JUNE

Any way you cut it - June is normally tough - we're into the gloom, wind of springtime - but there are moments now and then.  Surf early, keep expectations low.  Hurricane Andres, only the fifth major hurricane to develop in the East Pac Basin this early is now a major storm with winds at 125kt and gusts to 145kt.  Some spots in Nor Cal will see swell from him later this week.  Angle of approach is going to be pretty steep at 165 degrees plus - so some spots may miss the swell completely.  In addition to Andres, we have steep windswell and some west/northwest groundswell through the week.  Winds are going to remain onshore all week - perhaps lighter mid week and beyond, at least for the morning sessions.  Should be stuff to ride from Wednesday on.  Cya in the water.

MAY

Hope you found some place to ride over the past few days on that really decent south swell that hit.  We're back to Gale Warnings, water temps will be in the upper 40s by Friday and we've got large, short period northwest windswell churning down the coast.  Don't look for any break in the winds - south facing spots offering protection will be best.  Another long period south swell looks to roll in this coming weekend (much smaller than this past event) but should provide something to ride.  Cya in the water.

Large Off Season NW Swell HIts 46002

Long period northwest swell started showing at the West Oregon Buoy 46002 - a few hours ago - 11-13 ft with periods 19-21 seconds.  About as forecast.  This buoy is roughly 450 miles north/northwest of SF and with the CA Buoy and Papa Buoy still out of commission - remains our offshore window to incoming swell trains.  Look for energy to start showing late in the day around these parts - earlier further north.  Swell will be in full force tomorrow with double overhead sets and larger at north facing breaks.  Winds look favorable - null to east around the Bay - still some northerly wind as you go up the Coast.  Might be a sea breeze late today and tomorrow before things turn more onshore for the weekend as energy in the Gulf goes up and over the ridge into the Pac NW.  Swell will stick around until Sunday - dropping in size and period each day.   Check the winds - am sessions will probably be the cleanest.  cya in the water.

APRIL

January to March this year was the driest period on record in the Bay Area.  April, it would appear is looking rather normal.  Water temps are hovering around 51-52 due to all the northwest winds for the past week and a fairly dynamic pattern is underway with storms brushing through to the north creating the wind and good size windswell.  Hope you got some of that rather decent southwest swell from former Super Cyclone Pam - which created a most impressive swell display across the Pacific.  Swell will remain elevated through the rest of this week with a mix of west groundswell and northerly windswell.  Winds will shred things the entire week from the northwest and probably drop water temps even lower by weeks end.  Ab season starts today.  Sport salmon season starts this Saturday.  Decent chance of rain by next Sunday into the following week.  Cya in the water.

Spring Happens

First day of Spring is Friday and right on cue it looks a lot like Spring around these parts.  Weatherman Bill Martin called it the other night by saying - "all you have to do is take a look at the North Pacific satellite feed, jet stream is pushing up into Alaska…"  so it goes.  El Nino has been declared (only by 0.5 degree of warmer than usual water temps).  California is in the 4th year of one of the worst droughts  on record and the surf for you and me looks average for the rest of the week with a combination of northwest windswell along with some west/northwest swell.  There will be some decent size tomorrow and into the weekend - issue will be northwest winds.   In fact water temps tumbled 3 degrees in 24hours last night at our northern buoys to 53.  Still holding steady at SF around 55 degrees.  I'd look towards next Sunday and Monday for the most size - but find a place protected from the winds.  Very small chances of rain far north this Friday and Saturday and then again early next week.  Be mindful of your water use this Spring and Summer - it's going to be a long off season.  Cya in the water.

MARCH

March 1st is traditionally the end of the winter surf season on the North Coast.  Colder water, northwest winds all mark the change of seasons.   We do have an early season south swell rolling in early next week so keep an eye on that.  Conditions in the South Pacific do indicate a better than average south swell season so let's hope that materializes.  Until then, windswell will be the primary source of swell for the time ahead, although i don't think the North Pac is ready to shut down completely just yet.  Will update as needed.  Cya in the water.

March looms…..

Fairly small surf prevails with an increase expected this weekend as another small West swell moves in along with potentially offshore winds near the Coast, but stronger northwest winds over the outer waters - a sign that Spring isn't too far away.  Forecast remains dry through the end of Feb so on and off good windows of surf should be found in between these north/northwest wind events being created by high pressure just offshore and to our north with systems moving up and over the ridge into the Great Basin.  Fun size surf should prevail through most of next week.  Cya in the water.

STORM DOOR OPENS

Major rain event unfolding offshore and will steam in here overnight bringing copious amounts of rain to Central/Northern California.  Gale warnings are up and south winds are already howling over the outer waters whipping up a big southwest swell (21ft) at Cape Mendo Buoy.  Going to be a mess for the next 2-4 days with up to 10-12 inches of rain when it's all over by Monday on the Sonoma Coast with lesser amounts further south but still plenty of rain to go around.  Unless you like big south winds and large storm swell - might not be an ideal weekend for surfing.  However, if you know the Coast - there are a few spots that actually might not be too shabby over the next few days.  Enjoy the rain.  Cya in the water.

FEBRUARY

It hasn't rained in Northern California since December 24.  SF set the record for the driest January since the City has been keep records - over 165 years.  Ridge of high pressure has brought us superb surfing conditions over the past month.  It does look like the ridge is finally going to yield towards the end of this week and bring badly needed rain to California.  Especially from SF north.  Until then, look for mid size surf - shoulder to head high Monday - new West swell comes in Tues/Wed pushing deepwater heights back up in the 6-8ft range both days - good for well overhead surf at top winter breaks.  Thursday swell will drop some and then come up again on Friday (probably with strong south winds) as the storm door opens and a few systems come ashore.  Conditions look potentially quite stormy by next Monday/Tuesday Feb 8-9.  Next update wk of Feb 9th.  Cya in the water.

JANUARY

Strong high pressure, as we've had the past few drought years in January, has locked the N Pac down since just before Christmas.   Not much swell and no rain but conditions have been clean with offshore winds many days. Pattern looks to break down by the end of this week with the storm door opening.  Until then some good days ahead with light AM winds.  A new powerful swell will charge in on Thursday pushing deepwater heights into the 6-10 ft range with offshore winds.  This looks to be the beginning of a solid run of larger swells through the back half of January.  Deep low pressure in the N Pac looks to replace high pressure and start pumping out storms and swell.  Happy New Year and cya in the water.

Extremely Large Swell for the Weekend

NWS is forecasting deepwater swell 18-20 ft, possibly 25ft far north, for late Friday into Saturday.  Powerful storm in the central Pacific with hurricane force winds directed at Nor Cal, and storm movement in our general direction - all adds up to massive size surf.  Most places won't handle that size in any sort of manner.  Even south facing spots will be fairly large.  One more rain event on Friday and then we dry out for the weekend and perhaps a few days into next week and beyond.  Could be back to a wet pattern after Christmas.  Swell stays elevated the next two days and then goes huge late Friday.  Cya in the water.

Mid December - solid swell continues

El Nino continúes to flex the muscle and bring us drought busting storms.  Next rain event due in here tomorrow night through Monday.  Then a break, then another storm Tues/Wed and possibly a third storm late next week.  It's good.  Long term models hinting at high pressure Christmas week which would be a nice break.  Will see if that comes to pass.  Look for surf to stay in the double overhead range at spots like Ocean Beach through all of next week.  Biggest day looks to be next Monday and Tuesday with deep water heights 10-15ft on Monday - 12-15 ft on Tuesday.  Mostly West/Northwest swell from 270-300 degrees.  Winds will be south to southeast as fronts approach, perhaps turning east to northeast (or light and variable) as fronts pass.  So know your spots and you'll have plenty to ride.  Water temps continue to hover high 50s to 60 degrees - highly unusual for December - but typical of El Nino.  That's also contributing to storms gaining strength just before they come ashore.  Warmer water equals more energy and higher rain rates.  Cya in the water.

December

Drought busting storms continue the assault on CA - no end in sight for the week ahead with perhaps the strongest storm of the season so far - due in here Wednesday to Friday with heavy rain, winds forecast in the 50kt range and gigantic storm surf by week's end - deepwater heights pushing 20 feet by Friday.  Fairly large surf all week, just check the winds.  For you regular followers of Wasabi you'll notice my reports have been less frequent this season.  Work and life is very busy for me so I've been focused on a lot of things.  I will try and update when I can.  In the meantime - the links all work and that's always been the best part of this blog I think as it is.  I'm updating and changing them from time to time as i find more sites with information useful for those of us that surf this part of the CA Coast.  Cya in the water.

Wasabi Update

Large northwest swell due to run at the Coast later today through tomorrow - pushing deep water heights back up to the 8-10 ft range.  Winds will switch to northwest behind the front later today.  First way up north, then down through the Bay Area.  Surf will stay elevated through next Wednesday - with the potential for very good conditions starting tomorrow with offshore winds each morning and surf staying in that 8-10 ft range.  HIgh pressure building into the Great Basin late tonight.  Next chance of rain looks like late next weekend.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Long period northwest swell began filling in late last night - Pt Reyes showing 4.9 ft at 17 from 300+.  This was generated by former Typhoon Nuri - now affecting the Central US with snow, high winds and frigid Arctic temps (1 degree in Denver this am).  This super storm, which recorded the lowest barometric pressure ever in the Bering Sea has been on quite a journey for the past week.  Remnants of Nuri will actually bring us rain tonight and tomorrow as part of that storm reformed in the Gulf of Alaska.  Winds are very light northwest right now but will turn southerly later today in front of this system.  Look for the Nuri swell to fade some on Thursday and then a new Gulf swell fills in Friday with deep water heights 7ft at 14 sec from 285.  That swell will drop some on Saturday, then head back up again on Sunday.  So plenty of swell for the next five days.  Winds will be a combination of light northwest to south/southwest before and after front passages.  Might have another shot of rain late in the weekend and then a major wet pattern change forecast for next week with soaking rains for all of CA.  Check the winds, know your spots.  It's Fall in Nor Cal.  Plenty to ride.  Cya in the water.

November

Large northwest swell peaking today - 10-12ft at 14-16 seconds from 290 +.  Winds are shredding things as the latest storm to bring rain to Central and Northern California has moved off to the east.  Look for high pressure to be in control thru most of next week - chance of rain far north by next weekend.  Seas will stay elevated thru Wednesday - 6-8 ft 11-12 seconds from late Sunday on.  Winds forecast to be north to northwest - much lighter by Tuesday and Wednesday with a chance of light to offshore flow both those mornings.  Check the winds - plenty of swell.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Large long period northwesterly swell is filling in this afternoon - right now 10-12 ft deepwater - at 17 sec from 285.  Swell will peak overnight and remain large tomorrow.  Winds are light right now but picking up from the northwest as the weak front that gave us some additional rain has pushed through.  Look for a break in the weather the next few days and then a renewed chance of rain about Thursday lasting until Saturday.  Better chance of rain in the North Bay.  Swell to stay elevated most of the week ahead as the North Pacific remains very active pumping out weather and swell for the remainder of the period.  Winds are going to be highly variable - s to sw when fronts come ashore, changing to west or northwest with each passage.  Very active October - so stay tuned.  Cya in the water.

Some rain, more swell

A series of Pacific Weather Systems set to impact our Coast starting today - south to southwest winds will be up - with another solid west/northwest swell lining up for Wednesday and Thursday - pushing deepwater heights back up in the 8-12 ft range Wed - 10-15ft Thursday - biggest north of the Bay Area.    Another round of shorter period west swell due in for the weekend - which will push heights back into the 6-10ft range on Saturday, easing some on Sunday.  Light rain tonight - then a break - next chance of rain comes in Friday and then again next Monday.  So we're in an unsettled pattern for the next five days at least.  Winds will vary based on incoming fronts - s/se winds to start, shift to north/northwest after front passage.  Cleanest day of the week looks like maybe Thursday morning.  But with these patterns - always worth checking the winds each day.  Plenty of swell in the water that's for sure.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

SE swell from Hurricane Simon in the water at 2ft 11-12 sec from 160.  Most spots will not see this energy.  Small northwest swell at 2-3 ft at 12 seconds - just a degree up above windswell.  Long period northwest swell should start to show far north Thursday night - 3-5ft at 19 seconds, followed by a larger swell this weekend which will push deepwater heights back up into the 10-13ft range.  Northwest winds are forecast to increase towards week's end, while also turning offshore inland.  So morning sessions might see good wind conditions from Friday through Sunday.  Certainly check the winds and know your spots.  Pattern begins to break down middle of next week as the storm door looks like it might open and bring badly needed precip back to the region.  Cya in the water.

Hurricane Simon & Updated Forecast

Extreme angle SE swell from Hurricane Simon is in So Cal waters this am and moving north.  Angle of approach is 155-165 so it will miss most spots up here - except those with the best window to that swell direction.  Swell that does show will begin late tonight into tomorrow and fade late Wednesday.

New pulse of west/northwest windswell due Thursday/Friday (280-300) which will be good chest - head high + surf at winter breaks in the Bay Area.  Larger north.   Larger west/northwest ground swell (290-305) due to show this coming Friday, lasting thru next weekend and into the following week.

Winds look light northwest early in the week - stronger nw winds due from Wednesday thru Friday.  Forecast calls for another offshore wind event by next weekend - but not as strong or hot as this past event.

**Scripps Deepwater/Pt Reyes buoy has been offline since the 3rd.  Hopefully they will get that resolved today.

cya in the water.

Updated Forecast - First offshore event of the season

Pattern change starting late Wednesday on - high pressure is going to set up in the Great Basin and bring our first offshore wind event of early Fall.  Windswell primary source of waves along with a small pulse of mid period northwest swell thru Wednesday - good for chest/head high waves - bigger at top winter breaks.  Wont probably see the affects of the offshore push until Thursday.  Towards the weekend we will see another pulse of long period northwest swell and a decent shot of southwest groundswell (200-240) building Friday and lasting thru the weekend.  Should be pretty nice conditions from Friday thru Sunday.  cya in the water.

Happy Autumn - First big northwest swell of the season…..

730pm tonight is the Autumn Equinox.

First large northwest swell will start to impact our Coast mid week - with forecasted deepwater heights 10-15ft.  This is due to a large, complex storm system out in the Gulf, which unfortunately will probably come ashore around the same time.  Rain is in the forecast - Wednesday, Thursday, possibly into Friday.  Winds will be south/southwest during as the front comes ashore, probably turn northwest behind and i'll be looking for any sign of an offshore wind event next weekend.  Check the winds this week - might be a few moments - plenty of swell in the water from mid week on.  Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Rain showers have ended across the region as an early season storm dropped some badly needed rain around the area.  Looks like we could see more rain mid/late next week as the N Pac is very active - fueled in part by warm water and energy around the Pacific Basin.  The solid southwest swell is winding down some tonight - but still decent with deepwater heights at 3-4 ft from 17 seconds.  Northwest swell is winding down as well - 4-5 ft at 11 seconds.  Look for the southwest to fade more Friday - with left over northwest windswell.  By late Saturday, a larger pulse of northwest swell is due to hit - pushing surf heights back in the head to overhead range thru Sunday.  Winds will highly variable the next few days - lightest early.  Doesn't look like any huge blow out but expect stronger winds each afternoon.  Plenty of surf on tap late Saturday thru Sunday.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast -

Good run of southern hemi swells and WNW swells this coming week.  Rain chances return to the region (from Sonoma, north) Wednesday into Thursday.  Possible swell from Hurricane Odile could hit next weekend if the track takes it up Baja and into our swell window mid week.  This would be a south/southeast swell with a pretty steep approach.

SW/SWW swell will develop tonight and stick around thru Wednesday - (195-220) - good for head high and better sets at south facing breaks.

New WNW swell shows Tuesday - (290-300) good for chest/head high waves at winter breaks.  Another WNW swell will come in late this week.  More on that to come.  The N Pac is getting active.

Winds this coming week look highly variable.  W to SW to NW - strongest NW winds next Friday.  Best bet is to check it - know your spots and wind direction and you'll find something to ride.  Should be plenty of swell in the water from Tuesday on.

Cya in the water.

4 ft at 17 from 300

First small northwest swell of the Fall hitting this am.  Mixing in with a long period southwest.  Cross up should be good at certain breaks.  Winds are light and forecast to stay pretty light - especially mornings as a thermal low sits right over California.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast - N Pac Wakes…..

Solid SW swell in the water - deep water showing 2ft at 20 from 200.  Decent NW windswell still around too at 5ft at 10-11 from 300+.  Issue is the south winds - eddy off the coast continues to spin fog and wind making a mess of things.  Will be hard to find some place clean to ride today as a result.  SW swell will peak over the weekend with possible head high and bigger waves at summer stand outs.  Winds will remain onshore - lightest for AM sessions.  By the middle of next week we will see our first small pulse of the season - probably run from around the 10th to the 15th - 290-300 degrees with deepwater 2-4 ft.  We may see the wind pattern shift by the start of next week - but only to more of a light northwest flow - no offshore events forecast yet.  Cya in the water.

SEPTEMBER!

Happy Labor Day and welcome to the 2014/2015 Fall/Winter surfing season on the Central and Northern California Coast.  You made it through another summer.  Cya in the water.

Marie Rocks, More Southwest Swell to continue

A summer swell for the ages - that's been the tale of Marie.  Reports up and down the CA Coast of point breaks, nooks, crannies that rarely roar to life in the winter, let alone summer, but that's what you get with a large hurricane swell directed well at CA.  Decent size continues today, will fade some into the weekend.  Still seeing 4-6 ft 12-13 sec from 160-180 - swell is turning more SW.  We will have a new southwest swell join the party over the weekend - from around 215, much smaller than the Marie swell with deepwater probably in the 2-3ft range.  Then, looks like we will see a bigger southwest swell move in during the middle of next week (Sep 4-5) with possible deepwater heights again of 4 ft.  17-19 seconds from 201-215.  All signs now continue to indicate we will have some form of El Nino this winter - the strength of which is still tbd.  More on that as we move into Fall.  Sep 1 marks the start of the Fall/Winter Season in Nor Cal.  You've made it through another summer.  Cya in the water.

Hurricane Marie

All eyes on Hurricane Marie tonight - a Category 5 - at present 500 miles south of the tip of Baja.  Winds are 120 kt with gusts to 140kt.  Marie is generating seas as high as 48ft.  Right now the storm is moving to the northwest and should send huge surf to So Cal beaches starting late tomorrow and a very powerful southerly swell for us mid week.   We've had swell from TS Lowell and Karina since mid week - and that's been in the 3-4 ft range deep water.  Expect the swell from Marie to be larger.  Right now look for swell to build late Wednesday and last through the upcoming weekend.  Starting out south/southeast 170-180 - then late in the week switching more south/southwest - 180-210.  Winds look fairly light most of the week - from the west and northwest - perhaps a touch more northwest wind Wed to Fri.  Cya in the water.

Tropical Swell for the weekend

TS storms Lowell and Karina are in the Nor Cal swell window and you can expect to see swell move in tomorrow from Lowell (180 degrees) with more southwest swell (180-210) from Karina later in the weekend.  The East Pac is very active with another system due to become a TS in the next 48 hours.  We should see waist to shoulder high surf with some bigger sets at spots with good southerly exposure. Fog and onshore winds remain - probably lightest in the mornings.  A storm system diving into the Great Basin over the weekend could bring some offshore winds to the far North Bay - but probably not enough at the surface to mix things out.  This pattern of tropical systems is a strong indication of how warm the ocean is throughout the Pacific Basin.  If both systems re curve to the northeast and link up with the westerly jet stream - we would see some enhancement and swell development in the Gulf later next week.  The energy is out there - now just really waiting on Fall to kick in.  Cya in the water.

4.5 ft at 14 sec

Early season northwest swell arrived last night - deep water showing 4-5 ft with periods 14 sec.  Winds are actually a bit east/offshore at some spots this morning.  Nice warm up for September.  cya in the water.

Early Signs…..

Signs of the coming season ahead this week.  Early season storm in the Gulf of Alaska has sent off a pulse (285-310) which is due to show Tuesday AM far North and Bay Area Tuesday PM (largest late in the day).  Probably good for chest high waves, maybe some bigger sets at breaks with a good window to the west/northwest.  Biggest waves found far north.  Swell should peak on Wednesday and then fade out.  NW windswell will be in the water the entire time so don't expect super clean conditions.  Fog, onshore winds remain as well with low pressure right off the coast increasing the depth of the marine layer.  Cya in the water.

August Looms - El Nino Update

August.  Transition month on the North Coast.  Buckeye trees are already turning and i actually saw a few local maples showing some very early color this morning as they give up on the dry summer and decide to toss in the towel with hopes for a wet Fall.

If you've been in the water lately, you've noticed how warm it is.  Unusually warm in fact this time of year.  The entire Pacific Basin remains much warmer than usual as our northwest wind machine has been very quiet.  This is a good thing, as high pressure, a dominant feature for the past three years in the Eastern Pacific is not strong.  Hoping that it doesn't regain momentum as we head into September so we can get some early storm development.  The book on this years El Nino is still being written.  For sure it doesn't look like a big event, could even end up a very non event - but everything is in far better shape than in anytime over the past three years.  Another month or two - and we will have a handle on the cards we will be dealt for the Fall/Winter Season.

In the meantime, windswell remains primary wave source with some signs of life down under for some new south/southwest swells as we move into August.  North Pacific still fairly active for late July, but not much swell pointed our way yet.  Cya in the water.

JULY - Dog Days

Hope you got some of that good south swell action over the past few days.  Certainly were some moments in the water at the right spots.  Back to dribble today and probably for the rest of the week with onshore winds and windswell the rule.  Look for another smaller run of southwest swell towards the middle of the month.  North Pacific still remains fairly active for summer - and predictions of El Nino remain as water temps continue to remain warmer than normal.  Next month or two is critical to see if we will actually go into a new El Nino event for the fall/winter.  Next post in August - September 1 is getting closer each day!  cya in the water.

Waves - Rare off season swell

Buoys are 10-14 ft at 12-14 seconds from 290 plus this am - quite a surprise as this swell came in much bigger than models indicated a week ago.  Mixing in with a decent southwest swell (for around these parts) - so you might find something to ride today if you know where to look.  Winds not ideal and won't be for most spots.  Pushing into July - only two months to go until Fall.  The North Pacific has been far more active than usual this summer - which you can attribute to the warming Pacific.  Hopefully this trend continues for the next 45-60 days which will give us a pretty good indication of how strong this potential El Nino event is actually going to be.  Cya in the water.

JUNE

Blah.  That's all I can say about June right now.  If you have the time - travel someplace warm.  Talk to you in July.

Hurricane Amanda - Happy Memorial Day

Sunday morning.  The first hurricane of the season is firing up in the East Pacific.  Hurricane Amanda is the second strongest system on record (behind Adolph in 2011) with sustained winds at 140kts.  Could be a harbinger of things to come as El Nino continues to show signs of intensification in the Pacific Basin with warm water throughout.  The warm water exception of course is along our coast - where northwest winds have been howling offshore and the water is a balmy 47-50 degrees from SF north.  As for surf - north windswell and background sw swell the rule for the weekend.  Look for a stronger pulse of sw swell to come in next week.  Winds will remain from the northwest and you'll have to pick and choose your sessions.  I'll continue to provide spotty surf forecasts and updates on El Nino through the end of August.  Starting September 1, I will return to more regular updates.  Cya in the water.

MAY

Hope you got some surf this past week - we certainly had some nice conditions for late April.  Winds are cranking back up again and we will continue to see small/medium sized northwest swell and windswell through the period.  Conditions will be cleanest at breaks sheltered from the wind.  Nothing that exciting from the southern hemi - just background swell for the coming week.  Small chance of rain Monday, but primarily for the North Bay.  Cya in the water.

MID APRIL UPDATE

Spring.  Mostly onshore winds and fog already the rule, sheltered spots will be the most favorable for riding waves - but you'll always find windows at other breaks as high pressure ebbs and flows around the region.  We do have a strong late season storm developing in the Gulf of Alaska and that will send a good size swell train our way late Sunday into Monday/Tuesday.  Swell will peak Monday with deep water surf heights forecast in the 6-10ft range - from 280-310.  Good for double overhead ++ surf at north facing breaks.  Chance of rain Monday and Tuesday.  No real clean wind forecast for the next week.  WNW winds the rule.  There's a lot of talk about El Nino coming - even the tools in the main stream are talking about a Super Nino - but you have to discount what they say since they know very little about weather.  That said - water temps are much warmer across the Pacific Basin.  We certainly appear to be transitioning to an El Nino pattern.  The next two months will be critical to give us an indication of just how strong this will be.  If we do push into an El Nino - looking for stronger south swells, more activity in the East Pacific/Mexico for hurricanes and TS's.  Then, next Fall, we would likely see an increase in North/West Pacific storm/swell activity.  It would be nice to have a strong summer of south swells - just have to wait and see what develops.  Cya in the water.

APRIL -

Orion setting early in the western sky is always a sign the seasons are changing.  It's April, and by all accounts by now we're usually strafed by northwest winds and cold water - but so far this spring, knock wood, water temps aren't too bad.  And we've been blessed with small, but fairly consistent swells from the Gulf of Alaska.  That should continue through the weekend.  We also have a small run of back to back southwest swells from down under as the South Pacific begins to stir.  Weak storm tonight will briefly shift winds to the south and then strong to the northwest late Friday and Saturday before easing up early next week.  Look for deepwater swell from 270-305 at 4-7 ft through next Tuesday.  Might see light AM winds for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  Stuff to ride, keep an eye on the winds and know your spots.  Southwest swell will be from 190-220 through next Thursday.  Cya in the water.

Mid March - Swell to continue

Solid WNW swell in the water today through early week.  Deepwater 8-12 ft at 14-17 sec from 290-300.  Swell will peak overnight and be quite solid tomorrow.  Look for decent size surf most of the week - just keep an eye on the winds.  Mostly N to NW wind flow predicted.  Cya in the water.

March

March 1 is usually the official end to the Fall/Winter season in Nor Cal as conditions and the weather transition over to something a bit less desirable  - like cold water and northwest winds.  This week - we will have plenty of overhead swell right through next weekend - but because of ongoing storms most spots will be torn up due to south or southwest winds.  Later in the week - winds will switch to northwest - probably Thursday.  So, know your spots and keep an eye on the winds and you'll find something to ride.  Reports will be a bit less frequent as we move into Spring - but i will keep an eye on things and provide updates as needed.  Cya in the water.

Lighter winds for the weekend - storms next week to close February

Winds are easing up and offshore at area beaches this morning.  Swell is still decent size  7-8 ft 11-12 seconds from 285 plus.  Swell will fade throughout the day. Saturday will featuring smaller surf in the morning and then an increase in size as a new WNW swell moves in.  This swell will stick around Sunday - 3-5ft deepwater.  Should see good morning/offshore winds Saturday and Sunday.  Next week the storm door opens again as a series of strong systems will impact the region from Wednesday through the following weekend bringing rain and strong south winds.  When it's all done we will be into the month of March and then the northwest wind machine will start to ramp up.   So get on it.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast - Northwest Winds

Northwest winds will be the rule this week as high pressure sets up.  There will be plenty of swell in the water at times, but need to find protection from the winds.  Models hint at another wet pattern change mid next week through the end of the month with rain/storms.  Then it will be March and we know what happens around here then.  Get what you can as i expect we're going to have a very windy spring around these parts.  Cya in the water.

Rain, mix of swells and wind to continue through the week

Next storm system due in tomorrow afternoon into Thursday.  Look for northwest winds changing over to south/southwest.  Dry on Friday, more rain Saturday and Sunday.  Nothing is really going to be very clean for the next 4-5 days - there will be swell from different sources - finding someplace clean to ride will be the key.  We need the rain so let it be so.   Keep an eye on the winds and buoys and you'll find some windows to ride.  Cya in the water.

Pattern to remain unsettled

Strong, compact storm dropped down along the coast yesterday bringing much needed rain to most of the area and higher amounts than forecast.  NE winds this morning - swell is 8-10ft with mixed periods from several sources.  We will remain in a more normal winter pattern this week - with more rain and cold temps forecast Wednesday and Thursday and then models forecast a very wet shift in the jet stream for next weekend.  Surf will stay on the smaller side most of the week - winds will be highly variable depending on the day.  Best bet is check it each morning and see if you can get some.  Cya in the water.

Winter returns (briefly) and conditions go south

Back to back weak storm systems moved through our region bringing some measurable rain and northwest winds.  What a distant memory now all those fine days earlier this month and in December yeah?  Don't look for things to improve much, northwest winds today and tomorrow.  On Sunday, another low pressure system will drop south along the coast bringing a threat of rain and light south winds.  Sunday morning might be ok - but far from super clean.  Small surf looks the rule with a bump up Sunday and Monday as a new WNW swell comes in.  Best breaks during these days might be a few feet overhead with the sets.  HIgh pressure builds back in next week, but not as strong as the drought high pressure of the best few months - models hint and another storm next weekend.  Winds next week look northwest - maybe some clean mornings.  More on that after the weekend.  Cya in the water.

Solid surf continues, pattern change in the weather next week

Solid deep water swell continues today - 5-8 ft from 275 + .  Winds are generally light right now as high clouds move overhead from a weak storm system moving in from the south.  Look for generally elevated surf through next Thursday - but our long run of offshore days looks like it will come to an end next week as a strong storm moves in from the Pacific and the blocking ridge of high pressure leaves the region - bringing us badly needed rain.  Right now rain could begin in the North Bay as early as Wednesday night and stick around through Friday.  You can look for south/southwest winds to pick up those days and then northwest blow behind the front.  Until then, plenty of surf on tap just check the winds.  Cya in the water.

Large swell to impact coast late Thursday

Buoys north of Hawaii show the story - 26ft at 17 seconds.  The Islands will be massive later today.  Large surf continues for us and will get much bigger over the next few days as the swell from a massive low pressure circulation (a storm filling almost the entire North Pacific) begins to show late Thursday with 6-8 ft deepwater at 25 seconds.  Swell to increase Friday with long periods and size - 10-14 ft at 18 seconds - maxing out on Saturday at 15-18ft.  Not quite the mega swell models were forecasting a week or so ago - but should be the biggest surf we've seen this winter at most north facing/big water breaks.  Winds look tricky the next few days as an inside slider storm barrels into the Great Basin, then retrogrades towards the CA Coast.  This is going to trigger a strong southerly wind surge late Thursday into Friday.  Then we go back to a north to northwest wind event for the weekend.  Winds over the weekend may very well turn offshore for the mornings.  Could see some drizzle Thursday/Friday from this system - but not much precip expected.  CA remains locked under high pressure through the end of January.  Large storms west of the Dateline will continue to generate swell trains that impact the region.  But no weather will make it past Hawaii.  Cya in the water.

One more small fun day, then a 50 year swell???

Amazing winter conditions continue - offshore winds, day after day of rideable waves.  Friday will see the smallest day of surf for the next 7-10 - with shoulder to head high surf at north facing breaks.  A very potent run of storms north of Hawaii is kicking up swell that will begin to impact our region later in the day on Saturday and continue through all of next week.  Could see potentially extremely large surf around Jan 24-25 if conditions behave as models forecast.  So look for increasing surf late Saturday from 270-300 with double overhead sets expected by sunset.  Larger swell Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday - in the 10-15ft range Sunday and then 8-12 ft through the week.  If the mega swell comes in it will show late next Thursday - be full force Friday with deepwater swell heights forecast at 20-30ft!!  This would be one for the ages if it materializes.  **I still think most of the models are too hot on this swell - but it's worth noting they've been pretty consistent for over a week now forecasting extremely large waves.  Should have a better handle on things by the middle of next week.  No end in sight to the offshore winds as summer time high pressure has the region in full lock down from rain and storms.  I can't emphasize enough how dire things are now for California.  We're breaking all sorts of records for lack of rainfall, snowfall, high temps and dry conditions and in many ways could be looking at a drought event never experienced.  So do you part - conserve water and tell family, friends, people you work with to do the same.  It could make a huge difference for all of us next summer.  Enjoy the surf, cya in the water.

Large swell to impact coast tonight and tomorrow….

Very powerful winter storm in the northeast Gulf of AK - has whipped up a large swell train which will start to impact the coast tonight and last through Sunday afternoon.  Oregon Coastal buoys are starting to show deepwater in the 18ft range - expect 14-18ft deepwater swell north of Pt Reyes, 12-14ft to the south - with bigger sets and a bit unruly at times.  Period will be 15-16 seconds - angle 300 +.  Winds are going to be northwest tonight and north tomorrow.  Probably won't be very clean at anything west/north facing.  Look for elevated surf levels through most of next week with good conditions as wind turn offshore starting Monday and look to hold through next Thursday.  What little rain we managed to squeeze out today is it for us until the end of January.  Dry weather will dominate the region.  Great for surfers, bad if you're a fern.  Cya in the water.

Our long run of clean days over for now…..

Well, it had to happen, onshore winds have returned after what seems like a month of offshore and clean days.  Don't get too depressed, because it looks like we could see warm temps and offshore winds return next week - but in the short term - swell inbound with northwest winds.  Long period swell will start to build in later tonight (295 to 305) peaking over the weekend.  Looking for deepwater heights in the 6-10ft range from Friday to Sunday.  But winds will be an issue today, Thursday, Friday and Saturday, possibly cleaning up for light morning winds on Sunday.  Best chance of rain will occur Saturday as the tail end of a weather system brushes Nor Cal.  Beyond that, high pressure regains control and no rain is forecast through Jan 20th.  We're almost halfway through our rainy season now and most of the State finds itself in a severe water deficit.  Most areas 5-10% of normal.  We all need to conserve water and anyone reading this blog should tell a friend or two they know.  Most people aren't in tune with the weather like surfers and just think we're having a nice winter.  Well the sun is shining and it's all wonderful, but come July we will all be lucky to get a one minute shower.  Do your part and watch your water use.  Until then, plenty of swell, keep an eye on the winds if you know the coast you'll find spots to ride even during northwest wind events.  Cya in the water.

Week Ahead

Fun size surf continues with very clean conditions.  New WNW swell will fill in late today and waves should be a couple feet overhead on Tuesday at winter breaks.  Smaller Wednesday, swell comes back up late Thursday into Friday and next weekend should feature large surf with 8-12ft of deepwater forecast from a storm whipping up a swell train in the West Pacific.   Winds look good through about Wednesday then we might see an increase in northwest wind flow through the weekend as a few systems brush past us to the north and the high pressure gradient increases down the coast.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Great run of good surf will continue for the rest of the holiday week.  A touch smaller than our past two swell events, but still head to overhead surf at north facing/winter breaks through Sunday.  Winds look decent as well.

Note - NOR CAL Buoy link appears to be offline - i'm sure the fine people in La Jolla will fix when they get back from holiday.

Cya in the water and Happy New Year.

Holiday Forecast

Pretty epic week of surf ahead to enjoy the holidays.  Offshore winds, back to back swells right through next Sunday.  Our current swell will wind down Tuesday, but still feature overhead waves at north facing breaks.  Further reduction on Wednesday, fun size - and then things go large again late Thursday  to Sunday.  Biggest days looks like next Friday/Saturday/Sunday - with 6-12ft of deepwater swell (285 to 305 deg) on tap.  The late week swell will feature some lulls like our present swell, however the storm that created this next event was closer and stronger than the previous storm, so you can expect a bit more activity and strong pulses of sets when they roll ashore.  Happy Holidays to everyone.  Cya in the water.

She's Gonna Blow & More Swell On The Way

Calm to slight northwest winds this morning.  Two storm systems - one to the south and one to our north will influence the region over the next 48 hrs.  Additionally, a very strong low pressure system west of Hawaii is kicking up a long period powerful swell that will come in this weekend.  Winds will ramp up late tonight into Thursday - Gale Warnings posted along with High Wind Warnings in the North Bay.  Expect 25-45kt winds with gusts as high as 60kt over our outer waters.  No rain with either system, just crazy pressure gradients that will force winds from high in the atmosphere to mix down to the surface.  As for that weekend event - look for building swell Saturday, biggest late - 6-10ft deepwater (275 - 295), bigger Sunday - 8-12ft deepwater, fading some Monday 6-10ft deepwater - and then a steady fade into next week.  May see lighter winds all weekend - especially mornings.  NO rain in the forecast, in fact it looks like 2013 will end up as the driest year on record - dating back to the 1850s.  We are in a world of shit when it comes to water - so do your part now and start conserving.  No indication this high pressure ridge is going to leave us for the winter.  cya in the water.

BOOM

OCEAN BEACH YESTERDAY…...

Weekend forecast, Solid Swell on Monday

Great conditions on tap with offshore winds the next few days.   Solid swell today and tomorrow - deepwater 5-8 ft - then much larger surf on Monday with deepwater 10-15ft.  Big wave spots will see surf in the 18-20ft range on Monday.  Cya in the water.

New West Swell, Cold Temps

New West swell will fill in Monday and stick around through Tuesday.  Look for head to slightly overhead waves at the best facing breaks.  Offshore winds most of this week - maybe an afternoon sea breeze of sorts.  Fun size surf really through Friday.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast - Old Man Winter To Visit

Swell still 5.5ft at 12 from 270+ - winds coming up a bit and will really start to blow from the north and northwest tomorrow as a very cold system drops south out of British Columbia.  Could see freezing temps at the Coast by Thursday/Friday morning - and very cold temps in the 20s inland.  No rain to speak of - however models are hinting at that possibility for next weekend and beyond.  Swell wise this week - mix of north and northwest windswell will be the rule really - and winds are going to probably make a mess of it from Tuesday on.  Sheltered spots will probably be best, but also small given the short period nature of the swells on tap.  So, good week to get back to work.  Keep an eye on the winds and swell, know your spots and you might find something to ride.  ***Side note - NOAA released it's buoy recovery and repair list for 2014 and none of the CA Buoys that are out - are on the list to be repaired and redeployed.  Thanks NOAA.  Papa and CA will remain off the grid for the season.  Cya in the water.

Powerful Swell for Thanksgiving

 Super clean conditions today with small waves.  That will change quickly tomorrow night as a strong west (265-295) swell fills in rapidly.  Thanksgiving will dawn with booming conditions - deepwater 8-10ft ++ with long periods.  Unlike most of the swell events so far this season - this has quite a bit of westerly angle - so breaks that favor big west/northwest swells will be rocking.  Winds look really good   for Thursday and Friday.  Might even see decent winds for Saturday.  By Sunday, nw winds may ramp up some.  Swell right through Sunday as we get a reinforcing shot of waves for Sat/Sun.  Plenty to ride, cya in the water.

Very small surf for the weekend….

Surf will be small to flat this weekend depending on your location.  N Pac swell machine has gone to sleep and all we really have is northerly windswell from 325 plus.  Really the story of our season so far - extreme angle smaller swells as the Eastern part of the North Pacific has been the most active.  So grab a log or go golf.  Things may improve early next week - but just by a touch.  Cya in the water.

Rain to return along with southerly winds….

Good size storm system organizing about 700 miles offshore this morning will bring badly needed rain to most of central and northern California over the next 3-4 days.  Heaviest amounts north of SF but looks like everyone will get in on the action starting late tonight in Sonoma County.  Swell wise, doesn't look to hot this week - going to be mostly windswell and smaller north swell right through next Saturday.  Might be some windows in between bands of rain and wind - but this might be a good week to get some work done.  After this week's rain event high pressure will build back in which will give us an extended period of dry weather thru Thanksgiving. Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Dense fog has returned to the region as high pressure clamps down overhead.  There are a few storm systems diving into the Great Basin over the next couple days and that will ramp up the north winds which should scour out the fog.  It will also create generally sloppy conditions with short period windswell forecast to pick up and last through Saturday morning.  Not sure how clean it's going to be anywhere - check the winds in the mornings.  Cya in the water.

HIgh and dry

Meager storm tried to bring badly needed rain to the region overnight - but lost the battle.  HIgh pressure regains control and looks to stick around for the next two weeks.  We're currently enjoying the driest calendar year on record (going back to 1850).  Fun size surf will remain all week - and we should see periods of offshore winds/good morning conditions through the weekend and probably into next week as well.  Might see stronger winds in the afternoon hours - but mornings should be good.  Cya in the water and do what you can to conserve water.

Weekend Forecast

Fun size wnw swell tomorrow - waist to head high - with slightly overhead waves at best north facing breaks.  Wind should be pretty decent most of the day - then start to pick up tomorrow night.  New swell will build in late and plus on Sunday with deepwater in the 4-7ft range.  Keep an eye on winds Sunday, may turn south as an approaching cold front comes in late Sunday.  Chance of rain Monday night into Tuesday - then high pressure builds back in which should lead to nice conditions.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

New long period northwest swell showing far northern buoys - 8-9 ft 20 seconds.  Swell will top out Tuesday and Wednesday with well overhead to double overhead waves likely at north facing breaks.  Looks like we'll have offshore/light ne winds the next two mornings for sure - with light afternoon winds.  Surf to fade just a bit Thursday and Friday - but still feature overhead surf at west/north facing breaks.  Global weather models hinting at a major pattern change next week with the storm door opening.  A bit too far out right now to give much weight to the forecast - but something to monitor.  Next two mornings should be good for those who like the big stuff.  Cya in the water.

Next Three Mornings...

Light Am winds the next three days - with very cold temps early Wednesday morning in the North Bay with low to mid 30s.  Overlapping small northwest swells will keep surf in the fun size.  Winds come up again late week - as will the swell - as another cold front pushing to our north.  No rain in forecast for SF and parts north.  Not digging the high pressure ridge establishing itself - doesn't bode well for early season rains and sand bar development at spots that like weather.  We'll see what unfolds.  Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Fun size mix of southwest and northwest swells on tap.  Head high sets at top spots.  Winds will be lightest in the mornings - may see a bit more afternoon sea breeze each day.   Cya in the water.

Larger Long Period Swell Early Next Week....

Small surf prevails - with fog back at the coast.  Things should remain on the small side until late Sunday night when early forerunners of the swell from former Typhoon Wipha start to show - deepwater 4-6ft at 20-23 seconds.  By mid day Monday, look for 6-8 ft at 18-20 seconds and during the peak of this event we might see larger sets in the 10-15ft range.  Swell angle 309 deg. A few things about this forecast.  First, this storm developed quite far from Northern CA.  Second, the main life cycle of this storm has been in the very far northern latitudes of the N Pac - not ideal for swell angle into N Cal.  So expect long lulls, but when the energy does come - especially during the peak of the event and peak tides - expect things to pack a good punch.  Wind forecast not ideal for early next week - NOAA still saying nw winds each day over the coastal waters - but they are forecast to stay light - so morning will probably be the best windows.  Cya in the water.

Week Ahead

Should be offshore most of the week - especially for am sessions.  No big surf - just fun size back to back pulses of northwest swell and windswell.  A bit bigger Wednesday/Thursday.  Next large swell event looks likely for next week - as an old typhoon is going to go extratropical off Japan, get caught in the westerlies and head our way with swell.  More on that later in the week.  Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Small mix of northwest windswell and southwest groundswell for the weekend.  Waist to shoulder high- maybe some bigger sets during favorable tides.  Winds look lightest for the AM sessions - stronger afternoon flow.  Fog and low clouds hanging around.  Not too much interesting on the long term right now - waiting on the North Pac to really get busy and shift the season into high gear.  Cya in the water.

Conditions to improve later in week

Windswell is 12ft at 10-11 sec from 310 plus.  Winds are actually lighter than forecast nearshore, but still blowing strong over the outer waters.  Storm system has dropped down south out of BC, right now going down the spine of the sierra dropping some early season snow.  No rain forecast for us, just cooler temps and breezy.  Things should improve more Thursday and Friday - swell will drop through the period and we should have light AM winds, but probably stronger afternoon onshores.  No pure offshore period forecast, in fact the extended into next week shows more of an onshore component to our weather.  Should be waves to ride, just check the winds.  Cya in the water.

Updated Weekend Forecast

Water temps are dropping with the strong northwest winds - Bodega Buoy showing 48 F.  No real data available closer in since the NOAA SF Buoy isn't reporting temp and the Half Moon Bay Buoy is now offline too.   With more and more buoys failing or offline it will become harder in the near future to get a good sense of what is going on in the outer waters and it's most dangerous for fisherman and commercial marine transport.  In the meantime, we work with what we have.  The rest of the week will feature northwest windswell/mid period groundswell in the 3-6ft range.  Conditions should clean up late tonight as the winds veer from northwest to northeast and offshore.  So the next few mornings "should" feature cleaner conditions with cold water temps.  No significant swell on the charts yet - but models are hinting at perhaps another good shot late next week.  Cya in the water.

14 ft @17

Macking northwest swell started to fire late yesterday and will peak today.  Steep angle of approach - 320 - size is solid.  Swell will gradually wind down thru Wednesday.  Smaller surf on tap for the rest of the week beyond that and into the weekend.  Storm system is passing through today and we will see a few days of northwest winds (especially outer waters) and perhaps turning more offshore late in the week.  Plenty to ride if you know where to look - check the winds.  cya in the water.

Conditions to improve towards the weekend

Active storm track just to our north is creating very strong northwest winds that may flirt with moments of offshore over the next 24-36 hours (unlikely at the coast however).  Swell remains good size at 6-10 ft deepwater (larger farther north).  Looking for lighter morning winds from Friday to Sunday and size will drop down into a fun zone 3-5 ft deepwater Friday, a tad smaller Saturday, then rapid increase in surf height on Sunday (late) when a new swell runs in pushing heights back up to 6-10ft deepwater for Monday.  Fall is here, the North Pacific is active and we will continue to see plenty of surf for the next seven days.  Slight chance of rain again for the North Bay late Sunday, into Monday.  Swell angles remain pretty steep for most of these events - 300-325, as the energy is gaining the most traction in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska.  Cya in the water.

Boom

.MARINE...AS OF 2:00 PM PDT MONDAY...THE FIRST NOTABLE SWELL OF
 THE OF THE FALL SEASON WILL BUILD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
 THANKS TO A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODEL
 GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LOCAL SWAN MODEL...CONTINUES TO INDICATE
 BUILDING SWELL NEAR 300 DEG AT OR ABOVE 10 FEET BY THIS EVENING
 AND INTO TONIGHT. A MODERATE PERIOD OF 14-15 SECONDS WILL ALSO
 ACCOMPANY THE BUILDING SWELL. THE HIGHER SWELL WILL LIKELY LAST
 THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY.

First Big Shot of the Fall - More Next Week

First storm of the Fall season is generating a swell train that will build late Friday and then peak saturday with 8-12ft deepwater forecast.  First potential rain of the season is also coming in with it - late Friday into Saturday - but might be a North Bay only event with only scattered showers from SF south.  Solid swell left on Sunday and fading some into Monday.  Next bigger shot comes in Tuesday - also 8-12ft deepwater - perhaps bigger.  Winds are going to be an issue the next five or so days.  With the front on Friday/Saturday - probably see south winds come up with the advance of the storm.  Then behind, cool northwest flow is forecast with strong winds through the week as the jetstream gets quite active just to our north all next week.  Fall is here for sure - storms are working through the Gulf of Alaska - so plenty to ride - just keep an eye/check the winds.  I won't be updating this report until Sept 25 as i will be out for a few days.  Cya in the water.

Things to get active

New northwest swell peaking tomorrow - right now 4-5 ft at 12 sec from 300-310.  Winds are blowing fairly strong from the north/northwest.  Next few days should feature north winds and less fog, and even though winds wont be offshore, could see some warmer/sunny days at the coast.  By the end of the week - our first storm system of the Fall will come through with a chance or rain Friday into Saturday morning.  This storm will also kick up a good size northwest swell - the first and biggest of the season so far - with forecast heights 6-10 ft deepwater for Saturday and Sunday.  Swell looks to stick around with some reinforcing shots of northwest swell through early next week.  So, plenty to ride coming up - just keep an eye on the winds as we don't have any real "clean" wind days ahead - but might find some good windows.  Cya in the water.

Not very September like....

Northwest winds howling for the past 3 days now.  We still have small amount of northwest swell left from the event two days ago - but fading fast.  Southwest swell has taken over as primary source of waves - deepwater 1.8 to 2 ft at 17 from 185 or so.  Winds are suppose to ease overnight as the pressure gradient begins to relax, but don't expect pristine conditions for Sunday.  Next NW swell looks to get in here mid week - could be on par with this past event, perhaps a bit bigger.  More on that in a few days. Until then, slim pickens.  Check the winds, maybe you'll find someplace to surf.  Cya in the water.

First decent northwest swell at northern buoys....

Deepwater swell starting to show far northern buoys - 3-5 ft at 18-20 seconds.  Swell will start to show here late today and start peaking during the day on Thursday.  Should see 4-6 ft deepwater with 17-20 second periods.  Nothing huge, but compared to what we've had it's going to feel bigger.  Winds remain onshore with fog and low clouds, but should stay on the light side.  Check the winds for sure.  Swell will stick around thru Friday, fading out Saturday.  Cya in the water.

Nice shot of northwest swell due in next Thurs/Friday

Fall is here.  Good weekend behind us and a nice pulse of northwest swell to look forward to for Thursday and Friday.  Low pressure system is tracking in the Gulf (remains of former TS Toraji) which will send in a good hit of northwest swell (290-305) starting late Wednesday, peaking Thursday and hanging around thru Friday.  Top winter breaks go 1-2 ft overhead during the peak of the swell on Thursday.  Winds look lightest thru the mornings this week - with a stronger seabreeze for each afternoon.  For sure check the winds during the week as the forecast is higly variable.  We have no outer buoys working (Papa and CA have both been offline for a while now) and no date for re-deployment, courtesy of NOAA and their budget cuts.  It will make forecasting incoming swell trains much more difficult this season.  Best to look at the far northern buoys and the Pt Reyes buoy to get a handle on size as swells get close.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast - Offshores for the weekend?

Back to some marginal conditions again at least for today.  NW wind is on it and blowing hard at the outer waters.  That should take a few degrees off the water temp for the weekend.  Windswell will also increase tonight and tomorrow and a new mid period northwest swell will come in Friday and last into Sunday.  Right now looks like surf will be in the 4-6 ft range on Friday (deepwater) and 3-5ft on Saturday into Sunday. High pressure is building into the Great Basin, while thermal low pressure is going to build on the coast.  What this should do is drive temps up, the flow should switch from onshore to offshore and we will see warmer temps at the coast.  That's the forecast, we'll see if the wind direction and warm temps make it to the coast.  I'm still a bit skeptical given the strong nw winds that are forecast to blow over the outer waters most of the weekend.  For sure winds will be lightest in the mornings Friday to Sunday - so check it.  Cya in the water.

A fine day, updated forecast

Looks like September today - winds not really a factor all day - and certainly didn't end up as forecast.  Look for locally light winds the next two mornings - PM winds will be stronger, but not much.  We had a nice pulse of northwest windswell today - deep water 3-4 ft at 10-12 seconds from around 300.  Swell will stick around tomorrow and then begin to fade.  Weather models are now hinting at perhaps some offshore flow later in the week as a low drags into the Great Basin.  This should coincide with more windswell and then a larger pulse of Gulf swell - more on both of those events Wednesday.  Cya in the water.

Welcome to the 2013-2014 Surf Season

September 1st.  We made it through another summer.  Small pulse of northwest windswell from 285-310 continues today with waist/shoulder high waves at better breaks.  Small southwest continues too.  Winds are mostly onshore as fog continues to hug the coast.  In the Gulf of Alaska - stationary low pressure circulation will drive another similar size northwest pulse in here Monday into Tuesday.  Winds look to remain problematic - lightest in the mornings.  In the long range (next weekend) we might see our first real shot of northwest swell (overhead sets) as a low pressure system just coming out of the Bering Sea will drop into the Gulf of Alaska early in the week, develop winds over the sea surface and bring us swell.  I'll have an update on that Wednesday, as well as a look ahead at coastal winds to see how conditions will be.  Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast - Yeah, it's almost September 1st

You know it almost looked a bit like Fall today for a short while at the beach.  Fun southwest and northwest windswell peaking today, should still be around tomorrow for chest high sets at breaks that like the combo swell.  Winds, probably lightest early most of the weekend.  Swell will fade through Sunday.  Long term is looking more promising with our first possible small northwest swell of the season a week out.  It's just a blip on the models right now - but i'll get it dialed in early next week.  I think tomorrow is the best day of the weekend.  Cya in the water.

Last Week of Summer - Updated Forecast

Well, we've almost made it.  September 1 looms.  Now we just need the weather and surf to act like we're almost into Fall.  Fog, onshores and small surf prevail at present - although winds are light this morning.  Look for an increase in northwest windswell and southwest groundswell for Friday/Saturday - nothing beyond 2-3ft mind you - but a bit bigger than we've had of late.  Not tracking anything from the North Pacific or South Pacific beyond that.  Weak low pressure is anchored in the Gulf of Alaska with some wind associated and impulses moving thru - this will probably serve to keep the windswell going.  Upcoming weekend does look a bit on the slow side surf wise.  More on that later in the week.  Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Looks like small windswell and background south swell for the weekend - and mostly onshore winds and fog at the coast.  Winds will be lightest in the early mornings.  Look for the windswell to come up a bit late today into Saturday - but overall it's looking pretty poor.  Long range not showing that much yet, from either hemisphere.  Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Small WNW windswell - both from the Gulf and localized remains in the water.  Minimal background SW dribbles too.  While the North Pacific is showing more activity, no groundswells on the charts yet - however we will see ongoing WNW mid period swell (8-11sec) from Sunday thru next Tuesday.  Issue remains the onshore winds and fog.  Best to check early AM's for the lightest winds.  Could see the pressure gradient relax enough next week for some cleaner morning sessions.   Waiting on the jetstream to get more active. The only thing that will break up the pattern will be for storm energy to start hitting Oregon and Washington, dive into the Great Basin and give us offshore or at best some north wind flow.  No sign of that yet.  Cya in the water.

That's something....

That's an afternoon Sat shot and wind profile in the Gulf of Alaska.  There's actually a small storm getting some traction today and tomorrow.  Those Red wind barbs are showing wind and direction.  We will probably see a bit of a bump up in 8-10 sec windswell for Thurs/Friday and the weekend.  I know i'm reaching here - but when was the last time any of us had something to be excited about from the North Pacific.  More to come.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast - South Pac asleep, waiting for Nor Pac to open for biz

Upcoming week will feature onshore winds and fog at the coast - lightest winds early, and sheltered spots will probably be the cleanest.  Blocking high pressure down under is keeping the storm track zonal.  Probably have to wait until the end of the month for the pattern to change and perhaps send up some swells.  In the meantime, really waiting for more signs of life in the North Pacific/Gulf of Alaska. Could see some short to mid period west northwest groundswell by next weekend from a couple storms that are forecast to pull together in the Gulf  - however with the windswell in the water it will be hard to notice.  Cya in the water.

Not much relief

The local cams and spot checks seem stuck on pause - fog, onshore, small, crappy.  Seems like it's been that way for an eternity at this point in the summer.  There is a storm circulation out in the Nor Pac which will send us a very small pulse of mid period/windswell by the weekend - but it's going to be fairly insignificant and probably hard to detect with the local windswell.  That's about all the hope i have for all of us as we move into Mid August.  Southern hemi has gone to sleep for with no storms producing swell this week - fog and low clouds and onshore winds to continue - with winds "lightest" for the morning sessions.  Good week to get work done and maybe plan a trip to warmer waters.  September is one day closer and hopefully this stubborn weather pattern will break down soon.  Cya in the water.

Another small pulse of south

Look for another small pulse of southwest swell to fill in over the weekend - probably showing late Saturday and sticking around through Sunday.  Spots that favor a southwest swell will be the call.  Winds will remain onshore - but lightest in the mornings and some protected spots might have little to no wind during the early mornings.  Windswell around too - and still watching for a bit of a bump in the northwest windswell around Aug 4-5 - from a small storm that formed this past week in the Gulf of AK.  No luck on our potential tropical swell from the former Hurricane Gil - he was too small to generate anything decent for Nor Cal.  Surf early and keep your expectations low.  Cya in the water.

Things to get more interesting

Inconsistent SW swell pulsing up tonight - 3.6 ft at 17 seconds.  Not bad when it shows.  But the lulls are long.  This swell should hang around for two more days.  Winds are still an issue, but lightest in the mornings.  Of more interest, some very minor storm activity starting to show in the North Pac.  Could see some small pulses of mid period north windswell the first few days in August (next week) if everything comes together as forecast.  I'll keep an eye on it - but it's encouraging.  Also - Tropical Storm Gil has formed 700 miles sw of Cabo - will move northwest over the next few days and if it stays on that course - we could see a shot of tropical swell up here around Aug 4-5th.  Cya in the water.  

Weekend

Dog, dog days.   Onshore winds, small surf.  Good weekend to find something else to do around these parts.  Fog remains at the coast, no swell of interest from any direction to speak of.  It's almost August.  A few subtle signs of change already in spots - but we have a few more weeks to go before I get too damn excited.  Hang in there.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Southwest swell most of the week along with increasing north windswell.  Plenty to ride, but winds will continue to be an issue with southwest flow at the surface.  Might find some windows here and there - stay on the wind links.  It's almost August - we're getting closer to Sept 1 - just hang in there.
cya in the water.

Updated Forecast - No reports July 14-21

Small south swell in the water - 2-2.5ft at 14-17 seconds.  We will see a bit bigger push into the weekend from the storm that slammed South America and Central America this past week.  Unfortunately, due to the extreme angle of approach (165-180) from the south - many spots wont pick up the energy.  Best bet is going to be So Cal, and closer breaks to our south.  There are spots up here that will harness that angle, if you know where to look.  Looking farther ahead - the end of next week a larger southwest swell will approach.  This swell has a better direction 200-225 - and should be a pretty decent event.  Northwest to onshore winds look the rule for the extended.  Lightest in the mornings.  I'm in Mexico next week chasing that upcoming swell - so there won't be any reports until July 22.  Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Happy 4th of July weekend.  Water temps tumbled six degrees overnight - from a comfortable 60 degrees down to 54 this afternoon as the north south gradient ramped up and gale force northwest winds are whipping across the outer waters.  Swell is 10ft at 10 sec from 325-330.  South swell is barely a trace.  The heat wave is over and we will return to more typical summer weather - fog and low clouds near the coast with seasonal temps inland.  Windswell the primary source of waves for the next several days.  Winds should begin to let up Saturday over the outer waters and around the Bay Area look for south to southwest winds both Saturday and Sunday morning.  You might find something to ride, just dont expect a miracle.  Cya in the water.

Decent conditions mix of swells

Winds at this hour are much lighter than forecast - last night was actually pretty epic - front passed, gradients dropped to nothing and the WNW swell pulsed nice at north facing breaks.  This AM, WNW is fading a tad - 5.8 ft at 12 seconds - as a new pulse of SW swell begins to show - 2.8ft at 17.  The forecast still calls for winds to start to increase from the northwest today - as high pressure builds from the East which should trigger the winds to jump given the big difference in pressure (land to sea).  WNW swell will hang around as will the SW swell for the remainder of the week.  SW swell to be the main feature this coming weekend.  It's going to get very hot inland as high pressure peaks early next week.  If the high pressure moves far enough to the coast, we might see light winds (especially mornings) - otherwise, it's forecast to remain foggy near the beach with onshore winds - while just a few miles inland it could be extremely hot.  One of those heat events you need to keep an eye on the winds and if you get a window - hit it.  Cya in the water.

Offseason WNW Swell

An unusually strong Pacific weather system will be affecting both our weather and waves for the next week.  Rain in the forecast at times through at least Tuesday.  The system will kick up a longer period WNW swell with well overhead waves forecast at top winter spots for Wed/Thurs - smaller surf Friday into the weekend from the same event. but still something to ride.  Winds will continue to be the issue - south to southwest winds from the storm the next 24-36 hours, then changing back to northwest flow.  So finding something clean to ride will require some hunting.  Cya in the water.