UPDATED FORECAST 7-28 - ACTIVE TROPICS ** New forecast links

Just need to get through the next couple days and then we should start seeing some swell from tropical systems to our south as well as southwest swell from way Down Under.   Tropical Storm Irwin and Hurricane Hilary are both about 900-1000 miles off Cabo.   Irwin is not going to be a swell producer, in fact will get sucked up into Hilary over the next few days and orbit each other in a rare event called a Fujiwhara interaction.   Swell from Hilary should start to show Sunday 7-30 at 3-4ft deepwater at 13 seconds (maybe longer period forerunners of 17-18 sec before) and peak Monday 7-31 with deepwater swell at 4ft 13 seconds.   Very steep angle at 165 - so it's going to miss a lot of our coast as it comes in.  At the same time two longer period fetches from the south will arrive - both will max out at about 2-3 ft 15-18 seconds but a better swell direction with both of these events at 175-180 - which is still rather "south" for our area.   Winds are going to be an issue as the northwest wind machine will be ramping up with the normal Pacific high pressure/thermal low pressure inland deal that is so common up here during the summer and has been quite persistent this summer.   There is a West Pacific Hurricane called Noru that has brought surf to Kauai today and tomorrow - an early sign of things changing as we move towards August.   Redwoods are also starting to get some brown brambles which is also a good indicator.   One more month to go until Sept 1 and right on cue - the patterns out there - both on land and in the ocean are following suit.
Note - i've added two links in the forecast section.   CDIP All Pac Buoy link gives you a look at deepwater swell around the Pacific Basic and even points beyond.   Stormsurf/Quik/CAST - these guys are the best in my mind at predicting weather, swell, wind and everything else as it applies to surfing on our coast or anywhere for that matter.   This is a summary page for Nor Cal - I've used for years when i want a quick look at what is going on.

UPDATED FORECAST - 7-20

It's pretty ugly friends.   No swell from the south to speak of - dribble from the northwest and day after day of winds.   Water is cold too.   Looks to stay this way for the remainder of the month up here - a few background pulses of south now and then.   Things might improve as we start August - but that's way out there.   Best bet is to travel south - anywhere but here.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - JULY 8TH

Long period forerunners tonight of a series of south swells due for the region.  Deep water swell is 1.3ft at 18 from a steep 175.  Swell looks to be around all next week - with deep water heights around 3ft - forecast to increase Wednesday and Thursday 3-5ft.   So it should be a pretty good run of south swell.   Winds - you know the deal - it's July - northwest winds will be the norm - lightest morning and late afternoon/early evening.   Spots protected from the northwest winds will be best and those spots tend to be south facing and will pick up all the swell.   Cya in the water.

JULY 4TH WEEKEND

Good weekend to mountain bike, play golf, travel to Mexico for waves etc....It's not really happening around here.   The good news?  It's July - we're closer to September 1, and perhaps we might be closer to some decent waves at some point in the near future.   There is a chance we may see a good run of southwest swell starting around the 7th, lasting through next weekend - with lighter winds forecast starting tomorrow.   Don't expect epic non wind conditions mind you, but better than it's been.   Until then - get what you can or do something else.   On another note - i've added another link in the forecast section of the blog - NOAA Pacific Viewer - this will give you the global view of significant wave height in both the N Pac and S Pac.   Enjoy.   Cya in the water.  

END OF JUNE - UPDATED FORECAST

Had a pretty nice run of south swell since late last week.  That event is winding down with some left overs today at 2ft @14 from 190.   Northwest winds will be on the rise and stay elevated through the weekend.  North windswell will develop and be largest north of the Bay.   Background southwest swells will come in through the end of the week - waist to maybe shoulder high at the best summer breaks.   Spots protected from the northwest wind will be the call all week long and into the holiday.  Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - JUNE 19

Not much change anticipated over the coming week, but we will see some pulses of back to back small southwest swells in the water, with the first one slated to arrive late today, followed by two others throughout the period.   Nothing epic mind you, small, probably waist to chest high at times at the best facing south breaks.   Windswell will continue and winds will ramp up to near gale force again as the week goes, with high pressure in the Pacific interacting with low pressure over land.   Know your spots and you'll probably find something to ride - keep your expectations in check.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST JUNE 5

North winds all weekend have dropped water temps back to 49.   Unorganized windswell in the water - 7-10ft depending on location.   Southwest swell continues through Thursday this week, but really only showing a south facing spots protected from the winds.  We have a solid chance of rain coming this week - unseasonable for June - Thursday into Friday.   Look for the most rain Sonoma County and points north as a fairly strong late season storm comes ashore.   The official end of the rainy season is June 30 with new season starting July 1, so it is quite rare to get an organized system this late into the year.   Take what you can get this week, waves round to ride if you know where to look.   Cya in the water.

Few Boards for Sale.....

If anyone is interested, selling a couple boards:
6.6 Hypto Crypto with fins - $250.00 - thruster, round pin - great condition.
6.6 Fowler Fountain of Youth with fins - $250.00 - squash tail, thruster, great board to gravel in small waves and goes solid in bigger surf.   Also in great condition.
email me at bnovick@me.com

UPDATED FORECAST 5-16

You'll notice my reports getting a bit stretched out.  It's spring in Nor Cal - so not much to report.   Winds are blowing from the west/northwest and a storm system is diving down from BC that will bring rain to far northwest CA and maybe some showers are far south as Sonoma/Marin late today.   Windswell is our primary source of waves and looks to stay that way through the week.  Looking ahead we might see a better run of south swells as we start the month of June.   Until then, get what you can when you have an opportunity.   Should be enough windswell around to get wet somewhere. Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 5-8

As noted this morning by the SF NOAA forecaster - Bodega Buoy reporting water temp of 47 degrees (almost hit 46) - coldest since June of 2013.  All the wind over the past weekend has the upwelling machine in full motion.   Nothing that exciting on tap this week - mid range windswell and northwest swell thru the period - winds will continue to blow over the outer and northern waters all week - lightest day looks Thursday - nearshore winds harder to forecast so might be worth a look through the week.  Could also be a good week to get some work done too.   Cya in the water.

MAY 1 - UPDATED FORECAST

Northwest winds continue to blow over outer waters this am - but near shore, winds are light and variable.   This has been the pattern the past few days.   Forecast calls for very warm temps and offshore winds mid week - with those winds making it to the coast - will see if that materializes.  We have a small southwest swell in the water today (1.6 at 18 sec) and north windswell continuing.  The evolution this week of waves and weather goes like this:   new pulse of southwest swell fills in Thursday and peaks Friday.   Deepwater swell is forecast at 3ft from 195-200.   At the same time, a storm system in the Gulf of Alaska is going to develop and kick up a northwest swell event which by Friday is forecast to be running 8-10ft.    There will be slight chance of showers late in the week into the weekend, and northwest winds will pick up strongly after that low pressure system ejects off to the east.    Winds are going to be highly variable all week - so check it.   Should be something to ride each day at the right spots.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST - END OF APRIL

It would appear that the record breaking winter of 2017 is finally over, high pressure, specifically the spring/summer East Pacific High Pressure ridge has arrived and should keep the storm track well to the north for extended period.   Could still see a chance of rain during the month of May, but climatology doesn't favor much.   Along with the high, north to northwest winds have been blowing the past few days and will continue to do so - especially over the outer waters and far northern waters.   As a result, SST's (water temps) have dropped to 50 at Bodega Buoy and 49 at San Francisco Buoy.   So if you like cold water and junky windswell this weekend is certainly your time to hit it.   Pretty much look for winds and short period windswell through next week.   Windwell will be 7-10ft at 8, 9,10 seconds.   Good times.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 4-22, SOUTHWEST SWELL

SW swell in the water this am - 3-4ft at 17-18 seconds from 195.   Small north swell continues as well.   Winds are generally east or non existent as a weak front is moving through Northwest CA - actually bringing rain north of Jenner at present.   Crazy swing from the great day yesterday.  Winds will most likely pick up behind the front tonight and tomorrow and west swell will increase back to 9-10 ft at 14 seconds and that swell will pretty much hold through Monday, back off some Tuesday and then increase again on Wednesday as the Pacific remains very active for this late in the season with more rain forecast on Monday/Tuesday - heavy rain in fact far north, with much less around the Bay Area.   Southern Hemisphere season has started at this point and is also pretty active.   The current sw swell will probably be lost in the more dominant energy tomorrow, however spots that like swells from that direction will be fun.   Check the winds - plenty to ride for the coming week.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - EASTER WEEKEND

With this past week's storms Nor Cal just broke the all time wettest season on record surpassing 1982-83 (which was a strong El Nino event).   The eight station recording index now shows a cumulative total of over 90 inches of rain for the year.   Surf wise, not bad to start today, winds are light northeast and surf is overhead at west/north facing breaks.   North swell is 5-7ft at 10 sec, very small background SSW swell in the water too - but mostly lost under the northern energy.   There is a new northwest swell filling in today - deepwater should stay in the 6-7ft at 14 sec range.  Winds will turn south overnight as the first in a series of weaker storm systems comes ashore bringing more rain. Easter Sunday should feature south winds - swell 4-6ft at 15 with rain becoming likely during the day.  Two more systems slated to come through until next Wednesday, then high pressure will build once again.   Winds don't look that heavy for the first part of the week - fluctuating between south and west as systems come and go.   Check the winds and you'll probably find a spot to ride.   Swell will stay in the small to medium size range through the period.  Cya in the water.

JANUARY IN APRIL - UPDATED FORECAST

More rain today as another short wave pinwheels at the bottom of a low pressure trough located in the Gulf of AK - brief high pressure should build later today - into tomorrow, but another spoke of energy is going to rotate in on Sunday - best chance rain North Bay.   Another break and then models are hinting at another very significant storm mid to late week - like the system that came through a few days ago bringing high winds, heavy rain and very large swell.  Surf is 11ft at 12 sec from 300.   Winds are west/southwest and water temps 50 degrees in the Bay Area - colder further north.   Might not be a surf day unless you like the junk.   Not seeing a real break in winds over the next week - will fluctuate between south/southwest as systems come through and then northwest behind front passage.   Plenty of swell on tap as more swell trains will move through the waters.   Check the winds each day and you'll probably find spots to ride.   Climate models are saying La Nina is over and El Nino is already starting to show signs of coming back to life for next winter.   I'm not sure what that is going to look like, given we are about to break the all time record for wet weather (1982-83) during a season that i don't think any of the experts predicted would happen.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 3-29

Strong northwest winds are blowing this AM after passage of a cold front overnight which dropped some rain throughout the region.   High pressure in control now through the weekend and likely beyond with strong northwest winds forecast.   Decent size swell is in the water and will build through the weekend - 10-13ft on Saturday, 15-18ft on Sunday, fading some on Monday.   Spots protected from the northwest winds will obviously be cleaner.   Anything facing west/northwest will be shredded from the wind.   Water temps will likely begin to cool off with the never ending spring time winds that are setting up.   Long range models still hinting at more rain late next week will see if that comes to pass.   The region is just shy of the all time rainfall record from the 82-83' Super El Nino - we need about 5 more inches to surpass that.   The current rainy season doesn't end until Jun 30.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 3-26

Last week of March.   Chance of rain later today (it's raining further north) and then overnight this system will exit giving way to northwest winds on Monday and northwest swell 9ft at 11 seconds.  Expect swell size to continue at 9-11ft with short periods pretty much through next Friday, along with northwest winds 15-25kts most of next week - getting stronger late week as we are seeing the Pacific High start to set up for Spring.   Could see a minor system brush the region mid week with chance of rain, beyond that - dry weather will prevail.   Spots protected from the northwest wind will be your best shot at anything clean and rideable.   Cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST 3-17

Storm door opens this weekend with rain on and off forecast through next Friday.   Strongest storm of the cycle will be next Thursday to Friday.   Looking for mainly south to southwest winds through the period as well with small to mid size west/northwest swells propagating through our waters.   Should be waves to ride - just check the winds.   Winter is not done with us yet.  Cya in the water.  

MARCH 11, UPDATED FORECAST

Spring ahead tonight and set your clocks forward.   Winds are light near shore at the moment but that will change later as northwest winds are blowing offshore around 15-18kts.   Steep angled swell - 5-7ft at 10 seconds from 315.   Looking a lot like spring.   Small west to northwest swell forecast through the period at 4-6ft 10-12 seconds along with northwest winds pretty much through next Wednesday.   Winds might be lighter for AM sessions - doubtful for PM sessions.   Next chance of rain might be mid week - north of Marin - but the North Pacific Spring High Pressure is looking to set up and might put an end to what has been a very historic rainy season in CA.   Cya in the water.

MARCH 1ST

Generally nice conditions expected through Friday with lighter morning winds and small west to northwest swells.  While northwest winds will blow over the outside waters, AM sessions like this morning should feature northeast to offshore winds, although a small change in the pressure gradient could bring the northwest winds closer to shore.   Afternoons will for sure see an increase in winds.  Swell should stay around 5-7ft through Saturday.   The high pressure ridge will begin to break down by the weekend with rain returning to the north early in the weekend and through the Bay Area by Sunday.   Longer range models continue to show a wet pattern returning for next week.  So get these nice days while you can.  As we are starting March, you can generally expect an uptick in northwest winds in general as we move through the month and the East Pacific high tries to establish itself for spring/summer.   Remains to be seen when that happens and I think we could be in for a fairly wet spring given the winter we've had.  Cya in the water.