PLENTY OF SWELL ON TAP, CLEAN CONDITIONS

Old west/northwest swell fading out this am at 7ft 11 seconds, new swell loading up at far northern buoys - 9-10 ft at 20 seconds.   That swell will fill in all day and be solid by tomorrow morning.   Winds are offshore pretty much up and down the coast as high pressure rules the day.  No rain in sight through most of next week until the pattern breaks down potentially next weekend.  Until then, look for clean conditions especially for AM sessions with swell gradually fading by around next Wednesday.   Beach breaks should be pretty fun from Monday to Wednesday.   Cya in the water.

ANOTHER BIG WEST SWELL LOADING UP....

Hope you enjoyed the Winter Solstice.  Break between big swells today - deep water around 7.5-8 ft at 12 seconds from 300 plus.  Break will be short-lived as the Papa Buoy is already showing deep water swell at 19ft 14-15 seconds.   That will arrive tonight and be in full force tomorrow, along with a new round of rain showers lasting through Christmas.   On and off rain, wind, lots of swell.   There will be moments if you pick your windows wisely.  Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and cya in the water.  

WHOA! BIGGEST SWELL OF THE YEAR INBOUND THIS WEEKEND

As if it's not been big enough the past two weeks.....Large storm system with a dynamic fetch (means the winds are moving at a high speed in the same direction of an already created swell) all pushing east towards the West Coast - creating a huge swell event for Sunday night and Monday.   Satellite pass yesterday revealed seas in excess of 51ft and the storm was only 1500 miles from the Coast.  NOAA is predicting long period swell of 18-20ft (Bay Area), 20-23 ft (North Coast) with extremely long periods of 19-21 seconds.  Deepwater breaks like Mavericks and others will be in excess of 50ft on Monday.   We still have large swell until then, staying mostly above 10ft until Sunday night.   Storm door is open as well, quick moving storm today and tonight - break Saturday and then another quick moving system Sunday.  Winds don't look great - going to stay mostly south to southwest through Sunday night.   Might see light northwest winds for Monday (Bay Area), but winds on the far North Coast should remain west to southwest.  Monday should certainly be one to go and witness.  Be cautious and alert if you're near the beaches.   Cya in the water.

WEEKEND FORECAST

Long period swell continuing this morning at 8-9ft at 18 seconds from 300.   Still quite solid, but down a few notches from yesterday.  Picture is from the North Sonoma Coast as lines marched in.
Swell will continue to fade into tomorrow, but still be 6-8 at 15 seconds.   One more day of high pressure and then two new storm systems arriving affecting our weather until Monday.   The first one this evening will mainly affect the region north of Cape Mendo.   The second, Saturday night into Sunday should bring rains region wide - with lesser amounts south of Sonoma.  Winds will stay east to southeast today and southeast tomorrow.   South winds ramp up Saturday night through Sunday.   Swell will crank back up Sunday night through Monday - back in the 10-12 ft range (deepwater).  So no shortage of swell for the foreseeable future - just keep an eye on the winds.   Cya in the water.

BIG AND STORMY

Pt Arena Buoy is 16ft at 14 seconds this am.  Whoa.   Next in a series of storm systems knocking on the door which will bring rain, high winds and large surf.  Another large west swell lines up for later this week.   Storm door is open, south wind door is open, swell door is open.  Perhaps a good time to travel south to the safety of So Cal or Baja.   Cya in the water.  

THANKSGIVING WEEK FORECAST - ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN

This AM features offshore winds, cool temps and lingering northwest swell - 4-5 ft at 12-13 seconds. Today and part of tomorrow should be the last of the smoke filled days as our weather pattern finally shifts into something that looks like late autumn.   A series of Pacific weather systems will impact CA starting late Tuesday and lasting through at least Friday, perhaps longer for our northern areas through the weekend.   Southeast winds will be on the rise tomorrow and get stronger through about Wednesday night - transitioning over to southwest winds Thanksgiving Day and Friday.   Small west swell will continue and then build Wednesday with long period forerunners at 3-4 ft @18 seconds.  Thursday, west swell will be 8-11ft and 10-12ft on Friday (deep water heights).   Heaviest rain looks to be Wednesday (with mountain snow) - and then again late Thanksgiving Day into Friday.   Plenty of swell on tap - winds just look a bit dicey.   However, if you know your spots you might find some moments.   Happy Thanksgiving, cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - SOLID SWELL FOR MID/LATE WEEK

East winds continue to transport heavy smoke from the Camp fire in Paradise to the Bay Area and points north.   Small surf today, 2-3 ft - mix of southwest and northwest swells.   Look for swell to ramp up late Wednesday - probably overnight - and be quite solid for Thursday/Friday - with stand out winter breaks back in the double to triple overhead range.  Light winds should continue Wednesday, increase from the northwest on Thursday and then back off again Friday/Saturday.   This incoming swell will gradually fade through the weekend.   AM sessions should be pretty clean through the period - just check the winds later in the week.   For those looking for any sign of rain - long term models aren't really showing anything until Thanksgiving or beyond.   The good news is the blocking ridge of high pressure, which has been situated offshore for almost a month is forecast to move out and low pressure will take it's place.   How long and how much rain we will get - too early to know.   Models should have a better handle on that by early next week.   Until then, should be plenty of surf on tap.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - Good week for work

Not much to talk about this week.  High pressure is locked offshore around 135W.  Almost stationary and shunting storms to our north.   Strong northwest winds and junky short period windswell through the week.   No rain in sight which is not a good thing with November upon us.  Pattern might start to break down middle of the month - but nothing solid on the charts right now for swell or weather.  Cya in the water.

WEEKEND FORECAST & BEYOND - 10-26

Sorry for the break in reports - been surfing a ton and taking advantage of all the swell and good conditions this past month.   We have a pretty decent shot of northwest swell in the water today - deepwater is 8-9 ft at 13 seconds from around 300.   Local beaches are pretty walled, with fog and light winds.   Over the outer waters,  winds are strong from the northwest and pretty ugly.   High pressure is building in today and tomorrow before giving way to a weak system that will move in on Sunday but keep all rain towards the Oregon border.   Winds will probably shift south to southwest ahead of the front and then north to northwest behind it.   Look for the northwest swell to gradually fade but stick around through Sunday, then another northwest swell train will come in with deep water heights projected to be 6-10ft at 15 seconds.  Peaking Monday at 10-11ft.   That swell should stick around well into middle of next week.   Winds aren't looking ideal, however given the time of year we might see some offshore flow for the AM's only - but expect winds to pick up through the day as high pressure will be about and influencing our local wind and weather.   There will continue to be a fair amount of background southwest swell in the 2-3ft range - so it's not over down under yet.   Much of that will get lost in the northwest swell.   Plenty to ride, some spots should be decent.   Cya in the water.

SOLID SOUTHWEST, MORE SWELL ON THE WAY...

SW swell is 3.1 @18 this AM from 210.  Looking for this swell to hang around through Tuesday with light winds.  By midweek, models are growing more confident we will see a very solid west/northwest swell from around 280-300 deg.  Could be good for overhead to double overhead waves at top spots from Wed to Fri.   Winds could be favoring offshore AM sessions by this time as well.   Another solid southwest swell is forecast for around Oct 22-25.   All in all, pretty solid month of surf, as it should be in October.   Cya in the water.

SWELL FROM EVERYWHERE - WEEKEND FORECAST

Our first pulse of northwest swell is winding down this am - swell is 4-6ft at 12-13 seconds from 295.   Also have a small southwest swell in the water - 2-3 at 14 from 205.   We have swell inbound from N and S this weekend.   South swell from Hurricane Sergio and another Gulf Swell set to roll in Saturday.   Sergio swell should show Saturday at select breaks.  Models are forecasting deepwater heights of 3-5ft at 19sec for Saturday night.   This might be a bit overdone, but we will wait and see as the swell starts rolling up the Coast.   Swell will stay solid on Sunday, 3-4 at 18 seconds.  In fact, expect the Sergio swell to stick around until around next Tuesday.   As for the N Pac swell(s) - we're going to have a lot of wind starting Saturday and that will really ramp up the wind swell (and drop water temps again).   Peak of that event should be Saturday night into Sunday 8-11ft (offshore waters), smaller nearshore.   In addition we will have a longer period west/northwest swell from the remnants of Typhoon Trami which went extratropical this past week and will send in a longer period swell at 3-5ft at 19 deepwater 300-305 on Saturday.   Sunday period will be down to 18 seconds and 16 seconds on Monday.   Winds will be the issue over the weekend and into next week as an inside slider is dropping down the State over the weekend which will ramp up the north to northwest winds strongly starting Saturday night.   We could see some offshore winds by next week at certain spots along the Coast, so keep an eye on it.   However, with all the swell sources this weekend and beyond, there should be plenty of spots holding waves and rideable.  Cya in the water.  Yay Fall!  

HURRICANE ROSA, N PAC TO GET BUSY, S PAC STAYING BUSY....

Interesting pattern taking shape offshore tonight with some possible rain coming into our region tomorrow and then again Mon/Tues.   No gully washers mind you, just a little shot here and there.   In addition to the active weather, Hurricane Rosa is churning off Baja and moving slowly north/northwest through the weekend with a decent chance we will see some swell from that system by Sunday (Bay Area), Monday/Tuesday (points further north).   If one believes the models, could actually see deepwater swell from Rosa late Sunday going 3ft plus at 14 seconds from a very steep 165.   Monday, swell forecast to build to 5ft at 15sec also at 165 (quite solid if this materializes) and then fading Tuesday at 3-3.5ft at 13-14 seconds from 165.   Due to the angle of approach only the best south facing spots will pick this swell up and much will just radiate by the California Coast.   Also keeping an eye on two storms in the N Pac over the weekend to see if any swell materializes for next week and from the S Pac two storm systems in play for perhaps some swell late next week or early the following.   Winds look pretty light through about next Wednesday.  Fall is here.   Cya in the water.  

HAPPY FALL - WEEKEND UPDATE

Today is the first full day of fall.   Small southwest swell is in 1.9ft @17 from 195.   Quick check of conditions show light winds and fog everywhere.   Swell to stick around tomorrow and then fade out and then it's back to a windswell regime for the foreseeable future.   No swell of interest from the North Pacific forecast in the coming week.   Still waiting for the machine to kick in.   Long term odds look better for late Sept into the first week of October if one can believe the models this far out.  So get what you can and best conditions will probably be found early over the next week.  Cya in the water.

WEEKEND FORECAST/SEPT 14

New southwest swell in this morning at 2-3 ft @18 from175.  Winds are lighter from the northwest than they've been.   Look for south swell to continue for the next few days with no real clean up with the winds (or fall offshores) - so AM sessions will be best.   Still watching for our first northwest swell of the season - nothing yet.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - SEPT 6

Small southwest swell started rolling in yesterday and continues this AM.   2.2@15 from 190.   This swell will slowly fade out tomorrow.   Wind swell remains in the water as well - 3-5ft at 6-8 seconds from 300 +.   No swell producing storms forecast in the N Pac yet, but there is activity and things look to perhaps improve mid to late next week as a series of stronger fronts get traction.  In the meantime - we have a run of southwest swell coming for this weekend.   First forerunners will come in late Saturday, 1-2ft at 20-21 sec.   Sunday, swell builds to 2.8 at 18 sec and will hold at that duration through Monday.   Swell will begin a slow fade by next Tuesday with period down to 14-15 sec.   Swell direction will be around 170-180 - so a touch steep.   Wind and fog remain the issue with no offshore winds forecast at this time.   Keep an eye on the winds, AM sessions probably the best right now until we start getting some fronts through the Pac Northwest into the Great Basin giving us a bigger hint of fall.   Cya in the water.  

SEPTEMBER!

Welcome to the 2018/19 surf season in Northern California.   Made it through another summer.   Going to look like summer for a while yet as we have strong northwest winds, dropping water temps again and lots of wind swell.   Wind swell will get larger towards Sunday so some spots that can pull in that energy and keep you out of the wind might be the call.   Not many of those exist around these parts, but there are a few.   Don't see much let up in winds through early next week and no ground swell on the horizon yet from the North Pacific.   Could see a small south swell starting around Monday - but feel like it might get beat down and lost under the more dominant NW flow.   Some small background hurricane swell from Miriam and Norman could dribble in over the weekend as well at south facing spots - but don't expect much above waist high.   Cya in the water and i'll be back to more regular reports now that it's September!  

SMELLS LIKE FALL.....

Rambling thru the Russian River Valley this week and the local trees are showing color.   Ocean has been smooth from Salmon Creek and points north.   Sept 1 is almost here.   If you're like me, you love this time of year in Nor Cal.   Nothing on the horizon yet, just small northwest swell for the next couple days - 3-5ft at 11 seconds.   Northwest winds will start to ramp up towards the weekend - especially offshore and we'll see a batch of windswell with short periods develop.    AM sessions might be best for winds.   Keeping an eye on the N Pac - it's most definitely getting active in the higher latitudes, just need some troughs to drop down and get some traction over the open waters.   It's coming......cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - SOUTH SWELL ABOUT TO HIT!

Good looking southwest swell on the way up the coast tonight - already showing in So Cal at 3ft - 3.8ft at 18-20 seconds!  For us this one should peak around 3ft to 3.3 ft at 18 seconds overnight - be quite solid Friday at 3ft plus at 15 seconds, same on Saturday and begin a slow fade into Sunday at 2.9 ft at 14 seconds.   Direction about 180 degrees.   Swell will fade further Monday and be gone Tuesday.   Get some and cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST/MID AUGUST....Watching the N Pac

This morning we have tropical swell in the water from ex Hurricane John.   Swell is 2.5ft at 12 sec from around 170, pretty steep angle but it will get it to the right spots.   Also have a very small west swell in the water - about 1.5 ft at 11 sec from 190.  That west swell is from a Gulf of Alaska low that was spinning off the Pac Northwest this week and is now moving inland.  There is another southwest swell due in tomorrow late and that swell will probably max around around 2ft @ 14-17 sec from 200.   Also watching the remnants of Tropical Storm Shanshan - which is moving up and east of North Japan which is then forecast to continue racing east pushing over the Dateline over this weekend and might give us some small west to northwest background swell later next week.   That's a sign of fall when extratropical storms start to recurve and track east.   Will continue to monitor that corridor for activity.   Otherwise, watching the N Pac for early signs of the season.   Winds still aren't ideal and are forecast to ramp up again from the northwest this weekend - but there will be spots to ride and early mornings likely best.   Cya in the water.

AUGUST UPON US, SEPTEMBER INCHING CLOSER......

July comes to an end with wind and meager wind swell.   That should be the case for the rest of the week and then some as high pressure remains in control.   Could see an increase in the wind swell size by week's end, but don't look for much clean to ride.  Northwest winds are going to remain strong especially over the outer waters and points north.   Water temps have cooled off again as well. Might see some action from the south towards the middle part of August.   Hang in there as September is only a month away and the start to the fall surfing season.   Cya in the water.