Weekend Forecast

Fun size wnw swell tomorrow - waist to head high - with slightly overhead waves at best north facing breaks.  Wind should be pretty decent most of the day - then start to pick up tomorrow night.  New swell will build in late and plus on Sunday with deepwater in the 4-7ft range.  Keep an eye on winds Sunday, may turn south as an approaching cold front comes in late Sunday.  Chance of rain Monday night into Tuesday - then high pressure builds back in which should lead to nice conditions.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

New long period northwest swell showing far northern buoys - 8-9 ft 20 seconds.  Swell will top out Tuesday and Wednesday with well overhead to double overhead waves likely at north facing breaks.  Looks like we'll have offshore/light ne winds the next two mornings for sure - with light afternoon winds.  Surf to fade just a bit Thursday and Friday - but still feature overhead surf at west/north facing breaks.  Global weather models hinting at a major pattern change next week with the storm door opening.  A bit too far out right now to give much weight to the forecast - but something to monitor.  Next two mornings should be good for those who like the big stuff.  Cya in the water.

Next Three Mornings...

Light Am winds the next three days - with very cold temps early Wednesday morning in the North Bay with low to mid 30s.  Overlapping small northwest swells will keep surf in the fun size.  Winds come up again late week - as will the swell - as another cold front pushing to our north.  No rain in forecast for SF and parts north.  Not digging the high pressure ridge establishing itself - doesn't bode well for early season rains and sand bar development at spots that like weather.  We'll see what unfolds.  Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Fun size mix of southwest and northwest swells on tap.  Head high sets at top spots.  Winds will be lightest in the mornings - may see a bit more afternoon sea breeze each day.   Cya in the water.

Larger Long Period Swell Early Next Week....

Small surf prevails - with fog back at the coast.  Things should remain on the small side until late Sunday night when early forerunners of the swell from former Typhoon Wipha start to show - deepwater 4-6ft at 20-23 seconds.  By mid day Monday, look for 6-8 ft at 18-20 seconds and during the peak of this event we might see larger sets in the 10-15ft range.  Swell angle 309 deg. A few things about this forecast.  First, this storm developed quite far from Northern CA.  Second, the main life cycle of this storm has been in the very far northern latitudes of the N Pac - not ideal for swell angle into N Cal.  So expect long lulls, but when the energy does come - especially during the peak of the event and peak tides - expect things to pack a good punch.  Wind forecast not ideal for early next week - NOAA still saying nw winds each day over the coastal waters - but they are forecast to stay light - so morning will probably be the best windows.  Cya in the water.

Week Ahead

Should be offshore most of the week - especially for am sessions.  No big surf - just fun size back to back pulses of northwest swell and windswell.  A bit bigger Wednesday/Thursday.  Next large swell event looks likely for next week - as an old typhoon is going to go extratropical off Japan, get caught in the westerlies and head our way with swell.  More on that later in the week.  Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Small mix of northwest windswell and southwest groundswell for the weekend.  Waist to shoulder high- maybe some bigger sets during favorable tides.  Winds look lightest for the AM sessions - stronger afternoon flow.  Fog and low clouds hanging around.  Not too much interesting on the long term right now - waiting on the North Pac to really get busy and shift the season into high gear.  Cya in the water.

Conditions to improve later in week

Windswell is 12ft at 10-11 sec from 310 plus.  Winds are actually lighter than forecast nearshore, but still blowing strong over the outer waters.  Storm system has dropped down south out of BC, right now going down the spine of the sierra dropping some early season snow.  No rain forecast for us, just cooler temps and breezy.  Things should improve more Thursday and Friday - swell will drop through the period and we should have light AM winds, but probably stronger afternoon onshores.  No pure offshore period forecast, in fact the extended into next week shows more of an onshore component to our weather.  Should be waves to ride, just check the winds.  Cya in the water.

Updated Weekend Forecast

Water temps are dropping with the strong northwest winds - Bodega Buoy showing 48 F.  No real data available closer in since the NOAA SF Buoy isn't reporting temp and the Half Moon Bay Buoy is now offline too.   With more and more buoys failing or offline it will become harder in the near future to get a good sense of what is going on in the outer waters and it's most dangerous for fisherman and commercial marine transport.  In the meantime, we work with what we have.  The rest of the week will feature northwest windswell/mid period groundswell in the 3-6ft range.  Conditions should clean up late tonight as the winds veer from northwest to northeast and offshore.  So the next few mornings "should" feature cleaner conditions with cold water temps.  No significant swell on the charts yet - but models are hinting at perhaps another good shot late next week.  Cya in the water.

14 ft @17

Macking northwest swell started to fire late yesterday and will peak today.  Steep angle of approach - 320 - size is solid.  Swell will gradually wind down thru Wednesday.  Smaller surf on tap for the rest of the week beyond that and into the weekend.  Storm system is passing through today and we will see a few days of northwest winds (especially outer waters) and perhaps turning more offshore late in the week.  Plenty to ride if you know where to look - check the winds.  cya in the water.

Conditions to improve towards the weekend

Active storm track just to our north is creating very strong northwest winds that may flirt with moments of offshore over the next 24-36 hours (unlikely at the coast however).  Swell remains good size at 6-10 ft deepwater (larger farther north).  Looking for lighter morning winds from Friday to Sunday and size will drop down into a fun zone 3-5 ft deepwater Friday, a tad smaller Saturday, then rapid increase in surf height on Sunday (late) when a new swell runs in pushing heights back up to 6-10ft deepwater for Monday.  Fall is here, the North Pacific is active and we will continue to see plenty of surf for the next seven days.  Slight chance of rain again for the North Bay late Sunday, into Monday.  Swell angles remain pretty steep for most of these events - 300-325, as the energy is gaining the most traction in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska.  Cya in the water.

Boom

.MARINE...AS OF 2:00 PM PDT MONDAY...THE FIRST NOTABLE SWELL OF
 THE OF THE FALL SEASON WILL BUILD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
 THANKS TO A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODEL
 GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LOCAL SWAN MODEL...CONTINUES TO INDICATE
 BUILDING SWELL NEAR 300 DEG AT OR ABOVE 10 FEET BY THIS EVENING
 AND INTO TONIGHT. A MODERATE PERIOD OF 14-15 SECONDS WILL ALSO
 ACCOMPANY THE BUILDING SWELL. THE HIGHER SWELL WILL LIKELY LAST
 THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY.

First Big Shot of the Fall - More Next Week

First storm of the Fall season is generating a swell train that will build late Friday and then peak saturday with 8-12ft deepwater forecast.  First potential rain of the season is also coming in with it - late Friday into Saturday - but might be a North Bay only event with only scattered showers from SF south.  Solid swell left on Sunday and fading some into Monday.  Next bigger shot comes in Tuesday - also 8-12ft deepwater - perhaps bigger.  Winds are going to be an issue the next five or so days.  With the front on Friday/Saturday - probably see south winds come up with the advance of the storm.  Then behind, cool northwest flow is forecast with strong winds through the week as the jetstream gets quite active just to our north all next week.  Fall is here for sure - storms are working through the Gulf of Alaska - so plenty to ride - just keep an eye/check the winds.  I won't be updating this report until Sept 25 as i will be out for a few days.  Cya in the water.

Things to get active

New northwest swell peaking tomorrow - right now 4-5 ft at 12 sec from 300-310.  Winds are blowing fairly strong from the north/northwest.  Next few days should feature north winds and less fog, and even though winds wont be offshore, could see some warmer/sunny days at the coast.  By the end of the week - our first storm system of the Fall will come through with a chance or rain Friday into Saturday morning.  This storm will also kick up a good size northwest swell - the first and biggest of the season so far - with forecast heights 6-10 ft deepwater for Saturday and Sunday.  Swell looks to stick around with some reinforcing shots of northwest swell through early next week.  So, plenty to ride coming up - just keep an eye on the winds as we don't have any real "clean" wind days ahead - but might find some good windows.  Cya in the water.

Not very September like....

Northwest winds howling for the past 3 days now.  We still have small amount of northwest swell left from the event two days ago - but fading fast.  Southwest swell has taken over as primary source of waves - deepwater 1.8 to 2 ft at 17 from 185 or so.  Winds are suppose to ease overnight as the pressure gradient begins to relax, but don't expect pristine conditions for Sunday.  Next NW swell looks to get in here mid week - could be on par with this past event, perhaps a bit bigger.  More on that in a few days. Until then, slim pickens.  Check the winds, maybe you'll find someplace to surf.  Cya in the water.

First decent northwest swell at northern buoys....

Deepwater swell starting to show far northern buoys - 3-5 ft at 18-20 seconds.  Swell will start to show here late today and start peaking during the day on Thursday.  Should see 4-6 ft deepwater with 17-20 second periods.  Nothing huge, but compared to what we've had it's going to feel bigger.  Winds remain onshore with fog and low clouds, but should stay on the light side.  Check the winds for sure.  Swell will stick around thru Friday, fading out Saturday.  Cya in the water.

Nice shot of northwest swell due in next Thurs/Friday

Fall is here.  Good weekend behind us and a nice pulse of northwest swell to look forward to for Thursday and Friday.  Low pressure system is tracking in the Gulf (remains of former TS Toraji) which will send in a good hit of northwest swell (290-305) starting late Wednesday, peaking Thursday and hanging around thru Friday.  Top winter breaks go 1-2 ft overhead during the peak of the swell on Thursday.  Winds look lightest thru the mornings this week - with a stronger seabreeze for each afternoon.  For sure check the winds during the week as the forecast is higly variable.  We have no outer buoys working (Papa and CA have both been offline for a while now) and no date for re-deployment, courtesy of NOAA and their budget cuts.  It will make forecasting incoming swell trains much more difficult this season.  Best to look at the far northern buoys and the Pt Reyes buoy to get a handle on size as swells get close.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast - Offshores for the weekend?

Back to some marginal conditions again at least for today.  NW wind is on it and blowing hard at the outer waters.  That should take a few degrees off the water temp for the weekend.  Windswell will also increase tonight and tomorrow and a new mid period northwest swell will come in Friday and last into Sunday.  Right now looks like surf will be in the 4-6 ft range on Friday (deepwater) and 3-5ft on Saturday into Sunday. High pressure is building into the Great Basin, while thermal low pressure is going to build on the coast.  What this should do is drive temps up, the flow should switch from onshore to offshore and we will see warmer temps at the coast.  That's the forecast, we'll see if the wind direction and warm temps make it to the coast.  I'm still a bit skeptical given the strong nw winds that are forecast to blow over the outer waters most of the weekend.  For sure winds will be lightest in the mornings Friday to Sunday - so check it.  Cya in the water.

A fine day, updated forecast

Looks like September today - winds not really a factor all day - and certainly didn't end up as forecast.  Look for locally light winds the next two mornings - PM winds will be stronger, but not much.  We had a nice pulse of northwest windswell today - deep water 3-4 ft at 10-12 seconds from around 300.  Swell will stick around tomorrow and then begin to fade.  Weather models are now hinting at perhaps some offshore flow later in the week as a low drags into the Great Basin.  This should coincide with more windswell and then a larger pulse of Gulf swell - more on both of those events Wednesday.  Cya in the water.

Welcome to the 2013-2014 Surf Season

September 1st.  We made it through another summer.  Small pulse of northwest windswell from 285-310 continues today with waist/shoulder high waves at better breaks.  Small southwest continues too.  Winds are mostly onshore as fog continues to hug the coast.  In the Gulf of Alaska - stationary low pressure circulation will drive another similar size northwest pulse in here Monday into Tuesday.  Winds look to remain problematic - lightest in the mornings.  In the long range (next weekend) we might see our first real shot of northwest swell (overhead sets) as a low pressure system just coming out of the Bering Sea will drop into the Gulf of Alaska early in the week, develop winds over the sea surface and bring us swell.  I'll have an update on that Wednesday, as well as a look ahead at coastal winds to see how conditions will be.  Cya in the water.