Lighter winds for the weekend - storms next week to close February

Winds are easing up and offshore at area beaches this morning.  Swell is still decent size  7-8 ft 11-12 seconds from 285 plus.  Swell will fade throughout the day. Saturday will featuring smaller surf in the morning and then an increase in size as a new WNW swell moves in.  This swell will stick around Sunday - 3-5ft deepwater.  Should see good morning/offshore winds Saturday and Sunday.  Next week the storm door opens again as a series of strong systems will impact the region from Wednesday through the following weekend bringing rain and strong south winds.  When it's all done we will be into the month of March and then the northwest wind machine will start to ramp up.   So get on it.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast - Northwest Winds

Northwest winds will be the rule this week as high pressure sets up.  There will be plenty of swell in the water at times, but need to find protection from the winds.  Models hint at another wet pattern change mid next week through the end of the month with rain/storms.  Then it will be March and we know what happens around here then.  Get what you can as i expect we're going to have a very windy spring around these parts.  Cya in the water.

Rain, mix of swells and wind to continue through the week

Next storm system due in tomorrow afternoon into Thursday.  Look for northwest winds changing over to south/southwest.  Dry on Friday, more rain Saturday and Sunday.  Nothing is really going to be very clean for the next 4-5 days - there will be swell from different sources - finding someplace clean to ride will be the key.  We need the rain so let it be so.   Keep an eye on the winds and buoys and you'll find some windows to ride.  Cya in the water.

Pattern to remain unsettled

Strong, compact storm dropped down along the coast yesterday bringing much needed rain to most of the area and higher amounts than forecast.  NE winds this morning - swell is 8-10ft with mixed periods from several sources.  We will remain in a more normal winter pattern this week - with more rain and cold temps forecast Wednesday and Thursday and then models forecast a very wet shift in the jet stream for next weekend.  Surf will stay on the smaller side most of the week - winds will be highly variable depending on the day.  Best bet is check it each morning and see if you can get some.  Cya in the water.

Winter returns (briefly) and conditions go south

Back to back weak storm systems moved through our region bringing some measurable rain and northwest winds.  What a distant memory now all those fine days earlier this month and in December yeah?  Don't look for things to improve much, northwest winds today and tomorrow.  On Sunday, another low pressure system will drop south along the coast bringing a threat of rain and light south winds.  Sunday morning might be ok - but far from super clean.  Small surf looks the rule with a bump up Sunday and Monday as a new WNW swell comes in.  Best breaks during these days might be a few feet overhead with the sets.  HIgh pressure builds back in next week, but not as strong as the drought high pressure of the best few months - models hint and another storm next weekend.  Winds next week look northwest - maybe some clean mornings.  More on that after the weekend.  Cya in the water.

Solid surf continues, pattern change in the weather next week

Solid deep water swell continues today - 5-8 ft from 275 + .  Winds are generally light right now as high clouds move overhead from a weak storm system moving in from the south.  Look for generally elevated surf through next Thursday - but our long run of offshore days looks like it will come to an end next week as a strong storm moves in from the Pacific and the blocking ridge of high pressure leaves the region - bringing us badly needed rain.  Right now rain could begin in the North Bay as early as Wednesday night and stick around through Friday.  You can look for south/southwest winds to pick up those days and then northwest blow behind the front.  Until then, plenty of surf on tap just check the winds.  Cya in the water.

Large swell to impact coast late Thursday

Buoys north of Hawaii show the story - 26ft at 17 seconds.  The Islands will be massive later today.  Large surf continues for us and will get much bigger over the next few days as the swell from a massive low pressure circulation (a storm filling almost the entire North Pacific) begins to show late Thursday with 6-8 ft deepwater at 25 seconds.  Swell to increase Friday with long periods and size - 10-14 ft at 18 seconds - maxing out on Saturday at 15-18ft.  Not quite the mega swell models were forecasting a week or so ago - but should be the biggest surf we've seen this winter at most north facing/big water breaks.  Winds look tricky the next few days as an inside slider storm barrels into the Great Basin, then retrogrades towards the CA Coast.  This is going to trigger a strong southerly wind surge late Thursday into Friday.  Then we go back to a north to northwest wind event for the weekend.  Winds over the weekend may very well turn offshore for the mornings.  Could see some drizzle Thursday/Friday from this system - but not much precip expected.  CA remains locked under high pressure through the end of January.  Large storms west of the Dateline will continue to generate swell trains that impact the region.  But no weather will make it past Hawaii.  Cya in the water.

One more small fun day, then a 50 year swell???

Amazing winter conditions continue - offshore winds, day after day of rideable waves.  Friday will see the smallest day of surf for the next 7-10 - with shoulder to head high surf at north facing breaks.  A very potent run of storms north of Hawaii is kicking up swell that will begin to impact our region later in the day on Saturday and continue through all of next week.  Could see potentially extremely large surf around Jan 24-25 if conditions behave as models forecast.  So look for increasing surf late Saturday from 270-300 with double overhead sets expected by sunset.  Larger swell Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday - in the 10-15ft range Sunday and then 8-12 ft through the week.  If the mega swell comes in it will show late next Thursday - be full force Friday with deepwater swell heights forecast at 20-30ft!!  This would be one for the ages if it materializes.  **I still think most of the models are too hot on this swell - but it's worth noting they've been pretty consistent for over a week now forecasting extremely large waves.  Should have a better handle on things by the middle of next week.  No end in sight to the offshore winds as summer time high pressure has the region in full lock down from rain and storms.  I can't emphasize enough how dire things are now for California.  We're breaking all sorts of records for lack of rainfall, snowfall, high temps and dry conditions and in many ways could be looking at a drought event never experienced.  So do you part - conserve water and tell family, friends, people you work with to do the same.  It could make a huge difference for all of us next summer.  Enjoy the surf, cya in the water.

Large swell to impact coast tonight and tomorrow….

Very powerful winter storm in the northeast Gulf of AK - has whipped up a large swell train which will start to impact the coast tonight and last through Sunday afternoon.  Oregon Coastal buoys are starting to show deepwater in the 18ft range - expect 14-18ft deepwater swell north of Pt Reyes, 12-14ft to the south - with bigger sets and a bit unruly at times.  Period will be 15-16 seconds - angle 300 +.  Winds are going to be northwest tonight and north tomorrow.  Probably won't be very clean at anything west/north facing.  Look for elevated surf levels through most of next week with good conditions as wind turn offshore starting Monday and look to hold through next Thursday.  What little rain we managed to squeeze out today is it for us until the end of January.  Dry weather will dominate the region.  Great for surfers, bad if you're a fern.  Cya in the water.

Our long run of clean days over for now…..

Well, it had to happen, onshore winds have returned after what seems like a month of offshore and clean days.  Don't get too depressed, because it looks like we could see warm temps and offshore winds return next week - but in the short term - swell inbound with northwest winds.  Long period swell will start to build in later tonight (295 to 305) peaking over the weekend.  Looking for deepwater heights in the 6-10ft range from Friday to Sunday.  But winds will be an issue today, Thursday, Friday and Saturday, possibly cleaning up for light morning winds on Sunday.  Best chance of rain will occur Saturday as the tail end of a weather system brushes Nor Cal.  Beyond that, high pressure regains control and no rain is forecast through Jan 20th.  We're almost halfway through our rainy season now and most of the State finds itself in a severe water deficit.  Most areas 5-10% of normal.  We all need to conserve water and anyone reading this blog should tell a friend or two they know.  Most people aren't in tune with the weather like surfers and just think we're having a nice winter.  Well the sun is shining and it's all wonderful, but come July we will all be lucky to get a one minute shower.  Do your part and watch your water use.  Until then, plenty of swell, keep an eye on the winds if you know the coast you'll find spots to ride even during northwest wind events.  Cya in the water.

Week Ahead

Fun size surf continues with very clean conditions.  New WNW swell will fill in late today and waves should be a couple feet overhead on Tuesday at winter breaks.  Smaller Wednesday, swell comes back up late Thursday into Friday and next weekend should feature large surf with 8-12ft of deepwater forecast from a storm whipping up a swell train in the West Pacific.   Winds look good through about Wednesday then we might see an increase in northwest wind flow through the weekend as a few systems brush past us to the north and the high pressure gradient increases down the coast.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Great run of good surf will continue for the rest of the holiday week.  A touch smaller than our past two swell events, but still head to overhead surf at north facing/winter breaks through Sunday.  Winds look decent as well.

Note - NOR CAL Buoy link appears to be offline - i'm sure the fine people in La Jolla will fix when they get back from holiday.

Cya in the water and Happy New Year.

Holiday Forecast

Pretty epic week of surf ahead to enjoy the holidays.  Offshore winds, back to back swells right through next Sunday.  Our current swell will wind down Tuesday, but still feature overhead waves at north facing breaks.  Further reduction on Wednesday, fun size - and then things go large again late Thursday  to Sunday.  Biggest days looks like next Friday/Saturday/Sunday - with 6-12ft of deepwater swell (285 to 305 deg) on tap.  The late week swell will feature some lulls like our present swell, however the storm that created this next event was closer and stronger than the previous storm, so you can expect a bit more activity and strong pulses of sets when they roll ashore.  Happy Holidays to everyone.  Cya in the water.

She's Gonna Blow & More Swell On The Way

Calm to slight northwest winds this morning.  Two storm systems - one to the south and one to our north will influence the region over the next 48 hrs.  Additionally, a very strong low pressure system west of Hawaii is kicking up a long period powerful swell that will come in this weekend.  Winds will ramp up late tonight into Thursday - Gale Warnings posted along with High Wind Warnings in the North Bay.  Expect 25-45kt winds with gusts as high as 60kt over our outer waters.  No rain with either system, just crazy pressure gradients that will force winds from high in the atmosphere to mix down to the surface.  As for that weekend event - look for building swell Saturday, biggest late - 6-10ft deepwater (275 - 295), bigger Sunday - 8-12ft deepwater, fading some Monday 6-10ft deepwater - and then a steady fade into next week.  May see lighter winds all weekend - especially mornings.  NO rain in the forecast, in fact it looks like 2013 will end up as the driest year on record - dating back to the 1850s.  We are in a world of shit when it comes to water - so do your part now and start conserving.  No indication this high pressure ridge is going to leave us for the winter.  cya in the water.

BOOM

OCEAN BEACH YESTERDAY…...

Weekend forecast, Solid Swell on Monday

Great conditions on tap with offshore winds the next few days.   Solid swell today and tomorrow - deepwater 5-8 ft - then much larger surf on Monday with deepwater 10-15ft.  Big wave spots will see surf in the 18-20ft range on Monday.  Cya in the water.

New West Swell, Cold Temps

New West swell will fill in Monday and stick around through Tuesday.  Look for head to slightly overhead waves at the best facing breaks.  Offshore winds most of this week - maybe an afternoon sea breeze of sorts.  Fun size surf really through Friday.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast - Old Man Winter To Visit

Swell still 5.5ft at 12 from 270+ - winds coming up a bit and will really start to blow from the north and northwest tomorrow as a very cold system drops south out of British Columbia.  Could see freezing temps at the Coast by Thursday/Friday morning - and very cold temps in the 20s inland.  No rain to speak of - however models are hinting at that possibility for next weekend and beyond.  Swell wise this week - mix of north and northwest windswell will be the rule really - and winds are going to probably make a mess of it from Tuesday on.  Sheltered spots will probably be best, but also small given the short period nature of the swells on tap.  So, good week to get back to work.  Keep an eye on the winds and swell, know your spots and you might find something to ride.  ***Side note - NOAA released it's buoy recovery and repair list for 2014 and none of the CA Buoys that are out - are on the list to be repaired and redeployed.  Thanks NOAA.  Papa and CA will remain off the grid for the season.  Cya in the water.

Powerful Swell for Thanksgiving

 Super clean conditions today with small waves.  That will change quickly tomorrow night as a strong west (265-295) swell fills in rapidly.  Thanksgiving will dawn with booming conditions - deepwater 8-10ft ++ with long periods.  Unlike most of the swell events so far this season - this has quite a bit of westerly angle - so breaks that favor big west/northwest swells will be rocking.  Winds look really good   for Thursday and Friday.  Might even see decent winds for Saturday.  By Sunday, nw winds may ramp up some.  Swell right through Sunday as we get a reinforcing shot of waves for Sat/Sun.  Plenty to ride, cya in the water.

Very small surf for the weekend….

Surf will be small to flat this weekend depending on your location.  N Pac swell machine has gone to sleep and all we really have is northerly windswell from 325 plus.  Really the story of our season so far - extreme angle smaller swells as the Eastern part of the North Pacific has been the most active.  So grab a log or go golf.  Things may improve early next week - but just by a touch.  Cya in the water.