Weekend Forecast

**Great news SE Papa Buoy and CA Buoys are back online for the winter. Just in time! Look for s/sw swell to continue through the weekend - probably in the shoulder high range at most breaks - perhaps bigger sets now and then. NW windswell will be on the rise tomorrow - as NW winds increase offshore. Looking for this windswell to peak Saturday with head high, bigger at times - but conditions will likely be a mess at nw facing breaks Sat/Sun due to the wind. Low pressure is moving down from the Gulf of Alaska - and with it winds and fog will increase. This system will be out of here by early next week - and we might see a warm up next Tuesday - but right now it doesn't look like an offshore/hot event like this past event. Definitely seeing an early Autumn pattern starting to take shape - which is a good sign. No swell producing storms yet - but September is getting closer so should see things change even more in the upper latitudes as we move into the month. Check the winds this weekend - pick your surf breaks accordingly. ***FRIDAY - UPDATE - Storm inbound Saturday - NW winds have already approached gale force speeds in our outer waters. Chance of rain late Saturday - super light amounts. cya in the water.

Good weather fades, Significant South hits

Hope you got out in the past 2 days - it was sick. Significant south swell just starting to show this morning - deep water already 3ft plus at 190-200 - look for this swell to build during the day - probably peaking tomorrow with deepwater heights in the 5ft range - large for around these parts! Unfortunately - southern surge of fog and winds is presently moving north from Monterey. Offshore flow is gone for now. Look for onshore winds and fog to return over the next few days. By the weekend - a very early season gulf low will drop down out of BC - lowering inland temps by 30 degrees over the past couple of days - and bringing with it a very slight chance of drizzle/rain. So winds will probably stay west/northwest from Thursday on. But get to places that like big souths and have some protection from the winds and you might just score. Cya in the water.

It's ON!

Sunny at the beaches this afternoon with light winds - when was the last time anyone saw that?? South swell peaking today - some nice size in the water - still running 3ft at 17 (deepwater swell). Will wind down tomorrow. Bigger south hits Tues-Thurs - with sets head high + at breaks with a s/sw exposure. Next two days look like sick beach days - with the warmest Tuesday - with EAST WINDS forecast. Hot inland, warm to the coast - yes there is a God and he likes Nor Cal surfers in the Fall. Do enjoy this upcoming couple days as we're going to cool off again late in the week with a return to fog and onshore winds. We might still be lucky on Wednesday. cya in the water.

Update - Offshore Winds Mon/Tues

Winds are howling tonight. Blowing northwest - turning northerly during the day on Sunday. Early season storm moved through the Pac NW and is now moving into the northern Great Basin. This will shift the winds offshore for Monday/Tuesday with much warmer temps. In fact probably the warmest it's been since Mid June. Still hard to say if this wind event will make it all the way to the coast - and give us our first offshore of the early Fall. For sure the fog will be scoured out - have to wait and see. South swell is peaking tonight/Sunday - 3-4 ft at 17 sec (deepwater). Mix of north windswell in the water tomorrow too - 3-5 at 8-10 secs. It could be a total mess at OB in the morning with the winds. If the gradient relaxes overnight - it might be marginally clean early - but the smart money is on a big mess. The sun might be out - so you can't have it all - at least not yet......Pattern will go back to fog and gloom after Wednesday - so dont get too excited. This is just a teaser of hopefully better weather to come as we move into September. Sept 1 is normally the official start to the Fall surf season in Nor Cal. Not tracking any gulf storms yet. Just more south swell and windswell most of next week. Check the winds, surf early. cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Surf early. I sound like a broken record but onshore winds the rule this weekend with fog and cool temps at the coast. South swell through Sunday with some decent size at times. That nw windswell event didn't materialize as forecast for size but there will be some windswell in the water. Could see some offshore flow next Monday and Tuesday! More on that event Sunday. Cya in th water.

Week Ahead

More images from Mexico. Rest assured it wont be like that around here anytime soon. High pressure remains in control in the Pacific Basin. Expect fog all week with onshore winds - lightest (if you can call it that) in the mornings. There is a chance this high pressure blocker will move further West - which might enable some storms to rise up and over the ridge and get into the Great Basin. This is the first time the models have hinted at this set up - which is usually the rumblings of an early Autumn pattern change. I wouldn't count on it just yet - wait to see how things pan out for the rest of the week.

Swell wise - next south/southwest due in here Friday to Monday. Forecasted deep water heights in the 2-4 ft range at 195-200. NW windswell will be on the rise late in the week too - with forecasted heights going into the 10-11 ft range at 9 secs from 324. if that comes to pass it will knock the piss out of the south swell as it moves north. Could see a better run of south swell starting Aug 24 - Aug 28 - more on that event later in the week. Between now and the weekend - small, gutless surf prevails.
cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Small storm earlier this week tracked underneath the Aleutian Chain with 25kt winds. We'll see a tiny increase in surf from that storm Fri-Sun - but really it will just reinforce the existing windswell that will be in the water. Looking for 4-5ft at 9 from 320 at the offshore buoys - so considerably smaller near shore. Weather models have been hinting all week at a pattern shift in the upper atmosphere to give us warmer temps and relief from the steady fog and onshore winds. If that comes to pass - we might see the beginning of this on Sunday - lasting into next week. Much warmer temps inland, however it's not an offshore wind event - so we might only see the marine layer compress near the coast and burn off earlier in the day. **IF this happens at all! Patterns such as the one we've been in are very persistent and take a lot of energy to break down. Not sure i'm buying it - but we'll see. What we might see are much lighter winds in the mornings over the weekend. I still suspect some onshore/south wind on Saturday, perhaps light/variable Sunday morning. It's a very unpredictable set up at the moment. Nothing in the Tropics worth noting - could see some added storm development in the North Pacific mid to late next week - and a decent looking (on the models) south swell Aug 20 thru Aug 24. Check the winds, surf early. cya in the water.

Some faint signs.....

Mind surf this one! From my friends south of the border. How sweet does that look? Should last me until October. Far cry from the 1ft mush I drove 2 hours for yesterday.

Just a tease of a Fall pattern trying to get a toe hold in the upper reaches of the North Pacific. One storm dropping down out of BC today, which on a different trajectory could make it to the Great Basin and give us offshore flow - however, it's dropping straight down the West Coast and will form a cut off low - further enhancing this sweet weather we're having for the week ahead. By the weekends, models hint at a bit of a warm up - but we'll see. I don't buy it. By Friday, a Gulf low is forecast to track south of the Aleutians and push towards the West Coast. Because of the approach, no swell forecast for us from this system - but it's a good sign if it comes to pass. Want to see more of that as we move through the month. Tropical Storm Estelle is way south of Baja - but unlikely to strengthen or move into our swell window for anything to result.

Swell wise - it's shite this week. Not much south swell and minimal windswell. Winds look to stay as they've been - onshore, messy, ugly. You might get lucky somewhere for morning sessions if the winds are down. Otherwise, it's just desperation surfing.
Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

South swell filling in late today/tonight - right now 1.7 at 17 from 180+. Winds are light - but still onshore. Blowing 5kt from the south at OB - light northwest winds towards Bodega Bay. South swell will probably peak at 3ft deepwater - Sat/Sun. Morning winds will stay light onshore (sound like a broken record at this point). SW/W winds - you guys all know the usual deal with fog at the coast. Current weather pattern looks to stay locked in for the next 7-10 days. Hopefully by December we'll get some offshore/sunny days at the beach. ha. Nothing going on in the Gulf of Alaska - and after this south swell - things looks pretty marginal through mid August - as in no rideable real surf. Get what you can and don't be too picky. cya in the water.

The Summer That Wasn't

Cool, foggy conditions look the norm for the next 7-10 days. August could potentially be the 5th month in a row with below average temps for the entire region. Blocking high pressure - one to our north - and another out in the West Pacific is keeping the overall long wave pattern overhead stagnant. This is why we have fog each day with not much change. Low pressure stays parked to our southwest. This pattern is also keeping the northern branch of the jetstream fragmented. Until the jet consolidates with some decent wind energy we won't see much of a shift - in our weather - or early Fall storm development. Keeping an eye on it however. For this week - same old story - background southern hemi swells and nw windswell. Fog every morning (and lasting all day at many coast locations). Winds may be lightest in the mornings - but that's not saying much. Onshore winds the rule.

Weekend Forecast

The good news about this weekend is August is upon us. One more month to go. Hopefully we'll see some change mid to late month in the jetstream pattern. As for the now - winds are blowing strong N to NW at the offshore buoys, but lighter winds still prevail nearshore with the persistent fog deck. Small south/southwest swells to continue through the weekend (probably waist to maybe chest high) and the windswell will creep up given the pressure gradient to our north interacting with surface low pressure to our south and inland. Best call is to surf early when winds are the lightest. No big changes really in the week ahead pattern wise. Just watching, waiting, hoping for more signals of change. cya in the water.

Week ahead

Small windswell and small background southern hemi swell all week - nothing to get that excited about. Only good thing is that winds will continue to be light each morning. You poor bastards that live near the ocean - you'll probably not see the sun again until September.....cya in the water.

Oh so subtle signs of change....

Caught a glimpse of some local maples with just a hint of early color on their leaves tonight on the way home. Brought a smile to my face. In the North Bay valley where i live, Fall normally comes early and winter tends to linger a bit longer. Tonight it's cold, foggy and windy - and it's been that way along the coast all day. The sw/w winds making a mess of our nice South swell pulsing in. Swell is still 3.4 at 17 from 190 - but winds are dead on any south facing break. Look for high pressure to remain parked out in the East Pac while the normal summer thermal low persists over our interior. What will happen later this week is the low will retrograde some, while a bit of energy cut off from the main jet hovers around CA. Much lighter winds forecast for Friday/Saturday/Sunday - near the coast with variable to se flow. Look for the south swell to hang around most of the week - getting progressively smaller towards the weekend along with small NW windswell created by stronger north winds way up near the Oregon/California border. So hang in there my surfing friends. We're getting closer to August - and normally by mid to late August we start to see some stronger signs of seasonal change. Right now the northern jetstream is in hibernation with colder than normal waters now in many key areas of the Pacific Basin. La Nina is trying to assert her return this Fall. It will be interesting to see if that develops. Before last season, we had three years of La Nina - less rain, more cold, less big swells, but we did have some wonderful runs of winter surf with offshore winds for days at times. So while sometimes La Nina is a blessing for us surfers - it's not good for the State's water supply or snowpack. Time will tell. In the meantime - start to look around in August and notice the changes. As surfers, we're naturally more in tune with our surroundings and it's cool to be in touch with that which so many ignore or dont even realize exist. cya in the water.

South Swell Update

No sign of the new inbound south in our waters yet, however i am seeing a few strokes of energy in far So Cal - in the 3-4 ft at 20 second range. Look for the swell to slowly build overnight - and show in force later Tuesday through Thursday. Best estimates for us will be deepwater swell in the 3-5 ft range at 18-20 seconds. Winds are bad right now - blowing hard NW off shore (outer waters), but S/SW near shore - those NW winds could certainly knock some of the size down as the swell comes up the Coast. We'll have to see. Winds are forecast to get a bit lighter mid week in our outer waters and that will help. We have some big windswell in the water too - in the 8-9 ft range at 8-9 sec - making a mess of everything. The SW winds aren't helping either. Keep an eye on the winds and find your favorite south facing spots mid week. cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast - Good Size South starting Monday

Weekend looks like we'll have increasing nw winds/onshore winds (not great) and windswell coming up with it. Southern hemi stays in the background all weekend. The real deal starts probably late Monday when the 20 sec southern hemi starts to show. This swell is coming from around 195-200 degrees and we could see sets in the overhead range Monday/Tuesday - much bigger the further south you go. That swell will linger most of next week with periods dropping but decent size to stick around through at least Thursday. Keep an eye on the winds over the weekend - we might get lucky for the morning sessions - but i think the afternoons will be pretty blown out. cya in the water.

NW peaking/fun SW

7.5 at 12 from 305 and fun sw 2.4 at 17 from 200. Fun combo swell in the water tonight. Look for the nw to slowly fade thru the day on Wednesday - with the sw swell hanging around thru the week. Still tracking a good strong s/sw well for July 19-23.
Winds were pretty light today - especially in the am with stronger onshore breezes in the afternoon. Look for that trend to continue all week - light/variable in AM - stronger seabreeze in the afternoon. cya in the water.

Off season NW due, plus SW looks to line up for rest of July

Off season NW swell is due in late Monday night - thru Wednesday. This swell will be strongest Tuesday afternoon thru Wednesday morning. Energy from 285-300 degrees - probably going several feet overhead on the sets at stand out NW facing breaks like Ocean Beach. Beyond that - tracking a number of back to back SW swells for July 17 thru July 23. The last pulse in that series - (from the 20th to 23rd) has the potential to send in some decent size swell. I'll continue to track and update the status of these swells by middle of next week. Winds have been pretty light the last few mornings - with mainly light south to southeast flow. Look for that trend to continue thru next week with light winds from the S/SW/W in the mornings - followed by stronger onshores each afternoon. No huge NW wind blow forecast - and water temps have warmed a bit back into the 53-55 range. Looking long term into early Fall - we are falling back into a La Nina set up - El Nino is gone and cooler than normal water temps are being reported around the equator and other regions of the Pacific. This could have an impact on storm development as we start to move into Fall. We'll have to see what happens. cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Typical mid (almost) July weather - foggy at the coast, warmer inland. Not much swell this weekend - fading mix of SW and windswell. If we're lucky, perhaps light enough winds near shore to make a paddle out. Nothing epic on the charts - but we are moving closer to Fall with each day - so that's something to be happy for! cya in the water.

Caught this at Endless Bummer blog...

The Surf Magazines Don't Talk About Lapsed Catholics from Todd Stewart on Vimeo.

Thanks to the Endless Bummer guys in NY that posted this. Such a great piece.

South sticks around today, fades tomorrow

Back from Cabo last night - huge swell down there Sunday into Monday. 15-18 ft faces easily on the sets at it's peak. I saw some impressive buoy readings up here last night of 5ft at 17 from 180 - pretty respectable for a south swell in our part of the world. This am it's down to 3.5 at 17 - but look for that to fluctuate during the day. We also have a shot of mid period (11 sec) windswell mixing in - 7.9 ft from 330 - super steep nw angle - but will cross up at the beachbreaks that face both exposures. Enjoy it while it all lasts because the forecast for the remainder of this week stinks- with dropping windswell and fading south - combined with continued fog, onshore winds. July in Nor Cal. cya in the water.