Weekend Forecast - Costa forecast for my traveling friends

So around here - the weekend looks small. Small NW swell and windswell is about all we have. Southern hemi is taking a breather. Winds look light thru the morning hours - W to NW 5-10 kts - increasing a bit over the afternoons. The mechanism that fuels El Nino and the transfer of warm water from West to East - is firing up again - which is a great sign. Two more weeks of watching and waiting and then we'll know how strong this upcoming El Nino event is going to be. Certainly looks moderate right now - although some comparisons to the Winter of 1997 are being made - and that was a very strong event. Wait and see. You can already see the impacts, as we've had no hurricanes in the Atlantic - El Nino shuts that down and fuels storm development in the Pacific Basin - hence the stronger south season we're currently enjoying. For my friends going to Costa next week - look for 2-4 ft surf Mon/Tues - more 2-4 Thurs/Fri and then possibly a bigger swell hits for Aug 6-9. So you guys should have a fun week of surf. Attached pic is one more from Malibu during the big swell on the 24th, 25th.

Malibu (July 25, 2009)

Check out this vid from Malibu over the weekend.

Gulf Wakes, more S/SW swells

Well, depending on what part of the Coast you were on over the weekend - you're were either really stoked or perhaps a bit disappointed. This large swell was certainly selective on what south/southwest facing beaches it chose to hit with it's full force. Pictures are from the Wedge and then one from one of our own local spots up on the Marin Coast. As for the surf ahead - the Gulf of Alaska is coming to life just a bit - with a storm now under the Kuril Islands which may send us a mid period NW swell late this week. We have back to back S/SW swells due as well - however these will be much smaller and a bit more shadowed than our swell winding down right now. Basically looks like something to surf right thru the week - with perhaps light winds in the morning hours increasing each afternoon. Still looks as if we're pushing towards a moderate El Nino event. Another couple weeks and we'll know for sure. Cya in the water.

All eyes to the south

Upcoming south swell will be the biggest we've seen around these parts in quite a while for a number of reasons:

First off - the storm that created the swell was pretty close to us (by southern hemi standards) at around 3600miles. The storm continued to move north during it's life - with a strong fetch of winds and no shadowing from the Tahitian Islands. Bascially a direct shot to CA - with swell energy mainly from 190-191 degrees. As a result - top south breaks could see some doubleoverhead set waves with many places going several feet overhead - primarily Friday and Saturday. Check the buoys late Thursday for the first signs of energy - this should be long period stuff. Friday - all day will be solid - from sunrise to sunset. Plenty of size around Saturday and Sunday and even Monday. Could be one for the record books for sure. I'll try and update late Thursday or Friday - especially if there is any change to the incoming swell trains. cya in the water.

Solid SW Swell due Thursday to Sunday

Tracking a pretty solid SW swell (185-195) which will start filling in Thursday afternoon and peak Friday. This swell should be good for head high plus sets at south facing breaks - with perhaps some even bigger sets at times. Right now we could see deep water swell at 3-4 ft at 19 sec on Friday during the peak of this swell with similar energy Saturday when the period drops to 16sec. We've also got some NW windswell due to hit late in the week - as well as the potential for a mid period NW swell from 290-310. So from Thursday thru Sunday of the coming week we should have plenty of waves about. We're also suppose to see a pretty strong high pressure set up from the desert SW - with very warm temps. The North Pacific is showing some very early signs of life - with systems tracking across under the Kuril Islands and into the Eastern Gulf of AK. Another 2-3 weeks and we should have a pretty clear picture how strong (and more importantly if) we're moving into an El Nino phase for the Fall/Winter season of 2009-2010. Stay tuned.

Fall Quiver...wishful thinking...

Bored to death this weekend - started pulling out the boards for that first run of good Fall waves and weather - can't get here soon enough right? L to R: 6.6 Flyer, 6.6 Flyer 2/quad, 6.9 Black Beauty. On ground - 6.4 Hess Pacheco Quad. Until then - windswell remains the main feature - stuff in the 7-9 sec variety - yummy. Maybe some glimmer of hope towards the later part of July with some storms stirring in the South Pacific. Also watching Hurricane Carlos and Trop Storm Delores for any sign of relief. Ongoing signs of some storm development in the North Pac. But right now not calling anything. Take what you can get and be happy!
cya in the water.

About as bad as it gets around here

Ugh, NW winds, fog, short period crappy windswell - we're in the middle of summer and it's pretty damn bad. The only long term hope is that all signs continue to point to El Nino - and a very strong event at that. Supporting this, is a low pressure system forecast to develop on Monday out in the West Pacific, which could set up some small 12 sec windswell - nothing epic, but given it's mid summer and a low pressure system is forecast to gain some traction - another possible sign of El Nino. At the same time - a big gale way down under is forecast to get going around 7-16 - so will keep an eye on that system and the Gulf Low. Between now and then - it's windswell and that's all you get.

SW Pulse in the water

Smaller than modeled SW in the water - 2.7 at 17 sec from 200 or so degrees. Winds are blowing hard from the NW - so get someplace protected that also likes a s/sw swell. Fog has been disrupted by high pressure and wind building to our N. SW swell should stick around and start fading tomorrow. Maybe some ongoing s/sw pulses during the week - but nothing epic. Windswell will be on the rise too and water temps will start to fall the longer these nw winds blow. Right now nothing of major significance from the north or south hemi long term. It is July - so have faith my brothers and sisters - we're that much closer to Fall!

cya in the water,
Wasab

Solid run of south swells coming up

Morning - the summer of good south swell action looks to continue 4th of july weekend right on through the week of july 6th. Back to back swells will start showing this coming Thursday with probably some of the better days looking like Sunday the 5th and Tues the 7th and Wed the 8th. The fog is coming back unfortunately, and looks to be in full force for the upcoming weekend, as another strong low comes into the NW creating a stronger onshore push. We might get some lighter winds nearshore - we'll have to see. I'll tweak things on the upcoming swells this coming Friday/Saturday when i have a better handle on the deepwater size to be expected. But right now looks pretty decent. Cya in the water.

"Searching for Michael Peterson" trailer

Legendary MP - trailer a film about his life. Looks pretty cool. If any of you ever watched Morning of the Earth - 70s classic from Director Albert Falzon - has some amazing footage of MP and others. MP's life was pretty tragic and complicated, yet he was and remains one of the most influential surfers of all time.

Series of south swells starting next weekend

Morning - Windswell remains our main source of swell right now - at least thru the week. A pretty steep South is due around these parts this coming weekend - Fri to Sun - angle of approach around 180-190 - size still TBD. Beyond that - another storm is forecast to form down under New Zealand on 6-25 lasting thru 6-28 - this should send up some decent swell in the 17 sec range - the following week (probably towards the 4th of July). NW winds look to continue most of the week over the outer waters, perhaps calmer in the mornings nearshore - water temps have dropped again - 50 degrees - thanks to a week of NW gale blow over the weekend. First Tropical Storm of the 09 Season has formed off Mexico - Andres - doesn't look to be a swell maker for our region, but may kick up some short/mid period stuff for Cabo. More and more forecasters are hinting at the formation of what could be a very strong El Nino for Fall/Winter this year - which could be a great source of swell in both hemispheres later in the year. that's all for now - cya in the water.

Nice South, Possible Offshore winds mid week

Morning - nice run of south swells in the water since this Friday past. Weekend was pretty sweet at the Beach and that trend continues today. We have a very steep south hitting - almost 4 ft at 17 from 165 - those places that can pick up that steep of an angle should be really good today. This south looks to stick around thru mid week and the flow is forecast to turn more offshore as we move more into the week as well - so conditions look pretty nice. What is causing all this weird windless weather and warm water temps? Well, La Nina is dead - she's gone and hopefully wont bother us again for a while. We have warmer water temps across the Pacific basin - from West to East, the jetstream is quite active for summer - which is also a possible sign of an El Nino pattern starting to take shape for the Fall. The southern hemi has been more active than in the past couple years - especially in the favored swell corridor by New Zealand - which gives us those nice long period souths like we've had of late. So get out there and enjoy. Cya in the water.

Somewhere in Northwest Mexico

Just back from a week in NW Mexico. Let yourself mindsurf this wave. This is Friday past, epic conditions, probably the best I've seen at this spot in three years. I had this break with one other guy for four days before the rest of our crew showed up and crowded the line up - ha. It was well worth a touch of the flu, the shits and sore muscles like I've never experienced. Going back in August and hopefully October. As for surf around these parts - small south continues but winds are problematic. Look for a series of south pulses to keep up through next week. Nothing huge, but something to surf. Get to Mexico if you have a chance in the next two weeks - as it looks like swell will be steady in that part of the world. Cya in the water.

South on the way for early June

Morning - not much relief in sight until around June 4th - that's when a nice size south should start showing and run through Jun 7th. Between now and then, windswell looks to be what we have with sw to w fog winds each day right on through the week. Could see a bit less wind by the weekend. We'll have some background south Friday through Sunday as well - but nothing to get that excited about. The swell next week is certainly one to keep an eye on - if it comes together as promised and doesn't get shredded by NW winds as it comes around Pt Conception - could be some fun waves. I will not be updating the blog 5-31 to 6-7 as I will be off the NW Coast of Mainland Mexi surfing! Will post pics the following week. Pic today is a buddy emerging from a warm Mexican barrel two summers ago. cya in the water.

Good time for golf

Both South and North Pacific locked down in high pressure mode. The No Pac is basically asleep now for summer. Windswell will continue to be the best hope we have for swell. Could see an uptick in South swell by the end of the week, but whatever does come through is going to remain very small. Winds look problematic most of the week with south to west fog winds. Long range models don't show anything of interest in sight. Could see a pattern change down under sometime mid next week - but right now that's just the models guessing. The good news - La Nina is basically dead in the Pacific. The atmosphere needs to stablize for the next couple months and warm water has returned to the East Pacific. We still have a very cold pool of water off the California/Pac NW Coasts - from months of north winds and high pressure - but that too should start to ease as we move through summer. If things continue, we'll possibly see good storm development in both North and South Pacific for Fall of 2009. cya in the water.

Farewell to a Friend

We said goodbye to a great friend yesterday. Our Bernese Mtn Dog Brady - she would have been 12yrs this August. She was brave, kind, smart, loving and the best friend to both myself and my wife. Our lives were better with her around and she will be deeply missed around the house. If you own a pet, give them an extra hug today and appreciate their presence in your life.

Small South/Windswell - Good time to grab a fish!

Very small/steep angle (180+) south filling in tonight - getting hammered by the north winds and windswell down thru Point Conception. Look for maybe 2 ft at 17 sec tomorrow and then swell will fade out on Sunday. Windswell really looks to rule the day for the next week - with N/NW winds pretty much everyday. Not much else doing. Some cool fishes posted here. Top photo - 5.8 Hydrodynamica Simmons and 5.8 Larry Mabile keel fin fish. Bottom photo - 5.8 Jeff Mccallum 2nd generation Simmons with keels. Ah summer, always a nice time to test pilot some new shapes. Makes the most of the mush - but these boards fly if you can land some clean face time. Cya in the water.

Solid Late Season West

Evening - solid West swell starting to show tonight - deepwater at Pt Reyes is 5 at 14 from 290 (Pt Arena is 12ft at 13 sec.) Size will continue to increase overnight with well overhead to double overhead sets at the best deep water spots on Monday. Size sticks around Tuesday (all energy from 270-300), perhaps drops a bit and then another reinforcing shot builds back in on Wed for more well overhead and double overhead sets. SE winds forecast on Monday as the next slug of Pacific moisture moves ashore. Light S winds 5-10kts on Tuesday, and S 5-15kt on Wed. Look for a return to NW winds on Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds back in to the East Pacific and the pressure gradient tightens up. Make the best of this West swell - could be the last one we see for a while with some push. cya in the water.

Could be worse.......

Just back from five days in LA - super nice south swell hit down there - surfed overhead Malibu on Friday and Saturday with 500 of my closest friends. We may have the fog and wind and junky windswell - I'll take that over the madness to our South. As for us - not much relief in sight this week - light NW to W west winds next cple days - followed by a shift in the winds to the SE/South/SW towards the weekend. Very small, uneventful surf through the weekend - with maybe a little pulse up towards the end of the week. Winds will remain on the LIGHTER side, so that is one thing going in our favor. Chance of rain as we move through the week - especially Friday thru Sunday. Here's another OB macker from that Big Monday a few weeks back - just to remind all of you it does get damn fine around these parts! cya in the water somewhere.

First Good South headed our way

Morning - first decent south of the season headed our way - with long period energy due to be on the rise Wed/Thurs. Deep water swell should be in the 3-4 ft range at 17-20 sec from 192-198. There are two pulses to this swell and if the 2nd part lives up to forecast that may come in at 4-4.5 at 16-17 from 180-186 over the weekend. That could be on the high side - but we'll see. If you can get to So Cal or points further south - this swell should really be pumping. Winds dont look too bad until Fri/Sat when they turn to the NW - so this swell is going to march up the Coast with very little interference. We have a chance of very light rain showers over the weekend - but that is starting to look less and less likely. Pattern in the North Pac is looking meager - so make the best of what you can get over the next week. Finally - if anyone has OB pics from yesterday send them along and i'll post. I came over the dunes at Judah for a mid day sesh and I swear it looked and felt like Baja. cya in the water.