March Upon Us....

Water temps are around 48 degrees, winds are blowing northwest and we're in between cold systems with a decent shot of rain moving in here Tuesday night into Wednesday.  The official end to the winter season is March 1st, but we'll have swell all week, biggest Wednesday and Thursday when deep water swell heights push back up in the 8-15ft range.  Winds will be blowing southwest Tuesday, onshore Wednesday, onshore Thursday and then northwest on Friday.  You might find something to ride if you know where to look.

 Beyond March 1st, i won't be updating this blog on a regular basis unless conditions warrant.  All the links etc will remain active so you can check conditions daily.  Looks to be a cool, windy spring around here - surf early and travel to warmer climates.  Regular updates will start up again in September.  Have a great summer.  Cya in the water.

Windy

NW winds making a mess of things.  Today will be the last warm day inland, but doesn't look very clean near the coast even though the forecast was calling for offshore winds - just not happening.  Swell is up - mix of large steep windswell and groundswell - in the 8-12ft range.  Looking ahead - weekend doesn't look great - low pressure returns, winds come up and should be pretty ugly around here.  Spring conditions most certainly looking to take control.  With the lock down high pressure has had on our region all winter, it will be easy for that to assert full control as we move into March.  I just don't see anything significant changing the pattern in the near future.  Models forecast a stormy period starting in Mid March, which could bring more swell - but that's a long ways off and have to wait and see.  Storms usually bring periods of offshore flow early in the season - (after trough passage) - but late season storms in March and April come with NW winds/flow as they depart our region.  There will be surf - you just have to know where to look.  Cya in the water.

Some Nice Days Ahead

Bit of a break today as winds have stayed east to southeast - and light.  Swell is 6 ft at 12 seconds from around 290.  Look for swell most of this week in the 6-10 ft range (deepwater heights) as we also transition back to some offshore flow and warm temps Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday - winds look best for the mornings.  By next weekend, models want to bring another trough of low pressure towards the region perhaps ushering in a wet period for Central/Northern CA.  Have to wait and see.  Enjoy the next couple of days, March is just around the corner.  Cya in the water.

Welcome to Spring?

NW winds are howling over the outer waters and water temps are going to plummet.  Look for winds through the weekend (and early next week) as late season storm systems with minimal moisture drag through Nor Cal, increasing the nw winds with each passage.  There is swell out there - if you don't mind a Gale Warning or two over the next 36 hours.  Looks a lot like Spring, and since March 1st is looming - almost on cue.  If you know where to look - you'll find waves.
cya in the water.

Week Ahead

Those offshore sunny days a distant memory now.....Winter has started in Nor Cal - we have a trough of low pressure directly overhead and moving through the area this morning.  Heavy nw winds, steep swell and a big mess over the open waters.  Look for nw winds most if not all week as a series of low pressure systems sweep through Nor Cal.  Plenty of swell if you know where to find it during these weather patterns - but anything with exposure is going to be big and blown out.  The pattern in the Pacific looks to stay active.  No huge rain storms, just small events.  Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

WNW and WSW swells in for the forecast for Saturday and Sunday - deepwater heights will stay in the 8-10ft range - good for double overhead waves at top spots.  Winds are going to be an issue as we have a series of low pressure systems due in, the first Friday night and the second on Sunday.  So look for west (onshore) or west northwest winds through the period.  Plenty of swell about if you know where to look.  Cya in the water.

Weather on the way....

Storm due in Monday through Tuesday.  Conditions will be nasty until Wednesday/Thursday - when a large WNW swell will roll in pushing waves back up to the triple (and bigger) over head range.  Deepwater swell in the 10-15ft range - dropping to 8-12ft on Thursday.  Lighter winds for the AM sessions both days.  cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Larger WNW swell will move in over the weekend - peaked at the PAPA buoy at 22-23ft last night.  Swell will begin to fill in overnight and should be quite solid at north facing breaks by morning with deepwater swell in the 8-12 range - bigger at top spots.  Size will stick around Sunday - fading slowly Monday.  Winds look offshore for most of the weekend, with perhaps a bit of an afternoon sea breeze.  Weather looks to change late Monday into Tuesday with rain in the forecast again.  cya in the water.

Week Ahead

Missed the weekend update - but we had really clean conditions both days with offshore flow.  Swell faded out today with small clean waves.  Look for back to back west/northwest swells through next week - with larger surf Wednesday and Thursday - pushing back in the double overhead plus range at north facing breaks.  Generally light morning winds can be expected as the storm track continues to stay to the north leaving 2/3 of the US high and dry.  Cya in the water.

Week Ahead

Last storm of the series moving through the region this morning.  Large, raw west swell still hitting at 12-15ft at 12-14 seconds from 290-300.  After this storm passes, high pressure builds in for the remainder of the week.  We should see light to ne winds each morning as back to back swells line up for mid week and the weekend.  Surf will stay well overhead most of the week and good north facing breaks - looks biggest Thursday with double overhead surf back in the picture.  So, check the winds each day.  Plenty of surf on tap.  Cya in the water.

Go Niners

Good weekend to watch football.  In between storms right now with the next one due to slam in tonight with heavy rain, strong s winds through Saturday morning.  Winds will turn west mid day Saturday before veering back to the south/southeast on Sunday as the next storm comes in.  Swell will be up through the period - getting quite large again late Saturday into Sunday (possible 15ft deepwater) - but very raw and shorter period stuff due to the close proximity of these storms.  Looks like we'll dry out again next week so might be some better days.  Could be some surf if you know where to look this weekend.  Forecast for Candlestick on Sunday:  Wet, damp, probably rain or rain showers.  Temps in the 50s.  C'mon boys, let's beat those Giants.  Cya in the water.

Pattern to change, storm door opens next week....

Today was probably the last really clean day for the next week.  NW swell winding down overnight - still decent in the AM at north facing breaks, but nw winds are already coming up at the buoys as high pressure will get pushed out tomorrow by the first of a series of low pressure systems due to hit the north/central CA coast through next week.  Rain comes back in the forecast around Wednesday, starting north and moving south all week - as storms come in and increase in strength as we move towards next weekend.  There will be swell in the water the next few days, just keep an eye on the winds as things will be far less predictable by the middle of next week.  Cya in the water.

Good Conditions Continue

WNW turning more NW swell peaked today - solid 8-10 ft deepwater at 14-17 seconds.  Look for the swell to wind down Wednesday - but still quite solid.  Much smaller Thursday, then an increase again Friday into Saturday with overhead (some double overhead) waves at north facing breaks.  Winds continue to look good - light to offshore through the period - but best in the mornings.  Models are hinting at a possible pattern change starting later next week with perhaps some rain finally moving into our region after almost a month and a half of no rain.  So get after it for the next 5-7 days.  Cya in the water.

Weekend - stays big and goes offshore

Photo:  Sean Shafer

OB yesterday afternoon, Coast Guard boys doing drills.  Macking West swell winds down Saturday, but still quite solid - double overhead plus at north facing breaks.  High pressure building overhead and inland - result will be light to offshore winds Saturday.  Further swell decay on Sunday, but still pretty decent, good winds.  Next swell should rapidly build late Sunday.  No rain, no snow, nothing through Mid January.  Just swell, offshore winds.  Perfect winter to be a surfer, that is until you need a drink of water next summer.....cya in the water.

Large West Swells To Impact Nor Cal

Back to back west swells through Friday.  First event due in later tonight and will peak during the day on Tuesday.  Look for double/triple overhead waves at north facing breaks.  Second and much bigger swell - due in Thursday - from 260-300 - look for triple overhead +++ at north facing breaks all day Thursday - still quite solid Friday, with size dropping a bit.  Winds look best Tuesday/Wednesday, especially mornings.  NW winds forecast to rise Thursday and Friday - so keep an eye on that.  No rain in the forecast through mid January.  Happy New Year.  Cya in the water.

Forecast Through New Years....RIP Sean Collins

Sad to hear that Surfline founder Sean Collins passed away this week at 59.  Despite what many have said about his website, as well as forecast sites, the fact remains he was an amazing resource for weather and surf information and revolutionized surf forecasting.  He will be missed for sure.  The thing about surf forecasting, you can provide all the info you want to the masses - it still requires a brain, local knowledge and the ability to interpret information on the part of each individual surfer to "know when to go."  Even on our crowded coast, there are plenty of spots that will always remain uncrowded for that reason.

For us, large back to back northwest swells will continue through the weekend - getting extra large again by late Friday into Saturday (double/triple overhead).  Zonal flow is sending rain into the Pac NW, but we're on the wrong side of the jet stream and look to stay dry through the period.  In fact we're not forecast to have any rain near our region now through about Jan 10.  This is not good at all for Cali, with 38mil plus people and high water needs - we need snow and rains.  December will go down as the 3rd driest on record in San Francisco (going back 160 plus years) - so the situation is not a good one.  Many spots that need rain to turn on - are quietly  sleeping - yet we've had epic day after day at other locations.  It's a mixed bag.  Winds look pretty good through the weekend - especially for AM sessions.  Tides will mellow out some as well.  Plenty of size.  Happy New Year and cya in the water.

Big Swell for Christmas

Long period waves hit the Papa Buoy last night - peak at 22 ft, 19 seconds. Swell is inbound and will fill in late tonight through Saturday - good for double to triple overhead waves again through the weekend at north/northwest facing spots.  Winds will continue offshore, especially mornings.  High pressure looks to finally break down middle to late next week with a slight chance of rain starting Thursday.  No big soaking rains forecast, just systems brushing to our north.  Happy Holidays and cya in the water.

Forecast & Pics from Saturday, Dec 17

Doesn't get much better around here than this past Saturday.  Solid swell, off shores.  All photos courtesy of Sean Shafer.

As for forecast - solid WNW swell continues through most of the week with offshores forecast to kick back in tomorrow through Friday.  Swell today is still in the 10-12ft range at 14 sec from 300.  Plenty of surf all week.  Cya in the water.

Andrew Kidman

Andrew Kidman - InnerViews from www.KORDUROY.tv on Vimeo.


Thanks to Seekfind for posting on his blog.  Could totally relate to this tonight.

Weekend looks offshore and larger swell arrives Sunday

Back to back WNW swells will arrive starting late Friday - through Monday.  Should see some deepwater swell heights of 6-7ft late Friday - jumping up to 5-8ft Saturday - with bigger sets at northwest facing breaks.  By Sunday - double to triple overhead sets common at northwest facing breaks - with larger sets at times.  Could be offshore all day Saturday - for sure offshore Sunday morning.  High pressure is locking down the region again - and looks to stay dry through Christmas.  Right now we're running far below seasonal norms for rainfall and snow in the Sierra so it's a good time to remind everyone to conserve water.  We have a couple more months of winter left so let's hope the pattern changes.  In the meantime - just ideal surfing weather ahead.  Both swell events from nw at 280-300+.  cya in the water.