Happy Fall!

Autumn Equinox happened at 120am this morning.  It's officially the first day of Fall.  Let's hope for plenty of swell, rain and some nice offshore wind events.  None of those things to occur between now and the weekend however - decent size wind swell in the water through Friday - but winds look to remain onshore and fairly strong - especially the further north you go.  Good time to get some work done.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Monday, Sept 21

One more really warm day inland and then things will start to cool off some towards seasonal norms. Short period wind swell in the water with light/variable winds.  Winds should pick up more onshore as the day progresses.  Winds look stronger onshore tomorrow through Wednesday - wind swell will increase in size thru tomorrow and then drop off.  Then we are looking towards a short/mid period swell event (280-320) from Thursday to Sunday, from a system in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska bringing head to overhead waves (biggest from Sonoma north).    Winds look suspect from mid week on due in part to that front moving into the Pac Northwest, so keep an eye on the wind links on the right hand side of the page.  We do have some overlapping southwest swells this week - but nothing remarkable.  Maybe some knee to chest high sets at south facing breaks.  In the bigger picture, the northern branch of the jet stream remains up in Alaska with high pressure anchored offshore and in the Pacific - pretty much the set up we've had for the past four years.  So the connection between El Nino and the N Pac Jet is not showing real improvement just yet.   This should change as we move deeper into the fall and winter when the main impact of El Nino starts to influence the upper atmosphere wind patterns and storm production.  Until then - shorter period/mid period wind swell the rule.   There are a couple tropical systems in the Pacific right now - far west and east - but nothing that looks to give us swell any time soon.  Cya in the water.

Cape Mendo Buoy offline now....

Another buoy to our north has gone offline.  It really will be back to old school surf checks soon - you'll have to drive to see what the surf looks like.  Maybe that's not such a bad thing.....So the Cape Mendo buoy has stopped transmitting - not sure if it's a temporary glitch or it's toast.  It might be toast.  We have deepwater swell in the 5-6ft range at 8-10 seconds from the northwest.  Winds are up a bit onshore - not horrible yet.  Should start blowing far north later today as high pressure regains control.  Good rainfall yesterday. Parts of Marin reported .50 inch of rain - up in Sonoma/Mendo some reports of 2.5 inches.  Decent for Mid Sept.  Look for swell to stay the same the rest of the week.  Might see an uptick over the weekend, but it's just wind swell.  There is a sw swell in the water, which was heavily shadowed by Tahiti.  So expect long waits and not much size - but south facing breaks will show this energy best.   Hint we might see some offshore wind this weekend - but i'm skeptical right now those winds will make it to the coast.  Check it for sure.  Cya in the water.

PT Reyes Buoy Gone

PT Reyes Buoy has been "decommissioned" by the CDIP.  So it's gone.  I had read that the National Park Service was going to try and cover costs to keep online - but unlikely that will happen.  Lost another good window to incoming swells up here - both from the north and south.  At this rate, I will probably start using tarot cards soon to read incoming swell trains.  Mid period northwest wind swell remains in the water today 3-5 ft at 8-10 seconds, but winds are blowing from the northwest in wake of the weather system that brought very light rain to the region yesterday.  Next weather maker is plowing down from the Gulf of Alaska - looks impressive on satellite imagery for Mid September and will bring rain to most of Northern California starting tomorrow morning far north and spreading south through the day.  Good news for the fires raging.  Winds and weather near the coast will continue to be an issue next couple days.  Good time to get some work done.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Monday Sept 14

Pattern change in the upper levels as the storm track is opening in the NE Pacific sending a series of weather systems our way through about Thursday.  Most of the rain will stay north of the Golden Gate with very light amounts forecast around the Bay Area (.10 to .25 of an inch) - however far northwest CA (Del Norte, Kings Range) will see upwards of 1-2 inches of rain by Thursday morning.   Northern buoys are showing the result - swell is 12-14ft at 9-10 seconds as winds have been blowing steady for 36 hours in the northeast quadrant of the Gulf of Alaska.  Winds are blowing south/southwest in advance of the first front now entering coastal waters.  In fact, don't look for much help in the wind department most of the week as things look marginal at best with south to southwest winds as fronts pass through the region - west to northwest behind.  A harbinger of things to come for this upcoming surf season perhaps?  Northwest windswell will dominate the week.  Biggest to the north.  You might find some windows in between fronts and early am sessions.  Things look to settle down again by next weekend with high pressure building into the region and warm temps returning inland.  May see a new pulse of WNW swell around the 17th/18th - more on that to come and look for a building SW swell later this week (Thursday) for waist/chest high surf at south facing breaks.  Watch the winds, cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/El Nino Update

SSW swell holding steady today at around 3ft 17 seconds from 180.  Wind swell at 3 ft 9 seconds from 310 plus.  This SSW swell will hold thru the end of the week and fade out Friday.   WSW swell from former Hurricane Jimena is fading out today.  Winds near the coast are light but trending onshore and we may see an increase in the fog and wind over the next couple days as the pressure gradient begins to weaken just a tad.  Inland temps will continue hot to extreme so only relief will be near the coast.  On a larger scale, Hurricane Ignacio has turned extra tropical in the North Pacific and will send a shot of steep angled NW swell (300-320) that will build in Thursday (northern areas first) and spread south during the day Friday.  Should fade over the weekend.  Size wise, probably on par with the wind swell now in the water.  The Jetstream in the North Pacific is showing some signs of Fall - but nothing remarkable just yet.  What is more definite is the 2015/2016 El Nino event on track to rival the 82/83 and/or 97' Super Nino events with warm to very warm water throughout the Pacific Basin.  Experts feel this event may be closer to the 82/83 El Nino in that it's location (or focus) is much farther west in the Pacific.  What that means for us, storms form further out and have time to send cleaner swell towards the West Coast.  That's not a given, just analysis from people who know a lot more about this phenomenon that I do.  As with past events, the main impact is the Jan-Mar time period - that's when a mature El Nino peaks.  This one continues to build and shows no sign of slowing down.  So we watch and wait.  Keep an eye on the winds going into the weekend, still should be waves around to ride.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast/Sunday Night

Overlapping SSW swells in the water tonight with deepwater energy showing 4ft + at 17 seconds from 220+.   Older SSW swell is fading out.  We also have a very steep angled SSE swell (160+) mostly bypassing our stretch of coast.  NW wind swell in the mix as well - 3-5 ft at 8-9 seconds from 310+.  Former Central Pac Hurricane Jimena has pushed out a small southwest/west swell that will start to show tomorrow and Tuesday.  Probably won't notice this swell train much with the bigger sw in the water.  Winds near shore have dropped dramatically and look for mostly calm to offshore conditions the next few mornings with a sea breeze in the afternoon.  Former Central Pac Hurricane Ignacio has turned extra tropical well north of Hawaii, will curve northwest and bring us a shot of fun size northwest swell late in the week.  More on that in a couple days.  Good week ahead for surf - cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Gulf wind swell is 4-5 at 11 seconds from 315 - much bigger surf near Cape Mendo with surf 8-10 ft at 11-12 seconds.  SW swell from Pacific Hurricane Jimena 3-4 ft at 11 seconds from 200.  Northwest winds are already blowing onshore and will increase throughout the day.  Gale warnings up far north, this will increase the wind swell over the next couple days.  I don't see any real let up in the northwest winds through Labor Day right now.  New long period southwest swell will move in Friday and Saturday and feature deepwater heights in the 3-4 ft range at 19-20 seconds.  Swell will continue from Hurricane Jimena at around 3 ft 12 seconds.  Protected spots will be best - need to get out the wind.  Water temps up near Bodega have dropped back to the mid 50s.  Still warmer around SF at 60 deg.  That will change by the end of the weekend, dropping some.  Cya in the water.

SEPTEMBER!

Welcome to the 2015/2016 Season.   We had west swell this past weekend from former Typhoon Atsani and steep northwest swell from a low pressure system that brought very light rain from Sonoma north and swell that is still around this morning at 6  to 7 ft - broad range of periods from 10-14 seconds second from 315.  Until Thursday we should have Gulf of Alaska windswell hanging in at around 4-5 ft periods 10-11 seconds, as the storm track is active in the northeast Pac sending small swell our way.  In addition to that - watching for southwest/west swell from Hurricane Jimena - which is presently in the Central Pac - East of Hawaii and forecast to continue a turn to the north.  If swell develops as forecast - look for that to show Tuesday to Thursday - deepwater 2-3 ft from 12-13 seconds - 195 degrees +.    Jimena is still a Category 4 Hurricane and it's location and track that far east of the Hawaiian Islands is very typical of an El Nino season, and Hawaii recently has seen a swarm of hurricanes from all directions.  Upcoming weekend should still feature some surf from Jimena, some new southwest swell building and ongoing windswell.  Winds don't look ideal most of the week with northwest/west onshore strongest mid day on.  Best bet may be early mornings and protected spots.  Plenty of swell to ride however.  Cya in the water.

CA Buoy coming back online in October

The CA Buoy (46059) is set for deployment in October - this is great news and timing for the coming season.  This buoy has been out of service since 2012.  It's a vital buoy as it's in a great location to give us a sense timing, size of incoming swell trains.  The buoy is roughly 357 nautical miles to the northwest of SF.  No update yet on the Papa Buoy, which has also been offline for a while now and sits beyond the CA buoy at a greater distance, but equally vital to tracking swell.  Incoming swell trains for the weekend from Atsani look a touch smaller than models projected, but there will still be plenty to ride.  Very early season low pressure system churning in the Gulf is set to bring a chance of rain to far northern CA and may increase southerly winds from late Friday on - but strongest winds will probably be north of Pt Reyes.  Cya in the water.

Swell doors open....

Last week of August.  N Pac and S Pac warming up with swell due in here later this week into next week and beyond.   Former Typhoon Atsani is moving north of Japan and will transition into an extratropical storm this week while pushing out a long period WNW swell (270-290) creeping up this Wednesday and topping out next weekend Aug 30-31.  Size wise - probably waist to chest high + mid week and bigger this weekend.  Also going to have some steep angled mid period NW swell (320+) mixing in mid week and some shorter period wind swell.  The mid period swell should feature overhead sets the further north you go.  SW swell (190-220) mixes in for the upcoming weekend - good to push chest/shoulder high sets in at south facing breaks, but might be lost a bit under all the dominant northwest/west swell energy.  Winds will be lightest early - still locked in a summer pattern of onshore winds.  But overall winds have been on the lighter side so check it.  As we transition to September, looking for these early season systems hitting the Pacific Northwest to cruise into the Great Basin and start giving us some offshore winds.  Really waiting for the jet stream in the N Pac to energize with El Nino fully flexing it's muscle as we move into fall.  Cya in the water.

And so, it almost begins.....

As of Early August, most experts have officially announced a strong El Nino is in play.  The warm water we're experiencing actually has nothing to do with El Nino, rather the lack of heavy northwest winds this summer kicking off upwelling and more about the ongoing southerly flow of wind which tends to increase water temps around these parts.  Elsewhere in the Pacific, subsurface warm water along the equator - stretching west to east and north and south with some key areas El Nino experts monitor  - much warmer than usual  - (referred to as the Nino 3.4 and Nino 1.2 regions) and West Pacific Cyclone Molave forecast to recurve and turn extra tropical to bring us potentially our first longer period west/northwest swell of the season next week.  If that system tracks as forecast we can see surf week of 8-24.  The northern branch of the Pacific jet stream is more active than normal for August - not remarkable, but certainly more energetic than you would find this time of year.  What's it all mean for us?  Well, hopefully copious amounts of rain - but that's not always a sure thing with an El Nino, where the southern branch of the jet stream can get move active and bring weather into So Cal.  But recent history has proven we get plenty of rain, 1997, 82 and smaller events.  High elevation snowpack - due to warm storms, high snow levels.  Good for water supply, bad for most Tahoe ski resorts.  Plenty of swell, but could come with a lot of weather as storms form close offshore and barrel through.  Will update on Typhoon Atsani early next week.  Then look for official forecasts weekly to start up in September.  Cya in the water.

AUGUST

Pt Arena buoy has gone offline.  We've lost another window to the N Pac for the upcoming season.  Not sure if NOAA cares any longer about buoys along the West Coast.  CA buoy and SE Papa have both been offline for around two years now.  Mix of northwest windswell and back to back SSW and SSE swells on tap this week - best winds look like Wednesday and Thursday.  Maybe again on Saturday.  Both southern swell events are coming in at a very steep angle so will miss much of the region unless you know where to look.  Less than 30 days to go until September.  Cya in the water.

Dog Days....

These are the darkest times of the year to be a surfer in Nor Cal.  About a month to go before the start of the surfing fall season - so hang tight.  If you look around, you can see very early signs (quite early in fact) of the season to come.  In West Marin, local elm and maples are showing color along with the Redwoods.  Could be drought induced and the trees are saying the hell with it and going into early hibernation, or a sign of an early fall and perhaps rainy season.  Time will tell.  El Nino continues to gather momentum and all will be revealed soon enough.  In the meantime, big warm up this week and that might extend enough to the coast to give us a break from the onshore winds and fog.  High pressure moving over us from the East.  A new southwest swell will start to fill in tomorrow and run through Thursday.  Peak day is Wednesday.  Should be good for chest high with some plus sets at good south facing breaks.  Angle of approach 210-225.  Just nw windswell right now from the N Pac.  Nothing on the charts beyond.  Next few mornings should feature light winds.  Cya in the water.

JULY - Updated Forecast

Run of southwest swells looks to start up next week.  All from the that super storm that started in the Indian Ocean, moved east under Australia and charged north past New Zealand.  Around these parts surf won't be as big as pictures and videos you've know doubt seen from Indo, etc - but we can expect an extended run of swell from this storm through mid month.  Look for things to start on Monday and go through next weekend.  Right now, probably deepwater swell in the 2-3 ft range - maybe larger at times - should be good for chest high surf at south facing breaks, also larger sets at times.  We also have a pulse of short to mid period swell from a Gulf of Alaska storm that developed over the past couple days.  Look for that to be 4-5ft at 9-10 seconds moving in Sat/Sun - biggest north of SF.  Water temps have warmed nicely (55-57 deg) since the wind machine stopped off Cape Mendo.   This is due to strong high pressure in the Great Basin with a low trough over CA, advecting monsoon moisture up from Baja along with s/se winds.  That should start to change by the end of the weekend and we will get back to more of a northwest flow.  It's still summer, so check the winds which will be highly variable based on location over the next few days.  Cya in the water.

Almost July, El Nino still developing

Looks like we may be headed for a better run of southwest swells starting later this weekend and going into Mid July.  An El Nino of some magnitude is looking more and more likely for the Fall/Winter of 2015/16.  Experts are hinting that it will be somewhere between the Super Nino of 97 and the strong El Nino of 82 - which wouldn't be a bad thing.  Still another month or so to go before we're clear on the strength of this event - but growing more certain it will impact our winter and surf next season.  I will return with regular updates/forecast on September 1.  Until then will update as needed or events warrant.  Cya in the water.

JUNE

Any way you cut it - June is normally tough - we're into the gloom, wind of springtime - but there are moments now and then.  Surf early, keep expectations low.  Hurricane Andres, only the fifth major hurricane to develop in the East Pac Basin this early is now a major storm with winds at 125kt and gusts to 145kt.  Some spots in Nor Cal will see swell from him later this week.  Angle of approach is going to be pretty steep at 165 degrees plus - so some spots may miss the swell completely.  In addition to Andres, we have steep windswell and some west/northwest groundswell through the week.  Winds are going to remain onshore all week - perhaps lighter mid week and beyond, at least for the morning sessions.  Should be stuff to ride from Wednesday on.  Cya in the water.

MAY

Hope you found some place to ride over the past few days on that really decent south swell that hit.  We're back to Gale Warnings, water temps will be in the upper 40s by Friday and we've got large, short period northwest windswell churning down the coast.  Don't look for any break in the winds - south facing spots offering protection will be best.  Another long period south swell looks to roll in this coming weekend (much smaller than this past event) but should provide something to ride.  Cya in the water.

Large Off Season NW Swell HIts 46002

Long period northwest swell started showing at the West Oregon Buoy 46002 - a few hours ago - 11-13 ft with periods 19-21 seconds.  About as forecast.  This buoy is roughly 450 miles north/northwest of SF and with the CA Buoy and Papa Buoy still out of commission - remains our offshore window to incoming swell trains.  Look for energy to start showing late in the day around these parts - earlier further north.  Swell will be in full force tomorrow with double overhead sets and larger at north facing breaks.  Winds look favorable - null to east around the Bay - still some northerly wind as you go up the Coast.  Might be a sea breeze late today and tomorrow before things turn more onshore for the weekend as energy in the Gulf goes up and over the ridge into the Pac NW.  Swell will stick around until Sunday - dropping in size and period each day.   Check the winds - am sessions will probably be the cleanest.  cya in the water.

APRIL

January to March this year was the driest period on record in the Bay Area.  April, it would appear is looking rather normal.  Water temps are hovering around 51-52 due to all the northwest winds for the past week and a fairly dynamic pattern is underway with storms brushing through to the north creating the wind and good size windswell.  Hope you got some of that rather decent southwest swell from former Super Cyclone Pam - which created a most impressive swell display across the Pacific.  Swell will remain elevated through the rest of this week with a mix of west groundswell and northerly windswell.  Winds will shred things the entire week from the northwest and probably drop water temps even lower by weeks end.  Ab season starts today.  Sport salmon season starts this Saturday.  Decent chance of rain by next Sunday into the following week.  Cya in the water.