay in the double overhead range at spots like Ocean Beach through all of next week.  Biggest day looks to be next Monday and Tuesday with deep water heights 10-15ft on Monday - 12-15 ft on Tuesday.  Mostly West/Northwest swell from 270-300 degrees.  Winds will be south to southeast as fronts approach, perhaps turning east to northeast (or light and variable) as fronts pass.  So know your spots and you'll have plenty to ride.  Water temps continue to hover high 50s to 60 degrees - highly unusual for December - but typical of El Nino.  That's also contributing to storms gaining strength just before they come ashore.  Warmer water equals more energy and higher rain rates.  Cya in the water.

December

Drought busting storms continue the assault on CA - no end in sight for the week ahead with perhaps the strongest storm of the season so far - due in here Wednesday to Friday with heavy rain, winds forecast in the 50kt range and gigantic storm surf by week's end - deepwater heights pushing 20 feet by Friday.  Fairly large surf all week, just check the winds.  For you regular followers of Wasabi you'll notice my reports have been less frequent this season.  Work and life is very busy for me so I've been focused on a lot of things.  I will try and update when I can.  In the meantime - the links all work and that's always been the best part of this blog I think as it is.  I'm updating and changing them from time to time as i find more sites with information useful for those of us that surf this part of the CA Coast.  Cya in the water.

Wasabi Update

Large northwest swell due to run at the Coast later today through tomorrow - pushing deep water heights back up to the 8-10 ft range.  Winds will switch to northwest behind the front later today.  First way up north, then down through the Bay Area.  Surf will stay elevated through next Wednesday - with the potential for very good conditions starting tomorrow with offshore winds each morning and surf staying in that 8-10 ft range.  HIgh pressure building into the Great Basin late tonight.  Next chance of rain looks like late next weekend.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Long period northwest swell began filling in late last night - Pt Reyes showing 4.9 ft at 17 from 300+.  This was generated by former Typhoon Nuri - now affecting the Central US with snow, high winds and frigid Arctic temps (1 degree in Denver this am).  This super storm, which recorded the lowest barometric pressure ever in the Bering Sea has been on quite a journey for the past week.  Remnants of Nuri will actually bring us rain tonight and tomorrow as part of that storm reformed in the Gulf of Alaska.  Winds are very light northwest right now but will turn southerly later today in front of this system.  Look for the Nuri swell to fade some on Thursday and then a new Gulf swell fills in Friday with deep water heights 7ft at 14 sec from 285.  That swell will drop some on Saturday, then head back up again on Sunday.  So plenty of swell for the next five days.  Winds will be a combination of light northwest to south/southwest before and after front passages.  Might have another shot of rain late in the weekend and then a major wet pattern change forecast for next week with soaking rains for all of CA.  Check the winds, know your spots.  It's Fall in Nor Cal.  Plenty to ride.  Cya in the water.

November

Large northwest swell peaking today - 10-12ft at 14-16 seconds from 290 +.  Winds are shredding things as the latest storm to bring rain to Central and Northern California has moved off to the east.  Look for high pressure to be in control thru most of next week - chance of rain far north by next weekend.  Seas will stay elevated thru Wednesday - 6-8 ft 11-12 seconds from late Sunday on.  Winds forecast to be north to northwest - much lighter by Tuesday and Wednesday with a chance of light to offshore flow both those mornings.  Check the winds - plenty of swell.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Large long period northwesterly swell is filling in this afternoon - right now 10-12 ft deepwater - at 17 sec from 285.  Swell will peak overnight and remain large tomorrow.  Winds are light right now but picking up from the northwest as the weak front that gave us some additional rain has pushed through.  Look for a break in the weather the next few days and then a renewed chance of rain about Thursday lasting until Saturday.  Better chance of rain in the North Bay.  Swell to stay elevated most of the week ahead as the North Pacific remains very active pumping out weather and swell for the remainder of the period.  Winds are going to be highly variable - s to sw when fronts come ashore, changing to west or northwest with each passage.  Very active October - so stay tuned.  Cya in the water.

Some rain, more swell

A series of Pacific Weather Systems set to impact our Coast starting today - south to southwest winds will be up - with another solid west/northwest swell lining up for Wednesday and Thursday - pushing deepwater heights back up in the 8-12 ft range Wed - 10-15ft Thursday - biggest north of the Bay Area.    Another round of shorter period west swell due in for the weekend - which will push heights back into the 6-10ft range on Saturday, easing some on Sunday.  Light rain tonight - then a break - next chance of rain comes in Friday and then again next Monday.  So we're in an unsettled pattern for the next five days at least.  Winds will vary based on incoming fronts - s/se winds to start, shift to north/northwest after front passage.  Cleanest day of the week looks like maybe Thursday morning.  But with these patterns - always worth checking the winds each day.  Plenty of swell in the water that's for sure.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

SE swell from Hurricane Simon in the water at 2ft 11-12 sec from 160.  Most spots will not see this energy.  Small northwest swell at 2-3 ft at 12 seconds - just a degree up above windswell.  Long period northwest swell should start to show far north Thursday night - 3-5ft at 19 seconds, followed by a larger swell this weekend which will push deepwater heights back up into the 10-13ft range.  Northwest winds are forecast to increase towards week's end, while also turning offshore inland.  So morning sessions might see good wind conditions from Friday through Sunday.  Certainly check the winds and know your spots.  Pattern begins to break down middle of next week as the storm door looks like it might open and bring badly needed precip back to the region.  Cya in the water.

Hurricane Simon & Updated Forecast

Extreme angle SE swell from Hurricane Simon is in So Cal waters this am and moving north.  Angle of approach is 155-165 so it will miss most spots up here - except those with the best window to that swell direction.  Swell that does show will begin late tonight into tomorrow and fade late Wednesday.

New pulse of west/northwest windswell due Thursday/Friday (280-300) which will be good chest - head high + surf at winter breaks in the Bay Area.  Larger north.   Larger west/northwest ground swell (290-305) due to show this coming Friday, lasting thru next weekend and into the following week.

Winds look light northwest early in the week - stronger nw winds due from Wednesday thru Friday.  Forecast calls for another offshore wind event by next weekend - but not as strong or hot as this past event.

**Scripps Deepwater/Pt Reyes buoy has been offline since the 3rd.  Hopefully they will get that resolved today.

cya in the water.

Updated Forecast - First offshore event of the season

Pattern change starting late Wednesday on - high pressure is going to set up in the Great Basin and bring our first offshore wind event of early Fall.  Windswell primary source of waves along with a small pulse of mid period northwest swell thru Wednesday - good for chest/head high waves - bigger at top winter breaks.  Wont probably see the affects of the offshore push until Thursday.  Towards the weekend we will see another pulse of long period northwest swell and a decent shot of southwest groundswell (200-240) building Friday and lasting thru the weekend.  Should be pretty nice conditions from Friday thru Sunday.  cya in the water.

Happy Autumn - First big northwest swell of the season…..

730pm tonight is the Autumn Equinox.

First large northwest swell will start to impact our Coast mid week - with forecasted deepwater heights 10-15ft.  This is due to a large, complex storm system out in the Gulf, which unfortunately will probably come ashore around the same time.  Rain is in the forecast - Wednesday, Thursday, possibly into Friday.  Winds will be south/southwest during as the front comes ashore, probably turn northwest behind and i'll be looking for any sign of an offshore wind event next weekend.  Check the winds this week - might be a few moments - plenty of swell in the water from mid week on.  Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Rain showers have ended across the region as an early season storm dropped some badly needed rain around the area.  Looks like we could see more rain mid/late next week as the N Pac is very active - fueled in part by warm water and energy around the Pacific Basin.  The solid southwest swell is winding down some tonight - but still decent with deepwater heights at 3-4 ft from 17 seconds.  Northwest swell is winding down as well - 4-5 ft at 11 seconds.  Look for the southwest to fade more Friday - with left over northwest windswell.  By late Saturday, a larger pulse of northwest swell is due to hit - pushing surf heights back in the head to overhead range thru Sunday.  Winds will highly variable the next few days - lightest early.  Doesn't look like any huge blow out but expect stronger winds each afternoon.  Plenty of surf on tap late Saturday thru Sunday.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast -

Good run of southern hemi swells and WNW swells this coming week.  Rain chances return to the region (from Sonoma, north) Wednesday into Thursday.  Possible swell from Hurricane Odile could hit next weekend if the track takes it up Baja and into our swell window mid week.  This would be a south/southeast swell with a pretty steep approach.

SW/SWW swell will develop tonight and stick around thru Wednesday - (195-220) - good for head high and better sets at south facing breaks.

New WNW swell shows Tuesday - (290-300) good for chest/head high waves at winter breaks.  Another WNW swell will come in late this week.  More on that to come.  The N Pac is getting active.

Winds this coming week look highly variable.  W to SW to NW - strongest NW winds next Friday.  Best bet is to check it - know your spots and wind direction and you'll find something to ride.  Should be plenty of swell in the water from Tuesday on.

Cya in the water.