Updated Forecast & Rip Curl Search Comes to SF

The Rip Curl Search comes to Ocean Beach this November.  Let's all hope for 14 ft at 17 seconds or so - since they've indicated the pros won't get PWC assist out to the line up.  Should be fun to watch Slater, Parko, Fanning and the boys paddle out.  Until then - we have rain, we have onshore wind and we have some small swell in the water as our soggy spring continues.  SW swell is hanging around but fading.  North windswell at 2.4 ft at 10 from 285.  Look for a bump up in north swell Tuesday into Wednesday with shoulder to head high surf at north facing breaks.  Another pulse of north swell rolls in Friday which will probably keep up through next weekend.  Similar size - perhaps a touch bigger.  Northwest winds all week - lightest in the mornings - so it's not going to be very clean.  Maybe early mornings are the best bet.  It looks like we'll finally see warmer temps next weekend as the storm track shifts north and high pressure begins to build in along the West Coast.  Cya in the water.

Mix of south and small northwest for the weekend....

South swell showing 2.5 at 14 from 195 - small pulse of northwest swell at 2.8 at 11 from 290.  The winds are the issue - been blowing west to northwest all day messing everything up.  The main energy in the jetstream is just to our north in Oregon - keeping this moist/cloudy airmass around, even though were on the southern extent of the storms.  We have a chance of rain again tonight, through the weekend and on and off again most of next week.  In short, no big warm up, no high pressure (but then again, no HOWLING nw winds either) - just murky weather.  Look for s/sw winds Saturday/Sunday.  The sw swell is suppose to pulse up a bit more over the weekend - northwest swell will probably stay around the same size.  Best bet is to probably surf very early before the winds gain speed later in the day.  Cya in the water.

10,001

Just crossed 10,000 visits today for this little blog.  Thanks to everyone for reading and supporting.  It's much more exciting than our current wind/surf forecast - which is junky winds turning onshore tonight/west Thursday.  There is a nice sw swell running in the 3ft at 15 sec range - but good luck finding some place clean enough to ride it.  Maybe cleaner Friday morning - more on that tomorrow.  Thanks again for visiting my blog.  cya in the water.

Week Ahead

**My blog got a facelift - hope you like it.  Photo credits to Hawk (i'll be adding new photos on a regular basis so feel free to send me interesting pics).  Small surf looks the rule most of the week.  Mix of windswell and south/sw swell events on and off through the period.  The southern hemi is getting more active, so you might find something to ride at breaks with a good window to that direction.  I'd recommend a big floaty board too. Winds are problematic all week with a front moving past today and another on Wed/Wed night - bringing another chance of rain.  Check the winds early/surf early/be happy with what you get. Only five months until September.  cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

On again off again chances of very light rain through Sunday/Monday.  But places south of the Bay Area probably won't see any precip at all - and likely not much past SFO.  WNW windswell the rule through the weekend - pulsing up a bit on Saturday - but staying in the head high (touch bigger at times) at breaks that face northwest.  Could see light morning winds both Saturday and Sunday - so check it early and you might get lucky.  Not much else - it's Spring, it could be blowing 50kts and it's not - so let's all consider ourselves lucky.  cya in the water.

Week Ahead

Northwest swell filled in last night - deep water is 5 ft 11-13 sec from around 305.  Some bigger energy still moving down the coast and will show up during the afternoon.  Winds are quite light at the moment but will pick up from the northwest as the day goes on.  Should have moderate amounts of northwest swell all week - with deep water heights in the 5-8ft range, head to a few feet overhead at times at breaks with a good window to the northwest.  Two fronts passing through this week - one right now which probably wont give us any rain - and another on Wednesday with a better shot of precip.  By Friday, winds look the lightest for the morning sessions.  Check the winds and surf early - always a good rule in the Spring - and you might get lucky.  I'd like to give a shout out to the Marine Mammal Center - they came out to West Marin last Thursday and rescued a very young seal pup who had lost contact with it's mom.  Hope she/he makes it back to the ocean very soon.  There are many organizations in the Bay Area that provide wonderful service to all sorts of wild animals in distress and most of the people volunteer their time to help. It's a really cool thing about where we all live and surf. cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Mix of NW windswell at 10ft 11 sec from 305 and small south - 1.7 at 17 from 165 this am.  Windswell the dominate source for the next two days.  By Sunday - we might see another shot of west/northwest swell - but smaller than the event that just hit mid week.  Winds are actually blowing east/northeast this am - look for them to shift to northwest later today.  Look for variable winds Saturday morning and then winds shift to wsw for Sunday morning as the tail end of a front sweeps to our north.  Sunny skies, high pressure builds in - cold water (48-49).  cya in the water.

Week Ahead

Lightest winds of the week appear to be tomorrow AM.  Large windswell is winding down and that trend will continue through the first part of the week.  Next large swell event looks to arrive Wednesday through Saturday with well overhead to double overhead waves at north facing breaks.  Unfortunately, onshore/nw winds will be the rule most of the week - plus we have a cool weather system coming down bringing a chance of rain from Thursday to Saturday.  Welcome to April.  cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

NW winds blowing this morning with fairly steep angle northwest windswell.  Look for that windswell to continue through Thursday (perhaps lighter nw winds Thurs morning) and then a couple larger more powerful west northwest swells due to arrive Friday through Sunday.  This will push surf heights back into the overhead to double overhead range at breaks with good northwest exposure.  Friday might have the lightest winds of the next few ways, but models are also hinting at a southerly surge of fog - so check it.  Saturday we have a small storm coming in giving us a chance of rain - and then high pressure builds back in on Sunday.  So, surf on tap for sure - but spring time winds basically - check it daily and know your spots and you might find some waves.  cya in the water.

The Up Side Of A Wet Spring....

Normally we hang our heads low when Spring arrives on our Northern Coast.  Windswell, northwesterly winds, super cold water, south swells at 1.5 ft at 17 sec.  But this year, all this late season rain is creating some sandbars at spots that normally start to go pretty quiet right about now.  So rejoice and go hunting you might just find some nuggets.  I'd also like to give a shout out to Danny Hess, Ashley Lloyd, Gary Hanel and Bob Mitsven.  Great board builders/shapers and i am lucky enough to have a board from each in my quiver.  If you ever get a chance to buy a board made by one of these folks do it - used or new.  You won't be disappointed.  I've been on their boards since late last Fall, changing it up as conditions warrant - just stoked to be catching tons of waves and really enjoying each go out.  As for the rest of the weekend and into early next week - Sunday will feature light winds early - but changing to s/sw late morning as our next (and last!) front arrives bringing rain - mostly from San Francisco to points north.  This will be a light rain event - and move out of here by Monday morning.  Looks like high pressure will take control for most of next week - with temps hitting the 70s by late week - in the inland valleys.  Northwest winds will probably be the rule - but lighter wind speeds - no full force blows.  Swell is going to stay large Sunday/Monday, at north facing breaks, then a gradual fade mid week.  Look for swell to jump back up next Friday through the following weekend.  More on that mid week.  Cya in the water.

29ft at 15 seconds

CA Buoy off the hook today.  Big West coming in tonight from this powerful storm that just roared ashore.  Look for 15-20 ft deepwater swell around here Friday. Fading some Saturday.  West winds (perhaps still some southwest) the rule - for the next 24-36 hours - then we might see a more southerly turn in the winds on Saturday when the next storm comes ashore.  Sunday winds in the AM might be light/variable - high pressure begins to build in next week which may give us a number of dry days - but also probably northwest winds.  Plenty of swell through the weekend.  It's Spring, Orion is setting - but the North Pac isn't done serving up swell yet.  cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Large swell through the rest of the week - but the winds out of the s/sw are making a mess of pretty much everything.  Another storm comes ashore Thursday - and then possibly yes another Friday into Saturday.  First real break looks like Sunday and then high pressure to finally build in next week for a return to dry weather.  You might find some moments at protected spots - but it's pretty ugly most places.  cya in the water.

3 Boards for Sale

 Board for sale.  Left to right:

Channel Island Even Keel - 6.1 - $350.00

CI Flyer - 6.4 - $300.00

CI Dumpster Diver - 6.2 - $350.00

All three boards in killer shape - i'm making room for some new additions to the quiver.

Post your interest in the comments section with info and i'll get in touch with you.  Comments are moderated and not posted unless i choose to do so - so your email and/or phone number will not be made public.

Wasabi.

Week Ahead

Big storms will continue to roll in through next week. Expect strong winds, large storm surf on and off through next weekend. Winds are going to switch from south to southwest to west/northwest depending on systems as they come ashore. Heavy rain on and off looks the rule. You might find a few windows now and then but otherwise looks like a good week to get some work done. Cya in the water.

Hey Mr Lopez - why screw with Punta Mita?

Report from Punta Mita - shoulder high and getting bigger. Surfed today with "mr Pipeline" Gerry Lopez who locals say is starting a biz down here in Punta Mita - many unhappy locals and for us traveling surfers - be prepared for clowns on longboards and SUPs in the line up with no courtesy towards anyone and very little skill. Thanks Gerry. How about you stay in Bend and try not to destroy the vibe at one of the coolest regions in Mexico. Very uncool. I hope the locals drive you out like they did Terry Sims.

Updated Weekend Forecast

Crazy day yesterday with all the destruction in Japan from the earthquake and tsunami - as well as a fair amount of damage in Santa Cruz Harbor and Crescent City.  I got out in the water around mid day - up in Marin - and it was quite dynamic as the ocean was still feeling the effects of the waves of energy coming from across the Pacific.  Tsunami Advisories are finally over - and we have large back to back wnw swells inbound for Sunday and Monday.  Unfortunately winds look pretty problematic on Sunday as a front is also dragging down from the northwest - should kick up strong se winds.  You might see some light to variable winds on Monday with xxl surf at north facing breaks.  Certainly will be plenty of swell over the next 2-4 days - just check the wind reports and if you know where to go on certain wind directions - you'll have plenty to ride. It's going to be on and off rain chances most of next week as well - so keep that in mind when planning your session.   I won't update this blog from March 16-20 - going down to Mexico to chase inbound early season sw swells.  cya in the water.

Tsunami Warning

8.9 earthquake off the coast of Japan has generated a tsunami due to arrive our shores around 8am -(Ft Point) - be careful and alert. Deepwater height is projected at 2-5 ft but keep in mind this is deep water height and tsunamis are powerful and travel much deeper than the longest period swells. more info as it becomes available

**UPDATE

New wnw swell will get in here tomorrow afternoon - with some rain and light winds.  Probably look for double overhead sets late in the day at north facing breaks.  Friday, winds look light in the AM - and swell will pump up a bit more - likely see double to triple overhead sets at the better breaks.  Again, with light morning winds.  Keep an eye on the winds, know your spots and you'll find some surf.  cya in the water.

Week Ahead

Onshore/spring time winds the rule for the next five days.  Probably lightest for the AM sesh Wednesday - otherwise - pretty messy at most north facing/west facing breaks.  Main source of swell will continue to be the northeast Pacific - with shoulder to head high + waves (at north facing breaks) the rule until Friday when a bigger pulse of WNW swell is due - at that time we may see deep water swell back in the 8-12ft range.  Small storms forecast for tonight and Thursday - but rain stays mostly in the North Bay region.  Minor chance of rain over the weekend - but it's looking more and more like the storm track is getting ready to pull out of here for the season and retreat to the northern latitudes until next Fall.  Southern Hemisphere is starting to show some early signs of life - but a bit too early yet to really focus on it.  Make the best of what you can get.  cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Fun mix of SSW swell from our storm this week and northwest windswell - 5ft at 10 from 220 and 4.8 at 12 from 315.  Should be a fun mix at the more protected spots.  Winds today have been light to variable to a touch of south.  Look for light winds again Friday morning, and probably Saturday as well.  SSW swell should fade some on Friday.  But look for size to stay around waist to head high - a tad bigger at times until Sunday - when a new pulse of west swell bumps heights up in the head high to 1ft overhead range at north/west facing breaks.  Weather should be an issue on Sunday as well as our next storm comes ashore with sw winds eventually turning wnw later in the day.  So get on it Friday/Saturday.  cya in the water.

CATCH A WAVE FOR MOLLY from Joe Carter on Vimeo.

From Endless Bummer in NY (and thanks for posting guys).  Really enjoyed this film.

March Arrives - Week Ahead

Well, March 1st is officially the start to the spring surfing season on our north coast.  However, winter is still very much in charge.  Large storm is forecast to roar ashore late Tuesday through Wednesday with high winds and plenty of rain.  In fact south winds look the rule from Tuesday afternoon until probably Thursday when things will turn west/southwest - then perhaps light to variable winds on Friday.  Swell wise - new pulse of northwest swell if filling in tonight - 5-6 ft at 14 from super steep angle - 320 plus.  Swell will quickly top out tomorrow afternoon.  Back to back westerly swells look to come in Wed/Thurs - probably biggest Thursday - with well overhead waves at the north facing breaks.  That swell will drop out quickly on Friday.  Another big storm is due in here next weekend.  So, for the next couple days find spots that like south winds.  cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast - No Snow for you!

Winds kicked around to the northwest this afternoon - mid period windswell the rule for the weekend - overhead at north facing breaks - could still be a sloppy mess as well unless you find some place protected.  Freezing temps overnight - winds might lighten up by daybreak, so worth checking.  The big SNOW was a big hype fest by NOAA and our friends in the national weather service - although if you live in the Santa Cruz or Santa Lucia Mtns - you might see a dusting of the white stuff tonight.  Otherwise - probably looking at a sunny, chilly weekend - with spring time type windswell/mid period swell from a steep northwest angle.  Check it and you might get lucky.  cya in the water. 

Week Ahead - Snowboard Nob HIll

Very cool to surf this weekend in West Marin with snow capped peaks in the background.  If you like cold, snow and wet - then the end of this week could get very interesting - with a very cold low forecast to drop down out of Canada bringing us a chance of snow at sea level Thursday, Friday.  It's happened before during strong La NIna winters - so it will be interesting to watch things develop. Between now and then - small surf pretty much the rule with perhaps northeast winds on Tuesday - then the flow turns onshore Wednesday-Friday as the weather turns cold and showery.  Steep angle northwest swell will pick up from Wednesday on with head high and overhead surf (especially Friday) at northwest facing breaks.  Just check the winds as i think it will be hard to find many places clean.  How i miss those balmy days in January....cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

cold, wet weather to continue through the weekend - maybe a break Sunday.  Back to back, smaller west/northwest swells should be good for head to overhead surf at north facing breaks - smaller at protected spots.  Winds do look light for morning sessions - so might be worth a look.
cya in the water.

STORMY

Was up on the North Coast this weekend - way north - amazing weekend and let's just say conditions on that part of the coast are rarely that sunny Mid February.  It's all come to a crashing stop today - as the first in a series of pacific systems come ashore this week.  At this point - it looks nasty right through next weekend.  There will be periods of good size swell, plus plenty of south winds.  Might see some breaks later in the week with some potential east/northeast winds by Thursday/Friday - but my best call would be to check the winds daily and know which breaks will work on different wind directions.  There will certainly be something to surf each day- you just gotta know where to look!  cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

We should have one more morning of decent winds and might get lucky for Sunday morning with light/variable winds.  West swell winding down through tomorrow and then a new, bigger pulse of WNW comes in - pumping things back up in the 6-10 ft range - double overhead at the north facing breaks on Sunday.  After Sunday - low pressure will take center stage pumping waves of showers/rain into California for most of next week.  Much cooler temperatures as well - especially by Friday - and most likely unfavorable winds on and off.  So get out the next two mornings and enjoy - then winter will make a return next week.  cya in the water.

New swell overnight - winds are offshore

New west swell is showing - 6-10 ft at 15-16 seconds.  Bigger further north you go.  Swell will be in here AM - winds should stay offshore.  Look for overhead surf at north facing breaks Thursday/Friday.  Winds look decent for the next few days - our brief Spring time blow has come to an end - but it's a harbinger of things to come my surfing friends.  So make sure to get out and enjoy the good days.  We also have a major pattern change taking shape for next week with rain expected to return as early as Monday - lasting through the entire week if the forecast holds up.  cya in the water.

Feels like Spring, looks like Spring.....

North winds howling offshore - buoys showing winds in the 29-35kt range - steep/short period windswell as a result in the 7-10ft range at a lovely 8 seconds from 330.  Look for winds to continue overnight - and then start to calm down as we move through the week.  In fact we may see a return to light morning winds starting Wednesday and lasting through Friday.  So don't panic yet.  We are looking at back to back small pulses of WNW swells starting late tonight and lasting through Friday.  Nothing huge, probaby in the 4-7 ft range (deep water swell heights) - with a bit more size Thurs/Fri.  By the weekend - and into early the following weekend - high pressure moves off - and low pressure move in - with a decent storm forecast next Tuesday, chance of rain this weekend.  Still way early to call - but something to keep an eye on.  We need more rain and snow in the mountains before the rainy season shuts down - so that is not all together a bad thing.  Keep an eye on the winds this week - know your spots and you might find a few waves here and there.  cya in the water.

North Winds kicking up

quick update - north winds are blowing hard at the buoys offshore and look to continue overnight.  Check winds early - as north facing breaks may be a mess.  Otherwise - fading west swell and short period windswell the rule - along with a small pulse of south - for Sunday.

8ft plus at 14 seconds

WNW swell filling in today - will peak overnight and start to fade some Saturday. Double overhead at north facing breaks today.  Down to 6-8 ft deepwater Saturday morning - and fading further on Sunday.  Weekend looks really nice - light winds/offshore at times.  Doesn't look like we'll have any fog - certainly no chance of rain.  cya in the water.

February - More good weather/waves on tap

Fog hanging around inland and at the coast today - fading west swell at 4-5 ft.  Look for surf to stay small the rest of the week - heading back up Thursday/Friday - which will feature deep water swell in the 6-10 ft range.  Offshore winds will kick up tonight and remove the fog - Wednesday morning should be really good at north facing breaks.  Swell moves in late Thursday and tops out on Friday.  Decent morning winds (if not most of the day) look to continue through the weekend.  Right now no rain is forecast through mid February - long range models are hinting at perhaps a significant pattern change around Feb 12-15 - to a wetter regime - but that's a long ways off right now.  Enjoy another fine run of weather.  February is considered the "last" real month of winter waves in Nor Cal - and with La Nina still in control - we could be in for a very windy, small wave spring.  So get it while you can.  cya in the water.

Back to some rain, onshores this weekend....

Our nice run of high pressure induced offshores - will come to an end Friday through Sunday.  Low pressure currently out in the Pacific will bring rain by Sunday.   Winds will be out of the west on Friday (maybe variable in AM) and then WSW on Saturday and WNW on Sunday.  Deepwater swell will come up again Sat/Sun in the 10ft range.  Surf is on the larger side today at north/northwest facing breaks - 8-10 ft deepwater swell.  Look for surf to fade just a bit tomorrow and then go back up.  cya in the water.

More of the same really......

Surfed out yet?  Well maybe by the end of this week.....Super clean conditions to continue through the end of January.  Offshores, above normal temps and swell.  Current WNW is winding down today - but plenty of size still about at north and west facing breaks.  Slow fade tomorrow before the next WNW winds up to close out our week.  Look for building overhead sets during the day Wednesday - and then double/triple overhead on Thursday into Friday - maybe down a notch on Friday.  High pressure in full control - it's been almost a month without rain and no change expected for the next 10 days.  We have a summer time high pressure dome over us and it's going to take a huge amount of energy to displace.  cya in the water.

12@20!

IT'S MACKING.  Swell has come in big, long period.  Winds are offshore.  Grab the jet skiis and head for the Outer Bars! Ha!  Anything protected will be sick all day.  Tomorrow looks just as big - maybe bigger.  Ditto for Sunday.  Offshore winds look the rule.  Tell the wife/girlfriend you'll see her Monday.  cya in the water.

Winds turned offshore - Big Swell for the Weekend

Quick update and more detail tomorrow - large XXL swell inbound for us this weekend.  Keep an eye on what it does in Hawaii today and tomorrow - extra, extra large for them.  Swell is coming a long way so there will be lulls and early on, very long period stuff.  Looks like the bulk of it hit will hit Saturday/Sunday.  Winds have been very hard to nail - but offshore today and that trend (at least for the AM sessions) should continue.  Warm temps, high pressure, La Nina.  Plenty of swell still around today from our prior event - building long period energy tomorrow.  cya in the water.

Week Ahead

Complex weather pattern overhead - east winds advecting Tule Fog from the Central Valley into the Bay Area - and n/northwest winds blowing further offshore.  Look for more dense fog the next morning or two - and then by mid week high pressure will grow stronger, and move into the Great Basin which should mix out the junk.  Large west swell charges in here on Tuesday with surf in the double/triple overhead range (10-15ft deepwater) - at northwest facing breaks.  Fading a tad Wednesday, down to 8-12 ft and fades further on Thursday/Friday.  Sheltered spots are probably going to be the cleanest with this weather pattern we're stuck in.  No rain in sight - high pressure in control and looks to stay that way through the week.  Enjoy your day off - cya in the water.

Good Times Ahead - Plenty of Swell

West swell filling in - presently at 3.4 at 14 at 290.  Size will continue to increase through the weekend - with Saturday and Sunday featuring overhead waves - double overhead at times at the north facing breaks on Sunday and into Monday.  The rain is over, and it looks like it wont rain again in the month of January.  La NIna is in full control - and a dry January is very typical of a strong La Nina pattern.  Good for surfers - offshore winds/light morning winds look the norm for the next seven days or more.  The swell machine is positioned out in the West Pacific - low pressure pumping out longer period west swells for the next few days.  So definitely a good time to get some. **UPDATE FOR WINDS - could see some very light west/northwest winds the next couple mornings - so i think protected spots might be cleanest - but certainly check winds in the AM before you go out.  cya in the water.

Week Ahead

Northwest winds never fully developed at the coast over the weekend and remained well offshore.  Winds this morning are still blowing from the east as a new, long period west/northwest swell fills in at 4-6 ft at 17 from 310.  Conditions should be clean this morning.  We do have a weak weather system moving in for Tuesday into Wednesday with very light rain forecast.  Look for decent conditions all week with small surf on tap.  Next decent shot of swell will be Friday when things will move back into the head to overhead range as a new swell comes in with really fine conditions forecast.  All n all - looks like a nice run of small surf and favorable winds.  cya in the water.

10ft at 17 from 300 - Weekend Outlook

Powerful, long period west/northwest swell charging tonight.  Filled in all afternoon and will peak tomorrow with overhead surf at most spots while top northwest facing breaks will go triple overhead at times.  Winds are still offshore, but i think tomorrow morning will be our last offshore AM for a few days as northwest winds are expected to come up in the afternoon as the ridge of high pressure that has given us all these great days at the beach breaks down and the storm track starts to take a more zonal approach to Northern/Central CA.  No rain over the weekend, but it's in the forecast starting again next week.  Look for our current swell to wind down on Saturday (still size in the AM) and also look for rising short period windswell as northwest winds will blow Saturday/Sunday.  Sunday looks pretty iffy with fading swell, windswell and northwest winds.  We might see a return to offshore winds early next week until the pattern breaks down and rain develops.  So, i'd say get out tomorrow morning and find some place protected on Saturday morning.  Watch football on Sunday.  cya in the water.

Great Week of Surf Ahead

High pressure covers the region - and we'll stay dry right through next weekend.  Look for offshore winds each morning.  Old WNW swell is winding down as a new swell is starting to show way up north.  Look for solid double overhead sets by tomorrow afternoon at northwest facing breaks.  This swell from 285-310 will peak Wednesday with even bigger sets at northwest facing breaks.  Swell will fade a tad on Thursday, as morning conditions remain ultra clean - and then another WNW swell will begin to charge in.  This swell will be a bit bigger, especially on Friday with double/triple overhead sets.  This looks like the best run of weather and waves we've had in quite a while - so get out and enjoy it.  cya in the water.

Papa Buoy 27 ft at 15 seconds - Happy New Year

Papa Buoy peaked last evening - 27 ft at 15 sec - that's Sunday's/Monday's swell inbound.  Winds are east - southeast - with more rain forecast tonight.  Winds should remain east/southeast on Sunday.  Expect double/triple overhead tomorrow at northwest facing breaks as the first significant swell in a while churns ashore tomorrow.  cya in the water.

New Years Weekend Forecast

Current short/mid period windswell will ease into Friday.  Winds are suppose to turn offshore Friday morning - but not sure that will completely happen.  Still have a good push of northwest flow in the upper atmosphere.  Saturday looks like a better bet for really clean offshore conditions and a new west/northwest swell on the rise late in the day.  Looking for 8-10 ft sets at northwest facing breaks late Saturday.  Sunday and Monday that west/northwest swell will peak in the 8-12ft range with double/triple overhead sets at northwest facing breaks.   Winds are forecast to remain light/offshore both Sunday and Monday mornings.  We do have a weather system inbound New Years Eve into New Years Day - but it's not suppose to change the wind pattern and only bring us light rain.  So  - plenty to ride the next couple days - just check your winds.  cya in the water.

18ft at 10 from 310

Swell has jumped way up - but remains only a big windswell event given last night's and today's winds.  Should subside overnight.  Protected breaks might hold some options tomorrow - check the winds and buoys early.  cya in the water.

UPDATED FORECAST

Major winter storm about to slam the region tonight.  Winds are ramping up and will be blowing gale force from the south/southeast overnight.  By the time the storm exits tomorrow - winds will shift strongly to the northwest and should blow from that direction all day Wednesday and Thursday.  Look for conditions to improve Friday and into the weekend with northeast winds Friday morning and "variable" winds on Saturday.  Swell wise - 6ft at 10 sec from 290 right now - basically windswell and that will jump up overnight into Thursday in the 5-8 ft range (deepwater swell).  Friday and Saturday actually look pretty clean - with smaller surf.  Probably some left over storm sickness on the surface Friday - however Saturday should feature pretty nice conditions.  Get through the next couple days and things should be good after.  cya in the water.

Christmas Eve/Day Forecast

Winds remained pretty calm today - very light south to southeast flow.  Mix of SW windswell and NW windswell in the water - about head high - a tad bigger at northwest facing breaks.  Look for one more morning (Friday) of light winds and then a strong, fast moving storm comes ashore for Friday night to Saturday night with heavy rain and strong S/SE winds.  I think Friday looks good - Saturday probably a bust.  Winds turn W/NW on Sunday - with increasing swell - but not certain it will clean up that fast - still worth a check.  Merry Christmas and cya in the water.

Week Ahead & Happy Winter Solstice!

Another storm set to come ashore this afternoon - lasting through Wednesday.  Great time to hit the Sierra if you board or ski - huge amount of snow up there and that will continue most of the week.  As for the surf - deep water is running 7ft at 12 from 295 today with strong SE winds 20-25 kts already blowing in advance of the surface front.  As for winds - look for variable winds potentially tomorrow morning - and then things should stay out of the south/southeast the rest of the week as more fronts move through.  Look for a mix of west/sw swell all week with most days overhead at north facing breaks - smaller elsewhere.  By Saturday should see a larger west swell come ashore with a big storm system.  More on that mid week.  So, Wednesday looks possible in the morning and then find spots that like south/southeast winds and you'll have something to ride.  cya in the water

Updated Forecast

As predicted the north pacific storm door has opened and looks to stay open through most of next week. Up here in Tahoe it's dumping snow above 7000 ft - rain below. Look for south winds through at least Wednesday. Bigger surf 8-12 ft deepwater looks likely for Tuesday and Wednesday but don't count on it being that clean. In short, these are stormy times my friends. Keep an eye on winds and you might find some moments here and there. Cya in the water.

Week Ahead

New west swell filling in today - 6 ft at 10 from around 240.  Should stick around through Tuesday with a bigger west/northwest swell to show on Wednesday with surf back up in the 6-10 ft range (deepwater) - pushing to double overhead at north facing breaks.  Winds looks to turn onshore overnight into Tuesday as a storm system comes ashore.  Thursday looks nice with east winds forecast and probably shoulder to head high surf.  More swell for the weekend forecast but looks like the North Pacific is gonna unleash a can of whoop ass on us with rain, south winds, copious amounts of snow in the Sierra starting as early as Friday night and lasting well into the following week.  I'd say get somewhere protected on Wednesday (northwest winds due) and then hit it Thursday.  Keep an eye on the winds over the upcoming weekend and you might see a few windows.  Forecast still needs to iron out the details.  I'm in Tahoe Dec 17-20 and won't be updating this forecast.  Have a great week, cya in water.

Weekend Forecast

Down in Los Angeles - actually caught uncrowded Malibu this morning with some small West swell wrap. Not sure where everyone was - i did expect a cast of thousands and was quite happy to be alone with my thoughts at 3rd point. For Nor Cal - weekend looks like smallish swell - with light winds - potentially pretty nice weather. Probably waist to chest high with some bigger sets possible at north facing breaks. Enjoy it - because models are hinting at perhaps a very unsettled pattern starting next Tuesday and lasting through the following weekend. cya in the water.

Week Ahead

Unsettled weather to continue through most of the week. Look for a window Tuesday morning - but then more southerly winds should be the norm for Wednesday, Thursday with more rain/storms until Friday. Possibly easing off as we go into the weekend. Swell stays small tomorrow as we have a mix of small northwest windswell and mid size southwest remnant storm swell which was generated by our weekend storm. New, much larger northwest swell looks to come in Wednesday to Friday - biggest Thursday with swell jumping back up in the double and triple overhead range and good northwest facing breaks. So, mid week on - plenty of surf - just check the winds and you might find a few windows. cya in the water

Quick Update for Sunday -

forecast is now calling for fairly heavy rains Sunday and high winds - especially near the coast. so keep an eye on it.

Weekend Forecast

New NW swell is peaking overnight - presently 9.9 ft at 14 sec from 310 - pretty solid but a steep approach. Look for this swell to wind down overnight. Friday should feature light to variable winds - could fluctuate between northeast/east/southeast during the day as we have a weak front moving through the region tonight. Rain chances look to pick up again Saturday/Sunday - but winds are really forecast to remain light - directionally speaking could see a wide range of wind directions given the wind movement in the upper atmosphere and low pressure systems diving through. Key word is light - so check the buoys/local wind models each morning and you might score. Swell looks to wind down Friday/Saturday - pick back up again on Sunday in the overhead range. So nothing major - but certainly waves on tap. cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Super clean conditions today with east winds and fading northwest windswell. North facing breaks were still overhead. Air and water temps are very cold and look to stay that way. We have a weather system inbound for mid week - but rain chances look slim. Better chance of rain for the weekend - but that event is also a bit up in the air at the moment in terms of timing. For Tuesday, look for offshore winds in the morning with northwest windswell fading further. Should be very clean and up to head high. Could see an increase in south winds tomorrow afternoon as the front approaches. Wednesday winds (in the am) look light and variable. Next swell is due in on Wednesday/Thursday and that will push north facing breaks back up in the overhead range. Steep angle 300-330 - which has become somewhat of a fixture of our La Nina influenced Fall. No large swell forecast for the next seven days - yet plenty of waves to ride. Keep an eye on the winds through the weekend as these weather systems coming along will keep conditions highly variable. Know your spots and like always you'll score. Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Happy Thanksgiving. Beautiful day with offshore winds, cold temps and very small waves. Look for a repeat tomorrow, even smaller surf (if it can get much smaller). Storm system drops in late tomorrow, moving north to south overnight and through the day Saturday. Saturday will feature south to southwest winds and small waves. Sunday we'll see the swell kick back up into the head-overhead-double overhead range as a new northwest swell moves in on the heels of our weather maker. Northwest winds will accompany the passage of the storm - so anything facing west/northwest will be a mess. I'd get out tomorrow and make the best of the small stuff - and then find some protection from the winds on Sunday. cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Say goodbye to water temps - 40kt nw winds will chill things off quite quickly overnight. That combined with morning temps somewhere between 20 and 30 degrees - break out your big wetsuits boys and girls. Water temp around 50 right now and dropping fast. Winds howling with front passage - Sierra is getting even more snow - will have a 10-12ft base probably by late Wednesday. Winds are forecast to subside, and turn northeast over the next two days. Surf will stay on the small windswell size. Although i am tracking a new pulse of north windswell that might give us a bit of a bump over the next 24-48 hrs. A bit uncertain if Wednesday will clean up much. The hope is that by Thursday morning - we'll have some fun conditions (very cold!) especially at northwest facing breaks. Weekend is still looking pretty small right now with another weather system due in late Friday into Saturday. cya in the water.

Holiday Week Forecast

Record cold temps headed our way mid week - with morning lows in the 20s in many of the wind protected valleys. 9ft of snow in past two days in the Sierra with more pounding them today. Who says La Nina can't bring a can of whoop ass? For us - NW windswell/short period stuff looks on tap - which has been the case now for a week or more. One of the unfortunate side effects of La Nina is the extreme northerly swell events as storms develop in the far upper north/east reaches of the Gulf of Alaska as they navigate the blocking high pressure that is set up in the Pacific. This trend most likely to continue all winter - with bouts of warmer/mid latitude storms/swell events with the high retrogrades far enough west to open the corridor. For this week - looks like the best swell/wind days will be Wednesday and Thanksgiving day with light winds/offshore and small NW windswell. Things to get really small by Friday - but then potentially pick up again next Saturday/Sunday as a new storm system comes ashore. Not really ideal conditions - but I do think Wed/Thurs are the days to chase it. Happy Thanksgiving and cya in the water.

Updated forecast

Pretty strong storm moving through tonight - nw winds will pick up hard and will blow all day Sunday making a mess of most spots. Should be plenty of swell in the water but hard to find clean spots to ride. Not an ideal few days coming up so make the best of what you can get. Cya in the water.

Updated Forecast

Our nice Fall weather exits by late tomorrow - incoming low pressure system swirling down the coast out of the Gulf of Alaska will bring on and off again rain, wind (snow at higher Bay Area peaks) and swell through Sunday. Not huge amounts of rain as this system doesn't have a lot of moisture to work with - but much much colder temps on the way. Expect steep angle (310 +) NW swell/windswell to kick up Friday and last through Monday. Probably on the ugly side with onshore winds likely for most of the period and swell of the shorter period variety. Look for solid size at nw facing breaks - especially Friday to Sunday - double overhead sets look likely at times. We might catch a break and get some lighter winds for the morning sessions - so keep an eye on the buoys and you might find some breaks to get wet. Bottom line is very cold weather on the way and unsettled conditions. Not ideal surfing weather - but if you know where to look - you can find some waves. cya in the water.

Hello Orion

Winter constellation Orion visible tonight in the eastern sky. Always a nice sight. Fall. Offshore winds are blowing 20-30kts at higher elevations. This should mix down to the surface overnight - lasting through Monday. Big shot of NW swell winds down overnight quickly. Probably look for deepwater heights of 6-7 ft at 11-13sec by sunrise. Windswell is on the rise too - given the strong north winds over the outer waters - so that might mix up the nw facing beach breaks. Look for consistent, but smaller nw swell most of next week with very clean conditions - especially mornings. Next chance of rain now looks like next Friday - as this high pressure ridge will move to the west and allow a low pressure system to drop down out of Alaska. Could be cool, wet and windy next weekend. Until then - enjoy the conditions. cya in the water.

Offshore winds/chilly nights & swell

Thanks to our girlfriend La Nina - look for offshore winds for the next 6-7 days with cold nights as high pressure clamps down on the West Coast and East Pacific/Gulf of AK. Current WNW swell will wind down overnight (from 290-310) and be replaced late Friday into Saturday by a new pulse of WNW swell (from 290-310) - pumping surf back up in the double overhead range at northwest facing breaks. Could see some bigger sets. That swell will fade out Sunday. More swell on tap for next week. Storm door is open - we're going to get the swell just not the weather with the blocking high pressure over us. Next hint of any rain would be around 8 days out from now - but that is quite uncertain at this point. So enjoy the run of nice days coming up. cya in the water.

Week Ahead

I love November. The surf, the sun angle, the lighting, the tourists are gone which makes driving to your favorite surf break more fun. If I could have one month all year in Nor Cal - it would be November. However, it most certainly isn't all dreamy today. NW winds chopping the hell out of things behind our rainy front which exited to the east overnight. Another storm is making it's way towards us - and rain should start in the north bay tomorrow afternoon. Small storm - out of here on Wednesday. Could see some really nice days starting around Thursday and lasting through Sunday. Back to back wnw swells should last through the week. Should see overhead to well overhead waves all week at north facing breaks - with smaller surf in the protected spots. Get through tomorrow and part of Wednesday and get some work done. Have dinner with the girlfriend, wife. Call your mom. Then go surf. cya in the water.

**LA NINA NOTE - after tonight's storm - high pressure to take up residence in the Gulf of Alaska and East Pacific - it's been expected and quite typical of a La Nina enhanced winter. So we can look for perhaps a prolonged period of offshore days coming up for the remainder of November. Any storms that do come along, will have to go around the high and down through BC and the Northwest. Good surfing weather - bad for snow pack and rainfall.

Weekend Forecast

Larger wnw swell moves in tonight - should push northwest facing breaks back into the well overhead to (occasional) double overhead range for Friday and Saturday. Swell will fade somewhat on Sunday but still be on the larger side for stand out breaks. New run of northwest swell inbound for Monday/Tuesday - from 290-310 - kicking back up into the double overhead range again. Weak weather system coming in Friday/Saturday - chance of rain south. Stronger storm for Sunday should bring us light rain. Winds Friday and Saturday look light - a bit more onshore push on Sunday with the storm coming ashore. plenty of swell - nothing like November in Nor Cal. cya in the water.

RIP Andy Irons

Just heard the shocking news that Andy Irons died. So sad - my thoughts and prayers to his family. Such an amazingly talented, gifted surfer. Loved to watch him ride waves.

17ft at 17 sec from 295

Doesn't get much bigger around here. Huge swell with offshore/clean conditions today and tomorrow. Epic. Get some if you can. cya in the water.

BOOM -33ft at 17- Papa buoy

Forerunners of tomorrows huge swell showing at Papa Buoy - 29-33 ft with long periods in the 17-20sec range. That's huge. It will be here tomorrow. Cya in the water and GO Giants!

EXTRA LARGE SWELL FOR TUES/WED

Huge storm winding up tonight in the North Pacific. Impressive winds are evident. This storm will create our largest swell event so far this fall - with deep water wave heights on order of 15-20 ft this coming Tuesday/Wednesday. Nice weather should accompany this swell event. Sunny skies, light winds forecast, perhaps even some offshore flow. Before then, look for fun size waves at nw facing breaks with light morning winds. Get out and get some. cya in the water.

Papa Buoy 33ft at 14 seconds last evening

Large swell developing out 600 miles - Papa buoy showing some impressive readings overnight (20-30ft). That is our inbound swell for Friday/Saturday - being whipped up by this offshore storm which is slowly making it's way towards the coast. Rain has been delayed some, as the storm as been running into drier air in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Should finally spread rain over the Bay Area Friday with showers likely on Saturday. Winds right now aren't bad - blowing southeast. Shorter period windswell is in the water - also created by the storm offshore. Look for ENE winds on Friday in the morning - turning south for Saturday/Sunday. Should be plenty of size on tap Friday and Saturday at nw facing breaks. Check the winds. cya in the water.

8@12 from 310 - Rain inbound

Big nw swell winding down today. Winds are offshore this morning. Storm is inbound and will spread rain over our region Thursday into Friday - with scattered showers all weekend as another system moves through. Look for variable winds Thursday morning and then ENE winds on Friday morning. So not horrible. However, on the weekend winds will blow south both days as the flow aloft remains in a southerly direction. Swell will climb back up in the double overhead range (6-10ft deepwater) by Friday - and then slowly fade over the weekend. Thursday/Friday mornings could be ok if the winds stay light. Plenty of swell sticking around - watch the weather systems and winds via the weather links on this blog and you'll find some spots. cya in the water.

12@14FT

As forecast, large WNW swell hitting this morning. Bigger to our north - on order of 18-20 ft - light nw winds on it - so making a mess of things at nw facing breaks. Better conditions at sheltered spots. Next few days will feature dry weather, flow will be light nw or even ne at the surface. Swell will stick around Tuesday and start to wind down. Another large storm is taking aim at us for Thursday to Saturday - with more rain, wind and probably a large swell train to arrive after the main rain event. So next 48 hrs will probably be your best window to get some surf. Cya in the water.

LARGE SWELL MONDAY/RAIN ALL WEEKEND

Deep water swell running 6ft at 12 from 300 this morning and 1.8 at 17 from 195. Large and powerful storm is lining up for arrival late Saturday/through Sunday - with a plume of moisture stretching all the way across the Pacific to Asia. Depending on where this storm comes ashore will determine how much rain we receive. North Bay looks to be the prime target with 2-4 inches of rain forecast. This storm is going to whip up a powerful West swell - which will come in on Monday - with deepwater heights in excess of 15ft. The first real significant swell of the Fall. We will have south winds right through Sunday changing to west/then northwest for Monday and Tuesday. A real messy start to the week. A brief break - and then looks like next week around Wednesday we'll have another series of storms hitting. Old Man Winter knocking early on our door. Keep an eye on the winds - know your spots and you might find some waves. Plenty of swell on tap for the next 5-7 days - just big changes in size day to day. cya in the water.

Rain and swell inbound

Sunset pic from the Mexican Coast last week.....but that seems so long ago now....We have inbound storms for Thursday to Sunday - so i would say get out and enjoy Wednesday if you can - probably the last nice wind/weather day we'll have. Onshore flow will pick up on Thursday - while the weekend is looking wet as a strong system comes ashore with rain very likely in the North Bay - lesser amounts south. Winds will veer ssw/to west from Thur/Sun - but wind speeds might not be that strong allowing for some sessions. Have to wait and see. Look for decent size 7-9ft from 15-13 seconds (290 to 300) from Thur/Sat - good for well overhead and bigger at nw facing breaks. Tracking a potentially extra large swell event for Monday/Tuesday (deepwater 17-18ft) but this is just a model forecast right now and only worth watching for confirmation as the weekend comes up. Tomorrow am for sure - get out and get some - mid period windswell in the water at 6ft 11-12 seconds. cya in the water.

Updated forecast Week of 10-18

Back from a week in southern Mexico chasing sw swells. Good times for sure. Around these parts very active storm pattern throughout the Pacific Basin will continue to send pulses of mid period wnw swells our way for shoulder to head high surf through Wednesday. Then, look for a larger wnw swell to charge the coast late Wednesday through Friday with deep water swell in the 6-10 ft range. Right now more storms and swells look to line up until the end of October. I'll update more mid week. Winds look light to variable for am sessions this week but probably onshore in the afternoons. Wind patterns are a bit unpredictable this week with so many low pressure systems offshore. Also looking at perhaps our first strong rain event of the fall for next weekend - will update that around Wednesday. Check the winds and know your breaks and you might find some fun waves this week. Cya in the water .

Weekend Forecast - Fun Surf, Nice conditions

New mid period swell filling in tonight - deep water at 3-4 ft at 11 from 300-320. Look for size to slowly increase over the next couple days - probably biggest Sunday/Monday when size at nw facing breaks will be overhead on the sets. Weather/wind pattern looks pretty nice, northeast to calm winds in the mornings. Warmer temps at the coast. Really ideal Fall conditions coming up. **i am off to Mexico to chase next weeks inbound SW swell action - so i won't update this blog until Monday Oct 18. Have a great weekend/week ahead - cya in the water.

Updated Forecast - wk of 10-4

Solid northwest swell continues this morning - 8 ft at 14 sec from 305. Winds unfortunately are howling out of the nw as we have a strong low pressure system descending upon us. Water temps tumbling some, down to 53 now. We have a slight chance of showers through mid week as the aforementioned low will drop down and park itself just south of Monterey for most of the week as a closed cut off low. This could bring us some southeast to offshore winds mid week. Look for strong swell to continue through the period from the n/nw and also a series of decent late season southwest swells as well. Plenty of swell on tap - just check the winds each day and know your breaks and you might get lucky. The pattern we're in this week is extremely unpredictable right now with the cut off low. They tend to have a mind of their own. One thing is for certain - we have plenty of surf. cya in the water.

Updated Forecast **SOLID LONG PERIOD

**FRIDAY AM - Just checked outer buoys - impressive long period swell from that extra tropical system - Ca Buoy showed 10 ft at 21 to 24 seconds last night. This energy is just showing way up north - 9ft at 20 seconds.

Solid nw swell still in the water this am - 8 + ft at 14 sec from 290. Still good for double overhead sets at nw facing breaks. Swell will wind down later today and Thursday. Long period forerunners from the extra tropical/typhoon swell may start to show at our more northern breaks late Thursday. This swell won't be quite as big as this past event due in part to the longer distance the swell will have traveled by the time it reaches our coast. Expect long lulls, but when the sets come - they will pack plenty of punch. This event will peak on Saturday with deep water swell in the 5-8 ft range with larger sets possible. Size and period will drop more on Sunday - but still be quite nice. Our heat wave breaks today - it's already much cooler at the coast and that trend will continue through the period. Fog at the coast in the mornings, light winds with more of an onshore flow in the afternoons. Plenty of waves to ride through Sunday. cya in the water.

Next swell loading up at SE Papa Buoy

Pretty solid swell hitting this morning. Winding down a bit this pm - but still around 8 ft at 12 seconds. Next swell is moving our way. SE Papa Buoy is showing 14-19 feet wtih periods in the 15-17 second range. This will be in here tomorrow morning for another large day of surf along nw facing breaks. Weather has been very tricky - dense fog at the coast yesterday and today - but has been pushed out quickly as high pressure continues to expand over the state. As the week goes on - we'll have a gradual cooling trend and a bit more onshore flow later in the week. But mornings look pretty nice for the next few days - with scorching hot temps inland. Looking out Friday to Sunday we'll have yet another long period nw swell (295-310) due in from an old typhoon that is presently extra tropical and moving through the West Pacific. This will be another well overhead event at nw facing breaks. Recap - plenty of swell all week - size will be up and down as different events fade, overlap, etc. NW facing breaks will have the most size all week. AM sessions look best for light winds. cya in the water.

Updated Forecast - "Big" headed our way

***SATURDAY NIGHT ***Next swell showing at outer SE Papa Buoy - 20 ft at 15 seconds. 450 miles out and tracking our way.....get ready.

First swell peaked overnight - a bit quicker than expected - deep water down to 4-5 at 11 seconds. The main event(s) - now slated for Sunday night through Tuesday. Two very strong swells headed our way. First one will be in here as mentioned late Sunday - might see a few forerunners very late in the afternoon. By Monday - look for deep water heights in the 8-12ft range 14-17 seconds. This will be good for double, triple, perhaps bigger sets at the nw facing breaks. This swell will be fading some Tuesday morning, however a new swell will quickly overlap. Next event forecast in the 6-10ft range, long periods etc. Some of the warmest days in recent memory start today and should last through the middle of next week. Very light offshore flow forecast all the way to the coast. We might see a very light sea breeze afternoons - but no fog. cya in the water.

Large Swell for the Weekend

First significant northwest swell of the season due in Sunday through Tuesday......
**WED UPDATE - Friday swell just starting to show at SE Papa Buoy - 9-10 ft at 15-17 second intervals. Look for swell decay inbound, but should roll in Friday with size forecast as predicted below.

Back to back northwest swells start Friday. First shot is forecast in the 4-5 ft range from 300+ with mid periods in the 13-15 second range. This should be good for solid overhead waves at good northwest exposures Friday and Saturday. **Late Sunday, the real juice rolls in - forecast at 11-12 ft at 16 sec from 295. This will be well overhead to double overhead (perhaps bigger) at northwest breaks. **Note this swell will actually be biggest and best Monday. At the same time, we're going to have near perfect Fall weather - very warm temps to the coast (hot inland) - and some form of light offshore flow as high pressure sets up to our east on Saturday, and then moves a bit more northeast for Sunday. Today - nw winds are howling and it looks like spring - tomorrow will be a transition day, but I suspect the ocean will still have quite a bit of lump and bump on it. Friday morning should begin to see a clean up. cya in the water.

NW swells and warm weather at weeks end

Small nw pulse peaking today - buoys showing 4-6 ft at 14 sec 290/300. Period drops tomorrow and swell fades out Wednesday. Windswell will be on the rise again - Tues/Wed as another low pressure system approaches the Pacific Northwest. This will increase the fog and onshore push. I'm tracking back to back nw swells for Sept 24 to Sept 28. Timing will be great as it looks like the end of the week thru the weekend will be sunny and warm - with perhaps some very light offshore flow all the way to the coast. A fall pattern is taking hold in the upper reaches of the North Pacific. Tues/Wed look like good days to get some work done, play with the kids, have dinner with the girlfriend/wife - and then get busy with some good surf weather come weeks end. cya in the water.

Updated Weekend Forecast***

Solid pulsing south swell filling in today/tonight. Came in with a bit more steam than forecast - super solid - 3.5 to 4 ft at 17sec (deepwater). Not showing at all spots equally strong - but some spots we're just going off this morning. We also have a mix of west swell - so beach breaks will probably stay peaky on Sunday. Look for sets a couple feet overhead at times. Storm slowed down some - but scheduled to roll through late tonight - very light amounts of rain expected. Look for light/variable winds Sunday morning - turning light west later in the day. **We also have our first northwest groundswell of the season due in here Monday/Tuesday. Right now looking at 4ft at 15 sec from 290 - Monday, period dropping to 13 seconds on Tuesday. So plenty of swell the next 2-3 days - winds not horrible either - especially in the morning. go surf - cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast/North Pacific Gets Busier

Low pressure system offshore scheduled to roll in here late tomorrow. Rain still looks likely from late Friday through Sunday - fairly light amounts the further south you go (south of the GG Bridge) - but north bay areas might see a half inch of rain. Further to our north this storm will be a good soaker. Just seeing a small pulse of West swell from this system today - 2-3 at 8-12 seconds - mixed in with a pulse of south swell - 2-3 at 15-17 seconds. Winds are onshore - but lighter this morning than they've been. Look for West swell to increase over the weekend - probably maxing out in the 4-6 ft range (deep water swell) at 8-11 seconds. South will max over the weekend too - staying around 3ft. As for the winds - look for light sw winds Friday, light south winds on Saturday and perhaps variable winds on Sunday morning. Further out in the Pacific - just passing under the Aleutians coming out of the Bering Sea - a stronger system is starting to take shape and aim at Nor Cal. This system will bring us our first "groundswell" of the early season. Nothing huge or epic - but longer period wnw swell than we've seen around these parts in a long while. I'll update that swell over the weekend. This event looks to run from around Sept 23 thru Sept 28 - swell from 299 to 304 degrees. So plenty of swell on tap the next couple days - check the winds, know your spots and you might score. cya in the water.

Here comes the rain....

Early season fall storm gathering strength offshore - slated to roll in here Friday thru Sunday. Look for rain potentially on and off starting Friday in the North Bay dragging south thru the Bay Area Sat/Sun. Still unclear on how much swell will come in with the weather - and also how much wind. More on that Wednesday/Thursday. Still tracking a good size south swell for late in the week too. Let's hope the winds don't hack it up. It's a good sign - things are starting to move in the North Pacific. Anticipating that first really good shot of groundswell - hopefully soon. cya in the water.

Forecast for Week Ahead

Watching two low pressure systems develop this week - one in the NE Pacific and the other out near the dateline. First system is fairly weak - but may generate some longer period windswell from the nw for later in the week. The next system - out west near the dateline is suppose to gain strength Wednesday to Friday of this week - and perhaps generate some mid period (12-14 sec) nw swell for the weekend. In addition to these systems - we have a decent shot of s/sw swell most of the week - getting bigger Thursday thru Saturday with peak deep water swell at 3ft 15-17 seconds. Probably best late Friday into Saturday. Unfortunately - we're back in a summer wind/fog pattern all week with w/wsw winds each day (all day) perhaps morning sessions will offer the "lightest" winds. Possible chance of rain next weekend too - but amounts to be super light. Watch the winds - surf early - more on the action in the North Pacific mid week. cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Fog and onshore winds the rule today, with perhaps patchy fog over the weekend. Wind forecast is calling for "light to variable" winds Friday, Saturday and Sunday mornings. Just not much swell to go with it. Looks like windswell from 315 plus thru the period - short period (9 sec) stuff - maybe knee to chest high. Background traces of south swell. Long term looks a bit more promising from the south - with a swell forecast to start showing next Monday and perhaps lasting a few days into the week. The North Pacific is trying to get the party going - but high pressure is really locked down on the Pacific Basin - so everything that tracks west is getting shoved up into Alaska and then down through British Columbia. No real water trajectory - means no groundswell. However, the pattern continues to look more promising - just need something to kick into higher gear and get our Fall started in earnest. Hang in there, cya in the water.

North and West Pacific Wake Up

Hope you enjoyed the past couple days of fine beach weather. We're already transitioning back to strong onshore winds as a low pressure system drops down today out of BC. This is an unseasonably strong low - and will drop temps as much as 20 degrees today and further cooling tomorrow. Chance of light rain/drizzle (especially at the coast) on Wednesday. In the long range - Tropical Storm Malou out in the West Pac is forecast to get caught in the westerlies and perhaps bring us some swell and weather our way - perhaps another 5-7 days out. But the overall pattern is getting more progressive - so hopefully we'll see some groundswell soon. For this week - it looks pretty windy/onshore. Small windswell and nothing from the south. Good week to get caught up on work. cya in the water.

**Updated Labor Day Weekend

nw winds howling - windswell quickly building in size today. Winds are now forecast to turn offshore late today and for the morning. We'll see if that happens. If it does turn, could be nice Monday morning with the increasing windswell. But for today - i'd say find someplace protected, but anything south facing is going to be pretty small due to the short period nature of the swell. get what you can - cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Nice pulse of NW windswell tonight - 4ft at 10 from 320. First time we've seen anything above 9 sec interval from the north in while. Past two days, pretty damn nice at the beach. Look for another morning of light/variable winds Friday. Fog is moving back towards us - and may be patchy in spots Friday morning. Look for more onshore/fog Saturday and Sunday - but we could still see light/variable winds (with fog) Saturday morning - more west in the winds for Sunday. Same thing on Labor Day/Monday. Swell wise - windswell the main source for the next few days - shoulder to head high, perhaps bigger at times at nw facing breaks. Very small south background swell to continue. We could see a warm up and return to some light offshore flow early next week. More on that late in the weekend. Still no sign of any significant swell in the North Pacific - however i am watching Typhoon 08w tracking NW past Japan on Friday - due to curve and go extratropical over the weekend. Pretty certain we won't get much swell from this system - but going to watch it. It's a good sign. The active phase of the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is trying to get a toe hold in the far West Pacific. This is the pump that fuels Fall and Winter storm development - something we saw a lot of last winter with El Nino. With La Nina in force, we've been in the "inactive" phase of the MJO for months now - but with the change in the seasons, the pattern can change, break down. One thing is for certain - we have better days ahead in the months to come. cya in the water.

September 1

Welcome to the 2010/2011 Fall/Winter surf season! Right on cue - we have a couple offshore mornings ahead - now we just need some actual swell. Tomorrow looks like the warmest day of the week - especially at the coast. Look for ongoing north windwell and a small pulse of s/se swell which i dont think will show much due to the extreme angle of approach - 165-180. Warm today - winds might stay light most of the day - warmer still tomorrow - maybe a hint of a seabreeze late. Give yourself a pat on the back for surviving another summer in Central/Nor Cal. cya in the water.

Week Ahead

Almost Sept 1 - the official start to the Fall/Winter surfing season in Northern California. It's like Christmas for those of us who have endured a long, foggy, onshore summer. Winds are going to cooperate with the turning of the calendar month too - with light offshore flow (**mornings) forecast Wednesday and Thursday. Very small surf on tap - minimal south swell and north windswell. All eyes to the North Pacific for any hint of a significant pattern change and some swell producing storms. Watching the models for perhaps a low pressure system to get busy next weekend - but that's just hopeful thinking for the moment. We are going into a season ruled by La Nina. We may see less storm development in the West Pacific and more storms in the higher latitudes of the East Pacific as they come around blocking high pressure. This means higher angle swells (300-330), probably fewer large days like we had last season. But La Nina can mean very good surfing conditions with offshore winds for days. Colder weather, less rain (not good). We'll have to see how things unfold. In the meantime, get out and enjoy the nice weather and i'll keep you posted on any developments. cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

**Great news SE Papa Buoy and CA Buoys are back online for the winter. Just in time! Look for s/sw swell to continue through the weekend - probably in the shoulder high range at most breaks - perhaps bigger sets now and then. NW windswell will be on the rise tomorrow - as NW winds increase offshore. Looking for this windswell to peak Saturday with head high, bigger at times - but conditions will likely be a mess at nw facing breaks Sat/Sun due to the wind. Low pressure is moving down from the Gulf of Alaska - and with it winds and fog will increase. This system will be out of here by early next week - and we might see a warm up next Tuesday - but right now it doesn't look like an offshore/hot event like this past event. Definitely seeing an early Autumn pattern starting to take shape - which is a good sign. No swell producing storms yet - but September is getting closer so should see things change even more in the upper latitudes as we move into the month. Check the winds this weekend - pick your surf breaks accordingly. ***FRIDAY - UPDATE - Storm inbound Saturday - NW winds have already approached gale force speeds in our outer waters. Chance of rain late Saturday - super light amounts. cya in the water.

Good weather fades, Significant South hits

Hope you got out in the past 2 days - it was sick. Significant south swell just starting to show this morning - deep water already 3ft plus at 190-200 - look for this swell to build during the day - probably peaking tomorrow with deepwater heights in the 5ft range - large for around these parts! Unfortunately - southern surge of fog and winds is presently moving north from Monterey. Offshore flow is gone for now. Look for onshore winds and fog to return over the next few days. By the weekend - a very early season gulf low will drop down out of BC - lowering inland temps by 30 degrees over the past couple of days - and bringing with it a very slight chance of drizzle/rain. So winds will probably stay west/northwest from Thursday on. But get to places that like big souths and have some protection from the winds and you might just score. Cya in the water.

It's ON!

Sunny at the beaches this afternoon with light winds - when was the last time anyone saw that?? South swell peaking today - some nice size in the water - still running 3ft at 17 (deepwater swell). Will wind down tomorrow. Bigger south hits Tues-Thurs - with sets head high + at breaks with a s/sw exposure. Next two days look like sick beach days - with the warmest Tuesday - with EAST WINDS forecast. Hot inland, warm to the coast - yes there is a God and he likes Nor Cal surfers in the Fall. Do enjoy this upcoming couple days as we're going to cool off again late in the week with a return to fog and onshore winds. We might still be lucky on Wednesday. cya in the water.

Update - Offshore Winds Mon/Tues

Winds are howling tonight. Blowing northwest - turning northerly during the day on Sunday. Early season storm moved through the Pac NW and is now moving into the northern Great Basin. This will shift the winds offshore for Monday/Tuesday with much warmer temps. In fact probably the warmest it's been since Mid June. Still hard to say if this wind event will make it all the way to the coast - and give us our first offshore of the early Fall. For sure the fog will be scoured out - have to wait and see. South swell is peaking tonight/Sunday - 3-4 ft at 17 sec (deepwater). Mix of north windswell in the water tomorrow too - 3-5 at 8-10 secs. It could be a total mess at OB in the morning with the winds. If the gradient relaxes overnight - it might be marginally clean early - but the smart money is on a big mess. The sun might be out - so you can't have it all - at least not yet......Pattern will go back to fog and gloom after Wednesday - so dont get too excited. This is just a teaser of hopefully better weather to come as we move into September. Sept 1 is normally the official start to the Fall surf season in Nor Cal. Not tracking any gulf storms yet. Just more south swell and windswell most of next week. Check the winds, surf early. cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Surf early. I sound like a broken record but onshore winds the rule this weekend with fog and cool temps at the coast. South swell through Sunday with some decent size at times. That nw windswell event didn't materialize as forecast for size but there will be some windswell in the water. Could see some offshore flow next Monday and Tuesday! More on that event Sunday. Cya in th water.

Week Ahead

More images from Mexico. Rest assured it wont be like that around here anytime soon. High pressure remains in control in the Pacific Basin. Expect fog all week with onshore winds - lightest (if you can call it that) in the mornings. There is a chance this high pressure blocker will move further West - which might enable some storms to rise up and over the ridge and get into the Great Basin. This is the first time the models have hinted at this set up - which is usually the rumblings of an early Autumn pattern change. I wouldn't count on it just yet - wait to see how things pan out for the rest of the week.

Swell wise - next south/southwest due in here Friday to Monday. Forecasted deep water heights in the 2-4 ft range at 195-200. NW windswell will be on the rise late in the week too - with forecasted heights going into the 10-11 ft range at 9 secs from 324. if that comes to pass it will knock the piss out of the south swell as it moves north. Could see a better run of south swell starting Aug 24 - Aug 28 - more on that event later in the week. Between now and the weekend - small, gutless surf prevails.
cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

Small storm earlier this week tracked underneath the Aleutian Chain with 25kt winds. We'll see a tiny increase in surf from that storm Fri-Sun - but really it will just reinforce the existing windswell that will be in the water. Looking for 4-5ft at 9 from 320 at the offshore buoys - so considerably smaller near shore. Weather models have been hinting all week at a pattern shift in the upper atmosphere to give us warmer temps and relief from the steady fog and onshore winds. If that comes to pass - we might see the beginning of this on Sunday - lasting into next week. Much warmer temps inland, however it's not an offshore wind event - so we might only see the marine layer compress near the coast and burn off earlier in the day. **IF this happens at all! Patterns such as the one we've been in are very persistent and take a lot of energy to break down. Not sure i'm buying it - but we'll see. What we might see are much lighter winds in the mornings over the weekend. I still suspect some onshore/south wind on Saturday, perhaps light/variable Sunday morning. It's a very unpredictable set up at the moment. Nothing in the Tropics worth noting - could see some added storm development in the North Pacific mid to late next week - and a decent looking (on the models) south swell Aug 20 thru Aug 24. Check the winds, surf early. cya in the water.

Some faint signs.....

Mind surf this one! From my friends south of the border. How sweet does that look? Should last me until October. Far cry from the 1ft mush I drove 2 hours for yesterday.

Just a tease of a Fall pattern trying to get a toe hold in the upper reaches of the North Pacific. One storm dropping down out of BC today, which on a different trajectory could make it to the Great Basin and give us offshore flow - however, it's dropping straight down the West Coast and will form a cut off low - further enhancing this sweet weather we're having for the week ahead. By the weekends, models hint at a bit of a warm up - but we'll see. I don't buy it. By Friday, a Gulf low is forecast to track south of the Aleutians and push towards the West Coast. Because of the approach, no swell forecast for us from this system - but it's a good sign if it comes to pass. Want to see more of that as we move through the month. Tropical Storm Estelle is way south of Baja - but unlikely to strengthen or move into our swell window for anything to result.

Swell wise - it's shite this week. Not much south swell and minimal windswell. Winds look to stay as they've been - onshore, messy, ugly. You might get lucky somewhere for morning sessions if the winds are down. Otherwise, it's just desperation surfing.
Cya in the water.

Weekend Forecast

South swell filling in late today/tonight - right now 1.7 at 17 from 180+. Winds are light - but still onshore. Blowing 5kt from the south at OB - light northwest winds towards Bodega Bay. South swell will probably peak at 3ft deepwater - Sat/Sun. Morning winds will stay light onshore (sound like a broken record at this point). SW/W winds - you guys all know the usual deal with fog at the coast. Current weather pattern looks to stay locked in for the next 7-10 days. Hopefully by December we'll get some offshore/sunny days at the beach. ha. Nothing going on in the Gulf of Alaska - and after this south swell - things looks pretty marginal through mid August - as in no rideable real surf. Get what you can and don't be too picky. cya in the water.

The Summer That Wasn't

Cool, foggy conditions look the norm for the next 7-10 days. August could potentially be the 5th month in a row with below average temps for the entire region. Blocking high pressure - one to our north - and another out in the West Pacific is keeping the overall long wave pattern overhead stagnant. This is why we have fog each day with not much change. Low pressure stays parked to our southwest. This pattern is also keeping the northern branch of the jetstream fragmented. Until the jet consolidates with some decent wind energy we won't see much of a shift - in our weather - or early Fall storm development. Keeping an eye on it however. For this week - same old story - background southern hemi swells and nw windswell. Fog every morning (and lasting all day at many coast locations). Winds may be lightest in the mornings - but that's not saying much. Onshore winds the rule.